Joel Whitburn's all-time Top Country Artists list

[Jonsolo]

And here were the top point gainers of 2009 (where pertinent, I'll put where they ranked in 2008 in parentheses):

1. (5) Carrie Underwood - 476
2. (11) Keith Urban - 390
3T. (6) Toby Keith - 388
3T. (4) Brad Paisley - 388
5. (3) Rascal Flatts - 366
6. Darius Rucker - 363
7. (2) Taylor Swift - 328
8. Lady Antebellum - 327
9. Zac Brown Band - 315
10. Jason Aldean - 307
11. (8) George Strait - 279
12. (14) Dierks Bentley - 273
13. Trace Adkins - 257
14. Billy Currington - 242
15T. (1) Kenny Chesney - 231
15T. Reba McEntire - 231
17. (13) Tim McGraw - 229
18. (7) Sugarland - 226
19. (12) Blake Shelton - 216
20. (9T) Alan Jackson - 212

Quite the quiet year for Kenny, indeed. And Taylor took it easy, country chart-wise, though she was everywhere else. And whereas we had five artists over 400 points in '08, only one made it this year, though there was a big tussle in the 360 to 390 area.

Also, 14 artists made it over 200 last year, and 21 did this year. Possible evidence of the new recurrent rules, that drop songs off quicker (three drops weeks, even if before 20 weeks), that make artists release the follow-ups even sooner? Thus, generating a noticeable amount of extra points, since more songs can fit into the year?

And up next, in a couple of weeks, will be the top artists of 2000-2009. I just need to wait to see if a handful of songs just peaked on the 12/26/09 chart, or if they are going to be headed higher up on the January charts. Those extra weeks are needed to determine if those songs should thus get included or removed from the artists' decade point total. No matter what, the top 20 positions are set in stone, but I have been tracking the list down to the top 50, just like Joel. So once I can get those numbers out, we can have even more fun speculating what's going to be held in store for the 10s!

[leilamaurizia]

Thanks, Jonsolo!

I was counting down from 99,999 bottles of beer on the wall already...

[onebuffalo]

As always, a masterpiece commentary! A must read for ALL country fans! Keep up the good work!

[carrieidol1]

Look at Carrie dominating :)

[Zazie]

Gary Allan wants all his decade points assigned to the 00's, after reading through Jon's massive effort. Jon is responsible if Gary does go recurrent next week.

I always enjoy reading all this stuff. Best of all is the speculation about what's going to happen over the next year. Jon, these Whitburn analyses are just great.

[Todd]

Excellent work, Jonsolo! After scanning your most recent update, I was curious as to how far some of the bottom dwellers have fallen over the years, as a result of being passed by newer hitmakers. In reading some of the earlier posts in this thread, I saw where you inserted the lower ranking older artists from the rankings in the 1988 book. I have the 1997 edition and noticed some differences, which I assume is from Joel making a change in his point system. What caught my eye was that your '88 book had Doug Kershaw ranked near the bottom, with 522 points, whereas my '97 book lists him (minus Rusty) at the very bottom (#400) with a point total of 507. It also indicates that he didn't rank in the previous edition (1993). How can an artist have 522 points through 1988, gain 31 points from his final charting song in 1989, but end up with 507 total points in the 1997 book? And how can an artist not chart at all between 1993 and 1997, but still move up in the rankings?

Others, that have slight discrepencies, along with their point totals and rankings in the 1997 Whitburn book are:

380. (545 pts) - Carl Belew
383. (542 pts) - Wilma Lee & Stoney Cooper
385. (533 pts) - Leon Ashley
387. (532 pts) - LaWanda Lindsey
392. (525 pts) - Sonny Curtis
393. (522 pts) - Bill Monroe
394. (521 pts) - Darrell McCall
395. (521 pts) - Ricky Nelson
396. (520 pts) - Lane Brody

All of the above artists were below the Top 400 in your 2001 book and none of them charted a song after 1986.

After typing this up, I went back and looked at some of the higher ranking artists and it appears that the point totals in your book and mine are different for almost every artist. I'm speaking only of those who haven't charted a song in decades.

Any insights as to how the formula might have changed?

[Zazie]

Todd, the formula hasn't changed. But take a look at post #93 in this thread for a partial account of how the formula has been applied differently -- you'll see a bunch of examples of songs that have been taken away or added to artists based on who does or doesn't get credited for singing what.

I'm sure there's a logical explanation, or maybe an illogical one, for the Kershaw changes but it's Dec 31 so my wife and I have to go out and celebrate instead of figuring out the answer. At least you can get an idea about how the point totals have shifted around.

[Jonsolo]

Dec 31, 2009 17:37:34 GMT -5 Todd said:

Excellent work, Jonsolo! After scanning your most recent update, I was curious as to how far some of the bottom dwellers have fallen over the years, as a result of being passed by newer hitmakers. In reading some of the earlier posts in this thread, I saw where you inserted the lower ranking older artists from the rankings in the 1988 book. I have the 1997 edition and noticed some differences, which I assume is from Joel making a change in his point system. What caught my eye was that your '88 book had Doug Kershaw ranked near the bottom, with 522 points, whereas my '97 book lists him (minus Rusty) at the very bottom (#400) with a point total of 507. It also indicates that he didn't rank in the previous edition (1993). How can an artist have 522 points through 1988, gain 31 points from his final charting song in 1989, but end up with 507 total points in the 1997 book? And how can an artist not chart at all between 1993 and 1997, but still move up in the rankings?

Others, that have slight discrepencies, along with their point totals and rankings in the 1997 Whitburn book are:

380. (545 pts) - Carl Belew
383. (542 pts) - Wilma Lee & Stoney Cooper
385. (533 pts) - Leon Ashley
387. (532 pts) - LaWanda Lindsey
392. (525 pts) - Sonny Curtis
393. (522 pts) - Bill Monroe
394. (521 pts) - Darrell McCall
395. (521 pts) - Ricky Nelson
396. (520 pts) - Lane Brody

All of the above artists were below the Top 400 in your 2001 book and none of them charted a song after 1986.

After typing this up, I went back and looked at some of the higher ranking artists and it appears that the point totals in your book and mine are different for almost every artist. I'm speaking only of those who haven't charted a song in decades.

Any insights as to how the formula might have changed?

There should be a detailed description of how the 1997 point totals were compiled in that book, probably on the page right before the top 400 list. It might have changed up a little bit from the last book I have, the 2005 edition, of which the point assignments I touched on on the first post of this thread. That was basically:

10 points for peaking between #91 and #100
15 for #81-90
20 for #71-80
25 for #61-70
and so on through
45 for #21-30
and then it shoots up
50 for #16-20
55 for #11-15
60 for #6-10
70 for #4 or 5
80 for #3, plus 3 points for any additional week spent at this peak position
90 for #2, plus 5 pts for additional weeks
100 for #1, plus 10 pts for additional weeks

And then total weeks on the chart for each song get added in.

There was also a point-breakdown for songs that made the "Hot Country Sales" chart, that were added in. Those points and songs were dropped from the 2008 edition.

I assume that the above point breakdown has to differ in some way from your 1997 breakdown, if nearly all the artist totals are different. I see that in my 1988 Whitburn book, the point totals are all much higher, as the breakdown assignments back then were:

100 pts for #1, 99 pts for #2, and working backward all the way to 1 pt for #100.

Plus, they added bonus points for each song that made the top 40: 50 extra points for a #1, 20 pts for #2-#5, 15 for #6 to 10, 10 for 11 to 20, 5 for 21 to 30, and 2 for 31 to 40.

Finally, they added in weeks charted for each song, plus multiple weeks at #1. So the point totals were much higher in that book. Eddy Arnold had well over 17K under that system, versus the current mid-12 thousand total. Maybe there was some point system halfway between that 1988 one, and the current version, in the 1997 book.

If not, then I fall back on Zazie's comments, that there have constantly been revisions to what songs are in an artist discographies, with duets and mass collaborations put in, taken out, or given partial credit at different times.

Other than those guesses, I would have to see a 1997 book to know for sure. I still plan on getting one of those (plus the 1993 book, and the 2008) from eBay, where I got my 1988 edition.

