1)
Luke Bryan will score 2 Billboard #1's (including "Home Alone Tonight") and another single will be a Mediabase-only #1.
Kill The Lights will only sell about half of what
Crash My Party sold.
He unfortunately did better than I thought he would, with 3 singles topping both Billboard and Mediabase. Kill The Lights hasn't even sold half of what Crash My Party has, though, so that's cool (Crash My Party has sold just over 2.6 million, while Kill The Lights is at 1.1 million)2)
Keith Urban will score his 19th #1 with "Break On Me", and his 8th studio album
Ripcord will be released in early March with first-week sales of around 80,000. About half of the songs will be a progression from the sound of
Fuse -- very electronic-soudning and not very country -- but the other half will be more in line with Keith's past material. The 3rd single will be another #1 for Keith.
Mostly correct. "Break On Me" did indeed become Keith's 19th #1, and 3rd single "Wasted Time" became his 20th. Ripcord was released on May 6 and debuted with 93,000 in sales and 106,000 in sales plus streaming (SPS). The album has a few songs that are more in tune with Keith's past material, namely "Gettin' In The Way", "Break On Me", "That Could Still Be Us", and "Worry 'Bout Nothin'", but most of the other songs are a progression in the electronic sound we heard on Fuse. I will say, though, that I didn't really see the success of "Blue Ain't Your Color" coming.3)
Charles Kelley won't score a hit, but UMG will graciously release his album anyway. It won't sell all that well, but reviews will be pretty decent.
Lady Antebellum will end their hiatus in November by debuting a brand new single at the CMA's.
Mostly right about Charles Kelley...but nothing from Lady A yet.4)
Dierks Bentley will release a critically-acclaimed single sometime in January. It will see a faster climb, similar to "Drunk On A Plane" rather than "Say You Do" and "Riser". Dierks' 8th studio album will be released on Friday, April 1 (no April Fools joke here), just two days prior to the ACM Awards. Dierks will be nominated for Song of the Year (for "Riser") and Male Vocalist of the Year, but he won't win either category. Instead, it'll be at the CMA's in November when Dierks wins his first major award (either for Single or Song of the Year, for one of the singles from his new album).
Uh...no. "Somewhere On A Beach" did climb quickly but it definitely isn't critically-acclaimed. The album came out in late May, not early April. I don't believe Dierks saw any ACM nominations, and while he did get nominated for Male Vocalist and Album of the Year at the CMA's in November, he didn't win either award. He did pick up a Vocal Event win for "Different For Girls", however.5)
Little Big Town will take a few months off after "Pain Killer" barely scrapes the top 40 (it'll be the final single from the album). They'll release a high-quality yet radio-friendly tune in either May or June; it'll be one of the biggest hits of the year and will peak just in time for the CMA's.
Darius Rucker will be quiet for the first part of the year before he announces that
Hootie & the Blowfish will release a country-pop album sometime in the fall.
Little Big Town's hiatus was longer than I predicted, but "Better Man" is definitely a high quality and radio-friendly tune, and even though it was released late in the year, it's definitely been one of the biggest hits of the year. Darius has stayed solo; no country radio push for Hootie & the Blowfish.6)
Jon Pardi's "Head Over Boots" will be his biggest hit; after 35+ weeks, it will find its way to #1. His sophomore album will sell around 40,000 copies in its debut week, and will be another strong traditional-sounding album.
Mickey Guyton's sophomore single will come out no later than March or April; she'll finally reach the top 20, but not until later in the year.
Correct about "Head Over Boots". California Sunrise is indeed quite traditional-sounding, but it sold 24,000 in its debut week, not 40,000. Mickey released "Heartbreak Song" in late spring but it stalled at #45.7)
Eric Church will receive Album of the Year nominations for
Mr. Misunderstood at both the ACM's and CMA's. The title track will be a top 5 hit, and it'll be followed by "Record Year" and "Round Here Buzz", both of which will go #1.
