CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Dec 27, 2019 14:06:09 GMT -5
My hopes for the next single are "Better Together" or "Moon Over Mexico." I believe both would do incredible at radio (a seemingly moot point as whatever he touches is a massive hit, but I believe these could possibly become BHC-level crossovers with radio, especially Better Together.) As much as I like the 2 songs you mentioned, I really think Lovin’ On You or Every Little Big Helps will be the third single. After that I’d go with Better Together or Moon Over Mexico being the fourth single. Every Little But Helps would be my choice for the third single over Lovin’ On You but I could see either of them being next.
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Dec 27, 2019 15:10:49 GMT -5
This might be headed for a 5th week atop Billboard based on how things have been trending on the Mediabase updates this week (now, Mediabase updates are directional indicators for Billboard since they have different panels but at the same time share many stations). "Even Though I'm Leaving" is barely losing audience outside of Christmas Eve and Christmas where almost every single suffered a huge loss in spins and audience, while "Ridin' Roads" doesn't seem to be posting massive gains.
On Monday, the first day of the Billboard tracking week I believe, "Ridin' Roads" was behind "Even Though I'm Leaving" by more than 4.1 million on Mediabase and as of today's update (so Thursday's numbers) Dustin Lynch is behind Luke Combs by over 2.3 million; which means it took 4 days for the former to gain 1.8 million on the latter; if things go at this pace, Dustin will still be behind Luke by 0.5 million or so, at which point it might be too close to call how that translates to Billboard. Of course, if Dustin starts gaining faster or Luke starts falling faster, then that kind of seals the deal, but as of right now the picture isn't too clear. This will be an interesting week to watch for Billboard even with audience numbers collapsing across the board.
Of course, Dustin has the MB #1 in the bag as he is already #1 there and I don't foresee Luke Combs returning to #1 there. Dustin's push week is next week (12/29-1/4) so he should get the Billboard #1 either way, it's more a matter of when and how many weeks.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 27, 2019 16:10:50 GMT -5
This might be headed for a 5th week atop Billboard based on how things have been trending on the Mediabase updates this week (now, Mediabase updates are directional indicators for Billboard since they have different panels but at the same time share many stations). "Even Though I'm Leaving" is barely losing audience outside of Christmas Eve and Christmas where almost every single suffered a huge loss in spins and audience, while "Ridin' Roads" doesn't seem to be posting massive gains. On Monday, the first day of the Billboard tracking week I believe, "Ridin' Roads" was behind "Even Though I'm Leaving" by more than 4.1 million on Mediabase and as of today's update (so Thursday's numbers) Dustin Lynch is behind Luke Combs by over 2.3 million; which means it took 4 days for the former to gain 1.8 million on the latter; if things go at this pace, Dustin will still be behind Luke by 0.5 million or so, at which point it might be too close to call how that translates to Billboard. Of course, if Dustin starts gaining faster or Luke starts falling faster, then that kind of seals the deal, but as of right now the picture isn't too clear. This will be an interesting week to watch for Billboard even with audience numbers collapsing across the board. Of course, Dustin has the MB #1 in the bag as he is already #1 there and I don't foresee Luke Combs returning to #1 there. Dustin's push week is next week (12/29-1/4) so he should get the Billboard #1 either way, it's more a matter of when and how many weeks. I would absolutely love to see this spend week 5 at the top and the fact that it is a possibility is awesome! I like Dustin more than some others here but I still wouldn’t mind him only getting 1 week at the top since I like Luke a lot better.
