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Post by Glove Slap on Feb 3, 2018 19:54:34 GMT -5
Any effect CSTF had would be extremely minimal given that it's not on the album, which is visible to anyone who looks at the tracklisting. The effect would have been on the lead single's first week (which would have most likely been there anyway since his last album(s) had three radio hits on them and also did well (the second less so, but it still went #1 and sold over a million in the end)). You're just doing the most and trying to pull at strings to make this opening sound less impressive than whatever level it's being perceived as, the proof being that pretty much all your Justin related posts have been about how you want him to do bad and that you've been liking any remotely negative or critical post about him. There's no need to do that and be that extra. If this album falls off a cliff after the first week, it'll do so anyway.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Feb 3, 2018 20:49:20 GMT -5
^Regarding CSTF!, I'd say it helped bridge the 20/20 Experience era and this new album. It at least kept him visible and relevant during that time, if you discount Love Never Felt So Good and Drink You Away's sudden relevance due to 2015 CMAs performance with Chris Stapleton. Given that response to Man of the Woods songs released so far has been underwhelming (although Say Something seems to be the most likely hit), if it manages first week pure sales higher than those of the 20/20 Experience part 2, with the Super Bowl performance boost, I'd consider that to be a good start in the current album sales climate.
Another factor to consider for the album's success, is that it is probably the last one that remained for an artist that had pent up demand (more than 4 years since his last album's release). That said, long term success, as always, is not dictated by a single week. Something tells me it won't be nearly as dominant as the 20/20 Experience part 1, but it will manage to be in the top 10 (5?) 2018 year-end Billboard Hot 100.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Feb 3, 2018 21:11:32 GMT -5
Oh yeah, CSTF definitely gave him a huge hit in the interim, I'm just saying that I don't think it really added a significant amount of additional units to what this album would do given that it's not present on it, and that even without it, there was anticipation given that (discounting DYA being released over a year and a half later), his last campaign ended on a relative high note (top 10 Hot 100, #1 CHR hit). From that point, the jumpoff was the pretty much the same. Likewise, I don't think IDWLF did much for the amount of units Taylor's most recent album moved in its first week given that it wasn't present on it and she was coming off a very successful campaign.
20/20 Pt. 2 had the benefit of being put out in the 4th quarter before streaming really started to cut into sales, but I definitely agree that a similar opening to it would be a great start. I mentioned it in my first post because even though it had a relatively much smaller week than the first part, it was still solidly on the larger side, especially when you considered it came with less visible hype and much less successful singles before the release. I remember at the time some were wondering whether Lorde could end up being #1 that week given how huge Royals was, and it wasn't because they expected her to reach above 300k, but because they expected a him to be significantly below it. But in the end he sold well over twice as much. That's one of the more reliable signifiers of a good core base.
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Post by Choco on Feb 3, 2018 21:15:45 GMT -5
These are good numbers. The lack of radio hits will hurt it's legs though. Remember Katy had a relatively healthy debut (aided by ticket bundling instead of the Super Bowl, but still) as well and the era still went to crap.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 21:27:21 GMT -5
Any effect CSTF had would be extremely minimal given that it's not on the album, which is visible to anyone who looks at the tracklisting. The effect would have been on the lead single's first week (which would have most likely been there anyway since his last album(s) had three radio hits on them and also did well (the second less so, but it still went #1 and sold over a million in the end)). You're just doing the most and trying to pull at strings to make this opening sound less impressive than whatever level it's being perceived as, the proof being that pretty much all your Justin related posts have been about how you want him to do bad and that you've been liking any remotely negative or critical post about him. There's no need to do that and be that extra. If this album falls off a cliff after the first week, it'll do so anyway. I'm not saying it's on the album. I think "Bad Romance" helped shift units of Born This Way despite not being on the album and being released years prior because it was a gigantic hit and that helps add momentum to someone's career. So him not doing well with the first few singles isn't as brand-damaging as someone like Katy Perry failing to do well with the Witness singles because he JUST had one of the biggest hits of career which definitely