slayZ
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Post by slayZ on Aug 22, 2014 16:53:02 GMT -5
Oh please. Lol It's always cries of "manipulation" when things don't go in the direction some would prefer. If this debuts at #1, it earned the placement. Massive sales, streaming, and airplay. End of. Big Machine has a LONG history of manipulating songs, though. It's no secret some of their huge pushes for #1 are fabricated. To clarify, I don't believe this happened with Taylor, and there's nothing to suggest she didn't earn those numbers, but her label IS openly manipulative quite often, so I see why it was brought up. Sweetheart, when has a label EVER "manipulated" digital numbers? Let's not be ignorant. They can push a song all they want, but if the public doesn't want to buy it, there's quite literally nothing they can do, regardless of how much pull and push they have. Look at Capitol Records with Katy Perry. Pop charts work differently than Country charts. Sure, Big Machine pushes their clients' songs to the top when they're close to it (as do essentially any other country label, except that, you know, Big Machine's clients are bigger so it gets more attention) but nothing can be done to ensure a #1 debut on the Hot 100, the public either likes the song and buys it or not. Hell, the song wasn't even made available to spotify and streaming services, which would have given it a much bigger advantage. The country charts may be corrupt and easily manipulated, but the Hot 100 is a separate and completely different entity.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Aug 22, 2014 17:02:45 GMT -5
This didn't get answered. In terms of number of spins, it could break a record (?), as there are more stations on the BDS panel than there were in the 90s and thereafter- but, probably not in terms of debut position. Highest debut spin total? Well, on Mediabase it looks like she should have no trouble breaking that; the highest that I know of is "Suit & Tie", with 5788 spins. Billboard/BDS? I have no idea. @ the discussion finally coming up here tho. We just talked about it in the chart thread yesterday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2014 17:06:40 GMT -5
It's gonna sell 500k this week, I know it! That's gonna be the first 500k sales week for any song this year (I thought "Happy" would do it after the Oscars but it fell short by just 10k that week) #1 debut on lock!
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Aug 22, 2014 17:17:48 GMT -5
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Tea-why
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Post by Tea-why on Aug 22, 2014 18:37:23 GMT -5
Big Machine has a LONG history of manipulating songs, though. It's no secret some of their huge pushes for #1 are fabricated. To clarify, I don't believe this happened with Taylor, and there's nothing to suggest she didn't earn those numbers, but her label IS openly manipulative quite often, so I see why it was brought up. Sure, Big Machine pushes their clients' songs to the top when they're close to it (as do essentially any other country label, except that, you know, Big Machine's clients are bigger so it gets more attention) What are some examples of this happening (just curious as I know literally nothing about the country chart)?
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Clauss
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Post by Clauss on Aug 22, 2014 19:08:36 GMT -5
Begin Again last year on Country radio.. It had peaked like 10 or so.. and then it gain a HUGE bullet from nothing, and peaked #1 for a day... That's the best example i can give of Big Machine and a Taylor song
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 22, 2014 19:37:48 GMT -5
Billboard reports that SIO is No. 9 on the Building Pop Songs chart (airplay from Monday-Thursday)- how will it not debut in the top 10, given its daily airplay gains?