I was right about Mr. Misunderstood receiving Album of the Year nominations at both of the country shows, and it even won Album of the Year at the CMA's. The title track stalled at #15 but "Record Year" did go #1. "Kill A Word" was chosen for the 3rd single instead of "Round Here Buzz".8)
Eric Paslay's "High Class" will scrape the top 40 and then fizzle out in the mid 30's. It'll be his next single that gets him back to the top 20.
Brothers Osborne's "Stay A Little Longer" will top the charts in January; their album will receive strong reviews, and the 2nd single will be another top 10.
Kelleigh Bannen will finally get another single out sometime in the summer; it'll go top 30 and UMG will actually decide to release her album, largely based on the visibility of her blog.
Haley Georgia will release a highly-polarizing single that won't even chart.
I was right about "High Class" but wrong about Paslay's next single getting him back to the top 20, as "Angels In This Town" didn't even chart. Brothers Osborne scored a Mediabase-only #1 with "Stay A Little Longer"; their album was received quite well, but "21 Summer" missed the top 10, peaking at #24. Kelleigh Bannen released some music independently after parting ways with UMG and Haley Georgia hasn't released anything yet.9)
George Strait's "Cold Beer Conversation" will scrape the top 30 and then fade away (unfortunately). George's next single will peak around #48 (also unfortunately).
Alan Jackson will release "When God Paints" sometime in the late winter or early spring; it, too, will barely make a dent on the charts.
Toby Keith will push "Beautiful Stranger" into the top 50, but none of his other singles (if he releases any) will do much at all.
"Cold Beer Conversation" only made it to #33, and "Goin', Goin', Gone" hasn't charted and doesn't seem likely to. Alan Jackson released the phenomenal "The One You're Waiting On" but it really only got pushed to secondary radio. Toby's "Beautiful Stranger" didn't quite make the top 50 (it peaked at #52), but follow-up "A Few More Cowboys" managed to get to #47.10)
Sam Hunt will release one more single from
Montevallo, and it'll be another big #1 hit for him. The lead single from his sophomore album will be another genre-bending song, but it will incorporate both steel guitar and banjo. His sophomore album will be released in the fall; it will sell between 200,000 and 250,000 copies in its first week.
MCA released "Make You Miss Me" as the final single from Sam's debut album, and it was another big #1 for him. He hasn't moved on to his sophomore album yet, but I suspect new music will drop pretty early in 2017.11)
Kip Moore's "Running For You" will stall out in the 30's. MCA will release "Girl For The Summer" sometime in April and it'll become Kip's biggest hit since "Hey Pretty Girl".
David Nail's "Night's On Fire" will peak somewhere in the 25-30 range, thus delaying the release of his next album. David won't release another single until late summer/early fall.
Clare Dunn's next single will be "Cowboy Side Of You"; it will see a slow climb into the top 20, allowing for her debut album to be released toward the end of the year.
"Running For You" climbed all the way to #13 without ever making the Hot 100 "Girl For The Summer" is the hit that never was. David Nail took "Night's On Fire" to #14 and his album was released in July. MCA released Clare Dunn's "Tuxedo" instead and it failed to crack the top 50.12)
Shania Twain...I don't know. She'll finally release her album? I have no idea what to expect.
Billy Currington will release the 3rd single from
Summer Forever in February and it will peak in the teens after 30+ weeks on the chart.
Easton Corbin's "Yup" will stall out in the 30's, and Mercury will once again balk at the chance to release "Are You With Me".
Still nothing from Shania lol. Billy's 3rd single ("It Don't Hurt Like It Used To") did better than expected and went all the way to #1. Easton's "Yup" did stall at #35 and Mercury actually decided to release "Are You With Me", but unfortunately it only peaked at #41.13) Radio will continue to shun
Kacey Musgraves. She'll perform new single "Late To The Party" at the Grammy's; it'll manage to chart, but won't go top 40. Nevertheless,
Pageant Material will see a decent sales bump, bringing its total sales to 300k by the end of the year.
Scotty McCreery will finally get back to the top 20, but
Lauren Alaina will fail to crack the top 40.