For the other part of your post, the point totals that I've listed for your Carl Belew to Lane Brody section, are what they now get from the 2005 point system, and not what they'd have if you went by the 1988 point system. Again, they'd be even higher. I'd have to see what the 1997 point system is, and/or if the discographies of each artist was, to tell what the differences are.

But just using one example, that maybe you can also look up/calculate on your own (or anyone else who has the '97 book), I'll take Lane Brody, where 2005's version has him with 539 and '97 apparently has him with 520. For '05, there's 12 songs listed for him, and their point accumulations for the dozen are:

14 + 36 + 32 + 25 + 74 + 37 + 122 + 37 + 20 + 59 + 40 + 43, which adding them up gives you 539. Maybe someone can do a song-by-song breakdown for Mr. Brody using 1997's data, and see where the 19 less points come from.

Finally, you did mention Doug Kershaw as your first example, that did draw my attention to a possible oversight of mine. I noticed that I initially added him to the list based on the 2001 edition, which listed the 18 artists that had fallen out of the rankings since 1997's book. I added up his points from that book, which included many Rusty & Doug songs, to get that 500+ point total. I just looked in the 2005 book, and saw that those Rusty songs are no longer listed in Doug's discography. So that makes me wonder if I need to reduce his point total as well, so that it only includes those "solo-Doug" songs. Maybe I'll see what Zazie, the other main "keeper of the Whit flame", has to say about the matter. Of course, we're just talking about if someone keeps the #451 position, not exactly a coveted slot like, say the all-time top 10...

Thanks for reading, and glad you enjoyed the updates. I'll probably wait until the 1/23/10 Billboard chart, after all the Christmas airplay effect is gone, to post what the "final" top point gainers of the decade were. There's about seven artists that I need to either a) keep adding points for, for their '09 peaking songs, or b), find out if their songs are going to reach a position higher than were they were as of the 12/26/09 chart, and thus get moved to the next decade. One example, George Strait's Twang, which had reached as high as #15 on that 12/26 chart. We'll see if he can reach at least #14 in the next couple of weeks, and thus ship its 70+ points to the '10-'19 decade.

[Zazie]

Wow. That was thorough, Jon. I had no idea the points system of 2001, which seems so straightforward, was a substantial revision of what had gone before. I haven't seen a Whitburn book before 2001 so I guess I figured that's when time started.

I would take the points away from the first Diggy Liggy Lo and earlier, when they were billed as a duet, thinking that's what Joel would want us to do. (Can we give those points to Sammy? He's the only Kershaw in a position to benefit from a boost.) I doubt that Joel has had his staff revise all the low scorers who aren't ever going to see the top 400, let alone top 300, again -- but if he did go in that direction, then I would confidently expect him to wipe out much of Doug's total.

[Jonsolo]

Jan 3, 2010 10:18:28 GMT -5 Zazie said:

Wow. That was thorough, Jon. I had no idea the points system of 2001, which seems so straightforward, was a substantial revision of what had gone before. I haven't seen a Whitburn book before 2001 so I guess I figured that's when time started.

I would take the points away from the first Diggy Liggy Lo and earlier, when they were billed as a duet, thinking that's what Joel would want us to do. (Can we give those points to Sammy? He's the only Kershaw in a position to benefit from a boost.) I doubt that Joel has had his staff revise all the low scorers who aren't ever going to see the top 400, let alone top 300, again -- but if he did go in that direction, then I would confidently expect him to wipe out much of Doug's total.

Done. I think there was about 300 points from the Rusty and Doug songs, and taking those away from Doug's total, will remove him from the list in its entirety. And that removed total is too low to even consider starting a separate Doug & Rusty entry as well.

[RobbyFlorida]

Jan 24, 2009 1:43:53 GMT -5 Jonsolo said:

Jan 24, 2009 0:05:37 GMT -5 sbp17 said:

But the question that everyone's dying to know....did Reba's top ten with B&D this week push her into the top 10 on Joel's countdown?

Nope, not yet. Since Reba no longer gets credit for her contributions to the Hank Jr. song Mind Your Own Business, she lost 52 points of her total that I had her down for at the end of 2008 (7761, on the third page of this thread), down to 7709, using Joel's total for her from the book plus the points she earned the rest of the year.

Right now, with this week's move into the top ten, Reba should have 7719 pts, to Ray Price's #10 total of 7773. Cowgirls will have to go #1 for her to have any shot in catching Ray with this song. Even then, it would take two weeks at #1, something that all of the recent top songs have been struggling to get. Chances are, it will have to wait for her next song, solo or duet.

WOW almost a year ago you said it would take a 2 or more week at #1 for Reba lol where she stand now with 3 weeks at #1 ?

[Zazie]

Reba didn't need a 2-week #1 to get into the top 10. That was just her way of doing it most quickly, with Cowgirls. She's already in the top 10 and has been for awhile -- she's ahead of both Ray Price and Willie Nelson at #9 thanks to her chart runs with Cowgirls and Strange, and her third week at #1 with CMG will pull her within 2 points of #8 Webb Pierce. She'll be passing Webb very soon.

She's almost exactly 300 points behind #7 Dolly Parton, who has the biggest point total of any woman on the list. It should take Reba 3 to 5 charting songs to pass Dolly, which I expect will be the last move she's able to make (since #6 Merle Haggard is another 800 points ahead of Dolly), though you never want to rule Reba out of any achievement.

[Todd]

Jonsolo,

Ok, I figured out where the differences in points are coming from. In your book he awards 55 pts for a #11-15 and 50 pts for #16-20. In my book it's 50 pts for anything #11-20.

I went back and added up the numbers for Lane Brody as well, and my totals match yours, with the exception of "Over You" (#15 from 1983) having 69 pts instead of 74 (see above). However, I only have 11 songs listed in my book for Lane, not 12. What song is listed first in your book, that earned 14 pts? The '97 book lists her first single as "He's Taken." Lane Brody is a girl by the way. ;)

[Jonsolo]

Jan 3, 2010 21:00:10 GMT -5 Todd said:

Jonsolo,

Ok, I figured out where the differences in points are coming from. In your book he awards 55 pts for a #11-15 and 50 pts for #16-20. In my book it's 50 pts for anything #11-20.

I went back and added up the numbers for Lane Brody as well, and my totals match yours, with the exception of "Over You" (#15 from 1983) having 69 pts instead of 74 (see above). However, I only have 11 songs listed in my book for Lane, not 12. What song is listed first in your book, that earned 14 pts? The '97 book lists her first single as "He's Taken." Lane Brody is a girl by the way. ;)

Just goes to show that sometimes us number-crunchers can't be bothered to actually read the short bios that Joel includes for every artist entry. And to read the song titles that would give away the gender, like He Burns Me Up and He's Taken. I guess I too closely associate the name with the bull-rider due to the movie 8 Seconds

The first entry in the 2005 book was a 1977 single called You're Gonna Make Love To Me (I guess I'd definitely want to know the gender of someone who sang that to me....). Lane was going under the name Lynn Nilles for that song, so it could be under a separate bio in your book.

"Lynn"? To be followed by a "Lane"? What is this, a reenactment of the old SNL sketch, It's Pat?

[Todd]

You were right. There was a seperate entry for Lynn Nilles, with no biographical information.

[Jonsolo]

Did Gary Allan finally make it to #20 this week, bettering his #21 high back on 12/26/09? That's the big question, and one that I hope finally gets answered, so that I can print the decade point totals. Steel Mag, Strait, Gary, and Thompson all seemed to be headed near the same audience total, for that #19 to #22 section. Gary needed to beat two of those other three, to get #20. Maybe George fell hard enough...

But it's funny that it's been seven weeks since the last chart week of 2009, and there's still one song that hasn't made up its mind if it was going to increase its peak at that time, or pack it in and drop.

If it wasn't going to affect the artist rankings on that decade list, I would have printed what I had a few weeks ago, and then just modified the totals as the weeks rolled by. But this determines whether Gary was #17 for the 00s (if Today is unable to get above #21), or #20 (if Today does reach #20). Sara Evans, Blake Shelton, and Sugarland (who are between those two possible placements for Gary) are breathlessly awaiting the results as well, to see where they ended up ranking...

