Keith Urban - "Cop Car"

[Cody Wants Out...]

I wasn't trying to say that it'll happen this soon, since radio still loves Keith at this point. Maybe it's just too crowded on the charts and some songs have to wait their turn.

[Libra]

So, the race for #10 on Mediabase seems to have taken a rather peculiar turn.

Current #10 is Randy Houser, who of course is hemorrhaging spins and audience - and will drop tomorrow. Dan & Shay are #11, and trying their best to stay afloat long enough to take it - and the fact that they've gone recurrent on Billboard definitely makes their presence all the more interesting.

Keith's #12. Pulling back to neck and neck with him once again is Justin Moore at #13. All three will, certainly, pass Randy tomorrow. But neither Keith nor Justin is a lock to pass D+S in that exact same breath. Either or both could certainly do so on Saturday or Sunday if they don't tomorrow.

[Deleted]

I'm starting to think that Dan + Shay's label (Warner Bros.) will fight just hard enough to secure the #10 spot in the Sunday morning Mediabase update, and then perhaps their song will start to nosedive already by Monday's update. That would give them an official top 10 peak at MB. But of course Sunday is the last day of the Billboard week, so Keith could pull through there.

It's also definitely possible that D+S could re-enter the Billboard chart if they gain enough this week (I don't know what BB's policy is there...does a song have to gain a certain quantity/amount? Not sure) but that would require an extra day of treading water and quite frankly I'm surprised that their song has been able to hang on as long as it has...they've been treading water basically all month.

I don't really care about the MB chart as much as I do Billboard's Airplay chart, so if D+S want to steal the MB #10, that's fine by me. But I am really, really pulling for Keith to get that #10 spot on Billboard. C'mon, Keith!

[rsmatto]

As far as success goes on single sales vs. album sales between the last album and this album, It seems the generation that's buying (if buying at all) may have flipped from "Get Closer" to "Fuse" with singles instead of album sales as All 3 singles from "Fuse" have hit Gold or better sales status, something that the singles from "Get Closer" failed to do (honestly KU's due for a mass RIAA Certification but the label needs to send the data in).

Soundscan Sales #s:
Little Bit Of Everything Sales over 550k
We Were Us 550k (675k to date)
Cop Car Sales as Of This Week

As for Keith Urban's Top 10 status. All is well and good if the label and/or Billboard follow the "mongrel" chart which might happen in this case, if the song fails to hit Top 10.

[onebuffalo]

Apr 24, 2014 15:39:01 GMT -5 Libra said:

So, the race for #10 on Mediabase seems to have taken a rather peculiar turn.

Current #10 is Randy Houser, who of course is hemorrhaging spins and audience - and will drop tomorrow. Dan & Shay are #11, and trying their best to stay afloat long enough to take it - and the fact that they've gone recurrent on Billboard definitely makes their presence all the more interesting.

Keith's #12. Pulling back to neck and neck with him once again is Justin Moore at #13. All three will, certainly, pass Randy tomorrow. But neither Keith nor Justin is a lock to pass D+S in that exact same breath. Either or both could certainly do so on Saturday or Sunday if they don't tomorrow.

Libra a Keith Urban fan? I'm happy to see it. I still think Cop Car WILL get into the top ten.

[drummerman2009]

If Billboard doesn't bring "19 You + Me" back as a re-entry then Keith could enter the Top 10 at #10 but I have a feeling now that Billboard will bring back "19 You + Me" as a re-entry at #10 leaving Keith at #11 and hopefully Jerrod Niemann will go recurrent the week after next then Keith will have a chance at the Top 10.

[Zazie]

Apr 24, 2014 16:26:19 GMT -5 rsmatto said:

As far as success goes on single sales vs. album sales between the last album and this album, It seems the generation that's buying (if buying at all) may have flipped from "Get Closer" to "Fuse" with singles instead of album sales as All 3 singles from "Fuse" have hit Gold or better sales status, something that the singles from "Get Closer" failed to do (honestly KU's due for a mass RIAA Certification but the label needs to send the data in).

Soundscan Sales #s:
Little Bit Of Everything Sales over 550k
We Were Us 550k (675k to date)
Cop Car Sales as Of This Week

As for Keith Urban's Top 10 status. All is well and good if the label and/or Billboard follow the "mongrel" chart which might happen in this case, if the song fails to hit Top 10.

