Billboard Hot 100: 04/29/2017

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Damn. I just checked kworb's daily radio update and Shape of You simply refuses to peak.

[GPMB]

I hope That's What I Like can become the All of Me to Shape of You's Happy.

also Redbone is now in the top 40 of iTunes. WE DID IT

[kcdawg13]

I've never wanted a song to go #1 as bad as That's What I Like. It needs to. It would be a terrible fate if that song gets stuck at #2. I will cry for the rest of my life.

[Leo ✔]

I hope That's What I Like gets blocked :sip2:

[fhas]

Apr 14, 2017 13:05:37 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I've never wanted a song to go #1 as bad as That's What I Like. It needs to. It would be a terrible fate if that song gets stuck at #2. I will cry for the rest of my life.

I also hope that TWIL reaches #1, I love that song! It's Bruno's best song imo. But it would be so incredibe if HUMBLE. is #1 next week.



Best case scenario:

April 29th: #1 Shape Of You (It's impossible to be dethroned this week)

May 6th: #1 HUMBLE. (55M streams, 100K sales, 30M AI should be enough)

May 13th: #1 That's What I Like

[Envoirment]

Bruno's overtaken Ed on youtube streaming in today's daily update. Bruno's spotify streams are very close to Ed's (300k difference in last 7 day stream total) and he's slowly but surely gaining on him. Bruno's also back at #1 on iTunes and has an ~18% lead there when you combine Ed's two versions. Bruno's been closing the airplay gap all the time too. I think Bruno will get to #1 on the Hot 100 - maybe 2-3 weeks even. Kendrick will likely get to #1 week of his album release though with his amazing streaming numbers (and he's not far behind Bruno on iTunes).

[Gary]

Harry Styles' 'Sign of the Times' Aiming for Top Five Billboard Hot 100 Debut


The track is set to start as the week's top-selling song.

Harry Styles' debut solo single "Sign of the Times" looks set to launch in the top five of next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated April 29).

Following its first full week of activity, industry forecasters suggest that "Sign," released at 3 a.m. ET Friday, April 7, could sell more than 135,000 downloads in the tracking week ending April 13. When finalized streaming (likely in the range of 15 million U.S. streams in the week ending April 13) and radio airplay (approximately 20 million in all-format audience in the week ending April 16) are added to the mix, the track should debut in the chart's top five. (The Hot 100 blends U.S. streaming, airplay and sales data.)
"Sign" should easily arrive as the week's top-selling song.

Sign" has already launched at No. 1 on the Billboard + Twitter Top Tracks chart (dated April 22) and No. 29 on the Pop Songs airplay chart, with radio programmers offering praise for its moody production and lyrics.
"Sign" will mark Styles' first solo appearance on the Hot 100, following 29 entries as part of One Direction. The boy band has scored six Hot 100 top 10s, charting highest with "Best Song Ever," which reached No. 2 in 2013. In February 2016, following his exit from the group, Zayn became the first 1D member (past or present) to chart solo on the Hot 100, soaring in at No. 1 with "Pillowtalk." The act's Louis Tomlinson reached No. 52 in December with his first Hot 100 entry, "Just Hold On" (with Steve Aoki), and Niall Horan rose to No. 20 in January with his solo debut, "This Town."


"Sign" previews Styles' self-titled first solo album, due May 12 on Columbia Records. Styles is expected to perform the single and a second song from the set on NBC's Saturday Night Live this weekend.
Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com Monday (April 17), with all charts updating online Tuesday.

[.It'sGriffin]

People once believed that SOTT will enter on #1...
Now they think that it'll be in the top 5...
I predict that it'll be in the 4-6 area.

[Gary]

Not thinking #6 since Billboard already indicated top 5 is pretty much a lock

[WILL]

Seeing BB predict that it will sell 135K over the whole week is a bit baffling considering PopCrave tweeted out that it had sold 140K or 144K (I forget) in its first 6 hours. Looks like they were very likely wrong.

[Deleted]

Apr 14, 2017 18:54:25 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

People once believed that SOTT will enter on #1...
Now they think that it'll be in the top 5...
I predict that it'll be in the 4-6 area.