[Jonsolo]

Okay, it took way too many 2010 charts to pass, but Gary Allan finally decided that his Today song was going to peak in 2010. So we finally know what songs have been classified as a "2000-2009" song (those that had reached their peak position by that 12/26/09 chart) and those that will be moved into the next decade (by since moving up to a higher position than what they had attained as of that 12/26/09 chart). So with those revelations settled, here is the quasi-final list of the top Whit-point producers of the past decade, 2000-2009.

I call it a "quasi" final list, as there is still the possibility that artists who had album cuts make the chart this past year, like Toby Keith and Brad Paisley from their most recent albums, might end up releasing those songs as singles in 2010 or beyond (like Brad's Water or Toby's Every Dog Has Its Day). But there's no use waiting around for those developments that might not come to pass, so I'll just post the list right now (and could always go back and edit it in the months ahead).

Basically, I took the decade list that was posted at the back of the most recent Joel Whitburn country book (2008 edition), and added in the points gathered since that book's cut-off date (8/30/08), while also not counting songs that hadn't peaked as of the 12/26/09 chart. Here we go:

Joel Whitburn's Top Country Artist points list for 2000-2009

1. Kenny Chesney - 4234
2. Toby Keith - 3797
3. Tim McGraw - 3449
4. Rascal Flatts - 3319
5. George Strait - 2997
6. Brad Paisley - 2900
7. Keith Urban - 2797
8. Alan Jackson - 2649
9. Brooks & Dunn - 2472
10. Montgomery Gentry - 2063

11. Martina McBride - 1999
12. Lonestar - 1850
13. Carrie Underwood - 1816
14. Trace Adkins - 1782
15. Faith Hill - 1675
16. Phil Vassar - 1576
17. Sara Evans - 1535
18. Blake Shelton - 1518
19. Sugarland - 1504
20. Gary Allan - 1497

21. Dierks Bentley - 1469
22. Dixie Chicks - 1375
23. Taylor Swift - 1342
24. Craig Morgan - 1334
25. Reba McEntire - 1328
26. Garth Brooks - 1305
27. Darryl Worley - 1299
28. Joe Nichols - 1253
29. Jo Dee Messina - 1247
30. Rodney Atkins - 1156

31. LeAnn Rimes - 1134
32. Lee Ann Womack - 1076
33. Gretchen Wilson - 1073
34. Pat Green - 1010
35. SheDaisy - 1007
36. Billy Currington - 983
37. Travis Tritt - 969
38. Tracy Lawrence - 967
39. Chris Cagle - 948
40. Steve Holy - 938

41. Clay Walker - 935
42. Terri Clark - 898
43. Mark Wills - 891
44. Tracy Byrd - 882
45. Diamond Rio - 878
46. Jason Aldean - 860
47. Jamie O'Neal - 843
48. Big & Rich - 842
49. Trisha Yearwood - 840
50. Shania Twain - 838

51. Josh Turner - 834
52. Andy Griggs - 830

[Jonsolo]

Comments on the above decade list, the top 10:

Both Toby Keith and Tim McGraw sprinted out to a neck-and-neck lead at the halfway point of the decade, but Kenny Chesney methodically tracked them both down to win the #1 slot by a pretty convincing margin. It also helped both Toby and Timmy ran into some troubles in the second half of the decade with getting their songs to #1 as easily as they did in the first half.

The 4000+ points for Kenny was impressive, given that Billboard shrank their chart down from 75 positions to 60 back in 2001, depriving all artists of chances to chart a lot more bottom-of-the-barrel album tracks in that 61 to 75 range, a practice that lended a helping hand for Garth Brooks and George Strait to get their 4000+ point totals back in the 90s. Perhaps the shrinking of the chart was offset a bit by the switch in 2005 from ranking the chart by spins to audience. Didn't take too many big market station spins to get an unpromoted song up on the chart. And true enough, Kenny seemed to be the most adept at getting those charted album cuts, with eight, to go along with eight Christmas songs. That provided most of the point advantage on Toby, who had three album cuts and five Christmas songs.

It should be interesting to see how the top trio fares in the next decade, as they're all not too far away from each other on the complete Whit-pt list: Timmy with 6167 at #23, Toby with 5604 at #33, and Kenny with 5573 at #34. All will be into their 50s by the time the next decade is over, generally the age when most country music legends stop getting radio airplay on a national level. That would bode well for Kenny, as the youngest, and most likely to come out on top when all three have hung it up. Toby's already 48 years old, so you would think he'll finish 3rd among the group. I'll do some wild predictions of what the next decade's point totals might be for them plus all the other heavy hitters later on.

George Strait had himself another strong decade, which is what you'd expect for the singer that was named Artist of the Decade by the ACMs. He hung tough with Rascal Flatts for eight of the ten years of the decade, but six singles in those last two years, plus three top 40 Christmas songs, allowed them to surge ahead. They easily posted the best "non-solo" artist total, 800 pts over Brooks & Dunn and weren't too far from doubling up the nearest group, Lonestar (who was pretty much inactive the final three years). Of course, with Zac Brown and Lady Ant surging in popularity, I doubt they'll grab that honor for the 2010s. They might be happy with a top five ranking among duos/groups.

Brad Paisley did mount a charge for George, but his releasing American Saturday Night as a single canceled out its 2009 points when it charted as an album cut, and George was able to chart with El Rey to give him some insurance. So George was able to get a #5 00s decade finish to go with his #2 in the 90s, and his #12 in the 80s (he didn't debut until May '81, or he'd have been a lot higher).

And taking a moment to look at George's career total, 10486 when compared to all-time #2 George Jones and his 11922, and #1 Eddy Arnold and his 12667. George is precisely 1436 behind Jones, and 2181 behind Eddy Arnold. Looking at the entire Whitlist, George needs to essentially starting now, do everything that Holly Dunn accomplished in her career to catch Jones, and duplicate the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band's career to catch Arnold.

Taking it a step further and looking at the decade totals that I just printed, assume that the point totals stay about the same for the 2010s, with respect to what is needed to rank at a certain position on the list. The 1436 that Strait needs to catch Jones would have fit in between the totals that Dierks and the Dixie Chicks scored during the 00s. So if George is able to end up ranking around #20 or #21 on the 2010s decade points list, that should mean that he's earned enough points in the next decade to reach #2. And the 2181 pts that is needed to reach Eddy Arnold, would haved ranked just ahead of #10 Montgomery Gentry's total from the 00s. So if George can be a top ten artist in the 2010s, he should be able to catch Eddy Arnold. Yeah, that might be a stretch, as he's about to turn 60 in a couple of years. George should be ecstatic if he can end up with a 12K career point total.

For Brad, expect him to contend for a top 3 position in the 2010s...

The slight hiccups in the final third of the decade for Keith Urban and Alan Jackson kept them from reaching 3000 decade points. Keith Urban went #1-less in 2006 and 2007, which sunk his hopes, and AJ went six singles without a #1 to doom him. Still, they ended up with solid decade totals, and should be able to make a few more strides up the career list during the 2010s. AJ is less than a thousand from the all-time top 10, which definitely looks doable.

Brooks & Dunn notched another top ten finish, to go with their #8 from the 90s, to wrap up a nice and tidy two-decade career. They also far out-distanced the act, Montgomery Gentry, that at the beginning of the decade appeared to be set to give them some more competition. Again, I'm hoping that they don't go completely 0-fer the 10s (well, beyond that Mac Powell duet currently on the chart).

Finally, Montgomery Gentry ended up with a total that suited their ability to generate a consistent 200 points each year. I'm not sure if they'll make it past the halfway point of the next decade still being productive, but the top 100 shouldn't be a problem as a career destination.

[Jonsolo]

Comments on the rest of the list:

I always knew Martina McBride and Prince had a lot in common, and here we have the proof...

Seriously, she was just able to hold off the rampaging Carrie, to finish as the top ranking female artist of the 2000s. This despite only scoring one #1 during the decade, way back in 2002, and only earning one top 10 in her last nine singles. If Carrie had come along six months earlier than when she did, Martina wouldn't have been able to hold her off.

