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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 18:02:22 GMT -5
Ok I don't get why people are so confident that SYA will hold on for a second week lol. It is possible, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. I can see it returning to #1 later when airplay kicks in similar to Lollipop and We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (seriously I was most surprised when Whistle returned to #1 lol but I didn't mind at all). Given how strong the songs near the top are, if SYA falls to less than 300k next week (which it probably will), it will probably fall to #3 and it'll be between UF and Sugar for the #1 spot.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Apr 9, 2015 18:06:33 GMT -5
Kworb estimates 510k downloads for Wiz Khalifa now. :o
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 9, 2015 18:07:24 GMT -5
Ok I don't get why people are so confident that SYA will hold on for a second week lol. It is possible, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. I can see it returning to #1 later when airplay kicks in similar to Lollipop and We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (seriously I was most surprised when Whistle returned to #1 lol but I didn't mind at all). Given how strong the songs near the top are, if SYA falls to less than 300k next week (which it probably will), it will probably fall to #3 and it'll be between UF and Sugar for the #1 spot. The movie is a hit in a big way. The "tribute" song tied to the movie is striking a chord. Streaming/Airplay will increase during the next two weeks because of this. Although one week and drop like a rock is certainly possible. These would be factors working against it.
While all this is happening, UF will continue to decline as well.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 18:08:23 GMT -5
What is UP with that 14 week stumbling block?!? It will be 7 songs. We need a decisive runner-up, already! In all seriousness, it is interesting how many of these songs collapse very quickly. It's as if an unspoken national fatigue sets in instantly. That last point is esp. on point and truly makes you wonder. Although UF was gonna lose sales, it still def. woulda been #1 next week. I wonder though if the 'fatigue' for UF was due to the song itself or mainly cause something else popped up (SYA) and sucked whatever momentum UF still had going for it away? Almost everyone I go I hear very few people saying they're sick of UF (most say they love it and dont even mention it 'being out a while' etc..) compared to songs like BL and esp. Happy. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 9, 2015 18:10:23 GMT -5
What is UP with that 14 week stumbling block?!? It will be 7 songs. We need a decisive runner-up, already! In all seriousness, it is interesting how many of these songs collapse very quickly. It's as if an unspoken national fatigue sets in instantly. That last point is esp. on point and truly makes you wonder. Although UF was gonna lose sales, it still def. woulda been #1 next week. I wonder though if the 'fatigue' for UF was due to the song itself or mainly cause something else popped up (SYA) and sucked whatever momentum UF still had going for it away? Almost everyone I go I hear very few people saying they're sick of UF (most say they love it and dont even mention it 'being out a while' etc..) compared to songs like BL and esp. Happy. I think you hit it. Uptown Funk went from #1 to #5 almost immediately. The next big thing has arrived and it probably help accelerate the decline by drawing attention away from the song |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Apr 9, 2015 18:12:57 GMT -5
Do I get a cookie if I'm right that UF stays at #1 this week? Dunno if this is total sarcasm lol or there's something youre aware of that no one else in the world is (maybe except Billboard)  . Anyways, this was absolutely lottery like odds for this to happen to UF (or ANY song in its position). Looking like RCA truly didn't care as there is no discount or sign of one. The fact UF still has the airplay and streams beyond bizarre they didnt at least try! *Unless they know its a hopeless cause. There were always songs hot on the tails (or about to premiere) of all the previous songs at 13-14 weeks at #1. This is the last thing ANYone saw coming even just 5 days ago! Question is now, since SYA will hit #1 solely based on sales and soon to be streaming, if it holds on (which is likely cause theres like *nothing under it that's super strong w/ airplay and sales) *once airplay kicks in or even starts to explode we could be in the same exact situation in 3 months that we are now! lol. ITA - this has been an odd situation, with the exception of the one week when TOL came close, the other weeks have been blowouts. Until this tracking week, it's been more of 'how big' of a lead, nnot whether a track could challenge. Trust me, RCA cares more about profits than a record that, except for chart followers, isn't that important to their marketing or the public at large. (Does anyone really believe that the Gen Public and, even fans, think that OSD is 'bigger' than, say, WBT?) Selling a few extra digital singles at a discounted price is not worth it to them. Because of the uniqueness of the pairing, it's not like there will be a 'halo' effect for the album or future singles. If it was part of a Bruno album, that might be a little different. This is essentially a 'one-shot' deal. RCA is better off investing the marketing strategy and dollars to get another hit off of Ronson's album. |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 18:16:27 GMT -5
