Billboard Hot 100: 07/06/2019

[velaxti]

I think Old Town Road is what Harlem Shake could have been if it was more commercial, radio-acceptable, verse-chorus song with vocals.

[kacpi]

If Lil Nas X has this promised OTR remix with Young Thug ready to release, I'm 100% sure he'll break the record. It was so anticipated that he keeps it until this song's reign is threatened

[Choco]

I know the "guaranteed" discussion is kind of rote and stale at this point, but Billboard kinda addressed it when discussing Taylor's second #2 hit in a row.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8517553/taylor-swift-you-need-to-calm-down-five-burning-questions

They all seem to agree that Drake wasn't really trying with these two tracks, but as soon as he enters album mode it could be a different story, and that Adele is probably not releasing anytime soon. Their best guesses for what could dethrone OTR?

1. Something new goes viral. (Could happen I guess).
2. Rihanna is gearing up for her next album? (I'm gonna go ahead and predict that this doesn't happen until near the end of the year at the earliest).
3. "Señorita" which could do it but it needs time to grow in airplay.
4. "bad guy" when it peaks on airplay (would love to see this happen but streaming will have probably dropped a bit by the time airplay finally maxes out).

[kimberly]

Jun 26, 2019 13:05:12 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Jun 26, 2019 13:00:23 GMT -5 tanooki said:

I thought Adele wasn't gonna release until later this year?

Yeah, though the "by thanksgiving" is for the whole album, so I'd expect the first single sometime from august to october

She might squeeze in her lead single for the Grammy noms before Aug 31, then album before thanksgiving.

Hello sold more than a million in its first week, it'll be interesting to see how her new lead fares.

[Enigma.]

Jun 26, 2019 13:29:35 GMT -5 Choco said:

1. Something new goes viral. (Could happen I guess). Very unlikely.
2. Rihanna is gearing up for her next album? (I'm gonna go ahead and predict that this doesn't happen until near the end of the year at the earliest). No.
3. "Señorita" which could do it but it needs time to grow in airplay. Streaming not big enough even with 100M airplay added to points after the first two weeks.
4. "bad guy" when it peaks on airplay (would love to see this happen but streaming will have probably dropped a bit by the time airplay finally maxes out). Streaming numbers too low.

So there you go!

Last week 65% of the streaming points of OTR came from Youtube basically. There's nothing in sight that could match that. And people move to other things veeeery slowly on Youtube.

[#LisaRinna]

Shawn keeps booking Spotify!

[kacpi]

Jun 26, 2019 14:01:44 GMT -5 #LisaRinna said:

Shawn keeps booking Spotify!

I'm getting more and more surprised every day. Also it broke its own record in daily global streams, it's like 8.5 million now

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jun 26, 2019 13:31:06 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Jun 26, 2019 13:05:12 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Yeah, though the "by thanksgiving" is for the whole album, so I'd expect the first single sometime from august to october

She might squeeze in her lead single for the Grammy noms before Aug 31, then album before thanksgiving.

Hello sold more than a million in its first week, it'll be interesting to see how her new lead fares.

I know this is stupid math, but:

average #1 Digital song in 2015 (until Hello): 242,000
average #1 Digital song in 2019 (26 weeks so far): 70,000

So, based on these average #1s, 322,000 in 2019 is equivalent to 1,112,000 in 2015.

[Choco]

I think Adele could break 200k sales... 300k seems wayyyyyyy too high. Would love to be proven wrong though.

[fhas]

Jun 26, 2019 14:13:39 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Jun 26, 2019 13:31:06 GMT -5 kimberly said:

She might squeeze in her lead single for the Grammy noms before Aug 31, then album before thanksgiving.

Hello sold more than a million in its first week, it'll be interesting to see how her new lead fares.

I know this is stupid math, but:

average #1 Digital song in 2015 (until Hello): 242,000
average #1 Digital song in 2019 (26 weeks so far): 70,000

So, based on these average #1s, 322,000 in 2019 is equivalent to 1,112,000 in 2015.

That's very interesting.

The problem is...

1,112,000 downloads in 2015: 105,905 Hot 100 points
322,000 downloads in 2019: 53,667 Hot 100 points

[badrobot]

Jun 26, 2019 15:13:29 GMT -5 @benson said:

Jun 26, 2019 15:04:31 GMT -5 Choco said:

I think Adele could break 200k sales... 300k seems wayyyyyyy too high. Would love to be proven wrong though.

I was thinking about sales figures myself.  I should know this, but how does it work if someone were to release a single and put the album up for preorder on the same day?  Wouldn't all the first week pre-orders (with instant grat download) count as a digital sale of the song for the Hot 100, in addition to anyone just buying the one track?  Or does it not work that way these days?

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the logic is that if you buy an album, and then get an instant download, it doesn't count as a song purchase for Hot 100. So, if an album went on sale for pre-order with the first song as a download when you pre-order, it would only count if you specifically purchased the song individually first.

