Sherane Lamar
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Post by Sherane Lamar on May 19, 2018 17:04:59 GMT -5
But why shouldn’t heavily streamed songs dominate? I don’t see why something that only sells 25k should automatically chart high, especially when something in the 50s in streaming has over 7 million streams (even if you divide the 7 million streams by 20 repeated plays you get 350k people listening). Using your example, ff HDD revenue chart is accurate: 7MM streams = $50K, while 25K sales = $22-24K. How much are radio spins worth? Hot 100 supposed to be "this week's most popular songs". Not the most profitable. |
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 19, 2018 17:31:19 GMT -5
^ They take revenue into account though, it's definitely part of it.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on May 19, 2018 17:55:29 GMT -5
Using your example, ff HDD revenue chart is accurate: 7MM streams = $50K, while 25K sales = $22-24K. How much are radio spins worth? Hot 100 supposed to be "this week's most popular songs". Not the most profitable. Who’s to say profitability isn’t a measure of popularity? |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on May 19, 2018 19:21:12 GMT -5
Using your example, ff HDD revenue chart is accurate: 7MM streams = $50K, while 25K sales = $22-24K. How much are radio spins worth? Hot 100 supposed to be "this week's most popular songs". Not the most profitable. Popularity is subjective under the current measuring system. The formula allocating the three major components is arbitrary depending on Billboard’s whims and includes multiple exclusions, caveats, etc. It also excludes TV performance if songs that are are by millions. At one time videos on TV mattered but weren’t included. Concerts and films use pure revenue, not tickets sold to determine the most popular so they concept exists. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on May 19, 2018 20:38:07 GMT -5
I think the formula is the most accurate its ever been. Pre-1991... just gorilla math.
90s was a mess with airplay rule causing chaos the latter half. Then in 2000s the airplay only chart is obviously self-explanatory messy.
The 2008-2013 digital era also overwhelmingly helped Pop. Artists like Drake who are just breaking every record today, and who's old albums are still charting amazingly show their popularity was never being measured in the best way with their audience (teen-young adult, 16-30 demo, male leaning) being the biggest illegal downloaders/streamers.
It was even obvious then their popularity wasn't being fully showcased. I thought it was absurd when artists like Lil Wayne were doing 1 million first week (also Kanye, Drake, Nicki, etc were doing huge numbers 2010-2011), and were struggling to get 1 top 5 hit on Hot 100. Clearly they had a very huge fanbase, and their singles were connecting very hard for them to be outdoing goliath Pop names (Rihanna, Katy, etc) with their album sales.
Now with streaming you can really see which artist is being consumed to truly millions and millions, and whether they're sustaining that popularity week to week.
2015-2016 was perfect Hot 100 wise, I feel like all mainstream audience perspectives were being captured on Hot 100. Now Rap is starting to kinda get a bit too much overrepresentation maybe.
It will be interesting to see if Rap's share grows or diminishes in coming years.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on May 19, 2018 21:11:40 GMT -5
It was even obvious then their popularity wasn't being fully showcased. I thought it was absurd when artists like Lil Wayne were doing 1 million first week (also Kanye, Drake, Nicki, etc were doing huge numbers 2010-2011), and were struggling to get 1 top 5 hit on Hot 100. Clearly they had a very huge fanbase, and their singles were connecting very hard for them to be outdoing goliath Pop names (Rihanna, Katy, etc) with their album sales. By that logic then Taylor Swift's popularity is not being represented fairly when she sold 2m copies of reputation. but Delicate can't even crack top 40. Same for P!nk and even Metallica. Not that I don't agree with most of your post.I'm annoyed by album bombs but otherwise I'm fine with the charts as they are. No reason why sales should count more when songs are selling less each week. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on May 19, 2018 21:32:42 GMT -5