Canaan Smith's "Hole In A Bottle" will peak just inside the top 20; Mercury won't release a 3rd single from his album.
Unfortunately, radio shunned Kacey just as I predicted, and Mercury didn't even bother releasing the radio-friendly "Late To The Party". Pageant Material has sold quite well -- it's at almost 180,000 -- but it's not the 300k I predicted. Scotty parted ways with Interscope/UMG Nashville and therefore he didn't come close to the top 20; rather, it was Lauren who saw some success, as she's currently top 20 and climbing. I was mostly right about Canaan Smith; "Hole In A Bottle" peaked at #23 (so not quite top 20), but Mercury didn't release a 3rd single, just as I predicted.14)
Chris Stapleton will win both Album of the Year and Best Country Album at the Grammy's. He'll perform "Sometimes I Cry", and it'll be one of the performances of the night.
Traveller will see 6-figure sales in the week after the Grammy's, and it'll return to #1 on the Billboard 200. "Nobody To Blame" will be a #1 hit at country radio; the next single will be either "Fire Away" or a re-release of the title track, and it'll be at least a top 20 hit.
I was right about some of this, but wrong about other parts. Traveller won Best Country Album at the Grammys but did not win in the all-genre Album of the Year category. Chris also didn't perform one of his own songs; he was part of a tribute performance instead. "Nobody To Blame" stalled at #10, and the follow-up was neither "Fire Away" nor "Traveller", but rather "Parachute". But hey, at least it's top 20 -- and climbing! (albeit slowly)15)
Carrie Underwood will finally get back to #1 on Billboard Country Airplay with "Heartbeat". "Church Bells" will be the 3rd single, followed by "Renegade Runaway". ("Choctaw County Affair" will be the album's final single, but that won't be released until 2017).
Brad Paisley will release a new album, but it'll only produce one top 10 in 2016.
I was right about "Heartbeat" taking Carrie back to #1 on Billboard, and also right about "Church Bells" coming 3rd. The 4th single was "Dirty Laundry", though. Brad's next album isn't due until early next year, and he wasn't able to score a top 10, as "Without A Fight" stalled at #16. "Today" has reached #14 and is still climbing, but it won't hit the top 10 until next year.16)
Jerrod Niemann's next single will get him back to the top 20, but it'll be the only hit from his next album.
Cam will win Best Country Solo Performance at the Grammy's for "Burning House". Her next single will be another big top 10 hit.
Logan Mize will release a new single in the spring and it'll take him into the top 20.
Jerrod Niemann and Logan Mize both parted ways with Sony. Jerrod's first single for Curb was "A Little More Love", which failed to make the top 20 (it peaked at #28). Cam did not win her Grammy nomination and unfortunately "Mayday" was not the big top 10 hit I was hoping for.17)
Kenny Chesney will come back with a new single early in the year, and it'll be his 5th #1 in a row. The album will be considered one of the best of his career.
Tyler Farr will see a slow climb into the top 15 with "Better In Boots", but its follow-up will barely scrape the top 40.
Chase Rice's next single won't be as much of a departure from
Ignite The Night as he's led us to believe so far, but his sophomore album will include at least a few fairly quality songs. The lead single will see another slow climb into the top 20.
"Noise" failed to go #1 for Kenny, and I don't think Chesney's new album is one of the best of his career, or at least that's what the consensus seems to be (I haven't even listened to it yet). Tyler's "Better In Boots" stalled at #26 and his new single has only just gotten started. Chase Rice has thankfully had even less success than I predicted, which wasn't much. "Whisper" barely charted (#56 peak) and "Everybody We Know Does" is struggling in the 40s; therefore, his next album has yet to be released.18)
Maren Morris will see breakout success with "My Church"; her debut album will receive glowing reviews.
Miranda Lambert will debut a lead single sometime in March, and her next album will be her best yet. I'll go out on a limb and say that
Garth Brooks and
Trisha Yearwood release a duets album; one single will manage to go top 30, but that's it.
