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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 17, 2019 14:16:17 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Lucid Dreams (#8, 47 weeks)
Old Town Road (#39, 41 weeks)
Potential songs:
Bad Guy (#21, 37 weeks) *very likely*
All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 35 weeks) *nearly certain, next year*
Truth Hurts (#23, 32 weeks) *likely*
Someone You Loved (#4, 31 weeks) *likely*
Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#3, 30 weeks) *likely, at some point*
Jingle Bell Rock (#15, 28 weeks) *likely, at some point*
Trampoline (#27, 28 weeks) *unlikely*
Ransom (#31, 28 weeks) *unlikely*
No Guidance (#19, 27 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#44, 26 weeks) *very unlikely*
Senorita (#16, 25 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#22, 25 weeks) *possible*
Beautiful People (#50, 24 weeks) *very unlikely*
Ballin' (#18, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 17, 2019 15:57:55 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks: Lucid Dreams (#8, 47 weeks) Old Town Road (#39, 41 weeks) Potential songs: Bad Guy (#21, 37 weeks) *very likely* All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 35 weeks) *nearly certain, next year* Truth Hurts (#23, 32 weeks) *likely* Someone You Loved (#4, 31 weeks) *likely* Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#3, 30 weeks) *likely, at some point* Jingle Bell Rock (#15, 28 weeks) *likely, at some point* Trampoline (#27, 28 weeks) *unlikely* Ransom (#31, 28 weeks) *unlikely* No Guidance (#19, 27 weeks) *possible* Only Human (#44, 26 weeks) *very unlikely* Senorita (#16, 25 weeks) *possible* Panini (#22, 25 weeks) *possible* Beautiful People (#50, 24 weeks) *very unlikely* Ballin' (#18, 21 weeks) *unlikely* Old Town Road, Beautiful People & Only Human probably gone next week. Bad Guy looks likely to make 40 AND 52 weeks, as well as Someone You Loved |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 17, 2019 16:04:53 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks: Lucid Dreams (#8, 47 weeks) Old Town Road (#39, 41 weeks) Potential songs: Bad Guy (#21, 37 weeks) *very likely* All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 35 weeks) *nearly certain, next year* Truth Hurts (#23, 32 weeks) *likely* Someone You Loved (#4, 31 weeks) *likely* Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#3, 30 weeks) *likely, at some point* Jingle Bell Rock (#15, 28 weeks) *likely, at some point* Trampoline (#27, 28 weeks) *unlikely* Ransom (#31, 28 weeks) *unlikely* No Guidance (#19, 27 weeks) *possible* Only Human (#44, 26 weeks) *very unlikely* Senorita (#16, 25 weeks) *possible* Panini (#22, 25 weeks) *possible* Beautiful People (#50, 24 weeks) *very unlikely* Ballin' (#18, 21 weeks) *unlikely* Old Town Road, Beautiful People & Only Human probably gone next week. Bad Guy looks likely to make 40 AND 52 weeks, as well as Someone You Loved It's possible. I do believe that Beautiful People and Only Human are likely gone next week. Bad Guy and Someone You Loved right now definitely look like they could stay around quite a while, but we'll see how it goes. My "likelihood" is for them making 40 weeks. Beyond that, I record how they are going as it is quite difficult for songs to reach that level, much less to beat recurrency beyond 52 weeks. |
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Dec 17, 2019 16:06:26 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks: Lucid Dreams (#8, 47 weeks) Old Town Road (#39, 41 weeks) Potential songs: Bad Guy (#21, 37 weeks) *very likely* All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 35 weeks) *nearly certain, next year* Truth Hurts (#23, 32 weeks) *likely* Someone You Loved (#4, 31 weeks) *likely* Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#3, 30 weeks) *likely, at some point* Jingle Bell Rock (#15, 28 weeks) *likely, at some point* Trampoline (#27, 28 weeks) *unlikely* Ransom (#31, 28 weeks) *unlikely* No Guidance (#19, 27 weeks) *possible* Only Human (#44, 26 weeks) *very unlikely* Senorita (#16, 25 weeks) *possible* Panini (#22, 25 weeks) *possible* Beautiful People (#50, 24 weeks) *very unlikely* Ballin' (#18, 21 weeks) *unlikely* Old Town Road, Beautiful People & Only Human probably gone next week. Bad Guy looks likely to make 40 AND 52 weeks, as well as Someone You Loved Old Town Road could still survive. If it can make it through these last 2 Christmas weeks then you can probably pencil it in for 52 |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 17, 2019 16:08:28 GMT -5