It was even obvious then their popularity wasn't being fully showcased. I thought it was absurd when artists like Lil Wayne were doing 1 million first week (also Kanye, Drake, Nicki, etc were doing huge numbers 2010-2011), and were struggling to get 1 top 5 hit on Hot 100. Clearly they had a very huge fanbase, and their singles were connecting very hard for them to be outdoing goliath Pop names (Rihanna, Katy, etc) with their album sales. By that logic then Taylor Swift's popularity is not being represented fairly when she sold 2m copies of reputation. but Delicate can't even crack top 40. Same for P!nk and even Metallica. Not that I don't agree with most of your post.I'm annoyed by album bombs but otherwise I'm fine with the charts as they are. No reason why sales should count more when songs are selling less each week. Eh, that comparison is bleh imo. Delicate is Taylor's fourth single. Drake/Nicki/Wayne/Kanye/etc were struggling to go top 10/20 with their lead singles, and yet their albums did huge opening numbers (and sold well overall). LWYMMD debuted #1, and the follow-up single went top 5. Clearly in Taylor's case her pre-album hype was shown with the pre-album singles. Whereas with the rappers during 2009-2012 it was a diff story. And the other examples you gave are artists who's numbers have been seriously inflated by tour bundles, and wouldn't even be past 500K without them. That's another discussion though. My point was -- with Drake suddenly getting a new top 10 every other week, I don't think his popularity with singles just massively skyrocketed the past years. He's felt this huge for years with his demographic as far as hit-making goes. I just think the Hot 100 is finally more accurately depicting his popularity with singles, in comparison to his earlier years. |
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Sherane Lamar
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Post by Sherane Lamar on May 19, 2018 22:45:40 GMT -5
Hot 100 supposed to be "this week's most popular songs". Not the most profitable. Popularity is subjective under the current measuring system. The formula allocating the three major components is arbitrary depending on Billboard’s whims and includes multiple exclusions, caveats, etc. It also excludes TV performance if songs that are are by millions. At one time videos on TV mattered but weren’t included. Concerts and films use pure revenue, not tickets sold to determine the most popular so they concept exists. You're right. The stream to sales ratio is subjective, and the radio to stream ratio is downright counterproductive. And the future streaming rules will add to this contradiction of what Billboard claims to stand for. I was only pointing out that money earned is irrelevant to popularity. If 100 people pay $5 to listen to Song A. And 1000 people pay 10 cents to listen to song B. Then Song B is more popular, while Song A is more profitable. Two entirely different measurements. Like comparing weight to volume. I'm a huge box office geek. And I could go on for hours about the differences between the two industries, how we measure them differently, etc. Bottom line is, box office is not meant to measure popularity. It's very often accepted as a very useful proxy for a film's popularity. But it's not necessarily correct. For example, one could claim "Beauty and the Beast is the second most popular movie of 2017", and few would speak out to disagree. But when actually looking at BATB and the similarly grossing Fate of the Furious, it becomes clear that Fate of the Furious was viewed by way more people, but the tickets were much cheaper on average. But in general, Box Office is a very useful proxy for popularity, and it's very rare that the clarification between the two ever needs to be made. Hot 100 supposed to be "this week's most popular songs". Not the most profitable. Who’s to say profitability isn’t a measure of popularity? Like, I said: "If 100 people pay $5 to listen to Song A. And 1000 people pay 10 cents to listen to song B. Then Song B is more popular, while Song A is more profitable." In today's industry, that simplification is probably pretty true to life. I think "popularity" is definitely meant to be defined in this sense as the amount of times a song is being played/listened to, or the amount of people listening. |
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J. Rob
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Post by J. Rob on May 19, 2018 23:26:22 GMT -5
I'm trying to understand how anyone has a problem with streaming dominating....is there a better indicator of who's listening to what than streaming?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 6:25:41 GMT -5
ayy what do we have here
final predictions by simmnfierzig (had to copy paste that lmao)
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filthy
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Post by filthy on May 20, 2018 6:58:14 GMT -5
He said that he doesn't expect Sangira Wine to chart lol
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 7:00:19 GMT -5
He said that he doesn't expect Sangira Wine to chart lol I mean it was released in the middle of the tracking week lmao. oof |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 7:29:09 GMT -5
Lots of new peaks and debuts.
