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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 10:58:55 GMT -5
I could see Adele and Ariana selling, say, 300,000 on week 1, but week 2 onwards they will sell less. I know digital track sales have declined in recent years... but I think Adele will far exceed 300k first week. The hype, the broadness of her audience... it's unparalleled right now. Maybe it'll be stifled by a pre-order instant gratification situation with the album going up for pre-orders tomorrow... but that would be the only reason it doesn't do HUGE numbers, imo. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 22, 2015 11:09:05 GMT -5
And Justin Bieber's 2nd single will be out in the next few weeks.
Rihanna's 1st single?
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Post by when the pawn... on Oct 22, 2015 11:13:00 GMT -5
Yeah, the Hot 100 should get pretty interesting with Adele, One Direction, Justin Bieber, Rihanna and Ariana Grande all coming on strong. Plus The Weeknd and Drake.
I do think "Hotline Bling" is legitimate competition for these new releases but I've gotta think Adele will have some major sales. It really does partially depend on how good these unreleased songs are.
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Oct 22, 2015 11:22:52 GMT -5
Yeah it'll be interesting.
Personally I hope they all get #1 (maybe except One Direction, not a huge fan of them).
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Oct 22, 2015 11:54:26 GMT -5
This week's prediction:
Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points
1 - Hotline Bling - 160 - 120 - 24.0 = 52,000
2 - The Hills - 120 - 150 - 18.0 = 45,000
3 - What Do You Mean - 85 - 130 - 14.0 = 35,600
4/5 - Stitches - 80 - 110 - 10.5 = 29,300
4/5 - 679 - 60 - 69 - 15.5 = 29,100
6 - Wildest Dreams - 85 - 145 - 5.5 = 27,700
Top-3 is pretty much clear. Stitches would be battling it out with 679 for #4 spot. Wildest Dreams might have a chance to enter Top-5, if it can close the streaming gap with 679, but I'm not very hopeful.
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Oct 22, 2015 14:23:57 GMT -5
I am not confident in the fact that drake will be number one After this upcoming one. We've got ADELE, who's had hype building since sky fall so at least 2 years worth. I think she'll easily do over 300k. And the week right after we've got Ariana grande and her fanbase is massive. If drake gets number one again it'll most likely be 3 weeks from now.
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wavey.
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Post by wavey. on Oct 22, 2015 15:01:32 GMT -5
HB is a definite #1, ADELE won't get a full week, but a huge response nonetheless.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 22, 2015 15:10:59 GMT -5
ADELE won't get a full week, but a huge response nonetheless. Full week of? She is releasing both the song and video tomorrow? I hope Hotline Bling gets #1 this week for turnover, followed by the releases from Adele and Ariana |
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wavey.
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Post by wavey. on Oct 22, 2015 15:16:54 GMT -5
ADELE won't get a full week, but a huge response nonetheless. Full week of? She is releasing both the song and video tomorrow? My bad, I forgot they changed the tracking period. |
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Daniel Collins
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Post by Daniel Collins on Oct 22, 2015 16:02:28 GMT -5
Mediabase 10/22/15
1. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 181.315 (+ 0.100)
2. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 172.603 (+ 2.177)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 154.814 (+ 1.103)
4. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 137.273 (- 2.768)
5. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 135.298 (+ 2.230)
6. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 121.391 (+ 1.729)
7. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 111.340 (- 3.188)
8. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 106.099 (+ 0.792)
9. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 102.861 (- 2.112)
10. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 93.284 (- 1.254)
FILA
11. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 93.005 (+ 1.753)
12. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 83.901 (- 0.507)
13. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 80.040 (+ 0.661) ▲
14. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 79.214 (- 0.990) ▼
15. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Downtown: 65.644 (+ 0.618)
16. LUKE BRYAN - Strip It Down: 65.151 (- 0.172)
17. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 65.003 (- 0.127)
18. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 63.117 (+ 2.087) ▲
19. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 62.675 (+ 0.543) ▼
20. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 61.838 (+ 1.819) ▲
CURIOSIDADES
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 60.556 (+ 0.171)
ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 59.331 (+ 1.332)
COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 57.393 (+ 0.630)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 55.597 (+ 0.574)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 51.810 (+ 0.735)
BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 47.653 (+ 0.662)
SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 39.380 (+ 0.689)
DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 27.258 (+ 1.134)
RUDIMENTAL - Lay It All On Me f/Ed Sheeran: 26.762 (+ 1.342)
THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 21.302 (+ 1.171)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 15.587 (+ 0.397)
CHRIS BROWN - Zero: 9.718 (+ 0.405)
ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 7.969 (+ 1.346)
FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 2.666
TOVE LO - Moments: 2.293
GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 2.015 (+ 0.816)
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Oct 22, 2015 16:09:41 GMT -5
I could see Adele and Ariana selling, say, 300,000 on week 1, but week 2 onwards they will sell less. I know digital track sales have declined in recent years... but I think Adele will far exceed 300k first week. The hype, the broadness of her audience... it's unparalleled right now. Maybe it'll be stifled by a pre-order instant gratification situation with the album going up for pre-orders tomorrow... but that would be the only reason it doesn't do HUGE numbers, imo. Yeah, Ariana should be in the 250-350k range depending on quality, but Adele's hype is MASSIVE. Anything less than 375k would be upsetting, and I'm honestly expecting near 500k. Maybe pushing 600k if it's a really good song. Also, Drake will probably take #1 next with Adele taking it the week after. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 16:22:32 GMT -5
Even though he will probably get only one week due to the timing, it's still better than nothing and I'm glad Drake finally gets a lead #1!
