Billboard Hot 100: 10/7/2017

[Gary]

Taylor Swift vs. Cardi B: Who'll Be No. 1 on Next Week's Billboard Hot 100?


"Bodak Yellow" could dethrone "Look What You Made Me Do."

Taylor Swift's "Look What You Made Me Do" has led the Billboard Hot 100 chart for three weeks. On the latest list (dated Sept. 30), below Swift's smash, Cardi B's "Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)" pushes 3-2, likely setting up a battle for No. 1 next week.

On the next Hot 100 (dated Oct. 7), can rapper Cardi B's breakthrough hit dethrone pop titan Swift's leader?

Let's run some projections. Highlights of next week's Hot 100, which blends streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music, will post on Billboard.com Monday (Sept. 25).

Based on preliminary data for the tracking week, incumbent No. 1 "Look" could draw more than 30 million U.S. streams and 75 million in radio audience and sell more than 45,000 downloads. (Of those metrics, only airplay might show a gain week-over-week.)

Current runner-up "Yellow" could tally more than 35 million U.S. streams and 60 million airplay impressions and, like "Look," sell more than 45,000 (with the last two metrics increasing from this week).

Based on those forecasts, the songs should engage in a tight battle for No. 1, with "Yellow," given its apparent growing lead in streaming, perhaps enough to give it the edge over "Look," and possibly grant Cardi B her first Hot 100 leader.

Impressively, Cardi B would become the first female rapper to top the Hot 100 since Iggy Azalea, who led for seven weeks in 2014 with her debut hit, "Fancy," featuring Charli XCX. Cardi B would be just the just the second female ever to rule the Hot 100 with a rap title unaccompanied by any other act: Lauryn Hill sent her debut solo hit "Doo Wop (That Thing)" to No. 1 for two weeks in 1998. (She had first made her mark with the Fugees.)

Also looking ahead to next week's Hot 100, Logic's "1-800-273-8255," featuring Alessia Cara and Khalid, could earn more than 30 million U.S. streams and 45 million in radio audience and sell more than 30,000, while Post Malone's new single "Rockstar," featuring 21 Savage, could launch with more than 30 million U.S. streams and 70,000 sold (as well as a relatively insignificant first-week airplay sum). "1-800" could, thus, hold at its No. 3 Hot 100 high, while "Rockstar" looks likely to arrive in the top 10.

Check back Monday, Sept. 25, to find out who's No. 1 and for highlights of the Hot 100's top 10 and more.

[Deleted]

Bodak Yellow got this, I ain't concerned about it

[ry4n]

Sept 22, 2017 9:09:56 GMT -5 Leo ✔ said:

Why Trash Malone is so high? Ugh. USA Messing again.

Not just the US, Rockstar is #1 on UK Spotify and #1 on Global Spotify.

[Bigfatliar 3]

If i have to choose, i prefer Rockstar than Bodak Yellow. BY probably will have the #1 crown for 3-4 weeks tho.  

[deepston]

Sept 22, 2017 14:27:18 GMT -5 Bigfatliar 3 said:

If i have to choose, i prefer Rockstar than Bodak Yellow. BY probably will have the #1 crown for 3-4 weeks tho.  

Hum not really. Look is discounted and is #1 on iTunes again while BY is #4. BY will probably get this week, Look will top the other one, and then it'll be a toss up.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Updated: Taylor Swift vs. Cardi B … vs. Post Malone for No. 1 on Next Week's Billboard Hot 100

9/22/2017 by Gary Trust

"Bodak Yellow" or "Rockstar" could dethrone "Look What You Made Me Do."

(Updated as of 4:15 p.m. ET, Sept. 22)

Taylor Swift's "Look What You Made Me Do" has led the Billboard Hot 100 chart for three weeks. On the latest list (dated Sept. 30), below Swift's smash, Cardi B's "Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)" pushes 3-2, likely setting up a battle for No. 1 next week.

