bigd79
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Post by bigd79 on Oct 4, 2019 14:17:49 GMT -5
It would be awesome if Carrie can score the billboard #1 also but considering how many times she's been hosed there, i'm not expecting it. It will be a pleasant surprise if she does and hopefully UMG can get her there! Very pleased she at least has her mediabase #1 :)
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Oct 4, 2019 14:55:54 GMT -5
It would be awesome if Carrie can score the billboard #1 also but considering how many times she's been hosed there, i'm not expecting it. It will be a pleasant surprise if she does and hopefully UMG can get her there! Very pleased she at least has her mediabase #1 :) She will get the Billboard #1 too! It’s her push week and she should easily get it.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 4, 2019 15:10:27 GMT -5
It would be awesome if Carrie can score the billboard #1 also but considering how many times she's been hosed there, i'm not expecting it. It will be a pleasant surprise if she does and hopefully UMG can get her there! Very pleased she at least has her mediabase #1 :) She will get the Billboard #1 too! It’s her push week and she should easily get it. Matt Stell is surging at the moment. She’s got the MB #1 in the bag already, but Matt was a little over 2 million ahead of Carrie on BB as of Monday morning. Plus Dierks is falling super slowly still. There are a lot of variables in play here and I don’t think a BB #1 is guaranteed by any means.
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jhomes87
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Post by jhomes87 on Oct 4, 2019 15:22:07 GMT -5
It would be awesome if Carrie can score the billboard #1 also but considering how many times she's been hosed there, i'm not expecting it. It will be a pleasant surprise if she does and hopefully UMG can get her there! Very pleased she at least has her mediabase #1 She will get the Billboard #1 too! It’s her push week and she should easily get it. What makes you so sure she'll easily get the Billboard #1? Sure, Carrie has gained nearly 5 million in MB audience in the last 4 days, but Matt Stell has gained about 3.6 million in that same timeframe, and he started the week ahead of Carrie by almost 2.4 million on Billboard. That's a pretty sizable gap for her to make up, especially when Matt is still gaining too, and putting up strong numbers to boot. By my estimate, Carrie has maybe closed the gap on Matt by 1 to 1.2 million on Billboard, but that would be only half the gap at most, and she's only got 3 days left in the Billboard tracking week. It'll all come down to the weekend, and whether or not Capitol Nashville prioritizes the Billboard #1. If they keep pushing for big gains through the day on Sunday (Monday morning Mediabase update), then I think Carrie would maybe have a 50-50 shot (which might be a bit generous) of going #1 on Billboard, but if the label pulls promotion after the end of the day Saturday when the Mediabase #1 becomes official, then Carrie's chances of getting the Billboard #1 as well probably wouldn't be any higher than 10%. Personally I'd maybe give Carrie a 1 out of 3 chance of finishing at #1, and Matt Stell a 2 out of 3 chance. There's even a chance that Carrie will be held to a #3 peak on Billboard, since her Capitol label-mate Dierks Bentley is dropping so slowly with "Living". I definitely think Matt Stell is the front-runner for the Billboard #1 at this point, and if he's sitting in the top spot on Monday, he'll almost certainly get a 2nd week and possibly even a 3rd after that.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 4, 2019 15:27:53 GMT -5
