Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[nathanalbright]

Nov 21, 2019 14:50:55 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jul 23, 2019 9:40:40 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Bold prediction: Talk You Out Of It’s making the year-end.

It just achieved a new peak at 22 weeks and has yet to go top 10 on country airplay. If it keeps growing there, it won’t go recurrent on the main chart and get enough points.

Nice bold prediction Jfarbzz!

That take worked out far better than viewing Boyfriend as a "near lock" for the YE list, that's for sure.

[tuna]

I'm reminded of all the cold takes that Nothing Breaks Like A Heart would be a smash, and all of those dreams crushed

[GPMB]

I’m gonna make a prediction that all songs on rimetm’s predictions for 11/24-11/23 will make the final list except This Is It and Walk Me Home, which will be exchanged with Hot and On Chill

[hydraflare]

Nov 21, 2019 21:48:10 GMT -5 GPMB said:

I’m gonna make a prediction that all songs on rimetm’s predictions for 11/24-11/23 will make the final list except This Is It and Walk Me Home, which will be exchanged with Hot and On Chill

I'm gonna say no, just because This Is It's run was definitely stronger than Go Loko's

[GPMB]

Nov 21, 2019 22:23:27 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

Nov 21, 2019 21:48:10 GMT -5 GPMB said:

I’m gonna make a prediction that all songs on rimetm’s predictions for 11/24-11/23 will make the final list except This Is It and Walk Me Home, which will be exchanged with Hot and On Chill

I'm gonna say no, just because This Is It's run was definitely stronger than Go Loko's

not by THAT much

[Deleted]

Pretty sure I mentioned it before but This Is It would have been in the 60s-70s in its first three weeks if it wasn't for all the Christmas songs and album bombs at the time. Its run was also distrupted by the Ariana Grande and Billie Eilish album bombs.

[Deleted]

Nov 21, 2019 18:22:13 GMT -5 tuna said:

I'm reminded of all the cold takes that Nothing Breaks Like A Heart would be a smash, and all of those dreams crushed

Don’t remind me of the single missed hit potential of the year. Had it made the year end, it would definitely be in my top 3 best hit songs of the year (and I’m sure for many music critics online as well).

[n13l5]

Nov 22, 2019 1:43:19 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Nov 21, 2019 18:22:13 GMT -5 tuna said:

I'm reminded of all the cold takes that Nothing Breaks Like A Heart would be a smash, and all of those dreams crushed

Don’t remind me of the single missed hit potential of the year. Had it made the year end, it would definitely be in my top 3 best hit songs of the year (and I’m sure for many music critics online as well).

Not just top 3

Top 1 and it would not even been a contest

[spicymapping]

You’re all sleeping on Boyfriend. Just saying.

[Deleted]

Here's what I think the 2019 year end list will look like (I include 11/24/18). This list isn't based on any predictions just pure guessing.

1) Old Town Road
2) Sunflower
3) Without Me
4) Bad Guy
5) Wow.
6) Happier
7) Talk
8) 7 Rings
9) Sucker
10) Sicko Mode
11) High Hopes
12) Truth Hurts
13) Dancing With A Stranger
14) Thank U, Next
15) Senorita
16) I Don't Care
17) Eastside
18) Going Bad
19) Shallow
20) Better
21) No Guidance
22) Sweet But Psycho
23) Girls Like You
24) Someone You Loved
25) Suge
26) Middle Child
27) Drip Too Hard
28) Ran$om
29) Goodbyes
30) If I Can't Have You
31) Money In The Grave
32) Better Now
33) Youngblood
34) Zeze
35) Speechless
36) Panini
37) Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
38) Please Me
39) Money
40) Look Back At It
41) You Need To Calm Down
42) Me!
43) A Lot
44) Beautiful Crazy
45) MIA
46) Beautiful People
47) Pop Out
48) Thotiana
49) Be Alright
50) Whiskey Glasses
51) Lucid Dreams
52) Pure Water
53) God's Country
54) Envy Me
55) You Say
56) Mo Bamba
57) Close To Me
58) Wake Up In The Sky
59) Circles
60) Taki Taki
61) The Git Up
62) Hey Look Ma, I Made It
63) When The Party's Over
64) Con Calma
65) Beer Never Broke My Heart
66) Trampoline
67) The London
68) Murder On My Mind
69) Act Up
70) I Like It
71) Leave Me Alone
72) Close Friends
73) Bury A Friend
74) Breathin'
75) Baby Shark
76) Only Human
77) Worth It
78) My Type
79) Knockin' Boots
80) Swervin
81) How Do You Sleep?
82) Baby
83) One Thing Right
84) Rumor
85) Clout
86) Look What God Gave Her
87) Good As You
88) Trip
89) Tequila
90) Shotta Flow
91) Cash Shit
92) All To Myself
93) Love Lies
94) Good As Hell
95) Talk You Out Of It
96) Eyes On You
97) This Is It
98) Hot Girl Summer
99) Walk Me Home
100) Beautiful

[rockgolf]

Hey, can we get general agreement to start a new thread for the Hot 100 Year Predictions of the 2020s?

400 pages is enough.

[nathanalbright]

Nov 22, 2019 14:23:50 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Hey, can we get general agreement to start a new thread for the Hot 100 Year Predictions of the 2020s?

400 pages is enough.

Queue the premature Lover and Don't Start Now predictions.

[Lukas]

Having a new thread for the Hot 100 Predictions would be necessary. The first page should be used to link to posts containing full year-end predictions with raw points.

Also, for the next year, I'm thinking of doing YE predictions for not only the Hot 100 but also for the Hot 100 Component Charts as well. Assuming I can post the latter predictions on the same thread; otherwise I'll make my own.

