2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[mikerivera]

Well, if you mean on the official YE, the next closest songs were Miss Me (2010), Little Talks (2012), and Drink a Beer (2014).

If you mean the J-D lists, Use Somebody and Rolling in the Deep would’ve missed anyways. As for 2014, because the back half of the year was so much stronger than the beginning, the bottom 3 on the official YE wouldn’t have even made it. Thus, taking Radioactive out of the picture would’ve made I Don’t Dance the #100 song.

This is just looking at quick listings. Obviously, if the 25/52 rule had been around longer, all the songs beneath them would’ve had higher chart positions, and some might’ve even gotten an extra week or two before going recurrent. But it’s really hard to account for that.

[inverse]

^ yeah I was curious about the official YE's. Pretty sure the next closest songs in the other three years were This Is Your Night (1997), Stop (1998), and Fresh Azimiz (2006) so those would probably have all made the official YE (in the first case for the second time) had the 52/25 rule always been there.

On the J-D lists all three of the entries form before 2010 would miss anyway.

Also I thought I Don't Dance & Somethin' Bad made the J-D one anyway in the same position with Love Me Harder at 100

[Groovy]

What are the odds that positions pulls a Hello and gets enough points to make the year-end?

[joshtheking]

Oct 26, 2020 10:26:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that positions pulls a Hello and gets enough points to make the year-end?

Very unlikely.

[GP]

Oct 26, 2020 10:26:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that positions pulls a Hello and gets enough points to make the year-end?

unlikely especially considering it's nowhere near Hello's level

[Deleted]

Oct 26, 2020 12:36:30 GMT -5 GP said:

Oct 26, 2020 10:26:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that positions pulls a Hello and gets enough points to make the year-end?

unlikely especially considering it's nowhere near Hello's level

Let us not forget that Hello sold over a million copies in it's first week, something that could never happen today.

[inverse]

We need to start talking about the possibility that Only Human can finish at #78 again. Right now it's at 72 and it will be passed for sure by Mood, Popstar, Got What I Got and One Of Them Girls. The Woo is also possible. However what's more important is that it's in an insanely close clump of songs. It looks like AIWFCIY, Panini, I Hope You're Happy Now, Only Human, Hot, You Should Be Sad, The Bigger Picture, stuck with u and 3 Pop Smoke songs Dior, The Woo and Mood Swings are all gonna be within 10,000 points of each other and thus we got like 11 songs that could be in any order and only one of them can be #78. But I really hope it happens.

It'd also be cool if Pop Smoke's 3 songs were right next to each other but I think The Woo is probably gonna be a few spots ahead of the others. Certainly seems like Lovin' On You won't make it to the other 2 Luke Combs songs

[lights]

[Groovy]

I’m shocked that If the World Was Ending went recurrent this week, it has a pretty strong presence on radio.

[Abbaschand]

Year-End update!

We're on the endgame now, boys.

Point system:
1 = 10
2-3 = 9
4-5 = 8
6-10 = 7
11-15 = 6
16-20 = 5.5
21-25 = 5
26-30 = 4.5
31-40 = 4
41-50 = 3.5
51-60 = 3
61-70 = 2.5
71-80 = 2
81-90 = 1.5
91-100 = 1

Projected cutoff = 53.5
NEW Tracking cutoff = 37.5 (Previously 25)