That's a good point. But if the mongrel chart is where you get your top 10 status, then there's no reason for Dan + Shay's song to be getting a late push. That song's been in the top 10 on the mongrel for awhile. They could rest on their laurels and not try for this awkward re-entry, and just point at their mongrel peak.

But they do seem to be pushing for the top 10 on airplay.

[Deleted]

Apr 25, 2014 17:54:59 GMT -5 drummerman2009 said:

If Billboard doesn't bring "19 You + Me" back as a re-entry then Keith could enter the Top 10 at #10 but I have a feeling now that Billboard will bring back "19 You + Me" as a re-entry at #10 leaving Keith at #11 and hopefully Jerrod Niemann will go recurrent the week after next then Keith will have a chance at the Top 10.

With the way things are looking now, if D+S does re-enter at Billboard (and that's a big "if"), it would probably be at #11. Keith only had 222k less than D+S did on Monday's Billboard, and Keith has out-gained them by 817k on Mediabase in the last 3 days alone:

04/23: +91k for D+S, +225k for KU
04/24: -180k for D+S, +119k for KU
04/25: +67k for D+S, +451k for KU

D+S did have the better Monday--they gained 156k while Keith lost 97k, but even with that bad first day of the week for Keith, he has out-gained them by nearly 600k on MB so far over the 4 days of the BB tracking week.

And I suspect D+S will push for the MB #10 position, and maybe start falling already on Sunday (Monday morning update). That would make sense because they are ahead in spins at MB but behind Keith in audience. So if their song is #10 on MB come Sunday evening, that might be enough for their label to pull the plug, and then we probably wouldn't see a re-entry at Billboard. And even if D+S does manage a gain on Sunday, I'm still not sure that they would re-enter on Billboard, since it looks like Keith will be ahead of them there, and I'll bet that the folks at Billboard understand that their song is basically done. I don't think they'll allow another "Sober" situation to happen here...bullet-less, recurrent, re-enter, drop off again.

I give Keith a 60% chance at the BB #10, D+S a 30% chance, and Justin Moore a 10%. As for the MB #10, I'll go 55% D+S, 35% Keith, and 10% Justin.

[Zazie]

Nice chart analysis above. But it looks different today, with a 600k gain for Urban, a 300k loss for Dan+, and a loss of less than 100k but still a loss for Moore.

Very nice back-to-back days for Urban, who looks safe for the top 10 and can now start adding strongly heading for the top 5. Maybe.

[Deleted]

Agreed. What a difference a day makes! I thought for a good long while about what percentages to assign, only to have them all thrown out the window today! >:(

But I've been rooting for Keith all along, so it's really great to see such a strong update today. CC gains 604k while the competition loses ground. D+S loses 290k, and Justin with a small loss of 44k.

D+S still has a spin bullet on MB right now but I think that might change in tomorrow's update, which I believe would be their 3rd bullet-less week at MB. So with Urban's strong late-week gains, D+S's top 10 chances (and Billboard re-entry chances) are now all but gone, I would think.

I give Keith at least a 95% chance of finishing the week at #10 on both Billboard and Mediabase. Justin Moore is barely a threat now, and I think D+S is done for good. I don't expect a Billboard re-entry and I think their song could fall harder in tomorrow's update, now that their label sees the writing on the wall...and that should send them recurrent on Mediabase as well.

I hope that CC doesn't settle for a #10 peak though. In cases like this, in which a song has been struggling for weeks, I'm always wary that it could get to #10 and then just call it a day. I hope CC still has some more gas left in its tank...I want to hear those sirens again, and see the song make a play for the top 5 yet.

[rsmatto]

Apr 25, 2014 19:13:28 GMT -5 Zazie said:

Apr 24, 2014 16:26:19 GMT -5 rsmatto said:

As far as success goes on single sales vs. album sales between the last album and this album, It seems the generation that's buying (if buying at all) may have flipped from "Get Closer" to "Fuse" with singles instead of album sales as All 3 singles from "Fuse" have hit Gold or better sales status, something that the singles from "Get Closer" failed to do (honestly KU's due for a mass RIAA Certification but the label needs to send the data in).

