Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Joey]

Oct 18, 2014 21:43:39 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Oct 18, 2014 21:37:20 GMT -5 Joey said:

That's the title lol, Thank You by MKTO. Good song, but still prefer Classic.

Really? :O that doesn't look like them at all in the pic! I actually thought it was Austin Mahone and Big Sean or something haha

Haircut made him look better. And yes, anyone would think that's Big Sean in first look.

[badrobot]

Oct 18, 2014 11:49:48 GMT -5 rimetm said:

By the way, I must thank you so much for doing this chart. I'm a stepmaker, and I've been using your chart as a reference for what songs to step and safely put up for claims for a massive collaboration project that eventually will step all 100 year-end tracks. A YouTube chartmaker I correspond with is also aware of this thread, as he released a top 100 for now video around the end of September!

What is a "stepmaker"?

[rimetm]

Oct 19, 2014 1:34:10 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Oct 18, 2014 11:49:48 GMT -5 rimetm said:

I'm a stepmaker, and I've been using your chart as a reference for what songs to step and safely put up for claims for a massive collaboration project that eventually will step all 100 year-end tracks.

What is a "stepmaker"?

A stepmaker is a person who writes stepcharts (which most commonly refer to the patterns that are used in Dance Dance Revolution, but can also be written for other rhythm games), usually to ~2 minute cuts of songs. It is somewhat of a learned art, because in order to write these charts you have to understand flow (in other words, if the player won't have to twist awkwardly or spin excessively or face away from the screen, etc.), rhythm, and difficulty balance. So far, the team has completed 14 tracks and I'm expecting to receive 2 more from claimers.

As an example, here was the chart I did for "Ain't it Fun":



and here are a few snippets of some charts I did for other pretty current songs (the videos aren't full because I'm not even going to risk a strike):

[jarhys]

Will there be more songs in both 2013&2014 year-end than 2012&2013?

2012&2013: (11 songs)
#68/#12 Ho Hey - The Lumineers
#94/#27 Diamonds - Rihanna
#18/#38 One More Night - Maroon 5
#49/#46 Home - Phillip Phillips
#91/#47 It's Time - Imagine Dragons
#47/#55 Gangnam Style - PSY
#85/#57 Die Young - Ke$ha
#14/#58 Some Nights - fun.
#97/#84 Adorn - Miguel
#74/#86 Let Me Love You (Until You Learn To Love Yourself) - Ne-Yo
#52/#92 Wanted - Hunter Hayes

2013&2014(until now): (12 songs)
#63/#04 Counting Stars - OneRepublic
#97/#18 Let Her Go - Passenger
#15/#20 Royals - Lorde
#19/#21 Wake Me Up! - Avicii
#62/#22 Demons - Imagine Dragons
#18/#33 Wrecking Ball - Miley Cyrus
#10/#36 Roar - Katy Perry
#03/#49 Radioactive - Imagine Dragons
#34/#50 Hold On We're Going Home - Drake ft. Majid Jordan
#96/#65 Brave - Sara Bareilles
#02/#66 Blurred Lines - Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell
#25/#94 Sail - AWOLNATION

[Daniel Collins]

"Sail" is in danger but could hold between 98-100. It would be nice to see "Royals" making the top 20 of two year-end charts. "Just The Way You Are" was the last to do it. (#18, 2010) (#15, 2011)

[johonmilla]

Which songs would be able to enter the all-time list from the past 3 years? Will Dark Horse and gangnam style make it? And will the new streaming thing added to the points affect the all-time chart?

[Daniel Collins]

"Happy" and "Dark Horse".

[Daniel Collins]

Week 48: Up to week dated 11/01/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,700 + Streams/550

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	All About That Bass	52,400	44%	24%	32%
2	Shake It Off	51,440	38%	29%	33%
3	Bang Bang	31,420	37%	26%	37%
4	Black Widow	31,230	33%	20%	47%
5	Habits (Stay High)	31,190	38%	26%	36%
6	Don't Tell 'Em	25,910	24%	23%	53%
7	Animals	25,510	34%	38%	28%
8	Stay With Me	24,230	34%	19%	47%
9	Hot Boy	24,090	69%	18%	13%
10	Don't	19,800	29%	26%	45%

This is the lowest points I've seen from a #10 song.