Week 48/50 of 52/54
No. | Comb. No. | Song | Pts | Comb. Pts
1 2 Blinding Lights 348 348
2 1 Circles 344 360
3 3 Don't Start Now 286.5 293.5
4 4 The Box 279.5 279.5
5 5 Adore You 256.5 256.5
6 6 Life Is Good 240.5 240.5
7 7 Rockstar 226 226
8 8 The Bones 214.5 221.5
9 10 I Hope 214 214
10 11 Say So 204 204
11 12 What's Poppin 202 202
12 9 Memories 198.5 214.5
13 14 Intentions 190 190
14 15 Roses 185.5 185.5
15 16 Savage 184.5 184.5
16 13 Someone You Loved 176 195
17 18 Everything I Wanted 167 176
18 17 Dance Monkey 166.5 177
19 21 Blueberry Faygo 165 165
20 19 Falling 165 167
21 22 Before You Go 161.5 161.5
22 23 Watermelon Sugar 157 157
23 20 Roxanne 154.5 165
24 26 Break My Heart 146.5 146.5
25 24 Hot Girl Bummer 142 149
26 28 Chasin' You 135.5 135.5
27 25 10K Hours 133 147
28 27 Ballin' 132.5 143
29 29 Heartless 128.5 128.5
30 30 High Fashion 124.5 124.5
31 32 My Oh My 122 122
32 33 Go Crazy 121 121
33 34 Savage Love 120 120
34 38 Toosie Slide 116.5 116.5
35 31 BOP 116 124
36 39 Death Bed 112.5 112.5
37 35 Lose You to Love Me 104.5 119.5
38 37 No Guidance 104.5 118.5
39 40 WAP 103 103
40 36 Good As Hell 101.5 118.5
41 41 Rain On Me 100 100
42 43 Nobody But You 93 93
43 44 For the Night 90 90
44 47 We Paid 88 88
45 50 If The World Was Ending 87.5 87.5
46 51 Laugh Now Cry Later 87 87
47 42 Woah 86.5 97.5
48 49 RITMO 86.5 87.5
49 52 Come & Go 86 86
50 54 Sunday Best 81.5 81.5
51 48 Heart On Ice 81.5 87.5
52 55 Dynamite 81 81
53 56 One Margarita 79 79
54 57 Die from a Broken Heart 79 79
55 58 Mood 77 77
56 46 Highest In the Room 77 89
57 60 Got What I Got 76.5 76.5
58 61 Party Girl 76.5 76.5
59 62 Popstar 76 76
60 63 Hard to Forget 75.5 75.5
61 45 Senorita 73.5 89.5
62 64 Godzilla 73.5 73.5
63 66 Emotionally Scarred 72 72
64 53 Bad Guy 71.5 83
65 67 The Bigger Picture 70 70
66 68 The Woo 70 70
67 69 Dior 70 70
68 70 Mood Swings 69.5 69.5
69 72 Sum 2 Prove 69 69
70 73 I Hope You're Happy Now 69 69
71 74 Supalonely 68.5 68.5
72 75 One of Them Girls 68 68
73 76 Does to Me 66.5 66.5
74 77 Stuck with U 65.5 65.5
75 78 Suicidal 65.5 65.5
76 59 Trampoline 64.5 76.5
77 79 Yummy 64 64
78 82 Be Like That 63 63
79 83 The Scotts 62.5 62.5
80 84 Wishing Well 62.5 62.5
81 85 Rags 2 Riches 62.5 62.5
82 86 You Should Be Sad 62.5 62.5
83 87 Bluebird 62.5 62.5
84 88 Walk Em Down 62 62
85 91 Puny Fairy 60 60
86 71 One Man Band 59 69.5
87 65 Truth Hurts 58.5 72.5
88 92 Homesick 57 58
89 95 Slide 56 56
90 96 Lovin' On You 55.5 55.5
91 97 Cool Again 55.5 55.5
92 80 Bandit 54 63.5
93 98 Tap In 54 54
94 81 Only Human 53 63.5
95 99 Out West 53 53
96 101 Said Sum 52 52
97 102 More Hearts Than Mine 52 52
98 103 Beer Can't Fix 51.5 51.5
99 104 Be a Light 51.5 51.5
100 105 Cardigan 51 51
101 106 More Than My Hometown 51 51
102 107 ily 50.5 50.5
103 93 Juicy 50 56.5
104 90 Hot 49.5 60
105 108 Girls In the Hood 49.5 49.5
106 109 Lemonade 48.5 48.5
107 89 Panini 48 61
108 110 Bang! 45 45
109 94 Even Though I'm Leaving 45 56
110 100 AIWFCIY 44.5 52.5
111 111 One Beer 41.5 41.5
112 112 Midnight Sky 39.5 39.5
113 113 Greece 39 39
114 114 I Should Probably Go to Bed 38 38

Greatest Gainers:
1. Mood (+59)
2. Dynamite (+58)
3. Laugh Now Cry Later (+53)
4. WAP (+37)
5. One of Them Girls (+34)

Locked this month:
Got What I Got
The Woo
Wishing Well
Mood Swings
Laugh Now Cry Later
Rags 2 Riches
Cool Again
One of Them Girls
Dynamite
Be Like That
Lovin' On You
Tap In
Mood

On the brink:
More Hearts Than Mine
Beer Can't Fix
Be a Light
All I Want for Christmas Is You

[Abbaschand]

And now, my (almost) final 2020 year-end projection.

1 Circles
2 Blinding Lights
3 Don't Start Now
4 The Box
5 Adore You
6 Life Is Good
7 Rockstar
8 I Hope
9 The Bones
10 Memories
11 What's Poppin
12 Say So
13 Someone You Loved
14 Roses
15 Intentions
16 Savage
17 Dance Monkey
18 Everything I Wanted
19 Before You Go
20 Watermelon Sugar
21 Falling
22 Roxanne
23 Blueberry Faygo
24 Break My Heart
25 hot girl bummer
26 10,000 Hours
27 Ballin'
28 Savage Love
29 Chasin' You
30 Go Crazy
31 Heartless
32 High Fashion
33 BOP
34 My Oh My
35 WAP
36 Lose You to Love Me
37 Good As Hell
38 No Guidance
39 Toosie Slide
40 Death Bed
41 Laugh Now Cry Later
42 For the Night
43 Rain On Me
44 Woah
45 Mood
46 Come & Go
47 Dynamite
48 Nobody But You
49 Senorita
50 Highest In the Room
51 We Paid
52 Got What I Got
53 Heart On Ice
54 RITMO
55 If The World Was Ending
56 Popstar
57 Bad Guy
58 Sunday Best
59 One of Them Girls
60 One Margarita
61 Die from a Broken Heart
62 The Woo
63 Mood Swings
64 Trampoline
65 Party Girl
66 Hard to Forget
67 Be Like That
68 Godzilla
69 Truth Hurts
70 The Bigger Picture
71 Emotionally Scarred
72 Rags 2 Riches
73 Dior
74 One Man Band
75 Sum 2 Prove
76 I Hope You're Happy Now
77 Wishing Well
78 Supalonely
79 Does to Me
80 Stuck with U
81 Suicidal
82 Yummy
83 Bandit
84 Only Human
85 The Scotts
86 Lemonade
87 You Should Be Sad
88 Bluebird
89 Lovin' On You
90 Said Sum
91 Walk Em Down
92 Panini
93 Tap In
94 Hot
95 More Than My Hometown
96 Puny Fairy
97 ily
98 Homesick
99 Juicy
100 Even Though I'm Leaving
-----
101 Slide
102 Cool Again
103 Cardigan
104 Bang!
105 Out West

[spicymapping]

oh my f**king god said sum's gonna do it

TL,DR: 
Locked: Rags2Riches, Wishing Well
Added: Midnight Sky, Holy, Pretty Heart

