Billboard Hot 100 : 04/11/2015 - Uptown Funk! (13th wk #1)

[Gary]

So we do know what would happen. Few songs debut at #1 anymore. Any significant radio airplay would get a song to chart now where it wouldn't have then. One Sweet Day had 6 weeks of pent up demand by the time the single was released.

Now say they release the single 6 weeks earlier to coincide with when radio picked it up. It would have had a hard time debuting at #1 under that scenario as well

[dajross6]

I remember Candle in the Wind 1997 having enough points in its release week to finish the year at #1 in 1997, let alone the other weeks that helped to accumulate points.

As for Uptown Funk, I'd say that something would come up and knock it off unexpectedly if I didn't know there was a remix they're holding off on. I think it's the ace in the hole (if needed) to push it to the record.

[Gary]

Getting the record seems unlikely I think. It has already fallen from #1 in On Demand streams and its lead over #2 is declining on the other metrics.

14 seems likely, 15 as well 16 and 17 seem a bit iffy given the declines.

[jebsib]

The One Sweet Day single hit retail Nov 14 1995, so yes, Wikipedia got it right.
Still 6 weeks after the song reached the Hot 100 Airplay audience impression threshold.
In today's climate, it would have hit #1 on the equivalent of its 7th week, and had been #2 airplay for two weeks already.

So although the single wasn't repressed the way they would be later on in the decade (recall Vertical Horizon?!?), it still wasn't immediate, like a "Born This Way".
In my book, this is more impressive - 6 extra weeks of potential burnout - 22 weeks of 'being hot'.

[Deleted]

Apr 2, 2015 13:08:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

Getting the record seems unlikely I think. It has already fallen from #1 in On Demand streams and its lead over #2 is declining on the other metrics.

14 seems likely, 15 as well 16 and 17 seem a bit iffy given the declines.

I'm sorry I just cannot see any song currently on the chart dethroning Uptown Funk in the next four weeks. Sugar is already on the decline. LMLYD has no chance. The most likely song to dethrone it IMO would be Earned It and that one still has a ways to go before catching up in streaming and airplay and is actually currently behind in sales even. Rihanna's song might have a chance if she releases an extremely racy video for the song and gets 25 million weekly US streams for it. Did you see how slowly UF is declining in radio?

[colson]

^But didn't that have to do with the label waiting for 'Fantasy' to cool off? I mean that's way too much radio exposure at once for 2 singles. It seemed like they wanted 'Fantasy' burnout quickly to move onto OSD before the holiday season.

[Gary]

Apr 2, 2015 13:26:22 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Apr 2, 2015 13:08:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

Getting the record seems unlikely I think. It has already fallen from #1 in On Demand streams and its lead over #2 is declining on the other metrics.

14 seems likely, 15 as well 16 and 17 seem a bit iffy given the declines.

I'm sorry I just cannot see any song currently on the chart dethroning Uptown Funk in the next four weeks. Sugar is already on the decline. LMLYD has no chance. The most likely song to dethrone it IMO would be Earned It and that one still has a ways to go before catching up in streaming and airplay and is actually currently behind in sales even. Rihanna's song might have a chance if she releases an extremely racy video for the song and gets 25 million weekly US streams for it. Did you see how slowly UF is declining in radio?

I don't have enough to disagree.  4 weeks is a long time for a song that has already peaked.  A new hot single could be released or the Rihanna song could pick up at radio or something else....or nothing.  The further it drops, the less it will take to dethrone it.  The record could happen but I don't think it is a given yet.

[Deleted]

Apr 2, 2015 13:27:40 GMT -5 colson said:

^But didn't that have to do with the label waiting for 'Fantasy' to cool off? I mean that's way too much radio exposure at once for 2 singles. It seemed like they wanted 'Fantasy' burnout quickly to move onto OSD before the holiday season.

That doesn't matter. The fact remains that it got 6 weeks of strong airplay before the single was released, regardless of WHY that's the case. Not really a legit debut since it had been already released, in some form, in the USA, before charting and it certainly would not have debuted at #1 on the current Hot 100.

