I guess I need to read the thread more thorough then.
No worries, I think it's buried a couple pages back. I think the first we heard about it was back in mid-January when ACM CEO Bob Romeo told Hits Daily Double in an interview (
read here) that they were eliminating the fan vote for both the Entertainer and New Artist categories.
Anyway, here are my predictions for who will and should win! :)
Entertainer of the Year• Eric Church (Should Win)
• Garth Brooks
• Jason Aldean
•
Luke Bryan (Will Win)
• Miranda Lambert
Luke's momentum is actually down a little bit as compared to the last 2-3 years, but who could possibly unseat him? Garth has had astronomical touring numbers (but I think everybody saw that coming from a mile away) but nothing on the radio all year. Jason's been a consistent chart-topper, but his overall momentum is down as well. And Miranda's momentum is down the most (she shouldn't even be nominated here). Eric had a strong year, and he has a great live show and released new music, but I don't think it'll be quite enough for him to beat Luke here.
Male Vocalist of the Year• Brett Eldredge
•
Chris Stapleton (Should Win and Will Win)
• Dierks Bentley
• Eric Church
• Jason Aldean
A part of me wonders if the ACM's might go with somebody other than Stapleton, simply so they can be different from the CMA's (I guarantee you that the ACM's are cursing their luck that Stapleton's breakthrough performance happened at the CMA's instead of at their show), but I still think Chris will win this. I think Brett Eldredge is too new (support from William Morris Endeavor is the main reason he got nominated), and Dierks Bentley's 2015 was during the back half of the
Riser era so I don't think he had a big enough year to win this one, either. Jason has won it the last 3 years in a row so he definitely can't be ruled out. Finally, Eric Church had a strong year but I see the ACM going with Stapleton. As I said, I don't think they'll be thrilled about the idea of coming after the CMA's where Stapleton had his breakthrough, but Stapleton's last few months have been too big to ignore.
Female Vocalist of the Year• Carrie Underwood (Should Win)
• Jana Kramer
• Kacey Musgraves
• Kelsea Ballerini
•
Miranda Lambert (Will Win)
Three words: William Morris Endeavor. As pointed out by
MJ's Big Blog, Miranda Lambert is represented by WME, and that's why she's likely to win this award for the
100th 7th year in a row. She had her quietest year since her pre-"The House That Built Me" days, but I'm still expecting her to win. Kacey had even less success at radio than Miranda did, and while I personally don't think that a lack of radio success should be held against anyone (Kacey's music is awesome and radio sucks for not playing it), radio success does influence the vote. Jana had a nice top 10 hit and Kelsea is certainly a promising up-and-comer, but neither of them had the year that Carrie had. Carrie's
Greatest Hits: Decade #1 album went Platinum and her latest album,
Storyteller, is already Gold, and of course she's had 3 big hits ("Something In The Water", "Little Toy Guns", and "Smoke Break") in the last year, with a 4th hit, "Heartbeat", blasting through the top 5 as we speak. It was truly a huge year for Carrie and it's a no-brainer that she should win this one, but I'm expecting WME to steal another trophy for Miranda. *rolls eyes*
Vocal Duo of the Year• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
•
Florida Georgia Line (Will Win)
• Joey + Rory
• Maddie & Tae (Should Win)
I don't think this category is as cut and dried as it was in the last few years, and that's because FGL's momentum is down a bit (as compared to their debut album era) whereas the other duos -- Brothers Osborne, Dan + Shay, and Maddie & Tae -- all saw their first breakthrough hits recently. Let me be clear: FGL is still the front-runner here, but an upset this year is more likely than it was in any of the last few years. Joey + Rory could pick up some sentimental votes but I can't see them pulling off the upset.
