2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[Groovy]

Nov 4, 2020 14:41:42 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 4, 2020 12:10:09 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Also, expect WAP to drop out of the top 10 once the streaming falls off. Radio is starting to drop it and the sales have collapsed.

Do you think that will endanger its 2021 YE changes, obviously?

I week ago I would've told you no but now it's up in the air. 

[joshtheking]

I called at the start that WAP would have a huge first couple of weeks but then quickly exit the charts. I'm thinking it will exit at 20-24 weeks

[Deleted]

Nov 4, 2020 16:15:53 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I called at the start that WAP would have a huge first couple of weeks but then quickly exit the charts. I'm thinking it will exit at 20-24 weeks

I recall someone saying somewhere (might've been on Pulse, might've been in a YouTube comment section) that shock value hits tend to have very high peaks but not a lot of longevity (for example, Anaconda peaked at #2, but only spent 22 weeks on the charts), and I think that's gonna play out with WAP. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if it misses the 2021 Year-End list.

[jodakyellow]

umm it’s already well past “a couple of good weeks” and “Anaconda”’s lifetime performance

[nathanalbright]

Nov 4, 2020 23:13:10 GMT -5 jodakyellow said:

umm it’s already well past “a couple of good weeks” and “Anaconda”’s lifetime performance

If you're going to drag someone at least quote them correctly; a couple of huge weeks is different than a couple of good weeks.

[jodakyellow]

Nov 5, 2020 0:33:01 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 4, 2020 23:13:10 GMT -5 jodakyellow said:

umm it’s already well past “a couple of good weeks” and “Anaconda”’s lifetime performance

If you're going to drag someone at least quote them correctly; a couple of huge weeks is different than a couple of good weeks.

Okay fine it’s already well past “a huge first couple of weeks”

[waluigionascooter]

Nov 4, 2020 16:39:32 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Nov 4, 2020 16:15:53 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I called at the start that WAP would have a huge first couple of weeks but then quickly exit the charts. I'm thinking it will exit at 20-24 weeks

I recall someone saying somewhere (might've been on Pulse, might've been in a YouTube comment section) that shock value hits tend to have very high peaks but not a lot of longevity (for example, Anaconda peaked at #2, but only spent 22 weeks on the charts), and I think that's gonna play out with WAP. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if it misses the 2021 Year-End list.

Idk about WAP, but I feel like Dynamite is gonna miss the 2021 list for some reason

[Groovy]

Nov 5, 2020 1:28:42 GMT -5 waluigionascooter said:

Nov 4, 2020 16:39:32 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I recall someone saying somewhere (might've been on Pulse, might've been in a YouTube comment section) that shock value hits tend to have very high peaks but not a lot of longevity (for example, Anaconda peaked at #2, but only spent 22 weeks on the charts), and I think that's gonna play out with WAP. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if it misses the 2021 Year-End list.

Idk about WAP, but I feel like Dynamite is gonna miss the 2021 list for some reason

Dynamite is in a slightly better situation than WAP, although it's not doing as well in streaming as WAP but it's good and it still has stable sales but it might not make it either. 

[xtynaaguilera99]

It seems like the “Positions” album bomb won’t take Circles out of the Hot 100, judging by the predictions.

[M5]

Nov 5, 2020 11:04:17 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

It seems like the “Positions” album bomb won’t take Circles out of the Hot 100, judging by the predictions.

I predicted that from the very beginning. Lol

[xtynaaguilera99]

Nov 5, 2020 11:06:01 GMT -5 M5 said:

Nov 5, 2020 11:04:17 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

It seems like the “Positions” album bomb won’t take Circles out of the Hot 100, judging by the predictions.

I predicted that from the very beginning. Lol

I think only Christmas songs will take it out of the charts.

[GP]

Nov 5, 2020 11:12:43 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

Nov 5, 2020 11:06:01 GMT -5 M5 said:

I predicted that from the very beginning. Lol

I think only Christmas songs will take it out of the charts.

if BL isn't taken our by XMAS songs I can only imagine how many weeks it will do

[M5]

Bl will survive Christmas

[rockgolf]

It's the penultimate week of the chart year, unless it's actually the ante-penultimate week of the chart year! In other words either the 2nd or 3rd last week of the chart year, depending on whether Billboard makes 2020 a 52 or 53-week year.

But you know that, so here's where I think things stand for the chart week of Nov 7, 2020:

So Luke Combs sneaks into the year-end list this week, only to be likely pushed out again in the last week. Three songs could still join the top 100: Tap In, Said Sum and Lemonade.