Speaking of Carrie, if she had been around for the entire decade, and had kept the same pace she's set since late 2005, she'd have just edged past Kenny's point total for #1. Well, she'll get her chance at the top spot in the 2010s.

Nice close contest in the #s 16 to 21 section, where Sugarland was unable to take full advantage of their Christmas album, only charting one song from it. Phil Vassar's string of flops at least enabled him to keep releasing them one-after-another, to fit them in by the end of the year and thus rise to the top of this mini-group. Blake finally found some consistency, after starting his career in boom-or-bust style (either hitting #1 or missing the top 10 entirely with his first 8 singles). Dierks Bentley and Sugarland should emerge from that group of six to have the best 2010s.

Looking at the Dixie Chicks' total, that came from just over three years of activity, or a third of the decade. Projecting that out (just like Carrie) to if they had hung around all decade (i.e., if the stage microphones would have failed one night in London in March '03...), they could have made a charge at 4000 points.

Taylor Swift also finished the decade on a hot pace, and should see a bonanza of success in her 20s, which will coincide with the 2010s. I foresee her, Brad, and Carrie as being the major contenders for the top 3 positions during the next decade. Assuming, of course, she doesn't lose her focus and want to switch over to acting or pop music full-time.

A respectable showing for Reba McEntire, who along with George, was the other big holdover from the 80s (#11 during that decade) and 90s (#5).

The bottom of this list contains a few youngsters, who might be able to move up 25 to 30 positions in their rankings in the next decade. Billy Currington and Jason Aldean, in particular, should be the ones that see a quantum leap up the next decade list.

And I included the last two artists since they were so close, and Josh Turner just missed out at cracking the list.

[Jonsolo]

And now, here are my wild guesses as to how the 2010s Whitburn points list might look, at the end of 2019. I do think the top ten artists of the next decade, have all already shown up on the chart by now, or will by mid-2010, as that was the case with the 2000s. Rascal Flatts showed up in early 2000, and Urban, Paisley, and Mont Gentry had appeared the year before (the other six were well established as the 90s came to a close). There will without a doubt be a few acts that will crack the decade top 20 that we haven't heard of yet (as Carrie and Sugarland were nowhere to be found back in 2000). I suppose I should hold off on trying to predict what the names of those artists are...

I did assume that the Billboard chart will remain relatively intact, in its current form (60 positions), for the whole decade, and thus the point totals of whoever the top artists end up being, closely mirror what the 2000s gave us.

Possible point totals for artists for 2010-2019:

1. Carrie Underwood - 3700
2. Brad Paisley - 3500
3. Taylor Swift - 3400
4. Sugarland - 2900
5. Dierks Bentley - 2750
6. Jason Aldean - 2650
7. Kenny Chesney - 2450
8. Billy Currington - 2400
9. Lady Antebellum - 2350
10. Darius Rucker - 2100

and then other various artists...

Zac Brown Band - 2050
Keith Urban - 2000
Rodney Atkins - 1900
Toby Keith - 1700
Rascal Flatts - 1650
Blake Shelton - 1600
George Strait - 1600
Alan Jackson - 1550
Tim McGraw - 1300

I am a bit apprehensive about putting too much faith into the youngsters Lady Ant, Rucker, and Zac Brown, as most of their good fortune has just come from one album/1.5 years, and I'd like to see another album/year's worth of consistency before I'm that comfortable with assigning them such point totals. But I was needing a top 10, and choosing from them to fill in the blanks is as good of a strategy as any.

I could see a case being made for any of the top three being chosen to be the top point producer of the 2010s, as they all have a lot of upside. The chief among them, being youth. At the end of 2019, Carrie will be 36, Brad 47, and Taylor 30. For Taylor, there have been periods of inactivity for past teen stars, as they grew up into their 20s, like Tanya Tucker and Leann Rimes. She might be the least "sure thing" of the trio, to stick with it all ten years and be a steady producer. Of course, if she's able to cram in tons of points early on in the decade, that could make up for any sabbaticals....

Now, taking these point guesses, and applying them to what point totals each artist has as of the end of 2009, gives us some rather eye-opening totals for the end of 2019, and the new all-time rankings that would be as a result:

Carrie - 5500 / top 40 all-time
Brad - 6700 / top 25
Taylor - 4700 / top 50 (as a 30-year-old!!!)
Sugarland - 4400 / top 60
Dierks Bentley - 4300 / top 60

Jason Aldean - 3600 / top 75
Kenny Chesney - 8000 / top 12
Billy Currington - 3450 / top 85
Lady Antebellum - 2900 / top 110
Darius Rucker - 2650 / top 125

Zac Brown Band - 2500 / top 140
Keith Urban - 4850 / top 50
Rodney Atkins - 3050 / top 100
Toby Keith - 7300 / top 20
Rascal Flatts - 4975 / top 50

Blake Shelton - 3200 / top 95
George Strait - 12100 / #2 (!)
Alan Jackson - 8450 / #7
Tim McGraw - 7500 / top 15

Of course, a few of these guys will drift away not make it to the end of the decade, and fall short of those possible destinations. I'd probably guess that one of the LadyAnt/Rucker/Zac trio will fail to catch on long enough to make it to those top 140 targets. Also, Blake and Rodney will need to show sustained consistency (especially Rodney), if they actually have top 100 aspirations. I could see both carving out the same chart stats that others in that region, like John Michael Montgomery, Mark Chesnutt, and Joe Diffie managed.

Anyway, I think that's all I can squeeze out of the topic, in regards to the Whitburn list, until we reach the halfway point of 2010, i.e., when the 6/26/10 chart has been released. So it'll be until then when I next come back here and do a mid-year update, and see how everyone's progress is looking. But before I forget:

[Jonsolo]

Northerncountry put together a ranking of top artists of the past decade, based on a different points system, that he explained and printed here. Just for curiosity's sake, I went and saw how his rankings ended up comparing with the rankings of Whitburn. I'll re-print the decade list that I put up above, and include in parentheses where the artist was on Northerncountry's list:


1. Kenny Chesney (#1 on nc's list)
2. Toby Keith (2)
3. Tim McGraw (3)
4. Rascal Flatts (4)
5. George Strait (6)
6. Brad Paisley (5)
7. Keith Urban (7)
8. Alan Jackson (8)
9. Brooks & Dunn (9)
10. Montgomery Gentry (10)
11. Martina McBride (13)
12. Lonestar (11)
13. Carrie Underwood (20)
14. Trace Adkins (12)
15. Faith Hill (19)
16. Phil Vassar (17)
17. Sara Evans (18)
18. Blake Shelton (15)
19. Sugarland (21)
20. Gary Allan (14)
21. Dierks Bentley (16)
22. Dixie Chicks (32)
23. Taylor Swift (29)
24. Craig Morgan (23)
25. Reba McEntire (25)
26. Garth Brooks (33)
27. Darryl Worley (26)
28. Joe Nichols (22)
29. Jo Dee Messina (24)
30. Rodney Atkins (28)
31. LeAnn Rimes (37)
32. Lee Ann Womack (30)
33. Gretchen Wilson (43)
34. Pat Green (40)
35. SheDaisy (38)
36. Billy Currington (27)
37. Clay Walker (47)
38. Travis Tritt (36)
39. Tracy Lawrence (56)
40. Chris Cagle (35)
41. Steve Holy (44)
42. Terri Clark (42)
43. Mark Wills (48)
44. Tracy Byrd (52)
45. Diamond Rio (39)
46. Jason Aldean (31)
47. Jamie O'Neal (45)
48. Big & Rich (54)
49. Trisha Yearwood (53)
50. Shania Twain (50)
51. Josh Turner (34)
52. Andy Griggs (46)

And there you go. I guess since northerncountry went all the way to 100 on his list, I could have expanded my list a little further. But once you get down to Shania Twain, no other artists matter...!

[onebuffalo]

Are you saying that Kenny Chesney would be the top artist for the 2000-2009 time period. If so, I will post that on my #1 Artists thread!