If it gets 15 million streaming it will def be #4

[kcdawg13]

SOTT is gonna debut high and drop like a rock. It's bleeding on sales, and Kendrick basically dragged away all of its streaming, so now it's left with airplay.

Humble is basically locked for #1 next week (May 6th), though Bruno is holding very well. Ed recently was overthrown on sales, and TWIL has better streaming and is going to overtake it on airplay in one or two weeks.

May 6th and 13th are gonna be crazy weeks to watch.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

HUMBLE. got over 4 million Spotify streams in the US yesterday.. Jesus Christ.

[YotamTS]

Final prediction by simmnfierzig on ATRL:

1 Shape Of You 540 (=)
2 That's What I Like 479 (+1)
3 Humble 365 (-1)
4 Sign Of The Times 334 (debut)
5 iSpy 316 (-1)
6 Something Just Like This 314 (-1)
7 Mask Off 284 (+4)
8 Body Like A Back Road 239 (-2)
9 XO Tour Lif3 235 (+7)
10 Paris 226 (-1)
11 It Ain't Me 218 (+2)
12 Rockabye 215 (-2)
13 Stay 211 (+1)
14 Issues 210 (+8)
15 Tunnel Vision 201 (-7)
16 I Feel It Coming 194 (-9)
17 Say You Won't Let Go 194 (=)
18 Bad And Boujee 188 (-6)
19 Location 181 (+5)
20 Congratulations 181 (+5)

SPOILER: Click to show

{#21-#100}
21 Closer 178 (=)
22 Bounce Back 177 (-2)
23 Passionfruit 174 (=)
24 Cold 173 (+4)
25 Love On The Brain 168 (-7)
26 Chained To The Rhythm 168 (-7)
27 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 165 (-12)
28 Swang 154 (+1)
29 24k Magic 144 (-2)
30 T-Shirt 143 (-4)
31 Rolex 135 (+8)
32 Slide 129 (+8)
33 Can't Stop The Feeling 127 (-1)
34 Scars To Your Beautiful 126 (-4)
35 Look At Me! 124 (-1)
36 Mercy 122 (-3)
37 Fake Love 120 (-6)
38 Starboy 118 (-1)
39 Portland 114 (-3)
40 Down 112 (-5)
41 Swalla 109 (+11)
42 In Case You Didn't Know 108 (+2)
43 Dirt On My Boots 105 (-1)
44 Goosebumps 104 (-1)
45 Both 103 (+1)
46 Believer 103 (+2)
47 Despacito 102 (+2)
48 Don't Wanna Know 98 (-3)
49 Hurricane 97 (+8)
50 Redbone 96 (+6)
51 Million Reasons 95 (-10)
52 Any Ol Barstool 88 (+2)
53 Now Or Never 87 (debut)
54 Green Light 87 (+1)
55 Party 87 (-4)
56 The Fighter 87 (-18)
57 Heavy 78 (+4)
58 Hometown Girl 77 (+7)
59 Castle On The Hill 76 (+10)
60 Shining 76 (+4)
61 How Far I'll Go Auli'l 72 (+2)
62 Gyalchester 68 (=)
63 Moves 66 (+11)
64 Call On Me 66 (+18)
65 Fast 66 (-7)
66 Black 66 (=)
67 God, Your Mama And Me 65 (+4)
68 Selfish 64 (+9)
69 Losin Control 64 (+10)
70 Yeah Boy 64 (+6)
71 Play That Song 64 (+1)
72 The Weekend 63 (+8)
73 Deja Vu 62 (=)
74 Drowning 61 (+20)
75 Free Smoke 60 (-7)
76 Road Less Traveled 60 (-9)
77 First Day Out 59 (+11)
78 Scared To Be Lonely 56 (+12)
79 Draco 56 (+8)
80 No Frauds 56 (+4)
81 You Look Good 55 (-21)
82 The One 55 (+9)
83 Craving You 55 (-30)
84 Prblms 54 (+13)
85 Everybody 54 (-26)
86 Blem 54 (-8)
87 Think A Little Less 51 (-1)
88 Subeme La Radio 51 (-7)
89 How Not To 51 (+9)
90 Bar At The End Of The World 50 (debut)
91 Teenage Fever 50 (-8)
92 You're Welcome 49 (+7)
93 Unforgettable 48 (debut)
94 How Far I'll Go Alessia 47 (-2)
95 Flatliner 44 (debut)
96 Chantaje 44 (re-entry)
97 At My Best 44 (re.entry)
98 Cake 44 (debut)
99 Speak To A Girl 44 (-29)
100 Good Drank 43 (-5)