Vocal Group of the Year• Eli Young Band
•
Little Big Town (Should Win and Will Win)
• Old Dominion
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band
You can certainly make a statistics-based argument for the Zac Brown Band here: they had two #1 hits + "Beautiful Drug" is top 10 and climbing, and their latest album,
Jekyll + Hyde (released in April) has sold over 600,000 copies. That's more radio and commercial success than Little Big Town saw; LBT only had one hit, and its follow-up stalled just inside the top 40. Meanwhile, Little Big Town's
Pain Killer album has sold about 430,000 copies (a solid number, but below ZBB's sales total) and was released 6 months before ZBB's album was. On the other hand, Little Big Town has received the most critical acclaim, and "Girl Crush" was absolutely huge. However, the biggest reason why ZBB won't win this award, or hardly any awards from the country award shows? ZBB is outside of the politics and vote-trading that happens at both the ACM's and CMA's. I'm sure they'd love to win this award, even just once, but they don't benefit from bloc-voting the way that other artists do. ZBB is popular enough to score nominations, but they're likely to be continually shut out of the winners circle.
As for the others, Old Dominion is too new, Rascal Flatts is in the twilight phase of their career (and thus unlikely to win any more awards at these types of shows), and Eli Young Band had such a poor year that they shouldn't have even been nominated here.
New Male Vocalist of the Year• Brett Eldredge
• Chase Rice
• Chris Janson
•
Chris Stapleton (Should Win and Will Win)
• Thomas Rhett
If enough voters expect Chris Stapleton to win the Male Vocalist category, it's possible that they might vote for a momentum artist like Brett Eldredge or Thomas Rhett here instead, and I wouldn't rule out Chris Janson, either (he's definitely a dark horse, though). Stapleton, Eldredge, and Rhett are all backed by WME, so it's possible that WME might want to "spread the love" and push either Eldredge or Rhett here instead of Stapleton (again, especially if they're pretty confident that Stapleton will win Male Vocalist). However, with that said, I'm still thinking that Stapleton will win this.
New Female Vocalist of the Year•
Cam (Should Win and Will Win)
• Kelsea Ballerini
• Mickey Guyton
• RaeLynn
Let's be real here: this is a contest between Cam and Kelsea. Mickey has some critical acclaim, but unfortunately she hasn't made enough of an impact yet, and RaeLynn has completely fallen off the radar over the last several months. BUT, there IS a wild card factor: RaeLynn is repped by WME (and she's the only one repped by WME in this category, which could certainly be a big boost for her), whereas the other 3 are all repped by CAA (Creative Artists Agency). Kelsea certainly had a breakthrough year at radio, but Cam's "Burning House" was a far bigger hit than anything Kelsea released, and Cam has the critical acclaim, too. So I really think that the overall nominations tell the story here, and "Burning House" is nominated for Single of the Year, Song of the Year, and Video of the Year. Cam
should win this, and the voters would be fools if they don't award her here.
New Vocal Duo or Group of the Year• A Thousand Horses
• Brothers Osborne
•
Maddie & Tae (Should Win and Will Win)
• Old Dominion
• Parmalee
I view this as a 3-way race between Brothers Osborne, Maddie & Tae, and Old Dominion. Brothers Osborne has heavyweights WME and UMG Nashville in their corner, and they've also received a fair amount of critical acclaim. Maddie & Tae are repped by CAA and are of course backed by Big Machine, and they've also received a fair amount of critical acclaim. And Old Dominion is a hot new act whose members have written recent hits for other artists. I definitely think this will be a close category, and I predict Maddie & Tae by a slight margin.
Album of the Year•
I'm Comin' Over - Chris Young
•
Montevallo - Sam Hunt
•
Mr. Misunderstood - Eric Church
•
Tangled Up - Thomas Rhett
•
Traveller - Chris Stapleton (Should Win and Will Win)
Sam Hunt's
Montevallo has sold nearly 1 million copies and is a 2x Platinum album (thanks to the RIAA factoring in streaming data), but I expect it to be hurt by the fact that it's...barely country. Maybe some will give it the benefit of the doubt and call it "genre-bending" rather than "not country". In any case, I'm sure it'll get some votes, but I don't see the ACM championing it as the best
country album of the year. Chris Young and especially Thomas Rhett have seen their momentum surge over the last year, and they can thank that increasing momentum for their nominations here, as neither
I'm Comin' Over nor
Tangled Up is an Album of the Year-worthy nominee (and
Tangled Up isn't much of a country album, either). Eric Church released a high-quality album, and if it weren't for Stapleton's big breakthrough, I'd think that this would be Eric's to lose. But
Traveller is the clear front-runner here...it won at the CMA's and it won at the Grammy's, and the ACM's would be foolish to not follow suit. They might not like the fact that they'll be the last show to award
Traveller, but that's just the way it is.