Correct about Maren! As for Miranda, her lead single, "Vice", came out in July instead of March, and although I'm not sure if I can say that her new album is her very best, it's definitely right up there with her best work. Garth and Trisha left RCA and they technically did release an album together, but it was a Christmas album rather than a duets album, so it didn't produce any singles. Garth did return to the top 20 with a solo single, however. 19)
Chris Young will cruise to #1 with "Think Of You". Big Machine will release
Cassadee Pope's next single as soon as "Think Of You" hits #1, and Cassadee will manage to reach the top 20 towards the end of the year, allowing for the release of her sophomore album. Meanwhile, Chris will follow "Think Of You" with one of the more generic, safe songs from
I'm Comin' Over (rather than "Sober Saturday Night" or "I Know A Guy").
Correct about "Think Of You", but wrong about Chris' follow-up and about Cassadee's follow-up. RCA and Chris went with "Sober Saturday Night" rather than a generic, safe song. Meanwhile, Cassadee's "Summer" couldn't even make the top 50 so we're still waiting on her sophomore album.20)
Jake Owen's next single will be a shockingly good song that is the perfect blend of traditional country instrumentation and the modern country sound of the last few years. His next album will be released in the summer.
Old Dominion will score another #1 hit with "Snapback", but their momentum will tail off sharply after that when radio finally realizes that they're not all that popular. The
Pistol Annies will release a 10-song album in November and it'll receive a lot of acclaim but very little airplay.
I like "American Country Love Song", but I probably wouldn't say it's shockingly good, and it doesn't really have a traditional sound either. It's very contemporary country in sound. American Love was released in July so I got that part right. Old Dominion peaked at #2 with "Snapback" and then kept their momentum going with the #1 hit "Song For Another Time". The Pistol Annies didn't release any new music and I haven't heard any rumors that they'll release anything soon.21)
Blake Shelton will release a brand new, well-written single in January that will be pretty contemporary in sound, but with some steel guitar weaved in as well. The song will go #1; however, Blake's #1 streak will come to an end before 2016 is over.
Cole Swindell's "You Should Be Here" will soar to #1 and will go Platinum. His sophomore album will approach 100,000 copies sold in its 1st week.
Blake released "Came Here To Forget" in March instead of January, and while it went #1, it definitely wasn't a song that I would call "well-written". But I was correct about his #1 streak coming to an end! I was mostly right about Cole; "You Should Be Here" went #1 and got certified Platinum. Cole's sophomore album debuted with about 66,000 in sales, not the 100k I predicted.22)
Frankie Ballard will score another Gold #1 hit with "It All Started With A Beer".
Dan + Shay's next single (lead single to their sophomore album) will also get them back to #1. Warner Bros. will also see success with
Chris Janson, who will score his first Billboard #1 with "Power Of Positive Drinkin'".
I was completely wrong about Frankie Ballard and Chris Janson. Frankie's "It All Started With A Beer" stalled at #15 and isn't even halfway to 500k in sales. And Chris Janson's "Power Of Positive Drinkin'" stalled at #35. However, I was correct about Dan + Shay, as lead single "From The Ground Up" was a pretty big #1 hit for them.23)
Charlie Worsham's sophomore album will put him on the map. The lead single will be a #1 hit (I'm reaching here but I can dream, right?)
Ryan Kinder's "Tonight" will scrape the top 60; he'll come back with a new single in the spring and that one will finally get him into the top 20.
William Michael Morgan will fail to see much success, and
Jana Kramer will lose all momentum following a top 10 peak for "I Got The Boy".
Three wrongs and a right, lol. We're still waiting on new music from Charlie Worsham. Ryan Kinder did scrape the top 60 but it was another 12 months before we got "Close", which was only just released. And William Michael Morgan scored a big hit with the slow-climbing "I Met A Girl" (glad I was wrong about that!), although I will say that WMM's sales are very low so technically he hasn't been very successful on that front. And finally, I was absolutely right about Jana losing all momentum.24)
Brett Eldredge will score two more #1's.