Others
Die With You 41
Symphony 37
Heatstroke 33
No Promises 27

[.It'sGriffin]

Now, let the fun stuff begin!
29th:
01: HUMBLE.
02: That's What I Like
03: Shape Of You
04: iSpy
05: Something Just Like This
06: DNA.
07: Mask Off
08: XO Tour Llif3
09: Sign Of The Times (unless it'll flop even harder)
10: It Ain't Me
11: Stay
12: Issues
13: Flop Like A Back Road
14: Paris
15: Say You Won't Let Go

[Sambalada]

Apr 15, 2017 3:18:40 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

HUMBLE. got over 4 million Spotify streams in the US yesterday.. Jesus Christ.

JESUS indeed! Slay me some Kendrick :'(

[.It'sGriffin]

Apr 15, 2017 7:29:01 GMT -5 @holden said:

HOLY CRAP AT THAT FIRST DAY SPOTIFY NUMBER!!!
If those streams hold up by the end of the week, here's my early crazy predictions:
Kendrick entry #1:
1. HUMBLE. 62,000 (75-80M streaming, 60M On-demand across all platforms)
2. Shape Of You 53,000
3. TWIL 48,500
Kendrick entry #2:
4. DNA. 41,000 (55M streaming)
5. ISPY 32,000
6. SOMETHING JUST LIKE THIS 31,000
Kendrick entry #3:
7. LOYALTY. 28,500 (40M streaming)
Kendrick entry #4:
8. ELEMENT. 28,000 (42M streaming but with much less sale for whatever reason)
9. STAY 27,500 (iTunes discount)
10-11. XO Tour Llif3 26,000
10-11. MASK OFF 26,000
Kendrick entry #5
--- 12. YAH. 25,000 (39M streaming)
13. IT AIN'T ME 24,000
14. BODY LIKE A BACK ROAD 23,500

Kendrick entry #6-10:
15-20. BLOOD. 23,000
15-20. FEEL. 22,000
15-20. LOVE. 22,000
15-20. PRIDE. 21,000
15-20. XXX. 20,500

Kendrick entry #11-14:
23-27. LUST. 19,000
35-40. FEAR. 16,000
35-40. DUCKWORTH. 16,000
41-45. GOD. 15,000

Holly sh*t.. I did not check Spotify since Wednesday. We thought that Ed's achievement was impressive.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

For Humble, in addition to the 4 million in Spotify for yesterday, it also got another 4 million, but that's worldwide in YouTube. Plus, Kendrick is leading Ed Sheeran by almost 3:1 in Spotify streams worldwide. DAMN. indeed!

[Harx]

Haha and just 3 months ago debuting 2 songs in the top 10 was a milestone. We are moving ahead so fast. Soon 10 debuts in the entire top 10 will be a normal thing...

[imbondz]

Apr 15, 2017 8:44:05 GMT -5 Harx said:

Haha and just 3 months ago debuting 2 songs in the top 10 was a milestone. We are moving ahead so fast. Soon 10 debuts in the entire top 10 will be a normal thing...

Hope not, tho I can see it happening.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Apr 15, 2017 8:44:05 GMT -5 Harx said:

Haha and just 3 months ago debuting 2 songs in the top 10 was a milestone. We are moving ahead so fast. Soon 10 debuts in the entire top 10 will be a normal thing...

The latter is a bit of a stretch. In the UK, songs from ÷ were "only" able to get 9 out the Top 10, with 7 of them debuts. That's on a chart that considers only sales and streaming for the songs charting. The reason it's been hard to get 2 songs debuting in the Top 10 of the Hot 100 is that radio is taken into account and serves as a tempering factor that largely prevents Top 10 debuts overall, plus the adjustment in the Hot 100 formula reduced the influence of streaming. But 3 Top 10s debut from a single album could definitely occur soon.

