The on-going, continuing complete top songs of 2018 - 2024

[rockgolf]

The 2018 Billboard chart year is dead. Long live the 2019 Billboard chart year. "Official" top 100 lists have been cut-off, compiled and predicted on another thread.

Only thing is, it's still 2018. Still will be for another month. And songs that charted in 2018 will in many cases remain on the chart in 2019. Some for months.

Does it make sense that we call the winner of a staggered marathon before the last runner has crossed the line? I say no!

So, for years, I've been coming up with an alternate, more historical version of the top songs of the year. One that more accurately reflects the totality of songs' chart runs, rather than an arbitrary cut-off.

The rules are simple:

• To qualify for the top songs of that year, the track must have first reached its highest position on the Hot 100 in that year.
  
• The entirety of a song's chart run will be included, whether it started charting in the previous year or continued charting into the next year.
  
• The chart won't be complete until the last song to peak in that year falls off the chart.

So for 2018, that means Perfect won't be listed - it reached #1 in 2017 and its complete run is on that year's chart. Songs currently on this list and still climbing the charts will be removed if they climb to a new highest position in 2019. They'll move to the 2019 chart. Eventually.

The scoring is based on an inverse point scale with the top five scoring 325-272-239-217-196 points respectively and decreasingly smaller bonuses for positions in the top 10, 20, 30 & 40. Extended runs at #1 gets bonus points for each additional week, as, to a smaller extent, do extended runs at #2 & #3. (Example: The first week at #1 scores 325, then next 335, the third 345, the 10th week gets 415. Usually long runs at #1 have BIG leads, and this is a way to try to compensate for that.)

Songs with a "+" in the points column are still on the Hot 100 and will continue to gain points as long as they remain on the chart. But if, say, High Hopes or Without Me reach a new peak in January 2019, they no longer qualify for this year's list. That's what happened with Havana, and you can see below how well that worked out.

So here it is, to be updated weekly as long as songs from 2018 remain on the chart:

UPDATE: Click here to jump to the FINAL and COMPLETE Top 200 to peak in 2018

The original continuing complete top songs of 2018

[rockgolf]

If you want to see this list for earlier years click here to see the lists from 1986 to 2017. I'll be adding even older years in time.

The inspiration for this style of chart comes from longtime Billboard Chart Beat columnist Fred Bronson, who introduced the concept in his book Hottest Hot 100 Hits. Long out of print, I've been trying to replicate his methodology in creating list since he told me that he did not expect further editions to be published.

[rockgolf]

As you can tell by the "+" signs in the points, as of this week, 5 of the top 10 songs (and 9 of the top 20) are still on the chart, and may get more points. (Although I expect that Psycho, Boo'd Up or Sad! won't be on next week's chart, and the points on this list will be their final scores.)

And before people point out that I've misspelled complete, yes, I know. It's actually a valid, albeit archaic spelling of complete with a slightly different meaning.

[rockgolf]

Here's the update after the Dec 1 chart. Songs that climbed this week still qualify for this list, because it's still calendar year 2018, but if they reach a new HP in 2019, they are disqualified from this chart. High Hopes might fall into that category.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click to display chart}

Girls Like You looks to have enough life that I don't think it will have any problem climbing over the current #2 on this chart. Could it reach #1? Only time will tell! Can any current songs get close? Thank U, Next and Sicko Mode have the best shots.

[rockgolf]

This include the Dec 8, 2018 chart, and as expected, Girls Like You has climbed to #3 under my algorithm.

Scores in red are still in the top 25. Scores with a + are still on the chart.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to display chart}

[rockgolf]

Inclusive of Dec 15 chart.

Thank U, Much climbs from #72 to #60, and is sure to move into the top 50 next week.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to see chart}

[rockgolf]

Now inclusive of the Dec 22 chart.

• Girls Like You climbs to #2 overall, still over 1100 points behind God's Plan. Probably not an insurmountable difference. It could end up a nailbiter.
  
• Better Now makes it to the top 10.
  
• Sunflower climbs into the top 100. But... if it climbs on the Hot 100 for 2 more weeks, it will be removed from this chart, as it will have reached it's highest position in 2019. Same is true of any song that reaches a new High Position after next week's chart. So several songs will drop off in the first few weeks but it should be pretty stable by February.

As always, songs with "+" in front of their score are still on the chart. Those in red are in the top 25.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to see chart}

[rockgolf]

New list inclusive of Dec 29 chart:

• This is the last  chart of 2018. That means that any songs that debut from now on will NOT be eligible for this list.
• It also means that any songs on this list that climb next week, or reach a higher chart position in 2019 than in 2018 will automatically be removed from this list.
• The highest listed song on the chart likely to drop out is Eastside. So far it's peaked at #16, and is at #18 this week. With the holiday song wipeout, it's likely to climb above it's old position, and become, at least temporarily, the biggest with a peak in 2019.
  