1. Blinding Lights (=) 1,199,662
2. Circles (=) 1,099,876
3. The Box (=) 1,063,811
4. Don't Start Now (=) 912,853
5. Rockstar (=) 832,222
6. Adore You (+1) 770,664
7. Life Is Good (-1) 765,069
8. Say So (=) 670,907
9. The Bones (=) 654,324
10. Memories (=) 651,155
11. I Hope (+1) 631,186
12. WHATS POPPIN (+2) 619,130
13. Savage (-2) 613,680
14. Someone You Loved (-1) 606,735
15. Intentions (=) 559,364
16. Dance Monkey (=) 556,098
17. Roses (+1) 538,413
18. Roxanne (-1) 534,340
19. Everything I Wanted (=) 521,439
20. Watermelon Sugar (=) 520,317
21. Before You Go (+1) 499,818
22. WAP (+1) 494,216
23. Falling (-2) 484,502
24. Blueberry Faygo (=) 467,843
25. 10,000 Hours (=) 457,214
26. Hot Girl Bummer (=) 441,916
27. Ballin' (=) 438,166
28. Break My Heart (+1) 408,766
29. Toosie Slide (-1) 405,194
30. Chasin' You (=) 396,554
31. Heartless (=) 388,485
32. Bop (=) 383,054
33. Savage Love (+4) 374,818
34. Lose You To Love Me (-1) 373,297
35. Good As Hell (-1) 369,350
36. My Oh My (-1) 363,087
37. Go Crazy (+2) 358,334
38. High Fashion (-2) 358,117
39. Dynamite (+1) 356,592
40. No Guidance (-2) 349,316
41. Laugh Now, Cry Later (+2) 323,819
42. Death Bed (-1) 319,952
43. Rain On Me (-1) 303,153
44. Woah (=) 293,639
45. Señorita (=) 271,188
46. RITMO (=) 270,197
47. For The Night (+6) 268,147
48. Highest In The Room (-1) 264,202
49. Nobody But You (-1) 263,628
50. Heart On Ice (-1) 257,849
51. If The World Was Ending (-1) 254,182
52. Bad Guy (-1) 253,394
53. We Paid (-1) 252,306
54. Come & Go (+1) 247,843
55. Mood (+10) 245,239
56. Sunday Best (-2) 237,389
57. Party Girl (-1) 234,247
58. Die From A Broken Heart (-1) 233,557
59. Trampoline (-1) 232,506
60. One Margarita (-1) 226,993
61. Got What I Got (+9) 223,113
62. Truth Hurts (-2) 221,282
63. Hard To Forget (-2) 220,113
64. Emotionally Scarred (-2) 219,317
65. Popstar (+3) 218,527
66. The Bigger Picture (+1) 218,338
67. I Hope You're Happy Now (-4) 217,725
68. Godzilla (-4) 217,342
69. Yummy (-3) 214,852
70. One Man Band (-1) 208,636
71. Stuck With U (=) 207,789
72. One Of Them Girls (+7) 204,890
73. Suicidal (-1) 201,992
74. The Woo (+3) 201,826
75. Sum 2 Prove (-2) 200,888
76. Supalonely (-2) 198,221
77. Mood Swings (+7) 198,177
78. Bandit (-3) 197,769
79. Dior (-3) 194,380
80. You Should Be Sad (-2) 190,343
81. Bluebird (-1) 189,530
82. Hot (-1) 189,430
83. The Scotts (-1) 189,249
84. Only Human (-1) 188,967
85. All I Want For Christmas Is You (=) 187,492
86. Homesick (=) 187,299
87. Panini (=) 187,261
88. Does To Me (=) 185,175
89. Rags2Riches (+4) 184,434
90. Wishing Well (+1) 182,743
91. P*$$y Fairy (-2) 182,547
92. Juicy (-2) 176,936

--PROJECTED CUTOFF - 175K POINTS--

93. Be Like That (+8) 174,773
94. Slide (-2) 174,653
95. Walk Em Down (-1) 173,813
96. Even Though I'm Leaving (-1) 171,964
97. Tusa (-1) 167,560
98. Cool Again (-1) 165,327
99. Best On Earth (-1) 165,173
100. Lovin' On You (+4) 165,093

101. Out West (-2) 164,567
102. ily (+6) 163,389
103. More Hearts Than Mine (-3) 162,364
104. More Than My Hometown (+8) 159,002
105. Kinfolks (-3) 158,889
106. Tap In (+3) 158,785
107. Cardigan (-1) 158,609
108. Be A Light (-5) 158,306
109. Said Sum (+6) 155,485
110. I Love My Country (-5) 154,496
111. Girls In The Hood (=) 153,116
112. I Don't Care (-5) 152,321

116. Lemonade (+23) 141,318
117. One Beer (+7) 140,883
120. Bang! (+11) 138,366
141. Greece (+4) 119,361
145. Dollaz On My Head (+1) 118,090
147. I Should Probably Go To Bed (+7) 110,781
149. Midnight Sky (NEW) 108,155
154. Holy (NEW) 104,034
156. Pretty Heart 156 (NEW) 102,349

[Deleted]

Part of me just wants More Than My Hometown to make the year end list just because it wouldn't feel right for Morgan Wallen to only have gotten one year end hit in a year when he's had 4 songs crack the Top 40 (Chasin' You, Heartless, 7 Summers, More Than My Hometown). It just wouldn't really feel representative of the amount of success he's had this year.

Also I just love the song too, which helps.

Luckily it seems like it's more likely to make it than not, but I'm not sure it's a lock yet or anything.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Oct 27, 2020 8:23:04 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I’m shocked that If the World Was Ending went recurrent this week, it has a pretty strong presence on radio.

But it lost a fair amount of audience during the week.

[Deleted]

Here's week 50 of my 2020 year end predictions. I have added a section listing songs that will lock and pass the cutoff by the final tracking week.

