Billboard Hot 100: 07/22/2017

[Deleted]

Only starting this because...

kworb.net/airadio/

1 +1 LUIS FONSI - Despacito f/Daddy Yankee - 184.626 (+1.770)
2 -1 BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like - 183.298 (-1.833)
3 = ED SHEERAN - Shape Of You - 155.491 (-1.180)
4 = ZEDD & ALESSIA CARA - Stay - 154.569 (-0.314)
5 = THE CHAINSMOKERS & COLDPLAY - Something Just Like This - 141.645 (-0.767)
6 = DJ KHALED - I'm The One f/Bieber/Quavo... - 138.993 (+0.017)****
7 = KYGO X SELENA GOMEZ - It Ain't Me - 118.047 (-1.553)
8 = IMAGINE DRAGONS - Believer - 108.952 (-0.626)
9 = JAMES ARTHUR - Say You Won't Let Go - 107.046 (-1.556)
10 +1 SAM HUNT - Body Like A Back Road - 103.542 (+1.251)
11 -1 ED SHEERAN - Castle On The Hill - 103.163 (+0.340)
12 +1 SHAWN MENDES - There's Nothing Holdin' Me... - 99.216 (+2.681)
13 -1 JULIA MICHAELS - Issues - 97.370 (-0.517)
14 = CHILDISH GAMBINO - Redbone - 95.068 (+0.809)
15 = HALSEY - Now Or Never - 91.913 (+1.689)
16 = KENDRICK LAMAR - Humble. 88.094 (-0.509)
17 = DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER
Wild Thoughts - 81.705 (+4.299)****
18 = FRENCH MONTANA - Unforgettable f/Swae Lee - 67.915 (+0.673)
19 = BLAKE SHELTON - Every Time I Hear That Song - 65.807 (-0.033)
20 +1 CHARLIE PUTH - Attention - 63.448 (+2.206)

****Dropped/Added format

[85la]

I wonder what the points difference is between Despacito and WT now and how long it might take for WT to take over. Pretty soon Despacito will stabilize and then fall in airplay and it's also falling in sales and streaming, while WT is continuing to make fast gains in radio and streaming and its sales should stabilize and maybe even rise back up. I'd say it could happen within the next 3-4 weeks.

[fhas]

Jul 4, 2017 12:50:00 GMT -5 85la said:

I wonder what the points difference is between Despacito and WT now and how long it might take for WT to take over. Pretty soon Despacito will stabilize and then fall in airplay and it's also falling in sales and streaming, while WT is continuing to make fast gains in radio and streaming and its sales should stabilize and maybe even rise back up. I'd say it could happen within the next 3-4 weeks.

Despacito 73,100 vs. 40,600 Wild Thoughts

[Deleted]

Spoiler: This will be first week that Despacito will be #1 on all three main component charts simultaneously since Shape Of You

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Regarding Wild Thoughts, I'd think it could end up in the 9-11 range of Radio Songs next week. Same deal for There's Nothing Holding Me Back.

[NeRD]

Jul 4, 2017 12:50:00 GMT -5 85la said:

I wonder what the points difference is between Despacito and WT now and how long it might take for WT to take over. Pretty soon Despacito will stabilize and then fall in airplay and it's also falling in sales and streaming, while WT is continuing to make fast gains in radio and streaming and its sales should stabilize and maybe even rise back up. I'd say it could happen within the next 3-4 weeks.

Yeah WT's sales seem to be stabilizing. It's streams are steadily growing, and it should climb up to #2 on Spotify by the end of the week. Obviously, radio is growing like crazy and with that it's gaining at least 2-3 points daily.

I agree, WT should be able to overtake Despacito in 3-4 weeks. However, it will all depend on when Taylor decides to release. My hope is around the middle of August so WT can get a week or two at #1.

We'll see

[Deleted]

I don't know if Wild Thoughts can be #1, It still way behind Despacito on all metrics
Taylor should easily be ahead of Despacito on sales, streams could be even if she has it on Spotify from day 1, but she will still be behind on radio...
Despacito is not dropping like a rock so Idk if it really only has 3-4 weeks left

[kml567]

Mariah is in big trouble.

