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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 16, 2019 11:28:24 GMT -5
Seems likely that the following will all go recurrent this week: EASTSIDE Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid 9 52 SICKO MODE Travis Scott 1 49 SHALLOW Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper 1 41 LOOK BACK AT IT A Boogie wit da Hoodie 27 31 BETTER Khalid 8 43 GIRLS NEED LOVE Summer Walker x Drake 37 20 GOOD AS YOU Kane Brown 36 20 OCEAN EYES Billie Eilish 84 20 Girls Need Love is one song I didn't see charting for as long as it did. Never got a video, but was able to chart for almost 3 months off streams and little radio support.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jul 16, 2019 11:42:07 GMT -5
Shallow might JUST stay in, depending on how many new Ed Sheeran tracks reach top 50.
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dovahduck
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Post by dovahduck on Jul 16, 2019 13:11:16 GMT -5
Soooo are we not gunna talk about how that sza, The Weeknd, and Travis Scott collab flopped hard asdfghkjl I guess we could talk about the state of The Weeknd's career. Would be an interesting topic. "The Hills" was certified Diamond recently and 'Starboy' (the album) just went 8 times Platinum. It seems however, that as of right now, based off all the singles he's released since "I Feel It Coming", The Weeknd isn't really interested in promoting his music. He's been focusing on other business endeavors (such as eSports) and the community center HXHOUSE in Toronto.
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David
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Post by David on Jul 16, 2019 13:15:01 GMT -5
To be clear, US streams of the "audio only" YouTube video of the "bad guy" remix will count, correct?
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Jul 16, 2019 13:17:29 GMT -5
It seems as though Ed's album bomb won't be as big as expected. Could Sunflower hold top 10 for a 31st week? I kinda want it to break the record, even if it's unlikely. The Ed Sheehan album didn’t do very well because it’s only a collab project. He would have massive streams if he were to have an album called “Minus”.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jul 16, 2019 13:23:45 GMT -5
David- yes, audio counts.
Does the daily YouTube chart include both audio and video of of a track? I gather the listings combine all versions, too?
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kacpi
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Post by kacpi on Jul 16, 2019 13:32:37 GMT -5
Nas released an Area 51 video of Old Town Road's newest remix. If this is not clever chart game, I don't know what is.
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David
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Post by David on Jul 16, 2019 13:36:11 GMT -5
Nas released an Area 51 video of Old Town Road's newest remix. If this is not clever chart game, I don't know what is. I can't blame the guy for going for the record, but it feels desperate to me.... of course, I don't want the record broken so I'm admittedly biased. It just doesn't feel right to me.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jul 16, 2019 13:38:27 GMT -5
I was about to ask why Nas would do such a thing but then I got it.... All this effort should be done next week though, it's the crucial one regarding the record.
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Jul 16, 2019 13:48:30 GMT -5
But when Taylor pulled the stops people complained endlessly.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 16, 2019 14:08:25 GMT -5
But when Taylor pulled the stops people complained endlessly. I don't think "ME!"s first week should be compared to "OTR"s 16th week vying for #1. Taylor, too, would have done so much to get the record if she got this close.
"ME!" came with so many free album/merch/pop socket/iphone case bundles that it seemed desperate. Sad thing is, Taylor could have debuted at #2 without all that effort. So it just looked messy.
(At least all those bundles might help her continue her 1M+ week streak?)
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 16, 2019 14:16:18 GMT -5
But when Taylor pulled the stops people complained endlessly. I don't think "ME!"s first week should be compared to "OTR"s 16th week vying for #1. Taylor, too, would have done so much to get the record if she got this close.
"ME!" came with so many free album/merch/pop socket/iphone case bundles that it seemed desperate. Sad thing is, Taylor could have debuted at #2 without all that effort. So it just looked messy.
(At least all those bundles might help her continue her 1M+ week streak?)
No way on God's green earth does Taylor move a million units first week with Lover. She can bundle all the merch, tour tickets and whatever else she wants. Her pure sale figures will be massively low and even if they aren't (thanks to being buffed up by bundles), she won't do nearly well enough on the streaming end of things to pull it all the way through. Hasn't she moved a million album units in a debut week four times with four different albums? Why does she need to do it again? She's proven she can sell albums. That's just placing unnecessary and unrealistic expectations on her.
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Jul 16, 2019 14:18:43 GMT -5
David- yes, audio counts. Does the daily YouTube chart include both audio and video of of a track? I gather the listings combine all versions, too? Yes, they include both audio and video from all versions. On YouTube charts they have a chart for video streams only and other chart with the combined streams (audio/video) that's used for the Hot 100.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 16, 2019 14:26:16 GMT -5
I don't think "ME!"s first week should be compared to "OTR"s 16th week vying for #1. Taylor, too, would have done so much to get the record if she got this close.
"ME!" came with so many free album/merch/pop socket/iphone case bundles that it seemed desperate. Sad thing is, Taylor could have debuted at #2 without all that effort. So it just looked messy.