And here's a projection for the top 110 assuming next week is the last week of the year:

[eidde]

i wonder if BL could survive the 2021-2022 Christmas bomb

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2020 12:50:20 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

It's the penultimate week of the chart year, unless it's actually the ante-penultimate week of the chart year! In other words either the 2nd or 3rd last week of the chart year, depending on whether Billboard makes 2020 a 52 or 53-week year.

But you know that, so here's where I think things stand for the chart week of Nov 7, 2020:

So Luke Combs sneaks into the year-end list this week, only to be likely pushed out again in the last week. Three songs could still join the top 100: Tap In, Said Sum and Lemonade.

And here's a projection for the top 110 assuming next week is the last week of the year:

I feel like More Than My Hometown has a better chance of making it than Tap In. Mostly because More Than My Hometown already appears to be ahead in points and is gaining better position on the Hot 100 than Tap In right now.

[inverse]

Nov 5, 2020 13:11:34 GMT -5 eidde said:

i wonder if BL could survive the 2021-2022 Christmas bomb

i'm all for accepting Blinding Lights supremacy but might be reaching a bit thinking it'll still be on by then lmao

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2020 11:29:32 GMT -5 GP said:

Nov 5, 2020 11:12:43 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

I think only Christmas songs will take it out of the charts.

if BL isn't taken our by XMAS songs I can only imagine how many weeks it will do

It will just renter after Christmas? That happened last year with a ton of songs that were recurrent.

[GP]

Nov 5, 2020 11:47:45 GMT -5 M5 said:

Bl will survive Christmas

then I can see it charting until March/Drake album bomb

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 5, 2020 19:24:27 GMT -5 GP said:

Nov 5, 2020 11:47:45 GMT -5 M5 said:

Bl will survive Christmas

then I can see it charting until March/Drake album bomb

Drake is releasing his album in January (1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd or 29th), we don't know yet. The best scenario for BL would be the 29th, because the Grammys are 2 days later and if BL wins something, it'll get a boost.

Last this year's positions of Christmas songs in the top 25 (January 4):

#1, #2, #3, #4, #7, #11, #12, #15, #16, #21, #22, #24

BL probably won't be in the top 10, but top 25 is (for now) a sure thing.

[rockgolf]

Nov 5, 2020 13:33:04 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Nov 5, 2020 12:50:20 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

It's the penultimate week of the chart year, unless it's actually the ante-penultimate week of the chart year! In other words either the 2nd or 3rd last week of the chart year, depending on whether Billboard makes 2020 a 52 or 53-week year.

But you know that, so here's where I think things stand for the chart week of Nov 7, 2020:

So Luke Combs sneaks into the year-end list this week, only to be likely pushed out again in the last week. Three songs could still join the top 100: Tap In, Said Sum and Lemonade.

And here's a projection for the top 110 assuming next week is the last week of the year:

I feel like More Than My Hometown has a better chance of making it than Tap In. Mostly because More Than My Hometown already appears to be ahead in points and is gaining better position on the Hot 100 than Tap In right now.

@bamatom48 : It's bad form to reprint large posts just to add a line. You don't have to reprint the whole chart when quoting. Go to the BBCode tab and take out the images. (The lines with the <img> tags.)

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2020 21:29:32 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Nov 5, 2020 13:33:04 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

I feel like More Than My Hometown has a better chance of making it than Tap In. Mostly because More Than My Hometown already appears to be ahead in points and is gaining better position on the Hot 100 than Tap In right now.

@bamatom48 : It's bad form to reprint large posts just to add a line. You don't have to reprint the whole chart when quoting. Go to the BBCode tab and take out the images. (The lines with the <img> tags.)

Sorry about that, I'm still not that familiar with the functions on here. I'll make sure to do that in the future. Thanks for the tip.

