Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 10:38:51 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Nov 17, 2015 8:37:05 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

Strange, but true fact: You, @markg94, Josh Spicer, MTSChart21, Mikel Echarri, billboardfan1, and I all came from the same place: Testee's 50 and HR Chart.

Dang. That is strange. I still watch HRChart's Hot 100 vids each week and still comment regularly.

and me, well I came from BillboardGoddess first then to 5thCent then to HrChart.

Anyways Ill have my predictions up next week.

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 12:16:08 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Nov 17, 2015 12:02:28 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

TOP HOT 100 ARTISTS OF 2015

03 2435840 DRAKE
05 1826050 NICKI MINAJ
07 1635150 MARK RONSON
     1635150 BRUNO MARS
12 1298270 CHARLIE PUTH

I was under the impression that co-credits and features don't get the artists as many points as a lead credit (I think it's 1/2 points for the feature & and 1/[# of cocredits] for a cocredit).

Otherwise these wouldn't have happened last year

58 A Great Big World
59 Christina Aguilera [both rather low positions since they only get half points from one song]
95 Rita Ora [Aside from I Will Never Let You Down, Black Widow was the main points driver but didn't get her whole points for sure]
97 Jessie J. [Bang Bang was giant, but I believe she only got 1/3 points for it]

Oh ok.  That makes sense.  So Drake and Nicki (among others) are going to take a big hit then.

[Daniel Collins]

^The ratio for lead to feature is about ~70/30. Would be divided depends on how many lead or feature the song has.

[Deleted]

Daniel whens your list gonna be ready?

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 12:53:52 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Daniel whens your list gonna be ready?

I hate to be rude, but Daniel already said earlier that he had computer problems and that life also became a bigger priority for him. 

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 12:53:52 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Daniel whens your list gonna be ready?

And I also hate to be rude, but why not just get your predictions together and post them rather than worrying about everyone else?  

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 13:12:39 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

Nov 17, 2015 12:53:52 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Daniel whens your list gonna be ready?

And I also hate to be rude, but why not just get your predictions together and post them rather than worrying about everyone else?  

I do have a life as well. Im on Week 48s right now, so I should be done by them next week, and atm I am in college. When I am home and have a 2 hour free time, I work on my predictions. Some of my predictions are the same or about the same as yours, and some of them are off by 5 or even 10 positions.

[Deleted]

^ not surprised that yours is similar to mine. take your time, live your life, but please read posts before submitting posts that already have the info you're looking for... as that is a waste of your (and our) precious time.

[Deleted]

It is not completely similar to yours, well some are, and some arent. We will see.

[velaxti]

Nov 17, 2015 12:39:40 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

^The ratio for lead to feature is about ~70/30. Would be divided depends on how many lead or feature the song has.

I believe it's 75% for the leads and 25% for the features (for songs without features 100% goes to the leads).

So Mark Ronson gets 75% of Uptown Funk!, Bruno Mars gets 25%.

Ed Sheehan gets 100% of Thinking Out Loud.

Major Lazer and DJ Snake get 37.5% of Lean On each, whilst M0 gets 25%.

Nicki Minaj gets 75% of Truffle Butter, Drake and Lil Wayne get 12.5% each.

Drake and Future get 50% each of Jumpman.

and so on.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Nov 17, 2015 8:37:05 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

Nov 17, 2015 7:28:22 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Your chart also brought me here!

Final week! So excited to see what everyone's predictions are, and how close everyone is :)

Strange, but true fact: You, @markg94, Josh Spicer, MTSChart21, Mikel Echarri, billboardfan1, and I all came from the same place: Testee's 50 and HR Chart.

I also found my way here from those two chart channels (you've probably seen the doge with the rainbow background).

[Josh Spicer]

Nov 17, 2015 11:58:10 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

Nov 17, 2015 11:56:17 GMT -5 Josh Spicer said:

I don't know how you knew that, but you're 100% right.

You commented on my comment about why I originally hated Habits when I posted my opinions of the 2014 YE Hot 100 over on the Testee 50. When you first came here, it took me a little time to recognize you.

Also, I don't know if I ever told you, but you have a unique taste in music. Not my cup of tea unfortunately, but it's not bad at all.

Requoted for add-on edit

Thank you. My music ranges from about every corner music has and I like a lot of different stuff.

The same metaphor/symbolism applies to whether I think a song is crap or not.

[bobbybob]

What range of points on this prediction would you say has the highest chance of having songs switch spots?

[Deleted]

Nov 19, 2015 15:58:45 GMT -5 bobbybob said:

What range of points on this prediction would you say has the highest chance of having songs switch spots?

honestly, i expect a lot of spot switching throughout the majority of my chart - i'm just hoping there's nothing majorly off.  i feel like the upper portion of my predictions (top 10-15-20) is probably the range that i'm most confident about.

