Billboard Hot 100: 7/07/2018

[Sherane Lamar]

Does "Love Is Everything" on the charts remind anybody else of "Justice League" at the box office?

[Golden Bluebird]

I'm not really surprised the X songs aren't dropping all that significantly considering his streaming numbers are still pretty strong. That said, it does slightly disappoint me that "SAD!" won't break the record for biggest drop from #1 that I brought up in the last Hot 100 thread.

[Angel]

Jun 26, 2018 17:12:03 GMT -5 Golden Bluebird said:

Delicate a certifiable HIT huh... I remember seeing people all across the internet talking shit and saying it would flop. Truly the Wildest Dreams of the reputation era. 

[Deleted]

Jun 26, 2018 10:33:48 GMT -5 renaboss said:

As for the Taylor talk, "Getaway Car" would be my choice for fifth single. Less immature, and seems more adequate for the summer somehow. Always been a favorite of mine as well. I adore "Don't Blame Me" and "King of My Heart", but it's hard to picture music videos for those songs, whereas with "Getaway Car" the visuals come more naturally.

Gotta say though, ugh at her single choices. I may like all the songs, but "Look What You Made Me Do", "...Ready for It?", "End Game" and "Delicate" are, in my opinion, very meh. Not to mention "Gorgeous" and "Call It What You Want", the other two songs she released in advance to promote the album, which are some of its most boring tracks. The album itself feels a little subpar, and then she goes and (barely) promotes its worst songs.

CIWYW is the best song on the album......

[kanfad]

Jun 26, 2018 17:18:02 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Does "Love Is Everything" on the charts remind anybody else of "Justice League" at the box office?

Underwhelming response coming from acclaimed previous chapter(s) + underwhelming opening week(nd) of what was supposed to be the final chapter of a trilogy + dropping like a rock + unable to connect with the GP or even most of its core audience.

Yup pretty much

[kanfad]

Jun 26, 2018 18:02:39 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Jun 26, 2018 10:33:48 GMT -5 renaboss said:

As for the Taylor talk, "Getaway Car" would be my choice for fifth single. Less immature, and seems more adequate for the summer somehow. Always been a favorite of mine as well. I adore "Don't Blame Me" and "King of My Heart", but it's hard to picture music videos for those songs, whereas with "Getaway Car" the visuals come more naturally.

Gotta say though, ugh at her single choices. I may like all the songs, but "Look What You Made Me Do", "...Ready for It?", "End Game" and "Delicate" are, in my opinion, very meh. Not to mention "Gorgeous" and "Call It What You Want", the other two songs she released in advance to promote the album, which are some of its most boring tracks. The album itself feels a little subpar, and then she goes and (barely) promotes its worst songs.

CIWYW is the best song on the album......

Getaway Car and Dont Blame Me strongly disagree

[Mayman]

What does simm mean when he put "not allowed to go recurrent" next to IDGAF?

[kanfad]

Jun 26, 2018 18:36:30 GMT -5 Mayman said:

What does simm mean when he put "not allowed to go recurrent" next to IDGAF?

Still gaining in points?

[nickd]

I guess xxxtentacion's streams were low for the first few days of last week before his death. So even though the daily streams are lower than in the first couple days after his death they're still significantly higher than before his death.

[aussie1]

How is the Middle still gaining on radio?!? The song came out when, like February March?

[lazer]

Meant To Be needs to go away.

[velaxti]

Jun 26, 2018 19:07:31 GMT -5 lazer said:

Meant To Be needs to go away.

With the talk about Taylor Swift, she could get #1s if she released songs like this. It's really difficult to get country pop and HAC crossovers but Taylor could do it easily and get really high AIs with each single.

[rimetm]

Jun 26, 2018 18:36:30 GMT -5 Mayman said:

What does simm mean when he put "not allowed to go recurrent" next to IDGAF?

These past few weeks, he kept pegging it as going recurrent since it was below the top 50. However, it's allowed to stay as long as airplay is gaining, so even if it drops a position or two next week, it's still good, so he gives up trying to guess when it'll go recurrent.

