zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Mar 13, 2015 16:02:22 GMT -5
The video has 2.2 million plays in two days. I'm thinking that it may just be the chart hiccup. They'll right this ship... Which means it'll march up the mongrel chart better than the airplay chart. Miranda Lambert maybe looking at a #1 on the former chart. Doubtful as Sam Hunt also just released his music video for "Take Your Time" and LRW doesn't come close to touching TYT's sales/streaming/airplay.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2015 16:42:15 GMT -5
jhomes87, what is happening to this song? I see it had a very BAD UPDATE today on spins (-75), and is still losing audience. Is this song done or is it facing a hiccup in the top 20 as it's only barely 60 days old. I see her bullet is now a -99, OUCH!!! This one is certainly struggling, but it really hasn't been doing very well for a while now. It's been moving pretty slowly. Not nearly as slow as this week has been, but not as fast as you'd expect a Miranda single to move...which means that this had been moving about as fast as I expected, since I've never seen this song as a likely #1. It'll still easily get into the top 15 yet and possibly top 10, and the sales and video streams are really, really high now (higher than I expected--apparently the video has gone over well with a lot of people). Videos can sometimes help sales but this is at the high end of the "videos helping sales" category. I figured there'd be an uptick in sales but not of the magnitude that we're currently seeing. If the video is going to help this one rebound on the airplay charts, that won't come until next week, since the video was only just released and most stations have already set their rotations (general rotation levels, that is) for this week. By the time Monday or Tuesday rolls around, some PD's might start to bump this one up in rotation after seeing the strong sales and streaming performance.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Mar 13, 2015 18:50:11 GMT -5
The video is pairing well with a recent interview Lambert did with Elle regarding body/image that was released at the same time, so I assume that's why the streams are much higher than anyone expected. She looks incredible, and this piece with Elle tags along with it for a dual promo opportunity.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2015 15:21:25 GMT -5
In regards to the notion that there will be more variety on country radio now that the bro-phase has been saturated (as alluded to at CRS, I believe)...I almost wonder if some artists are releasing songs that they don't really mind how they are received at radio. My greatest proof for this would be this tune, "Girl Crush" and "Like a Wrecking Ball." All are really unique songs in their own way, none of them anything close to what could be considered "safe" for radio.
The three respective artists know that THEIR fans are going to love the tunes, as is apparent from the sales of the songs (#3, #5, #8 on Country iTunes respectively) and now the video views for this one. And the thing is, these songs don't even have as much crossover appeal as a song like "Take Your Time" does which is undoubtedly garnering sales from non-Country fans.
After looking at the chart this morning and seeing "Say You Do", "What We Ain't Got", "She Don't Love You", "Lay Low" and this tune experiencing some slowdown all at once, I can't help but wonder what is going on at radio right now, and more importantly: how many people are beginning not to care?
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Mar 14, 2015 23:50:15 GMT -5
I like the video - it's nothing too special, but it's fun, and she looks great. I can see it helping the song.
I love the idea that artists are starting to release riskier and less 'safe' songs to radio. Even though I don't always enjoy all of them, it's so nice to see some variety back on the charts.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 15, 2015 10:41:35 GMT -5
Definitely a very rough week for "Little Red Wagon" as it lost 815k in audience and 72 spins. Miranda gained 5.5 million in audience the previous two weeks combined.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Mar 17, 2015 9:16:34 GMT -5
What's going on with the song? Considering "Somethin' Bad" under-performed and "Something in the Water" was blocked from #1 by male singles from older albums, it's becoming clear that not even Carrie and Miranda can break up the boys' club at country radio.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 17, 2015 9:38:57 GMT -5
What's going on with the song? Considering "Somethin' Bad" under-performed and "Something in the Water" was blocked from #1 by male singles from older albums, it's becoming clear that not even Carrie and Miranda can break up the boys' club at country radio. Coincidentally, the next highest female on the chart is Carrie Underwood. I hope her Little Toy Guns breaks the monopoly of male artists/groups.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 17, 2015 11:41:33 GMT -5
What's going on with the song? Considering "Somethin' Bad" under-performed and "Something in the Water" was blocked from #1 by male singles from older albums, it's becoming clear that not even Carrie and Miranda can break up the boys' club at country radio. People that don't follow the charts and casually follow this board, would think "Something In The Water" peaked at like #12 or something. That song missed #1 because Arista's horrible timing with its peak. They just misjudged how difficult it would be to get to #1 the week they gunned for it and got burned. It was still a big hit. Most country fans don't care it got #2 - they still heard it a ton on their local station. "Little Red Wagon" is obviously being deemed polarizing right now to get its spins per week into heavy rotation. If you look at LRW's spin increases for the leading spinners for this song, only one saw an increase of more than 8 spins (11) in Indianapolis (WLHK). This to me is a case of the type of song affecting it's chart run, rather than the artist. Carrie and Miranda have and will continue to have great success on country radio. This release was a gamble in terms of airplay success, but sales wise its doing just fine. Even if this does flame out before the top 10 (which I eluded might happen), Miranda will be just fine at radio and I'm sure will have many more top 5 or #1 singles.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2015 13:04:04 GMT -5