I think they moved to this model after some songs were just getting automatically high debuts without people actually doing anything to buy the song.

[cassiuscasanova]

I think, maybe, in a couple weeks we will get a better idea of what can what will dethrone him.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

+ #29 Never Really Over

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I think Senorita will be #2 and Truth Hurts #10.

I'm so sick of Wow and Sunflower, POST release something!

[forg]

I want 15 weeks or 17 weeks at #1 for OTR. Because there's no 15-week #1 yet. I'll be a little annoyed when it stops at 16 weeks for a triple tie at the record

[allow that]

Jun 26, 2019 19:07:40 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I'm so sick of Wow and Sunflower, POST release something!

[Mayman]

I can't see how Señorita won't be #2 this week with the streams it's doing right now.

[spicymapping]

Jun 26, 2019 19:07:40 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I'm so sick of Wow and Sunflower is a gift from god

fixed

[jeiboy]

Hmm Old Town Road just won't budge for now


And expected more for Senorita

[mzumii]

Jun 26, 2019 20:08:04 GMT -5 allow that said:

Jun 26, 2019 19:07:40 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I'm so sick of Wow and Sunflower, POST release something!

Ah man take this L

[fhas]

Jun 26, 2019 20:31:17 GMT -5 Mayman said:

I can't see how Señorita won't be #2 this week with the streams it's doing right now.

~40 million. That's not huge. YNTCD did 39M and sold more.

[kanfad]

post malone has been in the top ten for how many consecutive weeks now? i think since after the Scorpion week so almost a year?

[kacpi]

Jun 27, 2019 2:49:41 GMT -5 kanfad said:

post malone has been in the top ten for how many consecutive weeks now? i think since after the Scorpion week so almost a year?

Nope, for sure not a year. He wasn't in the top ten on the chart dated December 15, 2018. Sunflower came back to top ten on next week's chart. It's still half a year though, really impressive.

[musicspy]

Jun 26, 2019 19:03:27 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

+ #29 Never Really Over

I really cant see Rodeo debuting below Megatron, Truth Hurts not passing both Wow and Sunflower(FINALLY), Money in the grave so stable(?) and Billie, really?GTFO

[kacpi]

Jun 27, 2019 4:39:20 GMT -5 musicspy said:

Jun 26, 2019 19:03:27 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I really cant see Rodeo debuting below Megatron, Truth Hurts not passing both Wow and Sunflower(FINALLY), Money in the grave so stable(?) and Billie, really?GTFO

I totally agree. BET Awards gave a lot of attention to Truth Hurts. The song already rose to Top 5 on iTunes, increased in streams on Spotify and Apple Music, it's also rising on the radio. Top 10 seems like a sure thing.
Panini at #16? Kinda low too. I expected another top ten hit for Nas. Rodeo was lower than MEGATRON only on iTunes, i would predict top 20 for it. Nicki's song already fell out of top 50 on Spotify, that says a lot
Billie's rising just because of the radio. I think she already peaked when it comes to streaming. 

[musicspy]

Jun 27, 2019 4:52:09 GMT -5 kacpi said:

Jun 27, 2019 4:39:20 GMT -5 musicspy said:

I really cant see Rodeo debuting below Megatron, Truth Hurts not passing both Wow and Sunflower(FINALLY), Money in the grave so stable(?) and Billie, really?GTFO

I totally agree. BET Awards gave a lot of attention to Truth Hurts. The song already rose to Top 5 on iTunes, increased in streams on Spotify and Apple Music, it's also rising on the radio. Top 10 seems like a sure thing.
Panini at #16? Kinda low too. I expected another top ten hit for Nas. Rodeo was lower than MEGATRON only on iTunes, i would predict top 20 for it. Nicki's song already fell out of top 50 on Spotify, that says a lot
Billie's rising just because of the radio. I think she already peaked when it comes to streaming. 

You re so right. Im not sure about Panini though, Rodeo has a big lead on Itunes and Youtube I think, but I would expect a close debut for them both, Rodeo around 15-17 and Panini 12-14. As for Billie I got tired of her song as well. Senorita is killing it on streaming, yet I see them having about the same total. Billie's streams have been rising for the last 2-3 weeks and I have no idea why. She is no longer top3 on Spotify and barely top10 on Apple. Youtube? No clue

[Az Paynter]

'Old Town Road' losing 2.22m AI today according to Kworb. :'(

[renaboss]

Miley, Ariana and Lana as Charlie's Angels. Anyone think it might have what it takes to dethrone OTR?

Edit: Nvm, I don't actually know when that song is coming.

[Enigma.]

Jun 27, 2019 8:14:40 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

'Old Town Road' losing 2.22m AI today according to Kworb. :'(

If it keeps on losing 2-3M each day for the next 3 weeks, Señorita MIGHT be able to dethrone it on week 16.

[kacpi]

Jun 27, 2019 8:14:40 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

'Old Town Road' losing 2.22m AI today according to Kworb.

The disrespect is real, y'all