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Post by countrygirl918 on Aug 22, 2014 19:55:19 GMT -5
Big Machine has a LONG history of manipulating songs, though. It's no secret some of their huge pushes for #1 are fabricated. To clarify, I don't believe this happened with Taylor, and there's nothing to suggest she didn't earn those numbers, but her label IS openly manipulative quite often, so I see why it was brought up. Sweetheart, when has a label EVER "manipulated" digital numbers? Let's not be ignorant. They can push a song all they want, but if the public doesn't want to buy it, there's quite literally nothing they can do, regardless of how much pull and push they have. Look at Capitol Records with Katy Perry. Pop charts work differently than Country charts. Sure, Big Machine pushes their clients' songs to the top when they're close to it (as do essentially any other country label, except that, you know, Big Machine's clients are bigger so it gets more attention) but nothing can be done to ensure a #1 debut on the Hot 100, the public either likes the song and buys it or not. Hell, the song wasn't even made available to spotify and streaming services, which would have given it a much bigger advantage. The country charts may be corrupt and easily manipulated, but the Hot 100 is a separate and completely different entity. That's probably why @carrieflattsfan said she didn't think Big Machine manipulation has occurred with "Shake It Off". She was simply saying Big Machine has a history of being very manipulative on the country airplay charts in the past, so she understood why the concept of chart manipulation was brought up, even though she doesn't think it's occurred in this case. Anyway, Big Machine's strength is the country charts, not the pop charts. If I remember correctly, Universal Music has handled most/all of Taylor's pop releases in the past. Though Big Machine did bring on a pop promoter recently. As for the second comment I bolded, that's simply not true. There are plenty of huge artists on other country labels that don't get as big of chart pushes as Big Machine artists do. Every label does their behind-the-scenes work to try and get the highest peak for their artist, obviously, but Big Machine is extra savvy when it comes to radio manipulation. Which, props to them from a business perspective. They're very smart. Their pushes are significant, and most of the time they work. That's why their pushes get a lot of attention, not because their artists are so much bigger than every other label's artists.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2014 19:56:59 GMT -5
Sweetheart, when has a label EVER "manipulated" digital numbers? Let's not be ignorant. They can push a song all they want, but if the public doesn't want to buy it, there's quite literally nothing they can do, regardless of how much pull and push they have. Look at Capitol Records with Katy Perry. Pop charts work differently than Country charts. Sure, Big Machine pushes their clients' songs to the top when they're close to it (as do essentially any other country label, except that, you know, Big Machine's clients are bigger so it gets more attention) but nothing can be done to ensure a #1 debut on the Hot 100, the public either likes the song and buys it or not. Hell, the song wasn't even made available to spotify and streaming services, which would have given it a much bigger advantage. The country charts may be corrupt and easily manipulated, but the Hot 100 is a separate and completely different entity. That's probably why @carrieflattsfan said she didn't think Big Machine manipulation has occurred with "Shake It Off". She was simply saying Big Machine has a history of being very manipulative on the country airplay charts in the past, so she understood why the concept of chart manipulation was brought up, even though she doesn't think it's occurred in this case. Anyway, Big Machine's strength is the country charts, not the pop charts. If I remember correctly, Universal Music has handled most/all of Taylor's pop releases in the past. Though Big Machine did bring on a pop promoter recently. As for the second comment I bolded, that's simply not true. There are plenty of huge artists on other country labels that don't get as big of chart pushes as Big Machine artists do. Every label does their behind-the-scenes work to try and get the highest peak for their artist, obviously, but Big Machine is extra savvy when it comes to radio manipulation. Which, props to them from a business perspective. They're very smart. Their pushes are significant, and most of the time they work. That's why their pushes get a lot of attention, not because their artists are so much bigger than every other label's artists. Exactly. Thank you for reading this instead of just accusing me of hating. :)
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Eloqueenâ„¢
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Post by Eloqueenâ„¢ on Aug 22, 2014 20:06:53 GMT -5
Country radio itself is a stock pile of manipulation, shaping "x" artist to hit #1 so "y" artist can follow (etc). They (country labels) all play the game. Big Machine just has a stronger poker face. It is a standard and accepted truth with the country community, so I don't even see the point of singling out Big Machine in any negative way or futhermore how it has any relevance to this thread. But I digress...lol.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 22, 2014 20:18:37 GMT -5
Sure, Big Machine pushes their clients' songs to the top when they're close to it (as do essentially any other country label, except that, you know, Big Machine's clients are bigger so it gets more attention) What are some examples of this happening (just curious as I know literally nothing about the country chart)? The Country Mediabase chart is based on a points system, not a straight up spins or airplay system. It's really ridiculously easy to manipulate, so it's essentially a revolving door at the top. It's extremely rare that a song gets into the top 3 and *doesn't* hit #1, but quite a few of these songs get a fairly astronomical push from their labels to secure the #1. This week, for example, Tim McGraw's "Meanwhile Back at Mama's" is getting a sizable push to attempt to secure a #1 on Mediabase. Today's update alone saw it gain 172 new spins over yesterday, and 1.1 million in audience. Last week, Arista/Sony attempted to secure a #1 on Mediabase for Brad Paisley's "River Bank", but their attempt failed, even though by Sunday Brad's bullet was over 800 spins (these numbers probably seem small by pop standards, but are very large for country). Miranda Lambert's "Automatic" and Eric Paslay's "Friday Night" also saw really drastic leaps to #1 on Mediabase. (None of the four examples I've given have hit #1 on Billboard's Country Airplay - they've all peaked at #2 or #3, which is likely more indicative of where they would have had they had a 'natural' peak). Hope that helps. :)