That said, DNA. looks like a sure Top 10 debut, while LOYALTY. and ELEMENT. seem to have outside shots that would largely depend on their streaming numbers.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

In case anybody's wondering why Green Light is not doing as well as one would expect in radio airplay, I found this little article that gives some insight as to why:

Lorde’s “Green Light” Receives Weak Pop Radio Callout Scores

The latest pop radio callout report is not kind to Lorde's "Green Light."

It does not appear listeners will be unhappy with the news that Lorde’s “Green Light” is falling down the pop radio airplay chart.

Per the latest Mediabase/Critical Mass Media callout report, it is receiving a comparatively poor response from pop radio audiences.

The report, which is based on a survey of pop listeners, reveals that “Green Light” received a positive reaction from 47.3% of listeners, a negative reaction from 34.4% of listeners and thus a “net positive” score of just 12.9%.

Only 7.0%, moreover, identified “Green Light” as a “favorite.”

Of the 23 songs featured in this week’s report, it has the worst “net positive,” negative and favorite scores. It has the second-lowest positive score, besting only the 45.4% achieved by Ed Sheeran’s “Castle On The Hill.”

“Green Light” is the lead single from Lorde’s forthcoming sophomore album “Melodrama.” It has received strong marks from critics, but the combination of poor callout scores and tepid sales and streaming figures reveal that it is simply not resonating with the masses.

It has accordingly hit a wall at mainstream radio. Thus far, “Green Light” is down 17% in pop radio airplay and 11% in hot adult contemporary airplay this week.

While it is actually up 7% at alternative this week, it may still fall out of the format’s Top 10.

[DistrictTwelve]

I thought Kendrick would drop out of the top five. And he isnt, plus I also didn't even know he was going to release an album. Rip me. 

[Enigma.]

Humble aside (that's a smash hit already) why do you think Kendrick will do any better than Drake on Hot 100 with those streaming #'s? Drake got two top tens, I expect Kendrick do the same the other being DNA.

[.It'sGriffin]

Apr 15, 2017 10:07:02 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Humble aside (that's a smash hit already) why do you think Kendrick will do any better than Drake on Hot 100 with those streaming #'s? Drake got two top tens, I expect Kendrick do the same the other being DNA.

Currently, the only stable songs are SOY, TWIL, HUMBLE., iSpy and SJLT, the top 5. Everything else is in a position in which it can fall off instantly. The top 10 is just less stable now.

[Harx]

Is the top 10 reveal going to be delayed because of Easter?

[Deleted]

Apr 15, 2017 11:15:46 GMT -5 Harx said:

Is the top 10 reveal going to be delayed because of Easter?

Shouldn't be, since Easter is on Sunday, and it isn't "observed" on a business day.  Monday holidays (or observed holidays on a Monday) are usually the only reasons for delay from my experience.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^ According to that Sign of the Times Chart Beat heading for a Top 5 Hot 100 debut article, it says "Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com Monday (April 17), with all charts updating online Tuesday."

[Deleted]

Apr 14, 2017 19:37:04 GMT -5 WILL said:

Seeing BB predict that it will sell 135K over the whole week is a bit baffling considering PopCrave tweeted out that it had sold 140K or 144K (I forget) in its first 6 hours. Looks like they were very likely wrong.

Fake news is real! :kii:  Anyone can say what they want out there, you know? 

If nothing else, this was a good reminder that it's probably best to hold off on sales projections until at least 2-3 days in.  Kworb is a relatively decent indicator, and even he makes adjustments regularly as the days pass by.  The first day or two can be so misleading - obviously.

