AT LAST! The complete 1985 - 2017 charts!

[rockgolf]

Back in the 1990s, Billboard columnist Fred Bronson wrote a book called Hottest Hot 100 Hits, and it included a section for the top 100 songs of each year, to the date of publication. But unlike the Billboard year-end charts, which used hard cutoffs of Dec 1 of the previous year to Nov 30 of the current year, he had the perspective of time. He recalculated each song's trajectory, using the complete chart run of the song regardless of which year it started charting and ended charting. Then he put each song in the year where it first reached its highest position. The results were:

• Any song that peaked in December of a year was for the first time included in that year's list.
  
• Songs that were finishing their runs in December and continuing into early next year improved their position
  
• No songs were split across consecutive years. (If a song had 2 completely separate chart runs years apart, like The Twist or Monster Mash or Bohemian Rhapsody, then those runs were kept independent.)

The result was a more genuinely representative list of the years' biggest hits.

That's what I've tried to replicate here for 2017. I've been working for - literally - decades to try to come up with a weighted point system (e.g. fixed points assigned to each week's position on the Hot 100, with bonuses applied for long runs at #1, #2 or #3) that as closely as possible replicates Billboard's own year-end charts based on the only evidence I had: Billboard's own year-end and all-time charts. I'm kind of a whiz with Excel sheets so recalculating values to refine the scoring system is fairly simple for me to do. I figured I must be getting close when Billboard recently published their all time top 600 and their top ten were all in my calculated top 12. If anyone's interested, add a reply asking for the algorithm and I'll try to explain it.

In the meantime, here's my best estimation of what the top 200 songs of 2017 would be, if the Bronson methodology was applied. Remember, songs like Closer that peaked in 2016 or Havana that peaked in 2018 will not be included. (But the complete 2016 is included later in this stream and I'm still calculating the 2018 list on a separate thread.)


The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2017 (complete chart runs)

---

All corrections identified below have (I hope) been applied in the above list.

Questions and comments are welcome.

One other thing: The points shown in the last column have been adjusted by a factor based on the year, so that you can use the number on this list to compare the relative chart performances of songs from any year.

The factor is based on the total original points of the songs in the top 10 in each year, compared to the average of those same songs in all years. So a year with a fast turnover of hits will have a low total top ten, and songs from that year will get their points increased. Songs where the charts move slower have much higher total points in the top ten, so their totals are, in effect, discounted.

The factors allow me to come up with an all-time list that's pretty darn close to Billboard's own all-time list.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

This list could've had more country songs in it, and then songs that would've been in the Top 10 in the 2018 YE. But I wonder how the 2016 one ended up like?

[renaboss]

I don't see "Starboy", by The Weeknd and Daft Punk, which was the first #1 hit of 2017. Did you not go by actual chart dates then? (Meaning, when "Starboy" peaked in 2017, it was still 2016 for us).

[rockgolf]

Oct 6, 2018 7:54:47 GMT -5 renaboss said:

I don't see "Starboy", by The Weeknd and Daft Punk, which was the first #1 hit of 2017. Did you not go by actual chart dates then? (Meaning, when "Starboy" peaked in 2017, it was still 2016 for us).

By my reckoning Starboy peaked on the 12/31/2016 chart, so it juuuuuuuust squeaks onto going on the 2016 list, where it finished #12 with 5892 points. Had it peaked a week later it would have been #8 on this chart.

Keep in mind that those Billboard dates and actual dates on which at activity was measured don't coincide. The week ending (no pun intended, given the artist) Dec 31 actually covered sales, streams and airplay from about 2 or 3 weeks earlier. At the start of this year Billboard have closed that gap (by bringing in a one-time mid-week chart that covered a seven day period within that gap) to try to rectify this.

I still use Billboard's "week ending" dates as official cutoffs because, well frankly, it's easier.

[renaboss]

Oct 6, 2018 8:06:32 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Oct 6, 2018 7:54:47 GMT -5 renaboss said:

I don't see "Starboy", by The Weeknd and Daft Punk, which was the first #1 hit of 2017. Did you not go by actual chart dates then? (Meaning, when "Starboy" peaked in 2017, it was still 2016 for us).

