willnower
Bubbling Under
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Posts: 19 
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Post by willnower on Nov 29, 2015 12:51:46 GMT -5
Does "Hello" by Adele really have a chance of making it on the year-end chart? Sure, it has done excellently in terms of chart performance and it even broke some records in a week. However, it was only on the chart for 3 weeks in Billboard's 2015 year, which is a really short time. No song has ever made it on the year-end chart after being on the chart for that short of a time. Will "Hello" by Adele have the chance of making it on the year-end chart, let alone in the top 50? Although I have some doubts, I think it has a chance of making it, but I'm not sure if it will make it as high as it is in many of your predictions.
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Post by chicken077 on Nov 29, 2015 13:11:13 GMT -5
When will the official 2015 year end chart come out? Next week or later?
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yuh yuh
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Post by yuh yuh on Nov 29, 2015 13:22:35 GMT -5
When will the official 2015 year end chart come out? Next week or later? I think week after next. |
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Post by purplefebruary on Nov 29, 2015 13:39:07 GMT -5
Does "Hello" by Adele really have a chance of making it on the year-end chart? Sure, it has done excellently in terms of chart performance and it even broke some records in a week. However, it was only on the chart for 3 weeks in Billboard's 2015 year, which is a really short time. No song has even made it on the year-end chart after being on the chart for that short of a time. Will "Hello" by Adele have the chance of making it on the year-end chart, let alone in the top 50? Although I have some doubts, I think it has a chance of making it, but I'm not sure if it will make it as high as it is in many of your predictions. Well, the song and its parent album has exceeded expectations by smashing records, it wouldn't be surprising if its record sales has resulted in a looooot of points even in just 3 weeks, it's already sold what most hits sell in 6 months.  |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 17:17:59 GMT -5
Hello will ABSOLUTELY will be on the year end chart. Every week a song achieves a point total based on all metrics... HELLO had 3 weeks of over 100k points, with approximately 380k points total. Most #1 songs only have about 40-45k weekly points on average. So, think of it like she had EIGHT average weeks at #1, because that's essentially what it equates to.
I still get the feeling that some people don't understand the methodology for the year end charts. Its all points. Just like the weekly hot 100 is all points. Not points achieved by number of weeks in the top 10, 20, 40, 50, or whatever... Just straight points achieved every week from the 3 metrics. Weekly ranks are merely the result of the points they earned, not the other way around. Obviously longevity will help any song rack up points, but massive metrics adding up to massive point totals are enough to do some major damage, regardless of longevity or number of weeks in a certain frame of the chart.
I'd love to know what specific point system everyone used to come up with their predictions. I'd then love to do a side by side with mine of a few songs to see how it holds up. Any takers?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 18:01:23 GMT -5
Broccoli, I can. But first, what did you think of my predictions?
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Post by chicken077 on Nov 29, 2015 20:01:16 GMT -5
Hello will ABSOLUTELY will be on the year end chart. Every week a song achieves a point total based on all metrics... HELLO had 3 weeks of over 100k points, with approximately 380k points total. Most #1 songs only have about 40-45k weekly points on average. So, think of it like she had EIGHT average weeks at #1, because that's essentially what it equates to. So basically Hello, in just three weeks, racked up roughly the same amount of points as Hey Mama and Jealous in their entire chart runs. Absolutely crazy... How well do you guys think Hello will do on the 2016 charts? |
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willnower
Bubbling Under
Joined: November 2015
Posts: 19
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Post by willnower on Nov 29, 2015 21:37:57 GMT -5
Hello will ABSOLUTELY will be on the year end chart. Every week a song achieves a point total based on all metrics... HELLO had 3 weeks of over 100k points, with approximately 380k points total. Most #1 songs only have about 40-45k weekly points on average. So, think of it like she had EIGHT average weeks at #1, because that's essentially what it equates to. I still get the feeling that some people don't understand the methodology for the year end charts. Its all points. Just like the weekly hot 100 is all points. Not points achieved by number of weeks in the top 10, 20, 40, 50, or whatever... Just straight points achieved every week from the 3 metrics. Weekly ranks are merely the result of the points they earned, not the other way around. Obviously longevity will help any song rack up points, but massive metrics adding up to massive point totals are enough to do some major damage, regardless of longevity or number of weeks in a certain frame of the chart. I'd love to know what specific point system everyone used to come up with their predictions. I'd then love to do a side by side with mine of a few songs to see how it holds up. Any takers?