helped keep his profile up and people ready and wanting to hear more from him, even if I wasn't one of those people I can see that and I really don't think that's a troll-statement to make. I've mocked his streaming before but he definitely has a fanbase that will buy his music. I think this album is in a very interesting place because he could potentially completely pull it around with "Say Something", but right now it's not looking guaranteed, which is interesting to discuss. Justin has a huge fanbase, he will have tons of people loving his Superbowl performance and I've said this album is basically guaranteed to do platinum. I've acknowledged a lot of his accomplishments, but I think he's been annoying this era and have made fun of him when he's released videos and songs I haven't liked. It really isn't all that deep lmfao but is what I've been doing considered trolling? honest question because I'll stop if I'm breaking the rules but I've just thought people were allowed to have different opinions and thought that I've been being reasonable. As for liking other peoples post that are negative, if something is funny or I agree with it I like a post lmfao, I thought that was something we're allowed to do at pulse and think it's pretty extra to make a big deal out of it, but different opinions make for great discussion :)
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Feb 3, 2018 21:37:06 GMT -5
I don't agree with the BR analogy for multiple reasons, but it's whatever. Expressing a differing opinion is not trolling (and certainly nothing about liking posts, you can like any post you want lmao), I just pointed out the redundancy of the posts you made in this thread given your other posts about Justin, that was all.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 21:42:24 GMT -5
I don't agree with the BR analogy for multiple reasons, but it's whatever. Nothing about expressing a differing opinion is trolling (and certainly nothing about liking posts, you can like any post you want lmao), I just pointed out the redundancy of the posts you made in this thread given your other posts about Justin, that was all. No problem! I just wasn't sure with you being a moderator and saying that if it was a slight warning and wanted to make sure I wasn't breaking the rules. I totally respect what your saying and don't want to be annoying just hating on him and adding nothing to the conversation, that's just why I wanted to show that even if I don't like him I can see his achievements and am not delusional. But I'll take your advice and tone down on the Justin-centric posts. Also yeah the Bad Romance wasn't a perfect comparison, I was just lazy and trying to think of a big hit that helped add momentum to an artists career. I just meant that he had a big career highlight within the last couple years and I think that definitely helped this opening.
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HEADOFTHEPACK
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Post by HEADOFTHEPACK on Feb 3, 2018 22:22:45 GMT -5
^^ I get what you're saying and generally agree but I'm not so sure in this case. That song was an anomaly. It was a soundtrack song and doesn't *really* sound much like a JT song save something like Take Back The Night. I love Justin and still hate CSTF.
I agree with another poster saying it was a bit too long ago, I don't think it would have had any impact on this era at all. But that's just my thought. If he's coming into this era with momentum, it's just the standard momentum that a release from him brings imo.
SB will inflate the numbers I'm sure - great timing.
Edit: ugh just released there was a whole other page of discussion about this and I'm referring to entirely the wrong post.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 22:32:00 GMT -5
HEADOFTHEPACK yeah I get what you guys are saying with it being a soundtrack single and a couple years old. I overstated its impact on his current sales, my original point that I didn't communicate well was that despite the rocky roll-out, the fact that his last few projects were so successful make him debuting high not surprising and that CTSF was a good example of how well he's done recently since the 20/20 experience was almost 5 years ago and if he didn't have a bridge between projects that was hugely successful I would have been more surprised at these numbers. But they are great, pretty-decent was understating it.
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forg
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Post by forg on Feb 3, 2018 22:37:29 GMT -5
CSTF did boost the Troll's OST sales, it did really well. Anyway, hoping for great sales for the album just because I want to see good sales again as the pure sales era is dying, so anything that sells is good for my chart geek eyes
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TakeMe
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Post by TakeMe on Feb 3, 2018 22:42:52 GMT -5
Wonder if his next album will hit number one, it seems this album is set to debut on top just because he’s Justin Timberlake as Katy Perry’s Witness debuted on top because she’s Katy Perry, don’t really see any song from the album becoming a hit... and him doing good on the charts because of who he is won’t last forever...