Locked This Week: Mood Swings

Will Lock Next Week: Rags2Riches, Wishing Well & Be Like That

Will Lock In 2 Weeks: ily

Will Pass The Projected Cutoff In 2 Weeks: More Than My Hometown, Lovin' On You, & Said Sum

Dropouts:

If The World Was Ending 2567 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #54.)

Cool Again 1659 (Will most likely miss the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #108.)

1 Blinding Lights 11998 (+220)

2 Circles 11226 (+140)
3 The Box 10737 -
4 Don't Start Now 9128 (+105)
5 ROCKSTAR 7915 (+195)
6 Life Is Good 7688 -
7 Adore You 7614 (+113)
8 Say So 6575 -

9 The Bones 6521 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 10 CUTOFF - - - - -

10 Memories 6514 -
11 I Hope 6224 (+210)
12 Someone You Loved 6108 -
13 WHATS POPPIN 6026 (+145)
14 Savage 5919 -
15 Intentions 5562 -
16 Dance Monkey 5535 -
17 Roxanne 5344 -
18 Roses 5273 (+110)

19 Everything I Wanted 5227 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 20 CUTOFF - - - - -

20 Watermelon Sugar 5028 (+180)
21 Falling 4919 -
22 Before You Go 4770 (+175)
23 WAP 4665 (+230)
24 Blueberry Faygo 4640 -
25 10,000 Hours 4569 -
26 Hot Girl Bummer 4465 -
27 Ballin' 4343 -

28 Toosie Slide 4061 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 30 CUTOFF - - - - -

29 Break My Heart 3962 (+109)
30 Chasin' You 3898 -
31 BOP 3857 -
32 Heartless 3831 -
33 Lose You To Love Me 3797 -
34 Good As Hell 3780 -
35 My Oh My 3653 -
36 Savage Love 3624 (+215)
37 No Guidance 3607 -
38 Dynamite 3532 (+205)

39 High Fashion 3515 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 40 CUTOFF - - - - -

40 Go Crazy 3430 (+160)
41 Death Bed 3092 -
42 Laugh Now Cry Later 3035 (+225)
43 Woah 2998 -
44 Rain On Me 2969 -
45 Senorita 2843 -
46 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2763 -
47 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 2702 -

48 Heart On Ice 2700 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 50 CUTOFF - - - - -

49 Nobody But You 2685 -
50 Bad Guy 2654 -
51 If The World Was Ending 2567 -
52 For The Night 2564 (+170)
53 We Paid 2492 -
54 Trampoline 2434 -
55 Come And Go 2377 (+131)

56 Die From A Broken Heart 2363 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 60 CUTOFF - - - - -

57 Mood 2341 (+275)
58 Sunday Best 2299 -
59 Godzilla 2296 -
60 Truth Hurts 2290 -
61 One Margarita 2248 -
62 Party Girl 2234 -
63 One Man Band 2229 -
64 Emotionally Scarred 2228 -
65 Got What I Got 2219 (+155)

66 Yummy 2193 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 70 CUTOFF - - - - -

67 I Hope You're Happy Now 2139 -
68 POPSTAR 2137 (+90)
69 The Bigger Picture 2125 (+59)
70 Hard To Forget 2116 -
71 Stuck With U 2108 -
72 Suicidal 2101 -
73 Sum 2 Prove 2071 -
74 One Of Them Girls 2057 (+150)
75 Bandit 2038 -
76 Dior 2021 -

77 Supalonely 2001 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 80 CUTOFF - - - - -

78 Only Human 1974 -
79 Hot 1968 -
80 The Woo 1963 (+112)
81 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1958 -
82 THE SCOTTS 1956 -
83 You Should Be Sad 1953 -
84 Homesick 1941 -
85 Panini 1935 -

86 Juicy 1926 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 90 CUTOFF - - - - -

87 P*$$y Fairy (OTW) 1925 -
88 Mood Swings 1912 (+100)
89 Bluebird 1870 -

90 Does To Me 1863 -

- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (1850 Points) - - - - -

91 Even Though I'm Leaving 1824 -
92 Rags2Riches 1796 (+103)
93 Slide 1789 -
94 Wishing Well 1776 (+77)

95 Walk Em Down 1753 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 100 CUTOFF - - - - -

96 Tusa 1734 -
97 Be Like That 1719 (+135)
98 Kinfolks 1715 -
99 OUT WEST 1714 -
100 BEST ON EARTH 1690 -
101 Be A Light 1661 -
102 Cool Again 1659 -
103 ily 1658 (+121)
104 More Hearts Than Mine 1633 -
105 Lovin' On You 1617 (+92)
106 I Don't Care 1612 -
107 I Love My Country 1605 -
108 Cardigan 1571 (+54)
109 More Than My Hometown 1565 (+119)
110 Beer Can't Fix 1547 -
111 Tap In 1535 (+80)
112 Girls In The Hood 1525 (+53)
113 Said Sum 1521 (+129)

114 Ridin' Roads 1509 -

- - - - - DROPOUT CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

One Beer 1426 (+104)
Lemonade 1369 (+182)
Bang! 1355 (+123)

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 9:29:12 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Part of me just wants More Than My Hometown to make the year end list just because it wouldn't feel right for Morgan Wallen to only have gotten one year end hit in a year when he's had 4 songs crack the Top 40 (Chasin' You, Heartless, 7 Summers, More Than My Hometown). It just wouldn't really feel representative of the amount of success he's had this year.

Also I just love the song too, which helps.

Luckily it seems like it's more likely to make it than not, but I'm not sure it's a lock yet or anything.

Assuming a 52 week chart year (ends on 11/14/2020), More Than My Hometown will make the top 100 by the end of the year, but it won't be locked (can still miss due to error). Assuming a 53 week chart year (ends on 11/21/2020), it will definitely lock and make the 2020 year end list.