Old Town Road, Beautiful People & Only Human probably gone next week. Bad Guy looks likely to make 40 AND 52 weeks, as well as Someone You Loved Old Town Road could still survive. If it can make it through these last 2 Christmas weeks then you can probably pencil it in for 52 I think if it survives the Christmas bomb it will benefit from the YE charts playing it so much as well as the potential Grammy boost. |
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 17, 2019 16:26:09 GMT -5
Old Town Road, Beautiful People & Only Human probably gone next week. Bad Guy looks likely to make 40 AND 52 weeks, as well as Someone You Loved Old Town Road could still survive. If it can make it through these last 2 Christmas weeks then you can probably pencil it in for 52 I do agree that if Old Town Road does survive its almost a lock for 52 weeks. Without the Christmas music it would still be Top 30. However its at #39 and could easily fall out. Or it could pull a Love Lies and barely survive the season, except this time ir wouldnt fall out at 51 weeks |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 24, 2019 18:52:32 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Lucid Dreams (#22, 48 weeks)
Old Town Road (#41, 42 weeks)
Potential songs:
Bad Guy (#25, 38 weeks) *very likely*
All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 36 weeks) *nearly certain, next year*
Truth Hurts (#32, 33 weeks) *possible*
Someone You Loved (#8, 32 weeks) *likely*
Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#2, 31 weeks) *likely, at some point*
Jingle Bell Rock (#9, 29 weeks) *likely, at some point*
Trampoline (#33, 29 weeks) *unlikely*
Ransom (#39, 29 weeks) *unlikely*
No Guidance (#20, 28 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#45, 27 weeks) *very unlikely*
Senorita (#21, 26 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#29, 26 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#14, 22 weeks) *unlikely*
The Christmas Song (#30, 20 weeks) *likely, at some point*
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candypaint
Charting
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 183
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Post by candypaint on Dec 24, 2019 20:59:58 GMT -5
Will bad guy cross 52 weeks? I feel like it might cut off right before 50.
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
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Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Dec 24, 2019 21:17:40 GMT -5
Will bad guy cross 52 weeks? I feel like it might cut off right before 50. I don't see that happening, it would still be top 20 without the Christmas songs and is still relatively stable, plus the Grammys boost is coming up soon. That should be enough to get it to 52. |
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 24, 2019 22:22:24 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks: Lucid Dreams (#22, 48 weeks) Old Town Road (#41, 42 weeks) Potential songs: Bad Guy (#25, 38 weeks) *very likely* All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 36 weeks) *nearly certain, next year* Truth Hurts (#32, 33 weeks) *possible* Someone You Loved (#8, 32 weeks) *likely* Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#2, 31 weeks) *likely, at some point* Jingle Bell Rock (#9, 29 weeks) *likely, at some point* Trampoline (#33, 29 weeks) *unlikely* Ransom (#39, 29 weeks) *unlikely* No Guidance (#20, 28 weeks) *possible* Only Human (#45, 27 weeks) *very unlikely* Senorita (#21, 26 weeks) *possible* Panini (#29, 26 weeks) *unlikely* Ballin' (#14, 22 weeks) *unlikely* The Christmas Song (#30, 20 weeks) *likely, at some point* Lucid Dreams held better then i expected this week. MAYBE 52 weeks for that but still not that likely. Old Town Road could barely make it through Christmas and reach it, if it does then its almost a lock for 52. Bad guy also will probably get 52 weeks |