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Post by countrygirl918 on Aug 22, 2014 20:21:02 GMT -5
Country radio itself is a stock pile of manipulation, shaping "x" artist to hit #1 so "y" artist can follow (etc). They (country labels) all play the game. Big Machine just has a stronger poker face. It is a standard and accepted truth with the country community, so I don't even see the point of singling out Big Machine in any negative way or futhermore how it has any relevance to this thread. But I digress...lol. Big Machine was singled out because this is a Taylor Swift thread and she is on their label. The chart manipulation angle was brought up in relation to "Shake It Off," aka the subject of this thread, and I was simply replying to that discussion. That said, feel free to move on! :)
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Eloqueenâ„¢
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Post by Eloqueenâ„¢ on Aug 22, 2014 20:28:44 GMT -5
Country radio itself is a stock pile of manipulation, shaping "x" artist to hit #1 so "y" artist can follow (etc). They (country labels) all play the game. Big Machine just has a stronger poker face. It is a standard and accepted truth with the country community, so I don't even see the point of singling out Big Machine in any negative way or futhermore how it has any relevance to this thread. But I digress...lol. Big Machine was singled out because this is a Taylor Swift thread and she is on their label. The chart manipulation angle was brought up in relation to "Shake It Off," aka the subject of this thread, and I was simply replying to that discussion. That said, feel free to move on! :) Great (btw: my relevance question came from people questioning things centered on country radio manipulation, which has zero relevance to this thread as "Shake It Off" wasn't serviced there). So how about this potential #1 debut? ;)
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slayZ
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Post by slayZ on Aug 22, 2014 21:46:17 GMT -5
That's probably why @carrieflattsfan said she didn't think Big Machine manipulation has occurred with "Shake It Off". She was simply saying Big Machine has a history of being very manipulative on the country airplay charts in the past, so she understood why the concept of chart manipulation was brought up, even though she doesn't think it's occurred in this case. Anyway, Big Machine's strength is the country charts, not the pop charts. If I remember correctly, Universal Music has handled most/all of Taylor's pop releases in the past. Though Big Machine did bring on a pop promoter recently. As for the second comment I bolded, that's simply not true. There are plenty of huge artists on other country labels that don't get as big of chart pushes as Big Machine artists do. Every label does their behind-the-scenes work to try and get the highest peak for their artist, obviously, but Big Machine is extra savvy when it comes to radio manipulation. Which, props to them from a business perspective. They're very smart. Their pushes are significant, and most of the time they work. That's why their pushes get a lot of attention, not because their artists are so much bigger than every other label's artists. Exactly. Thank you for reading this instead of just accusing me of hating. :) I didn't accuse of hating, I accused of ignorance. Thinking someone may be correct or that they even have a valid point for thinking Taylor's huge numbers are "manipulated" simply because Big Machine is savvy when it comes to pushing their clients' songs on country radio is probably as ignorant as those who are contemplating the thought. One thing has nothing to do with the other.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Aug 22, 2014 22:02:47 GMT -5
This is quickly growing on me. It's like this weird combination of "Happy" and "Girlfriend," but it works.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Aug 22, 2014 22:04:38 GMT -5
This is quickly growing on me. It's like this weird combination of "Happy" and "Girlfriend," but it works. To me it sounds like Umbrella/Happy/Hey Ya all in one.
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Clauss
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Post by Clauss on Aug 22, 2014 22:11:54 GMT -5
It sounds umbrella for the drums, and Happy for the claps.. Hey ya.. i don't hear it :v
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Aug 22, 2014 22:12:48 GMT -5
It sounds umbrella for the drums, and Happy for the claps.. Hey ya.. i don't hear it :v It must be just me then
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trebor
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Post by trebor on Aug 23, 2014 3:46:02 GMT -5
SIO makes the "Bubbling Under Hot 100®" Charts entering at #4
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jjose712
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Post by jjose712 on Aug 23, 2014 5:40:47 GMT -5
Begin Again last year on Country radio.. It had peaked like 10 or so.. and then it gain a HUGE bullet from nothing, and peaked #1 for a day... That's the best example i can give of Big Machine and a Taylor song It was more that the song was struggling at 5, and suddenly its bullet exploded. The song was a hit by itself, but payola worked full time to get that number one. Country has a different number one every week, so she is very far from being the only artist that benefited from payola. People complained when billboard country chart included sales. It's true that the change made the chart more predictable, because it's always a big name, but at least people who have sales but not that support of radio (Kacey Musgraves is the biggest example or Hunter Hays lately) have a chance. The truth is country is very very boring right now, totally dominated by males with the same type of songs, and everything that not fits can only aspire to a lower top 10 hit, no matter how much sold
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Pikachu.