[Deleted]

It's a shame One Beer is almost guaranteed to get caught between years. I like the song a fair bit, and it would've been nice for Lauren Alaina to get another year end hit.

Would One Beer have any chance to make the list if it's a 53 week chart year?

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 9:39:03 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

It's a shame One Beer is almost guaranteed to get caught between years. I like the song a fair bit, and it would've been nice for Lauren Alaina to get another year end hit.

Would One Beer have any chance to make the list if it's a 53 week chart year?

With a 53 week year, it has a very small chance to make the cut, but it would need to start rising immediately. That one week it got knocked off the charts because of Taylor Swift's Folklore album bomb is what will most likely cause One Beer to be caught between years (assuming a 53 week year).

[spicymapping]

also, here's the continuous increase results:

1. Blinding Lights 1,243,576
2. Circles 1,126,975
3. The Box 1,063,811
4. Don't Start Now 923,118
5. Rockstar 868,008
6. Adore You 792,109
7. Life Is Good 765,069
8. I Hope 676,466
9. Say So 670,907
10. The Bones 654,324
11. Memories 651,155
12. Whats Poppin 645,527
13. Savage 613,680
14. Someone You Loved 606,735
15. Intentions 559,364
16. Dance Monkey 556,098
17. Watermelon Sugar 553,441
18. Roses 548,322
19. WAP 535,876
20. Before You Go 534,379
21. Roxanne 534,340
22. Everything I Wanted 521,439
23. Falling 484,502
24. Blueberry Faygo 467,843
25. 10,000 Hours 457,214
26. Hot Girl Bummer 441,916
27. Ballin' 438,166
28. Break My Heart 418,467
29. Savage Love 415,748
30. Toosie Slide 405,194
31. Chasin' You 396,554
32. Dynamite 389,371
33. Go Crazy 388,657
34. Heartless 388,485
35. Bop 383,054
36. Lose You To Love Me 373,297
37. Good As Hell 369,350
38. Laugh Now, Cry Later 366,384
39. My Oh My 363,087
40. High Fashion 358,117
41. No Guidance 349,316
42. Death Bed 319,952
43. For The Night 306,279
44. Mood 305,227
45. Rain On Me 303,153
46. Woah 293,639
47. Come & Go 274,211
48. Señorita 271,188
49. RITMO 270,197
50. Highest In The Room 264,202
51. Nobody But You 263,628
52. Heart On Ice 257,849
53. If The World Was Ending 254,182
54. Bad Guy 253,394
55. We Paid 252,306
56. Got What I Got 251,131
57. Sunday Best 237,389
58. Party Girl 234,247
59. Die From A Broken Heart 233,557
60. Popstar 233,204
61. Trampoline 232,506
62. One Of Them Girls 231,739
63. One Margarita 226,993
64. The Woo 225,133
65. The Bigger Picture 223,725
66. Truth Hurts 221,282
67. Hard To Forget 220,113
68. Emotionally Scarred 219,317
69. I Hope You're Happy Now 217,725
70. Godzilla 217,342
71. Mood Swings 216,117
72. Yummy 214,852
73. One Man Band 208,636
74. Stuck With U 207,789
75. Rags2Riches 204,984
76. Suicidal 201,992
77. Sum 2 Prove 200,888
78. Be Like That 200,738
79. Wishing Well 198,244
80. Supalonely 198,221
81. Bandit 197,769
82. Dior 194,380
83. You Should Be Sad 190,343
84. Bluebird 189,530
85. Hot 189,430
86. The Scotts 189,249
87. Only Human 188,967
88. ily 187,698
89. All I Want For Christmas Is You 187,492
90. Said Sum 187,473
91. Homesick 187,299
92. Panini 187,261
93. Does To Me 185,175
94. More Than My Hometown 183,073
95. P*$$y Fairy 182,547
96. Lovin' On You 180,537
97. Juicy 176,936
98. Lemonade 176,042
99. Slide 174,653
100. Walk Em Down 173,813

101. Tap In 172,943
102. Even Though I'm Leaving 171,964
103. Tusa 167,560
104. Cool Again 165,327
105. Best On Earth 165,173
106. Out West 164,567
107. Bang! 163,860
108. One Beer 162,985
109. Cardigan 162,965
110. More Hearts Than Mine 162,364
111. Kinfolks 158,889
112. Be A Light 158,306
113. Girls In The Hood 157,554
114. I Love My Country 154,496
115. I Don't Care 152,321

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 27, 2020 9:39:03 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

It's a shame One Beer is almost guaranteed to get caught between years. I like the song a fair bit, and it would've been nice for Lauren Alaina to get another year end hit.

Would One Beer have any chance to make the list if it's a 53 week chart year?

I mean even if it did survive the positions album bomb, it wouldn't have enough points to make it either way. It would have to shoot up to the top 10 next week and stay to have a chance at making it.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 9:43:35 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 27, 2020 9:39:03 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

It's a shame One Beer is almost guaranteed to get caught between years. I like the song a fair bit, and it would've been nice for Lauren Alaina to get another year end hit.

Would One Beer have any chance to make the list if it's a 53 week chart year?

With a 53 week year, it has a very small chance to make the cut, but it would need to start rising immediately. That one week it got knocked off the charts because of Taylor Swift's Folklore album bomb is what will most likely cause One Beer to be caught between years (assuming a 53 week year).

Unfortunately, One Beer is probably not going to reach it's country radio peak for at least another 6-7 weeks. Could be longer depending on how fast the songs above it are pushed. It's probably going to keep just moving up a little bit each week like it has been until it makes the #1 push on radio.