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,345,780	41	42	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,322,250	49	48	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,264,230	28	48	1
5	4	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	993,640	35	33	1
4	5	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	984,380	-	46	2
6	6	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3
7	7	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	816,840	44	25	2
8	8	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	798,030	-	33	1
9	9	Magic!	Rude	793,730	17	26	1
10	10	Bastille	Pompeii	738,230	-	39	5
11	11	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	731,170	8	28	2
12	12	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	681,650	-	37	4
13	13	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	667,920	-	26	1
14	14	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	662,070	25	27	4
15	15	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	655,630	1	15	1
16	16	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	590,430	-	24	4
17	17	Lorde	Team	583,380	-	30	6
18	18	Passenger	Let Her Go	571,440	-	27	5
19	19	Idina Menzel	Let It Go	559,150	-	33	5
20	20	Lorde	Royals	556,520	-	24	1
21	21	Avicii	Wake Me Up	552,570	-	32	5
22	22	Imagine Dragons	Demons	545,000	-	31	6
23	23	One Direction	Story Of My Life	528,820	-	29	8
24	24	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	518,830	2	9	1
25	25	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	452,190	-	36	9
26	26	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	449,680	-	35	11
28	27	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	448,880	39	31	7
27	28	Calvin Harris	Summer	442,650	-	26	7
30	29	Sia	Chandelier	441,940	14	24	8
29	30	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	432,870	-	20	2
31	31	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
34	32	Maroon 5	Maps	409,340	22	18	6
39	33	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	398,270	4	16	3
32	34	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	397,290	-	21	5
33	35	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	393,560	-	19	1
35	36	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	390,550	-	29	13
37	37	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	388,410	21	20	8
41	38	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	384,310	3	12	3
40	39	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	378,080	11	11	2
36	40	Katy Perry	Roar	377,800	-	20	7
38	41	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	367,910	-	22	8
42	42	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	366,620	24	25	12
43	43	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	363,010	16	16	4
44	44	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	341,000	-	24	10
45	45	Aloe Blacc	The Man	328,640	-	20	8
47	46	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	328,320	12	19	10
46	47	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	323,390	-	28	15
52	48	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	315,140	5	21	4
48	49	MKTo	Classic	307,670	-	27	14
49	50	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	296,640	-	23	13
50	51	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	295,360	-	18	9
51	52	Trey Songz	Na Na	293,810	-	28	21
53	53	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	292,170	37	25	10
57	54	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	290,540	6	17	6
54	55	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	279,410	-	21	19
55	56	Ed Sheeran	Sing	269,230	-	20	13
56	57	Avicii	Hey Brother	265,370	-	23	16
58	58	Martin Garrix	Animals	262,420	-	25	21
61	59	Tinashe ft. Schoolboy Q	2 On	261,070	43	24	24
59	60	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	255,800	-	25	20
60	61	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	252,510	-	20	14
62	62	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	249,940	-	20	15
64	63	Becky G	Shower	246,180	61	20	16
63	64	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	241,220	-	20	14
65	65	Sara Bareilles	Brave	230,670	-	19	23
68	66	Florida Georgia Line	Dirt	214,970	31	15	11
66	67	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	212,690	-	17	19
67	68	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	212,490	-	14	14
74	69	Jason Aldean	Burnin' It Down	210,170	23	13	12
78	70	Ed Sheeran	Don't	208,750	10	19	10
70	71	Kenny Chesney	American Kids	207,310	69	18	23
69	72	Lady Antebellum	Bartender	202,250	-	20	31
71	73	Dierks Bentley	Drunk On A Plane	198,460	-	20	27
72	74	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	197,130	-	14	14
92	75	Echosmith	Cool Kids	195,920	13	15	13
73	76	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	195,540	-	15	16
75	77	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	195,230	-	20	19
101	78	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	190,110	9	12	9
76	79	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	189,700	-	18	31
77	80	Katy Perry	Birthday	189,560	-	18	17
79	81	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	188,840	-	19	15
80	82	Beyonce	Partition	188,390	-	21	23
81	83	Lil Wayne ft. Drake	Believe Me	188,060	-	20	26
82	84	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	187,710	-	20	9
83	85	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	185,900	-	13	18
84	86	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	185,570	-	13	15
85	87	Kongos	Come With Me Now	185,450	-	21	31
86	88	Jake Owen	Beachin'	184,780	-	20	26
87	89	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	184,350	-	20	36
105	90	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	182,930	15	21	15
88	91	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	182,160	-	20	36
95	92	Schoolboy Q ft. BJ The Chicago Kid	Studio	181,220	68	20	38
89	93	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	178,980	-	16	14
90	94	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	178,700	-	20	24
91	95	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	177,800	-	20	33
93	96	Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood	Somethin' Bad	176,670	-	20	19
94	97	AWOLNATION	Sail	176,340	-	16	32
96	98	Miley Cyrus	Adore You	174,670	-	16	21
97	99	TY Dolla $ign & B.O.B.	Paranoid	173,860	-	20	29
103	100	TI ft. Iggy Azalea	No Mediocre	173,820	56	18	33