(At least all those bundles might help her continue her 1M+ week streak?)
No way on God's green earth does Taylor move a million units first week with Lover. She can bundle all the merch, tickets and whatever else she wants. Her pure sale figures will be massively low and even if they aren't (thanks to being buffed by by bundles), she won't do nearly well enough on the streaming end of things to pull it all the way through. Hasn't she moved a million album units in a debut week four times with four different albums? Why does she need to do it again? She's proven she can sell albums. That's just placing unnecessary and unrealistic expectations on her. I never said I expected that from her? But I believe you are underestimating Taylor's selling power. Her other tepidly-received project reputation debuted with 1.216 million sales, 8k TEA and 13k SEA units. She didn't need SEA to cross the mark in 2017, and she might not need it now. Heck, reputation was less than 50k shy of matching 1989 and managed to sell more than RED.
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Jul 16, 2019 14:48:04 GMT -5
I don't like this guy
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jul 16, 2019 15:02:43 GMT -5
Sunflower's chart performance so far:
9-24-23-16-17-17-17-7-4-5-3-1-2-3-3-4-5-3-4-4-2-3-3-2-2-3-3-5-7-6-7-6-7-7-11-12-8-9
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David
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Post by David on Jul 16, 2019 15:47:33 GMT -5
Does anyone have the YouTube views for "bad guy" and "Old Town Road" on the first day of this tracking week? I believe the date would be Friday, July 12th. I can't find it on Kworb.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 16, 2019 16:07:56 GMT -5
kimberly yes and something you're forgetting about reputation: That album was following her biggest album ever, dropped in 2017 and MONTHS before it arrived, she had bundled tour tickets along to go with it, tickets that as of now, about a month and a week to this album's release, aren't available yet. Pure sales are also at an all time low. The truth is, more than ever and even beyond the album's debut week, she'll need streams to move even 2 million album units for her next album. Reputation will be 2 years old by November this year and albums by Post Malone and Drake that were released 5 and 7 months after it have moved more units (in the US). Also, I wasn't saying YOU were putting those expectations on her. I was just speaking generally. And I don't think I'm underestimating her. I called her a proven album seller. I'm just being realistic. I think a lot of things have changed since her last album and it's kinda ridiculous for anyone to still think she can rally up a million album units for a debut week. She doesn't need to (try to) do it to have a massive week.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 16, 2019 16:09:22 GMT -5
Girls Need Love is one song I didn't see charting for as long as it did. Never got a video, but was able to chart for almost 3 months off streams and little radio support. A good example of a moderate hit today, it's all about staying afloat for awhile - peaks be damned. And did you mean almost 5 months? 20 weeks, right? I didn't realise it had been charting for that long. Yes, 20 weeks is almost 5 months.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 16, 2019 16:14:29 GMT -5
kimberly yes and something you're forgetting about reputation: That album was following her biggest album ever, dropped in 2017 and MONTHS before it arrived, she had bundled tour tickets along to go with it, tickets that as of now, about a month and a week to this album's release, aren't available yet. Pure sales are also at an all time low. The truth is, more than ever and even beyond the album's debut week, she'll need streams to move even 2 million album units for her next album. Reputation will be 2 years old by November this year and albums by Post Malone and Drake that were released 5 and 7 months after it have moved more units (in the US). Also, I wasn't saying YOU were putting those expectations on her. I was just speaking generally. And I don't think I'm underestimating her. I called her a proven album seller. I'm just being realistic. I think a lot of things have changed since her last album and it's kinda ridiculous for anyone to still think she can rally up a million album units for a debut week. She doesn't need to (try to) do it to have a massive week. God, I almost forgot about her Ticketmaster queue gag. I hear you.
She's repeating the Target exclusive / please buy 4 copies of my album strategy though.
Let's see if she announces a tour in the coming weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if she did, and considering how Jonas Brothers (coming off a very successful comeback single) performed with the bundles, she would be sure to sell at least as many tickets. She's set for the biggest week of 2019 regardless, unless the album is a pile of hot garbage and maybe even then. Swifties are wild.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jul 16, 2019 17:32:25 GMT -5
kimberly yes and something you're forgetting about reputation: That album was following her biggest album ever, dropped in 2017 and MONTHS before it arrived, she had bundled tour tickets along to go with it, tickets that as of now, about a month and a week to this album's release, aren't available yet. Pure sales are also at an all time low. The truth is, more than ever and even beyond the album's debut week, she'll need streams to move even 2 million album units for her next album. Reputation will be 2 years old by November this year and albums by Post Malone and Drake that were released 5 and 7 months after it have moved more units (in the US). Also, I wasn't saying YOU were putting those expectations on her. I was just speaking generally. And I don't think I'm underestimating her. I called her a proven album seller. I'm just being realistic. I think a lot of things have changed since her last album and it's kinda ridiculous for anyone to still think she can rally up a million album units for a debut week. She doesn't need to (try to) do it to have a massive week. God, I almost forgot about her Ticketmaster queue gag. I hear you.