[colson]

Why are you debating this? Who cares. It spent 16 weeks at #1.

[Deleted]

Apr 2, 2015 13:31:25 GMT -5 Gary said:

Apr 2, 2015 13:26:22 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I'm sorry I just cannot see any song currently on the chart dethroning Uptown Funk in the next four weeks. Sugar is already on the decline. LMLYD has no chance. The most likely song to dethrone it IMO would be Earned It and that one still has a ways to go before catching up in streaming and airplay and is actually currently behind in sales even. Rihanna's song might have a chance if she releases an extremely racy video for the song and gets 25 million weekly US streams for it. Did you see how slowly UF is declining in radio?

I don't have enough to disagree.  4 weeks is a long time for a song that has already peaked.  A new hot single could be released or the Rihanna song could pick up at radio or something else....or nothing.  The further it drops, the less it will take to dethrone it.  The record could happen but I don't think it is a given yet.

Lol I know I was just saying there is a decent possibility of it :) anything could happen within a matter of 4 weeks, of course!

[crystalphnx]

"Sugar" has been decreasing overall, but it's still gaining in airplay (whereas UF is decreasing in all 3 components, and at a faster rate than "Sugar".)

Airplay = 166 million (-4%) VS 133 million (+3%)
Sales = 165,000 (-12%) VS 143,000 (-8%)
Streaming = 16.2 million (-15%) VS 9.5 million (-4%)

As others have mentioned, the effects of Monday's "Sugar" performance won't be seen until the chart after the next one, but if current trends keep up, it does seem like "Sugar" could be a contender that week. Next week's numbers will give a better picture, of course, especially if "Sugar" starts losing airplay. If a surprise UF remix drops in the next couple weeks, then it would have the record on lock.

[Deleted]

Apr 2, 2015 13:44:46 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

If a surprise UF remix drops in the next couple weeks, then it would have the record on lock.

If the label realizes this, they would be very foolish not to take advantage of it! But them again, the Sugar remix didn't help much (and only for one week) so it might not really do anything for Mark/Bruno either. Although on the other hand one week could make all the difference...

Wait a minute, wasn't a remix with Trinidad James already released???

[crystalphnx]

Apr 2, 2015 13:51:23 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Wait a minute, wasn't a remix with Trinidad James already released???

ah, I had no idea that existed! It was uploaded to Vevo on March 19th, but I don't see it anywhere on US iTunes. Maybe they're holding out until right before the record is broken? Not sure why they'd put it on Vevo several weeks before, though.

[popbox]

I think a half off price slash on iTunes will be just as effective (or more so) as a remix for UF if they want the record in the bag.

[popbox]

The thing with UF is that streaming and airplay are still so absolutely gargantuan, that sales really is the only thing they have to be concerned about as far as it losing its #1 spot on the Hot 100 anytime over the next month. If they used a "cheap" tactic that made it increase in sales again it will be unstoppable for quite some time yet.

[ss8]

Apr 2, 2015 13:03:59 GMT -5 Gary said:

So we do know what would happen. Few songs debut at #1 anymore. Any significant radio airplay would get a song to chart now where it wouldn't have then. One Sweet Day had 6 weeks of pent up demand by the time the single was released.

Now say they release the single 6 weeks earlier to coincide with when radio picked it up. It would have had a hard time debuting at #1 under that scenario as well

Good points. Best example of this happening was I clearly remember when Boyz II Men actually knocked themselves from #1 (after 14 weeks!) in '95 w/ On Bended Knee. They and their record company but esp. Boyz II Men mustsa been wrecked in a way when that happened lol. I'm sure they def. wished OBK was maybe held back another month or so cause I'll Make Love To You was still doing great even at the 14th week! 

[ss8]

Apr 2, 2015 13:08:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

Getting the record seems unlikely I think. It has already fallen from #1 in On Demand streams and its lead over #2 is declining on the other metrics.

14 seems likely, 15 as well 16 and 17 seem a bit iffy given the declines.