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Post by Pikachu. on Aug 23, 2014 6:53:53 GMT -5
POP: 0 16 TAYLOR SWIFT Shake It Off 6560 0 6560 44.755
+1266 Spins +1266 Bullet +7.552 Audience
HAC: 0 14 TAYLOR SWIFT Shake It Off 2367 0 2367 18.452
+464 Spins +464 Bullet +3.379 Audience
AC: 0 21 TAYLOR SWIFT Shake It Off 151 0 151 1.105
+59 Spins +59 Bullet +0.247 Audience
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Peterawr
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hi
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Post by Peterawr on Aug 23, 2014 8:24:03 GMT -5
Bakers gonna bake bake bake bake bake
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 23, 2014 9:45:08 GMT -5
With two more days left (for Monday-Sunday period), if it gains 1,200 spins average both days, that would take it to 8,900+ spins (Mediabase).
With the building BDS info, yah, top 10 entry looks like a given, therefore becoming the highest-debuting track since the inception of Billboard's Mainstream Top 40/Pop Songs chart.
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Aug 23, 2014 10:51:17 GMT -5
With two more days left (for Monday-Sunday period), if it gains 1,200 spins average both days, that would take it to 8,900+ spins (Mediabase). With the building BDS info, yah, top 10 entry looks like a given, therefore becoming the highest-debuting track since the inception of Billboard's Mainstream Top 40/Pop Songs chart. For H100 purpose - M/T contibuted (30MM+?) so that's out. Of course, she gain part of that back next M, Tu, so she's around 30-35MM for H100 so far? Can't really get a good gauge because we don't get charts consistently anymore. I wonder how big of a digital leap Anaconda will get Sunday on top of strong streaming. Unfortunately, if Taylor hits #2, you're going to see press about Taylor's "full-on" pop failing to meet expectations, loss of country base, etc. You know that's how some press will spin.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Aug 23, 2014 11:32:22 GMT -5
With two more days left (for Monday-Sunday period), if it gains 1,200 spins average both days, that would take it to 8,900+ spins (Mediabase). With the building BDS info, yah, top 10 entry looks like a given, therefore becoming the highest-debuting track since the inception of Billboard's Mainstream Top 40/Pop Songs chart. For H100 purpose - M/T contibuted (30MM+?) so that's out. Of course, she gain part of that back next M, Tu, so she's around 30-35MM for H100 so far? Can't really get a good gauge because we don't get charts consistently anymore. I wonder how big of a digital leap Anaconda will get Sunday on top of strong streaming. Unfortunately, if Taylor hits #2, you're going to see press about Taylor's "full-on" pop failing to meet expectations, loss of country base, etc. You know that's how some press will spin. I don't agree. You will see posts here talking about it, but I doubt any news source will mention it in a negative way. This is going to be a HUGE hit. If it peaks at #2, no credible news source will say a #2 peak is not meeting expectations. Only people who will talk about it, will be posters on here and other message board communities.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 23, 2014 11:47:18 GMT -5
For H100 purpose - M/T contibuted (30MM+?) so that's out. Of course, she gain part of that back next M, Tu, so she's around 30-35MM for H100 so far? Can't really get a good gauge because we don't get charts consistently anymore. I wonder how big of a digital leap Anaconda will get Sunday on top of strong streaming. Unfortunately, if Taylor hits #2, you're going to see press about Taylor's "full-on" pop failing to meet expectations, loss of country base, etc. You know that's how some press will spin. I don't agree. You will see posts here talking about it, but I doubt any news source will mention it in a negative way. This is going to be a HUGE hit. If it peaks at #2, no credible news source will say a #2 peak is not meeting expectations. Only people who will talk about it, will be posters on here and other message board communities. I agree that it probably won't be a big deal this coming week. It appears this song could still do 500K+, so while I still think people are wearing rose-colored glasses to pretend that's perfect and ignore the decline, nobody is realistically going to rip on that number. It's still 500K+, the largest since Katy Perry's "Roar" came out in 2013. Also it's also important to note that the overwhelming majority of music industry data originates with Billboard, and Billboard's writers almost never frame performances negatively (including ones that are FAR worse than a single doing 500K+). So that will help curb whatever ranting there theoretically could have been about sales. And when you look at the monstrous airplay and strong streaming, this song clearly had a great week overall. You can't really "expect" a chart position - you can only anticipate how a song will fare on the individual components of that chart - and "Shake it Off" did well on all of them. If it somehow loses #1 (and I really don't think it will), it's because the Anaconda video was way bigger than expected or because AATB is way hotter on iTunes and radio than anyone expected. It's a positive for those songs, not a negative for Swift. -- I do, however, think the "country vs. pop" issuecould come into play as part of a broader discussion. If the next few instant gratification singles underperform their "Red" counterparts (especially since songs like "Begin Again" were considered "country") and if the album does notably worse than "Red," people will -- fairly or not -- wonder whether the loss of support from country hurt her. Down market or not, Taylor Swift is theoretically as hot as she ever was. She has also consistently been immune to market declines. So "the market's down overall - what do you expect" will not be a sufficient answer here. People will want to know how someone who is at the peak of her career star power-wise suddenly lost her immunity to the macro issue. Again, I'm not necessarily saying that's fair - but I do think it's a discussion people will have.