[lights]

Aug 13, 2020 16:42:53 GMT -5 lights said:

Aug 13, 2020 11:21:48 GMT -5 felle said:

lol cardigan will 100% make the year end

Bookmarked.

As promised, I am now here from the future to inform you that it isn't making the year-end.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 9:45:55 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Oct 27, 2020 9:39:03 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

It's a shame One Beer is almost guaranteed to get caught between years. I like the song a fair bit, and it would've been nice for Lauren Alaina to get another year end hit.

Would One Beer have any chance to make the list if it's a 53 week chart year?

I mean even if it did survive the positions album bomb, it wouldn't have enough points to make it either way. It would have to shoot up to the top 10 next week and stay to have a chance at making it.

I would be surprised if it dropped off the charts entirely, as it's still being pushed on country radio, but you are right that it's probably not going to be able to rebound high enough by the end of the year anyway. It's really just wishful thinking on my part, but I hope it has even a small chance. 

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 9:48:15 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Oct 27, 2020 9:43:35 GMT -5 @delphox said:

With a 53 week year, it has a very small chance to make the cut, but it would need to start rising immediately. That one week it got knocked off the charts because of Taylor Swift's Folklore album bomb is what will most likely cause One Beer to be caught between years (assuming a 53 week year).

Unfortunately, One Beer is probably not going to reach it's country radio peak for at least another 6-7 weeks. Could be longer depending on how fast the songs above it are pushed. It's probably going to keep just moving up a little bit each week like it has been until it makes the #1 push on radio.

Yeah the song just had really bad timing when it came to debuting on the hot 100. If it charted earlier in the year, it would have comfortably made the 2020 year end list with 25-30 weeks on the charts (that probably would have equated to at least a top 70 finish).

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 9:54:27 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 27, 2020 9:48:15 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Unfortunately, One Beer is probably not going to reach it's country radio peak for at least another 6-7 weeks. Could be longer depending on how fast the songs above it are pushed. It's probably going to keep just moving up a little bit each week like it has been until it makes the #1 push on radio.

Yeah the song just had really bad timing when it came to debuting on the hot 100. If it charted earlier in the year, it would have comfortably made the 2020 year end list with 25-30 weeks (that probably would equated to at least a top 70 finish).

It's probably going to end up having had a very similar chart run to I Hope You're Happy Now, but not during the right time of year to make the list like that one is.

[mikerivera]

Oct 27, 2020 9:29:12 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Part of me just wants More Than My Hometown to make the year end list just because it wouldn't feel right for Morgan Wallen to only have gotten one year end hit in a year when he's had 4 songs crack the Top 40 (Chasin' You, Heartless, 7 Summers, More Than My Hometown). It just wouldn't really feel representative of the amount of success he's had this year.

Also I just love the song too, which helps.

Luckily it seems like it's more likely to make it than not, but I'm not sure it's a lock yet or anything.

Blame Wallen’s team for mismanaging the singles then. They introduced More Than My Hometown too early into Chasin You’s run, and then released 7 Summers right before they were gonna start promoting MTMH. If you wanted multiple YE hits, More Than My Hometown probably should’ve been dropped as a single once 7S’s streaming proved to be so massive. By the time they finally start promoting 7S, its streaming will probably be gone. Also, how are you gonna release a song called “7 Summers” after summer is already over. 

[mikerivera]

Oct 26, 2020 10:26:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that positions pulls a Hello and gets enough points to make the year-end?

More likely gonna be a Thank U, Next situation. #1 debut that honestly isn’t that strong, but the competition is so weak that it sits at the top spot for a decent amount of time. Comes out too late to make the first year end, and ranks highly on the second year end (but misses the top 10 because it came out too early, and because Grande doesn’t have longevity). Keep in mind that Hello was a rare phenomenon that probably won’t ever happen again, especially due to the decline of sales and the increased point cutoff of the year end charts (it used to be about 150k before 2017, and about 120k before 2013). 

If there are any parallels between Hello and Positions, it’ll be that both debuted at #1 at the same time as a #2 debut (placing my bets on Forever After All)

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2020 10:03:20 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Oct 27, 2020 9:29:12 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Part of me just wants More Than My Hometown to make the year end list just because it wouldn't feel right for Morgan Wallen to only have gotten one year end hit in a year when he's had 4 songs crack the Top 40 (Chasin' You, Heartless, 7 Summers, More Than My Hometown). It just wouldn't really feel representative of the amount of success he's had this year.

Also I just love the song too, which helps.

Luckily it seems like it's more likely to make it than not, but I'm not sure it's a lock yet or anything.

Blame Wallen’s team for mismanaging the singles then. They introduced More Than My Hometown too early into Chasin You’s run, and then released 7 Summers right before they were gonna start promoting MTMH. If you wanted multiple YE hits, More Than My Hometown probably should’ve been dropped as a single once 7S’s streaming proved to be so massive. By the time they finally start promoting 7S, its streaming will probably be gone. Also, how are you gonna release a song called “7 Summers” after summer is already over. 

The only mistake I could see they might have made was not pushing More Than My Hometown on radio sooner, but I don't think anyone expected 7 Summers to take off the way it did. Also, 7 Summers was released on August 14th, so it technically was released before summer was over.

It's still my expectation that More Than My Hometown will scrape on this year and 7 Summers will make it next year once it gets it's radio push, but we'll see what happens.

[Deleted]

Here's some analysis on what I think the bottom of the 2020 year end list will look like, using my predictions as a reference:

Even Though I'm Leaving will likely be #95.

More Than My Hometown, Lovin' On You, and Slide will occupy spots #96-98 (not in that specific order).

Walk Em Down will probably be #99.

