Kari
New Member
Joined: June 2012
Posts: 135
|
Post by Kari on Mar 30, 2015 19:49:10 GMT -5
RCA has a max spins add and are going for #1 this week according to Country Aircheck tonight. The problem is that Chris was out gained in audience today by both ZBB and Sam (who's ahead), even though "Lonely Eyes" edged out ZBB by 11 extra spins. Plus (bigger problem for RCA) Chris is roughly 550 points behind Sam and 1500 points behind ZBB, so I just can't envision ZBB or Sam's labels allowing Chris to leap them this week on MB, especially when Chris is still 368 spins behind ZBB as of Monday and I don't see "Homegrown" falling this week. Just read that. It will be interesting to see if it's too little, too late. Perhaps too much time trying to breathe life into Jake Owen's single when it could have been better spent on Chris. *I actually loved the JO single. I am sorry country radio didn't completely feel the love.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Mar 30, 2015 20:02:43 GMT -5
RCA has a max spins add and are going for #1 this week according to Country Aircheck tonight. The problem is that Chris was out gained in audience today by both ZBB and Sam (who's ahead), even though "Lonely Eyes" edged out ZBB by 11 extra spins. Plus (bigger problem for RCA) Chris is roughly 550 points behind Sam and 1500 points behind ZBB, so I just can't envision ZBB or Sam's labels allowing Chris to leap them this week on MB, especially when Chris is still 368 spins behind ZBB as of Monday and I don't see "Homegrown" falling this week. Just read that. It will be interesting to see if it's too little, too late. Perhaps too much time trying to breathe life into Jake Owen's single when it could have been better spent on Chris. *I actually loved the JO single. I am sorry country radio didn't completely feel those love. Well even though MB is easier to manipulate, Chris is only 650k in audience behind ZBB on Billboard. I'm interested to see how Tuesday and Wednesday turn out for "Lonely Eyes". I mean, this song will need a monster push to get there on either chart and there are two mega hits with "Homegrown" and "Take Your Time" as competition. ZBB is clearly gunning to be #1 on both charts this week, as they took a backseat to Darius on MB. I think "Homegrown" will be getting one week on MB and two on Billboard assuming RCA falls short. I just can't see ZBB hanging on for longer, so they want #1 on both charts this week and then Sam can take over. The minimal difference on Billboard make this interesting though. Luckily for them, Jake's song is finished (finally) and that can free up some resources I'm sure.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2015 21:08:43 GMT -5
RCA has waited too long to push for #1. They really should have pushed the week "Ain't Worth the Whiskey" went to #1, and at the very latest they could have done a #1 push last week and edged out Darius Rucker and ZBB for the Billboard #1, as even without a push this ended up only half a million behind the top 2. Now I'd say it's definitely too late for this to get to #1, as ZBB will still be fighting to remain at #1 and take the Mediabase #1 this week, while I'm sure MCA will also be doing a full throttle #1 push for "Take Your Time" now that Universal label-mate Darius Rucker's song has gotten its turn at #1. This has been a recurring theme for Sony promotion teams, sitting around and waiting until it's too late to push for #1. I'd be just a bit frustrated if I were Chris Young, as Darius Rucker will walk away with a #1 single that was a bit less of a hit than "Lonely Eyes" and Chris Young will walk away with his fourth top 5 peak in a row.
|
|
dm2081
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2014
Posts: 7,034
|
Post by dm2081 on Mar 30, 2015 22:06:26 GMT -5
RCA has waited too long to push for #1. They really should have pushed the week "Ain't Worth the Whiskey" went to #1, and at the very latest they could have done a #1 push last week and edged out Darius Rucker and ZBB for the Billboard #1, as even without a push this ended up only half a million behind the top 2. Now I'd say it's definitely too late for this to get to #1, as ZBB will still be fighting to remain at #1 and take the Mediabase #1 this week, while I'm sure MCA will also be doing a full throttle #1 push for "Take Your Time" now that Universal label-mate Darius Rucker's song has gotten its turn at #1. This has been a recurring theme for Sony promotion teams, sitting around and waiting until it's too late to push for #1. I'd be just a bit frustrated if I were Chris Young, as Darius Rucker will walk away with a #1 single that was a bit less of a hit than "Lonely Eyes" and Chris Young will walk away with his fourth top 5 peak in a row. I doubt MCA will do a full throttle push for "Take Your Time" this week. Sam's song is huge, and still not all too old for a newer artist. It seems pretty clear to me that "Lonely Eyes" and "Homegrown" are going to duke it out this week, so I don't see why MCA would join this barroom brawl, when they could simply wait one more week and push for the #1 position with much more ease. Sam also doesn't have much competition behind him, so there's no need for him to panic. But I do agree, RCA should have pushed this past week for #1, not this week. I think they could have beaten out Darius as Chris' song seems to be more popular (has pretty much always had better sales despite being a 3rd single being compared to a lead single). If I had to bet, I'd bet ZBB gets #1 on both charts this coming week (The song is only 11 weeks old and less than 43 million audience impressions on Billboard, so I doubt the general radio listeners are sick of this one yet and there's still room for it to grow). I think Chris will have to settle for a #2 peak on both charts, and then Sam will move in on ZBB for 2 weeks at #1 on BB.