"Despacito" at #1 currently has roughly 74,000 chart points. "I'm The One" and "Wild Thoughts" are roughly 43,000 chart points. The massive lead over the #2 song suggests that this will be #1 for 8 more weeks very easily.

Despacito = 136k sales (18%) + 143m airplay (19%) + 62.6m streaming (63%) = 74,850 chart points

Wild Thoughts = 58k sales (13%) + 61m airplay (14%) + 41.8m streaming (73%) = 43,250 chart points

With Billboard's Hot 100 change earlier this year to count streaming more heavily, streaming is roughly worth 60-70% chart points, while sales and airplay are each roughly 15-20% chart points. Notice that the top 10 on Hot 100 are nearly identical to the Streaming Songs chart lately.

So I doubt even Taylor Swift could stop this. She's need to sell somewhere around 400k to be competitive for #1, especially if she does not put her new music on Spotify. And even if she debuts at #1 with 400k sales, she will surely fall down the next week, which means "Despacito" would re-climb to #1 the following week.

[.It'sGriffin]

Jul 5, 2017 2:05:25 GMT -5 kml567 said:

Mariah is in big trouble.

"Despacito" at #1 currently has roughly 74,000 chart points. "I'm The One" and "Wild Thoughts" are roughly 43,000 chart points. The massive lead over the #2 song suggests that this will be #1 for 8 more weeks very easily.

Despacito = 136k sales (18%) + 143m airplay (19%) + 62.6m streaming (63%) = 74,850 chart points

Wild Thoughts = 58k sales (13%) + 61m airplay (14%) + 41.8m streaming (73%) = 43,250 chart points

With Billboard's Hot 100 change earlier this year to count streaming more heavily, streaming is roughly worth 60-70% chart points, while sales and airplay are each roughly 15-20% chart points. Notice that the top 10 on Hot 100 are nearly identical to the Streaming Songs chart lately.

So I doubt even Taylor Swift could stop this. She's need to sell somewhere around 400k to be competitive for #1, especially if she does not put her new music on Spotify. And even if she debuts at #1 with 400k sales, she will surely fall down the next week, which means "Despacito" would re-climb to #1 the following week.

Isn't Despacito predicted to do 70k this week?

[Golden Bluebird]

Jul 5, 2017 2:05:25 GMT -5 kml567 said:

With Billboard's Hot 100 change earlier this year to count streaming more heavily

Didn't they adjust the Hot 100 so that SALES are weighted slightly more? That's what I got from the discussion that happened about it back when Billboard did the adjustment earlier this year.

[Glove Slap]

Yes they increased the weight of sales this Spring and last. Streaming is just growing extremely fast, so those effects lose their visibility after a bit.

[NeRD]

Jul 5, 2017 2:05:25 GMT -5 kml567 said:

Mariah is in big trouble.

"Despacito" at #1 currently has roughly 74,000 chart points. "I'm The One" and "Wild Thoughts" are roughly 43,000 chart points. The massive lead over the #2 song suggests that this will be #1 for 8 more weeks very easily.

Despacito = 136k sales (18%) + 143m airplay (19%) + 62.6m streaming (63%) = 74,850 chart points

Wild Thoughts = 58k sales (13%) + 61m airplay (14%) + 41.8m streaming (73%) = 43,250 chart points

With Billboard's Hot 100 change earlier this year to count streaming more heavily, streaming is roughly worth 60-70% chart points, while sales and airplay are each roughly 15-20% chart points. Notice that the top 10 on Hot 100 are nearly identical to the Streaming Songs chart lately.

So I doubt even Taylor Swift could stop this. She's need to sell somewhere around 400k to be competitive for #1, especially if she does not put her new music on Spotify. And even if she debuts at #1 with 400k sales, she will surely fall down the next week, which means "Despacito" would re-climb to #1 the following week.

Wild Thoughts has already overtaken Despacito on YouTube in audio and is slowly closing the gap with the video.

Over at streaming, the main version of Despacito has been losing quite a bit this week, while Wild Thoughts has been stable/gaining somewhat.