Meanwhile, a song not yet on the Hot 100, per new data, should also challenge for No. 1 upon its debut: Post Malone's new single "Rockstar," featuring 21 Savage.

On the next Hot 100 (dated Oct. 7), can rapper Cardi B's breakthrough hit or Post Malone's new release dethrone pop titan Swift's leader?

Let's run some projections. Highlights of next week's Hot 100, which blends streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music, will post on Billboard.com Monday (Sept. 25).

Based on preliminary data for the tracking week, incumbent No. 1 "Look" could draw more than 30 million U.S. streams and 75 million in radio audience and sell more than 45,000 downloads. (Of those metrics, only airplay might show a gain week-over-week.)

However, current runner-up "Yellow" could tally more than 35 million U.S. streams and 60 million airplay impressions and, like "Look," sell more than 45,000 (with the last two metrics increasing from this week).

Meanwhile, per new data received this afternoon (Sept. 22), Post Malone's "Rockstar" could launch with more than 40 million U.S. streams and 70,000 sold (as well as a building first-week airplay sum).

Based on those forecasts, the songs should engage in a tight battle for No. 1, with "Rockstar" or "Yellow," given their growth in streaming, perhaps enough to give either song the edge over "Look," and possibly grant Post Malone, 21 Savage or Cardi B each act's first trip to the top of the Hot 100.

Also looking ahead to next week's Hot 100, Logic's "1-800-273-8255," featuring Alessia Cara and Khalid, could earn more than 30 million U.S. streams and 45 million in radio audience and sell more than 30,000, keeping it in the top five conversation, although likely not in the race for No. 1. (On the Sept. 30 chart, it rises to a new No. 3 high.)

Check back Monday, Sept. 25, to find out who's No. 1 and for highlights of the Hot 100's top 10 and more.

[fhas]

According to HDD's streaming songs chart, "rockstar" had 36.7M on-demand streams this week versus "only" 16.6M for Bodak Yellow.

[Au$tin]

Sept 22, 2017 18:03:43 GMT -5 fhas said:

According to HDD's streaming songs chart, "rockstar" had 36.7M on-demand streams this week versus "only" 16.6M for Bodak Yellow.

81k to 54k in digital sales as well.

Over on Mediabase, it's 83.000 million AI to ~4.000 million if my estimation for "rockstar"'s airplay are correct. I don't know what that will translate to for Nielsen numbers, though.

[Bigfatliar 3]

I kinda miss here since i left months ago, anybody know how a song to be put on a spotify playlists and how they sort songs? especially the popular playlist such as Today's Top Hits and New Music Friday, Top Hits (country name), Summer Hits, Teens Party etc. I doubt the label pay some checks to do it tho. My guess.. they do it by themself, if so.. spotify really monopolies the music industry, really.

[Deleted]

Well RIP old Taylor and LWYMMD
Rockstar being a #1 contender with no video and airplay is def not good for her and the discount will be pointless

Cardi B probably will get more streams than Post with YouTube included, but he might still get #1 on streaming. ~40m on demand is worth more than ~20m on demand and ~20m on YouTube combined

[MilesW1998]

kworb.net/airadio/

Top 20 U.S. Overall Radio AI:

1. Attention- Charlie Puth (171.812) (-0.816)
2. There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back- Shawn Mendes (161.517) (-0.707)
3. Slow Hands- Niall Horan (152.658) (+1.409)
4. Wild Thoughts- DJ Khaled/Rihanna/Bryson Tiller (130.578) (-3.651)
5. Believer- Imagine Dragons (124.901) (-2.385)
6. Strip That Down- Liam Payne/Quavo (122.668) (+2.402)***
7. Unforgettable- French Montana/Swae Lee (119.131) (-0.661)
8. Feel It Still- Portugal. The Man (118.449) (+1.801)
9. Shape of You- Ed Sheeran (112.823) (+0.056)
10. Look What You Made Me Do- Taylor Swift (112.168) (+0.455)
11. That's What I Like- Bruno Mars (100.371) (-0.880)
12. Something Just Like This- The Chainsmokers/Coldplay (93.378) (-0.682)
13. Stay- Zedd/Alessia Cara (88.301) (-0.668) +1
14. Despacito- Luis Fonsi/Daddy Yankee/Justin Bieber (87.647) (-1.327) -1
15. Bodak Yellow- Cardi B (82.584) (+1.373)
16. Body Like A Back Road- Sam Hunt (80.435) (-0.373)
17. What About Us- P!nk (78.032) (+0.866)
18. What Lovers Do- Maroon 5/SZA (74.665) (+1.395)
19. No Promises- Cheat Codes/Demi Lovato (73.864) (+1.090)
20. 1-800...- Logic/Alessia Cara/Khalid (70.452) (+2.569) +1

Others:

27. Rake It Up- Yo Gotti/Nicki Minaj (60.700) (+1.241) +1
31. Sorry Not Sorry- Demi Lovato (57.590) (+1.271) +1
33. Too Good At Goodbyes- Sam Smith (56.537) (+2.569) +1
72. Thunder- Imagine Dragons (26.973) (+1.650) +5

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Thunder UP UP.
Every Imagine Dragons hit song: First 20 weeks outside of top 50 and then slowly rising to it's peak, most likely TOP 10. So, if you want to see Imagine Dragons song to peak, just wait 40 weeks.

[Deleted]

SOY will be top10 on airplay for another 5 months if the difference in audience between that and the next song rising is more than 30m

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

^And falling of Wild Thoughts, Believer & Unforgettable.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

I just realized that the website that provides the weekly Pandora chart is down ...

[singingrulebritannia]

Sept 22, 2017 19:45:48 GMT -5 @pete said:

SOY will be top10 on airplay for another 5 months if the difference in audience between that and the next song rising is more than 30m

Sept 22, 2017 19:50:28 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

^And falling of Wild Thoughts, Believer & Unforgettable.

I'm not exactly here for Perfect as a song, but if it gets stations to drop Shape of You faster, then bring it on.

[Someone]

simmnfierzig‘s updated Predictions


1 Bodak Yellow 420 (+1)
2 Look What You Made Me Do 387 (-1)
3 Rockstar 371 (debut)
4 1-800-273-8255 328 (-1)
5 Despacito 294 (-1)
6 Unforgettable 255 (+1)
7 Believer 238 (+2)
8 Rake It Up 237 (+8)
9 Attention 235 (-1)
10 Feel It Still 222 (+4)
11 Wild Thoughts 218 (-5)
12 Too Good At Goodbyes 214 (-7)
13 Slow Hands 214 (-2)
14 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 212 (-4)
15 Strip That Down 209 (-3)
16 Bank Account 208 (-1)
17 Sorry Not Sorry 206 (-4)
18 Shape Of You 184 (-1)
19 I Get The Bag 173 (+5)
20 XO Tour Lif3 171 (=)

21 Mi Gente 170 (-2)
22 That's What I Like 169 (-4)
23 Humble 156 (=)
24 Young Dumb & Broke 155 (+2)
25 What Lovers Do 155 (+4)
26 Body Like A Back Road 148 (-4)
27 What About Us 147 (+3)
28 Something Just Like This 144 (-1)
29 Praying 142 (-4)
30 Location 138 (-2)
31 Ready For It 135 (-10)
32 Thunder 132 (+8)
33 What Ifs 132 (-1)
34 Congratulations 130 (-1)
35 Love Galore 127 (+1)
36 Friends 124 (-2)
37 I'm The One 123 (-2)
38 Redbone 121 (-7)
39 Say You Won't Let Go 114 (+4)
40 Small Town Boy 113 (-2)