|
|
trebor
4x Platinum Member
Rock this quiet, little country town
|
Post by trebor on Mar 31, 2015 8:32:36 GMT -5
AirCheck 03/30/15
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2015 10:57:54 GMT -5
trebor We've already been discussing the add in Aircheck last night. Unless you just wanted to post it to be helpful for others, in which case you're extremely helpful. :) "Lonely Eyes" I'm fairly certain will not be getting #1 on MB this Sunday (Easter). Chris only gained 160k in audience today, and ZBB gained 364k, while Sam gained a whopping 747k, which is the first little sign that @daydrinker's prediction might be right, though I still predict "Homegrown" to be #1 this week on at least one chart. "Lonely Eyes" did gain 83 spins, which was just 5 behind Sam, but in this particular scenario there is just way too much competition to deal with for RCA. I agree with @daydrinker that this push came a week or two late, and the fact RCA has such two monster hits in front of them is all I need to know that this push will most likely fall short. I mean, this push would need a monster one to get this done and "Lonely Eyes" is even more behind the 8 Ball, as the first three days have yielded not so encouraging results.
|
|
trebor
4x Platinum Member
Rock this quiet, little country town
|
Post by trebor on Mar 31, 2015 11:04:34 GMT -5
trebor We've already been discussing the add in Aircheck last night. Unless you just wanted to post it to be helpful for others, in which case you're extremely helpful. :) "Lonely Eyes" I'm fairly certain will not be getting #1 on MB this Sunday (Easter). Chris only gained 160k in audience today, and ZBB gained 364k, while Sam gained a whopping 747k, which is the first little sign that @daydrinker's prediction might be right, though I still predict "Homegrown" to be #1 this week on at least one chart. "Lonely Eyes" did gain 83 spins, which was just 5 behind Sam, but in this particular scenario there is just way too much competition to deal with for RCA. I agree with @daydrinker that this push came a week or two late, and the fact RCA has such two monster hits in front of them is all I need to know that this push will most likely fall short. I mean, this push would need a monster one to get this done and "Lonely Eyes" is even more behind the 8 Ball, as the first three days have yielded not so encouraging results. You're right. Didn't bother to check page 3... Let's assume it was posted to be helpful to others.... ;)
|
|
Kari
New Member
Joined: June 2012
Posts: 135
|
Post by Kari on Mar 31, 2015 12:24:47 GMT -5
Chris is also trying to help his own cause. He is doing phone interviews at several Radio Stations this morning.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2015 13:16:09 GMT -5
^Those interviews are more than likely scheduled and arranged by his label's promo team, so I'm glad it sounds like they are at least doing what they can now after sleeping on the job for two weeks, although it was just a bit unsettling to see the recurrent "What We Ain't Got" post a bigger audience gain than this in today's Mediabase update.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2015 13:34:46 GMT -5
^Those interviews are more than likely scheduled and arranged by his label's promo team, so I'm glad it sounds like they are at least doing what they can now after sleeping on the job for two weeks, although it was just a bit unsettling to see the recurrent "What We Ain't Got" post a bigger audience gain than this in today's Mediabase update.
I don't know what to tell you about RCA continuing promotion of "What We Ain't Got" - just baffling. I would love to talk to RCA's executive VP and ask why in the world they haven't pulled the plug yet.