Okay, then why w/it falling from #1 On Demand Streams last week and all the other 'declines' did it somehow still have a 40-50% (in billboards words 'significant lead')? Almost sounds like you're saying Sugar has a solid chance? lol. If I'm mistaken..my bad. It's just I think it's pretty unanimous that the only song in sight...still far away is Earned It.  

[ss8]

Apr 2, 2015 13:36:12 GMT -5 colson said:

Why are you debating this? Who cares. It spent 16 weeks at #1.

I agree, it's all about the song and how many weeks it spent at #1 and how UF may tie or beat it. The #1 'debut' appears to be what people are 'debating' which is beyond secondary here lol. 

[Gary]

Apr 2, 2015 14:58:27 GMT -5 ss8 said:

Apr 2, 2015 13:08:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

Getting the record seems unlikely I think. It has already fallen from #1 in On Demand streams and its lead over #2 is declining on the other metrics.

14 seems likely, 15 as well 16 and 17 seem a bit iffy given the declines.

Okay, then why w/it falling from #1 On Demand Streams last week and all the other 'declines' did it somehow still have a 40-50% (in billboards words 'significant lead')? Almost sounds like you're saying Sugar has a solid chance? lol. If I'm mistaken..my bad. It's just I think it's pretty unanimous that the only song in sight...still far away is Earned It.  

I did not single out a particular song to dethrone it.  I am saying that giving a song that has already peaked, 3, 4 or more weeks at #1 automatically seems a bit premature.  Some here say it is pretty much a sure thing, I am not ready to say that yet.

[crystalphnx]

I'm being a bit of a broken record here, but I don't get why "Sugar" isn't a possible contender in 2 weeks. We know that it's being performed on The Voice next Monday (4/6), and performances on that particular show have generally lead to a sales (and possibly streaming) boost.

Of course, we don't know how MUCH of a boost it will see after that performance, and we don't know if it'll be able to keep gaining (or even maintain) airplay, while UF slowly but surely declines. I think UF does have Week 14 in the bag, but I don't think we can make claims about Week 15 until we see what happens to "Sugar" next week. It does have a sizable gap to overcome, but I don't think we can claim that it's impossible...yet.

[Deleted]

Apr 2, 2015 15:20:32 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

I'm being a bit of a broken record here, but I don't get why "Sugar" isn't a possible contender in 2 weeks. We know that it's being performed on The Voice next Monday (4/6), and performances on that particular show have generally lead to a sales (and possibly streaming) boost.

Of course, we don't know how MUCH of a boost it will see after that performance, and we don't know if it'll be able to keep gaining (or even maintain) airplay, while UF slowly but surely declines. I think UF does have Week 14 in the bag, but I don't think we can make claims about Week 15 until we see what happens to "Sugar" next week. It does have a sizable gap to overcome, but I don't think we can claim that it's impossible...yet.

I guess it is possible, but it has a very big streaming gap to close and it is also behind in airplay and sales (maybe it won't be behind in airplay by then but still).

[ss8]

I also think Ellen def. is helping UF! lol. She plays it a lot on her show and *just had the guy on her show do his thing/dance on the treadmill to UF. (which I think is first going viral on You Tube). He said it's getting crazy amounts of new views per day (I'm thinking that counts towards streaming views for the song)? The performance was incredible

[popbox]

Apr 2, 2015 15:22:59 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Apr 2, 2015 15:20:32 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

I'm being a bit of a broken record here, but I don't get why "Sugar" isn't a possible contender in 2 weeks. We know that it's being performed on The Voice next Monday (4/6), and performances on that particular show have generally lead to a sales (and possibly streaming) boost.

Of course, we don't know how MUCH of a boost it will see after that performance, and we don't know if it'll be able to keep gaining (or even maintain) airplay, while UF slowly but surely declines. I think UF does have Week 14 in the bag, but I don't think we can make claims about Week 15 until we see what happens to "Sugar" next week. It does have a sizable gap to overcome, but I don't think we can claim that it's impossible...yet.

I guess it is possible, but it has a very big streaming gap to close and it is also behind in airplay and sales (maybe it won't be behind in airplay by then but still).