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 22, 2015 16:33:13 GMT -5
Even though he will probably get only one week due to the timing, it's still better than nothing and I'm glad Drake finally gets a lead #1! Good for you! I can't even live to see Kendrick getting that lead #1.. |
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Oct 22, 2015 18:17:36 GMT -5
Drake will probably be #1 this upcoming week. Adele will be #1 the following week, and if Ariana has very strong sales then she will probably be #1 the following week.
But we have something to look forward to every week for the next month:
Tomorrow: Adele single
Next Week: Ariana single
Week 3: No big releases so would be a great time for Rihanna to drop something
Week 4: 1D and Bieber albums
Week 5: Adele album
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musicrocks
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Post by musicrocks on Oct 22, 2015 18:30:32 GMT -5
Yay! The charts are exciting again!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 18:31:20 GMT -5
Drake will probably be #1 this upcoming week. Adele will be #1 the following week, and if Ariana has very strong sales then she will probably be #1 the following week. But we have something to look forward to every week for the next month: Tomorrow: Adele single Next Week: Ariana single Week 3: No big releases so would be a great time for Rihanna to drop something Week 4: 1D and Bieber albums Week 5: Adele album Don't forget the Bieb's latest single dropping tomorrow. |
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Oct 22, 2015 18:34:18 GMT -5
Drake will probably be #1 this upcoming week. Adele will be #1 the following week, and if Ariana has very strong sales then she will probably be #1 the following week. But we have something to look forward to every week for the next month: Tomorrow: Adele single Next Week: Ariana single Week 3: No big releases so would be a great time for Rihanna to drop something Week 4: 1D and Bieber albums Week 5: Adele album Don't forget the Bieb's latest single dropping tomorrow. I thought his new single dropped today? I already heard it on the radio on my way home from work. Sounds really good, similar to WDYM and WAUN |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2015 18:36:29 GMT -5
Don't forget the Bieb's latest single dropping tomorrow. I thought his new single dropped today? I already heard it on the radio on my way home from work. Sounds really good, similar to WDYM and WAUN Huh... I heard the song today as well (and I thought it was good on first listen), but I've read and heard it'd be released and become an official single tomorrow morning. |
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Oct 22, 2015 18:42:03 GMT -5
I thought his new single dropped today? I already heard it on the radio on my way home from work. Sounds really good, similar to WDYM and WAUN Huh... I heard the song today as well (and I thought it was good on first listen), but I've read and heard it'd be released and become an official single tomorrow morning. Regardless, it sounds like the song will do well. I'm just worried with so many new singles this month, that not all of them will see success. I still hope Demi's, Meghan's, and Ellie's singles will continue to perform well even thougt we have all new big releases from Adele, Ariana, and Bieber. |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Oct 22, 2015 19:09:09 GMT -5
Biebs gonna c-block ADELE from #1 is the song is good. If "Hello" is as dreary as the snippet from X-Factor, I don't think it's going to be as big as some might project. "Sorry" is already getting a lot of buzz in media - smart to release it a day early, and nary a word about ADELE's new single. Like I said in "Hello" thread, if it weren't for Pulse, I'd have no idea she was releasing anything - and when you think about ADELE's base - they are certainly more 'mass market" and less likely to follow release dates, etc.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Oct 22, 2015 19:12:23 GMT -5
Biebs gonna c-block ADELE from #1 is the song is good. If "Hello" is as dreary as the snippet from X-Factor, I don't think it's going to be as big as some might project. "Sorry" is already getting a lot of buzz in media - smart to release it a day early, and nary a word about ADELE's new single. Like I said in "Hello" thread, if it weren't for Pulse, I'd have no idea she was releasing anything - and when you think about ADELE's base - they are certainly more 'mass market" and less likely to follow release dates, etc. I can only speak for myself, but I have seen the Adele news everywhere. It's all over entertainment web sites, the social media I use, etc. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Oct 22, 2015 20:58:51 GMT -5
Hello is supposedly not a "dreary" piano ballad.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Oct 22, 2015 21:07:06 GMT -5
I am surprised at how much I've seen about Adele as well.