[lazer]

Jun 26, 2018 19:14:03 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Jun 26, 2018 19:07:31 GMT -5 lazer said:

Meant To Be needs to go away.

With the talk about Taylor Swift, she could get #1s if she released songs like this. It's really difficult to get country pop and HAC crossovers but Taylor could do it easily and get really high AIs with each single.

Taylor Swift's country stuff is far superior than Meant To Be.

[renaboss]

"Babe" flopped and it's a pretty cool song.

[nickd]

Jun 26, 2018 3:13:06 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

You're right. Anything following up 1989 was gonna have a hard time living up to that.

But I was expecting better than *this*.

I think this may be her worst singles era ever. But I'm not sure. IDK what other songs go where.

LWYMMD had a great first few weeks. And then it couldn't spend more than 20 weeks on the Hot 100 and went recurrent.

All in all Rep era is looking very similar in success level to Speak Now. LWYMMD had higher peak and Mine had better longevity so they even out to being about equally big.

Racpro Hot 100 points

Look What You Made Me Do: 2065
Mine: 1956
Back To December: 1429
Ready For It: 1231
Mean: 1096
Ours: 1057
Sparks Fly: 847
Delicate: 821
End Game: 708
The Story of Us: 315

I would say Reputation slightly outsold Speak Now when you adjust for industry wide sales decline (but still behind Red, Fearless and 1989) and its chart run out the Billboard 200 has been pretty similar so far. Reputation had more international success but Speak Now was still a bit country-ish. Bigger tour but that's also riding off her success from the last 12 years.

Anyways, she said that now that she got certain things out of her system with Reputation she can go back to writing "normal songs" again so her next release will probably be less polarizing.

As for Rihanna, I think she'll do ok. Maybe not as big as ANTI but probably still better than Rated R.

[Abbaschand]

Jun 26, 2018 17:18:02 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Does "Love Is Everything" on the charts remind anybody else of "Justice League" at the box office?

It's a FREAKING BEYONCE & JAY-Z ALBUM. How Apecrap didn't debut at #1 is really baffling me. It's BEYONCE AND JAY-Z!

[nickd]

Jun 26, 2018 4:28:52 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Yeah, Reputation era has basically been literally 100% her core fanbase supporting. The era just wasn't big with the actual public.

LWYMMD was a few-week phenomenon, RFI/End Game never took off, and Delicate is eating up radio but it's not doing impressive on sales/streams especially for her standard.  The album itself had less longevity than any of her other projects obviously and did 80% of its activity within the first month.

It's amazing she still managed to have a 3x Platinum album (and is currently the #1 album in the Billboard Year) in her career low though after 6 albums. I always say this, but she really is up there as the most dominant female ever in America success wise. Her career consistency is just unparalleled.

Next era she will definitely need to put that new-image back in the closet, write some classics, and rebuild her brand again though. Especially with sales disappearing, and the streaming performance she's had this era. She will truly have her first 'career flop' if she manages to continue to be shunned by the GP next era.

Tbh... considering Reputation's tour is going to possibly be the biggest ever tour in North America, idk why she didn't do tour bundles for the album or maybe become the first to do it for a song. It would've really helped her stats this era. Especially considering she got so much negative publicity for her ticket prices, making her fans buy expensive merch to get tickets first, etc -- the least she coulda did was throw in some music with ticket sales.

Delicate's doing fine on Spotify for a late era single, on par if not better than what you'd expect from the biggest established streaming artists. As for the album sales being frontloaded, I don't think it's reasonable to expect Taylor to sell 200k-300k for weeks on end when today's biggest artists can't get 100k pure sales on their 2nd week. Just because she was selling like it's 2006 on her first week, doesn't mean we should expect to sell like it's 2006 on her 2nd month. She had incentives for fans to buy her albums on the first week that didn't exist for her previous albums and the customer base for sales in her later weeks are the more casual fans that are much less likely to buy albums than they were even in the 1989 era. It'll be interesting to see how Scorpion does as a sign of how sales changed in the last couple years since it'll most likely have the biggest debut week of 2018.

