Warning: Super Long Post Ahead!
Musical Event - "Home Alone Tonight", "Are You Sure?", "The Driver", "Diamond Rings & Old Barstools"
...??? What other events were there that I'm forgetting about? Would album tracks be acceptable? "Playing With Fire"? "You Can't Stop Me"? IDK, IDK.
Apparently album tracks aren't eligible for the Vocal Event category this year. According to the ACM voting criteria, for a song to be nominated in the vocal event category, it must have been released as a single and peaked in the top 50 on the Billboard and/or Mediabase charts (not including Billboard's Hot Country Songs). So that would rule out the Kacey Musgraves/Willie Nelson song and the other album tracks you listed here.
I'm also thinking that "Home Alone Tonight" won't be nominated. The eligibility period is
November 27, 2014 to
November 25, 2015, and "Home Alone Tonight" went for adds on November 23. So technically its adds date was just
before the cutoff, and of course it was released to radio in early November, a couple weeks before its adds date...but I think they'll hold it for next year, as its chart peak will be in 2016 (which will make it eligible for the 2017 ACM Awards). This also means that both Charles Kelley's "The Driver" and Hank Williams, Jr.'s "Are You Ready For The Country?" likely aren't eligible this year; both were released during the eligibility period, but neither of them cracked the top 50 until December/January...which is after the eligibility cutoff. Both "The Driver" and "Are You Ready For The Country?" will probably be songs that are more likely to be nominated in 2017.
Anyway, I came up with 5 collaborations that
did go top 50 (most of them went all the way to the top 5) during the eligibility period, so I'm guessing these 5 will be the nominees for the
Vocal Event category? "Home Alone Tonight" is the only other one I can think of that could possibly sneak in.
1) Keith Urban and Eric Church - "Raise 'Em Up"
2) Kenny Chesney with Grace Potter - "Wild Child"
3) Miranda Lambert with Little Big Town - "Smokin' and Drinkin'"
4) Blake Shelton with Ashley Monroe - "Lonely Tonight"
5) Tim McGraw with Catherine Dunn - "Diamond Rings & Old Barstools"
Now, for the rest of my predictions...
According to the press release, Entertainment Tonight's Nancy O'Dell will unveil the nominees in the New Male Vocalist, New Female Vocalist, and New Vocal Duo/Group categories online on Monday morning. I believe the last time the ACM split up the New Artist category like this was 3 years ago, and they had 3 per category (3 males, 3 females, 3 duos/groups). So I'm just going to assume they'll do the same this year.
New Male Vocalist:
Sam Hunt (Universal) and
Chris Stapleton (Universal) are locks. Musically they're polar opposites, but they're both gonna be in this category, I'm sure of it. The last spot is tougher to guess since there isn't a clear-cut favorite, and of course country radio loves to give airplay and big hits to new male artists...but if I had to guess I'd say it'll come down to a battle among
Dustin Lynch (BBR),
Chase Rice (Sony), and
Chris Janson (Warner). Guys like Thomas Rhett, Brett Eldredge, Tyler Farr, Kip Moore, and Cole Swindell aren't eligible in this category (Cole won it last year, and the other four -- Thomas, Brett, Tyler, and Kip -- have been nominated each of the last 2 years, which makes them ineligible this year).
New Female Vocalist: The two obvious nominees here are
Cam (Sony) and
Kelsea Ballerini (Black River). It was tough to find someone who could fill up the 3rd spot...Kacey Musgraves has already been nominated twice (48th and 49th annual ACM's) so I'm pretty sure she's ineligible, Ashley Monroe has released 3 studio albums so she's ineligible, Jana Kramer won Top New Female Artist 3 years ago so she's most likely ineligible, and according to the criteria, Cassadee Pope wouldn't be eligible since she didn't have a top 40 single or an album that sold 100k+ during the eligibility period (new artist nominees need one or the other, so that also excludes people like Clare Dunn, Lauren Alaina, Lindsay Ell, etc). So I'm pretty sure that that leaves us with only
RaeLynn (BMLG) and
Mickey Guyton (Universal). Mickey's only single scraped the top 30 on Mediabase, but it was critically-acclaimed. RaeLynn's "God Made Girls"
wasn't acclaimed, but it peaked in the top 20 in early 2015, aka during the eligibility period, and of course it was supported by iHeartMedia's On The Verge program.
