Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 10, 2015 14:21:13 GMT -5
It has only been a little more than a day and this thread is already on its 6th page  very interesting... If you and I quit posting in this thread it would slow down alot. Your 24 posts and my 16 have added to the growth a bit. |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 10, 2015 14:33:52 GMT -5
My question is if SYA isn't number one this week, will it get it before UF breaks the record?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 14:38:13 GMT -5
My question is if SYA isn't number one this week, will it get it before UF breaks the record? Doubtful unless it sustains super high sales levels while growing in airplay and streaming. I will be very surprised to see SYA being #1 on 5/2 or even 5/19. By 5/16 if it is still selling well it should have enough airplay to take/retake the throne for a couple weeks similarly to WANEGBT and Lollipop. I still believe that UF will be able to tie the record if SYA's sales tumble as expected unless UF somehow manages to fall so fast that it passes Sugar on the way down (which would be nice as I would like for Sugar to get a week at #1 as well as UF getting a 15th week). |
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Apr 10, 2015 14:58:07 GMT -5
"See You Again" video is up to 15.4 million views.
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wavey.
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Post by wavey. on Apr 10, 2015 15:09:03 GMT -5
"See You Again" video is up to 15.4 million views. :'( |
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Apr 10, 2015 15:24:27 GMT -5
"See You Again" video is up to 15.4 million views. :'( Wiz coming through HARD! |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Apr 10, 2015 15:26:56 GMT -5
I know they are generally not customized, but do the Kworb estimates reflect trajectory at all (eg - See You Again will likely slow down,and the estimates reflect that) or do they assume 100% constant sales (if See You Again sells at the exact same rate from now until Sunday at 11:59:59, its total will be 510K)?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 15:33:03 GMT -5
I know they are generally not customized, but do the Kworb estimates reflect trajectory at all (eg - See You Again will likely slow down,and the estimates reflect that) or do they assume 100% constant sales (if See You Again sells at the exact same rate from now until Sunday at 11:59:59, its total will be 510K)? I'm thinking the latter. I can't imagine it selling more than 500k. It would have to have been at 4x the next highest song for the entire week in order for that to happen and it was mostly around 3.5x the last few days and in the beginning of the week it was just over 2x. Not to mention it is still falling and at about 3x the next highest ATM. I think around 400k is what it'll get unless it gets many dark greens this weekend (which I doubt since it is no longer opening weekend and box office revenue for the movie will probably be significantly less than it was this past weekend; it might stop getting reds and maybe a bit of green but I don't think it'll launch like it did at the end of last week). In other words, if they update the predictions today, I'm quite sure the predicted number will be less than 510k, maybe even less than 450k. |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Apr 10, 2015 16:14:41 GMT -5
Hmm is maybe my prediction seeming not so crazy anymore?
Here I'll throw another one out there: SYA will sell 328k this week.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Apr 10, 2015 16:34:01 GMT -5
"See You Again" sold 168k last week based on only a few days at a lower pop bar. It has a full seven days of sale now and even as "Uptown Funk" is slightly increasing again, it remains at less than a third of Wiz.
There's no way it isn't selling 400k+
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Apr 10, 2015 16:35:44 GMT -5
Changing topic, how long will be Riptide on the Hot 100?
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 10, 2015 16:37:15 GMT -5
Changing topic, how long will be Riptide on the Hot 100? not much longer |
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TylerG11
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Post by TylerG11 on Apr 10, 2015 17:02:08 GMT -5
I'm guessing 422K for SYA in sales. I'm also beginning to think that it will be #1 this week, and UF will take back over next week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 17:09:58 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be #1 after UF/SYA (and maybe, just maybe, Sugar)? I'm banking on either EI, SUAD, or GDFR (of course SUAD is lacking streaming so it would certainly need to pick up within the next few weeks to get that #1). Really hard to tell which one. Whichever it is (or if it will end up being something other than those three) it will probably be 4-5 weeks before it gets there since the UF/SYA/Sugar competition is pretty tough right now and those songs are stil pretty far behind.