• GLY moves to just under 1,000 points less than God's Plan. And with 5 holiday songs charting above GLY, which are all likely to plunge next week, GLY could climb back into the top ten. It's looking more and more possible that Maroon 5 will eventually overtake Drake on this chart.
• Ariana's thank u, next leaps into the top 50 of the year at #37. Likely to jump another 5 positions next week.
• All I Want For Christmas Is You gets to #117 for the year. It's likely to only spend one more week on the charts till next November, so unlikely to make the top 100.

As always, +0000 score indicate the song is still charting. Those in red are still in the top 25.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to see chart}

[nick64]

#153 should be “Everyday”, not “Everybody”, and #182 should be “Bad!” not “Bad at Love”.

[rockgolf]

nick64: I'll fix those for next time. Thanks!

[rockgolf]

Well, we now know the first songs that will drop from the 2018 chart:

All I Want For Christmas Is You
Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree
Jingle Bell Rock
A Holly Jolly Christmas

All of them reached new peaks on this week's chart, so they move to the 2019 chart.

[rockgolf]

Well, we're three hours into 2019, where I am, and nobody's posted a list of the biggest hits that reached their highest position in 2019 yet.

Let me be the first.

So at this point, the average age of the songs in the top 15 songs to peak in 2019 is about 50 years old.

Think about that. No wonder Post Malone says "Wow."

I'm sure things will change by year's end.

[rockgolf]

Meanwhile, back in 2018, here's the list updated to the January 5, 2019 chart. Any songs on the previous post, because they now peak in 2019, have dropped from this chart. If "Without Me" by Halsey grabs #1 next week, it too will leap from this chart to the 2019 chart.

Because we're in 2019, there will be fewer changes on this chart each week. As new songs enter, fewer & fewer from 2018 will be active. I don't think we're going to be in the same position as 2018, when "Perfect" kept on the charts until October. This chart could be locked by, possibly May. So I'm only listing the top 100 and songs still on the chart, to save bandwidth. I'll of course do a complete top 200 once the all songs peaking in 2018 have stopped charting.

As always "+" in the points indicate the song is still on the chart, and red indicates it's in the top 25.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to see chart}

[areyoureadytojump]

"complete" not complete.

Thanks!

[rockgolf]

Jan 1, 2019 14:21:51 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

"complete" not complete.

Thanks!

Almost every dictionary lists "complete" as an archaic but acceptable spelling. My version makes it much easier to search for.

[thelegends]

Jan 1, 2019 3:08:00 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Well, we're three hours into 2019, where I am, and nobody's posted a list of the biggest hits that reached their highest position in 2019 yet.

Let me be the first.

So at this point, the average age of the songs in the top 15 songs to peak in 2019 is about 50 years old.

Think about that. No wonder Post Malone says "Wow."

I'm sure things will change by year's end.

Only 3 non xmas songs in here. And 5 songs released in 2018-19. 6 non re-entries here and 1 of them is because it is very old (older than the re-entries). That is surprising.

[spicymapping]

Just a question, is your point system consistent from here to you other complete lists? It feels weird that the top 4 are higher than all the other #1s.

[owenlovesmusic]

Woah GLY

[rockgolf]

Jan 5, 2019 0:13:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Just a question, is your point system consistent from here to you other complete lists? It feels weird that the top 4 are higher than all the other #1s.

You’re right, itis different., I haven’t applied a multiplier to adjust to other years. I won’t know what that multiplier will be until all songs in the top ten have finished charting.

[spicymapping]

Jan 5, 2019 1:18:34 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Jan 5, 2019 0:13:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Just a question, is your point system consistent from here to you other complete lists? It feels weird that the top 4 are higher than all the other #1s.

You’re right, itis different., I haven’t applied a multiplier to adjust to other years. I won’t know what that multiplier will be until all songs in the top ten have finished charting.

Ah, Thank you!

[rockgolf]

As many expected, Halsey's "Without Me" goes to #1 this week, which moves it off the 2018 complete chart and onto the 2019 complete chart where it will enter at #1. I'll have to see what else moves over (which will basically be any song that has a new HP this week).

[rockgolf]

Jan 5, 2019 13:02:56 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Jan 5, 2019 1:18:34 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

You’re right, itis different., I haven’t applied a multiplier to adjust to other years. I won’t know what that multiplier will be until all songs in the top ten have finished charting.

Ah, Thank you!

Just to be clearer, the points on this thread are "raw points". The other "complete" thread shows adjusted points. For 2018, I think the "adjustment factor" will be somewhere between 0.700 and 0.750. It'll be a bigger number than 2017.