2nd week pure sales
DAMN: 89k
%: 87k
Greatest Showman: 78k
From a Room Vol 1: 66k
4:44: 61k
Revival: 56k
Man of the Woods: 54k
Beautiful Trauma: 53k
Live In No Shoes Nation: 51k
More Life: 43k
From a Room Vol 2: 43k
Thrill of it All: 33k
Songs of Experience: 33k
Invasion of Privacy: 26k
Rearview Town: 24k
Beerbongs & Bentleys: 24k
KOD: 21k

Taylor Swift - reputation
2nd week: 232k
3rd week: 131k
4th week: 70k
5th week: 68k
6th week: 105k
7th week: 79k

You can't really expect streaming to make up for that either, especially when so many fans bought her album in the first 3 weeks. The first week sales are equivalent to about 2 billion streams.

I agree that reputation was definitely not as big as 1989 but it still didn't do bad, especially since tbh she didn't really try to promote to the GP. Aside from lack of public appearances she'd have to have a more streaming focused approach since that's increasingly how the GP discovers music. Her approach this era was definitely much more focused on getting a really big 1st week.

[Au$tin]

Jun 26, 2018 19:24:06 GMT -5 renaboss said:

"Babe" flopped and it's a pretty cool song.

It's #27 on country airplay and rising still. Country songs don't tend to explode out of the gate, they usually have longer shelf lives with moderate to slow climbs. The only exceptions are lead single from the superstars like Carrie Underwood, Jason Aldean, and Luke Bryan, but even then they still don't act like a new release from a rap or pop artist, they still have a climb of sorts before reaching their peaks.

[Deleted]

Drakes album bomb will make I Like Me Better drop out of the top 50 cause it will be 50 weeks and then it will not make the Year End. :(

[hot100predictions]

I don't know if any in the chat know Tyler Blevins or Ninja, the most popular Fortnite Twitch streamer or not. But he has played Fortnite matches with Drake before, and will likely stream Drake's entire album Friday on his stream. He typically gets between 100-150k viewers each minute on his stream. All these people watching his stream: factor in viralness at state, county and town fairs, 4th of July parties, shows, listening parties and more and Drake may easily have a HISTORIC debut week on the Billboard 200. If he releases a MV or a LV on the day of the release on any of the tracks and it takes off on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and now even Pandora, it will likely debut top 5 if not #1. This will be a huge week, and I can't barely wait for the release, I've been in anticipation for the album since Nice For What!

[thabb]

Jun 26, 2018 22:32:05 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Drakes album bomb will make I Like Me Better drop out of the top 50 cause it will be 50 weeks and then it will not make the Year End.

GOOD. bye-bye! will never understand why that song has managed to stick around for so long, even after it died on streaming. it's not a bad song but i just find it odd how T40M radio is still spinning it

[Au$tin]

Jun 26, 2018 22:32:05 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Drakes album bomb will make I Like Me Better drop out of the top 50 cause it will be 50 weeks and then it will not make the Year End. :(

The song is still gaining in its key format, so Billboard likely won't send it to recurrency. It's #9 on pop right with a healthy bullet over 600. Today's daily update was a +125. No way they send it to recurrency with that happening, much like IDGAF.

[iHype.]

Jun 26, 2018 22:17:53 GMT -5 nickd said:

Jun 26, 2018 4:28:52 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Yeah, Reputation era has basically been literally 100% her core fanbase supporting. The era just wasn't big with the actual public.

LWYMMD was a few-week phenomenon, RFI/End Game never took off, and Delicate is eating up radio but it's not doing impressive on sales/streams especially for her standard.  The album itself had less longevity than any of her other projects obviously and did 80% of its activity within the first month.

It's amazing she still managed to have a 3x Platinum album (and is currently the #1 album in the Billboard Year) in her career low though after 6 albums. I always say this, but she really is up there as the most dominant female ever in America success wise. Her career consistency is just unparalleled.