I can't blame country radio for this particular chart run as the Callout scores indicate "Little Red Wagon" to be a pretty polarizing song. I think the problem may be that listeners are harder on polarizing stuff from female voices than male voices. According to the Mediabase Callout Survey linked in page 4 of this thread, the four songs with the highest "negativity rates" are all from females ("Little Red Wagon" at #1, "Somethin' Bad" at #2, "Something in the Water" at #3, and "Trouble" at #4). "Girl Crush" is at #6 and "Automatic" is at #8. I am especially surprised to see "Automatic" so high on this list as there's absolutely nothing polarizing about the song. So I think one of the problems here may be what country radio programmers have cited before: Females don't tend to test well, for whatever reason.
Miranda's team will probably release one more single from this record after "Little Red Wagon" is finished its chart run (which may be very soon), which I would predict to be "Smokin' and Drinkin'." This late in the era I'm not sure Miranda has enough momentum to make a run to #1 but I can definitely see that song getting her back into the top 5.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 17, 2015 14:29:57 GMT -5
I am especially surprised to see "Automatic" so high on this list as there's absolutely nothing polarizing about the song. I agree with your most, overall, but even though I like "Automatic", I have now encountered quite a few folks who don't care for the lyrics in that song - especially my father. He said he is not a fan of the song because of the grouping in the little technology things like taping a radio show or laundry lines and switching to staying in a marriage to work your problems out. I can sort of see a little decisiveness with that particular song (it's already been pointed out on Pulse), but at the same time, nowhere near the level to justify an overly negative call-out score, at least IMO. The point about familiarity with male voices vs. female voices and that being a factor in why listeners aren't as comfortable with those songs since there's considerably less of them seems like such a simple factor, but I do feel its relative when there are this many examples. Though the grating style of "Little Red Wagon" isn't exactly helping.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Mar 17, 2015 14:45:24 GMT -5
There was an interesting article in last night's BCU talking about if how this is were a few years ago, Miranda's album would have 8-10 singles (like Shania'a) but in this market, with declining album and single sales, it doesn't seem worth it. Gary Overton was quoted as saying something like every single that gets released is another expense to the label. Of course, with today's new Gary will no longer be there, so it will be interesting to see what if any changes this has on the situation. Of course, 8-10 singles isn't going to happen, but I could still see this album having 5-6.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 17, 2015 14:49:46 GMT -5
^I saw that too and wondered how long it would take ten singles to chart with today's country chart moving so slowly (about a decade or more). Miranda Lambert would not be stranger in having five singles from a CD as she did it with Revolution and Four The Record.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 17, 2015 14:51:47 GMT -5
There was an interesting article in last night's BCU talking about if how this is were a few years ago, Miranda's album would have 8-10 singles (like Shania'a) but in this market, with declining album and single sales, it doesn't seem worth it. Gary Overton was quoted as saying something like every single that gets released is another expense to the label. Of course, with today's new Gary will no longer be there, so it will be interesting to see what if any changes this has on the situation. Of course, 8-10 singles isn't going to happen, but I could still see this album having 5-6. Yeah, every single release means more money spent. So a label has to have some sort of return on their investment. If you're a lesser known artist, 2-3 singles is the average (assuming your album gets release and is on time). That's why artists like Luke, Jason, Blake and Miranda get to have 4, 5, even 6 singles per album. The songs will most likely be hits at radio, regardless of heavy promotion and will have a much greater chance for large sales. Days where an artist can release 8-10 singles like Come On Over are over. Mercury had a phenomenon with Shania back then and that's when CD sales were at their peak. You'll notice how some of those 11 singles didn't do so hot at radio. I really don't think that philosophy will change much with the new CEO/Chairman. I still see a good shot at two more singles from Platinum.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 17, 2015 14:58:29 GMT -5
^You're right. Shania Twain's least successful Come On Over single was her tenth, Rock This Country! (#30 in Billboard, #? in MediaBase). The one big difference between her and Miranda Lambert is that Twain had crossover appeal leading to the massive sales of that CD whereas Lambert doesn't have that kind of appeal. I can not see Little Red Wagon being worked at other formats. Twain was a huge adult contemporary artist. I really can't think of a Lambert single that could work well in that format.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 17, 2015 15:01:24 GMT -5
^You're right. Shania Twain's least successful Come On Over single was her tenth, Rock This Country! (#30 in Billboard, #? in MediaBase). #22 on R&R.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 17, 2015 15:05:56 GMT -5
^You're right. Shania Twain's least successful Come On Over single was her tenth, Rock This Country! (#30 in Billboard, #? in MediaBase). #22 on R&R. Was that her lowest placement at R&R during the Come On Over era (1997-2000)? Thanks!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 17, 2015 15:08:11 GMT -5
Was that her lowest placement at R&R during the Come On Over era (1997-2000)? Thanks! Yes.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 17, 2015 15:09:36 GMT -5
Was that her lowest placement at R&R during the Come On Over era (1997-2000)? Thanks! Yes. I must say that wasn't bad for a TENTH single. Shania Twain released an eleventh called I'm Holding On To Love To Save My Life (#17 in Billboard).