Michael Ray will reach the top 15 with "Real Men Love Jesus", but his 3rd single won't do much.
Hunter Hayes will release a lead single in the summer; after a slow climb, it'll reach the top 30 toward the end of the year.
Brett scored two #1's on Mediabase, but only one #1 on Billboard ("Wanna Be That Song"), as "Drunk On Your Love" stalled at #2 on Billboard. Michael Ray just missed the top 15 with "Real Men Love Jesus" (it peaked at #17), and his 3rd single has had surprising success (to me, anyway) and looks to be a possible #1 hit in 2017. Hunter didn't release his lead single until October. The jury is still out on "Yesterday's Song", which is currently slowly moving through the 40s.25)
Tim McGraw's "Top Of The World" will fall short of #1. His next single, however, will be another #1 (and it'll also sell much better).
Rascal Flatts will score back-to-back top 10's with "I Like The Sound Of That" and the lead single to their 10th studio album, which will come out sometime in the late summer or early fall.
Jennifer Nettles will score her first top 20 as a solo artist, and she'll be nominated for female vocalist of the year at the CMA's.
Correct about Tim! "Top Of The World" missed #1 and sold very poorly, but his next single, "Humble and Kind", was a huge #1 and sold extremely well. Rascal Flatts scored a #1 with "I Like The Sound of That" but haven't moved on to their next album yet. No CMA nominations for Jennifer Nettles and no top 20 hits either, as "Unlove You" stalled at #26.26)
The Cadillac Three will finally score a top 30 hit, and Big Machine will release their debut album.
Thomas Rhett will have a big year sales-wise and at radio, but his momentum will take a big hit when he/Valory/Scott Borchetta choose a really bizarre single from
Tangled Up (which will receive some push-back from country radio).
Ha! I was pretty much dead-on about Rhett. He's had a big year but the label did release a bizarre single, "Vacation", that peaked very low on the charts. That said, I wouldn't say it really hurt his momentum. The Cadillac Three didn't chart anything at radio but Big Machine did release their album.27) The
Eli Young Band will finally get back to the top 20, but it won't be with "Your Place Or Mine". Still, their overall success will be pretty minimal.
Justin Moore's "You Look Like I Need A Drink" will reach #1 after about 30 weeks on the chart.
A Thousand Horses' "(This Ain't No) Drunk Dial" will be a top 20 hit, but the follow-up will struggle to make the top 40.
No radio success for Eli Young Band...in fact, they had less success than I predicted, which wasn't much. Justin Moore did go #1 but A Thousand Horses just missed the top 20 with "(This Ain't No) Drunk Dial". "Southernality" barely charted, so I was right about that one not making the top 40.28)
Florida Georgia Line will return to #1 with "Confession", and then will quickly release the lead single to their 3rd album. The album will be a mix of bro-country and songs that are a bit more 'grown-up' (like "Dirt" and "Confession"), and it'll sell between 150,000 and 175,000 copies in its 1st week.
The Band Perry will release music to the Pop and AC formats but will only see mild success at best.
Mostly right about FGL, mostly wrong about The Band Perry. I was right about "Confession" going #1, and while I haven't heard a full album from FGL yet (and I don't plan to), apparently their new one does have a couple of songs that are bit more 'grown-up'. Dig Your Roots only sold 126,000 in its opening week, however. The Band Perry moved from BMLG to Interscope/UMG Nashville only to flop even more than they were at BMLG. 29)
Zac Brown Band's "Beautiful Drug" will reach the top 10 but not #1. They'll release "Dress Blues", which will be a huge #1 for them.
Maddie & Tae will return to #1 with "Shut Up And Fish", and its follow-up (which will be the final single from
Start Here) will be approaching top 20 by the end of the year.
Drake White will finally score a top 20 hit and see the release of his debut album.