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Apr 10, 2015 17:13:19 GMT -5
I think Ed Sheeran and Ellie Goulding will both be #1 after Uptown Funk spends its 16th week there and then falls 1-8.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Apr 10, 2015 17:30:59 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be #1 after UF/SYA (and maybe, just maybe, Sugar)? I'm banking on either EI, SUAD, or GDFR (of course SUAD is lacking streaming so it would certainly need to pick up within the next few weeks to get that #1). Really hard to tell which one. Whichever it is (or if it will end up being something other than those three) it will probably be 4-5 weeks before it gets there since the UF/SYA/Sugar competition is pretty tough right now and those songs are stil pretty far behind. How IS Sugar stacking up at the moment sales-wise Vs. Uptown Funk? I'm just wondering if Funk's typical weekend boost will push it back ahead of M5, or if Sugar's two versions being Top 50 ATM are keeping it too far ahead for that. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 18:19:15 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be #1 after UF/SYA (and maybe, just maybe, Sugar)? I'm banking on either EI, SUAD, or GDFR (of course SUAD is lacking streaming so it would certainly need to pick up within the next few weeks to get that #1). Really hard to tell which one. Whichever it is (or if it will end up being something other than those three) it will probably be 4-5 weeks before it gets there since the UF/SYA/Sugar competition is pretty tough right now and those songs are stil pretty far behind. How IS Sugar stacking up at the moment sales-wise Vs. Uptown Funk? I'm just wondering if Funk's typical weekend boost will push it back ahead of M5, or if Sugar's two versions being Top 50 ATM are keeping it too far ahead for that. UF is actually ahead of both versions of Sugar combined right now. And that's not counting the second version of UF. With the second version, UF is actually #2 in sales right now (behind, obviously, SYA). Coming to think of it, I think Sugar probably has no chance at #1 on the Hot 100 now unless UF plummets soon. |
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 10, 2015 18:28:18 GMT -5
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Apr 10, 2015 18:37:48 GMT -5
Obviously Billboard thinks it's going to be close. OR they're trying to build suspense by framing a decisive result into a horse race (as they would be wont to do since that would easily draw more interest than a clear runaway either way).  |
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TylerG11
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Post by TylerG11 on Apr 10, 2015 18:39:32 GMT -5
So billboard says around 400K from SYA... Interesting. Much closer to what I would expect from it compared to the 510K from kworb.
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Apr 10, 2015 20:31:09 GMT -5
UF is listed under Hot New Tracks (lol), so that probably explains the newly, biggish, iTunes updates. Sneaky devils. I wonder if it can get back up to around 50% before Sunday night? The race is going to be close. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 20:51:57 GMT -5
SYA at over 17M views on YouTube; it will probably have 25M or so by Sunday night...of course less than half of them are US views...but that doesn't include Spotify...I'm starting to think I underestimated the amount of streaming for SYA  SYA will have to consistently get reds and sell less than 400k this week while UF continues to gain or else UF has no chance...unless of course only like 20% of those views are from USA but I highly doubt that. |
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felipe
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Post by felipe on Apr 10, 2015 20:57:46 GMT -5
How is Worth It's airplay? I don't think I see it in any of the updates?
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Ryan
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Post by Ryan on Apr 10, 2015 21:16:44 GMT -5
UF is now back to #2 on iTunes.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 10, 2015 21:20:29 GMT -5
@markg94 I will take mine chocolate chip :o
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Apr 10, 2015 21:22:19 GMT -5
If my calculation is correct, despite the surge if UF, SYA is still going to be #1 in 25/4. Like I say, kiss the 25/4 #1's ass goodbye :kii:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 21:33:57 GMT -5
How is Worth It's airplay? I don't think I see it in any of the updates? It is #110 with in airplay 19M total AI from pop and rhythmic, according to Kworb |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Apr 10, 2015 21:41:12 GMT -5
Ugh. I streamed Uptown Funk tonight. Even tho I don't want it to break the record it's such a great song.
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felipe
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Post by felipe on Apr 10, 2015 22:13:47 GMT -5
Assuming SYA is #1 next week, how likely would it be for it to hold on to that position for a second week? Or would UF be expected to reclaim it?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 22:15:19 GMT -5
Assuming SYA is #1 next week, how likely would it be for it to hold on to that position for a second week? Or would UF be expected to reclaim it? Unless SYA manages to sell over 300k next week, it won't stay at #1. |
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