New Vocal Duo/Group: Ah, we have more options here. I think both
Maddie & Tae (BMLG) and
Dan + Shay (Warner) are locks here, and for the 3rd spot, I think it'll likely be a toss-up between
Old Dominion (Sony) and
A Thousand Horses (BMLG), and between the two of them, Old Dominion has more momentum so I give them the edge. Parmalee and Brothers Osborne are other possibilities.
Now for the big categories...
Entertainer of the Year:• Eric Church
• Garth Brooks
• Jason Aldean
• Kenny Chesney
• Luke Bryan
I'm most confident about Luke, Kenny, Garth, and Jason. Luke was nominated each of the last 3 years, Jason was nominated 2 out of the last 3, and Garth was nominated last year. Kenny hasn't been nominated here in a few years, but he had four #1's off his last album and a really big tour, so I think he'll be one of the front-runners. For the 5th spot, I gave Eric Church a very slight edge over Florida Georgia Line, Zac Brown Band, and Miranda Lambert. Blake Shelton is another possibility but he wasn't nominated last year and so I'm thinking he might be left out again this year. Keith Urban and Carrie Underwood didn't really tour last year so I think the chance of either of them being nominated is pretty low. I guess I could see Garth being left out since he didn't have a radio presence, but his tour was so huge that it puts him in my top 4.
Male Vocalist of the Year:• Blake Shelton
• Chris Stapleton
• Eric Church
• Jason Aldean
• Luke Bryan
• Sam Hunt
This category is probably the hardest. I put 6 above, but it could easily be 10 or 12. Anyway, typically there are 5 nominees, but last year there were 6, so maybe there will be 6 again this year? Idk. Anyway, Jason Aldean won it the last 2 years so I think he's a lock. And then there's no way you can leave out Luke Bryan (he won it in 2013 and was nominated each of the last 2 years as well). Blake Shelton was nominated each of the last 3 years, so I've gotta believe he'll hang onto a spot. Eric Church was nominated 2 out of the last 3 years, and he released a critically-acclaimed album, so I think he's got a good chance of being nominated. And then I think both Sam Hunt and Chris Stapleton have a really good chance to push themselves into this one. Of course that still leaves out Kenny Chesney, Keith Urban, Dierks Bentley, Brad Paisley, Chris Young, and Thomas Rhett. Thomas is one who could easily get in, but I think there will be a limit to the "new blood", and with Sam Hunt and Chris Stapleton seeming a bit more likely to be nominated, I think Thomas will get the short end of the stick. I know he just had a 6-week #1, but that came after the eligibility period ended...and if you look at album sales, both
Montevallo (nearly 1 mil) and
Traveller (rapidly approaching 800k) have out-sold
Tangled Up (275k, and not selling nearly as much as Stapleton's is) by a lot.
If this category goes back to 5 nominees, I'm not sure which of the 6 I'd take out...
Female Vocalist of the Year:• Ashley Monroe OR Cam
• Carrie Underwood
• Kacey Musgraves
• Kelsea Ballerini
• Miranda Lambert
What? You mean to tell me that we finally have more than 5 options this year, and that 1-2 spots won't just be "token" nominations?! :O I think that's indeed the case. The way I see it, Carrie, Miranda, and Kacey are still locks, even though Miranda had a much quieter year (radio-wise) and Kacey barely charted anything. I also anticipate a big push for Kelsea Ballerini to score her first nomination here, given that she scored a #1 hit and has another song that's top 10-and-climbing. For the 5th spot I think it'll come down to a battle between Ashley Monroe and Cam. Ashley's
The Blade was a critically-acclaimed album that was released during the eligibility period, and while she had little radio success of her own, she
was featured on Blake Shelton's #1 hit "Lonely Tonight". Cam might be at a little bit of a disadvantage since
Untamed was released just
after the eligibility period, but that could be offset by a big Sony push and the fact that "Burning House" was such a huge hit -- quite a bit bigger than Kelsea's "Love Me Like You Mean It", when all metrics are considered. So I guess maybe it would be more apt for me to say that I see Kelsea, Ashley, and Cam battling it out for the last 2 spots. Jana Kramer and Reba would be 7th and 8th on my list.
