Billboard Hot 100: 6/23/2018

[Enigma.]

Any other song that NFW needs to have gigantic streaming #s as NFW itself will see a phenomenal boost

[Mayman]

Jun 14, 2018 0:14:46 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Jun 13, 2018 23:48:28 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Drakes I'M Upset mv is trending right now, do you guys think it could make top ten?

I'm Upset will prob sneak #8 next week, WITI style.

I hope so!

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format

Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/06/14
1. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (159.242) (-0.106)
2. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (140.349) (-0.163)
3. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (132.310) (-1.831)
4. (=) DRAKE - Nice For What (121.561) (+0.194)
5. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (118.454) (-1.295)
6. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (114.551) (-1.005)
7. (+1) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (103.883) (+1.813)
8. (-1) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (99.921) (-2.844)
9. (+1) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (99.657) (+1.870)
10. (+1) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (98.737) (+1.266)
11. (-2) MAROON 5 - Wait (98.072) (-2.558)
12. (=) BAZZI - Mine (97.947) (+1.099)
13. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (85.246) (-0.163)
14. (=) MARSHMELLO & ANNE-MARIE - Friends (82.742) (+1.304)
15. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (76.242) (-0.259)
16. (=) MAX - Lights Down Low (74.948) (-0.964)
17. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (71.126) (-1.255)
18. (=) DIERKS BENTLEY - Woman, Amen (66.824) (-1.427)
19. (=) LUKE COMBS - One Number Away (66.672) (-0.093)
20. (=) ELLA MAI - Boo'd Up (66.063) (+1.267)

Outside the Top 20:
21. (=) DAVID LEE MURPHY/KENNY CHESNEY - Everything's Gonna Be Alright (65.402) (+1.075)
22. (+4) CARDI B - I Like It (61.537) (+3.858)
31. (+2) MORGAN WALLEN - Up Down f/Florida Georgia Line (55.599) (+1.123)
62. (+4) MAROON 5 - Girls Like You (32.632) (+3.030)

[chartslovergermany]

Ariana,CardiB, Taylor and Drake on the rise:)

[annoymous1]

Cardi B is coming for the Top 20!!!!

[lazer]

Holy crap! The airplay for "I Like It" is increasing very fast!

[kcdawg13]

Jun 14, 2018 6:51:42 GMT -5 chartslovergermany said:

I even think he can almost get the entire top 10/20 for himself,like Ed Sheeran almost did too in the Uk(divide album release week). There's a chance to do so,but which if his song will be at #1 after his album release?NFW,Gods Plan?or another song from the album?

I definitely think he could get 5 or 6 songs in the Top 10, idk if it's possible to get all 10 spots but it's the streaming era and if the album is big enough it could happen, he's gonna take Post's record for most songs in the Top 20 for sure. Scorpion is definitely doing 1 million first week but I think Drake could probably pull 2 million tbh.

We might be overestimating Drake, but I really underestimated Views and that album exceeded my expectations commercially. Guess we'll see in a couple weeks.

[iHype.]

Jun 14, 2018 10:44:31 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Jun 14, 2018 6:51:42 GMT -5 chartslovergermany said:

I even think he can almost get the entire top 10/20 for himself,like Ed Sheeran almost did too in the Uk(divide album release week). There's a chance to do so,but which if his song will be at #1 after his album release?NFW,Gods Plan?or another song from the album?

I definitely think he could get 5 or 6 songs in the Top 10, idk if it's possible to get all 10 spots but it's the streaming era and if the album is big enough it could happen, he's gonna take Post's record for most songs in the Top 20 for sure. Scorpion is definitely doing 1 million first week but I think Drake could probably pull 2 million tbh.

We might be overestimating Drake, but I really underestimated Views and that album exceeded my expectations commercially. Guess we'll see in a couple weeks.

This is setting him up lol. Pure sales are dead for Rap demographics.

I think something like 450-550k Sales & 750-900k SPS is realistic imo.

Views did 852K sales first week and the sales market has basically evaporated since. 450K would be great. 

Then 300-450K in streams would be 450-675 million streams, which would seem likely considering:

Views (2016) - 245 million streams first week
More Life (2017) - 385 million streams first week

[kindofbiased]

I think Drake could easily get 1 million with SPS, he's not gonna get it with pure sales tho

[Mayman]

How many streams is one album unit?