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Dec 27, 2019 20:48:01 GMT -5
Give me Does To Me next. Anthem. Followed by Reasons and Every Little Bit Helps. And whatever else after. Those 3 need released
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Post by SwiftlySheeran on Dec 27, 2019 21:03:20 GMT -5
Give me Does To Me next. Anthem. Followed by Reasons and Every Little Bit Helps. And whatever else after. Those 3 need released I agree that Does To Me should be a single. It almost feels like a passing of the torch moment from Church to Combs. Kind of bittersweet to have the end of an era but the beautiful growth of a new one. However, we all know Better Together will be a single at one point. Not only did it chart the highest of all the songs released (it peaked at 14 just from the album release and is still in the top 30), but it's also an obvious wedding song. The last time that happened? Beautiful Crazy took over the country world for like 7 weeks at the top. I rest my case.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 27, 2019 23:40:12 GMT -5
My hopes for the next single are "Better Together" or "Moon Over Mexico." I believe both would do incredible at radio (a seemingly moot point as whatever he touches is a massive hit, but I believe these could possibly become BHC-level crossovers with radio, especially Better Together.) As much as I like the 2 songs you mentioned, I really think Lovin’ On You or Every Little Big Helps will be the third single. After that I’d go with Better Together or Moon Over Mexico being the fourth single. Every Little But Helps would be my choice for the third single over Lovin’ On You but I could see either of them being next. As much as I'd love "Every Little Bit Helps" as a single, I'm not convinced its contention given that there was only one other song on the album that charted worse than it when the album was released. They have several tracks to pick from that seemed to resonate much better with the general public, so I can unfortunately see that one being passed over.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Dec 28, 2019 1:32:18 GMT -5
They don't want to announce a new single until after the new year. They're content letting "Even Though I'm Leaving's" gradually declining airplay carry them into the new quarter.
Honestly, Luke and Sony could go so many directions and it would be a great choice (successful) but I can almost guarantee "Does to Me" and "Better Together" will be singles. I might side with holding off on "Better Together" until the end of the album cycle since that's selling so incredibly well, it would be a ace in the hole release and explode in sales as the album gets older. "Reasons" seems like another logical choice. "1,2 Many" would be a cool since it gets Brooks & Dunn another hit. Anything but "All Over Again"...that's the only song on the album I don't care for.
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ericNY2002
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Post by ericNY2002 on Dec 28, 2019 12:09:44 GMT -5
The song moves back to #1 on Mediabase today. Ironically Even Though I’m Leaving would’ve been moved to recurrent this past Sunday night (12-22) but didn’t since it was a holiday week. I wonder what will happen if it’s still #1 once the first published chart week is released,
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Dec 28, 2019 12:34:11 GMT -5
The song moves back to #1 on Mediabase today. Ironically Even Though I’m Leaving would’ve been moved to recurrent this past Sunday night (12-22) but didn’t since it was a holiday week. I wonder what will happen if it’s still #1 once the first published chart week is released, They will keep it on the charts til it has the 3 straight drop weeks while also not being at #1. A song being #1 pretty much grants them instant immunity and does not count as a bulletless week even if they lose their bullet at #1.
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Post by SwiftlySheeran on Dec 29, 2019 0:58:33 GMT -5
A totally pointless remark here but one I still feel needs to be said. We need Does To Me as a single simply due to the fact that Eric Church's echoes in the last chorus are everything. I'm obsessed with how he echoes "Average Joe!"
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Dec 29, 2019 1:35:53 GMT -5
"Does to Me" is fine, but it's basically the same concept as "Refrigerator Door" and that one is a much better song imo. I'd vastly prefer that one as a single over DTM.
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Post by jamatthews83 on Dec 29, 2019 1:39:46 GMT -5
Does To Me is the only non pre release track that has stood out to me, so I'd be pretty happy with that.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 31, 2019 0:24:04 GMT -5
So does being #1 on this week’s BB chart mean he is the first artist to have a number one of the 2020s?
If so, who is it for other decades?