[Jonsolo]

With Brad Paisley's Water re-entering this week's Billboard chart, now as an official single release, it now gets named a 2010-2019 song. It had previously charted for 8 weeks last fall as an album cut, and thus got included into the 2000-2009 Whitburn point totals that I printed in the list up above. With it now a 2010s song, I subtracted out those 38 points from Brad's 2000s total, to change him from 2938 to 2900.

In addition, Toby Keith's Every Dog Has Its Day re-entered the chart a few weeks ago, now as a single, to thus get classified as a 2010s song. That was after it charted for 2 weeks last fall as an album cut. So again, I subtracted out 32 points from Toby's 2000s total, from 3829 to 3797, and modified both totals in the above list.

Both of those changes didn't affect any rankings. Kenny just claimed his decade crown by an even larger margin, and Brad dropped back to a total almost exactly halfway between #5 George and #7 Urban. I'm hoping that these point totals are exactly what Joel Whitburn shows at the back of his next Top Country Singles book, but even if he does some more editing of what songs he ends up counting, I'm fairly confident that the top 15 or 16 artists on that list of mine, should mirror the order of what Joel comes up with.

So that should be it, in as far as us seeing any songs that previously charted in the last decade, coming back onto the chart and peaking higher in 2010, and thus having to modify any of the point totals for those top artists. The only ones that come readily to mind, is Toby Keith's If I Had One, which charted in Oct 2009, and George Strait's El Rey from last summer. George's is surely not coming back, and Toby has had a history of only releasing three singles per album, making me doubt that he'll go back for Had One for a 4th single.

So I should be done on updating this thread until the middle of the year, after the 6/26/10 chart gets released. Hey, that's only 13 weeks away!

[Zazie]

Feb 2, 2010 12:26:37 GMT -5 Jonsolo said:

And now, here are my wild guesses as to how the 2010s Whitburn points list might look, at the end of 2019. I do think the top ten artists of the next decade, have all already shown up on the chart by now, or will by mid-2010, as that was the case with the 2000s. Rascal Flatts showed up in early 2000, and Urban, Paisley, and Mont Gentry had appeared the year before (the other six were well established as the 90s came to a close). There will without a doubt be a few acts that will crack the decade top 20 that we haven't heard of yet (as Carrie and Sugarland were nowhere to be found back in 2000). I suppose I should hold off on trying to predict what the names of those artists are...

I did assume that the Billboard chart will remain relatively intact, in its current form (60 positions), for the whole decade, and thus the point totals of whoever the top artists end up being, closely mirror what the 2000s gave us.

Possible point totals for artists for 2010-2019:

1. Carrie Underwood - 3700
2. Brad Paisley - 3500
3. Taylor Swift - 3400
4. Sugarland - 2900
5. Dierks Bentley - 2750
6. Jason Aldean - 2650
7. Kenny Chesney - 2450
8. Billy Currington - 2400
9. Lady Antebellum - 2350
10. Darius Rucker - 2100

and then other various artists...

Zac Brown Band - 2050
Keith Urban - 2000
Rodney Atkins - 1900
Toby Keith - 1700
Rascal Flatts - 1650
Blake Shelton - 1600
George Strait - 1600
Alan Jackson - 1550
Tim McGraw - 1300

I am a bit apprehensive about putting too much faith into the youngsters Lady Ant, Rucker, and Zac Brown, as most of their good fortune has just come from one album/1.5 years, and I'd like to see another album/year's worth of consistency before I'm that comfortable with assigning them such point totals. But I was needing a top 10, and choosing from them to fill in the blanks is as good of a strategy as any.

I could see a case being made for any of the top three being chosen to be the top point producer of the 2010s, as they all have a lot of upside. The chief among them, being youth. At the end of 2019, Carrie will be 36, Brad 47, and Taylor 30. For Taylor, there have been periods of inactivity for past teen stars, as they grew up into their 20s, like Tanya Tucker and Leann Rimes. She might be the least "sure thing" of the trio, to stick with it all ten years and be a steady producer. Of course, if she's able to cram in tons of points early on in the decade, that could make up for any sabbaticals....

Now, taking these point guesses, and applying them to what point totals each artist has as of the end of 2009, gives us some rather eye-opening totals for the end of 2019, and the new all-time rankings that would be as a result:

Carrie - 5500 / top 40 all-time
Brad - 6700 / top 25
Taylor - 4700 / top 50 (as a 30-year-old!!!)
Sugarland - 4400 / top 60
Dierks Bentley - 4300 / top 60

Jason Aldean - 3600 / top 75
Kenny Chesney - 8000 / top 12
Billy Currington - 3450 / top 85
Lady Antebellum - 2900 / top 110
Darius Rucker - 2650 / top 125

Zac Brown Band - 2500 / top 140
Keith Urban - 4850 / top 50
Rodney Atkins - 3050 / top 100
Toby Keith - 7300 / top 20
Rascal Flatts - 4975 / top 50

Blake Shelton - 3200 / top 95
George Strait - 12100 / #2 (!)
Alan Jackson - 8450 / #7
Tim McGraw - 7500 / top 15

Of course, a few of these guys will drift away not make it to the end of the decade, and fall short of those possible destinations. I'd probably guess that one of the LadyAnt/Rucker/Zac trio will fail to catch on long enough to make it to those top 140 targets. Also, Blake and Rodney will need to show sustained consistency (especially Rodney), if they actually have top 100 aspirations. I could see both carving out the same chart stats that others in that region, like John Michael Montgomery, Mark Chesnutt, and Joe Diffie managed.

Anyway, I think that's all I can squeeze out of the topic, in regards to the Whitburn list, until we reach the halfway point of 2010, i.e., when the 6/26/10 chart has been released. So it'll be until then when I next come back here and do a mid-year update, and see how everyone's progress is looking.

Now that we're a quarter of the way through 2010, and a smallish 2.5% of the way through the decade, I think it's time to salute Reba as the leader in points for the 2010's. She might still be there at the end of June, with 5% of the decade complete. Pretty impressive. She won't hold it for long but why not enjoy it while she has it?

I wanted to speculate about the top 10 for the upcoming decade, and respond to Jon's efforts along those lines. No, I won't put Reba in the new decade's prospective top 10.

1. Brad Paisley -- I know Jon has Carrie on top and there's a good reason to think that, but she might take some time off for family reasons and Brad (life is unfair) can do that while still touring and recording.

2. Carrie Underwood -- she'll have to experience a few songs that don't go to #1 or 2 along the way, but she should remain wildly successful.

3. Lady Antebellum -- maybe it was unfair of me to wait a couple of months -- but they look like the RF of the new decade, embraced by both pop and country and capable of cashing in in a big way on the country charts. Too bad Need You Now doesn't count for the 2010's.

4. Jason Aldean -- from his first single, something about him reminded me of Tim McGraw -- he has the drive and ambition to go far, and I don't think he'll be stopped. And now that he's had a run of #1's, it looks like I'm just jumping on the bandwagon, but really I expected this to happen for him.

5. Kenny Chesney -- he's still got it, but he probably won't have as much of it by decade's end. Still, he looks like a great candidate for back-to-back top 10's in the decade rankings. Looks like a top 10 artist of all time on the Whitburn list.

6. Sugarland -- or else Jennifer Nettles' total + Sugarland's total, which isn't the way Whitburn would count it -- but will they stay together? Anyway, slow start for them but I don't doubt they'll come out of this points slump doing just fine

7. Taylor Swift -- I'd rank her higher, but the artists who have big success in their teens are prone to hit a slump in their 20's. Might not happen to Taylor, and I've still got her in the top 10, but I'm hedging my bets a little.

8. Keith Urban -- he might lose interest in country music, and take his talents off in a different direction. But if he's going to release 4 country albums in the 2010-2019 period, he should finish in the top 10.

9. Dierks Bentley -- not sure about this one, but he seems to have the knack for scoring top 5 hits with regularity

10. Darius Rucker -- for some reason, based on only one album, I'm giving him credit for the ability to sustain a presence on the charts.

Zac Brown could fit, Blake Shelton could, Tim McGraw could do really well once he's on his own label, Miranda Lambert could be on the verge of becoming a big star. There are plenty of other candidates, and somebody like Luke Bryan who has barely charted at all could break through. An artist who hasn't charted yet could make the top 10. Toby could have 10 more years of big hits in him (and his label can't drop him!), and it never feels right to rule out George Strait. But I'll stick with my top 10, for lack of a crystal ball.