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Feb 4, 2018 10:34:37 GMT -5
^In KP's case, don't forget that its first week numbers were boosted by the tour album bundle, which is a lesser boost than the highest profile one provided by a Super Bowl performance. The difference main between both artists I see is that Justin Timberlake has proved to be a relatively consistent album selling artist (not Adele nor Taylor Swift level, but the next tier for sure) as reflected in the numbers in this article: Ask Billboard: Justin Timberlake & *NSYNC's Career Album & Song Sales
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Post by Duca on Feb 4, 2018 14:53:10 GMT -5
You guys are really trying it with the Katy comparisons. Witness sold 35-40k during the first week without the ticket bundle and Katy has never sold 300k in a week while Justin is doing it 16 years into his solo career with no promo so far. His 37 announced tour dates sold out instantly and will likely gross more than Katy's 108. Plus, Say Something could debut in the top 10 on the Hot 100 while Katy couldn't get a second top 40 single.
Not sure what Man of the Woods has to do with Can't Stop the Feeling! either because it's not on the album (which doesn't have anything remotely similar on it.) Its purpose was to sell the soundtrack and the movie which it did since DreamWorks decided to turn Trolls into a franchise.
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Post by Taylor. on Feb 4, 2018 17:45:51 GMT -5
His 37 announced tour dates sold out instantly There's hundreds (if not thousands) of tickets left for both of his shows in Toronto, and a quick glance at other tour dates are the same.
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Feb 4, 2018 18:16:34 GMT -5
His 37 announced tour dates sold out instantly There's hundreds (if not thousands) of tickets left for both of his shows in Toronto, and a quick glance at other tour dates are the same. Sold out according to Live Nation: LOS ANGELES, Jan. 16, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Due to sell out shows across North America, Justin Timberlake has revealed ten additional dates for the coveted The Man Of The Woods Tour. Second shows have been announced in Toronto, New York, Chicago, Boston, Montreal, Las Vegas, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Two new cities have also been added, with shows in Pittsburgh on June 1 and Philadelphia on June 2. Produced by Live Nation Global Touring, Wright Entertainment Group, LBI Entertainment & Tennman Touring, the North American outing kicks off March 13 in Toronto.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2018 18:25:31 GMT -5
There's hundreds (if not thousands) of tickets left for both of his shows in Toronto, and a quick glance at other tour dates are the same. Sold out according to Live Nation: LOS ANGELES, Jan. 16, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Due to sell out shows across North America, Justin Timberlake has revealed ten additional dates for the coveted The Man Of The Woods Tour. Second shows have been announced in Toronto, New York, Chicago, Boston, Montreal, Las Vegas, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Two new cities have also been added, with shows in Pittsburgh on June 1 and Philadelphia on June 2. Produced by Live Nation Global Touring, Wright Entertainment Group, LBI Entertainment & Tennman Touring, the North American outing kicks off March 13 in Toronto. They lied girl
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Post by Taylor. on Feb 4, 2018 18:31:45 GMT -5
There's hundreds (if not thousands) of tickets left for both of his shows in Toronto, and a quick glance at other tour dates are the same. Sold out according to Live Nation: LOS ANGELES, Jan. 16, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Due to sell out shows across North America, Justin Timberlake has revealed ten additional dates for the coveted The Man Of The Woods Tour. Second shows have been announced in Toronto, New York, Chicago, Boston, Montreal, Las Vegas, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Two new cities have also been added, with shows in Pittsburgh on June 1 and Philadelphia on June 2. Produced by Live Nation Global Touring, Wright Entertainment Group, LBI Entertainment & Tennman Touring, the North American outing kicks off March 13 in Toronto. That just means some shows sold out, not all.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2018 21:47:36 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2018 22:14:23 GMT -5
I think most people expect this to be a frontloaded release but a 315k opening seems a bit bleak.
The album is getting pummeled in reviews rather publicly though (radio DJs are even dragging it), and his halftime performance is getting similar treatment so all this bad word of mouth is killing all the buzz he had going into this weekend...