#100 will be between Said Sum, Lemonade, Tusa, Kinfolks, and OUT WEST (my predictions lean towards Said Sum but it can go any way).

[tanooki]

Week 50/52 (96.2%)
Formula: Paid/1250 + Free/1875 + Programmed/2500 + Radio/6000 + Sales/5
Cutoff: 175,000 points (margin of error +/- 7.5%.. 188.1k - 161.9k)
Locked this week: Wishing Well, Rags2Riches

Top 10:
1 Mood 27,590
2 WAP 22,513
3 Laugh Now Cry Later 22,363
4 Blinding Lights 22,157
5 Savage Love 21,233
6 I Hope 20,887
7 Dynamite 19,597
8 Rockstar 19,387
9 Holy 18,950
10 Lemonade 17,707

LW TW ARTIST - SONG POINTS
1 1 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 1,224,709
2 2 Post Malone - Circles 1,199,251
3 3 Roddy Ricch - The Box 1,146,190
4 4 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 959,185
5 5 Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good 814,370
6 6 DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR 805,693
7 7 Harry Styles - Adore You 793,265
8 8 Maroon 5 - Memories 732,940
9 9 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 687,591
10 10 Maren Morris - The Bones 681,598

11 11 Doja Cat - Say So 676,446
12 12 Gabby Barrett - I Hope 641,253
16 13 Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez, Lil Wayne - WHATS POPPIN 614,418
13 14 Tones & I - Dance Monkey 614,329
14 15 Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce - Savage 614,136
15 16 Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 608,343
17 17 Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions 579,587
18 18 Billie Eilish - everything I wanted 570,693
19 19 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 545,053
20 20 Trevor Daniel - Falling 516,314

21 21 Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 513,804
22 22 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 505,521
26 23 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 484,001
23 24 blackbear - hot girl bummer 483,105
24 25 Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin' 482,015
25 26 Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 478,993
27 27 Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - WAP 469,210
28 28 The Weeknd - Heartless 429,603
29 29 DaBaby - BOP 422,926
30 30 Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 418,755

31 31 Lizzo - Good As Hell 416,643
32 32 Drake - Toosie Slide 408,906
33 33 Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 408,249
34 34 Morgan Wallen - Chasin You 395,604
35 35 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 393,923
36 36 Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My 391,070
37 37 Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion 377,981
38 38 Jawsh 685, Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) 361,589
39 39 BTS - Dynamite 359,817
40 40 Chris Brown, Young Thug - Go Crazy 342,958

41 41 Lil Baby - Woah 325,341
42 42 Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed 317,269
43 43 Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita 311,837
50 44 Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later 302,233
44 45 Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 299,143
45 46 Lady Gaga, Ariana Grande - Rain On Me 293,390
46 47 The Black Eyed Peas, J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 289,629
47 48 Billie Eilish - bad guy 280,963
48 49 Blake Shelton, Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You 280,425
49 50 Rod Wave - Heart on Ice 279,932

51 51 SHAED - Trampoline 262,617
57 52 Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby, DaBaby - For the Night 253,661
52 53 JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels - If the World Was Ending 250,967
53 54 Lizzo - Truth Hurts 250,374
54 55 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - We Paid 245,545
55 56 Surfaces - Sunday Best 239,738
61 57 Juice WRLD, Marshmello - Come & Go 238,797
56 58 Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla 238,132
58 59 Justin Bieber - Yummy 235,750
59 60 Old Dominion - One Man Band 234,396

77 61 24kGoldn ft. iann dior - Mood 233,251
60 62 Maddie & Tae - Die From a Broken Heart 228,379
62 63 StaySolidRocky - Party Girl 221,578
63 64 Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit 221,407
64 65 Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove 220,914
65 66 Luke Bryan - One Margarita 218,494
66 67 YNW Melly, Juice WRLD - Suicidal 218,350
67 68 Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred 217,459
68 69 Sam Hunt - Hard to Forget 216,521
69 70 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You 215,136

70 71 Lil Nas X - Panini 213,292
71 72 Carly Pearce, Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now 212,657
82 73 Jason Aldean - Got What I Got 212,144
72 74 Jonas Brothers - Only Human 210,914
73 75 Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot 210,716
78 76 DJ Khaled, Drake - Popstar 210,510
74 77 Halsey - You should be sad 207,252
75 78 Pop Smoke - Dior 205,816
76 79 Ariana Grande, Justin Bieber - stuck with u 205,678
83 80 Lil Baby - The Bigger Picture 203,688

79 81 BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely 200,704
80 82 Kane Brown - Homesick 197,827
81 83 THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott, Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS 197,612
84 84 Doja Cat, Tyga - Juicy 195,242
92 85 Lee Brice - One of Them Girls 193,201
90 86 Pop Smoke ft. 50 Cent, Roddy Ricch - The Woo 192,020
85 87 Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does to Me 191,920
86 88 Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving 190,503
91 89 Pop Smoke ft. Lil Tjay - Mood Swings 188,973
87 90 Jhene Aiko - P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW) 185,737

88 91 H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide 184,521
89 92 Miranda Lambert - Bluebird 183,071
97 93 Juice WRLD - Wishing Well 177,018
101 94 Rod Wave ft. ATR Son Son - Rags2Riches 176,430
93 95 NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down 175,402
--LOCKED CUTOFF: 175,000--
94 96 Karol G, Nicki Minaj - Tusa 174,126
95 97 Russ ft. BIA - BEST ON EARTH 173,307
96 98 Sam Hunt - Kinfolks 172,984
103 99 Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee, Khalid - Be Like That 169,685
98 100 JACKBOYS ft. Young Thug - OUT WEST 169,280