Dixie Chicks, where are you?

Modified to say that I forgot to mention Josh Turner. He's someone I wish could make the top 10, and with his big hit of 2010 maybe he can. I'm not willing to rank him that high, but I think he can make the top 15 or so, and maybe his very different style of song arrangement will catch on a bit more. I'll be hoping he can do really well.

[Jonsolo]

Mar 16, 2010 13:34:33 GMT -5 Zazie said:

Now that we're a quarter of the way through 2010, and a smallish 2.5% of the way through the decade, I think it's time to salute Reba as the leader in points for the 2010's. She might still be there at the end of June, with 5% of the decade complete. Pretty impressive. She won't hold it for long but why not enjoy it while she has it?

I wanted to speculate about the top 10 for the upcoming decade, and respond to Jon's efforts along those lines. No, I won't put Reba in the new decade's prospective top 10.

1. Brad Paisley -- I know Jon has Carrie on top and there's a good reason to think that, but she might take some time off for family reasons and Brad (life is unfair) can do that while still touring and recording.

2. Carrie Underwood -- she'll have to experience a few songs that don't go to #1 or 2 along the way, but she should remain wildly successful.

3. Lady Antebellum -- maybe it was unfair of me to wait a couple of months -- but they look like the RF of the new decade, embraced by both pop and country and capable of cashing in in a big way on the country charts. Too bad Need You Now doesn't count for the 2010's.

4. Jason Aldean -- from his first single, something about him reminded me of Tim McGraw -- he has the drive and ambition to go far, and I don't think he'll be stopped. And now that he's had a run of #1's, it looks like I'm just jumping on the bandwagon, but really I expected this to happen for him.

5. Kenny Chesney -- he's still got it, but he probably won't have as much of it by decade's end. Still, he looks like a great candidate for back-to-back top 10's in the decade rankings. Looks like a top 10 artist of all time on the Whitburn list.

6. Sugarland -- or else Jennifer Nettles' total + Sugarland's total, which isn't the way Whitburn would count it -- but will they stay together? Anyway, slow start for them but I don't doubt they'll come out of this points slump doing just fine

7. Taylor Swift -- I'd rank her higher, but the artists who have big success in their teens are prone to hit a slump in their 20's. Might not happen to Taylor, and I've still got her in the top 10, but I'm hedging my bets a little.

8. Keith Urban -- he might lose interest in country music, and take his talents off in a different direction. But if he's going to release 4 country albums in the 2010-2019 period, he should finish in the top 10.

9. Dierks Bentley -- not sure about this one, but he seems to have the knack for scoring top 5 hits with regularity

10. Darius Rucker -- for some reason, based on only one album, I'm giving him credit for the ability to sustain a presence on the charts.

Zac Brown could fit, Blake Shelton could, Tim McGraw could do really well once he's on his own label, Miranda Lambert could be on the verge of becoming a big star. There are plenty of other candidates, and somebody like Luke Bryan who has barely charted at all could break through. An artist who hasn't charted yet could make the top 10. Toby could have 10 more years of big hits in him (and his label can't drop him!), and it never feels right to rule out George Strait. But I'll stick with my top 10, for lack of a crystal ball.

Dixie Chicks, where are you?

Modified to say that I forgot to mention Josh Turner. He's someone I wish could make the top 10, and with his big hit of 2010 maybe he can. I'm not willing to rank him that high, but I think he can make the top 15 or so, and maybe his very different style of song arrangement will catch on a bit more. I'll be hoping he can do really well.

Looks like we're in pretty close agreement, with us only fundamentally differing by me having faith in Billy Currington becoming a top 10 artist, and you putting Urban back into the top 10, as opposed to me having him just outside of it. But no point total guesses? Come on! Where's the fun with just a straightforward list?! I'm confident that this messageboard (or myself) will have gone the way of the dinosaur by the time 2019 gets here, so my point guesses won't be held against me.....!

And if I had known that Lady Ant's new album was going to sell this well back when I came up with my top 10 list, I definitely would have boosted them higher than my #9 slot, probably into the top 5.

And Zazie's right about Reba taking the (severely) early lead on the 2010s points list. With the good fortune of having her CMG peak in January, all of its points got applied to the new decade, and thus she's the only one over 200 already, with 208. Jason's not too far behind with 182, and Timmy's back at 179. Jason's Crazy Town will have to outdo/outpeak Reba's Keep On by 30 points, to take the lead (like #1 for Jason, vs #5 peak for Reba). At any rate, Reba should still have the lead at the mid-year point.

[Zazie]

If Josh Turner knew what was at stake here -- having the lead in the Whitburn decade totals after 5% of the decade's charts are in the books -- he would be flogging his new single really hard. 3 months to go and he's wasting time!

[someguy]

This seems like an almost impossible task, but I'll try my best to predict the top 10 of the decade too.

1. Jason Aldean - going out on a limb here, but I think that the bulk of his "high points" will come in this decade, whereas Brad (and maybe even Carrie) have already seen their absolute highest career peaks.

2. Brad Paisley - he could very well be #1, but I'll guess that he has a decade similar to, though slightly better than, Alan Jackson's 2000-2009.

3. Carrie Underwood - for reasons that Zazie said, family commitments might prevent her from being the #1 artist of the decade, though she is more than capable of pulling it off.

4. Sugarland/Jennifer Nettles - though, like Zazie said, point totals won't be combined, I can see Jennifer (either with Kristian or on her own) having another huge decade.

5. Lady Antebellum - as long as they don't suffer a crossover backlash, they should have a great decade.

6. Kenny Chesney - the hits will slow down, but I think he'll have another great decade (much like Tim's 2000-2009).

7. Taylor Swift - I could see her not even making the top 10, (sort of like how LeAnn Rimes fell off this past decade), but I'm betting she will end up continuing her success, at least through the first half of the decade.

8. Zac Brown Band - going against the grain, but I see the ZBB having a more consistent decade than Darius Rucker.

9. Keith Urban - out of the current "superstars", I see Keith as having a better shot of hanging on for awhile longer than Toby Keith or Tim McGraw.

10. Dierks Bentley - I went with him over Blake Shelton and Josh Turner, but I'm not so convinced about this pick.

Tim, Toby, maybe George Strait, maybe (but doubtfully) Reba, maybe Alan could all finish in the top 20-top 25.

[Jonsolo]

There is a lot to like about Jason's prospects in the next decade, including him at the prime age for steady output (33, and will only be 42 at the end of 2019). But there were a couple of factors that kept me from putting him into the top 5.

Assuming that point totals continue to be consistent across the decades, for the same rankings, it will probably require around 3000 points to make it into the top 5. I "only" gave Jason a guess of 2650 pts in the post that Zazie quoted above. If you're going to get into the 3000 territory, history suggests that you need to be able to get quite a few charting album cuts to make it that high. In addition, you need to release a Christmas album along the way, and get some easy charting songs that way as well. Kenny got 8 album cuts in the 2000s, and 7 Christmas songs. Toby got 2 cuts and 5 X-mas songs. Timmy with 6 cuts, R Flatts with 9 cuts/3 X-mas, and George with 7 cuts/5 X-mas.

Now I do assume Jason will be releasing a Christmas album at some point, which could give him some charting candidates. But I wonder if the country chart will be as conducive to Christmas songs as it's been in the past. We all saw Sugarland's Christmas album this past December only produce one charting song. And only about half as many Christmas songs charted this past year, as compared to 2008. Granted, that could hamper every artist in their Christmas efforts, and become "a wash".

But there also doesn't appear to be any sign of Jason being able to chart album cuts, around when his albums come out, or later on when the album is still chugging along with sales, and there's "lulls" between the peaks of his singles. Still time for him to develop that aspect of his chart performance, but I think we'll need to see some action when his next album comes out.

Especially since the other main contenders for the top spots in the 2010s (Brad, Carrie, Taylor, Sugarland, Lady A) proving that they can chart album cuts, Jason could be facing a mild handicap, in the points competition.