By my reckoning Starboy peaked on the 12/31/2016 chart, so it juuuuuuuust squeaks onto going on the 2016 list, where it finished #12 with 5892 points. Had it peaked a week later it would have been #8 on this chart.

Keep in mind that those Billboard dates and actual dates on which at activity was measured don't coincide. The week ending (no pun intended, given the artist) Dec 31 actually covered sales, streams and airplay from about 2 or 3 weeks earlier. At the start of this year Billboard have closed that gap (by bringing in a one-time mid-week chart that covered a seven day period within that gap) to try to rectify this.

I still use Billboard's "week ending" dates as official cutoffs because, well frankly, it's easier.

"Starboy" definitely peaked in the chart dated January 7 2017, on December 31 2016 "Black Beatles" was still #1, which is why I asked if you were going by chart date or actual date. So yeah "Starboy" is a 2017 #1 hit even though the numbers that got it to #1 took place in 2016. 

[owenlovesmusic]

Oct 6, 2018 10:00:16 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Oct 6, 2018 8:06:32 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

By my reckoning Starboy peaked on the 12/31/2016 chart, so it juuuuuuuust squeaks onto going on the 2016 list, where it finished #12 with 5892 points. Had it peaked a week later it would have been #8 on this chart.

Keep in mind that those Billboard dates and actual dates on which at activity was measured don't coincide. The week ending (no pun intended, given the artist) Dec 31 actually covered sales, streams and airplay from about 2 or 3 weeks earlier. At the start of this year Billboard have closed that gap (by bringing in a one-time mid-week chart that covered a seven day period within that gap) to try to rectify this.

I still use Billboard's "week ending" dates as official cutoffs because, well frankly, it's easier.

"Starboy" definitely peaked in the chart dated January 7 2017, on December 31 2016 "Black Beatles" was still #1, which is why I asked if you were going by chart date or actual date. So yeah "Starboy" is a 2017 #1 hit even though the numbers that got it to #1 took place in 2016. 

It would've been #8 if counted as a 2017 hit.

[rockgolf]

Oct 6, 2018 10:00:16 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Oct 6, 2018 8:06:32 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

"Starboy" definitely peaked in the chart dated January 7 2017, on December 31 2016 "Black Beatles" was still #1, which is why I asked if you were going by chart date or actual date. So yeah "Starboy" is a 2017 #1 hit even though the numbers that got it to #1 took place in 2016. 

Yep, you're right! I had the wrong date of the week it entered the chart. This has had quite a ripple effect on my all-time list. I average out for differences in years by comparing each song's score to the average of the top 10 of that year. By moving to a year where the top ten had a much higher total (78,831 pts in 2017 vs 73,562 pts in 2016 after the adjustment), Starboy moves up in its year end position, but fell from #936 to #1193 on the all time chart!

[Au$tin]

*Complete

[rockgolf]

Oct 6, 2018 12:55:17 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

*Complete

I like the archaic spelling better.

[Zach]

Look at that smash hit Sorry Not Sorry which burned up the charts.

[claystripe]

Please keep producing the full-length versions of these. I know you've been releasing the Top 20s, but those songs were all big enough to easily make the next Year-End. The most fascinating aspect of this type of list are all the songs that did just as well as any on the bottom half of the accepted Year-End and were just released at an unfortunate time (poor "This Town"/"Million Reasons"/"Better Man"/"Silence").

[rockgolf]

Oct 28, 2018 1:38:43 GMT -5 claystripe said:

Please keep producing the full-length versions of these. I know you've been releasing the Top 20s, but those songs were all big enough to easily make the next Year-End. The most fascinating aspect of this type of list are all the songs that did just as well as any on the bottom half of the accepted Year-End and were just released at an unfortunate time (poor "This Town"/"Million Reasons"/"Better Man"/"Silence").

Sure, any other years you'd like to see in particular ?