Ok I don't get why people are so confident that SYA will hold on for a second week lol. It is possible, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. I can see it returning to #1 later when airplay kicks in similar to Lollipop and We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (seriously I was most surprised when Whistle returned to #1 lol but I didn't mind at all). Given how strong the songs near the top are, if SYA falls to less than 300k next week (which it probably will), it will probably fall to #3 and it'll be between UF and Sugar for the #1 spot. Thats what I'm def hoping happens. Cautiously optimistic at best. It's just the timing is so awful lol. If only UF or even Sugar were still somehow minimally vs declining overall they had a very good shot of either retaking #1 (UF) or somehow squeezing maybe a week in (Sugar). 'That' may be the reason why RCA didnt do anything THIS week. They could be waiting (and hoping) SYA has that expected drop almost every song gets after its 2 and 3rd week. Sorry to say- while SYA is a nice song (keep trying to 'get' the love for it but can't lol), I just think it's more epic hype for the movie/timing than this amazing song in itself. It's actually a pretty ordinary rap/r&b power ballad by the numbers. |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 18:19:27 GMT -5
That last point is esp. on point and truly makes you wonder. Although UF was gonna lose sales, it still def. woulda been #1 next week. I wonder though if the 'fatigue' for UF was due to the song itself or mainly cause something else popped up (SYA) and sucked whatever momentum UF still had going for it away? Almost everyone I go I hear very few people saying they're sick of UF (most say they love it and dont even mention it 'being out a while' etc..) compared to songs like BL and esp. Happy. I think you hit it. Uptown Funk went from #1 to #5 almost immediately. The next big thing has arrived and it probably help accelerate the decline by drawing attention away from the song Thanks for getting what I was trying to say ;). I meant almost *everywhere* (not everyone) I go etc etc.. lol |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 18:29:55 GMT -5
Ok I don't get why people are so confident that SYA will hold on for a second week lol. It is possible, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. I can see it returning to #1 later when airplay kicks in similar to Lollipop and We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (seriously I was most surprised when Whistle returned to #1 lol but I didn't mind at all). Given how strong the songs near the top are, if SYA falls to less than 300k next week (which it probably will), it will probably fall to #3 and it'll be between UF and Sugar for the #1 spot. The movie is a hit in a big way. The "tribute" song tied to the movie is striking a chord. Streaming/Airplay will increase during the next two weeks because of this. Although one week and drop like a rock is certainly possible. These would be factors working against it.
While all this is happening, UF will continue to decline as well.
Whistle was also on the decline vs. WANEGBT ;) |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 18:31:27 GMT -5
Ok I don't get why people are so confident that SYA will hold on for a second week lol. It is possible, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. I can see it returning to #1 later when airplay kicks in similar to Lollipop and We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (seriously I was most surprised when Whistle returned to #1 lol but I didn't mind at all). Given how strong the songs near the top are, if SYA falls to less than 300k next week (which it probably will), it will probably fall to #3 and it'll be between UF and Sugar for the #1 spot. The movie is a hit in a big way. The "tribute" song tied to the movie is striking a chord. Streaming/Airplay will increase during the next two weeks because of this. Although one week and drop like a rock is certainly possible. These would be factors working against it.
While all this is happening, UF will continue to decline as well.
Thats the key point and goes back to what I've already said about the 'timing' being as awful as possible lol. I think it's just a bad coincidence for UF (not FF7 doing this purposely). If FF7 came out even a month ago, SYA still would've def. smashed for at least a week or two like it is now, but UF was still red hot in every way and most likely would've reclaimed #1 effortlessly while SYA would've fallen then prob. waited several weeks for radio and streaming to catch up. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 9, 2015 18:35:00 GMT -5
There is no downside to this discussion I think. Either a fresh song hits #1 or Mark G is going cookie shopping . win-win ;)
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 18:39:32 GMT -5
The movie is a hit in a big way. The "tribute" song tied to the movie is striking a chord. Streaming/Airplay will increase during the next two weeks because of this. Although one week and drop like a rock is certainly possible. These would be factors working against it.
While all this is happening, UF will continue to decline as well.
Whistle was also on the decline vs. WANEGBT ;) Youre right, it's not impossible. It's just we're now talking 2 weeks with song that's now on the decline (even if it's minimal). Not saying it's 100 perc over for UF until early-mid next week. If the airplay somehow doesn't plummet and sales somehow pick up 'a bit' and SYA starts to get more and more red updates and the % lead starts to shrink, there's still a chance. At this point I, like most, are past the point of focusing on the freaking record- it's just to see a damn song finally get to 15 weeks! lol. I know it only 'matters' to chart lovers, but to see SO many songs not get past 14 weeks is an eye sore at this point. |
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Kishi KCM
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Post by Kishi KCM on Apr 9, 2015 19:19:58 GMT -5
I don't want to hear this song again.
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TylerG11
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Post by TylerG11 on Apr 9, 2015 20:03:21 GMT -5
I'm sitting here furiously trying to figure out the hot 100 formula because I'm bored as hell. So far all I've come up with is 500,000 sales roughly equals 65.8 million radio + 31.38 million streams. So basically not that much...