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 17, 2015 15:15:02 GMT -5
I must say that wasn't bad for a TENTH single. Shania Twain released an eleventh called I'm Holding On To Love To Save My Life (#17 in Billboard). Singles didn't last nearly as long as they do now, in Miranda's peak years. "Rock This Country" lasted just 9 weeks and the album was only two years and 5 months old at that point (considering that wasn't a lengthy period of time since there was already 10 singles).
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 17, 2015 15:17:32 GMT -5
I must say that wasn't bad for a TENTH single. Shania Twain released an eleventh called I'm Holding On To Love To Save My Life (#17 in Billboard). Singles didn't last nearly as long as they do now, in Miranda's peak years. "Rock This Country" lasted just 9 weeks and the album was only two years and 5 months old at that point (considering that wasn't a lengthy period of time since there was already 10 singles). Honey, I'm Home lasted 22 weeks in the top 40 in Billboard, her longest stay in the Come On Over era and her last #1 country hit.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Mar 17, 2015 17:31:59 GMT -5
I wonder if Miranda is going to release a Greatest Hits package? I think it'd sell decently enough to make it worth her time.
She has enough hits to make one already, add maybe one or two more from 'Platinum' and it'd be a nice album. With two or three new tracks.
Here's a quick rundown of her singles so far, What do you guys think would make it on if she did a Greatest Hits?
"Me & Charlie Talking" - #27 "Bring Me Down" - #32 "Kerosene" - #15 "New Strings" - #25 "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend" - #50 "Famous In A Small Town" - #14 "Gunpowder & Lead" - #7 "More Like Her" - #17 "Dead Flowers" - #37 "White Liar" - #2 "The House That Built Me" - #1 "Only Prettier" - #12 "Heart Like Mine" - #1 "Baggage Claim" - #3 "Over You" - #1 "Fastest Girl In Town" - #3 "Mama's Broken Heart" - #2 "All Kinds Of Kinds" - #15 "Automatic" - #3 "Somethin' Bad (Feat. Carrie Underwood)" - #7 "Little Red Wagon" - #16
I think It'd look like so:
01. Kerosene 02. Famous In A Small Town 03. Gunpowder & Lead 04. White Liar 05. The House That Built Me 06. Heart Like Mine 07. Baggage Claim 08. Over You 09. Fastest Girl In Town 10. Mama's Broken Heart 11. All Kinds Of Kinds 12. Automatic 13. Somethin' Bad 14. (Next Single from Platinum) 15. (New Song) 16. (New Song) 17. (New or Live Song)
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 17, 2015 21:22:10 GMT -5
Idk about how much new material would go onto a GH album, since that tends to vary from artist-to-artist from none to as many as 3-4 new songs, but I see 14 singles that seem like guarantees to be on the package (probably 15 or 16 including additional singles from Platinum after LRW). The ones I can see being left off are the singles from Kerosene (minus the title track ofc.), "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend," "More Like Her," "Dead Flowers," and "All Kinds of Kinds." So, yeah, I think she could definitely get away with releasing a Greatest Hits soon.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Mar 17, 2015 21:33:34 GMT -5
There was an interesting article in last night's BCU talking about if how this is were a few years ago, Miranda's album would have 8-10 singles (like Shania'a) but in this market, with declining album and single sales, it doesn't seem worth it. Gary Overton was quoted as saying something like every single that gets released is another expense to the label. Of course, with today's new Gary will no longer be there, so it will be interesting to see what if any changes this has on the situation. Of course, 8-10 singles isn't going to happen, but I could still see this album having 5-6. I read that article too, but I didn't find it believable, at least not the part you quote. It's easy to say something in a counterfactual world since it can never be disproved. "8 to 10 singles? Definitely. While I'm at it, make that 20 singles, 10 to Earth radio and the other 10 to Saturn streaming lizard-discs." Maybe if I read the article more carefully... but I had no incentive to do that. What's discouraging to me is that women -- just because of their gender -- seem to be considered "polarizing," as far as I can tell. Then if their song has any element of controversy, it's