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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jan 29, 2019 18:03:40 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=314975&title=NEAR-TRUTHS%3A-Q4-RECONSIDERED-AND-THE-GRAMMY-GAPNEAR TRUTHS: Q4 RECONSIDEREDTHE FOURTH QUARTER IS NO LONGER THE GAME: Q4, once the boiling point of yearly music-marketplace activity, no longer looks meaningful in the overall annual revenue picture. In fact, the goalposts have been moved and the two-minute drill starts now. Release dates now revolve around touring cycles—and acts that are hot at the top of the year can go wire-to-wire. With physical retail now a niche market and the holidays now dominated by gadgets and gift cards, the album as stocking stuffer is over. What’s more, artists have begun to embrace a new model of releasing music that conforms to a subscription-heavy and social-media-saturated world: doling out tracks periodically over the course of the year to maintain fanbase cohesion. Just take a look at Ariana Grande, who has dropped new music on a continual basis and will have a new album in the marketplace two days before the Grammys; her prior set remains a giant, and she has two songs in the Top 5 at Pop radio as well as a brand-new, apparently even bigger one at #1 on Spotify’s U.S. and Global charts and #2 at Apple Music and iTunes. With Q4 so radically diminished in importance, Q1 now appears to be where the action is. Get out of the box early in the year, establish a lead and keep turning out music. Ariana, Drake, Post, Future and other recent market rulers understand that going “off-cycle” in the traditional way now looks like ceding the field. So how does the field look with Q1 well underway? UMG (38%), Sony (25%) and WMG (17%) are roughly where they were at the end of last year; Atlantic remains up top on the label side with 10.8, Interscope moves up to second place with 9.5, Capitol slides into third with an 8, Republic dips slightly to 7.8, Columbia retains its #5 berth with 6.9, Warner Bros. is relatively flat with 6 and RCA is 5.4. Breaking the world down by genre, hip-hop naturally rules the roost with a 21.7 share; pop has 20.1, rock 14, R&B 10.6, Latin 9.4 and country 8.7.
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Jan 29, 2019 19:53:55 GMT -5
It makes sense for the most part for Q1 to be the new Q4. For artists that plan on touring, releasing a new single at the beginning of the year, shortly followed by a new album a month or two later is a perfect set up to go on tour during the popular summer touring season. Album eras don't last as long as they used to and people move on quicker, so if an album is released Q4, by the time the artist goes on tour next summer, people will most likely have moved on.
Come to think of it, many big artists have been releasing lead singles or albums in Q1 the past few years: Ariana, Drake, Ed, Katy, Rihanna, Justin Timberlake, Cardi (I think??). I've even heard rumors of Adele dropping new music this spring.
Sales have tanked (both physically and digitally), so even the post-Christmas iTunes gift card boosts we've seen in the past barely exist. Plus, December charts get so cluttered with Christmas songs anymore.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Jan 30, 2019 9:01:10 GMT -5
The "album" as a concept has been dying since iTunes started letting you buy individual tracks and ended the reliance on the distribution of physical media. Streaming and social media has just sped up that process.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jan 30, 2019 10:57:30 GMT -5
Albums are still big and they are not going anywhere. Sales are down, but consumption is up.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jan 30, 2019 11:11:19 GMT -5
Q4 is not as relevant as it used to be but I don't think it automatically means that Q1 is the new target for all big releases. Some people might be simply avoiding the now inevitable cluster of Xmas songs taking up valuable spots on the Hot 100. A "hit album" is basically any album that has a couple of hit singles keeping it on the chart, so when your single gets losts between 18 different Xmas tracks, it hurts.
Adele is still sticking to Q4. Taylor Swift too, most likely.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jan 30, 2019 15:37:11 GMT -5
Adele has released only one album in Q4 but yea she's most likely to do that this time around.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jan 30, 2019 20:35:35 GMT -5
In the Hot 100 thread, Adele is rumored to be releasing a new single every month.
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jan 31, 2019 9:56:01 GMT -5
its all Mariah's fault!