As stated before I'll give Despacito 3-4 more weeks bringing it's total to 12-13 weeks.

Mariah is safe...her longest #1 record that is....

[rimetm]

Jul 6, 2017 14:14:08 GMT -5 NeRD said:

Wild Thoughts has already overtaken Despacito on YouTube in audio and is slowly closing the gap with the video.

Over at streaming, the main version of Despacito has been losing quite a bit this week, while Wild Thoughts has been stable/gaining somewhat.

As stated before I'll give Despacito 3-4 more weeks bringing it's total to 12-13 weeks.

Mariah is safe...her longest #1 record that is....

What are you talking about? With 4 days of the tracking week published in the US, Despacito holds a 2:1 advantage over Wild Thoughts:

3
Despacito (feat. Daddy Yankee)
Luis Fonsi
7,631,805 total views

4
Wild Thoughts (feat. Bryson Tiller & Rihanna)
DJ Khaled
7,441,061 total views

5
Despacito (Remix) (feat. Daddy Yankee & Justin Bieber)
Luis Fonsi
7,399,460 total views

Meanwhile, on Spotify:

10,774,960 3,017,545
9,109,248
7 Days up to 7/5

11,377,352 3,240,749
10,111,991
Last full tracking week

Despacito lost a total of ~.85m, which is noticeable, but Wild Thoughts lost a clean 1m, so it's pacing worse than Despacito, not better.

Don't count on Wild Thoughts claiming number one so assuredly because the numbers are against it.

[.It'sGriffin]

Drop a fucking video, Donald!

[inverse]

Is there any chance for Believer to go to 5 next week? If not then we could see not only Mariah but also Closer have their records smashed.

[jayhawk1117]

Jul 6, 2017 21:06:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

Is there any chance for Believer to go to 5 next week? If not then we could see not only Mariah but also Closer have their records smashed.

It's massive sales dropped so probably not. So rip Closers record unless Shape Of You PLUMMETS in airplay and streaming.

[fhas]

Pandora Top Spins Chart (https://www.nextbigsound.com/charts/top-spins)

1. I'm The One (=)
2. Wild Thoughts (+13)
5. Congratulations (+8)
8. Now Or Never (+31)
9. Redbone (+17)
18. Unforgettable (+10)

Despacito
#4 Remix (ft. Justin Bieber) (-2)
#29 Original Version (-11)
#56 Version Urbana/Sky (-9)

Also, last week Despacito had another version at #98.

What if this week's Pandora Spins Chart is the chart they reported to Billboard last week? It makes no sense for songs like Wild Thoughts to debut two weeks after its release and go up 15-2 AFTER the album release week. Also, Congratulations was #4 on streaming last week, which made no sense to me since it was down 10-13 on Pandora, but if this is the chart that was reported to Billboard (up 13-5), it makes sense.

[slw84]

Jul 6, 2017 21:06:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

Is there any chance for Believer to go to 5 next week? If not then we could see not only Mariah but also Closer have their records smashed.

I think Believer might miss it again and Shape of you will remain top 5. Shape of you deserves the record more than Closer.

[inverse]

Jul 7, 2017 11:46:39 GMT -5 slw84 said:

Jul 6, 2017 21:06:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

Is there any chance for Believer to go to 5 next week? If not then we could see not only Mariah but also Closer have their records smashed.

I think Believer might miss it again and Shape of you will remain top 5. Shape of you deserves the record more than Closer.

I guess technically you're right because Closer was in the top 5 with like 25000 points at the end and Shape Of You might get kicked out with 30000 so in that regard Shape Of You deserves it more but I'm biased because I love Closer 

[Deleted]

I called SOY's longevity even tho i hate the song

I called Despacito's strength (edit: I was the only one saying it could challenge SOY and TWIL. Not fully right yet but we'll see)

I got top2 in predictions 4 weeks in a row

I'm calling this now: Despacito will be at least 13 weeks and will challenge OSD

[.It'sGriffin]

Jul 7, 2017 13:57:26 GMT -5 @alec935 said:

I called SOY's longevity even tho i hate the song

I called Despacito's strength (edit: I was the only one saying it could challenge SOY and TWIL. Not fully right yet but we'll see)

I got top2 in predictions 4 weeks in a row

I'm calling this now: Despacito will be at least 13 weeks and will challenge OSD

I won. Once, but I did. There will be a "oooh ah" meme and SOY will challenge The Twist.