Also excited for Boo’d Up almost making the top 10.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on May 20, 2018 7:38:44 GMT -5
Like, I said: "If 100 people pay $5 to listen to Song A. And 1000 people pay 10 cents to listen to song B. Then Song B is more popular, while Song A is more profitable." In today's industry, that simplification is probably pretty true to life. In your opinion. I'm not sure I'd agree song B in your example is more popular. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on May 20, 2018 7:46:35 GMT -5
What's happening with Psycho? I thought it would free fall after the album release week, but it's gaining 1.5-2.5M daily on radio, it's #4 on both Apple Music (up from ~#10), YouTube and Spotify. I'm not mad because I love the song, but it sucks that Psycho didn't have these airplay/Apple Music gains two week ago. Why? It's still not going to pass "NFW" this week. |
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dynamac
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Post by dynamac on May 20, 2018 8:02:36 GMT -5
ayy what do we have here final predictions by simmnfierzig (had to copy paste that lmao) YES JUICE WRLD SHOULD FINALLY DEBUT |
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Post by Golden Bluebird on May 20, 2018 8:08:44 GMT -5
kworb.net/airadio/*** = Dropped or added a format Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/05/201. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (166.218) (-0.450) 2. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (153.575) (-0.406) 3. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (150.979) (-2.742) 4. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (149.384) (-1.272) 5. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (128.230) (+0.687) 6. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (111.673) (-0.424) 7. (=) DRAKE - Nice For What (107.546) (+1.402) 8. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (105.997) (+1.941) 9. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (100.011) (-2.108) *** 10. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (95.815) (+1.292) 11. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (85.298) (-0.481) 12. (=) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (84.596) (+0.966) 13. (=) BRUNO MARS & CARDI B - Finesse (79.234) (-1.571) 14. (+1) MAX - Lights Down Low (78.853) (+0.095) 15. (-1) BAZZI - Mine (78.783) (-0.208) 16. (=) KANE BROWN - Heaven (73.453) (-0.683) 17. (+1) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (73.152) (+1.730) 18. (-1) BLOCBOY JB - Look Alive f/Drake (72.067) (-0.852) 19. (=) LUKE COMBS - One Number Away (69.502) (+0.528) 20. (+1) DARIUS RUCKER - For The First Time (66.242) (+0.538) Outside the Top 20: 21. (+1) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (65.989) (+1.074) 25. (+1) MARSHMELLO & ANNE-MARIE - Friends (61.844) (+1.725) *** 32. (+4) MIGOS - Walk It Talk It f/Drake (50.026) (+1.614) 40. (+2) CHARLIE PUTH - Done For Me f/Kehlani (45.311) (+1.093)
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on May 20, 2018 8:08:52 GMT -5
Another week in the Top 10 for NBTS.
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Someone
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Post by Someone on May 20, 2018 8:16:59 GMT -5
Looks like Say Something might not make year end :/
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Post by Mayman on May 20, 2018 8:21:38 GMT -5
He said that he doesn't expect Sangira Wine to chart lol How would it be able to chart if it was released Friday and has only been out for less than 72 hours? |
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Post by Mayman on May 20, 2018 8:21:55 GMT -5
He said that he doesn't expect Sangira Wine to chart lol I mean it was released in the middle of the tracking week lmao. oof It was released Friday morning. |
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filthy
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Post by filthy on May 20, 2018 8:24:20 GMT -5
Oh yeah that's right, forgot that  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 8:24:22 GMT -5
Wow, Boo'd Up might go top 10. Nice!
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on May 20, 2018 8:53:35 GMT -5
Looks like Say Something might not make year end :/ Whats with everybody's obsession with this song making the year end lol. Its not even the best song titled "say something" |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on May 20, 2018 9:02:52 GMT -5
Ask Billboard: Childish Gambino's First Hot 100 Top 10 Is a No. 1 – Is that a Rare Feat?
5/20/2018 by Gary Trust
Plus, Drake, J. Cole & Post Malone's historic hits.
Submit questions about Billboard charts, as well as general music musings, to askbb@billboard.com. Please include your first and last name, as well as your city, state and country, if outside the U.S. Or, tweet @gthot20. Also, interact via the Chart Beat Podcast's new listener hotline – 212-493-4021 – and you could hear your question played back and answered in an upcoming episode!