Next era she will definitely need to put that new-image back in the closet, write some classics, and rebuild her brand again though. Especially with sales disappearing, and the streaming performance she's had this era. She will truly have her first 'career flop' if she manages to continue to be shunned by the GP next era.

Tbh... considering Reputation's tour is going to possibly be the biggest ever tour in North America, idk why she didn't do tour bundles for the album or maybe become the first to do it for a song. It would've really helped her stats this era. Especially considering she got so much negative publicity for her ticket prices, making her fans buy expensive merch to get tickets first, etc -- the least she coulda did was throw in some music with ticket sales.

Delicate's doing fine on Spotify for a late era single, on par if not better than what you'd expect from the biggest established streaming artists. As for the album sales being frontloaded, I don't think it's reasonable to expect Taylor to sell 200k-300k for weeks on end when today's biggest artists can't get 100k pure sales on their 2nd week. Just because she was selling like it's 2006 on her first week, doesn't mean we should expect to sell like it's 2006 on her 2nd month. She had incentives for fans to buy her albums on the first week that didn't exist for her previous albums and the customer base for sales in her later weeks are the more casual fans that are much less likely to buy albums than they were even in the 1989 era. It'll be interesting to see how Scorpion does as a sign of how sales changed in the last couple years since it'll most likely have the biggest debut week of 2018.

2nd week pure sales
DAMN: 89k
%: 87k
Greatest Showman: 78k
From a Room Vol 1: 66k
4:44: 61k
Revival: 56k
Man of the Woods: 54k
Beautiful Trauma: 53k
Live In No Shoes Nation: 51k
More Life: 43k
From a Room Vol 2: 43k
Thrill of it All: 33k
Songs of Experience: 33k
Invasion of Privacy: 26k
Rearview Town: 24k
Beerbongs & Bentleys: 24k
KOD: 21k

Taylor Swift - reputation
2nd week: 232k
3rd week: 131k
4th week: 70k
5th week: 68k
6th week: 105k
7th week: 79k

You can't really expect streaming to make up for that either, especially when so many fans bought her album in the first 3 weeks. The first week sales are equivalent to about 2 billion streams.

I agree that reputation was definitely not as big as 1989 but it still didn't do bad, especially since tbh she didn't really try to promote to the GP. Aside from lack of public appearances she'd have to have a more streaming focused approach since that's increasingly how the GP discovers music. Her approach this era was definitely much more focused on getting a really big 1st week.

Taylor is on her own level of success with sales, comparing her to those artists makes no sense.

For example if Adele sells 2 million total with her next album, that will still be considered a huge downfall. She's coming off doing 10m with her previous, and 14m with the one with before that. Even if 2 million is higher than all those other artists you listed.

What's considered an underperformance/below par is a case-by-case basis. It's not the same with every artist.

Selling 500K might be amazing for a debut Pop artist, however for another Pop artist who sold millions with all their previous works that would be a large underperformance to much media and chart watchers.

Reputation finished at 2 million, while her 5 other albums have all done 4+ million. Even if you want to look at SPS since the sales market is decaying: Reputation topped out at 3 million, all her other albums have done atleast 6x Platinum. 

It was a hit album, but it easily underperformed for her career standards.

[nickd]

Jun 26, 2018 6:35:47 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

^delicate has sold 180k which is currently less than end game and far below 22. 22 was from a different sales climate but the comparison really isn’t good either way

Still Delicate will most likely outperform 22 on the Hot 100 and has already outperformed End Game in Hot 100 points. It'll probably be somewhere between a Back To December and Mine sized hit. Most likely bigger than White Horse, 22, Fifteen, Ready For It and Mean. End Game still benefited from being out before the album was released to Spotify which is when it got about 1/3 of its sales and its 3 biggest sales weeks.