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Aug 23, 2014 11:54:05 GMT -5
For H100 purpose - M/T contibuted (30MM+?) so that's out. Of course, she gain part of that back next M, Tu, so she's around 30-35MM for H100 so far? Can't really get a good gauge because we don't get charts consistently anymore. I wonder how big of a digital leap Anaconda will get Sunday on top of strong streaming. Unfortunately, if Taylor hits #2, you're going to see press about Taylor's "full-on" pop failing to meet expectations, loss of country base, etc. You know that's how some press will spin. I don't agree. You will see posts here talking about it, but I doubt any news source will mention it in a negative way. This is going to be a HUGE hit. If it peaks at #2, no credible news source will say a #2 peak is not meeting expectations. Only people who will talk about it, will be posters on here and other message board communities. I hope we don't find out. The fact the media picked up that "racist" tweet from the unknown rapper who didn't even see video, makes me believe that if they can create a story out of nothing, they will. Taylor is high profile and made a big stand by declaring full-on pop; if Nikki trumps her because of streams next week, it will be news and it won't be positive for Taylor - especially when they note that WANEGBT sold 600+ and this under 500 - they aren't going to put in context.
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Flip
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Post by Flip on Aug 23, 2014 12:01:30 GMT -5
Slaylor slays again
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 23, 2014 12:17:40 GMT -5
I don't agree. You will see posts here talking about it, but I doubt any news source will mention it in a negative way. This is going to be a HUGE hit. If it peaks at #2, no credible news source will say a #2 peak is not meeting expectations. Only people who will talk about it, will be posters on here and other message board communities. I hope we don't find out. The fact the media picked up that "racist" tweet from the unknown rapper who didn't even see video, makes me believe that if they can create a story out of nothing, they will. Taylor is high profile and made a big stand by declaring full-on pop; if Nikki trumps her because of streams next week, it will be news and it won't be positive for Taylor - especially when they note that WANEGBT sold 600+ and this under 500 - they aren't going to put in context. Earl Sweatshirt is not an unknown rapper. And he was far from the only person who commented that it was racist - reporters just wanted to add a celebrity perspective to the issue. I agree with you that his opinion--and any opinion saying this is racist, because one view of the ENTIRE video so clearly tells you that it's not--was ridiculous, but I can't agree that there was nothing to this story. That is especially true since there has been a ton of dialogue about female white pop singers "appropriating" culture for their performances and videos. Sky Ferreira, Avril Lavigne and Katy Perry have all come under the same fire. Fairly or not, this fits into that broader narrative. What's funny is that there literally WAS nothing to the story about Blurred Lines being "rapey" until one random blogger wrote about it. And yet, because people so many people AGREE with that criticism of "Blurred Lines" (unlike the Taylor Swift's video is racist claim, which is silly) no one would say "they created that story out of nothing." But they actually did. "especially when they note that WANEGBT sold 600+ and this under 500 - they aren't going to put in context."But that is the context. Whether you're praising or condemning this song, I don't see how you write about the sales figure without writing about what her last single did. Just like I don't see how you write about the sales figure without saying it was the biggest since last August.
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Aug 24, 2014 5:56:44 GMT -5
POP: -- 15 TAYLOR SWIFT Shake It Off 7787 0 7787 52.688
+1227 Spins +1227 Bullet +7.933 Audience
HOT AC: -- 10 TAYLOR SWIFT Shake It Off 2856 0 2856 22.183
+489 Spins +489 Bullet +3.731 Audience
AC: -- 20 TAYLOR SWIFT Shake It Off 193 0 193 1.271
+42 Spins +42 Bullet +0.166 Audience
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