^ Exactly my point. Capitol will need to push HARD to get the BB #1. We shall see if they pull out after Saturday, or push hard the whole weekend. I just feel Capitol botched this yet again by going for a 2nd week for Knocking Boots. Carrie would’ve already had her #1, but the entire schedule got thrown off. It’s been 3 years since Carrie has had a Country Airplay #1, and it looks like that drought will probably continue. The 4th single needs to be radio friendly if she wants another shot at the top. Just glad the tour seems to be saving this era from disaster. Her touring numbers are incredible and is getting rave reviews.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Oct 4, 2019 20:48:29 GMT -5
I don't understand why it even means anything for an artist to get a #1 if it's all about how hard a label pushes a song.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 4, 2019 21:20:07 GMT -5
I don't understand why it even means anything for an artist to get a #1 if it's all about how hard a label pushes a song. Literally bragging rights and good press. The general public doesn’t know how radio works so a #1 still makes for a good selling point; and with this #1 particularly they’ll be able to boast about her first #1 in three years/only female this year with a #1 aside from [insert names, if there’s any?], etc. It’ll make for good publicity and a momentum builder right up through the CMA awards.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 4, 2019 21:30:28 GMT -5
I don't understand why it even means anything for an artist to get a #1 if it's all about how hard a label pushes a song. Literally bragging rights and good press. The general public doesn’t know how radio works so a #1 still makes for a good selling point; and with this #1 particularly they’ll be able to boast about her first #1 in three years/only female this year with a #1 aside from [insert names, if there’s any?], etc. It’ll make for good publicity and a momentum builder right up through the CMA awards. Maren Morris "Girl" and Kelsea Ballerini "Miss Me More" are the only other solo female #1s this year.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Oct 5, 2019 3:24:26 GMT -5
Yeppers: 4 1 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Southbound 7869 6834 1035 44.601 It's the biggest spin increase in the top 50. This weekend will be interesting. It'll be Carrie Underwood versus Matt Stell. It'll be Underwood versus her former label, Arista. I want Capitol to push the ENTIRE weekend and get the Billboard #1. I will not settle for anything less. Agreed. Arista needs to chill out and let Carrie get her #1. Matt is likely going to have multiple weeks at #1, so let Carrie have her one week at the top. I’ll be disappointed if this ends up being a Mediabase-only #1. I mean, considering how seldomly they allowed her to hit #1 when she was actually signed to them... This may be a lot to hope for!
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 5, 2019 13:58:20 GMT -5
I don't understand why it even means anything for an artist to get a #1 if it's all about how hard a label pushes a song. Because it would be her first #1 on BB in three years, and its few and far between for a female song having the chance to hit #1, so every time it has the potential to happen should be celebrated. It would only be the second #1 on the chart by a solo female this year after Maren's "Girl," since Kelsea came up short on BB. The title of hitting #1 at radio is becoming less meaningful in the grand scheme of things, but like... it's still a huge deal in a lot of ways, especially when we're talking about 2 weeks out of 52 that a woman holds the top spot.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 5, 2019 14:21:11 GMT -5
For the record, Kelsea didn't ht #1 with "Miss Me More." Blocked by "Whiskey Glasses." Good call jhomes87 . My older brother pointed out the same thing about Carrie potentially peaking at #3 on Billboard behind Dierks. I think Capitol puts in a ton of elbow grease and gets the #2 peak on Billboard behind Matt, then a solid week for Matt, Chris and Cole each. Clearly radio's made a decision. I guess it's based on the negatives. For real, can we set up a betting market like PredictIt does for politics? It would be so fun to put money on this stuff.