[bobbybob]

I mean in terms of a difference in points between 2+ songs. Around how many points would you consider it close enough to be most likely to switch?

[Deleted]

Nov 19, 2015 16:26:52 GMT -5 bobbybob said:

I mean in terms of a difference in points between 2+ songs. Around how many points would you consider it close enough to be most likely to switch?

I honestly don't know.  The problem is if a weekly estimate is off, it can potentially really add up over time, making my prediction really inaccurate in some cases.  Potentially.  I'm just looking for things to be in the right general area/order.  Being one or two positions off is fine with me, tbh.  I'm not approaching this with any expectations of being super accurate, so I don't want to give that impression.

[mamooshka]

Completely off topic ... are you really a vegan? Is that the reason for your avatar?

Attachment Deleted

[Deleted]

haha no i'm not a vegan. it's a life long nickname, which is a play off my real first name.

[Deleted]

Guess what everyone. My predictions are set. Tell me what you think.

1. Marc Ronson/Bruno Mars - Uptown Funk
2. Ed Sheeran - Thinking Out Loud
3. Wiz Khalifa - See You Again
4. Fetty Wap - Trap Queen
5. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up & Dance
6. Maroon 5 - Sugar
7. Taylor Swift - Blank Space
8. The Weeknd - Earned It
9. Silento - Watch Me
10. OMI - Cheerleader
11. The Weeknd - The Hills
12. The Weeknd - Cant Feel My Face
13. Taylor Swift - Shake It Off
14. Ellie Goulding - Love Me Like You Do
15. Hozier - Take Me To Church
16. Jason Derulo - Want To Want Me
17. Major Lazer - Lean On
18. Skrillex/Justin Bieber - Where Are U Now
19. Meghan Trainor - All About That Bass
20. Taylor Swift - Bad Blood
21. Sam Smith - Im Not The Only One
22. Meghan Trainor - Lips Are Movin
23. Omarion - Post To Be
24. Rachel Platten - Fight Song
25. 5th Harmony - Worth It
26. Fetty Wap - 679
27. Andy Grammer - Honey, Im Good
28. Taylor Swift - Style
29. Flo Rida - GDFR
30. Justin Bieber - What Do You Mean
31. Selena Gomez - Good For You
32. Drake - Hotline Bling
33. Sam Hunt - Take Your Time(it had a great chart run, so Idk why you have it like 15 spots below me)
34. Ed Sheeran - Photograph
35. Tove Lo - Talking Body
36. Nick Jonas - Jealous
37. Pitbull - Time Of Our Lives
38. David Guetta/Nicki Minaj - Hey Mama
39. Adele - Hello
40. Fall Out Boy - Centuries
41. Shawn Mendes - Stitches
42. Sia - Elastic Heart(same reason as TYT why I have it higher than you)
43. Natalie La Rose - Somebody
44. R. City - Locked Away
45. Rihanna - 4 5 Seconds
46. Maroon 5 - Animals
47. Rihanna - Bitch Better Have My Money
48. Rich Homie Quan - Flex
49. Nicki Minaj - Only
50. Big Sean - I Dont Fuck With You
51. Usher - I Dont Mind
52. Fetty Wap - My Way
53. Ariana Grande - Love Me Harder
54. Taylor Swift - Wildest Dreams
55. Sam Smith - Stay With Me
56. Selena Gomez - The Heart Wants What It Wants
57. T-Wayne - Nasty Freestyle
58. Vance Joy - Riptide(see Elastic Heart and Take Your Time)
59. X Ambassadors - Renegades
60. Beyonce - 7/11
61. Trey Songz - Slow Motion
62. Fall Out Boy - Uma Thurman
63. Demi Lovato - Cool For The Summer
64. Nicki Minaj - Truffle Butter
65. DJ Snake/AlunaGeorge - You Know You Like It
66. Little Big Town - Girl Crush
67. Ariana Grande - One Last Time
68. Nick Jonas - Chains
69. Rae Sremmurd - No Type
70. Meek Mill - All Eyes On You
71. One Direction - Drag Me Down
72. Chris Brown/Tyga - Ayo
73. Tove Lo - Habits
74. Meghan Trainor - Dear Future Husband
75. Big Sean - Blessings
76. Sam Smith - Lay Me Down
77. Jidenna - Classic Man
78. OT Genasis - CoCo
79. Sia - Chandelier
80. Charlie Puth - Marvin Gaye
81. Meghan Trainor - Like Im Gonna Lose You
82. Elle King - Exs & Ohs
83. Kelly Clarkson - Heartbeat Song
84. Macklemore - Downtown
85. Jessie J - Bang Bang
86. The Hanging Tree
87. Sam Hunt - House Party
88. George Ezra - Budapest
89. Luke Bryan - Kick The Dust Up
90. One Direction - Night Changes
91. I LOVE MAKONNEN - Tuesday
92. Ella Henderson - Ghost
93. ILoveMemphis(@iheartmemphis) - Hit The Quan
94. Ed Sheeran - Dont
95. Ne-Yo - She Knows
96. Lilly Wood - Prayer In C
97. Mr. Probz - Waves
98. Blake Shelton - Sangria
99. Zac Brown Band - Homegrown
100. Drake - Back To Back
______________________________________________