41 Stay 110 (=)
42 Loyalty 108 (-3)
43 Jocelyn Flores 104 (-1)
44 The Race 101 (+4)
45 When It Rains It Pours 101 (+4)
46 Feels 101 (-9)
47 No Promises 100 (-2)
48 The Weekend 100 (+6)
49 Heartache On The Dance Floor 99 (+3)
50 Mask Off 98 (-4)
51 Crew 97 (=)
52 The Way Life Goes 97 (+3)
53 New Rules 95 (+3)
54 Transportin' 94 (+4)
55 Unforgettable Thomas Rhett 94 (-8)
56 Silence 91 (+3)
57 Do Re Mi 88 (-7)
58 Roll In Peace 86 (-5)
59 **** Love 84 (-2)
60 Butterfly Effect 83 (+1)

61 Bad At Love 82 (+10)
62 Too Much To Ask 82 (debut)
63 It's A Vibe 81 (-3)
64 Havana 80 (=)
65 All The Pretty Girls 77 (+1)
66 Glorious 76 (-1)
67 Dusk Till Daw 72 (-23)
68 Curve 70 (debut)
69 Sauce It Up 70 (-2)
70 DNA 68 (debut)
71 Felices Los 4 64 (-1)
72 Escapate Conmingo 64 (+3)
73 No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 61 (-5)
74 They Don't Know 60 (+3)
75 B.E.D. 58 (-6)
76 Gucci Gang 57 (+5)
77 Greatest Love Story 57 (+5)
78 Back To You 56 (-6)
79 Every Little Thing 56 (-1)
80 Whatever You Need 55 (-4)

81 Relationship 55 (+7)
82 Perfect 53 (re-entry)
83 Fetish 51 (-9)
84 Pills & Automobiles 51 (+14)
85 Questions 50 (+4)
86 Homemade Dynamite 50 (debut)
87 More Girls Like You 49 (-1)
88 Love So Soft 48 (-26)
89 Light It Up 48 (+2)
90 No Complaints 48 (+7)
91 No Limit 47 (-6)
92 Do I Make You Wanna 47 (-2)
93 I'll Name The Dogs 46 (-20)
94 I Could Use A Love Song 46 (+1)
95 Fix A Drink 46 (+1)
96 It Ain't My Fault 46 (-2)
97 Everybody Dies In Their Nightmares 46 (-18)
98 These Heaux 45 (-11)
99 Drinkin Problem 44 (-15)
100 Wish I Knew You 42 (-7)

[forg]

I hope Feel It Still goes to the top 10
Poor Slow Hands, it needs to continue rising in airplay to make up for poor streamin ala Send My Love and Scars to Your Beautiful poor streaming but strong airplay pushed it to the top 10

I kinda want rockstar to debut at #1 just because it was something no one expected

[truemusicreviews]

"Feel It Still" is cracking the Top 10 and "Homemade Dynamite" is charting so all is good.

[badrobot]

Sept 22, 2017 21:13:20 GMT -5 forg said:

I hope Feel It Still goes to the top 10
Poor Slow Hands, it needs to continue rising in airplay to make up for poor streamin ala Send My Love and Scars to Your Beautiful poor streaming but strong airplay pushed it to the top 10

I kinda want rockstar to debut at #1 just because it was something no one expected

Could you imagine someone saying last year “Post Malone will have a song debut higher than any Katy Perry song’s peak in 2017”? Oh and “a Spanish language crossover hit will tie the longest-running #1 record in the same week Ed Sheeran breaks the record for longest-running US top ten hit.” It’s certainly been a year of surprising chart performances.

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2017 22:03:25 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Sept 22, 2017 21:13:20 GMT -5 forg said:

I hope Feel It Still goes to the top 10
Poor Slow Hands, it needs to continue rising in airplay to make up for poor streamin ala Send My Love and Scars to Your Beautiful poor streaming but strong airplay pushed it to the top 10

I kinda want rockstar to debut at #1 just because it was something no one expected

Could you imagine someone saying last year “Post Malone will have a song debut higher than any Katy Perry song’s peak in 2017”? Oh and “a Spanish language crossover hit will tie the longest-running #1 record in the same week Ed Sheeran breaks the record for longest-running US top ten hit.” It’s certainly been a year of surprising chart performances.