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2017 14:09:04 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

Jul 7, 2017 13:57:26 GMT -5 @alec935 said:

I called SOY's longevity even tho i hate the song

I called Despacito's strength (edit: I was the only one saying it could challenge SOY and TWIL. Not fully right yet but we'll see)

I got top2 in predictions 4 weeks in a row

I'm calling this now: Despacito will be at least 13 weeks and will challenge OSD

I won. Once, but I did. There will be a "oooh ah" meme and SOY will challenge The Twist.

I may have only won once but I finished 2nd three weeks around there. I'm like TWIL, so ur basically saying TWIL had same success as Pillowtalk. So basically you're saying lower numbers of points equal higher numbers of points, which is the same as saying 0 = 1. So ur basically saying infinity equals 0 and therefore nothing exists

[fhas]

Jul 7, 2017 15:45:23 GMT -5 @alec935 said:

Jul 7, 2017 14:09:04 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

I won. Once, but I did. There will be a "oooh ah" meme and SOY will challenge The Twist.

I may have only won once but I finished 2nd three weeks around there. I'm like TWIL, so ur basically saying TWIL had same success as Pillowtalk. So basically you're saying lower numbers of points equal higher numbers of points, which is the same as saying 0 = 1. So ur basically saying infinity equals 0 and therefore nothing exists

I'm like Wrecking Ball, three weeks at #1, two consecutive and a third week a few months after (or before in my case).

[fhas]

HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (http://hitsdailydouble.com/streaming_songs)

Expect a lot of songs to gain streams this week. Independency Day's effect, probably.

[Deleted]

Closer and many others in danger of dropping off because of JAY-Z and maybe 21 Savage

[.It'sGriffin]

Jul 7, 2017 15:45:23 GMT -5 @alec935 said:

Jul 7, 2017 14:09:04 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

I won. Once, but I did. There will be a "oooh ah" meme and SOY will challenge The Twist.

I may have only won once but I finished 2nd three weeks around there. I'm like TWIL, so ur basically saying TWIL had same success as Pillowtalk. So basically you're saying lower numbers of points equal higher numbers of points, which is the same as saying 0 = 1. So ur basically saying infinity equals 0 and therefore nothing exists

joke
dʒəʊk/Submit
noun
1.
a thing that someone says to cause amusement or laughter, especially a story with a funny punchline.
"she was in a mood to tell jokes"
synonyms: funny story, jest, witticism, quip, pleasantry; More
verb
1.
make jokes; talk humorously or flippantly.
"she could laugh and joke with her colleagues"
synonyms: tell jokes, crack jokes; More

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2017 17:30:06 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

Jul 7, 2017 15:45:23 GMT -5 @alec935 said:

I may have only won once but I finished 2nd three weeks around there. I'm like TWIL, so ur basically saying TWIL had same success as Pillowtalk. So basically you're saying lower numbers of points equal higher numbers of points, which is the same as saying 0 = 1. So ur basically saying infinity equals 0 and therefore nothing exists

joke
dʒəʊk/Submit
noun
1.
a thing that someone says to cause amusement or laughter, especially a story with a funny punchline.
"she was in a mood to tell jokes"
synonyms: funny story, jest, witticism, quip, pleasantry; More
verb
1.
make jokes; talk humorously or flippantly.
"she could laugh and joke with her colleagues"
synonyms: tell jokes, crack jokes; More