Jun 26, 2018 9:16:51 GMT -5 chartslovergermany said:

Delicate overtook No Tears left to cry again

I love both songs so much,but it's so funny to see this^^

It's like a head on head race to the top of the overall radio charts,but it seems like I like it and maybe even girls like you would overtake them and block them off,I like all these 4 songs so I have no idea for which one I should run for



I'm expecting delicate to get a big jump after the Drake "bomb" maybe it has the chance to sneak a week in the top 10 or top 15 would make me happy too



What are your thoughts about delicate vs.NTLTC vs.GLY vs. I like it?

And do you think she has a chance to get a week in the top 10/15 after Drake's album bomb?

Hard call. I think Delicate will remain ahead of NTLTC in radio AI thanks to HAC/AC. Delicate's HAC AI and NTLTC's Pop AI will probably both peak in 2-3 weeks but after the growth potential for Delicate on Pop/AC is greater than for NTLTC on HAC/AC/Rhythmic IMO.

I Like It seems to be a bigger threat to Delicate than GLY which still has a lot of ground to cover and doesn't really have any additional formats. I Like It's AI is mostly from Pop/Rhythmic/Urban, it's HAC AI is tiny and Spanish/Latin are relatively small and/or slow growing. It grew 4.2M AI on Urban, 5.9M AI on Rhythmic and 7.9M AI on Pop in the last 7 days. Assuming it's headed for #1 on Urban & Rhythmic, that means at that rate it'll peak on Urban in 5 weeks and Rhythmic in 2.5-3 weeks. Assuming Delicate's headed for #1 on Pop and HAC, I Like It will overtake it when it's around 145-150M AI. Considering The Middle is rising on AC, almost stable on HAC, and dropping quite slowly on Pop, Delicate will probably pass it just as I Like It is about to pass both (~3 weeks from now) so it's a really tough call as to whether Delicate will get a chance at #1 AI.

I think Delicate could definitely get a week in top 10/15 after the album bomb. It has the lowest burn rate in callouts for all 3 of its radio formats so hopefully that translates to longevity on radio. I don't want to get ahead of myself too much and predict how long it will spend in the top 15 but I definitely think it will spend at least one week there.

I Like It will definitely be the Song of the Summer and probably spend the whole summer in the top 5 - much of it in the top 2.

Jun 26, 2018 10:33:48 GMT -5 renaboss said:

As for the Taylor talk, "Getaway Car" would be my choice for fifth single. Less immature, and seems more adequate for the summer somehow. Always been a favorite of mine as well. I adore "Don't Blame Me" and "King of My Heart", but it's hard to picture music videos for those songs, whereas with "Getaway Car" the visuals come more naturally.



Gotta say though, ugh at her single choices. I may like all the songs, but "Look What You Made Me Do", "...Ready for It?", "End Game" and "Delicate" are, in my opinion, very meh. Not to mention "Gorgeous" and "Call It What You Want", the other two songs she released in advance to promote the album, which are some of its most boring tracks. The album itself feels a little subpar, and then she goes and (barely) promotes its worst songs.

I think her next single will be a fall/winter song. Delicate will probably peak in August and chart in the top 50 through September. Don't Blame Me could be a sexy/passionate music video like I Don't Wanna Live Forever, Wildest Dreams, Style, Blank Space...

Jun 26, 2018 18:49:01 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

How is the Middle still gaining on radio?!? The song came out when, like February March?

Dropping slowly on Pop/HAC and rising on AC because AC is slow af.

Jun 26, 2018 19:24:06 GMT -5 renaboss said:

"Babe" flopped and it's a pretty cool song.

Maybe part of it is that I don't really like Jennifer Nettle's voice but I'd rank it below several of her debut era unreleased songs so she definitely has a lot of country-pop songs I like better.