[claystripe]

Oct 28, 2018 12:48:00 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Oct 28, 2018 1:38:43 GMT -5 claystripe said:

Please keep producing the full-length versions of these. I know you've been releasing the Top 20s, but those songs were all big enough to easily make the next Year-End. The most fascinating aspect of this type of list are all the songs that did just as well as any on the bottom half of the accepted Year-End and were just released at an unfortunate time (poor "This Town"/"Million Reasons"/"Better Man"/"Silence").

Sure, any other years you'd like to see in particular ?

Not particularly, I guess just work your way back. Is there anywhere we can access Fred Bronson's pre-1991 lists online?

[rockgolf]

I don't know if or where Fred Bronson's lists would be other than in print, But I'll try to replicate the spirit of them.

In the meantime, here's the top 200 songs that charted in 2016. As before the entire run of these songs (excluding some re-entries of oldies) are included in this listing.


The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2016 (complete chart runs)

[rockgolf]

And to continue, here's the list for 2015


The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2015 (complete chart runs)

Special thanks to 94sidekick and nick64 for their expertise in correcting this chart.

[claystripe]

Did "Photograph" get placed on the 2016 chart by mistake or did another song get mistitled?

Edit: "My Way" got mixed into 2016, too.

[brady47]

Omg, crazy to think "This Town" was a bigger hit than "Chained to the Rhythm" and just got screwed by being split between years

Great job with these lists! I love them!

[rockgolf]

Nov 3, 2018 14:58:35 GMT -5 claystripe said:

Did "Photograph" get placed on the 2016 chart by mistake or did another song get mistitled?

Edit: "My Way" got mixed into 2016, too.

Good catch!  I'll look into it and correct it.

[brady47]

Woah I'm surprised "Hello" is only #8 on the biggest singles of 2015 (and would've it really been #11 for 2016?)

2015 was a really competitive year

[rockgolf]

Nov 3, 2018 14:58:35 GMT -5 claystripe said:

Did "Photograph" get placed on the 2016 chart by mistake or did another song get mistitled?

Edit: "My Way" got mixed into 2016, too.

Yup, somehow, the entries for those songs got 2 entries in my spreadsheet a year apart. I've fixed the spreadsheet & the chart.

Turns out both Photograph and My Way have both been the title of 3 different songs since 2000...

[rockgolf]

Here's the 2014 list, with a bit of a surprise at #1:


The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2014 (complete chart runs)

[brady47]

Crazy that "Chained to the Rhythm" (#76) and "Birthday" (#81) were basically on par, despite one being a top 5 peaking lead single and the other being a top 20 single and 4th single overall from an album with two big hits already

[rockgolf]

Well now that the year-end charts for 2018 are out of the way, time to go back in time. Way back! To 2013! Where the #1 song of the year will probably hold the permanent record for most weeks in the Hot 100.

The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2013 (complete chart runs)

Let me know if the revised format is more legible.

[claystripe]

It's crazy how weak a year 2015 was, and even crazier that El Perdon somehow ended up on the Official Year End.

[nick64]

Why does Crazy Kids have two entries?

[rockgolf]

Nov 24, 2018 16:25:09 GMT -5 nick64 said:

Why does Crazy Kids have two entries?

My bad. There were two versions  of the song released. I'll  fix ASAP.  

[nick64]

One more quick thing: “Throw Sum Mo” seems...strangely low. I remember it being in talks for the year end chart of that year, and when you think about the #30 peak and the fact that “This Could Be Us” is so much higher, it just seems...off. Same with “Jumpman” dropping from #37 on the actual to #60 here.

These are really cool though and thank you for sharing! I’ve always hated runs getting cut off because of year end, and making it 200? Just awesome.

[rockgolf]

Having corrected 2013, time to go back to 2012:

The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2012 (complete chart runs)

 

[rockgolf]

Let's just finish the decade, shall we?

The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2011 (complete chart runs)

Man, Country Music seemed really in love with itself this year!

[rockgolf]

And, finally the 2010 list:

The Top 200 songs that peaked in 2010 (complete chart runs)