Yeah, it's still 40m away in audience impressions from topping it on airplay, so I don't see how it ever closes that gap now that its almost peaked in airplay too. Would need a big sales boost from The Voice because UF will have it on streaming/airplay.

[85la]

Apr 2, 2015 8:13:59 GMT -5 jebsib said:

You can slice 'most successful song of all time' a hundred ways.
Traditionally it's been based on weeks at #1 - and with UF! seemingly going further than any other song in recent memory - I checked chart authority Joel Whitburn's Record Research list based on the Hot 100.

Every week in the next month will be fascinating:
Whitburn's stats are - short of Billboard - as official as you get, and more mathematical;
He breaks ties at #1 by number of weeks in the top 10, then number of weeks top 40, and finally by number of weeks on the Hot 100.

If Mark / Bruno are number one next week, it will be for 14 weeks, tied with Whitney, Mariah, Elton, Boyz II Men, Los Del Rio and the BEP.
BUT if Bruno is #1 next week and then stays in the top 10 through the May 23rd chart (6 more weeks - highly likely), it will officially be the #2 song of all time (based again on Whitburn's famous calculations), pushing ahead of Macarena and Mariah's 23 weeks.

Naturally if it peaks at 15 weeks, it will be the #2 song of all time.

If it gets to 16 weeks, but also stays in the top 10 for a total of 20 weeks (a given, based on its current 18 weeks), it will be the #1 song of all time.
Naturally 17 weeks will need no qualifier (We'll have to go to the pre Rock era controversy over Francis Craig again)...

Pre-Rock controversy over Francis Craig? What is this? I've never heard of it.

[85la]

Interestingly, my copy of Candle in The Wind (which I bought used, about ten years after it was released), lists Something About the Way 1st, Candle 2nd, and also has a 3rd song, You Can Make History (Young Again), but I think it was from Canada. Was this the same for the U.S. release?

[thebops]

Apr 2, 2015 23:53:10 GMT -5 85la said:

Interestingly, my copy of Candle in The Wind (which I bought used, about ten years after it was released), lists Something About the Way 1st, Candle 2nd, and also has a 3rd song, You Can Make History (Young Again), but I think it was from Canada. Was this the same for the U.S. release?

My CD single that I bought in '97 has just the first two. You Can Make History was not on the disc. This I think is the official single in the States at least (Rocket 568108)

[jebsib]

85la, pre 1955 there were a variety of pop charts in Billboard, not just one Hot 100.
One of those charts listed the 1947 single "Near You" by Francis Craig as running for 17 weeks.
This stat made the song the #1 song of the pre-rock era in the Record Research books and was cited as such by Fred Bronson in Chart Beat during the One Sweet Day era.

The controversy arrived when several members here suggested that the pop chart used was one of many, and thus not definitive.

[Gary]

Apr 3, 2015 7:11:06 GMT -5 jebsib said:

85la, pre 1955 there were a variety of pop charts in Billboard, not just one Hot 100.
One of those charts listed the 1947 single "Near You" by Francis Craig as running for 17 weeks.
This stat made the song the #1 song of the pre-rock era in the Record Research books and was cited as such by Fred Bronson in Chart Beat during the One Sweet Day era.

The controversy arrived when several members here suggested that the pop chart used was one of many, and thus not definitive.

Which chart was that? Best sellers? Classic AT40 shows cited the weeks at #1 record as 13 on a number of occasions.

[imbondz]

Uptown Funk has good timing. It doesn't even feel as big as Happy, Blurred Lines or Thrift Shop.

[jebsib]

Gary, don't know which chart off hand.
We all discussed it (with "2m" a few years ago)

In Record Research's Pop Memories "Near You" is listed as the #1 song of the pre rock era based on 17 weeks (1890-1954);
White Christmas has 14 weeks, and there are 8 songs including the famous Tennessee Waltz at 13 weeks.

I wouldn't put too much stock in Classic AT40's pre-Hot 100 stats.
Over the years Casey would go back and forth on what the most successful Rock Era song was, sometimes listing Don't Be Cruel, occasionally going with Singing the Blues, and once even going with the 9 week Mack the Knife (clearly only counting the Hot 100 stats). Inconsistent.