double-polarizing, and we know how a risk-averse medium is going to react to that level of threat. I have a hard time accepting how this has all gone so badly, but I suppose if I live another 30 years I'll see some positive developments. Meanwhile, I do not enjoy this song and, in a world in which women were not treated as though they had some awful disease, I'd be happily tearing apart LRW. As it is, it feels like piling on, to comment unfavorably on a song that's getting marginalized already. Sabre -- your dad has it right. At the risk of quoting myself: I posted something way back in the early days of the Automatic thread, arguing that the lyrics could either be about trivia, and be entertainingly nostalgic, or they could raise serious political points, in which case there'd be some discussion. Trying to do both at once just made the song unpleasant for me, especially the line about divorce. Dismissing divorce in a throwaway sentence is annoying, whereas making a casual comment about rolling up car windows is just fine. There should be more dads-of-posters contributing to Pulse!
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Mar 17, 2015 21:49:58 GMT -5
I can't blame country radio for this particular chart run as the Callout scores indicate "Little Red Wagon" to be a pretty polarizing song. I think the problem may be that listeners are harder on polarizing stuff from female voices than male voices. According to the Mediabase Callout Survey linked in page 4 of this thread, the four songs with the highest "negativity rates" are all from females ("Little Red Wagon" at #1, "Somethin' Bad" at #2, "Something in the Water" at #3, and "Trouble" at #4). "Girl Crush" is at #6 and "Automatic" is at #8. I am especially surprised to see "Automatic" so high on this list as there's absolutely nothing polarizing about the song. So I think one of the problems here may be what country radio programmers have cited before: Females don't tend to test well, for whatever reason. As I mentioned before, female songs tend to be driven up the airplay charts by high passion -- "Something in the Water," for example, consistently scored the highest "favorite" percentage among current songs, regardless of callout survey, and its success was thus based on the idea that tune-in for that song would offset tune-out. "Testing well" depends somewhat on the definition, as I've noted before -- is it about the highest net positive? the highest percentage of favorable passion? the lowest negative? And, of course, target demos alter the definition as well. Among current songs on the Mediabase survey, "Little Red Wagon" is the #5 Favorite, and two of the songs ahead of it (Thomas Rhett's "Make Me Wanna" and Blake Shelton/Ashley Monroe's "Lonely Tonight") will be classified as recurrents soon. Interestingly, the #2 Favorite on this survey is Little Big Town's "Girl Crush." It's also instructive to look at the available breakdowns by demo. Males 25-34Pop Score: 43 Potential: 48 Positive: 35.1% Favorite: 13.5% Negative: 52.0% Net Positive: -16.9% Heavy Burn: 6.1% Familiarity: 88.1% Males 35-44Pop Score: 66 Potential: 71 Positive: 55.8% Favorite: 18.6% Negative: 32.6% Net Positive: 23.3% Heavy Burn: 3.5% Familiarity: 92.5% Females 35-44Pop Score: 65 Potential: 77 Positive: 59.1% Favorite: 25.8% Negative: 31.1% Net Positive: 28.0% Heavy Burn: 4.0% Familiarity: 84.9% Females 25-34Pop Score: 65 Potential: 74 Positive: 56.1% Favorite: 26.6% Negative: 35.5% Net Positive: 20.5% Heavy Burn: 6.4% Familiarity: 88.3% So based on the above, it's only one demographic that loathes "Little Red Wagon" and is dragging its callout scores down: the male 25-34 group. But as an object lesson in why we can't rely on any one survey, here's how callout in the exact same demos shakes out on Callout America: Males 25-34Positive (Like): 74.5% Favorite: 31.9% Negative (Dislike): 10.6% Strong Dislike: 0% Heavy Burn (Fatigue): 10.6% Males 35-44Positive (Like): 52.0% Favorite: 12.0% Negative (Dislike): 32.0% Strong Dislike: 4.0% Heavy Burn (Fatigue): 36% Females 35-44Positive (Like): 63% Favorite: 26.1% Negative (Dislike): 19.6% Strong Dislike: 4.3% Heavy Burn (Fatigue): 23.9% Females 25-34Positive (Like): 70.6% Favorite: 41.2% Negative (Dislike): 23.5% Strong Dislike: 2.0% Heavy Burn (Fatigue): 25.5% In the above, it looks like response to "Little Red Wagon" depends more on the age of the respondent, with