Everyone is overestimating the possible #1s upcoming. If any one of those are exceptionally big (namely Adele) it could easily block others.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Oct 22, 2015 22:51:07 GMT -5
I thought his new single dropped today? I already heard it on the radio on my way home from work. Sounds really good, similar to WDYM and WAUN Huh... I heard the song today as well (and I thought it was good on first listen), but I've read and heard it'd be released and become an official single tomorrow morning. It was serviced to radio today, digital release tomorrow. |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Oct 23, 2015 0:53:06 GMT -5
Next week early prediction
1. Adele - 55k
2. Drake - 50k
3. The Weeknd - 42k
And the week after:
1. Drake - 50k
2. Ariana - 45k
3. The Weeknd - 40k
4. Adele - 35k
I don't think Ariana will get #1. Bieber debuted with 58k. Adele can match that but not sure Ariana can. She doesn't have that mass following.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 23, 2015 1:24:19 GMT -5
Next week early prediction 1. Adele - 55k 2. Drake - 50k 3. The Weeknd - 42k And the week after: 1. Drake - 50k 2. Ariana - 45k 3. The Weeknd - 40k 4. Adele - 35k I don't think Ariana will get #1. Bieber debuted with 58k. Adele can match that but not sure Ariana can. She doesn't have that mass following. Well.. You underestimated the power of the great Adele imo, don't forget that she's dropping the video as the same time.. So my early prediction is: 11/14/15 1. Hello Digital: 350k-700k Streaming: 15m-30m Points: 50k-93k (I'll take the middle ground of 72k) 2. Hotline bling Digital: 180k-230k Radio: about 130m? Streaming: 19m-25m Points: around 52k 3. The Hills Digital: 90k-120k Radio: about 150m Streaming: 16m-20m Points: about 44k The second week is still likely to be hers if Ariana is not dropping her vid 1. Hello D: 250k-450k R: <60m? S: 13m-25m Points: say 58k 2. Hotline Bling D: 150k-220k R: 130m-140m S: 18m-24m Points: say 51k 3. Focus D: 300k-500k R: 25m-50m I guess? S: 10m-15m Points: 35k-60k (47.5k right in the middle) But whatevs the upcoming weeks are gonna be strong and The Hills are lucky enough to snatch 5 wks @ no.1 right before the massive bombardments.. |
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Oct 23, 2015 4:51:15 GMT -5
Now that Adele is officially back, all our faves could forget about a number hit for like... the rest of the year.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 23, 2015 5:23:29 GMT -5
I could see Adele and Ariana selling, say, 300,000 on week 1, but week 2 onwards they will sell less. I know digital track sales have declined in recent years... but I think Adele will far exceed 300k first week. The hype, the broadness of her audience... it's unparalleled right now. Maybe it'll be stifled by a pre-order instant gratification situation with the album going up for pre-orders tomorrow... but that would be the only reason it doesn't do HUGE numbers, imo. But instant grats are still counted as single sales and not subtracted until the album release, so this shouldn't be a problem for her, should it? |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Oct 23, 2015 6:17:39 GMT -5
Well the only thing that's safe to assume is the top 3 on 11/14 is getting a favelift
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Oct 23, 2015 6:58:07 GMT -5
I'm here for Drake getting #1 then Adele and then Ariana.
I'm looking at Adele's rank and she's top 5 right. I kind of expected her slayage to make it #1 before i woke up.
I might not get the back to back to back new #1s that i hoped for.
Edit: they did an update and it went from #4 to #1
Whew. Now that's more like it. So hopefully my plan comes to fruition
At least Drake will get his lead #1 single.
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