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Oct 5, 2019 14:53:21 GMT -5
For the record, Kelsea didn't ht #1 with "Miss Me More." Blocked by "Whiskey Glasses." Good call jhomes87 . My older brother pointed out the same thing about Carrie potentially peaking at #3 on Billboard behind Dierks. I think Capitol puts in a ton of elbow grease and gets the #2 peak on Billboard behind Matt, then a solid week for Matt, Chris and Cole each. Clearly radio's made a decision. I guess it's based on the negatives. For real, can we set up a betting market like PredictIt does for politics? It would be so fun to put money on this stuff. Kelsea hit #1 on Mediabase, to be clear.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 5, 2019 15:16:40 GMT -5
By the looks of it, if they do keep pushing a BB #1 is possible, so at this point the question is whether or not they’re going for both MB and BB? I’d think they’d like both considering it’s been a while and it’d be their first airplay #1 with Carrie. Also, the timing with CMA voting couldn’t be better. While not technically eligible for voting consideration, a #1 on top of everything else would only add to Carrie’s case at the CMAs, something I think Carrie’s team is coming hard for this year.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Oct 6, 2019 8:20:42 GMT -5
At this point I'm only worried about Dierks keeping her from the BB #1 because he's falling really slow.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 6, 2019 14:39:13 GMT -5
The tracking period for Billboard ends tonight right? She has the MB #1 already but Dierks is still going strong. I would have to look and see how far apart Dierks was from Carrie or Matt.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Oct 6, 2019 14:56:19 GMT -5
Carrie was about 8 million in audience behind Dierks last week. I feel like she may not have made that up unfortunately. I think she will get past Matt though who was about 2 million in audience ahead of her.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 6, 2019 19:20:53 GMT -5
Officially #1 on Mediabase! 27th career #1 single, I believe. Billboard doesn’t seem likely unless tomorrow we see SB still getting a push; while I’d like to think the label would go for both, it kind of seems more realistic that they’ll move on now. But who knows? Carrie’s team has been rather aggressive since the CMA nominations came out, so they may want that BB #1 too!
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 6, 2019 19:45:50 GMT -5
I’m just frustrated that Capitol didn’t kill Living right after it peaked. I get that it was a massive hit for Dierks and that radio wasn’t fully ready to let it go. I mean a #2 peak on Billboard is awesome for her and it gives momentum to the era and hopefully will allow at least one final single to close out the era. It’s all going to come down to how much did Carrie gain on Billboard and how much did Dierks fall.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Oct 6, 2019 20:46:19 GMT -5
The Mediabase and Billboard panels are different too, no? So we can’t fully tell from Mediabase impressions.
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jhomes87
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Post by jhomes87 on Oct 6, 2019 20:53:15 GMT -5
At this point I'm only worried about Dierks keeping her from the BB #1 because he's falling really slow. Why wouldn't you be concerned about Matt Stell? Anyone who's been following the charts for years now should understand that when two songs are neck and neck in Mediabase audience at the end of the day Sunday (as Carrie and Matt are), and one of the songs received a ridiculous push all week (Carrie's), often that means that the push ends on Sunday, and the song that was getting pushed sees a negative update on Monday morning, allowing the other song to stay ahead on Billboard. Do you not see that that's a very real possibility here? Apparently I need to post some numbers... Artist | 09/30 MB audience | 10/06 MB audience | 6-day MB gain | 09/30 Billboard | Dierks Bentley | 50.353 million | 47.412 million | -2.941 million | 38.233 million | Matt Stell | 41.743 million | 46.548 million | +4.805 million | 32.890 million | Carrie Underwood | 39.629 million | 46.764 million | +7.135 million | 30.543 million |