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Joe1240
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Post by Joe1240 on Feb 2, 2019 11:34:47 GMT -5
There are rumors of Taylor Swift releasing an album early in the year due to her film "Cats" coming out in the fall.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 3, 2019 19:29:35 GMT -5
^Yup.
We just got Ed Sheeran, Taylor Swift and now Post Malone on Friday.
Any big releases in the 4th Quarter?
Or will the big names wait until the 1st Quarter?
Adele? Bruno Mars? Cardi B?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2019 2:23:35 GMT -5
^Bruno could probably pull a Q4 release off, mainly bc he's never been a heavily front-loaded seller who loses steam once the full album is out. But I don't think he's anywhere near B4 being completed so it won't be this Q4.
I'd personally prefer Adele and Columbia try for an era more similar to 21 (Q1 release whose singles and promo carried it throughout the year) than to 25 (Q4 release that was heavily frontloaded in both sales and promo and more or less coasted during the next calendar year), but she'll win either way so who am I to be picky. Columbia and Adele will probably opt for the easy money/schedule and take the Q4 release.
It's been too quiet in Cardi's corner lately. She hasn't lost steam or anything, but she needs to release at least one hot lead single to rebuild her hype again, and she has the kind of audience that is quick to consume and even quicker to move on. So unless she has something coming really soon and is content with her era being done before summer, she would be better off waiting until 2020.
I still think a Q4 album could work for someone, but it would have to be a very deliberate rollout leading up to the album (essentially using the fact that most album cycles die upon release to their advantage rather than trying to work against it).
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 4, 2019 8:29:09 GMT -5
^Thanks!
Look at last year's 4th Quarter:
#1 Albums on the Billboard 200
9/01: Ariana Grande, Sweetener 231,000 9/08: BTS, Love Yourself: Answer 185,000 9/15: Eminem, Kamikaze 434,000 9/22: Paul McCartney, Egypt Station 153,000 9/29: Carrie Underwood, Cry Pretty 266,000
10/06: Brockhampton, Iridescence 101,000 10/13: Lil Wayne, Tha Carter V 480,000 10/20: Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 231,000 10/27: Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 143,000
11/03: Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 109,000 11/10: Andrea Bocelli, Si 126,000 11/17: Metro Boomin, Not All Heroes Wear Capes 99,000 11/24: Kane Brown, Experiment 124,000
12/01: Mumford & Sons, Delta 230,000 12/08: Travis Scott, Astroworld 71,000 12/15: Meek Mill, Championships 229,000 12/22: XXXTentacion, Skins 132,000 12/29: Kodak Black, Dying to Live 89,000
The only one that sold well was GaGa's ASIB.
(Travis Scott on 12/08 was a return to #1.)
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¤ Matthea ¤
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Post by ¤ Matthea ¤ on Sept 4, 2019 15:25:57 GMT -5
Seems like the best music release plan right now is to release the lead single early in the year and follow it up by several more singles before the album release. Releasing singles after the album release seems an uphill battle now.
Unless Adele and Columbia are okay with the possibility of only one hit single from her next album, they might as well start the new era in January.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Sept 4, 2019 16:42:31 GMT -5
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 5, 2019 15:38:05 GMT -5
I forgot GaGa! New music soon?
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Sept 5, 2019 16:33:49 GMT -5
4Q releases were meant to increase foot traffic to music retailers during gift-giving season - first at malls and then at Big Box (Walmart, Target, Best Buy). Obviously, we know that's just not the case anymore.
It's hard to believe no act could break 250K in 4Q last year. The Carter V was released Sept 27, making it a 3Q release.
We're boomeranging back to the 1960s - where several singles were released and then weeks/months later the label tossed out an album compiling those singles with a bunch of covers/throwaway tracks. It wasn't until Beatles/Classic Rock that albums really became cohesive music pieces.
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on Sept 8, 2019 8:35:02 GMT -5
yeah. you see taylor releasing two full singles before album release with term between first single and album being 4 months. (top acts usually did 4~6wks.) it says all when biggest act with biggesy marekting team do that too. album format is dead, and single after album release is becomign dead too. we're in single market. this is what streaming do. korea industry already experienced years ago, others will be same.
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