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Feb 5, 2018 22:15:20 GMT -5
It's not down. It's between the initial range.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2018 22:21:55 GMT -5
It's not down. It's between the initial range. Sis I like you but is Duca taking over your account right now? 300-350k was without the Superbowl, now the high end of the predictions are 325k, down 25k from the initial range. yeah it's between the initial range but it's still down a bit from the high end of it. Either way it's hilarious that the thread title is 300-350k without SB boost and with the SB boost its down to 315-325k
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Feb 5, 2018 22:59:22 GMT -5
^HITS said on Saturday: "Based on early reads after one full day of sales, with extremely limited info available today"
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2018 23:16:16 GMT -5
Yeah, to be fair to HITS they do this a lot - they'll post a fairly wide ballpark figure at the very start, then tighten it once they get a couple of days' worth of actual sales to work with. Honestly I wish they'd do themselves a favor and just wait until they have more info to work with, b/c it makes their projections look more like semi-uneducated guesswork than they probably are.
With that said, there are some albums that hit the top of their projection and others that land near the bottom, and MOTW is apparently doing the latter. Either way, Justin's problem isn't the opening (these days 300k is nice for anybody), but the probable lack of legs. Reaching a million may prove to be a much more challenging feat than it should be for someone of his current status.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Feb 5, 2018 23:32:44 GMT -5
^HITS said on Saturday: "Based on early reads after one full day of sales, with extremely limited info available today" Yeah, the normal amount of information they usually have. One full day (Friday) and some of Saturday. That's actually probably more info than they usually have, considering they tend to post the first prediction off just 1 day. His album must really have been a bit frontloaded if the prediction ultimately didn't increase with the biggest form of promotion any artist can have. We will see whether HDD overpredicted, or his album just turned out to be frontloaded when his second week numbers come.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Feb 5, 2018 23:43:12 GMT -5
But was the 300-350k projection completely "without the Super Bowl boost"?
Maybe I'm way off, but my understanding was that Hits made the projection without *specific data* about how the album and its songs would perform following the Super Bowl (given, you know, that the game hadn't happened yet).
I still figured that they took some sort of Super Bowl boost into account when modeling the data. It would be weird not to.
I look at it the same way as when they mention an artist having an upcoming SNL performance or whatever -- they're accounting for a boost, they just don't know how accurately they're forecasting said boost.
-- Granted, they did tease upside of 400K, so maybe I'm mistaken. But, I don't know, I guess I just figured the "could do 400K" was more about a particularly positive reaction to his performance (and the idea that he would perform several MOTW songs during the game).
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🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾
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Post by 🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾 on Feb 5, 2018 23:48:03 GMT -5
But was the 300-350k projection really "without the Super Bowl boost"? Maybe I'm way off, but my understanding was that Hits made the projection without *specific data* about how the album and its songs would perform following the Super Bowl (given, you know, that the game hadn't happened yet). I still figured that they took some sort of Super Bowl boost into account when modeling the data. It would be weird not to. Unless they revised it because maybe there will not be a significant boost as originally predicted.
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TakeMe
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Post by TakeMe on Feb 6, 2018 0:53:41 GMT -5
Does anyone really think that after that lackluster halftime show Justin gave that the sales of his album will really go up much? Like 500k copies sold?
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Feb 6, 2018 3:47:53 GMT -5
Still respectable numbers since his halftime was sadly not focused on Man of the Woods.
The media crucifixion will eventually somewhat die down because they'll find a new victim so we'll see how the rest of the era pans out.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Feb 6, 2018 4:03:31 GMT -5
Wonder why SS wasn't part of the set though, that could've easily boost it and also been a nice fresh touch to the set which otherwise was a bit flat
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 6:29:35 GMT -5
Still respectable numbers since his halftime was sadly not focused on Man of the Woods. The media crucifixion will eventually somewhat die down because they'll find a new victim so we'll see how the rest of the era pans out. But he did Fallon after which had the highest ratings for a post superbowl talkshow since 2012. He performed two Man of the Woods songs and did an interview along with opening the superbowl with his lead single. I swear I wouldn't be perched in the Timberlake threads if you all weren't doing the most to stay in your fantasy land
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