Wrong, wrong, and right. ZBB's "Beautiful Drug" actually went to #1 but they unfortunately didn't release "Dress Blues". Maddie & Tae couldn't replicate the success of "Girl In A Country Song" or even "Fly", and they're currently taking a break between albums. I was right about Drake White, however, as he made it to the top 20 and also saw the release of his debut album.30)
Steven Tyler's country album will be released without a hit single (it'll be his only album for Dot/BMLG). A few tracks will be receive some praise, but most of the album will be seen as watered-down rock music.
Hank Williams, Jr's Nash Icon album will do fairly well. Nash Icon will then release albums for
Martina McBride and
Ronnie Dunn (both in the spring). Each Nash Icon album will have 1-2 singles, but none of them will go top 40.
Mostly right...Steven Tyler didn't score any hits and his album wasn't really seen as straight-up country. Hank Williams, Jr. got one single into the 40s and his album was his highest-charting album on the Top Country Albums chart since 1990, so I'd say he did fairly well by his standards. Nash Icon did release albums for both Martina and Ronnie, but only Martina's came in the spring. Ronnie's was released in November. And one Nash Icon single did manage to make the top 40 this year: Ronnie's "Damn Drunk", which is currently in the 30s.31) Broken Bow will fail in their #1 push for
Jason Aldean's "Gonna Know We Were Here" (thwarted by Thomas Rhett and/or Cam, and also hurt by the holiday slowdown). Jason's next single will come out early in the year, followed by an album in the spring. The album will see Jason returning more toward the sound of
Wide Open and
My Kinda Party, and it'll produce two #1 hits for him. "Mind Reader" will be a top 15 hit for
Dustin Lynch; he'll release his 3rd album late in the year, and it'll be closer in sound to his debut.
Mostly right about Jason. "Gonna Know We Were Here" peaked at #2; it was blocked from the top by Thomas Rhett's "Die A Happy Man". "Lights Come On" came out in April, but the album came a little later than I predicted. I would definitely say it sounds a bit more like My Kinda Party rather than Old Boots, New Dirt. I was also correct about it producing two #1s, with those being "Lights Come On" and "A Little More Summertime". I was wrong about Dustin, however. He took "Mind Reader" all the way to #1. His 3rd album isn't out yet, and the only song we've heard so far, "Seein' Red", sounds nothing like his debut album.32)
Randy Houser's "We Went" will go top 10, but not #1. His next album will be quite impressive, though.
Parmalee's next single will struggle, and
Thompson Square will take most of the year off (what with Shawna being pregnant and all) before finally releasing a new single late in the year.
Lindsay Ell's "By The Way" will be a sleeper hit, but BBR acts
Jordan Rager, Jackie Lee, and
David Fanning will fail to do much of anything.
Totally wrong about Randy Houser, lol. "We Went" was a #1, but his album was anything but impressive. I found it to be a very poor album, in terms of song quality. I was right about Parmalee struggling, and sort of right about Thompson Square releasing a single late in the year (it was more of a mid-year release). I was wrong about Lindsay scoring a hit but right about Jordan Rager and Jackie Lee not seeing much success. David Fanning didn't see any success either, and he's no longer with BBRMG. 33)
Joe Nichols' "Freaks Like Me" will fail to make the top 40. His next single will do a little better (peaking around where "Hard To Be Cool" did), but Joe will fail to match the success he saw with "Sunny And 75" and "Yeah".
Craig Campbell's next single will spend most of the year crawling to a top 20 peak.
Chase Bryant's debut album will be released in the spring without much fanfare. "Little Bit Of You" will make the top 15 but not the top 10. Chase's 3rd single will be a slow-climber, finally cracking the top 20 toward the end of the year.
Both right and wrong about Joe Nichols. "Freaks Like Me" missed the top 40 but so did its follow-up, "Undone". I wasn't too far off about Craig Campbell, as he's currently crawling through the 20s and might eventually make the top 20, but if so it won't happen until 2017. Still no album from Chase Bryant, despite "Little Bit Of You" going top 5. His 3rd single is definitely a slow climber as it hasn't even cracked the top 40 yet.34)
Trace Adkins will make it to the top 30 with "Jesus and Jones", but none of his subsequent singles will do much of anything.