Soundscan Sales #s:
Little Bit Of Everything Sales over 550k
We Were Us 550k (675k to date)
Cop Car Sales as Of This Week

As for Keith Urban's Top 10 status. All is well and good if the label and/or Billboard follow the "mongrel" chart which might happen in this case, if the song fails to hit Top 10.

That's a good point. But if the mongrel chart is where you get your top 10 status, then there's no reason for Dan + Shay's song to be getting a late push. That song's been in the top 10 on the mongrel for awhile. They could rest on their laurels and not try for this awkward re-entry, and just point at their mongrel peak.

But they do seem to be pushing for the top 10 on airplay.

"Cop Car" was also #1 on the Music Row chart this week. So in secondary markets it's a huge hit (though those markets rarely get a song sales like major markets do).

Edit: It's #10 on BOTH Billboard and Mediabase this week. His steak is officially intact.

[rbundy1987]

Apr 28, 2014 14:08:23 GMT -5 rsmatto said:

Apr 25, 2014 19:13:28 GMT -5 Zazie said:

That's a good point. But if the mongrel chart is where you get your top 10 status, then there's no reason for Dan + Shay's song to be getting a late push. That song's been in the top 10 on the mongrel for awhile. They could rest on their laurels and not try for this awkward re-entry, and just point at their mongrel peak.

But they do seem to be pushing for the top 10 on airplay.

"Cop Car" was also #1 on the Music Row chart this week. So in secondary markets it's a huge hit (though those markets rarely get a song sales like major markets do).

Edit: It's #10 on BOTH Billboard and Mediabase this week. His steak is officially intact.

His steak is officially intact??

[Deleted]

Apr 28, 2014 16:21:58 GMT -5 rbundy1987 said:

Apr 28, 2014 14:08:23 GMT -5 rsmatto said:

"Cop Car" was also #1 on the Music Row chart this week. So in secondary markets it's a huge hit (though those markets rarely get a song sales like major markets do).

Edit: It's #10 on BOTH Billboard and Mediabase this week. His steak is officially intact.

His steak is officially intact??

Well I guess he needs a steak knife then!

[Deleted]

TOP 10 AGAIN: Keith Urban pads his lead as the artist with the most consecutive top 10 singles on Country Airplay (counting only promoted, non-seasonal titles), as "Cop Car" speeds 11-10 to become his 31st title to reach the chart's upper region, with each achieved consecutively since "Your Everything" became his first top 10 on the Aug. 12, 2000 chart. Urban's 31 top 10s include 16 No. 1s, a feat most recently achieved with "We Were Us" (with Miranda Lambert) in December.

With 18, Carrie Underwood boasts the second-longest active top 10 streak (2006-13), followed by 14 apiece for Luke Bryan and Blake Shelton.

Urban's newly-minted top 10 is the third single from his album "Fuse." Lead track "Little Bit of Everything" topped Country Airplay for two weeks, ahead of "We Were Us."

Source: Billboard

---

Also, Keith performed "Cop Car" on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon last night. It was the first time he has performed CC on television since the Grammy's and the Sam Hunt tweet. Watch below:

www.nbc.com/the-tonight-show/segments/4986

Furthermore, Keith's Raise 'Em Up Tour kicks off this summer on July 17 in Atlantic City, NJ. Openers are Brett Eldredge and Jerrod Niemann. However, the opening date (July 17) is to be opened by The Cadillac Three and Sam Hunt.

So maybe whatever the deal was with Sam is just water under the bridge by now? Hard to say. It would certainly be nice if there is no enmity there.

I'm really glad this song has finally made the top 10. I think it's his slowest-climbing song in probably at least a decade, but it's definitely caught a 2nd wind here. "Cop Car" has gained over 600k on 3 of the last 4 days at Mediabase. It should finish this week at #9, as Jerrod Niemann will drop below (he'll get another chart week at MB, but he'll go recurrent on the next BB chart). Keith probably won't re-catch Miranda, and he definitely won't re-catch Luke, but Brantley, Eric, and Rascal Flatts are all likely to be heading down soon, and I think Brett Eldredge may have to settle for a top 5 peak.

It's hard to see CC getting all the way to #1, since it's had a rather slow, un-Keith-like climb, but I think it can go at least top 5 yet. Despite being his slowest-climbing single in a long time, it's his fastest-selling single in a long time (even out-pacing "Little Bit Of Everything" and "We Were Us").