'THIS IS' CHILDISH GAMBINO'S FIRST TOP 10, AND No. 1
Hi Gary,
It's simply fantastic that Childish Gambino's "This Is America" has debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 (dated May 19). Thanks for pointing out that it's the first all-out socially-themed leader in some time. Of course, one could say that Drake's "Nice for What" is somewhat about female financial independence, or that Camila Cabello's "Havana," featuring Young Thug, winks at the Dreamers.
Meanwhile, when Donald Glover (aka, Gambino) was interviewed by Jimmy Kimmel May 11, Glover cited The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill as a key inspiration. "It's kind of flawless," he said. Given that one of the set's most notable tracks, "Ex-Factor," considers reciprocity, and is sampled heavily in Drake's "Nice," how appropriate that Drake's hit (now at No. 2), powered in part by Hill's sample, has made way for Gambino's first No. 1. After all, part of the point of Gambino's song is that reciprocity is too uncommon in the U.S.
Also, given that Gambino/Glover's new No. 1 is truly of the moment, covering themes that are political and social; that it doesn't sample another recording; and, that it was written and recorded by a well-known star who already has earned Grammy Awards approval, could it become the first rap song to win record of the year?
So happy for the amazing artist and human named Donald Glover. Ah, hope for "America" again.
deleted Nelson
Oakland, California
Thanks deleted. All great points about the song's most important elements.
Since you've covered those, I'll take the quirky chart stat angle. One of the more intriguing aspects in that regard is that "America" is not only Childish Gambino's first Hot 100 No. 1, but his first top 10, as he had previously peaked as high as No. 12, with "Redbone" in 2017.
Is that a rare achievement, topping the Hot 100 with a first top 10?
The prior five Hot 100 No. 1s, for instance, were all by lead artists who, unlike Gambino this week, had previously hit the top 10: Drake's "Nice" and "God's Plan"; Cabello's "Havana"; Ed Sheeran's "Perfect"; and, Post Malone's "Rockstar" (featuring 21 Savage).
Before that, Cardi B last did what Gambino has done this week: crown the Hot 100 in a first visit to the top 10, as her debut hit, "Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)," led for three weeks in October 2017.
Still, if we narrow down the category to lead artists who, like Gambino but unlike Cardi B, had previously hit the Hot 100 but not the top 10 and then soared to No. 1 in a first visit to the tier, we have to go back two more leaders before "Bodak Yellow."
Beginning last May 27, Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee's "Despacito," featuring Justin Bieber, began its record-tying 16-week reign. Previously, Fonsi had charted no higher than No. 90, with "Nada Es Para Siempre," back in 2005. (He had hit the Hot 100 just once more since, reaching No. 92 with "No Me Doy Por Vencido" in 2008.) As with Gambino, Daddy Yankee had climbed as high as No. 12 before earning his first top 10, as featured (with Nina Sky, Gem Star and Big Mato) on N.O.R.E.'s "Oye Mi Canto" in 2004.
Before "Despacito," one of Glover's favorite acts, Migos, last achieved the feat, when "Bad and Boujee," featuring Lil Uzi Vert, led for three weeks starting Jan. 21, 2017. The trio had logged a prior No. 69 best with "Fight Night" in 2014.
So, of the 14 Hot 100 No. 1s since the start of 2017, only four belong to lead artists who had not previously visited the top 10.
Going back further, 10 songs led in 2016, with three by lead acts in the top 10 for the first time: Zayn (of course, formerly of One Direction, which had scored four top 10s while he was a member), Desiigner and Rae Sremmurd.
In 2015, eight songs topped the Hot 100, with two by top 10 rookie lead acts: Mark Ronson and OMI.
And, 2014 was relatively more welcoming to such artists, as, of the year's nine No. 1s, four were by lead acts earning their first top 10s with those hits: John Legend (who notched his first No. 1 and top 10, "All of Me," after 10 years of appearing on the chart), Iggy Azalea, MAGIC! and Meghan Trainor.
Overall, 13 of the past 42 Hot 100 No. 1s since the start of 2014, or 31 percent, have belonged to, like Childish Gambino, artists earning first No. 1s with their first top 10s.
If there's a lesson to be learned from this stat, it's that a prior history of top 10s often helps set up an artist's Hot 100 coronation. Still, sometimes (roughly three out of 10 times), the right song can simply connect and send an act all the way to the top regardless of an artist's track record.