Granger Smith will reach #1 with "Backroad Song"; his 2nd single will be an even bigger hit and will be better-received by Pulse.
Lee Brice will struggle to a top 20 peak with "That Don't Sound Like You". He'll come back with a new single in late spring or early summer, and that will get him back to the top 10. Lee's next album will be released toward the end of the year.
Trace only reached #41 with "Jesus and Jones" and, like I predicted, his next single didn't do anything. Granger hit #1 with "Backroad Song", but "If The Boot Fits" hasn't been as big of a hit, and it's debatable if it's been better-received by Pulse. Lee labored to a #10 peak with "That Don't Sound Like You", but his only other single was a duet with Jerrod Niemann that stalled at #28. No new solo music and no new album from Lee yet.35) Curb will surprisingly release a new
Rodney Atkins album (a new Atkins single won't do much of anything at radio, though).
Mo Pitney will fail to make the top 40 with "Boy & A Girl Thing", but his album will
also come out. The 3rd single will get him into the top 30. Black River will release a new
Craig Morgan album, but it won't produce any top 40 hits.
No new music from Rodney Atkins, but Mo Pitney's album did come out, so I was right about that. Unfortunately, I was also right that Mo wouldn't get back to the top 40 with "Boy & A Girl Thing", and I was unfortunately wrong that a 3rd Pitney single would get him to the top 30. I was correct about all things Craig Morgan; Black River released his new album in June but he failed to score any top 40 hits. 36)
Kelsea Ballerini will score another #1 hit with "Dibs". She'll release one more single from
The First Time, and it will be another top 10 hit.
Kellie Pickler and
John King won't release albums, however. Big Loud Records will score a break-out cross-over hit with
Chris Lane's "Fix", but Chris' follow-up will struggle, mostly because artists like Chris Stapleton, Jon Pardi, Maren Morris, Brothers Osborne, etc. will steal enough of the spotlight and bring about a resurgence in the popularity of traditional-leaning country music.
Kelsea went #1 with both "Dibs" and "Peter Pan". I was right about Kellie Pickler and John King not releasing albums. Chris Lane scored a country radio hit with "Fix", but it definitely didn't cross-over, and I wouldn't even say that he's been a true breakout at country radio, either.37) Streamsound Records will be the next indie label to fold. Cold River will keep going but will have only minimal success with their new artists. We'll finally get the full story on what happened with
Katie Armiger (and this won't help Cold River in radio's eyes). Thirty Tigers Records will score a few top 40 singles, and at least one of them will climb into the top 20.
Love and Theft will release a new album that will really showcase their harmonies; it'll feature a good blend of traditional country instruments and contemporary country sounds.
Correct about Streamsound and Cold River. Streamsound shuttered its radio promotion department, and Cold River has had minimal success at best with Drew Baldridge. We also learned a little more about the Katie Armiger vs. Cold River situation. Thirty Tigers was unable to find radio success and shuttered their promotion department, determining that it doesn't really fit within their business model. No new album from Love and Theft.38)
Big & Rich will take "Lovin' Lately" into the top 20.
Brandy Clark and
Sturgill Simpson will release stunningly good albums (rave reviews and all that), but because neither of them has a blow-you-away voice like Stapleton, neither will see much success at radio. Still, each of their albums will sell more than 200,000 copies.
Right about Big & Rich, as "Lovin' Lately" peaked at #14. I was also correct about Brandy and Sturgill releasing critically-acclaimed albums but not having any success at country radio. Sturgill's album has sold well...it's not up to the 200k I predicted, but it's going to get there, as it's at 150k now and he has SNL and the Grammys coming up in early 2017. Brandy hasn't seen any commercial success, however.39) The big breakthrough stories of the year will be:
Jon Pardi, Brothers Osborne, Chris Stapleton, Cam, Maren Morris, Chris Janson, Charlie Worsham, Granger Smith, and
Chris Lane.