101. Calvin Harris - How Deep Is Your Love
102. Alessia Cara - Here
103. Thomas Rhett - Crash And Burn
104. Kid Ink - Be Real
105. Justin Bieber - Sorry
106. Zedd/Selena Gomez - I Want You To Know
107. Calvin Harris/Ellie Goulding - Outside
108. Chris Janson - Buy Me A Boat
109. Rae Sremmurd - Throw Sum Mo
110. Imagine Dragons - I Bet My Life
111. Maroon 5 - This Summers Gonna Hurt
112. Future - Where Ya At
113. Future/Drake - Jumpman
114. Keith Urban - John Cougar, John Deere, John 3 16
115. Fetty Wap - Again
116. Enrique Iglesias/Nicky Jam - El Perdon(Idk why you all have it too high, it was charting very low in most of its run)
117. Luke Bryan - Strip It Down
118. Jeremih - Planes

After Planes, theres a huge drop off in point difference to Bright by Echosmith which is 119.

What do you all think?

[Dylan :)]

The top 40 looks accurate to me (I have no idea what it'll be like down there), but the comments you had on Take Your Time, Elastic Heart, etc, did you add points and boost their position based on how you feel they did in the chart run?

[Deleted]

No I did every songs points accurately and Elastic Hearts, Riptides, and Take Your Times ended up being much higher than brocollis, and El Perdons ended up being much lower.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

SHAKE IT OFF CAN'T BE IN TOP 15, ALL ABOUT THAT BASS CAN'T BE IN TOP 20

[Deleted]

yeah, that prediction won't be very accurate in comparison to the actual list. Billboard's methodology is completely different from what you think you know. I believe broccoli's prediction more.

[Deleted]

Look at Taylor getting her lucky number with the same song in both 2014 and 2015! It must have truly been huge at the beginning of this year...I guess I kinda see the point people make when they say they don't agree with Billboard's cutoff dates for year-end charts. SIO certainly did not feel as big in 2015 as Can't Feel My Face and All About That Bass did not feel nearly as big as Lean On in 2015 either. Just feels like SIO and AATB had well over half their popularity in 2014 IMO.

[Deleted]

Nov 25, 2015 17:22:12 GMT -5 @billboardfan1 said:

yeah, that prediction won't be very accurate in comparison to the actual list. Billboard's methodology is completely different from what you think you know. I believe broccoli's prediction more.

I was actually accurate or about accurate on few songs that you and Daniel messed up on last year. We will see. I wasnt perfect on mine last year and wont be this year either, but I feel like my predictions this year could be a bit more accurate than last year. Who knows. Cant wait to see Daniels and others predictions if he or you all do any.

[Deleted]

Nov 25, 2015 17:34:20 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Look at Taylor getting her lucky number with the same song in both 2014 and 2015! It must have truly been huge at the beginning of this year...I guess I kinda see the point people make when they say they don't agree with Billboard's cutoff dates for year-end charts. SIO certainly did not feel as big in 2015 as Can't Feel My Face and All About That Bass did not feel nearly as big as Lean On in 2015 either. Just feels like SIO and AATB had well over half their popularity in 2014 IMO.

which is why they're charting lower this year. I just ignore them and don't consider them hit songs from this year, they were still pretty popular at the start of the year, but that happens, and they're really just holdovers from the last year end charts, which is why whenever I see a song that repeats, unless they finish higher, I just ignore them as hits for the year. And "Can't Feel My Face" was certainly huge, it was definately all over the radio during the summer just like "Lean On" and it was clearly the year of The Weeknd. 

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Nov 21, 2015 17:53:28 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

haha no i'm not a vegan. it's a life long nickname, which is a play off my real first name.

You're Clayton 75 in ukmix?