Or, per the latter pattern, to quote the recipient of the prestigious Icon Award at tonight's Billboard Music Awards, mainstream success can be, as "This Is America" reflects this week, a matter of, what have you done for me lately.
IGGY, ARIANA, DRAKE, J. COLE & POST MALONE
Dear Gary,
I noticed something interesting in the Hot 100's top 10 last week (on the chart dated May 12) and the week before (May 5).
Last week, two acts, Drake and Post Malone, each charted three songs in the top 10 simultaneously. Drake appeared with his own "Nice for What" (No. 1) and "God's Plan" (No. 3) and as featured on BlocBoy JB's "Look Alive" (No. 9). Meanwhile, Post Malone charted with "Psycho," featuring Ty Dolla $ign (No. 2), "Better Now" (No. 7) and "Rockstar," featuring 21 Savage (No. 8).
The previous week, Drake's three hits ranked at Nos. 1, 2 and 9, respectively, while J. Cole jumped in at Nos. 6 ("ATM"), 8 ("Kevin's Heart") and 10 ("KOD"), all new entries on the Hot 100, marking the first time that an act had debuted three top 10s in the same week.
Prior to those two weeks, had that happened before: two acts each scoring three Hot 100 top 10s in the same week?
Thanks,
Raditya Gunardisurya
Jakarta, Indonesia
Hi Raditya,
One prior week in the Hot 100's 59-year history found a pair of acts each earning three simultaneous top 10s, but one component of the achievement makes the May 5 and 12-dated charts different from the first such instance.
These artists first tripled up in the top 10 together on the Hot 100 dated Aug. 30, 2014:
Ariana Grande
No. 4, "Break Free," feat. Zedd
No. 7, "Problem," feat. Iggy Azalea
No. 10, "Bang Bang," Jessie J, Grande & Nicki Minaj
Iggy Azalea
No. 5, "Fancy," feat. Charli XCX
No. 7, "Problem," Grande feat. Azalea
No. 8, "Black Widow," feat. Rita Ora
The difference between that week and this month's feats? Grande and Azalea shared one of those top 10s: "Problem." Thus, the May 5 and 12-dated Hot 100s mark the first and second times that two acts each charted three top 10s simultaneously while accounting for a hefty six songs in each week, thanks to Cole, Post Malone and, aptly, the 6 God.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on May 20, 2018 9:09:56 GMT -5
What's happening with Psycho? I thought it would free fall after the album release week, but it's gaining 1.5-2.5M daily on radio, it's #4 on both Apple Music (up from ~#10), YouTube and Spotify. I'm not mad because I love the song, but it sucks that Psycho didn't have these airplay/Apple Music gains two week ago. Why? It's still not going to pass "NFW" this week. It's not supposed to pass NFW, but I'm surprised it's kinda close to God's Plan and has a huge advantage over Meant To Be. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on May 20, 2018 9:13:42 GMT -5
Looks like Say Something might not make year end :/ Whats with everybody's obsession with this song making the year end lol. Its not even the best song titled "say something" Personally a huge fan of year-end charts in December and January. In my opinion less year end charts are less relevant in the middle of May |
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on May 20, 2018 9:17:49 GMT -5
Looks like Say Something might not make year end :/ How's that ? It's predicted to be in the 91-100 this week. |
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on May 20, 2018 9:48:46 GMT -5
"The future number one smash, song of the summer" debuts at 49 on US Spotify with just over 510k. oh my god were people actually saying this would smash would pop radio even play Sangria Wine it's such a weird broken song it sounds like it wants to murder me The Radio eats up every song Camila has put out for some reason she could just have a song about taking a 💩 and the radio would play that song it's kinda baffling at this point to say the least. |
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on May 20, 2018 9:50:54 GMT -5
oh my god were people actually saying this would smash would pop radio even play Sangria Wine it's such a weird broken song it sounds like it wants to murder me The Radio eats up every song Camila has put out for some reason she could just have a song about taking a 💩 and the radio would play that song it's kinda baffling at this point to say the least. That's the case with Maroon 5 or Shawn Mendes...Camila only had like 2 singles |
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