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Dec 31, 2019 12:15:04 GMT -5
So does being #1 on this week’s BB chart mean he is the first artist to have a number one of the 2020s? If so, who is it for other decades? Technically he does but since it was a #1 last decade, Dustin Lynch should have the first new #1 of the 2020’s.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Dec 31, 2019 12:19:37 GMT -5
So does being #1 on this week’s BB chart mean he is the first artist to have a number one of the 2020s? If so, who is it for other decades? This is according to Hot Country Songs: 2000s: Faith Hill - "Breathe" (week of January 1) 2010s: Reba - "Consider Me Gone" (week of January 2) 2020s: Dan + Shay ft. Justin Bieber - "10,000 Hours" (week of January 4) "10,000 Hours" has already been at the top of the chart there for 12 weeks including this week's chart, highlighting how streaming has really impacted the HCS chart over the course of the 2010s decade. (which is why Country Airplay was created to better track what was being played the most on radio.) So as for the Country Airplay chart: 2010s: "Take a Little Ride" by Jason Aldean (week of October 20, 2012--the very introduction of the chart) 2020s: "Even Though I'm Leaving" by Luke Combs (week of January 4 and based off your post I assume you knew that already. On Country Airplay at least, this does mean he is the first artist with a #1 since January 4 is the first chart of the 2020s. However, once Dustin Lynch gets a #1 in 2020 for "Ridin' Roads," he'll have the first new #1 song of the 2020s on the CA chart.)
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Dec 31, 2019 12:36:26 GMT -5
^ Actually, Country Airplay was just a rebranding of the old Hot Country Songs chart. Before late 2012 HCS measured airplay only. Billboard likes to pretend that pre-2012 HCS and Country Airplay are not the same thing, but they are.
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Dec 31, 2019 12:50:53 GMT -5
Reba > Jason Aldean anyday and "Even Though I'm Leaving" > "10,000 Hours" so...
#radioonlychartsftw
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 31, 2019 13:12:54 GMT -5
Reba > Jason Aldean anyday and "Even Though I'm Leaving" > "10,000 Hours" so... #radioonlychartsftw The funny thing is that I’d actually like the streaming/sales/radio chart better than just the radio chart if it was a little more...I don’t know, I guess...consistent! Luke’s song is my fave out of that group! I like it better than Dustin’s which will be the first new #1 of the decade. I’d rank Luke>10k Hours>Dustin Who even knows when the next “new” HCS #1 will even be...it could take months.
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Post by SwiftlySheeran on Dec 31, 2019 14:15:19 GMT -5
I do agree that counting all 3 metrics is the best way to consider the most well rounded song. Plus, it could allow artists who radio disrespects to still chart well if the fans give them enough love with sales and streams.
However, since streaming is the giant of the 3, and that country songs in general are behind the curve in terms of getting streams (with a few exceptions), it does allow for songs that are streamed by the general public to take over the viewpoints of the country world. In essence, this allows for a bunch of "meme" songs to be added to the top of the list just because everyone saw the song on Tik Tok and wanted to listen to the song as a joke.
The problem is one can't simply say, "Oh...these aren't country people...their streams are worth less." You have to include everything, which does mess with consistency sometimes, but once country artists get more involved in the streaming world, the charts will definitely be consistent with what people are listening to.