Well, okay, that last one isn't so far-fetched. Ed was HUGE in 2015, and TOL lasted a long time on the charts.

[badrobot]

Sept 22, 2017 22:22:31 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

Sept 22, 2017 22:03:25 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Could you imagine someone saying last year “Post Malone will have a song debut higher than any Katy Perry song’s peak in 2017”? Oh and “a Spanish language crossover hit will tie the longest-running #1 record in the same week Ed Sheeran breaks the record for longest-running US top ten hit.” It’s certainly been a year of surprising chart performances.

Well, okay, that last one isn't so far-fetched. Ed was HUGE in 2015, and TOL lasted a long time on the charts.

For me the timing of two simultaneous records is the more surprising part.

[.It'sGriffin]

I predict that I Get the Bag will enter the top 10 soon.

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2017 7:21:00 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

I predict that I Get the Bag will enter the top 10 soon.

Please be wrong.

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format

Overall AI (Top 20) - 09/23/2017
1. (=) CHARLIE PUTH - Attention (170.642) (-1.170)
2. (=) SHAWN MENDES - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back (160.199) (-1.318)
3. (=) NIALL HORAN - Slow Hands (153.706) (+1.048)
4. (=) DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts (127.160) (-3.418)
5. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Believer (122.868) (-2.033)
6. (=) LIAM PAYNE - Strip That Down f/Quavo (121.994) (-0.674) ***
7. (+1) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (119.378) (+0.929)
8. (-1) FRENCH MONTANA - Unforgettable f/Swae Lee (118.405) (-0.726)
9. (=) ED SHEERAN - Shape Of You (112.450) (-0.373)
10. (=) TAYLOR SWIFT - Look What You Made Me Do (112.137) (-0.031)
11. (=) BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like (98.746) (-1.625)
12. (=) THE CHAINSMOKERS & COLDPLAY - Something Just Like This (92.854) (-0.524)
13. (=) ZEDD & ALESSIA CARA - Stay (87.545) (-0.756)
14. (=) LUIS FONSI - Despacito f/Daddy Yankee (85.540) (-2.107)
15. (=) CARDI B - Bodak Yellow (83.273) (+0.689)
16. (=) SAM HUNT - Body Like A Back Road (79.576) (-0.859)
17. (=) P!NK - What About Us (78.993) (+0.961)
18. (=) MAROON 5 - What Lovers Do f/SZA (75.286) (+0.621)
19. (=) CHEAT CODES - No Promises f/Demi Lovato (74.330) (+0.466)
20. (=) LOGIC - 1-800-273-8255 f/A.Cara/Khalid (72.638) (+2.186)

Others:
29. (+2) DEMI LOVATO - Sorry Not Sorry (58.646) (+1.056)
30. (+3) SAM SMITH - Too Good At Goodbyes (58.511) (+1.974)
66. (+6) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Thunder (28.501) (+1.528) ***

[MilesW1998]

464. rockstar- Post malone/21 Savage (2.359) 424 spins all on Rhythmic.

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2017 14:27:18 GMT -5 Bigfatliar 3 said:

BY probably will have the #1 crown for 3-4 weeks tho.  

Thats what the discount of LWYMMD is for.

[deepston]

Why hasn't Praying been discounted yet?

[Normi]

Sept 23, 2017 9:51:06 GMT -5 deepston said:

Why hasn't Praying been discounted yet?

Because it's still selling well
A discount could bring it to the Top 20 but I don't think that's what she's aiming for

[deepston]

Anyway, I think discounting Look will be it's dying breath, it'll probably top the new week after Cardi reaches n.1 and I can't predict what will happen next. Maybe new Taylor single in just a few weeks?