[tucomrang]

I was bored so I made this prediction. It didn't base on any point system, just me putting songs on the list because I think they were worth it to make the cut

1. Uptown Funk – Mark Ronson & Bruno Mars
2. Thinking Out Loud – Ed Sheeran
3. See You Again – Wiz Khalifa & Charlie Puth
4. Trap Queen – Fetty Wap
5. Blank Space – Taylor Swift
6. Sugar – Maroon 5
7. Earn It – The Weeknd
8. Shut Up And Dance – Walk Off The Moon
9. Watch Me – Silentó
10. Cheerleader – OMI

11. The Hills – The Weeknd
12. Take Me To Church – Hozier
13. Can’t Feel My Face - The Weeknd
14. Love Me Like You Do – Ellie Goulding
15. Bad Blood – Taylord
16. Lean On - Major Lazer & DJ Snake
17. Want To Want Me – Jason Derulo
18. Shake It Off – the lord once again
19. Lips Are Movin – Meghan Trainor
20. Where Are Ü Now – Skrillex, Diplo & Justin Bieber

21. I’m Not The Only One – Sam Smith
22. All About That Bass – Meghan Trainor
23. Fight Song – Rachel Platten
24. Style – Taylord one more time
25. Good For You – Selena Gomez and random rapper
26. Honey I’m Good – Andy Grammer
27. What Do You Mean – Justin Bieber
28. Post To Be – Omarion, Chris Brown & Jhene Aiko
29. Hotline Bling – Drake
30. 679 – Fetty Wap

31. Hello – Adele
32. GDFR – Flo Rida & some random people
33. Worth It – Fifth Hamorny & Kid Ink
34. Stitches – Shawn Mendes
35. Hey Mama – David Guetta & Nicki Minaj
36. Jealous – Nick Jonas
37. Photograph – Ed Sheeran
38. Time Of Our Lives – Pitbull & Neyo
39. FourFiveSecond – Rihanna, Kanye West & Paul McCartney
40. Talking Body – Tove Lo

41. Somebody - Natalie La Rose & Jeremih
42. Centeries – Fall Out Boys
43. My Way – Fetty Wap
44. Animals – Maroon 5
45. Take Your Time – Sam Hunt
46. Locked Away – R.City & Adam Lavine
47. I Don’t f**k With You – Big Sean & E40
48. Only – Nicki Minaj, Chris Brown & Lil Wayne
49. Wildest Dream – Taylor Swift
50. Love Me Harder – Ariana Grande

51. I Don’t Mind – Usher & Juicy J
52. Renegades - X Ambassadors
53. Nasty Freestyle – T Wayne
54. Elastic Heart – Sia
55. Stay With Me – Sam Smith
56. Bitch Better Have My Money – Rihanna
57. The Heart Wants What It Wants – Selena Gomez
58. Cool For The Summer – Demi Lovato
59. 7/11 – Beyoncé
60. You Know You Like It - DJ Snake & AlunaGeorge

61. Truffle Butter – Nicki Minaj, Drake & Lil Wayne
62. Girl Crush – Little Big Town
63. One Last Time – Ariana Grande
64. Chains – Nick Jonas
65. Slow Motion – Trey Songz
66. Uma Thurman – Fall Out Boys
67. No Type - Rae Sremmurd
68. Riptide – Vance Joy
69. Classic Man - Jidenna & Roman GianArthur
70. Habits (Stay High) – Tove Lo

71. Dear Future Husband – Meghan Trainor
72. Bang Bang – Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
73. The Hanging Tree – Jennifer Lawrence
74. Like I’m Gonna Lose You – Meghan Trainor & John Legend
75. Drag Me Down – One Direction
76. Tuesday – ILOVEMAKONNEN & Drake
77. Coco - O.T. Genasis
78. Flex (Ooh Ooh Ooh) – Rich Homie Quan
79. All Eyes On You - Meek Mill, Nicki Minaj & Chris Brown
80. Lay Me Down – Sam Smith

81. Marvin Gaye – Charlie Puth & Meghan Trainor
82. Ayo – Chris Brown & Tyga
83. Blessing – Big Sean, Drake & Kanye West
84. Ex’s & Oh’s – Elle King
85. Budapest - George Ezra
86. Chanderlie – Sia
87. Don’t – Ed Sheeran
88. Heartbeat Song – Kelly Clarkson
89. Ghost – Ella Henderson
90. House Party – Sam Hunt

91. Downtown – Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
92. Waves – Mr Probz
93. She Knows – Ne-Yo & Juicy J
94. Kick The Dust Up – Luke Bryan
95. Here - Alessia Caraa
96. Hit The Quan – iLoveMemphis
97. Sorry – Justin Bieber
98. Night Changes – One Direction
99. Prayer In C - Lilly Wood & The Prick and Robin Schulz
100. Where Ya At - Drake & Future

[jillboard100]

Jillboard101 will have the Top 100 Billboard Hot 100 Songs Of 2015 Year End video...

[Deleted]

@ tucoms predictions, no way Flex is that low.