-> implying that my post was serious

[areyoureadytojump]

atrl.net/forums/topic/125-us-airplay-discussion/?page=128

1 BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like: 179.704 (- 0.685)
2 LUIS FONSI & DADDY YANKEE - Despacito f/Justin Bieber: 166.714 (+ 1.126)
3 ZEDD & ALESSIA CARA - Stay: 155.609 (+ 0.090)
4 ED SHEERAN - Shape Of You: 152.666 (+ 0.077)
5 THE CHAINSMOKERS & COLDPLAY - Something Just Like This: 138.785 (- 0.337)
6 DJ KHALED - I'm The One f/Bieber/Quavo…: 137.871 (- 0.102)
7 KYGO X SELENA GOMEZ - It Ain't Me: 114.873 (- 0.594)
8 IMAGINE DRAGONS - Believer: 110.947 (+ 0.937)
9 SHAWN MENDES - There's Nothing Holdin' Me...: 106.945 (+ 1.342) ▲
10 JAMES ARTHUR - Say You Won't Let Go: 106.643 (+ 0.532) ▼

11 SAM HUNT - Body Like A Back Road: 106.486 (+ 0.996) ▲
12 ED SHEERAN - Castle On The Hill: 105.704 (- 0.243) ▼
13 CHILDISH GAMBINO - Redbone: 96.614 (+ 0.954)
14 HALSEY - Now Or Never: 96.555 (+ 1.875) ▲
15 JULIA MICHAELS - Issues: 93.156 (- 1.652) ▼
16 DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 89.096 (+ 2.191) ▲
17 KENDRICK LAMAR - HUMBLE.: 88.782 (+ 0.209) ▼
18 CHARLIE PUTH - Attention: 70.142 (+ 1.491) ▲
19 FRENCH MONTANA - Unforgettable f/Swae Lee: 69.708 (+ 0.645) ▼
20 THOMAS RHETT - Craving You f/Maren Morris: 64.531 (+ 0.691) ▲

BLAKE SHELTON - Every Time I Hear That Song: 64.462 (- 0.948)
DYLAN SCOTT - My Girl: 62.859 (+ 0.573)
NIALL HORAN - Slow Hands: 58.864 (+ 0.946)
DAVID GUETTA - 2U f/Justin Bieber: 51.947 (+ 0.390)
KEITH URBAN - The Fighter f/Carrie Underwood: 51.212 (+ 0.472)
MILEY CYRUS - Malibu: 49.112 (+ 0.252)
SELENA GOMEZ - Bad Liar: 46.926 (+ 0.712)
POST MALONE - Congratulations f/Quavo: 40.837 (- 0.060)
BRUNO MARS - Versace On The Floor: 36.151 (+ 1.336)
LADY GAGA - The Cure: 34.568 (+ 0.190)
LIAM PAYNE - Strip That Down f/Quavo: 33.676 (+ 0.597)
CALVIN HARRIS - Feels f/Pharrell/Katy/Big Sean: 30.506 (+ 0.851)
CAMILA CABELLO - Crying In The Club: 26.123 (- 0.103)
KENDRICK LAMAR - LOYALTY. f/ Rihanna: 17.947 (+ 0.421)
FIFTH HARMONY - Down f/Gucci Mane: 15.694 (+ 0.043)
KILLERS - The Man: 6.808 (+ 0.152)
KATY PERRY - Save As Draft: 4.064 (+ 0.099)
THE CHAINSMOKERS - Honest: 3.204 (+ 0.172)
KESHA - Praying: 2.412 (+ 2.412)
ZEDD & LIAM PAYNE - Get Low: 1.682 (+ 1.682)

[areyoureadytojump]

Very early predictions from ATRL

1 Despacito 716 (=)
2 I'm The One 421 (=)
3 Wild Thoughts 402 (=)
4 That's What I Like 367 (=)
5 Shape Of You 303 (=)
6 Believer 268 (=)
7 Humble 268 (=)
8 Body Like A Back Road 252 (+4)
9 Congratulations 250 (-1)
10 Mask Off 250 (-1)

[jayhawk1117]

Jul 7, 2017 18:57:41 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Very early predictions from ATRL

1 Despacito 716 (=)
2 I'm The One 421 (=)
3 Wild Thoughts 402 (=)
4 That's What I Like 367 (=)
5 Shape Of You 303 (=)
6 Believer 268 (=)
7 Humble 268 (=)
8 Body Like A Back Road 252 (+4)
9 Congratulations 250 (-1)
10 Mask Off 250 (-1)

Guys watch out Wild Thoughts is coming for the summit in 2 more weeks😂😂