Vocal Duo of the Year:• Big & Rich
• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
• Florida Georgia Line
• Maddie & Tae
This category is pretty easy to predict. Brothers Osborne, Dan + Shay, Florida Georgia Line, and Maddie & Tae would all be returning nominees from last year (Dan + Shay were even nominated 2 years ago already, and of course FGL has been nominated each of the last 3 years). Big & Rich, Thompson Square, and Love and Theft have each gotten multiple nominations in this category over the last few years, and since Big & Rich have easily had the biggest radio presence this past year, I went with them for the 5th spot.
Vocal Group of the Year:• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town
• Old Dominion
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band
I find this category fairly easy to predict as well. Lady A is on a bit of a hiatus right now, but they still had a pair of top 20 hits in 2015 and they're a recognizable name, so I expect them to score another nomination here before maybe taking a brief "break" from this category. Little Big Town and Zac Brown Band are locks, and I also expect to see a Rascal Flatts nomination for the 2nd year in a row (Big Machine has put out several "For Your ACM Consideration" ads for Rascal Flatts). And I've got Old Dominion in the 5th spot, just narrowly beating out A Thousand Horses (again, Old Dominion had more momentum heading into the voting period). Parmalee is another possibility but I think they'll come up short. The Eli Young Band had such a quiet year at radio so I can't see them being nominated, and then given the current 'state/funk' that The Band Perry is in...yeah, I don't think they'll be nominated here either.
Album of the Year:•
Kill The Lights - Luke Bryan
•
Mr. Misunderstood - Eric Church
•
Montevallo - Sam Hunt
•
Pageant Material - Kacey Musgraves
•
Traveller - Chris Stapleton
Back to a tougher category...I had to leave out several good and/or popular albums here, including Carrie's
Storyteller, ZBB's
Jekyll + Hyde, Thomas'
Tangled Up, and Ashley's
The Blade. My reasons for predicting the way I did here: Chris Stapleton's
Traveller is critically-acclaimed and it's a hot seller, and thus I think it's a lock to be nominated here. Sam Hunt's
Montevallo was released prior to the eligibility period, but because the bulk of its sales occurred after November 25, 2014, it is eligible. And I think that means that albums like Blake's
Bringing Back The Sunshine, Kenny's
The Big Revival, and FGL's
Anything Goes might also be eligible (though I don't think any of them are particularly likely to be nominated here). I don't think any of those albums are particularly good, but the ACM's have been known to nominate big names and big sellers in the past, regardless of their critical acclaim.
That said, there's also been some balance (between commercial appeal and critical acclaim) in this category in past years. Eric Church's last two albums were both nominated (
Chief won the award in 2013), and so I think
Mr. Misunderstood will score a nomination as well, although perhaps its surprise release just weeks before the eligibility period ended could hurt its chances? Kacey won this category 2 years ago, so even though
Pageant Material hasn't sold as much (as her debut) and hasn't produced any radio hits, I think she's pretty much a lock to be nominated again. Luke Bryan's last two albums were both nominated, and with
Kill The Lights approaching 1 million in sales, I think there's a pretty good chance it'll be nominated...although maybe, just maybe this is the year where a popular album that was a bit more derided gets left out in favor of some more critically-acclaimed albums. If that happens, I think Luke would be the one to get left out here (likely replaced by Carrie or maybe ZBB).
Another thing to consider: all 5 of my picks here were released by UMG. It's not impossible for that to happen, but it could mean that Carrie (Sony), ZBB (BMLG), Thomas (BMLG), or Ashley (Warner) is able to push out the "5th place" UMG album.