Secondly, perhaps unfairly, I think there will be a glass ceiling in Jason's popularity based solely on looks. Now, it's not like he's a gargoyle, or anything, and it's obvious that you have to be somewhat easy on the eyes to have as much success as he's had. But I think, once again, in comparision to the other top contenders, he doesn't quite have the "pretty boy" qualities that, say, Brad, Blake, Billy, Keith, Tim, Kenny (as long as he keeps his hat on), and Dierks have going for them. Jason's usually struck me as a little more "scruffy-looking", then the spit-polished and admittedly somewhat "packaged" looks of those other artists. But "scruffy-looking" did work for Han Solo....

I do suppose that comparisons with looks can be drawn between Jason and Toby Keith (who did end up at the #2 position for the 00s), and the similar personas that they tend to project. A little more "rough and tumble", in-your-face type personality (that at times can be interpreted as "obnoxious"). That was the similarity that I was seeing from the start of Jason's career, while Zazie was being reminded of Timmy. So there is certainly a market for that type of career, and as I've shown, I think Jason will be a solid top 10 artist in the 2010s. But I do see a sort of "glass ceiling" for his chart production. I think the next album will go a long way to seeing if he'll be able to shatter that ceiling.

[Jonsolo]

We now have the 6/26/10 Billboard chart in our hot little hands, and thus we are halfway through the calendar year. So it's time once again to do a mid-year checkup, of the Top Country Artists points list that Joel Whitburn publishes at the back of all of his books.

As always, we'll group my comments together that refer to the separate sections of 100 (which you can see on the update from last December).

Notes for #1 to #100:

- George Strait (#3, 10597) doesn't get the #1s quite as easily as he used to (which is understandable after 29 years), but he's still churning out the hits and points at a reasonable rate. 111 pts during the first half should give him another solid year, and he'll soon be within 1300 pts of George Jones' #2 total. In fact, he'll reach the halfway point between #4 Johnny Cash and #2 Jones (10686 pts) when his next single reaches the top 5, presumably by late October. Now if he can just nail down that pesky 45th #1...

- Reba McEntire (#8, 8067) enjoyed the biggest chart hit of her career in January, and after a 127-point gain aided by another top 10 hit, she looks like a sure bet that she'll get the remaining 211 points she needs to catch Dolly Parton for #7 all-time. That would also make her the highest ranking female. She might make it there by this time next year, if she can find two more big hits between now and then.

- Alan Jackson (#16, 6991) has downshifted mightily from the blockbuster success he had two years ago from his Good Time album, with only 87 points this year (and 299 over the previous 18 months, vs 279 in 2008 alone). But that output was at least enough to get him past #17 Alabama, and 7000 is also just around the corner. Now, there's a bit of gap up to #15 Waylon, #14 Hank Jr., and #13 Marty, and that will probably require one more album of singles for AJ to reach them (242 pts from Waylon).

- Seems just like the same ol' Timmy McGraw (#22, 6281) that we've seen from the last half-decade: finally ending a long drought with a big #1 with Voice, and then following it with a spectacular failure with Still. His 114 points did get him past Sonny James, and he only needs 5 more points to pass #21 Loretta Lynn. He continues to be about three years behind the pace that AJ is on, but both are seriously starting to slip with their consistency.

Next, the former knot of three superstars is starting to untangle:

- Kenny Chesney (#31, 5719) keeps to a proven formula, by charting an album track and scoring a big hit, to post an 146-pt gain. Assuming he'll have a new album out within a couple of months, he'll once again post a pretty solid yearly number, and will probably cash in with some more charting album cuts. He'll at a minimum get past Tammy Wynette for #30 by December.

- Toby Keith (#32, 5696) made the unfortunate decision of releasing two back-to-back singles that had already charted as album cuts, back when his CD was released (Wayman's Song and Dog Has Its Day), so that really hamstrung him on how much he was able to generate so far this year. He did get his new single to debut on the last week of June. Only 92 points this half, and he was easily passed by the hard-charging Chesney. Will that be the final time that he'll ever be higher in points than Kenny? Might be a little tough for him to gain any positions the rest of the year, as Wynette's total is a ways off.

- Brooks & Dunn (#33, 5641) deserve a mention, even though they only got the final 11 points from their collaboration with Mac Powell. Hopefully their point-producing career isn't over, as surely they could be invited for some collaborations with other artists in the years ahead. But if Over The Next Hill was their final chart appearance, they'll at least be safe from being passed by anyone for at least six years, probably seven (and that would likely be Brad Paisley).

- Martina McBride (#59, 3998) has been keeping herself relevant, in a world dominated with female singers 10+ years younger than herself. 76 points from Wrong Baby got her past Eddie Rabbitt, but it'll be up to a follow-up single to get her the 24 more points she needs to catch Lynn Anderson for #58. Still, passsing the 4000 point mark is always noteworthy.

The battle royale continues between the Flatts and Brad, with their gains neck and neck this year (121 to 116).

- Rascal Flatts (#76, 3440) passed by Ferlin Husky, and they could have as many as seven more artists in range over the final six months of 2010, granting them admission into the top 70. The #1s are getting a little harder to come by, however, with only two in their last eight singles.

- Brad Paisley (#78, 3332) unfortunately opted to choose Water as a single release, which had previously charted after his album came out last fall. However, it might be able to get him back into a new #1 streak, which was memorably broken last fall after ten straight. He should be able to catch a few of the artists that the Flatts pass before December, and he'll also concentrate on shaving off the Flatts' lead on him, bit by bit.

- Keith Urban (#91, 3022) had the 4th highest first half gain, 170 points, and he smashed through the 3000 mark while bounding up 8 positions. Another six artists might be in range this year, as Keith has forgotten all the troubles from the Love, Pain, & Crazy Thing album.

- Clay Walker (#99, 2893) has unearthed a hit, only his second top 5 in the last ten years. That will give him needed insurance, to stay in the top 100 whenever Adkins, and especially the dangerous Underwood, come calling.

Notes for #101 to #200:

- It's always a smart move to lend your voice to a duet by another star, while you're still racking up points with your solo songs. And that's the way Trace Adkins (#112, 2656) was able to post the 5th largest gain, 149 points, and jump up seven positions. That gives Trace over 400 points during the last 18 months, and might move up his possible entry date into the top 100 by about six months, to April 2011.

- Montgomery Gentry's (#127, 2333) entry date into the top 100 has been pushed back substantially, if it happens at all (still over 600 points away, and that's even assuming Trace and Carrie get there first). They are certainly having a rough transition to the new decade, and 58 points this half. Gary Allan (#148, 2071) is doing decently, almost posting as many points in 6 months as he did all last year (71 to 78).

- Very workman-like half for Carrie Underwood (#155, 2005), as she jumped fifteen positions with her 141 points. She also locked up 2000 career points in less than 5 years' time. How long until she doubles that?

- Blake Shelton (#182, 1709) has hit his stride, and has become very dependable on producing big hits. His 132 points sent him up eleven positions, and his new single should bag him four more by the time it's done.

- Dierks Bentley (#187, 1646) missed out on what looked to be a strong candidate for #1 in February (Close Your Eyes), and his next release has been much less than inspiring. Therefore, he's only produced 86 points. This is shaping up to be a down year for Dierks.

Notes for #201 to #300:

- It's a good thing that Sugarland (#204, 1535) charted that Christmas song back in January, as it was the only thing that kept them from posting an 0-fer the first half. Just 31 points, and I am all of a suddenly regretting my choice to put them in my predicted top 10 point-earners during the next decade, which I posted here back in the winter. Still time for them to muster something together, but I'm now starting to doubt that they'll remain intact for the next 10 years. It would have been much smarter to have gone with Zac Brown or especially Miranda, in that projected top 10. Hello, "Modify Post" button!!

- Taylor Swift (#214, 1465) has seen some of the outlandishly high hype for her start to settle down. With her fully installed as a household name, it's up to her to now keep producing big songs to make that widespread fame feel worthy. She added 123 points, for twenty gained positions, and I suppose we'll see a huge brouhaha for her next album, when it comes out in the fall. You'd think she'd be more consistent with scoring #1s, however...