Chris Stapleton, Maren Morris, and Jon Pardi have definitely been "big breakthrough stories". Brothers Osborne has had some success..."21 Summer" wasn't the hit that it should have been, but they have received critical acclaim and did win the CMA Award for Duo of the Year, in somewhat of an upset over Florida Georgia Line. Unfortunately, Cam and Chris Janson have really fallen off after the successes of "Burning House" and "Buy Me A Boat", respectively. Charlie Worsham didn't release any music, and while Granger Smith and Chris Lane have both seen some radio success, neither of them has seen much commercial success, so I definitely don't consider them as "breakthrough stories".40) Already-established artists that will see a surge in momentum:
Dierks Bentley, Kip Moore, Chris Young, Cole Swindell, Brantley Gilbert, Thomas Rhett, Justin Moore, Maddie & Tae, Randy Houser, and
Kelsea Ballerini.
I feel like I was wrong on about two-thirds of these artists, lol. I do think Dierks has a bit more momentum at radio, and I definitely think Cole Swindell, Thomas Rhett, and Kelsea Ballerini have a lot of momentum after a big 2016 for each of them. However, Kip Moore doesn't have much momentum and Brantley Gilbert isn't doing the best right now either. Justin Moore got back to #1 but he has almost no momentum right now, and both Maddie & Tae and Randy Houser actually lost a lot of momentum in 2016. Chris Young is kind of in the middle..."Think Of You" was a big hit and "Sober Saturday Night" should go top 10 if not #1, but he's still just kind of in the middle of the pack. The sales for "Sober Saturday Night" have been mediocre at best.41) Already-established artists who will see a decline in momentum:
Luke Bryan, Darius Rucker, Billy Currington, Easton Corbin, Brad Paisley, Tyler Farr, Blake Shelton, The Band Perry, Jason Aldean, Joe Nichols, and
Craig Morgan (Luke, Jason, and Blake will all be plenty big, but I feel that all 3 are past their commercial peak).
I feel like I was mostly right about these ones, with the only exceptions being Billy Currington and maybe Luke Bryan, but even with those guys you can argue that their momentum is down at least a little bit. Luke continues to dominate on radio, but "Move" was not a very big hit, and the total sales for Kill The Lights are only about 40% of the total sales for Crash My Party. Billy rebounded with a big radio hit in "It Don't Hurt Like It Used To", which was also a strong seller, but he's still lagging badly in album sales. All the others definitely saw a decline in momentum...Darius Rucker is in the midst of his slowest chart climb yet, Easton Corbin saw both of his 2016 singles miss the top 30, Brad Paisley failed to reach the top 10, Blake Shelton's #1 streak came to an end, The Band Perry is still off in weirdo/flop land, and Joe Nichols and Craig Morgan both failed to make the top 40. Jason Aldean did score a pair of #1 hits, but both "Lights Come On" and "A Little More Summertime" were lesser hits than most of Jason's #1 hits. Basically, Jason had exactly the year I predicted -- he was successful, but just not as successful as he was in prior years. Therefore, his momentum is down, at least a little bit.42) Artists that will get dropped by their record labels:
Haley Georgia (EMI),
Steven Lee Olsen (Columbia),
Gloriana (Warner Bros),
The Railers (Warner Bros),
Danielle Bradbery (Big Machine),
RaeLynn (Valory),
Jackie Lee (Broken Bow),
Craig Morgan (Black River), and
John King (Black River).
I was only correct on only 3 of the 9 here, with those being Steven Lee Olsen, Gloriana, and RaeLynn. Steven Lee Olsen was quietly let go by Sony, Gloriana was quietly let go by Warner Bros., and RaeLynn was quietly let go by BMLG. Haley Georgia, The Railers, Danielle Bradbery, Jackie Lee, Craig Morgan, and John King all stayed with their respective labels; however, only Jackie and Craig released music in 2016, and neither saw any success.43)
Casey James, Greg Bates, JT Hodges, Leah Turner, and
The Swon Brothers will all be signed by new labels.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. Lol.