That may actually lead to a country #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 the next decade! We didn't get that this decade at all, but if artists like Luke Combs continue to get streams, we could see a country revolution very very soon.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Dec 31, 2019 14:17:13 GMT -5
So does being #1 on this week’s BB chart mean he is the first artist to have a number one of the 2020s? If so, who is it for other decades? This is according to Hot Country Songs: 2000s: Faith Hill - "Breathe" (week of January 1) 2010s: Reba - "Consider Me Gone" (week of January 2) 2020s: Dan + Shay ft. Justin Bieber - "10,000 Hours" (week of January 4) "10,000 Hours" has already been at the top of the chart there for 12 weeks including this week's chart, highlighting how streaming has really impacted the HCS chart over the course of the 2010s decade. (which is why Country Airplay was created to better track what was being played the most on radio.) So as for the Country Airplay chart: 2010s: "Take a Little Ride" by Jason Aldean (week of October 20, 2012--the very introduction of the chart) 2020s: "Even Though I'm Leaving" by Luke Combs (week of January 4 and based off your post I assume you knew that already. On Country Airplay at least, this does mean he is the first artist with a #1 since January 4 is the first chart of the 2020s. However, once Dustin Lynch gets a #1 in 2020 for "Ridin' Roads," he'll have the first new #1 song of the 2020s on the CA chart.) While you’re correct about Faith Hill having the first #1 song of the 2000’s with Breathe, the first new #1 was Cowboy Take Me Away by Dixie Chicks. If I’m not mistaken Breathe was #1 for 2 or 3 weeks in 1999 then only 1 week at the beginning of 2000. The same thing happened in the 90’s as Highway 101’s song Who’s Lonely Now was the first #1 of 1990 but the first new #1 was Keith Whitley’s It Ain’t Nothin’. It’s also looking like Kane Brown will have the first new top 10 of the 2020’s.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Dec 31, 2019 14:57:36 GMT -5
This is according to Hot Country Songs: 2000s: Faith Hill - "Breathe" (week of January 1) 2010s: Reba - "Consider Me Gone" (week of January 2) 2020s: Dan + Shay ft. Justin Bieber - "10,000 Hours" (week of January 4) "10,000 Hours" has already been at the top of the chart there for 12 weeks including this week's chart, highlighting how streaming has really impacted the HCS chart over the course of the 2010s decade. (which is why Country Airplay was created to better track what was being played the most on radio.) So as for the Country Airplay chart: 2010s: "Take a Little Ride" by Jason Aldean (week of October 20, 2012--the very introduction of the chart) 2020s: "Even Though I'm Leaving" by Luke Combs (week of January 4 and based off your post I assume you knew that already. On Country Airplay at least, this does mean he is the first artist with a #1 since January 4 is the first chart of the 2020s. However, once Dustin Lynch gets a #1 in 2020 for "Ridin' Roads," he'll have the first new #1 song of the 2020s on the CA chart.) While you’re correct about Faith Hill having the first #1 song of the 2000’s with Breathe, the first new #1 was Cowboy Take Me Away by Dixie Chicks. If I’m not mistaken Breathe was #1 for 2 or 3 weeks in 1999 then only 1 week at the beginning of 2000. The same thing happened in the 90’s as Highway 101’s song Who’s Lonely Now was the first #1 of 1990 but the first new #1 was Keith Whitley’s It Ain’t Nothin’. It’s also looking like Kane Brown will have the first new top 10 of the 2020’s. Yeah, I forgot to clarify about Faith's. I just went to see which song was #1 on the first chart of those decades, I didn't think to check which of them was new lol. (I do know CMG was a new #1 from the very start of the decade.) Also not to nitpick but just observing that Faith was actually at #1 in 2000 for the entire month of January, not just one week. Dixie Chicks started the month of February with the first new #1 of that decade.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jan 1, 2020 13:10:01 GMT -5
FWIW, 'Breathe' was also Billboard's #1 single of the year in 2000 without topping the Hot 100. The resiliency of this stellar single is amazing to put it mildly, so holding off on not releasing a new single made plenty of sense.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jan 8, 2020 20:26:45 GMT -5
Pretty impressive how close this came to a 6th week at #1 on Billboard (less than .200 AI).
The staying power on this is strong, but I can't wait to hear what the new single will be.
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Post by SwiftlySheeran on Jan 22, 2020 20:02:34 GMT -5
Considering Luke is performing on SNL soon, does anyone think it's a good time to debut the next single?
Since you perform two songs I could still seem him performing Even Though I'm Leaving and Beer Never Broke My Heart, so it's not a guarantee. Plus he could pull a Taylor Swift and just perform a song that he really likes off the album that isn't a single (Swift did False God).
Either way I'm excited for Combs to make his SNL debut!!!
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