Anyways, does anyone know what UF had for on-demand last week or two weeks ago? It might help me, might not.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Apr 9, 2015 20:22:48 GMT -5
I'm sitting here furiously trying to figure out the hot 100 formula because I'm bored as hell. So far all I've come up with is 500,000 sales roughly equals 65.8 million radio + 31.38 million streams. So basically not that much... Anyways, does anyone know what UF had for on-demand last week or two weeks ago? It might help me, might not. I don't know if this will help but it had 4.6 million On-Demand streams on 4/4. Have no clue for 4/11 or 4/18. |
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 9, 2015 20:37:29 GMT -5
I'm sitting here furiously trying to figure out the hot 100 formula because I'm bored as hell. So far all I've come up with is 500,000 sales roughly equals 65.8 million radio + 31.38 million streams. So basically not that much... Anyways, does anyone know what UF had for on-demand last week or two weeks ago? It might help me, might not. Doesn't sound right to me. |
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Post by TylerG11 on Apr 9, 2015 20:40:23 GMT -5
I'm sitting here furiously trying to figure out the hot 100 formula because I'm bored as hell. So far all I've come up with is 500,000 sales roughly equals 65.8 million radio + 31.38 million streams. So basically not that much... Anyways, does anyone know what UF had for on-demand last week or two weeks ago? It might help me, might not. Doesn't sound right to me. I used the article from yesterday with SYA numbers and the fact that 168,000 downloads was 72% of its total points, though it did not include on demand for that one either. Though I agree with you. It sounds off. |
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 9, 2015 20:46:12 GMT -5
Doesn't sound right to me. I used the article from yesterday with SYA numbers and the fact that 168,000 downloads was 72% of its total points, though it did not include on demand for that one either. Though I agree with you. It sounds off. it just seems with this math that it would need to sell about a million for #1 |
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 23:13:22 GMT -5
So...how bout them last few red updates for SYA and dark green for UF...
The weekends have been UF's bread and butter in sales all along, so this weekend could actually end up its saving grace. At the same time, I'm afraid the weekend box office business for Furious 7 will also cause SYA to increase.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 0:01:53 GMT -5
@markg94 I want 100 cookies too :( Actually you should buy 100 cookies for every pulse users if UF stays at #1!Hey guys like me if I am right  |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 10, 2015 1:48:26 GMT -5
So...how bout them last few red updates for SYA and dark green for UF... The weekends have been UF's bread and butter in sales all along, so this weekend could actually end up its saving grace. At the same time, I'm afraid the weekend box office business for Furious 7 will also cause SYA to increase. I think too much damage has already been done. Literally from like Sun-Thurs it was almost constant green updates for SYA and like u said, the wkd hasn't even started yet! :/. Eventually like every song (esp one like SYA which is a nice song but mainly ALL hype/timing than substance) it 'will' taper down. Question is when. If UF somehow doesnt start to freefall w/ airplay and sales and streaming stay respectable, theres a bit...very little bit of hope it can regain #1 the week after. If only it was still freaking gaining w/ in airplay/sales (vs the opposite) it would be close to a done deal :/ |
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Post by Enigma. on Apr 10, 2015 1:49:48 GMT -5
This thread is a one lovely mess, love it
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Post by Glove Slap on Apr 10, 2015 2:56:07 GMT -5
When was the last time the Hot 100 #1 was not on the Hot 100 airplay chart? That could happen this week. Was there one aside from the Idol singles?
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Apr 10, 2015 3:24:56 GMT -5
When was the last time the Hot 100 #1 was not on the Hot 100 airplay chart? That could happen this week. Was there one aside from the Idol singles? Did Harlem Shake rank? |
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Post by Ferrero on Apr 10, 2015 3:28:34 GMT -5
this completely reminds me of the Gangnam Style - One More Night scenario
hopefully SYA will prevail next week
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Post by Glove Slap on Apr 10, 2015 4:16:20 GMT -5
When was the last time the Hot 100 #1 was not on the Hot 100 airplay chart? That could happen this week. Was there one aside from the Idol singles? Did Harlem Shake rank? ...I forgot that ever happened. That is indeed it. I looked at the billboard articles and it never once reached the airplay chart in the 5 weeks it was at the top. |
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Apr 10, 2015 5:37:34 GMT -5
...I forgot that ever happened. That is indeed it. I looked at the billboard articles and it never once reached the airplay chart in the 5 weeks it was at the top. Yeah, the song only got in the 40s on pop and rhythmic iirc. Had they done the Juicy J vocal version before the song went viral I think it would've got more airplay. |
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Post by Future Captain on Apr 10, 2015 5:42:15 GMT -5
My calculation show that UF will need around 8m+ lead in streaming to stay #1, while predicting that SYA's sales will be around the low 400k's (Because someone in this thread insisted so).
If you want, I can elaborate, but I will say that if UF couldn't close the huge gap in sales or managed to stay well ahead (10m+ lead) in streaming of SYA, UF can kiss 25/4 chart #1's ass goodbye.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 6:17:08 GMT -5
When was the last time the Hot 100 #1 was not on the Hot 100 airplay chart? That could happen this week. Was there one aside from the Idol singles? I thought Wrecking Ball was not yet on the airplay chart when it first jumped to #1... |
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Apr 10, 2015 7:55:37 GMT -5
When was the last time the Hot 100 #1 was not on the Hot 100 airplay chart? That could happen this week. Was there one aside from the Idol singles? I thought Wrecking Ball was not yet on the airplay chart when it first jumped to #1... It debuted at No. 59 on Radio Songs (back when the chart had 75 positions) the week it jumped to No. 1 on the Hot 100. |
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