I know that Billboard does not use an inverse point system, but I don't think any song has gotten as much points as "Hello" by Adele has in the same amount of time. 3 weeks and more than 300K points already. That's absolutely incredible. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 22:46:17 GMT -5
Broccoli, I can. But first, what did you think of my predictions? Since you asked what I think.... I've told you how I feel about your predictions a few times throughout the year. You've made it clear before that you use some kind of hybrid methodology of your own... not the point method that Billboard uses, so it renders your predictions as shaky guesswork to me. I can only assume you used my list on some level as a gauge, and don't have a database of all nearly 500 songs that have charted this year in a spreadsheet like I do. You speak of some huge drop-off after Echosmith, and I don't know how that's possible... it seems maybe you just stopped comparing those. If there is a steep drop off, elaborate! What's below it? What's the point gap? What's the breakdown of their assignment of points? Please give me/us a specific point breakdown of how you came to the conclusion of these 2 songs:
Take Your Time
PhotographPlease avoid saying things like "well this song spent this many weeks on the chart this year, or in the top 20, 40, 50... as that isn't relevant, and I'm fully aware of their chart runs, rank-wise and in terms of longevity. Give me a specific point breakdown and how you assigned those points. And then I'll show you my breakdown. I'm using these 2 because it doesn't make any sense to me in any way, logically, even given their trajectories... as I have more than a 60k point gap in favor of Photograph. Bear in mind, the average points for songs around #10 on the weekly chart are usually considerably higher than average point values at #20. BTW, I'm not saying my list is going to be more accurate. And I'm not saying you won't have some songs that fall into place, but knowing that your methodology in general is highly flawed by it's very nature... it's going to be because of luck and using other lists as a reference. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 22:47:40 GMT -5
Hello will ABSOLUTELY will be on the year end chart. Every week a song achieves a point total based on all metrics... HELLO had 3 weeks of over 100k points, with approximately 380k points total. Most #1 songs only have about 40-45k weekly points on average. So, think of it like she had EIGHT average weeks at #1, because that's essentially what it equates to. I still get the feeling that some people don't understand the methodology for the year end charts. Its all points. Just like the weekly hot 100 is all points. Not points achieved by number of weeks in the top 10, 20, 40, 50, or whatever... Just straight points achieved every week from the 3 metrics. Weekly ranks are merely the result of the points they earned, not the other way around. Obviously longevity will help any song rack up points, but massive metrics adding up to massive point totals are enough to do some major damage, regardless of longevity or number of weeks in a certain frame of the chart. I'd love to know what specific point system everyone used to come up with their predictions. I'd then love to do a side by side with mine of a few songs to see how it holds up. Any takers?
I know that Billboard does not use an inverse point system, but I don't think any song has gotten as much points as "Hello" by Adele has in the same amount of time. 3 weeks and more than 300K points already. That's absolutely incredible. Yeah, it's HUGE and unprecedented since I've been tracking weekly point estimates. So I understand it seems weird. But it's a lock for top 50, and I think it'll be in the top 40 according to my point spread in my final predictions. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 22:58:27 GMT -5
Ok, Take Your Time, it was in top 40 for like 20 weeks, and it did well enough that it got good points. Idk how to explain it well. But the points were very high, it had a comparable chart run to Wanted by Hunter Hayes a few years ago.
Photograph by Ed Sheeran, had a very very identical chart run to Rather Be last year, except that Photograph charted a month before Rather be and Photograph ended up having a bit more weeks on it.
Elastic Heart which is 42 on my list was Top 60 the whole 30 weeks it spent. It did very well in points too and charted well.
Hope this explains it. Anything else you want to know?
And what I mean is after Planes by Jeremih, 118, the next song, Echosmith Bright, which is 119, has a very huge gap in point difference. Basically what I mean is, Brights points is not even close to Planes. Basically the points from 98-118 difference is a bit more than the difference from 118-119, Planes to Bright. Get what I mean?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 23:06:36 GMT -5
And what I mean is after Planes by Jeremih, 118, the next song, Echosmith Bright, which is 119, has a very huge gap in point difference. Basically what I mean is, Brights points is not even close to Planes. Basically the points from 98-118 difference is a bit more than the difference from 118-119, Planes to Bright. Get what I mean? Yes, i get what you're saying as I am not stupid. I'm asking you to be more specific... what are the points? what's the "not even close" point values? back yourself up with actual data. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 23:10:51 GMT -5
Ill explain it a bit more in detail tomorrow, also are you doing 2016 predictions?