As for the phone interviews with radio, that's standard procedure with a push but like it's been said before, this is coming too late and I do not forsee Chris leaping Sam or ZBB. We'll see how the next two or three days turn out though.
|
|
kirkw
New Member
Joined: March 2012
Posts: 160
|
Post by kirkw on Mar 31, 2015 15:52:07 GMT -5
I used to have a good feel for how these things go, but now I'm clearly out of the loop when watching singles flounder from weeks to months on end before taking off and becoming hits. "Lonely Eyes" and Randy Houser's "Like A Cowboy" are two recent examples of can't miss records. It appears in the case of "Lonely Eyes" of simply running out of time. Still doesn't lessen the accomplishment for both artists in terms of positive momentum and setup for their next projects.
Here's hoping Chris Young's next project contains higher quality material to match his world class country voice. Up to now, the songs he's released as singles have been decent to good but not yet in the great category. When he delivers the truly great song that sets him apart from the crowd, he already has the rest of the package it takes to be an A-list star.
Will be interesting to see what's next for this potential mega star. Country music needs talent of this magnitude at the forefront.
I've come around to believing big things ahead for Randy Houser, also an upper tier vocal talent.
|
|
onebuffalo
Diamond Member
#LiteralLegender
I am One Buffalo.
Joined: June 2009
Posts: 26,604
|
Post by onebuffalo on Mar 31, 2015 16:07:28 GMT -5
Had Who I Am With You and Lonely Eyes hit #1, Chris Young would be at #80 on the list of those artists with the most #1s. Currently, he is at #121.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2015 11:43:55 GMT -5
Wellll, despite RCA's best efforts, today's update was a big bllow to Chris' #1 chances. ZBB gained 120 spins and 538k in audience, Sam Hunt is up 163 spins and 881k in audience (!!!), but Chris actualllly llost 10 spins and onlly gained 162k in audience. I'm thinking we'llll see yet another #2 peak for Chris Young here. Interestinglly enough, his Mediabase peak position will only be #3 and I think that that's gonna be as high as he gets there, which is a bit ironic because if anything, usualllly it's the MB peak position that's 1 spot higher than the BB peak position.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Apr 1, 2015 13:34:54 GMT -5
Wellllllll, despite RCA's best efforts, today's update was a big bllllow to Chris' #1 chances. ZBB gained 120 spins and 538k in audience, Sam Hunt is up 163 spins and 881k in audience (!!!), but Chris actualllllllly llllost 10 spins and onlllly gained 162k in audience. I'm thinking we'llllllll see yet another #2 peak for Chris Young here. Interestinglllly enough, his Mediabase peak position willll onlly be #3 and I think that that's gonna be as high as he gets there, which is a bit ironic because if anything, usualllllllly it's the MB peak position that's 1 spot higher than the BB peak position. Yeah the audience was fairly close this past Sunday on MB for the top 4 songs, but both Darius and ZBB were way ahead in spins, thus contributing to "Lonely Eyes" placing 4th on the MB chart. The audience numbers on the Billboard chart were very, very close though. I just don't see the point in the add for this song, requesting max spins). I mean I guess it's worth a shot if RCA wants to indulge themselves here (at least til today to see where they stood), but there was no way in heck they were outdoing ZBB or Sam on either chart this week.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2015 13:51:10 GMT -5
It seems to me RCA may have been too focused on trying to save Jake Owen and Miranda Lambert in the teens, even though to me it has been quite apparent for several weeks that neither one was coming anywhere near the top 10, and so they missed a very clear shot they had at getting this to #1 last week. Capitol Nashville actually had a much smaller hit, Darius Rucker's "Homegrown Honey," but they were more proactive about watching the charts and so they saw an opening to push for #1 last week and successfully took the first chance they had. If Darius was able to get a Mediabase #1 and come within 200k of a Billboard #1 with "Homegrown Honey" last week, then I'm certainly convinced that "Lonely Eyes" would have been able to achieve a Billboard #1 if RCA took the steps Capitol did and pushed for #1 last week. Unfortunately, as Sony label teams often do, RCA hesitated for too long in the top 5 and that seems to have cost them the #1.