[spoons]

Nov 3, 2020 12:39:08 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Hot 100 Artist Year End - Week 51/52 (98.1%)

LW TW Artist Points
1 1 Roddy Ricch 2,115,900
2 2 The Weeknd 2,035,466
3 3 DaBaby 1,751,324
4 4 Lil Baby 1,566,158
5 5 Drake 1,462,625
6 6 Dua Lipa 1,452,092
7 7 Harry Styles 1,383,545
8 8 Post Malone 1,366,114
9 9 Juice WRLD 1,298,691
10 10 Lewis Capaldi 1,188,262

11 11 Justin Bieber 1,184,761
13 12 Pop Smoke 983,519
12 13 Billie Eilish 971,702
14 14 Megan Thee Stallion 848,766
15 15 Maroon 5 817,313
16 16 Lil Uzi Vert 767,150
17 17 Morgan Wallen 728,929
18 18 Doja Cat 707,729
19 19 Future 693,466
20 20 Maren Morris 681,598

21 21 Lizzo 667,017
22 22 Taylor Swift 643,386
23 23 Tones & I 614,329
24 24 Arizona Zervas 608,343
26 25 Chris Brown 563,156
25 26 Jonas Brothers 562,662
27 27 Rod Wave 561,160
29 28 SAINt JHN 554,863
28 29 YoungBoy Never Broke Again 550,768
30 30 Selena Gomez 538,082

31 31 Trevor Daniel 529,363
33 32 Kane Brown 515,374
32 33 blackbear 511,496
34 34 Lil Mosey 489,984
36 35 Young Thug 467,475
35 36 Camila Cabello 466,864
37 37 Gabby Barrett 463,262
43 38 Luke Combs 455,811
39 39 Jack Harlow 449,840
38 40 Halsey 442,262

40 41 BTS 437,846
41 42 Bad Bunny 400,829
42 43 Sam Hunt 389,505
44 44 Travis Scott 381,161
45 45 Gunna 381,025
47 46 Dan + Shay 370,055
46 47 Nicki Minaj 364,210
48 48 Mustard 354,402
49 49 Luke Bryan 345,952
50 50 Jason Aldean 338,012

51 51 Lil Nas X 316,830
52 52 Lady Gaga 295,674
53 53 Eminem 289,368
61 54 Ariana Grande 285,456
54 55 Jhene Aiko 283,919
55 56 Polo G 282,865
56 57 Don Toliver 277,122
57 58 SHAED 262,617
60 59 Cardi B 260,857
58 60 Ed Sheeran 258,163

59 61 NLE Choppa 254,609
62 62 Surfaces 239,738
63 63 Old Dominion 234,396
64 64 Maddie & Tae 228,379
66 65 Blake Shelton 228,103
70 66 Moneybagg Yo 224,080
65 67 Powfu 222,088
67 68 StaySolidRocky 221,578
69 69 Marshmello 218,075
68 70 Mariah Carey 215,136

74 71 Shawn Mendes 208,039
75 72 Lee Brice 205,428
71 73 Beyonce 201,310
72 74 Keith Urban 199,005
76 75 Charlie Puth 198,541
73 76 Thomas Rhett 198,355
80 77 Jason Derulo 190,651
81 78 Jawsh 685 190,651
77 79 Miranda Lambert 189,812
86 80 24kGoldn 188,789

78 81 Quavo 187,630
82 82 Jon Pardi 186,743
79 83 Khalid 184,483
83 84 JP Saxe 175,677
92 85 Saweetie 172,824
91 86 Lil Durk 172,166
84 87 6ix9ine 170,930
85 88 YNW Melly 169,427
87 89 Ingrid Andress 169,077
88 90 Demi Lovato 169,044

89 91 Black Eyed Peas 168,975
93 92 Sam Smith 167,118
90 93 42 Dugg 166,308
94 94 DJ Khaled 165,665
95 95 H.E.R. 161,227
97 96 Tory Lanez 151,844
96 97 Brenda Lee 151,172
98 98 Dustin Lynch 149,459
99 99 Florida Georgia Line 149,422
100 100 Summer Walker 147,954

101 101 JACKBOYS 147,439
106 102 Kenny Chesney 142,228
109 103 AJR 141,937
102 104 Mac Miller 140,632
103 105 BENEE 140,493
104 106 Jordan Davis 137,930
105 107 Travis Denning 137,764
107 108 Lil Tecca 136,373
110 109 J Balvin 131,998
108 110 Brett Young 130,606

111 111 Carly Pearce 123,528
112 112 Burl Ives 123,221
113 113 Jake Owen 121,346
114 114 Russ 121,315
115 115 A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie 119,150
116 116 Bobby Helms 117,281
120 117 surf mesa 115,318
117 118 Andy Williams 113,856
118 119 Gwen Stefani 113,847
121 120 Miley Cyrus 113,646