Bubbling Under:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
116	111	5 Seconds Of Summer	Amnesia	159,520	42	16	16
122	112	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	158,110	19	14	19
119	114	Sam Hunt	Leave The Night On	155,280	38	17	38
137	121	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	144,610	29	14	27
171	141	Maroon 5	Animals	129,160	7	9	7
232	213	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	62,950	20	7	20
435	308	Taylor Swift	Out Of The Woods	17,410	18	1	18

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Well it's official now, Fancy beat Counting Stars :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( At least Shake It Off will jump a few spots up next week though!!!!!

[Future Captain]

Look like Fancy will pass 1 million point next week. I think the top 2 wouldn't change for at least 5-8 weeks.

[badrobot]

Oct 24, 2014 8:11:11 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Look like Fancy will pass 1 million point next week. I think the top 2 wouldn't change for at least 5-8 weeks.

There's only 4 more weeks in the chart year though, so the top 5 is pretty much locked at this point.

[jarhys]

Oct 24, 2014 9:04:22 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Oct 24, 2014 8:11:11 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Look like Fancy will pass 1 million point next week. I think the top 2 wouldn't change for at least 5-8 weeks.

There's only 4 more weeks in the chart year though, so the top 5 is pretty much locked at this point.

His/her top 2 means All About That Bass and Shake It Off.

All About That Bass will be #11 next week, Rude will be #8 and maybe #7 at the end, and Shake It Off will enter top 20 or maybe top 15 soon.

[mamooshka]

"Bass" will be #12 next week. "Rude" will mark year end at #8 at best. "Shake" likely to finish at #16 year-end.

"Stay" will eke into year end Top 10.

[Future Captain]

About the lowest point from a #10 song, isn't at some time TDFW only have 17k point when it's #10? Kinda wonder if you change the inverse point system if a #10 song has less the 20k point

[Daniel Collins]

Nope. TDFW got 21.9K pts. when it's at #10. And no, the inverse point that I'm using for the decade and all-time chart predictions is constant per position.

[brady47]

Wow, 2014 was a really competitive year for the top 3. I feel like All of Me or Dark Horse could be really high in the decade end chart.

[Deleted]

Wow I think this week was the closest 3-5 I've ever seen! :O
And now it looks certain that AATB will be top ten year-end. It will jump 15-12 next week already. It might even be #6 or #7 possibly.

[macabyan]

Isn't there a 53rd week before November ends? Will this prediction count it?

[Deleted]

Oct 25, 2014 20:00:34 GMT -5 macabyan said:

Isn't there a 53rd week before November ends? Will this prediction count it?

No that was for last year when the 2013 year-end chart ran from the December 1, 2012 chart to the November 30, 2013 chart? The Monster would've been 2 or 3 spots higher if the November 30 chart was included on 2014; maybe too 10 if its two previous weeks were included...it was massive during those few weeks :(

[tucomrang]

how come Out Of The Woods was at 435 last week while it just debuted this week?