99 101 Ingrid Andress - More Hearts than Mine 169,077
100 102 Ed Sheeran ft. Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 168,936
102 103 Kane Brown - Cool Again 163,423
110 104 Luke Combs - Lovin On You 157,063
104 105 Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - Beer Can't Fix 155,987
107 106 Taylor Swift - cardigan 154,675
105 107 Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin, Keith Urban - Be a Light 153,153
115 108 surf mesa ft. Emilee - ily 152,361
106 109 Brenda Lee - Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 151,172
113 110 Saweetie - Tap In 150,079

108 111 Dustin Lynch - Ridin Roads 149,459
109 112 Florida Georgia Line - I Love My Country 149,422
122 113 Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown 149,334
128 114 Moneybagg Yo - Said Sum 144,517
111 115 Diplo, Morgan Wallen - Heartless 143,702
112 116 Taylor Swift - Lover 143,226
114 117 Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road 141,402
116 118 Halsey - Graveyard 140,614
117 119 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 139,878
118 120 Marshmello, Halsey - Be Kind 139,270

119 121 The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 139,005
120 122 Megan thee Stallion - Girls in the Hood 138,618
121 123 Jordan Davis - Slow Dancing in a Parking Lot 137,930
123 124 Travis Denning - After a Few 137,764
124 125 Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 136,710
125 126 Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 134,768
146 127 Internet Money, Gunna ft. Don Toliver, NAV - Lemonade 133,773
126 128 Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication 133,115
127 129 Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill 132,032
129 130 Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 131,481

130 131 DaBaby - VIBEZ 131,133
131 132 Doja Cat ft. Gucci Mane - Like That 130,964
132 133 Brett Young - Catch 130,606
143 134 AJR - Bang! 130,407
142 135 HARDY ft. Lauren Alaina, Devin Dawson - One Beer 130,287
133 136 Juice WRLD - Righteous 129,771
134 137 6ix9ine - GOOBA 129,669
135 138 Luke Bryan - What She Wants Tonight 127,458
136 139 Bad Bunny - Vete 127,306
137 140 Keith Urban - God Whispered Your Name 126,310

138 141 Don Toliver - After Party 123,924
139 142 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 123,221
140 143 Jake Owen - Homemade 121,346
141 144 Lil Tecca - Ran$om 121,004
144 145 Bad Bunny - Yo Perreo Sola 117,896
145 146 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 117,281
147 147 Summer Walker ft. Bryson Tiller - Playing Games 114,654
148 148 Jason Aldean - We Back 112,744
149 149 Kenny Chesney - Here and Now 112,012
150 150 Chris Brown ft. Gunna - Heat 110,796

151 151 Demi Lovato - I Love Me 108,954
152 152 DJ Khaled, Drake - Greece 107,888
153 153 Gunna ft. Young Thug - DOLLAZ ON MY HEAD 106,935
163 154 Miley Cyrus - Midnight Sky 105,999
166 155 Dan + Shay - I Should Probably Go To Bed 104,493
154 156 Andy Williams - It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 102,565
155 157 PARTYNEXTDOOR ft. Rihanna - BELIEVE IT 101,648
156 158 Drake ft. Giveon - Chicago Freestyle 100,915
157 159 Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You 100,651
158 160 Don Toliver - No Idea 100,322

159 161 Ed Sheeran ft. Khalid - Beautiful People 99,848
192 162 Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy 98,737
160 163 Idina Menzel & AURORA - Into the Unknown 98,075
161 164 YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Make No Sense 98,019
162 165 Post Malone ft. Ozzy Osbourne, Travis Scott - Take What You Want 97,633
164 166 NLE Choppa - Camelot 96,862
165 167 Justin Moore - Why We Drink 95,991
167 168 twenty one pilots - Level of Concern 94,846
168 169 Lil Uzi Vert - That Way 94,671
180 170 Parker McCollum - Pretty Heart 94,029

189 171 Ava Max - Kings & Queens 92,823
169 172 Wham! - Last Christmas 92,435
178 173 Morgan Wallen - 7 Summers 92,233
170 174 Ed Sheeran ft. Camila Cabello, Cardi B - South of the Border 90,612
186 175 Blake Shelton ft. Gwen Stefani - Happy Anywhere 90,107
171 176 Young T, Bugsey ft. Headie One - Don't Rush 89,226
172 177 Thomas Rhett - Remember You Young 89,164
173 178 Khalid - Talk 87,827
174 179 Roddy Ricch ft. Gunna - Start Wit Me 87,743
200 180 Jameson Rodgers - Some Girls 87,235

175 181 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - Grace 87,070
176 182 DaniLeigh ft. Chris Brown - Easy 86,307
177 183 Riley Green - I Wish Grandpas Never Died 85,762
179 184 Migos ft. YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Need It 85,153
190 185 Lil Durk ft. Lil Baby, Polo G - 3 Headed Goat 85,066
181 186 Chris Janson - Done 84,958
182 187 Maroon 5 - Nobody's Love 84,373
183 188 Summer Walker ft. Usher - Come Thru 83,837
195 189 Topic, A7S - Breaking Me 83,185
184 190 Scotty McCreery - In Between 83,005

185 191 Layton Greene, Lil Baby, City Girls, PnB Rock - Leave Em Alone 81,544
187 192 Rod Wave - Girl of My Dreams 80,897
188 193 Jimmie Allen - Make Me Want To 80,856
205 194 Conan Gray - Heather 80,294
191 195 NAV ft. Travis Scott, Gunna - Turks 80,291
193 196 YNW Melly ft. 9lokknine - 223's 79,721
206 197 Jhene Aiko ft. H.E.R. - B.S. 79,126
194 198 Noah Cyrus ft. Leon Bridges - July 78,651
196 199 Kelsea Ballerini - homecoming queen? 77,273
197 200 Ashley McBryde - One Night Standards 76,802