[Zazie]

CC's at #10 now. It will pass Niemann on the 5/17 chart. What are the other songs it will get past on its way to #5? The song needs about 10 mill more to reach the right audience range for top 5 on Billboard. Give him 4 weeks to make up that 10 million shortage.

I can imagine Rascal Flatts giving up the ghost by then. In fact, I don't think there's a reason to keep it alive that long. Bad timing, but what can you do? Too many strong songs surrounding it.

In 4 weeks both Brantley Gilbert and Eric Church might have fallen far enough so that, whether they've gone recurrent or not, they'll be below CC.

Maybe that's wrong, but it's at least possible. Then there has to be one other song that Urban passes. Eldredge? Or maybe he has to wait a 5th week and let somebody else drop below him.

[avalyn]

Keith will be performing tonight on American Idol. According to Focus on the 615 he will be performing Good Thing.

[Marv]

Unless his label incomprehensibly pulls this wonderful song there's no reason why it can't go much higher on the chart; that 1,200-spin lead over the flaming hot 'Chainsaw' isn't bound to start shrinking appreciably until the end of this month or early next month; if he follows them into the top five or even much higher which I fully expect to take place, then that would be wonderful.

That absurd ad which Brantley's label placed in Monday evening's edition of Country Aircheck was an idiotic waste of $$$, as Eric Church is deservedly #1 in a top 20 loaded with mediocrity IMHO, and which will be confirmed in about 5 hours, at which time the bottom will seriously drop out of 'Bottoms Up' over the course of the next few weeks.

'Cop Car' debuted on the Mediabase chart simultaneously with 'Rewind', and one week after the current tunes by Brantley & Eric did, as well as the just-went-recurrent Blake Shelton tune (DWSL), and they all reached #1, so why can't he do likewise with what IMHO is a much better song?

He's also some 1,100 spins behind labelmate Luke Bryan, who'll undoubtedly reach the penthouse within the next 4 weeks or so, my point being that even if 'Cop Car' doesn't reach #1 and winds up peaking in the top 3, that will certainly earn him very lofty slot on the year-end charts at both trades, and perhaps earn a song of the year nomination at this fall's CMA Awards shindig.

The next 6-8 weeks on the charts are going to be very interesting, to put it mildly.

[Deleted]

May 3, 2014 0:33:56 GMT -5 Marv said:

Unless his label incomprehensibly pulls this wonderful song there's no reason why it can't go much higher on the chart; that 1,200-spin lead over the flaming hot 'Chainsaw' isn't bound to start shrinking appreciably until the end of this month or early next month; if he follows them into the top five or even much higher which I fully expect to take place, then that would be wonderful.

I'm not sure if I follow you here...are you suggesting that Keith would follow TBP into the top 5? That's highly, highly unlikely. "Chainsaw" had been doing fairly well but it's really slowed down this week, only gaining 500k in the last 5 days, whereas Keith is up almost 2.2 million in that same span. The gap between Keith and the songs behind him is huge and it's only growing...there are absolutely no threats in the rear-view mirror here.

Otherwise I agree with the rest of your post. Eric isn't #1 just yet but he should take over the #1 spot at Mediabase tomorrow, and he's likely to be #1 on Billboard as well. It's hard to fault Brantley's label for pushing for a 2nd week atop the charts, though--that song had a very quick and strong climb, and if Jerrod Niemann could get 2 weeks, why not Brantley? Jerrod had a slower climb and while his song has sold pretty well, Brantley was out-pacing him in the sales department almost 2 to 1.

Eric's chart climb wasn't quite as strong as Brantley's but he had enough strength left for a final big gain this week, so he'll get the #1.

Thomas Rhett, FGL/Luke, and then Luke-solo are next in line for #1. Both Brantley and Eric should start to fall in earnest next week, and RF may join them; if not, probably the week after that. "Rewind" doesn't seem likely to hit #1. They should wrap up the top 5 peak this weekend, and another decent week might get them to #3, but only if they can hold off Luke next week, and I don't think that's likely either.

Back to Keith...once the droppers start dropping, that would leave only Thomas, FGL, Luke, Miranda, and Brett ahead of "Cop Car", and therefore Keith would have a clear path up to #6 in the next couple of weeks. Then all he would have to do is pass one more song, presumably either Thomas (once he's on his way down) or Brett (since I'm not sure if Brett can get much higher than #5 himself).