the male 35-44 demographic showing the worst response to the song (by a healthy margin) while the male 25-34 demographic actually seems to have the most favorable response of the four demos (though a higher percentage of females 25-34 ranked "Little Red Wagon" as a favorite). "Little Red Wagon" isn't faring especially well compared to other current singles in this survey, either, admittedly, and its overall Favorite percentage isn't especially high on this survey. I'll be interested to see whether the video impacts callout over the next few weeks. In the meantime, there is a part of me wondering if "Little Red Wagon" is being allowed to flounder (or even sacrificed) for now as RCA Nashville tries to rescue Jake Owen's "What We Ain't Got." It certainly wouldn't be the first time a Sony Nashville label pushed less impactful songs from male artists at the expense of a higher-impact single from a female artist. ETA: The fact that both songs had down weeks last week puts a dent in this particular wondering.Oh, and count me in among those who find the second verse of "Automatic" to be overreaching and problematic.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Mar 18, 2015 1:50:52 GMT -5
Sabre -- your dad has it right. At the risk of quoting myself: I posted something way back in the early days of the Automatic thread, arguing that the lyrics could either be about trivia, and be entertainingly nostalgic, or they could raise serious political points, in which case there'd be some discussion. Trying to do both at once just made the song unpleasant for me, especially the line about divorce. Dismissing divorce in a throwaway sentence is annoying, whereas making a casual comment about rolling up car windows is just fine. There should be more dads-of-posters contributing to Pulse! And here I thought my take on Automatic was unique.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Mar 18, 2015 11:45:28 GMT -5
I think that Miranda could do a greatest hits next too, but I wonder if it might be more along the lines of what Tim McGraw did with his first one, rather than make it into its own separate era in her career. That is, release it and the final single from Platinum at the same time, so it serves as the 'greatest hits single', as well as the 'Platinum single' (like Tim did for "My Next Thirty Years". That way, it wouldn't slow her output down any, and casual fans would still have a greatest hits to pick up. Maybe pair it with a DVD of her music videos as a 'deluxe edition', to give her bigger fans an incentive to buy it.
Track listing:
1. Me And Charlie Talking 2. Kerosene 3. Famous In A Small Town 4. Gunpowder & Lead 5. White Liar 6. The House That Built Me 7. Only Prettier 8. Heart Like Mine 9. Baggage Claim 10. Over You 11. Fastest Girl In Town 12. Mama's Broken Heart 13. Automatic 14. Somethin' Bad 15. Little Red Wagon (if it hasn't already peaked....if it has, replace with another Platinum track) 16. Platinum single 17. Final Platinum single and GH single
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 19, 2015 17:32:31 GMT -5
Which means it'll march up the mongrel chart better than the airplay chart. Miranda Lambert maybe looking at a #1 on the former chart. Doubtful as Sam Hunt also just released his music video for "Take Your Time" and LRW doesn't come close to touching TYT's sales/streaming/airplay. It has started. A nice #17 to #5 move on the mongrel chart and it has the status of being the #1 country streaming song.
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Post by feelalright on Mar 19, 2015 17:56:43 GMT -5
Not my favorite song of hers.. not gonna give her hate for it, but I think I'm sticking to her older work for now. Also, feels difficult for me to fit this song into any genre... it's not pop.. alternative? don't really seem country!
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Post by myeverything on Mar 19, 2015 22:03:18 GMT -5
Kind of just doing this for fun at this point because, why not? "Me & Charlie Talking" "Kerosene" "New Strings" "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend" "Famous In A Small Town" "Gunpowder & Lead" "White Liar" "The House That Built Me" "Heart Like Mine" "Baggage Claim" "Over You" "Fastest Girl In Town" "Mama's Broken Heart" "Automatic" "Somethin' Bad (Feat. Carrie Underwood)" "Little Red Wagon"
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