[junkie]

I know you probably get this question a lot, but when do the year end charts release?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^After Thanksgiving. Last year they posted them on December 4th which was a Tuesday. So, I would put money on December 3rd for this year.

[rockgolf]

And now, the chart that absolutely nobody has held their breath waiting for, my predictions on the Top 150 tracks of 2019, based on a modified inverse point scheme with increasing bonus points for muti-week stays in the top 3.

This covers the 52-chart period of Dec. 1, 2018 to Nov. 23, 2019. I will generate a supplementary chart next week based on the Dec. 1 - Nov. 30 charts, but I don't actually foresee Billboard going to a 53-week year, especially when they ignored a slightly earlier late November chart last year.

Holy cow (and I apologize for the excessively mild language), Mariah Carey gains just enough points to reach the top 100 with the re-entry of All I Want For Christmas this week. She was in the top 100 until only two weeks ago, then temporarily got pushed out last week. (I realize the real Top 100 is very unlikely to include this song, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't squeak in the real Top 100 of 2020.)

Just missing out is HIGHEST IN THE ROOM, and aren't we all getting a little tired of the all-cap titles, no-cap titles, superfluous periods at the end of titles and seeming random (or RanÐom) symbols appearing in the middle of titles?<end Rant>

It's a pretty good set of songs at the top of the charts, but I think a large portion of the public will be unfamiliar with almost everything below about #15 on the list. Top 40 music just doesn't have the same broad reach it did a generation ago.

Let's see how far off I am in about, give or take, 2 and a half weeks.

[nathanalbright]

I'm guessing that you'll be at least 40-50 positions off on Talk You Out Of It.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 22, 2019 14:23:50 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Hey, can we get general agreement to start a new thread for the Hot 100 Year Predictions of the 2020s?

400 pages is enough.

Agreed! Let the title here be changed to Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2010s) then make a new one for 2020s.

[tuna]

I really hate how much I like No Guidance and am rooting for it

[Lukas]

Since the general consensus here appears to be to make a 2020s year end thread we should decide on who will actually make the thread lol (and it better be someone who will post useful links on the first post).

I'm planning on making the one for my Hot 100 Component Charts Year-End Predictions, but I could also do this one as well.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2019 23:10:08 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Since the general consensus here appears to be to make a 2020s year end thread we should decide on who will actually make the thread lol (and it better be someone who will post useful links on the first post).

I'm planning on making the one for my Hot 100 Component Charts Year-End Predictions, but I could also do this one as well.

It was an honor to join the crew, even if it was at the very end. I'll see you guys in the 2020s.

[Marcus]

I've been mostly a lurker on this thread with only a couple of contributions but for the time I've been here its been really fun. Thank you to all of the predictors this year and in previous years for doing this stuff. See y'all in the 2020s

[GPMB]

there's been a lot of talk about whether Youngblood can repeat its YE position from last year, but one thing I haven't seen anyone point out yet is that there's actually a (very slight) chance that Sam Smith's How Do You Sleep? could end up at the same YE position this year that Jesse McCartney's song of the same name did in 2009

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 24, 2019 16:43:58 GMT -5 GPMB said:

there's been a lot of talk about whether Youngblood can repeat its YE position from last year, but one thing I haven't seen anyone point out yet is that there's actually a (very slight) chance that Sam Smith's How Do You Sleep? could end up at the same YE position this year that Jesse McCartney's song of the same name did in 2009

First time you pointed it out, sadly "How Do You Sleep?" may likely end up above #86.

[Deleted]

Nov 25, 2019 2:29:15 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Nov 24, 2019 16:43:58 GMT -5 GPMB said:

there's been a lot of talk about whether Youngblood can repeat its YE position from last year, but one thing I haven't seen anyone point out yet is that there's actually a (very slight) chance that Sam Smith's How Do You Sleep? could end up at the same YE position this year that Jesse McCartney's song of the same name did in 2009

First time you pointed it out, sadly "How Do You Sleep?" may likely end up above #86.

Yas Bazzi layout back

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 25, 2019 2:31:08 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Nov 25, 2019 2:29:15 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

First time you pointed it out, sadly "How Do You Sleep?" may likely end up above #86.

Yas Bazzi layout back

Bazzi and Camila's "Beautiful" should be in the 2019 YE Hot 100 and whatever it takes, it needs to. That's why I want Scenario 3 to happen.

[Deleted]

Nov 20, 2019 16:13:32 GMT -5 rimetm said:

The video's premiering in about 45 minutes, hopefully you guys will enjoy it!

Reminding myself to watch later

[dremolus - solarpunk]

rimetm's predictions actually have Trip at #92, the same spot it had in 2018! I don't really think it's going to repeat spots - I have it at #87 - but after the 'Treat You Better' debacle, I could also see it landing at #92 again.

[GPMB]

Nov 25, 2019 2:29:15 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Nov 24, 2019 16:43:58 GMT -5 GPMB said:

there's been a lot of talk about whether Youngblood can repeat its YE position from last year, but one thing I haven't seen anyone point out yet is that there's actually a (very slight) chance that Sam Smith's How Do You Sleep? could end up at the same YE position this year that Jesse McCartney's song of the same name did in 2009

First time you pointed it out, sadly "How Do You Sleep?" may likely end up above #86.

It most likely will, like 99.5% likely I’d say, but I’m hoping for it to happen because it would technically be the first time that a song repeated its YE position but it also wouldn’t be because all they have is the same title

[earth]

Honestly I think girls like you will be top 20 considering how high it was on the decade-end list