But if Keith is ready to send out a new single, that of course puts the whole kibosh on such a top 5 scenario for "Cop Car".

[rjz]

I may be in the minority, but I think Cop Car has a shot at #1. The announcement of Good Thing as next single and performance is probably just a scheduling thing for American Idol- that is the slot he was given. After all there aren't many slots left on the show. Perhaps they didn't anticipate the chart jam and slower rise of Cop Car when they scheduled the judges in for their performances.

[onebuffalo]

I would love to see Cop Car hit #1. Keith Urban has yet to start a CD with three consecutive #1 hits. He's come close twice with the following CDs:
1. Be Here
a. Days Go By-2004-#1
b. You're My Better Half-2005-#2
c. Making Memories Of Us-2005-#1
2. Get Closer
a. Put You In A Song-2011-#2
b. Without You-2011-#1
c. Long Hot Summer-2011-#1

[Cody Wants Out...]

I was about to suggest Golden Road and Defying Gravity, but I guess those don't count since #2 is closer than #3.
Other than that, I'd also love to see "Cop Car" make it to #1; it's one of the only current songs on the charts worth listening to imho.

[Marv]

To clarify, Keith is over 2,000 spins short of the number of spins typically needed to hit #1 (although that's certainly not a hard and fast rule as we all know), and I certainly don't expect any announcement of his next single until late next month or early July.

I'd be delirious if he wound up as the most-played artist at country radio this year since there's zero doubt in my mind that his material (current as well as his entire body of work) trumps that of any 'bro-country' artist currently in existence and dominating major-market playlists, but sadly that's not going to happen.

I've yet to hear any single of his which would assault my eardrums as egregiously as several tunes of recent vintage by format superstars, which certainly led to KEEY PD Gregg Swedberg's recent tirade and indictment of Music Row ('We're going to make our own hits'), a mindset recently emulated by no less than Scott Borchetta (guess he got the memo, huh?)

Urban's been an extremely consistent artist for me throughout his career, and listenability is extremely important to me, so consequently there's definitely nothing as gruesome as 'Truck Yeah' or 'Bob That Head' on his resume thankfully, whereas standout tunes as the humungous and then some 'Better Life' and 'Somebody Like You' remain two of my very favorite songs of the past dozen years, as well as two of the format's very biggest hits of that same time period.

Once Luke's tune is done, Capitol Nashville will pour their bottomless bounty of resources into getting 'Cop Car' to #1, by which time I expect 'Chainsaw' to be on the doorstep of the top 5, since I also expect that standout song to reach #1 as well.

'Cop Car' is simply in a very nice 'sweet spot' on the charts right now, between Luke & The Band Perry, as the march to numero uno for all three tunes continues.....

[Deleted]

An ugly update for this one today, -316k in audience. And I like it even less, since it comes on the first day of the new chart week. It could signal that Keith has decided to pull "Cop Car", settle for a #9 peak, and move on (likely to "Good Thing"). That would very much frustrate me, because I think this song has plenty of life left in it. It's moved up slower than any of Keith's other singles have for probably 10 years, but CC is now testing top 10 at Callout America and the sales have remained quite strong.

Furthermore, the chart behind Keith is sooo soft right now it's almost unbelievable. He's so far ahead of Jake and TBP that they'll never catch him, not until CC is ready to start downward (which I hope hasn't happened yet). And even some small-ish gains would see CC up to #7 in two weeks' time, with both Brantley and Eric on the descent now. Rascal Flatts is in push mode, but I don't know if they can keep climbing beyond this week, and Brett Eldredge's song has started to show some vulnerabilities with its age, so a route to the top 5 is there...2-3 weeks from now, it would be quite possible. I think Thomas Rhett is likely to start downward next week as well after securing the #1 spot.

Hopefully this rebounds in tomorrow's update, but I just don't have a good feeling about this.

[Deleted]

"Cop Car" has only had one small daily gain on Mediabase since May 6th...every other day it has lost audience, anywhere from 300-700k a day, and yet somehow it still hasn't begun to free-fall. In fact, today it moved up to a new peak of #8 by default, as both Brantley and Eric fell below.