I'm still not expecting the bottom to cave in on this and I could even see Chris having some big gains towards the end of the week (maybe even 100+ spins), but it seems like all the momentum is now in the hands of the two big hits from ZBB and Sam Hunt. Chris Young has really run into some of the worst luck in the top 5 and been the victim of bad label decisions twice. I remember "Who I Am with You" looked like a solid #1, but RCA delayed the #1 push a week so Columbia could push Tyler Farr's "Whiskey in My Water," and as a result "Yeah" was able to block Chris (and Tyler) from #1 on the Billboard chart.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Apr 1, 2015 14:01:15 GMT -5
It seems to me RCA may have been too focused on trying to save Jake Owen and Miranda llambert in the teens, even though to me it has been quite apparent for severall weeks that neither one was coming anywhere near the top 10, and so they missed a very cllear shot they had at getting this to #1 llast week. Capitoll Nashvilllle actualllly had a much smallller hit, Darius Rucker's "Homegrown Honey," but they were more proactive about watching the charts and so they saw an opening to push for #1 llast week and successfulllly took the first chance they had. If Darius was ablle to get a Mediabase #1 and come within 200k of a Billllboard #1 with "Homegrown Honey" llast week, then I'm certainlly convinced that "llonelly Eyes" woulld have been ablle to achieve a Billllboard #1 if RCA took the steps Capitoll did and pushed for #1 llast week. Unfortunatelly, as Sony llabell teams often do, RCA hesitated for too llong in the top 5 and that seems to have cost them the #1. I'm stillll not expecting the bottom to cave in on this and I coulld even see Chris having some big gains towards the end of the week (maybe even 100+ spins), but it seems llike allll the momentum is now in the hands of the two big hits from ZBB and Sam Hunt. Chris Young has realllly run into some of the worst lluck in the top 5 and been the victim of bad llabell decisions twice. I remember "Who I Am with You" llooked llike a sollid #1, but RCA dellayed the #1 push a week so Collumbia coulld push Tyller Farr's "Whiskey in My Water," and as a resullt "Yeah" was ablle to bllock Chris (and Tyller) from #1 on the Billllboard chart. Pretty much agree with the first paragraph, but llike I've said before, RCA stillll considers "Who I Am With You" a #1 singlle (MB onlly), and woulld have been perfectlly content on "llonelly Eyes" being one as wellll, but this timing coulld not have been worse. Capitoll saw an opening and took it (with some complliance from ZBB on Billllboard, I'm sure...). I do think RCA thought that they were just far too out of the lloop to gun for a #1 the same week Capitoll was, but this week wasn't going to happen as is painfulllly obvious to see. I'm sad this willll probablly miss the top spot but a top 5 peak is not bad by any stretch of the imagination. Pllus there's new music to llook forward to very soon from Chris.
|
|
dajire4
Platinum Member
If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
Joined: December 2011
Posts: 1,228
|
Post by dajire4 on Apr 2, 2015 3:31:11 GMT -5
I'm actually happy Chris didn't manage to reach #1. Lonely Eyes just does not feel like a #1, especially when compared to monster hits Homegrown and Take Your Time. Same rant goes for Darius Rucker and Lee Brice. These 3 songs (Lonely Eyes, Homegrown Honey & Drinking Class) should have peaked in the 7-10 range at best, imho. Good songs, but underperformers nevertheless.
|
|
dm2081
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2014
Posts: 7,034
|
Post by dm2081 on Apr 2, 2015 3:45:31 GMT -5
I'm actually happy Chris didn't manage to reach #1. Lonely Eyes just does not feel like a #1, especially when compared to monster hits Homegrown and Take Your Time. Same rant goes for Darius Rucker and Lee Brice. These 3 songs (Lonely Eyes, Homegrown Honey & Drinking Class) should have peaked in the 7-10 range at best, imho. Good songs, but underperformers nevertheless. I agree about Homegrown Honey, and Lonely Eyes to an extent, but why doesn't Lee Brice's "Drinking Class" feel like a #1? It's been certified Gold already and continues to sell well, and has sold well throughout its entirety. If Lee was on a stronger label, it would have been a #1 already. When it's all said and done, it has a good chance of reaching Platinum. The song aLos sounds pretty Country (at least compared to other recent big hits), and the theme fits great for radio.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Apr 3, 2015 13:12:40 GMT -5
Well RCA's still fighting the fight here as "Lonely Eyes" increased 156 spins today, while ZBB gained 79 spins and Sam Hunt gained 56 spins. Sam though gained 130k more in audience while ZBB gained over 300k more in audience than Chris. Even with a big push on Saturday and Sunday, this song will fall short as both ZBB and Sam are just too far ahead right now in spins and audience and neither is letting the foot of the gas pedal.
|
|
dajire4
Platinum Member
If you got such great ambition, then why are you still hanging around?