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jarhys
Gold Member
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Posts: 958
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Post by jarhys on Nov 30, 2015 8:45:23 GMT -5
Why being so stubborn about it? You can have your own year-end chart based on anything, but here we are talking about is the prediction of Billboard's year-end chart which is solely based on points every week. We shall see.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 9:56:09 GMT -5
The only reason I took the time to address you rather bluntly, Walker, is because you've taken the time to call me out in your final "predictions" and throughout the year. You say things like "I don't know why Broccoli has this so low"... when I've already make it clear exactly why... and it can be seen in my final year end prediction which discloses each song's total points. Yet, when I ask you to back yourself up with some point data instead of just "it had a great chart run"... you say the same old stuff, which makes me believe you don't really have a legit system other than taking an existing list (like mine) and then manipulating it to your liking, comparing songs against each other after they've completed their chart runs. You also appear to like country songs, lol. Again, this is fine... but it doesn't really belong in here as anything more than your own personal take on a YE chart based on your own subjective rules. You aren't even using Billboard's basic, estimated methodology for it. You're just doing your own thing. So kudos to you if you get lucky, but it's still just that - luck.
All of this said, I'd still love to see how it's possible, in a very specific way, how Take Your Time ended up higher than Photograph on your list. And not just "because it had a longer chart run." If you don't have info to provide, just say so. If it's just a gut feeling you have, just say so. Otherwise, back your assertions up by posting some data/info, or stop questioning me or bringing my predictions into yours. It's comparing apples to oranges.
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 10:29:43 GMT -5
^ I know how he's doing this. He's basically using the old points system from 1-100 (as in a song that goes #1 gets 100 points and so on), I know about it because I did it before and did it recently just for fun even though that system doesn't work. The rest I just think he does mostly as preference as where he thinks the songs would go. The guy wants to push his opinions as facts (reminds me of myself sometimes, but at least I admit I'm wrong) and doesn't seem to want to listen to anyone else, no matter how right they may be. He's a cool guy, nothing against him, but trust me, he's not any better on YouTube, he can be a little annoying sometimes. But again, nothing against him, that's just how he is.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 11:11:26 GMT -5
No Im not favoring songs I like to be higher. I dont even like Elastic Heart and Flex that much and most country songs I hate. Allthough this years country songs were much better than 2014.
In about an hour or 2 I will tell you exactly how I did it. Need to get my data out again.
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Nov 30, 2015 12:47:42 GMT -5
@ tucoms predictions, no way Flex is that low. I was just thinking the same thing. And there is no way that Coco is beating Flex |
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Nov 30, 2015 14:59:08 GMT -5
No Im not favoring songs I like to be higher. I dont even like Elastic Heart and Flex that much and most country songs I hate. Allthough this years country songs were much better than 2014. In about an hour or 2 I will tell you exactly how I did it. Need to get my data out again. I have never been so excited to see some numbers! |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:15:43 GMT -5
^ more than numbers, i wanna see how his points are assigned and how they add up.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:22:48 GMT -5
it was announced in the Periscope blog that the year end charts will come out next Wednesday, so it will be interesting to see what happens.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:44:39 GMT -5
Ok I did it sorta how Billboard said except it was not a 100-1 scale, it was bigger with more points, and the songs that were mostly on the top, I did their actual points on it added.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:50:02 GMT -5
Ok I did it sorta how Billboard said except it was not a 100-1 scale, it was bigger with more points, and the songs that were mostly on the top, I did their actual points on it added. is that really all you're going to say? just another uber vague explanation? no examples? no explanation of the point assignments between Take Your Time and Photograph? Nothing?!?!?! i'm so done with you. you are a fraud who just wants attention, and you're not getting any more attention from me. Have fun with your mess. you JUST said a few posts up "In about an hour or 2 I will tell you exactly how I did it. Need to get my data out again." and this is what you post? what a complete waste of time you've been, sorry i ever bothered. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:51:37 GMT -5
I gave an example but you did not like it. Oh well. Ill see how many of mine I end up having correct than you, or see which songs Im closer on than you. But again, I will not be surprised if you do end up having more correct than me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:52:52 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:54:18 GMT -5
I am still hoping to see Daniel do his predictions before it comes out too. If he does. Up to him.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:54:31 GMT -5
troll matinee is over. at least on my behalf. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 15:55:08 GMT -5
I aint a troll. Just cause you did not like my example doesnt mean that you have to call me one.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 30, 2015 16:14:10 GMT -5
Since it's a predictions thread, people, no one is right and no one is wrong. End of story. Thanks.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2015 16:19:41 GMT -5
I am still hoping to see Daniel do his predictions before it comes out too. If he does. Up to him. Daniel already said he's not going to be making any more predictions, did you not see his post a couple of weeks back? |
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