[fhas]

Apr 15, 2017 3:46:06 GMT -5 YotamTS said:

Final prediction by simmnfierzig on ATRL:

1 Shape Of You 540 (=)
2 That's What I Like 479 (+1)
3 Humble 365 (-1)
4 Sign Of The Times 334 (debut)
5 iSpy 316 (-1)
6 Something Just Like This 314 (-1)
7 Mask Off 284 (+4)
8 Body Like A Back Road 239 (-2)
9 XO Tour Lif3 235 (+7)
10 Paris 226 (-1)
11 It Ain't Me 218 (+2)
12 Rockabye 215 (-2)
13 Stay 211 (+1)
14 Issues 210 (+8)
15 Tunnel Vision 201 (-7)
16 I Feel It Coming 194 (-9)
17 Say You Won't Let Go 194 (=)
18 Bad And Boujee 188 (-6)
19 Location 181 (+5)
20 Congratulations 181 (+5)

SPOILER: Click to show

{#21-#100}
21 Closer 178 (=)
22 Bounce Back 177 (-2)
23 Passionfruit 174 (=)
24 Cold 173 (+4)
25 Love On The Brain 168 (-7)
26 Chained To The Rhythm 168 (-7)
27 I Don't Wanna Live Forever 165 (-12)
28 Swang 154 (+1)
29 24k Magic 144 (-2)
30 T-Shirt 143 (-4)
31 Rolex 135 (+8)
32 Slide 129 (+8)
33 Can't Stop The Feeling 127 (-1)
34 Scars To Your Beautiful 126 (-4)
35 Look At Me! 124 (-1)
36 Mercy 122 (-3)
37 Fake Love 120 (-6)
38 Starboy 118 (-1)
39 Portland 114 (-3)
40 Down 112 (-5)
41 Swalla 109 (+11)
42 In Case You Didn't Know 108 (+2)
43 Dirt On My Boots 105 (-1)
44 Goosebumps 104 (-1)
45 Both 103 (+1)
46 Believer 103 (+2)
47 Despacito 102 (+2)
48 Don't Wanna Know 98 (-3)
49 Hurricane 97 (+8)
50 Redbone 96 (+6)
51 Million Reasons 95 (-10)
52 Any Ol Barstool 88 (+2)
53 Now Or Never 87 (debut)
54 Green Light 87 (+1)
55 Party 87 (-4)
56 The Fighter 87 (-18)
57 Heavy 78 (+4)
58 Hometown Girl 77 (+7)
59 Castle On The Hill 76 (+10)
60 Shining 76 (+4)
61 How Far I'll Go Auli'l 72 (+2)
62 Gyalchester 68 (=)
63 Moves 66 (+11)
64 Call On Me 66 (+18)
65 Fast 66 (-7)
66 Black 66 (=)
67 God, Your Mama And Me 65 (+4)
68 Selfish 64 (+9)
69 Losin Control 64 (+10)
70 Yeah Boy 64 (+6)
71 Play That Song 64 (+1)
72 The Weekend 63 (+8)
73 Deja Vu 62 (=)
74 Drowning 61 (+20)
75 Free Smoke 60 (-7)
76 Road Less Traveled 60 (-9)
77 First Day Out 59 (+11)
78 Scared To Be Lonely 56 (+12)
79 Draco 56 (+8)
80 No Frauds 56 (+4)
81 You Look Good 55 (-21)
82 The One 55 (+9)
83 Craving You 55 (-30)
84 Prblms 54 (+13)
85 Everybody 54 (-26)
86 Blem 54 (-8)
87 Think A Little Less 51 (-1)
88 Subeme La Radio 51 (-7)
89 How Not To 51 (+9)
90 Bar At The End Of The World 50 (debut)
91 Teenage Fever 50 (-8)
92 You're Welcome 49 (+7)
93 Unforgettable 48 (debut)
94 How Far I'll Go Alessia 47 (-2)
95 Flatliner 44 (debut)
96 Chantaje 44 (re-entry)
97 At My Best 44 (re.entry)
98 Cake 44 (debut)
99 Speak To A Girl 44 (-29)
100 Good Drank 43 (-5)

Others
Die With You 41
Symphony 37
Heatstroke 33
No Promises 27

Last week: SOY 572 vs. 464 TWIL
This week: SOY 540 vs. 479 TWIL
Next week: SOY 508 vs. 494 TWIL (If SOY loses 32 points again and TWIL gains 15)

Shape of You is falling so slowly. Kendrick save us!