A large percentage of its audience losses last week came from a Mediabase-only satellite station (Cumulus' Westwood One Hot Country), but even so, CC just looks like it's out of gas. It's just so strange, because I've never seen a song hit the top 10 and tread water for so long.

Back on May 4, Keith was a full 13 million ahead of Jake Owen at Mediabase, and still more than 3 million ahead of Justin Moore. But as of today his lead over Jake has shrunk to 3.3 million, and suddenly Justin is 6.5 million ahead with a bullet of over 500. Jake's song is exploding at iTunes but Keith has easily out-sold Justin and many other songs inside the airplay top 20.

CC is down only 108 spins since this time a week ago, but how much longer can it hang on? I didn't think it would still be hanging by a thread even a week ago, and yet still here it is. It would need to start gaining again, though, to have a shot at the top 5. Thomas Rhett and Rascal Flatts will fall below soon enough, but in addition to posting gains and holding off Jake, Keith would need someone like Brett Eldredge to collapse to have that top 5 chance.

It's all very unlikely though, but since this one hasn't started in free-fall mode yet, I had to try to find a top 5 scenario.

[drummerman2009]

"Cop Car" did a lot better than I thought seeing that it hovered around #11-#12 before entering the Top 10. #8 is not too bad considering it's now his lowest Top 10 to date as all of Keith's singles have reached the Top 5 or better since 1999 and the only song that didn't reach the Top 10 was his first single in 1999 "It's A Love Thing". He now has a 14 year run of Top 10 singles as well.

[.indulgecountry]

May 24, 2014 19:14:41 GMT -5 drummerman2009 said:

"Cop Car" did a lot better than I thought seeing that it hovered around #11-#12 before entering the Top 10. #8 is not too bad considering it's now his lowest Top 10 to date as all of Keith's singles have reached the Top 5 or better since 1999 and the only song that didn't reach the Top 10 was his first single in 1999 "It's A Love Thing". He now has a 14 year run of Top 10 singles as well.

He did peak at #6 a couple times ("For You" and "Once in a Lifetime"), but otherwise, all correct and definitely a strong chart history overall indeed.

[Zazie]

May 24, 2014 19:35:25 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

May 24, 2014 19:14:41 GMT -5 drummerman2009 said:

"Cop Car" did a lot better than I thought seeing that it hovered around #11-#12 before entering the Top 10. #8 is not too bad considering it's now his lowest Top 10 to date as all of Keith's singles have reached the Top 5 or better since 1999 and the only song that didn't reach the Top 10 was his first single in 1999 "It's A Love Thing". He now has a 14 year run of Top 10 singles as well.

He did peak at #6 a couple times ("For You" and "Once in a Lifetime"), but otherwise, all correct and definitely a strong chart history overall indeed.

I counted the years and they added up to a 15-year run of Top 10 singles. That is good proof that I need to find a better use for my time, but nonetheless 2000 through 2014 is 15 years. Either way, it's quite a chart history. Joel Whitburn's point system will usher KU into the all-time top 50 in a couple of years.

[Kanenrá:ke]

May 25, 2014 13:59:23 GMT -5 Zazie said:

May 24, 2014 19:35:25 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

He did peak at #6 a couple times ("For You" and "Once in a Lifetime"), but otherwise, all correct and definitely a strong chart history overall indeed.

I counted the years and they added up to a 15-year run of Top 10 singles. That is good proof that I need to find a better use for my time, but nonetheless 2000 through 2014 is 15 years. Either way, it's quite a chart history. Joel Whitburn's point system will usher KU into the all-time top 50 in a couple of years.

5 more top 3's should get him into the top 50. He could be there in two years time. Sooner if he speeds up his output or gets some christmas cuts to chart.

[Marv]

He has yet to record anything as atrocious as 'Truck Yeah' or '1994', so although I'm disappointed that 'Cop Car' was overtaken by a bunch of mediocre 'bro-country' nonsense, it's still a substantially better song with intelligent lyrics from an artist who's substantially more respected than any of those bro-country practitioners, which explains why 'Better Life' remains very comfortably among the very biggest country singles of the past decade.

[rsmatto]

"Somewhere In My Car" should continue the streak, though it may be the "safest" single from the album yet. I don't know If it'll continue the Gold single success though.