[rimetm]

Oct 26, 2014 12:16:03 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

how come Out Of The Woods was at 435 last week while it just debuted this week?

That's just a placeholder number: the lowest position on the chart with that song added to last week if it had 0 points. In other words, by the last chart week of October, 434 songs had cycled in and out of the Hot 100.

[imbondz]

is there a chance these predictions are wrong for the top 3?

[Deleted]

Oct 26, 2014 21:33:52 GMT -5 imbondz said:

is there a chance these predictions are wrong for the top 3?

If there is then I hope that it's All of Me being #2 and Dark Horse being #3

[mamooshka]

Agreed. Would've been nice to have seen 'Stars' in the Top 4 too.

[Joey]

Subjectively, my top 5 would go like this:

1. Happy - because it's just too damn big. 2014's song.
2. Dark Horse - because it's Katy Perry.
3. Counting Stars - I'm still hoping for my favorite band to get this high, although very very (VERY) unlikely to happen.
4. All of Me
5. Fancy.

I hope Billboard uses an entirely different charting methodology for the YE charts, favoring CS lol.

P.S. I'd put CS on top, really. Is it too obvious I'm a big OneRepublic fan? 

[Dylan :)]

How high do you guys think Cool Kids will go? Hoping that Chandelier gets in/closer to the top 25, really want to see it in DJ Earworm's mix!

[Deleted]

Oct 28, 2014 5:41:35 GMT -5 Joey said:

3. Counting Stars - I'm still hoping for my favorite band to get this high, although very very (VERY) unlikely to happen.


I hope Billboard uses an entirely different charting methodology for the YE charts, favoring CS lol.

P.S. I'd put CS on top, really. Is it too obvious I'm a big OneRepublic fan? 

unlikely, because "All Of Me" will have charted the entire year and was #1 for 3 weeks, and "Fancy" was #1 for 7 weeks and was the song of the summer, while "Counting Stars" only peaked at #2 for about a week or two, but it's longevity on the chart will certainly put it in the Top 5. The official list will most likely look like the Top 5 on this list.

[Deleted]

Oct 29, 2014 10:41:39 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

How high do you guys think Cool Kids will go? Hoping that Chandelier gets in/closer to the top 25, really want to see it in DJ Earworm's mix!

Remember that since 2010 he never used the actual year-end top 25 for the mashups
in fact, Sia herself was a victim of this as Titanium wasn't used in the 2012 mashup. So year-end position will have no impact whatsoever on whether or not he uses it in the 2014 mashup.

[Dylan :)]

Oct 29, 2014 12:23:40 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Oct 29, 2014 10:41:39 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

How high do you guys think Cool Kids will go? Hoping that Chandelier gets in/closer to the top 25, really want to see it in DJ Earworm's mix!

Remember that since 2010 he never used the actual year-end top 25 for the mashups
in fact, Sia herself was a victim of this as Titanium wasn't used in the 2012 mashup. So year-end position will have no impact whatsoever on whether or not he uses it in the 2014 mashup.

He does still sort of use the top 25. Since he makes and posts his mashup before the official charts, he does something probably like what Daniel did here to guess what songs are popular (I'm guessing not to such an extent). He also then adds songs that he feels are popular now, and will continue to be popular, but will be marked unfairly on the year end due to longevity and just luck (e.g. Diamonds, Die Young, Counting Stars). For example in his 2013 year end, 19 songs were in the actual top 25, 2 songs got in because a) his guesses were slightly off or b) he had room to add more, as he wasn't adding Locked Out of Heaven and Ho Hey again, and finally the ones he felt were popular now and got unlucky (Counting Stars, The Monster and Demons). Then Applause was just way off lol. The main reason I want Chandelier to get into the top 25 is because, well, I'll have an excuse to complain if he doesn't add it, and it gives it a slight higher chance that he feels when he's making the mashup that it is in the top 25 and should be in it. Sorry for the long message.

[mamooshka]

Love her as well, but it will likely be a #26 finish for Sia.  'Chandelier' will indeed reach 25 next week, only to be surpassed by Iggy before year-end.

Echosmith is looking to finish at #66.