Dierks is projecting to finish in the 35.5 million range on Billboard, give or take a bit. He's falling slowly, but he's not likely to return to #1. I know, I know, he's still got more audience on Mediabase than both Matt and Carrie do, but that's not a good way to accurately predict what the next Billboard chart will look like, because Dierks was 8.6 million ahead of Matt in Monday's Mediabase update, but only about 5.35 million ahead of Matt on the most recent Billboard chart. You have to look at how the songs have done on Mediabase throughout the week, and Dierks has lost almost 3 million on MB. If he only loses about 500k tomorrow, he'll have lost about 3.5 million on MB over the last 7 days, which should be a loss of at least 2.5 to 2.8 million on Billboard...and that would drop him into the 35.5 to 35.8 million range, maybe 36 million tops. The battle is between Matt and Carrie. Matt's had a strong week, and is projecting to gain somewhere between 4 and 4.5 million on Billboard, which would increase his Billboard audience total to 36.9 to 37.4 million or so. Using Carrie's 6-day trajectory, one could estimate that she is on pace to gain about 6.4 million on Billboard...but that's probably way too high of an estimate, and even the high estimate isn't enough of a gain for her to overtake Matt. Why? Well, we know for sure that Matt will keep gaining tomorrow, but there's a good chance that Carrie will level off or even lose ground. More on this in a second... To come up with Carrie's high-end Billboard projection, I first calculated her MB to BB audience ratio, which was 0.77 on Monday (I took her BB audience of 30.543 million and divided it by 39.629 million, which was the total audience she had on MB on Monday). Carrie's 6-day MB gain is +7.135 million (which averages out to 1.19 million gained per day over the last 6 days) and if you multiply 1.19 times 7, and then multiply that number times the 0.77 ratio number, you get about 6.4 million. And so if we add 6.4 million to Carrie's previous Billboard total, she'd have about 36.9 million...and that would only happen IF Carrie somehow manages to gain about 1.19 million on tomorrow's Mediabase update, which seems highly unlikely to me. A more realistic projection would be to take what Carrie has gained on MB over the last 6 days (7.135 million) and reduce that number to 6.75 million or so (since I think it's more likely that Carrie will lose some audience tomorrow morning), and then take the projected MB gain of 6.75 million and multiply it times 0.77. That would result in a Billboard gain of about 5.2 million for Carrie, which would increase her Billboard audience to 35.750 million or so, give or take a bit. And Matt Stell definitely seems like he's heading towards 37 million or so...which means that, based off my projections, Carrie looks likely to come up quite short, by over 1 million in audience, and possibly closer to 1.5 million. If Carrie gains more than 1 million on Mediabase tomorrow morning, then she might have a shot, but even if Carrie posts a huge gain tomorrow morning, I'd still give Matt at least a 70% chance of coming out on top on the Billboard chart. Carrie might not even make it to #2 on Billboard.. right now I give her about a 50-50 chance of passing Dierks for a #2 peak on Billboard, but it's possible that she'll come up just short of passing him, meaning Dierks would be #2, with Carrie just barely behind and settling for a #3 peak. Based off the numbers, I simply cannot give Carrie any higher than a 10% chance of getting to #1 on Billboard, and again, the only way for her chances to increase is if she can post a huge gain on MB tomorrow morning. But even then, her odds would still look pretty slim. She's had a huge week, but Matt has posted very strong numbers too, and he opened the week leading Carrie by 2.35 million on Billboard. In short, I give Matt at least a 90% chance of being #1 on Billboard, with Carrie and Dierks battling for the #2 position but likely finishing quite far behind Matt.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 6, 2019 21:40:21 GMT -5
I will also say another small point in Matt Stell's favor is that CCUSA has their whole hottest song of the week which is pretty much an extra spin for a song in the Top 5 and that went to "Prayed For You" which is pretty much a free spin in Matt Stell's corner add in the fact that "Southbound" is losing last week's Country Countdown USA spins tomorrow (Carrie Underwood co-hosted last week). I am about 99% sure Carrie Underwood is gonna come up short on Billboard.
I am happy she got the Mediabase #1, and at the end of the day it will be labelled a #1 regardless so this getting the Billboard #1 is pretty much icing on the cake if doable. Which does not appear to be.
Combo of bad timing and "Prayed For You" along with "Living" having insanely great radio hype and callout scores did really limit this songs #1 chances. But at least it did salvage this album era somewhat from a radio perspective. Also a female song hitting #1 regardless of whether or not it is a Mediabase only #1 is still a net positive I feel like.