Traveller is critically-acclaimed and is rapidly approaching 1 million sold...and it's not slowing down.
Single Record of the Year• "Burning House" - Cam (Should Win)
• "Buy Me A Boat" - Chris Janson
• "Die A Happy Man" - Thomas Rhett
•
"Girl Crush" - Little Big Town (Will Win)
• "I'm Comin' Over" - Chris Young
• "Take Your Time" - Sam Hunt
These were all big hits and you can make a case for any of them to win. Thomas Rhett's team can point to the fact that "Die A Happy Man" spent 6 weeks at #1 (even though it came after the eligibility period ended), Sam Hunt's team can point out that "Take Your Time" was a #1 hit that saw some moderate cross-over success and is certified 2x Platinum, Chris Young's "I'm Comin' Over" was a 3-week #1 hit that also went Platinum, and then both Cam and Chris Janson had #1 hits (on Mediabase) and saw their singles go Platinum as well.
Ideally, the ACM's would crown different winners in the Single and Song categories, but I think "Girl Crush" will win both. I can't really object because it was certainly a huge hit, but I'd like to see "Burning House" win Single and "Girl Crush" win Song.
Song of the Year• "Burning House" - Cam | Writers: Cam, Jeff Bhasker, and Tyler Johnson
•
"Girl Crush" - Little Big Town | Writers: Lori McKenna, Hillary Lindsey, and Liz Rose (Should Win and Will Win)
• "Nobody To Blame" - Chris Stapleton | Writers: Chris Stapleton, Barry Bales, and Ronnie Bowman
• "Raise 'Em Up" - Keith Urban featuring Eric Church | Writers: Tom Douglas, Jaren Johnston, and Jeffrey Steele
• "She Don't Love You" - Eric Paslay | Writers: Eric Paslay and Jennifer Wayne
"Burning House" and "Girl Crush" are double nominees in both the Single and Song categories. The other nominees here are certainly worthy, and given Stapleton's momentum, he certainly shouldn't be counted out. However, as I said above, I think "Girl Crush" will win both Single and Song of the Year, but it'd be nice if it 'only' won Song of the Year so that "Burning House" could win Single of the Year. "Girl Crush" winning Song of the Year makes a ton of sense, given that it's been praised for its well-written lyrics and the unique perspective that they present.
Vocal Event of the Year• "Hangover Tonight" - Gary Allan featuring Chris Stapleton
• "Home Alone Tonight" - Luke Bryan featuring Karen Fairchild
•
"Raise 'Em Up" - Keith Urban featuring Eric Church (Should Win and Will Win)
• "Smokin' and Drinkin'" - Miranda Lambert featuring Little Big Town
• "Wild Child" - Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter
"Raise 'Em Up" picked up a nomination for Song of the Year, so I think it's the clear front-runner here. Miranda has a chance (again, since she's repped by WME, and then being assisted by Little Big Town certainly doesn't hurt), but I think "Smokin' and Drinkin'" will be held back by the fact that it didn't make nearly as much of an impact as "Raise 'Em Up" did. "Hangover Tonight" was almost certainly nominated simply to pad Stapleton's number of nominations, "Home Alone Tonight" has been largely derided by music critics, and Kenny Chesney doesn't have enough clout to score a win with "Wild Child".
Video of the Year•
"Biscuits" - Kacey Musgraves (Should Win/Will Win)
• "Burning House" - Cam (Should Win)
• "Girl Crush" - Little Big Town
• "Mr. Misunderstood" - Eric Church (Should Win)
• "Riser" - Dierks Bentley (Should Win)
This one's anybody's guess, really. "Girl Crush" will likely win in other categories, and since it had a rather sub-par video, I'm hoping that voters will pass on it here. I'm gonna predict Kacey, but Cam, Dierks, and Eric put out great videos as well. The "Girl Crush" video isn't bad by any means but I think the other 4 nominated videos are quite a bit better.