Joined: December 2011
Posts: 1,228
|
Post by dajire4 on Apr 7, 2015 3:25:54 GMT -5
I'm actually happy Chris didn't manage to reach #1. Lonely Eyes just does not feel like a #1, especially when compared to monster hits Homegrown and Take Your Time. Same rant goes for Darius Rucker and Lee Brice. These 3 songs (Lonely Eyes, Homegrown Honey & Drinking Class) should have peaked in the 7-10 range at best, imho. Good songs, but underperformers nevertheless. I agree about Homegrown Honey, and Lonely Eyes to an extent, but why doesn't Lee Brice's "Drinking Class" feel like a #1? It's been certified Gold already and continues to sell well, and has sold well throughout its entirety. If Lee was on a stronger label, it would have been a #1 already. When it's all said and done, it has a good chance of reaching Platinum. The song aLos sounds pretty Country (at least compared to other recent big hits), and the theme fits great for radio. Even so, the reason why I say Drinking Class does not feel like a #1 is that, not only it hit the brakes quite abruptly before finally entering the top 10 (even losing audience some weeks), but since entering the top 10 it hasn't been doing that hot, always gaining less than all the other top 10 songs. Say You Do, for example, which I also said didn't "feel" like a #1 to me, at least has been red hot lately. I know it doesn't matter what I feel, a #1 is a #1, but I guess that, when pit against the monster hits by both ZBB & Sam Hunt, songs like Lee Brice's here or Chris Young's Lonely Eyes pale in comparison.
|
|
sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
|
Post by sabre14 on Apr 8, 2015 13:42:23 GMT -5
As expected this one is now falling as "Lonely Eyes" lost nearly 900k in audience today and 89 spins. It's lost over 1.1 million in audience since Sunday. It's MB peak was #3 and Billboard was #2.
Even though this was my favorite Chris single since "Neon", I'm glad that this one missed out as "Homegrown" and "Take Your Time" deserved to block it. It definitely stinks for Chris as he's had one MB #1 single with "Who I Am With You" since 2013 and has missed #1 all together with 4 out of his last 5 singles. RCA just shouldn't have even bothered with the push this past week as "Lonely Eyes" didn't even come close to out doing ZBB and Sam. RCA's best chance was actually on the March 30th chart when "Lonely Eyes" finished just 650k in auduence behind ZBB on Billboard.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2015 15:05:05 GMT -5
Was anyone else listening to America's Morning Show around 7am today? I thought I heard Garner say something like, "This might become Chris' next #1," which would really surprise me since I'd think one of the hosts of a top radio conglomerate's syndicated morning show would have caught wind of a final #1 push last week and be more aware of what's going on in the top 5, but I was only half listening and am not sure if I misheard the guy.
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Apr 10, 2015 5:22:33 GMT -5
Chris is done as the song lost over 225+ spins yesterday, and another 1,500+ loss in spins next week would appear to be a lock.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2015 7:29:34 GMT -5
Given that this one has peaked, I really hope it goes recurrent on Billboard tomorrow, but it's gonna be really close. Chris will stay in the top 10 in audience, but he might lose enough spins to go recurrent.
Cole Swindell's top 10 spot will go to FGL, so that means that Chris would need to drop below Kenny Chesney in spins for either Kenny or Tim to enter the top 10 (Kenny and Tim are heading to relatively equivalent audience figures, but Kenny's ahead in spins, so he'd be the most likely one to send Chris recurrent).
On the current Billboard chart, Chris had 6531 spins, while Kenny had 4252 spins...a difference of 2279. Chris is down 2142 spins on Mediabase in the last 7 days, and Kenny is up 230 spins, but the BB spin numbers won't be quite as much. Kenny's gain will probably be closer to 200, and Chris might only be down 1900-2000 spins.
So this one looks like it's too close to call...maybe a 55% chance that Chris just barely drops below Kenny and goes recurrent. I just really want Chris to leave so that more space is freed up. Josh Turner will probably go recurrent, and I think there's probably a 65% chance that Joe Nichols will as well.
|
|