Single of the Year:• “Burning House” - Cam
• “Girl Crush” – Little Big Town
• “Say You Do” – Dierks Bentley
• “Take Your Time” – Sam Hunt
• “Talladega” – Eric Church
This category has featured nothing but #1 hits (Billboard and/or Mediabase) the last 3 years, and I expect the same this year, with "Girl Crush" being the only exception. Miranda's "Over You" won it 3 years ago, 2 years ago it was won by Miranda's "Mama's Broken Heart", and last year by Lee Brice's "I Don't Dance". I don't think Miranda will score any nominations here this year (neither "Little Red Wagon" nor "Smokin' and Drinkin'" was a big enough hit), and while Lee Brice did score a big hit with "Drinking Class", I don't think that one will make it into the final 5. I'm not completely confident that "Say You Do" and "Talladega" will get in, but I decided to go with them nonetheless.
Any way you look at it, this is a tough category to predict, and my guess(es) are as good as anybody else's. Just missing out: Carrie Underwood's "Something In The Water" and/or "Little Toy Guns" and/or "Smoke Break" (I expect her team to only push one of them, but I don't know if either of the 3 is quite strong enough to get in), Zac Brown Band's "Homegrown", Kenny Chesney's "Save It For A Rainy Day", Thomas Rhett's "Die A Happy Man", and Maddie & Tae's "Girl In A Country Song" (I believe GIACS is still eligible, as its chart peak was in December 2014).
Song of the Year:• "Diamond Rings & Old Barstools" - Tim McGraw
• "Girl Crush" - Little Big Town
• "Raise 'Em Up" - Keith Urban and Eric Church
• "Talladega" - Eric Church
• "Traveller" - Chris Stapleton
• "What We Ain't Got" - Jake Owen
This category is harder to predict. The nominees are usually songs that were both big hits and critically-acclaimed, but occasionally a lower-charting song will get nominated. In the last 3 years, every song nominated went #1 on BB or MB, with one exception: Kacey Musgraves' "Follow Your Arrow", which was nominated last year despite only peaking at #43 on Billboard.
Last year this category had 6 nominees, so I went with 6 again this year (though it'll probably be 5). With that said, I don't feel nearly as confident about my predictions in this category ("Girl Crush" is the only prediction I'm 99% confident about). Anyway, just like the Single of the Year category, Miranda Lambert songs have won this 2 out of the last 3 years ("Over You" in 2013, "Automatic" in 2015) and Lee Brice won it the other time ("I Drive Your Truck" in 2014). However, I don't think either of those two artists will feature this year. I was considering songs like Dierks Bentley's "Riser", Cam's "Burning House", and Ashley Campbell's "Remembering", but since they were still climbing the charts after November 25, I'm not sure if they're eligible (they'd be eligible at 2017's show).
According to the ACM voting critera, "Any song released reaching its highest charted position on Billboard’s Country Airplay (BDS) or Country Aircheck (Mediabase) country charts, during the eligibility period is eligible." Songs released prior to the eligibility period are eligible so long as their peak chart position came during the eligibility period. Basically, I'm taking this to mean that any song that was released OR peaked between November 27, 2014 and November 25, 2015 is eligible...
unless it was still climbing the charts after November 25th, in which case it would
not be eligible until the 2017 show. If I'm interpreting this correctly, that would theoretically leave out "Riser", "Burning House"*, and "Remembering" (*Even if Cam isn't eligible here, she is still eligible in the Single of the Year category, as "Burning House" was top 20 long before the cutoff).
Jake Owen doesn't have much momentum right now and normally I think a song that peaked at #14 wouldn't quite be able to score a nomination here, but perhaps voters will want to reward songwriter Travis Meadows here, especially if Dierks Bentley's "Riser" (another Meadows co-write) isn't eligible. Stapleton's "Traveller" was a single that didn't even chart (it narrowly missed cracking the Billboard top 60), but I still think it has a decent chance of picking up a nomination here. Tim McGraw doesn't ever seem to get any nominations but I decided to throw him a bone here. And then I went with both "Raise 'Em Up" and "Talladega" because they were hits that received a decent amount of acclaim.
Just missing out: Carrie Underwood's "Something In The Water" and/or "Little Toy Guns" (I'm assuming her team will only push one of them), Brantley Gilbert's "One Hell Of An Amen", Maddie & Tae's "Girl In A Country Song", Randy Houser's "Like A Cowboy", and Kenny Chesney's "Save It For A Rainy Day".
**
I never do any predictions for Video of the Year because there are always a bunch of videos that I never get around to watching.
Hope y'all enjoyed my really long post!