Jun 26, 2018 23:39:22 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Jun 26, 2018 22:17:53 GMT -5 nickd said:

Delicate's doing fine on Spotify for a late era single, on par if not better than what you'd expect from the biggest established streaming artists. As for the album sales being frontloaded, I don't think it's reasonable to expect Taylor to sell 200k-300k for weeks on end when today's biggest artists can't get 100k pure sales on their 2nd week. Just because she was selling like it's 2006 on her first week, doesn't mean we should expect to sell like it's 2006 on her 2nd month. She had incentives for fans to buy her albums on the first week that didn't exist for her previous albums and the customer base for sales in her later weeks are the more casual fans that are much less likely to buy albums than they were even in the 1989 era. It'll be interesting to see how Scorpion does as a sign of how sales changed in the last couple years since it'll most likely have the biggest debut week of 2018.



2nd week pure sales

DAMN: 89k

%: 87k

Greatest Showman: 78k

From a Room Vol 1: 66k

4:44: 61k

Revival: 56k

Man of the Woods: 54k

Beautiful Trauma: 53k

Live In No Shoes Nation: 51k

More Life: 43k

From a Room Vol 2: 43k

Thrill of it All: 33k

Songs of Experience: 33k

Invasion of Privacy: 26k

Rearview Town: 24k

Beerbongs & Bentleys: 24k

KOD: 21k



Taylor Swift - reputation

2nd week: 232k

3rd week: 131k

4th week: 70k

5th week: 68k

6th week: 105k

7th week: 79k



You can't really expect streaming to make up for that either, especially when so many fans bought her album in the first 3 weeks. The first week sales are equivalent to about 2 billion streams.



I agree that reputation was definitely not as big as 1989 but it still didn't do bad, especially since tbh she didn't really try to promote to the GP. Aside from lack of public appearances she'd have to have a more streaming focused approach since that's increasingly how the GP discovers music. Her approach this era was definitely much more focused on getting a really big 1st week.

Taylor is on her own level of success with sales, comparing her to those artists makes no sense.



For example if Adele sells 2 million total with her next album, that will still be considered a huge downfall. She's coming off doing 10m with her previous, and 14m with the one with before that. Even if 2 million is higher than all those other artists you listed.



What's considered an underperformance/below par is a case-by-case basis. It's not the same with every artist.



Selling 500K might be amazing for a debut Pop artist, however for another Pop artist who sold millions with all their previous works that would be a large underperformance to much media and chart watchers.



Reputation finished at 2 million, while her 5 other albums have all done 4+ million. Even if you want to look at SPS since the sales market is decaying: Reputation topped out at 3 million, all her other albums have done atleast 6x Platinum. 



It was a hit album, but it easily underperformed for her career standards.

Underperformance by her standard - ok, even with the clumsy single roll out (and selection) and lack of promo, I'd agree it's a slight underperformance. But I wouldn't base that off the "frontloaded album sales" but rather on the underperformance of RFI and EG and frontloaded performance of LWYMMD.

[85la]

On another topic, I wonder why they haven't sent Boo'd Up to pop yet? It's been in the Hot 100 top ten for a while now and it seems like it would do really well there, and a lot of us on here love it, and we overall seem to be a pop-skewing audience. Or have they actually sent it there but it's not taking off at all? That would be really strange.

[Deleted]

Jun 26, 2018 22:46:46 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

I don't know if any in the chat know Tyler Blevins or Ninja, the most popular Fortnite Twitch streamer or not. But he has played Fortnite matches with Drake before, and will likely stream Drake's entire album Friday on his stream. He typically gets between 100-150k viewers each minute on his stream. All these people watching his stream: factor in viralness at state, county and town fairs, 4th of July parties, shows, listening parties and more and Drake may easily have a HISTORIC debut week on the Billboard 200. If he releases a MV or a LV on the day of the release on any of the tracks and it takes off on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and now even Pandora, it will likely debut top 5 if not #1. This will be a huge week, and I can't barely wait for the release, I've been in anticipation for the album since Nice For What!

Did you finally decide to restan?

[korbel16]

BOO’D UP IS FINALLY ON UNITED STATES TOP 50 AT #50

[slw84]

So delicate might end up going #1 on AirPlay unless cardis I like it overtakes it.

[filthy]

Is “The Light Is Coming” debut disappointing or good considering it isn’t a single?