- A pretty consistent year for Craig Morgan (#222, 1406), comparable to his past several. 74 points so far, versus the 165 he got in '09. He's looking pretty strong for entry into the top 200, maybe by this time next year, but he's not doing it with a lot of flash.

- Joe Nichols (#228, 1398) caught some lightning in a bottle, to get his name out there again with a big #1. He increased eleven positions, and if he's able to sustain that momentum just enough, he'll reach the top 200 by this time next year as well.

- 86 points and eight gained positions for Darryl Worley (#235, 1385). Farmer's Daughter might get Rodney Atkins (#257, 1229) into the top 250.

- Have to rub my eyes real fast, to make sure that's really Gretchen Wilson (#267, 1193) with a 78-point first half. That's pretty much better than she's managed each of the last three complete years.

- Billy Currington (#271, 1160) has consistently paid his dues, and looks safe to get at least one #1 each year for the forseeable future. 108 points moved him up eight positions.

- Jason Aldean (#275, 1105) stormed into the top 300, with a three-#1-song streak very much alive, and could be heading for four. 172 points was the 3rd best half year move, and twenty-six gained positions was also one of the bests.

- Josh Turner (#281, 1056) also broke into the top 300 in the spring, and his 150 points appeared to come pretty easily. And he should have a good chance of notching two #1s in a row.

Notes on #301 to #400:

- Welcome to the big leagues, Miranda (#320, 875)! After years of receiving tons of (unearned) publicity and attention, and getting plumb playing spots at the award shows when her chart performance clearly wasn't justifying it, the last 8 months have seen her potential finally realized. Her first #1 song, plus a #2, rocketed her up 180 points, the 2nd highest artist total. That's more than she got all of last year (148), and shot her up sixty positions. Remember when she was hanging around on the list with Jack Ingram? Top 300 will be beckoning within a couple of months, and we'll see if she can take her place right next to Carrie and Taylor in chart consistency.

- Jack Ingram (#357, 765) is having trouble getting another song to break through, but 80 gained points sent him up thirty positions. Little Big Town (#364, 752) jumped twenty-one spots with their 65 points, and might have found their first big hit in a couple of years.

- The best performance so far this year belongs to Lady Antebellum (#378, 713). They timed their American Honey perfectly, debuting on the first week of the year, maximized that one's point potential, and are off and running with another big hit. That got them an impressive 186 points, outpacing their 327 points from 2009. They waltzed into the top 400, and should continue moving very quickly.

Notes for below #400:

- Also not too long of a wait for the top 400 for Darius Rucker (#421, 597) and Zac Brown (#423, 590). We'll soon be seeing if Rucker's success was a one-album-wonder, or see if he's going to stick around for a while. I really hope it's the latter. Zac Brown continues releasing extremely listenable songs, and scored a strong 139 points in the first half. At most, two months for Rucker to get to the top 400, four months for Zac.

- At just over 80 points away from the top 400, Kellie Pickler (#429, 577) can realistically be hoping that she makes it there by the end of the year. But with 69 points earned this half, and her songs continuing to climb very slowly, and not especially high, it's more likely to come early in 2011.

- The final artist I'll mention is Luke Bryan (#454, 530), as he appears to have a decent chance at getting his first #1. He'll position himself for a top 400 entry early next year, and should get there before his other nearby peers (#440 Jake Owen, #450 Eric Church, and #458 James Otto).

I also added two artists to the bottom of the list, that I started tracking in April:

Chris Young - 448
Bucky Covington - 422

Both of those guys seem like they'll be hanging around for a little while, and could threaten the top 400. Up next, for possible inclusion at the bottom of my list, are Randy Houser and Justin Moore. Two more big hits from them, and I'll be considering their candidacy. Easton Corbin's also off to a big start.

And that'll do it for this mid-year update. The end-of-year wrap-up will come in December, hopefully shortly after the release of the 12/25/10 chart. But one more post, coming shortly, will be the list of the top point earners so far this decade (which is of course just six months old). Those totals won't completely line up with the first half point totals I've given here in this post, as for the purposes of his decade lists, Joel Whitburn assigns songs to the decade where they attained their highest peak. Therefore, Reba's Consider Me Gone only chipped in those 46 points from January, to the yearly 2010 total that I mentioned above. But since the song didn't peak out (hit #1) until the first week of January, all 155 points from it go into the new decade column. Those specifics aren't quite that interesting, but I'll be posting the list very soon.

[Jonsolo]

Already 5% of the decade is in the books? Where does the time go?!

Joel Whitburn's top point gainers for the decade, 2010 to 2019:

1. Miranda Lambert - 257
2. Jason Aldean - 245
3. Reba McEntire - 236
4. Keith Urban - 225
5. Josh Turner - 222
6. Brad Paisley - 216
7. Trace Adkins - 208
8. Blake Shelton - 191
9T. Carrie Underwood - 189
9T. Zac Brown Band - 189
9T. Easton Corbin - 189
12. Tim McGraw - 188
13. Toby Keith - 185
14. Lady Antebellum - 181
15. George Strait - 179
16T. Dierks Bentley - 177
16T. Billy Currington - 177
18. Darius Rucker - 154
19. Chris Young - 151
20. Kenny Chesney - 146
21. Joe Nichols - 145
22. Gary Allan - 141
23T. Kellie Pickler - 130
23T. Justin Moore - 130
25T. Taylor Swift - 123
25T. Alan Jackson - 123
27. Rascal Flatts - 121
28. Gretchen Wilson - 120
29. Steel Magnolia - 108
30. Clay Walker - 101
31T. Montgomery Gentry - 99
31T. Eric Church - 99
33. Lee Brice - 98
34. Luke Bryan - 93
35. Jason Michael Carroll - 92
36. Darryl Worley - 86


And that looks like a nice place to stop, as I get a little less sure of the list as I get down to the bottom. There might be some very young artists, that I'm not tracking yet, that might have scored two minor chart songs, or one long-lasting big one, that I didn't notice. I did go and figure up what Corbin, Young, Moore, Magnolia, and Brice have totaled this year, even though they aren't on my main list yet being tracked. And of course, once the next Whitburn book comes out (in two years?), it'll help out in pointing out any other lesser-known artists that have actually accumulated enough points.

Naturally, the decade is still very young, and this list will be in flux every six months, for the next several years, as artists ebb and flow their way up and down it, while the point totals are still very close. It'll probably take five years until it solidifies enough, with the "cream rising to the top", that it'll be a good reflection of how the ending decade list will look.

Just having fun, I looked back at my predicted top 10 list (that I posted here on Feb. 2nd), for how the decade will go, and where those artists are at at this early stage in the decade:

1. Underwood - 9th
2. Paisley - 6th
3. Swift - 25th
4. Sugarland - yeah, here's the big miss, as they've been puzzingly MIA
5. Bentley - 16th
6. Aldean - 2nd
7. Chesney - 20th
8. Currington - 16th
9. Lady A - 14th
10. Rucker - 18th

The artists now in the top 10, that I didn't have in my predicted list, were Lambert, McEntire, Urban, Turner, Adkins, Zac Brown, and Corbin. Obviously, Reba and Adkins will migrate downward, as she's not going to be producing #1 hits every six months, and he benefitted from "double-dipping", with solo songs and a duet.

I think Urban will be running out of steam by the end of the decade, and won't be producing enough, but he can obviously rack up a ton of points in these next few years, to offset that eventual decline. I did guess that he'd break the 2000 point mark. As I also did with Zac Brown, who I in essence had at #11 on my predicted list, and he looks to be racking up the points early on.

And obviously, hindsight being 20/20, I would have rather had subbed in Lambert for Sugarland on my predicted list. There's still plenty of time for Sugarland to turn it around, 9.5 years to be exact, but I didn't anticipate the breakout success that Miranda had.

So with that, I'll bid you adieu until December, when the first year of the decade is in the books.

MODIFIED: this and the above post, once we found out that Jason Aldean's Crazy Town was peaking at #2. It had spent a 2nd week there at the end of June, the 6/26/10 chart, and I held off on giving it its +5 point bonus, for extra weeks while at a #2 peak, until I knew for sure it wasn't going to #1. So Jason's total for the half year went up by 5, both here and in the previous post.