She's repeating the Target exclusive / please buy 4 copies of my album strategy though.
Let's see if she announces a tour in the coming weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if she did, and considering how Jonas Brothers (coming off a very successful comeback single) performed with the bundles, she would be sure to sell at least as many tickets. She's set for the biggest week of 2019 regardless, unless the album is a pile of hot garbage and maybe even then. Swifties are wild.
Her last four records debuted with over 1 million in their first weeks, I don't expect Lover to do the same but I expect it to do a lot. At least over 500k.
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narp
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Post by narp on Jul 16, 2019 17:33:25 GMT -5
So what’s the likelihood of OTR being #1 on the YE?
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Jul 16, 2019 17:36:04 GMT -5
Nas released an Area 51 video of Old Town Road's newest remix. If this is not clever chart game, I don't know what is. Damn, he's a meme virus. Attaching his own meme to other memes to keep his meme alive. Parents, stop letting your children onto YouTube.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 17:36:33 GMT -5
So what’s the likelihood of OTR being #1 on the YE? it’s basically locked unless another song comes out and ends up being just as huge sometime soon
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jodakyellow
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Post by jodakyellow on Jul 16, 2019 20:27:12 GMT -5
So what’s the likelihood of OTR being #1 on the YE? it’s basically locked unless another song comes out and ends up being just as huge sometime soon It can’t be “locked” because it’s not even #1 YTD yet (it’s #5 by most estimates, right?). If it has anything close to a remotely normal fall down the charts once it’s done being #1, then it’s a near-guarantee. If it, say, gets banned by the US government an hour from now and fully disappears from the Internet and radio, then it can’t get any higher than #5 YE. I know I’m being nitpicky and pedantic, but, to me anyway, “locked” would mean it’s already at #1 YTD and gonna stay there. (Someone please correct me if that’s not the accepted understanding of “locked” around these parts!)
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Jul 16, 2019 20:36:38 GMT -5
Nas released an Area 51 video of Old Town Road's newest remix. If this is not clever chart game, I don't know what is. Damn, he's a meme virus. Attaching his own meme to other memes to keep his meme alive. Parents, stop letting your children onto YouTube. 1.2 million views already.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 16, 2019 21:05:53 GMT -5
kimberly kcdawg13 oh, I absolutely have her having the highest debut week of 2019 (except Adele decides to drop this year). She should move over 500K units easily. I'll make a safe bet of anywhere from 650-750K units first week. I'm skeptical of her bundles being as effective this time around because they didn't work out so well when she tried them with her singles. I could be wrong, but she's had that Target deal for a while now and I've seen a lot of her fans who have said they don't have that money to spend and will save up for her tour/merch instead and will just cop whatever version of the album goes on streaming sites. Also, I believe if they were moving tons of units, we would have gotten a report on them by now, the same way we got the report of her moving 400K album units from tour bundles weeks before reputation was released.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 22:35:43 GMT -5
it’s basically locked unless another song comes out and ends up being just as huge sometime soon It can’t be “locked” because it’s not even #1 YTD yet (it’s #5 by most estimates, right?). If it has anything close to a remotely normal fall down the charts once it’s done being #1, then it’s a near-guarantee. If it, say, gets banned by the US government an hour from now and fully disappears from the Internet and radio, then it can’t get any higher than #5 YE. I know I’m being nitpicky and pedantic, but, to me anyway, “locked” would mean it’s already at #1 YTD and gonna stay there. (Someone please correct me if that’s not the accepted understanding of “locked” around these parts!) “basically”
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Jul 16, 2019 22:52:39 GMT -5
it’s basically locked unless another song comes out and ends up being just as huge sometime soon It can’t be “locked” because it’s not even #1 YTD yet (it’s #5 by most estimates, right?). If it has anything close to a remotely normal fall down the charts once it’s done being #1, then it’s a near-guarantee. If it, say, gets banned by the US government an hour from now and fully disappears from the Internet and radio, then it can’t get any higher than #5 YE. I know I’m being nitpicky and pedantic, but, to me anyway, “locked” would mean it’s already at #1 YTD and gonna stay there. (Someone please correct me if that’s not the accepted understanding of “locked” around these parts!) It's already at #1 using real points. Sunflower's insane longevity is the only thing that could stop OTR from being the #1 song of the year.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Jul 17, 2019 0:38:38 GMT -5
I’m from the future, here is what happens in the charts over the next few weeks.
-Lil Nas X breaks the record at 17 weeks - Bad Guy immediately has 2 weeks at number one (remix is not counted) -Next number one is Senorita for one week -Then the Git Up for 4 Weeks, which becomes the biggest dance craze of the year - Rihanna’s newest single debuts at number one in late September, number one for 7 weeks -Taylor swifts third single is number one for 1 week -Post Malone’s new single debuts at number one for one week -Last number one hit of the decade is Adele’s newest single, which stays at number one for 12 weeks into the new year
Save this post because it is how the rest of the year plays out
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