124 121 Lady A 109,904
119 122 Kid Cudi 106,744
122 123 Chris Janson 105,982
132 124 Ava Max 105,801
123 125 Gene Autry 105,332
125 126 Lil Wayne 104,362
131 127 Parker McCollum 103,510
126 128 Trippie Redd 102,559
127 129 Tyga 100,664
133 130 Machine Gun Kelly 99,548

136 131 HARDY 98,400
139 132 Matt Stell 96,935
140 133 Jameson Rodgers 96,479
128 134 Justin Moore 95,991
129 135 beabadoobee 95,181
130 136 twenty one pilots 94,846
137 137 Kelsea Ballerini 94,119
134 138 Wham! 92,435
135 139 Wale 92,422
142 140 21 Savage 90,568

138 141 PARTYNEXTDOOR 89,007
147 142 Conan Gray 86,723
141 143 Riley Green 85,762
143 144 Scotty McCreery 83,005
144 145 Ozuna 82,108
148 146 NAV 80,959
145 147 Niall Horan 80,866
146 148 Jimmie Allen 80,856
158 149 iann dior 78,392
149 150 Ashley McBryde 76,802

come to think of it those two babies were on everything

Dababy:
ROCKSTAR
WHATS POPPIN remix
BOP
My Oh My
For The Night
And now Levitating and PRACTICE

Lil Baby:
Woah
For the Night
We Paid
Sum 2 Prove
Emotionally Scarred
The Bigger Picture
And now 24 remix
Also, its a crime that Yi Jian Mei is not making the 2020 year end, Billboard snuffing asain artists yet again >:(

[waluigionascooter]

I think this YE list is gonna have the most songs by dead people in a long time:

For The Night
Come And Go
The Woo
Godzilla
Mood Swings
Bandit
Dior
Suicidal
Wishing Well

(idk if dior counts since it was released when he was alive)

[sirskimask]

Nov 4, 2020 0:05:02 GMT -5 walt91 said:

Nov 3, 2020 17:43:48 GMT -5 M5 said:

Heartless didn't debut at number one

this is some mandela effect s**t I could've sworn it was a number one debut lmao

It didn't debut #1 because it dropped midweek, otherwise it would've

[inverse]

Alright people it's that time of year once again where we have the conversation about not quoting 100-200 song lists lol

Better is to either just use a ^ to indicate you're reacting to the post directly above or to just take the specific part that you're actually referencing, for example

Nov 3, 2020 12:39:08 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Hot 100 Artist Year End - Week 51/52 (98.1%)

LW TW Artist Points

16 16 Lil Uzi Vert 767,150
22 22 Taylor Swift 643,386

Crazy how high these artists are gonna be without hitting the year end list once, I've never seen anyone above 30 before without hitting the year end list

[inverse]

actually just as a curiosity I went back to find the highest artist from each year on the artists chart who missed the year end list and Uzi this year is definitely going to be the record. Here's the data for anyone who's curious

Year	Artist	Position	Biggest Hit	Peak	Weeks
2006	Kenny Chesney	43	Summertime	34	20
2007	Rascal Flatts	35	Stand	46	20
2008	Carrie Underwood	27	All-American Girl	27	20
2009	Keith Urban	34	Kiss A Girl	16	20
2010	Glee Cast	23	Poker Face	20	4
2011	Glee Cast	21	Forget You	11	5
2012	Blake Shelton	54	Drink On It	39	19
2013	Chris Brown	32	Love More	23	17
2014	Demi Lovato	42	Neon Lights	36	20
2015	Future	33	Where Ya At	28	17
2016	Luke Bryan	42	Huntin', Fishin' & Lovin' Every Day	37	20
2017	J. Cole	46	Deja Vu	7	20
2018	Eminem	25	River	11	13
2019	Jason Aldean	59	Rearview Town	40	18

one thing to note is that Kanye West places at #38 in 2016 and I'm not sure if Billboard is counting Pop Style in that, if not he's the highest for that year

[After Minutes]

Honestly seeing just how much Abel is doing to become a pop culture juggernaut I am kind of expecting him to appear on Drake's next album. And if that happens, I can easily see that becoming the YE #1 song for 2021, and then Abel could be up to releasing his own next album around the beginning of 2022. I know its way too early to make this prediction, but I could somewhat see him pulling off 3 #1 YE hits in a row.

[GP]

will DSN be #3 or #4 I'm lost.

[xtynaaguilera99]

Nov 6, 2020 8:35:31 GMT -5 GP said:

will DSN be #3 or #4 I'm lost.

It will be #4. Blinding Lights, Circles and The Box occupy the Top 3.