[kanfad]

Easily? This is what im afraid of. That when Scorpion sells about 850k sps first week, I'll have to start defending the biggest first week of the year because it wasnt big enough.
I get that expectations are high but there's nothing wrong with making most of the money instead of all of it

[korbel16]

Scorpion is being released the first week of billboard’s rule change. Will it help him or hurt him in beating records/ some of his songs in the top 10

[kanfad]

Jun 14, 2018 11:50:41 GMT -5 Mayman said:

How many streams is one album unit?

Starting june 29, Its going to be 1250 : 1 from paid streaming services and 3750 : 1 from free/ad supported ones. 

Since 80% of fw streams come from paid streaming services, it should result in about a 10% bump in first week sps figures for most albums

[Mayman]

Jun 14, 2018 11:54:35 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Scorpion is being released the first week of billboard’s rule change. Will it help him or hurt him in beating records/ some of his songs in the top 10

I'm not sure. I think it won't effect him too much. He isn't very big on YouTube, but still big nonetheless. He had a much larger audience on Apple Music and Spotify.

[Mayman]

Jun 14, 2018 11:56:58 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 14, 2018 11:50:41 GMT -5 Mayman said:

How many streams is one album unit?

Starting june 29, Its going to be 1250 : 1 from paid streaming services and 3750 : 1 from free/ad supported ones. 

Since 80% of fw streams come from paid streaming services, it should result in about a 10% bump in first week sps figures for most albums

Thanks.

[kanfad]

Jun 14, 2018 11:54:35 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Scorpion is being released the first week of billboard’s rule change. Will it help him or hurt him in beating records/ some of his songs in the top 10

Help, especially on the hot 100.

I remember a report that says Gods Plan did 14mil streams in its first 24 hours on Apple Music. Thats the worldwide figure but assuming 60% came from the US, thats ~8 mil streams which towers its biggest day on spotify ( 4.7)

[Enigma.]

Jun 14, 2018 11:53:49 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Easily? This is what im afraid of. That when Scorpion sells about 850k sps first week, I'll have to start defending the biggest first week of the year because it wasnt big enough.
I get that expectations are high but there's nothing wrong with making most of the money instead of all of it

Taylor Swift and her fans had to do exactly that last year

[filthy]

Radio is really fond of Cardi B it looks like

[inverse]

Do we really think Drake is gonna pull an Ed Sheeran UK? I honestly doubt it, I get he's big and all but nobody likes I'm Upset, that was a slip-up, and his last album bomb only had four songs debut top 30. I think this one might have six or seven top 30 songs

[Deleted]

I don't think anyone is gonna pull Divide UK chart numbers, that's an unrealistic goal for the Hot 100. It's easier to do on the UK charts because no radio. I still fully expect Drake to set a new top 10 record though.

[Glove Slap]

Ed's most impressive chart crash was in Ireland, where the 16 tracks from his album were the top 16 songs on the chart that week. I don't see Drake doing that due to the setup of the Hot 100 either, but he'll take the records for most top 10s, top 20s, and top 40s.

[kanfad]

Jun 14, 2018 13:23:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

Do we really think Drake is gonna pull an Ed Sheeran UK? I honestly doubt it, I get he's big and all but nobody likes I'm Upset, that was a slip-up, and his last album bomb only had four songs debut top 30. I think this one might have six or seven top 30 songs

I like "im upset" , just wish it wasnt a single tho. He obviously wont be able to do what Ed did since Ed was only able to pull that due to radio not being a metric in uk charts

And i think you're forgetting that More life had 22 songs on there. Hopefully that isnt happening with this one

[Gary]

For what its worth, radio is not much of a metric here either

[Mayman]

I hope I'm Upset can either get top 10 this week or album release week. I know I'm in the minority but I think it's a good song.

[filthy]

Jun 14, 2018 14:10:41 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 14, 2018 13:23:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

Do we really think Drake is gonna pull an Ed Sheeran UK? I honestly doubt it, I get he's big and all but nobody likes I'm Upset, that was a slip-up, and his last album bomb only had four songs debut top 30. I think this one might have six or seven top 30 songs

I like "im upset" , just wish it wasnt a single tho. He obviously wont be able to do what Ed did since Ed was only able to pull that due to radio not being a metric in uk charts

And i think you're forgetting that More life had 22 songs on there. Hopefully that isnt happening with this one

More Life was also a mixtape. Scorpion isn't (as far as I know)

[dynamac]

Jun 14, 2018 15:55:56 GMT -5 filthy said:

Jun 14, 2018 14:10:41 GMT -5 kanfad said:

I like "im upset" , just wish it wasnt a single tho. He obviously wont be able to do what Ed did since Ed was only able to pull that due to radio not being a metric in uk charts

And i think you're forgetting that More life had 22 songs on there. Hopefully that isnt happening with this one

More Life was also a mixtape. Scorpion isn't (as far as I know)

Technically it was a playlist

[filthy]

Jun 14, 2018 15:59:33 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Jun 14, 2018 15:55:56 GMT -5 filthy said:

More Life was also a mixtape. Scorpion isn't (as far as I know)

Technically it was a playlist

Well Drake himself calls it a playlist, but most publications have referred to it as a mixtape

[velaxti]

Jun 14, 2018 11:54:35 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Scorpion is being released the first week of billboard’s rule change. Will it help him or hurt him in beating records/ some of his songs in the top 10

I think it will help him for the Hot 100, because a lot of his competition for top 10 spots (e.g. Boo'd Up, I Like It, Girls Like You, maybe even Psycho) do better on Youtube than on paid On-Demand streaming. Whilst his album tracks will do overwhelmingly better on paid On-Demand streaming than on Youtube.

However, I don't know if Billboard will change the weight of streams to counteract the the change to streaming. If they don't, then the sales and airplay dominant songs will do a bit better in comparison to now.

It would be interesting if someone could estimate what last week's top 10 would have looked like with the new rules? I think the data for the proportion of people who pay for Spotify subscriptions is out there somewhere. We don't know if there would be significant differences between the listening habits of the people who pay and the people who use it for free, but you could go under the assumption that the most popular songs would be almost the same between each group for simplicity's sake.

I actually reckon it won't make a massive difference overall.

[CF15]

I'm very surprised that "I Like It" probably won't be #1 this week, given how weak the points are for "Psycho" and "Nice For What" and the fact that "I Like It" is gaining in points. Soon enough, #1 songs will be weaker in terms of points than any top ten hits a few years ago.

[fhas]

Jun 14, 2018 16:55:17 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Jun 14, 2018 11:54:35 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Scorpion is being released the first week of billboard’s rule change. Will it help him or hurt him in beating records/ some of his songs in the top 10

I think it will help him for the Hot 100, because a lot of his competition for top 10 spots (e.g. Boo'd Up, I Like It, Girls Like You, maybe even Psycho) do better on Youtube than on paid On-Demand streaming. Whilst his album tracks will do overwhelmingly better on paid On-Demand streaming than on Youtube.

However, I don't know if Billboard will change the weight of streams to counteract the the change to streaming. If they don't, then the sales and airplay dominant songs will do a bit better in comparison to now.

It would be interesting if someone could estimate what last week's top 10 would have looked like with the new rules? I think the data for the proportion of people who pay for Spotify subscriptions is out there somewhere. We don't know if there would be significant differences between the listening habits of the people who pay and the people who use it for free, but you could go under the assumption that the most popular songs would be almost the same between each group for simplicity's sake.

I actually reckon it won't make a massive difference overall.

1. (=) Psycho 32,100 (36,000 with the current formula)
2. (=) Nice For What 31,000 (34,200)
3. (+2) God's Plan 26,000 (29,100)
4. (=) Girls Like You 25,900 (29,700)
5. (-2) I Like It 25,100 (29,700)
6. (+4) The Middle 23,400 (24,900)
7. (+1) Yikes 22,600 (25,000)
8. (+3) All Mine 22,500 (24,900)
9. (+3) Meant To Be 22,300 (24,500)
10. (-3) This Is America 21,100 (26,100)

11. (-5) Boo'd Up 21,000 (26,300)
12. (+1) No Tears Left To Cry 20,900 (23,300)
13. (-4) Lucid Dreams 19,900 (25,000)
14. (+1) Yes Indeed 19,000 (22,100)
15. (-1) FRIENDS 18,400 (22,100)
16. (=) Ghost Town 18,100 (20,100)

Spotify: 67% paid / 33% free (source: HDD)
Other On-Demand services: 90% paid / 10% free (just an estimative because SoundCloud is the only other hybrid on-demand service and it's not that popular)

On-demand paid: streams/1,500
YouTube/On-demand free: streams/2,500
Programmed: streams/3,000

I'm also assuming that Billboard won't increase sales or radio influence and that'd result in a 10-12% decrease in points for all the songs. I wonder if they're going to adjust the points for the Year-end chart.