The adjustment factor is determined by [average of (sum of top 10 songs raw points) for all years / sum of top 10 songs points for a given year]. So if a year is faster than average, all raw points from that year are increased. If slower, all raw points from that year are decreased.

[rockgolf]

"Girls Like You" climbed even higher than I predicted in the post-Xmas chart, up 7 points to #7. If it goes into a typical chart decay, it's virtually guaranteed to overtake "God's Plan" on this chart some time in March.

[rockgolf]

Further update this evening, but for now, I believe the following songs will all move from the complete 2018 chart to the complete 2019 chart, having reach new peak positions in 2019 with this week's chart:

Without Me
Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse)
High Hopes (already reached #5 in 2018)
Eastside
Leave Me Alone
Speechless
Beautiful
She Got The Best Of Me
Close To Me
You Say
Best Shot
Drunk Me
Be Alright
Sweet But Psycho
Sixteen
Talk To Me
Backin' It Up
Burning Man
Good Girl
Beautiful Crazy
Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
This Feeling
Consequences
Girl Like You (not Girls Like You)
Last Shot
Look Back At It
This Is It
You
Electricity
Ella Quiere Beber
Envy Me
Millionaire
Lovely

[rockgolf]

Here's the revised 2018 & 2019 charts including the data from the Jan 12, 2019 charts. Remember, songs appear on the chart of the year where they first peaked. So this week's top 4 on the 2019 chart are debuts on that chart (and removed from the 2018 chart) because they climbed to higher positions than any chart dated 2018. All points earned on 2018 songs still apply to their 2019 score, which is the entire purpose of these charts.

As always +0000 means the song is still on the charts, red means the song is still in the top 25.

Top songs that peaked in 2019 (total points)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to view chart}

The Christmas songs begin their inevitable drift as they fell of the charts and other songs move ahead. Halsey should build on that lead for at least several weeks, and probably already a lock for top 10 whenever this chart completes (sometime in 2020).

The top songs that peaked in 2018 (complete chart run)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Click here to view chart}

Sicko Mode has a reasonable chance at moving into the top 10 by the end of its run, and GLY keeps creeping up on God's Plan. thank u, next climbs to #28 and looks destined to also reach the top 10 of the year, but, I think, will fall short of #1.

On the 2019 chart, only songs with over 100 points are listed, and on 2018 I'm only listing the top 100 and songs still on the chart for now.

[rockgolf]

The two biggest songs (based on complete chart run) to have peaked in 2019 so far are both by Halsey.

I expect Sunflower to overtake Eastside shortly, as I seemed to have left Sunflower off both charts. Gotta look into that.

ETA: Yup, I mistakenly left Sunflower on the 2018 chart. It's actually #3 on the 2019 chart, for now.

[noober]

high hopes and sunflower is coming

[rockgolf]

Jan 14, 2019 11:39:27 GMT -5 noober said:

high hopes and sunflower is coming

Yup. Sunflower I've already moved. If, as many expect, High Hopes climbs to #4 on the Hot 100 next week, it too will move to the 2019 chart entering in the top 4.

[rockgolf]

Here's the revised 2018 & 2019 charts including the data from the Jan 19, 2019 charts. Remember, songs appear on the chart of the year where they first peaked. I don't think any songs moved from the 2018 to the 2019 chart this week, a very stable chart. (Sunflower was originally accidentally left off last week's 2019 chart.)

Should High Hopes climb to #4 next week, as many expect, it will leap off the 2018 chart, and be #4 on the 2019 chart.

As always +0000 means the song is still on the charts, red means the song is still in the top 25.

The Top 40 songs to peak in 2019 (Complete chart run)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}

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And the revised 2018 numbers (top 100 songs and any 101-200 still on the chart)

The Top Songs to peak in 2018 (Complete chart run)

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SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}

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Maroon 5 are within 450 points of the #1 song of the year, and at this point I can't see them falling short.

[rockgolf]

Here's the revised 2018 & 2019 charts including the data from the Jan 26, 2019 charts. Remember, songs appear on the chart of the year where they first peaked.

As predicted, High Hopes climbed to #4 this week, higher than it ever charted in 2018, so it leaps into the 2019 chart at #3.

As always +0000 means the song is still on the charts, red means the song is still in the top 25.

The Top 40 songs to peak in 2019 (Complete chart run)

And the revised 2018 numbers (top 100 songs and any 101-200 still on the chart)

The Top Songs to peak in 2018 (Complete chart run)

Maroon 5 are within 360 points of the #1 song of the year, and likely to get a Super Bowl bounce. "I Like It" is on the edge of going into the top 5 of the year (a good week for Cardi B), and "Sicko Mode" is on the verge of climbing into the top ten. "Going Bad" looks like it will be the last song to actually climb into the top 100 of songs that peaked in 2018.