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candypaint
Charting
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 183
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Post by candypaint on Dec 25, 2019 1:51:04 GMT -5
Will bad guy cross 52 weeks? I feel like it might cut off right before 50. I don't see that happening, it would still be top 20 without the Christmas songs and is still relatively stable, plus the Grammys boost is coming up soon. That should be enough to get it to 52. I keep forgetting about the Grammy's lol |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 25, 2019 19:34:44 GMT -5
You can't sleep on them  . |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 31, 2019 13:59:17 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Old Town Road (#34, 43 weeks)
Potential songs:
Bad Guy (#23, 39 weeks) *nearly certain*
All I Want For Christmas Is You (#1, 37 weeks) *nearly certain, next year*
Truth Hurts (#35, 34 weeks) *possible*
Someone You Loved (#8, 33 weeks) *likely*
Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (#2, 32 weeks) *likely, at some point*
Jingle Bell Rock (#3, 30 weeks) *likely, at some point*
Trampoline (#46, 30 weeks) *unlikely*
Ransom (#50, 30 weeks) *unlikely*
No Guidance (#25, 29 weeks) *possible*
Senorita (#26, 27 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#30, 27 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#19, 23 weeks) *unlikely*
The Christmas Song (#16, 21 weeks) *likely, at some point*
On Chill (#58, 20 weeks) *unlikely*
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jtd Thee Stallion
6x Platinum Member
Meet Me @ The Altar Fan Account
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on Jan 1, 2020 14:54:08 GMT -5
I wouldn’t say Ballin’ is unlikely at this point it has a decent chance
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insen_13
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Gave you too much but it wasn't enough
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Posts: 1,452
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Post by insen_13 on Jan 1, 2020 15:22:55 GMT -5
It's unfortunate that "Delicate" and "Blank Space" did not stay at least 40 weeks on the Hot 100 :'(
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 2, 2020 14:23:37 GMT -5
I wouldn’t say Ballin’ is unlikely at this point it has a decent chance I'm going to change the odds next week; in looking at the charts I realized I was calculating likelihood with all those Christmas songs still in, and when those go a lot of songs will jump a lot, and so don't worry, Ballin' will get to at least a possible. |
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Jan 6, 2020 16:21:24 GMT -5
Welcome back Sucker to the watchlist lol, will definitely get 40 weeks now
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Jan 6, 2020 16:44:30 GMT -5
Welcome back Sucker to the watchlist lol, will definitely get 40 weeks now Suge & Only Human also back. I could see Suge & Only Human getting 40 weeks. Sucker might even get 52 (although a album bomb could end that) |
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Jan 6, 2020 16:50:11 GMT -5
Welcome back Sucker to the watchlist lol, will definitely get 40 weeks now Suge & Only Human also back. I could see Suge & Only Human getting 40 weeks. Sucker might even get 52 (although a album bomb could end that) I can only see Suge surviving if there's no big album bombs in the next 4 weeks. Only Human still has a ways to go, not sure if it can make it |
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 6, 2020 20:24:41 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Old Town Road (#15, 44 weeks)
Talk (#40, 44 weeks)
Bad Guy (#14, 40 weeks)
Potential songs:
Sucker (#29, 39 weeks) *very likely*
Suge (#43, 36 weeks) *unlikely*
Truth Hurts (#18, 35 weeks) *very likely*
Someone You Loved (#4, 34 weeks) *very likely*
I Don’t Care (#28, 32 weeks) *possible*