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Oct 6, 2019 21:41:28 GMT -5
At this point, I’m wondering why Capitol even bothered with this huge push if they’re not going for Billboard also? It seems like quite the waste of resources to only peak at #3. Maybe they weren’t expecting Matt Stell to have such a good week?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 6, 2019 22:14:16 GMT -5
At this point, I’m wondering why Capitol even bothered with this huge push if they’re not going for Billboard also? It seems like quite the waste of resources to only peak at #3. Maybe they weren’t expecting Matt Stell to have such a good week? Capitol probably felt like "Southbound" couldn't wait out Matt Stell by the time "Prayed For You" would give up, which I definitely understand. This situation reminds me of a diet version in very late 2015 when Sony tried to push "Burning House" for #1 before "Die A Happy Man" took over, and the label came up just short.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 6, 2019 22:29:53 GMT -5
At this point, I’m wondering why Capitol even bothered with this huge push if they’re not going for Billboard also? It seems like quite the waste of resources to only peak at #3. Maybe they weren’t expecting Matt Stell to have such a good week? Capitol probably felt like "Southbound" couldn't wait out Matt Stell by the time "Prayed For You" would give up, which I definitely understand. This situation reminds me of a diet version in very late 2015 when Sony tried to push "Burning House" for #1 before "Die A Happy Man" took over, and the label came up just short. To be fair, Die a Happy Man was a MASSIVE hit and Burning House didn’t even have a chance. However, it looks like history is repeating itself because Prayed For You just took off. Regardless of how this turns out, I’ll take a top 5 single any day, because this song saved the album era and hopefully we get at least one more single.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 6, 2019 22:40:10 GMT -5
Capitol probably felt like "Southbound" couldn't wait out Matt Stell by the time "Prayed For You" would give up, which I definitely understand. This situation reminds me of a diet version in very late 2015 when Sony tried to push "Burning House" for #1 before "Die A Happy Man" took over, and the label came up just short. To be fair, Die a Happy Man was a MASSIVE hit and Burning House didn’t even have a chance. However, it looks like history is repeating itself because Prayed For You just took off. Regardless of how this turns out, I’ll take a top 5 single any day, because this song saved the album era and hopefully we get at least one more single. Right, hence why I called this version the "diet" one since both songs are much lesser hits than both songs.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Oct 7, 2019 1:38:53 GMT -5
At this point, I’m wondering why Capitol even bothered with this huge push if they’re not going for Billboard also? It seems like quite the waste of resources to only peak at #3. Maybe they weren’t expecting Matt Stell to have such a good week? It’s been mentioned before here but the label, the industry and radio hold Mediabase in a high regard. Getting Carrie to #1 on Mediabase is not a waste of resources in their minds, even if many here still think of Billboard Airplay as the only chart tht matters — they do not. I’m fully expecting Matt Stell to be #1 on Billboard Airplay tomorrow. It was obvious from the start of the week that “Southbound” grabbing the top on both charts wasn’t going to happen. UMG knew that but this push week was planned weeks in advance and they’re fine with a Mediabase #1.
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Post by sjadeupdate on Oct 7, 2019 6:07:20 GMT -5
The song had a negative update today so i guess UMG didn't push the song any further yesterday. She fell to #2 on Mediabase. So no Billboard Country Airplay #1, but we still got the Mediabase #1 (her 27th), which is a great achievement considering where her previous last 2 singles peaked.
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Oct 7, 2019 12:05:30 GMT -5
It’s a shame that this ran into bad timing (which seems to happen more often than not with females) but Carrie doesn’t really need #1s to boost her profile anymore. She’s killing it on tour and her album is gold in actual sales (which is quite rare nowadays). A top 5 is just a bonus.
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Sugar Rush
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Post by Sugar Rush on Oct 7, 2019 12:13:06 GMT -5
I mean at the end of the day Southbound is a #1 single.
As well the fact a women over 35 reaching #2 is a huge accomplishment, considering that the genre usually treats women in their late thirties like garbage.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 7, 2019 16:13:52 GMT -5
I mean at the end of the day Southbound is a #1 single. As well the fact a women over 35 reaching #2 is a huge accomplishment, considering that the genre usually treats women in their late thirties like garbage. Agreed. I’m ready for the next single. My money is on “Drinking Alone” or “Low” for the 4th single. Either would likely do well.
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