Trampoline (#19, 31 weeks) *possible*
Ransom (#33, 31 weeks) *possible*
No Guidance (#16, 30 weeks) *likely*
Senorita (#11, 28 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#17, 28 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#25, 27 weeks) *unlikely*
Beautiful People (#42, 25 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#12, 24 weeks) *possible*
On Chill (#39, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
Baby (#47, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
Hot (#24, 20 weeks) *unlikely*
Lover (#34, 20 weeks) *unlikely
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 13, 2020 16:08:43 GMT -5
And Sucker has hit 40 weeks. I'm still working on the overall list, obviously.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 13, 2020 21:58:23 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Talk (#42, 45 weeks)
Old Town Road (#46, 45 weeks)
Bad Guy (#33, 41 weeks)
Sucker (#34, 40 weeks)
Potential songs:
Suge (#50, 37 weeks) *unlikely*
Truth Hurts (#20, 36 weeks) *very likely*
Someone You Loved (#6, 35 weeks) *very likely*
I Don’t Care (#32, 33 weeks) *possible*
Trampoline (#16, 32 weeks) *possible*
No Guidance (#15, 31 weeks) *likely*
Senorita (#18, 29 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#23, 29 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#25, 29 weeks) *possible*
Beautiful People (#45, 26 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#11, 25 weeks) *possible*
On Chill (#37, 22 weeks) *unlikely*
Baby (#47, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
Hot (#21, 21 weeks) *possible*
Lover (#36, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
Good As Hell (#8, 20 weeks) *possible*
What If I Never Get Over You (#40, 20 weeks) *unlikely*
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 22, 2020 17:01:21 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Talk (#48, 46 weeks)
Bad Guy (#40, 42 weeks)
Sucker (#32, 41 weeks)
Potential songs:
Truth Hurts (#33, 37 weeks) *likely*
Someone You Loved (#6, 36 weeks) *very likely*
I Don’t Care (#38, 33 weeks) *unlikely*
Trampoline (#20, 33 weeks) *likely*
No Guidance (#19, 32 weeks) *likely*
Senorita (#24, 30 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#28, 30 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#34, 30 weeks) *possible*
Ballin' (#13, 26 weeks) *possible*
On Chill (#46, 23 weeks) *unlikely*
Hot (#31, 22 weeks) *unlikely*
Lover (#50, 22 weeks) *unlikely*
Good As Hell (#11, 21 weeks) *possible*
One Man Band (#36, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
What If I Never Get Over You (#49, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
Circles (#3, 20 weeks) *possible*
Even Though I'm Leaving (#37, 20 weeks) *unlikely*
Playing Games (#54, 20 weeks) *very unlikely*
Heat (#59, 20 weeks) *very unlikely*
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 28, 2020 13:48:27 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Bad Guy (#41, 43 weeks)
Sucker (#49, 42 weeks)
Potential songs:
Truth Hurts (#43, 38 weeks) *possible*
Someone You Loved (#8, 37 weeks) *very likely*
I Don’t Care (#44, 34 weeks) *unlikely*
Trampoline (#24, 34 weeks) *likely*
No Guidance (#25, 33 weeks) *possible*
Senorita (#30, 31 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#35, 31 weeks) *possible*
Panini (#39, 31 weeks) *possible*
Ballin' (#14, 27 weeks) *possible*
Hot (#42, 23 weeks) *unlikely*
Good As Hell (#12, 22 weeks) *possible*
One Man Band (#46, 22 weeks) *unlikely*
Circles (#4, 21 weeks) *possible*
Even Though I'm Leaving (#45, 21 weeks) *unlikely*
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Jan 28, 2020 18:21:40 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks: Bad Guy (#41, 43 weeks) Sucker (#49, 42 weeks) Potential songs: Truth Hurts (#43, 38 weeks) *possible* Someone You Loved (#8, 37 weeks) *very likely* I Don’t Care (#44, 34 weeks) *unlikely* Trampoline (#24, 34 weeks) *likely* No Guidance (#25, 33 weeks) *possible* Senorita (#30, 31 weeks) *possible* Only Human (#35, 31 weeks) *possible* Panini (#39, 31 weeks) *possible* Ballin' (#14, 27 weeks) *possible* Hot (#42, 23 weeks) *unlikely* Good As Hell (#12, 22 weeks) *possible* One Man Band (#46, 22 weeks) *unlikely* Circles (#4, 21 weeks) *possible* Even Though I'm Leaving (#45, 21 weeks) *unlikely* Someone You Loved & No Guidance looking almost certain to make 40 weeks |
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 29, 2020 19:38:38 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks: Bad Guy (#41, 43 weeks) Sucker (#49, 42 weeks) Potential songs: Truth Hurts (#43, 38 weeks) *possible* Someone You Loved (#8, 37 weeks) *very likely* I Don’t Care (#44, 34 weeks) *unlikely* Trampoline (#24, 34 weeks) *likely* No Guidance (#25, 33 weeks) *possible* Senorita (#30, 31 weeks) *possible* Only Human (#35, 31 weeks) *possible* Panini (#39, 31 weeks) *possible* Ballin' (#14, 27 weeks) *possible* Hot (#42, 23 weeks) *unlikely* Good As Hell (#12, 22 weeks) *possible* One Man Band (#46, 22 weeks) *unlikely* Circles (#4, 21 weeks) *possible* Even Though I'm Leaving (#45, 21 weeks) *unlikely* Someone You Loved & No Guidance looking almost certain to make 40 weeks Someone you loved would need to fall more than ten positions a week for the next three weeks to avoid 40 weeks. That's as close to certain as we get here in chartland. No Guidance looks pretty likely too, obviously. I'm curious to see what will be the fallout of the chart bomb last week as well as whatever Grammys boost there is for certain songs/artists. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 3, 2020 18:34:16 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Bad Guy (#17, 44 weeks)
Sucker (#39, 43 weeks)
Potential songs:
Truth Hurts (#32, 39 weeks) *likely*
Someone You Loved (#5, 38 weeks) *nearly certain*
I Don’t Care (#44, 35 weeks) *unlikely*
Trampoline (#27, 35 weeks) *likely*
No Guidance (#24, 34 weeks) *likely*
Senorita (#26, 32 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#37, 32 weeks) *unlikely*
Panini (#49, 32 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#16, 28 weeks) *possible*
Hot (#45, 24 weeks) *unlikely*
Good As Hell (#13, 23 weeks) *possible*
One Man Band (#40, 23 weeks) *unlikely*
Circles (#3, 22 weeks) *possible*
Even Though I'm Leaving (#41, 22 weeks) *unlikely*
Hot Girl Bummer (#23, 20 weeks) *possible*
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 10, 2020 20:53:50 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Bad Guy (#25, 45 weeks)
Sucker (#38, 44 weeks)
Truth Hurts (#35, 40 weeks)
Potential songs:
Someone You Loved (#6, 39 weeks) *nearly certain*
I Don’t Care (#40, 36 weeks) *unlikely*
Trampoline (#32, 36 weeks) *possible*
No Guidance (#22, 35 weeks) *likely*
Senorita (#28, 33 weeks) *possible*
Only Human (#37, 33 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#12, 29 weeks) *possible*
Hot (#47, 25 weeks) *unlikely*
Good As Hell (#16, 24 weeks) *possible*
One Man Band (#36, 24 weeks) *unlikely*
Circles (#3, 23 weeks) *possible*
Even Though I'm Leaving (#43, 23 weeks) *unlikely*
Hot Girl Bummer (#19, 21 weeks) *possible*
Memories (#4, 20 weeks) *possible*
Bones (#18, 20 weeks) *possible*
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 18, 2020 19:05:45 GMT -5
Made 40 Weeks:
Bad Guy (#29, 46 weeks)
Sucker (#37, 45 weeks)
Truth Hurts (#41, 41 weeks)
Someone You Loved (#8, 40 weeks)
Potential songs:
I Don’t Care (#40, 37 weeks) *unlikely*
Trampoline (#35, 37 weeks) *possible*
No Guidance (#27, 36 weeks) *likely*
Senorita (#33, 34 weeks) *unlikely*
Only Human (#39, 34 weeks) *unlikely*
Ballin' (#14, 30 weeks) *possible*
Hot (#46, 26 weeks) *unlikely*
Good As Hell (#20, 25 weeks) *unlikely*
One Man Band (#38, 25 weeks) *unlikely*
Circles (#3, 24 weeks) *possible*
Even Though I'm Leaving (#47, 24 weeks) *unlikely*
Hot Girl Bummer (#16, 22 weeks) *possible*
Memories (#4, 21 weeks) *possible*
Bones (#18, 21 weeks) *possible*
Bop (#15, 20 weeks) *possible*
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
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Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Feb 18, 2020 19:49:21 GMT -5
IDC may not be as unlikely as we think at the rate it's been going lol, we'll have to see whether it survives the album bombs or not though
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