2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[Groovy]

I think I said this before but I'm gonna say this again, it'll never sit right in my mind that the remix for WHATS POPPIN outperformed the original. I don't dislike it it's just that I find the original a lot better and the remix is forgettable.

[xtynaaguilera99]

Nov 13, 2020 10:05:59 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I think I said this before but I'm gonna say this again, it'll never sit right in my mind that the remix for WHATS POPPIN outperformed the original. I don't dislike it it's just that I find the original a lot better and the remix is forgettable.

Also, it gave a hit to that trashcan called Tory Lanez.

[waluigionascooter]

Nov 13, 2020 10:05:59 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I think I said this before but I'm gonna say this again, it'll never sit right in my mind that the remix for WHATS POPPIN outperformed the original. I don't dislike it it's just that I find the original a lot better and the remix is forgettable.

Jack Harlow's verse is honestly a huge step down from the original

Also the tone in his verse changes from "I'm getting big right now, but I've been putting a lot of work and I'm about to become way bigger" to "Ok I'm huge now, cool"

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 13, 2020 12:54:29 GMT -5 waluigionascooter said:

Nov 13, 2020 10:05:59 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I think I said this before but I'm gonna say this again, it'll never sit right in my mind that the remix for WHATS POPPIN outperformed the original. I don't dislike it it's just that I find the original a lot better and the remix is forgettable.

Jack Harlow's verse is honestly a huge step down from the original

Also the tone in his verse changes from "I'm getting big right now, but I've been putting a lot of work and I'm about to become way bigger" to "Ok I'm huge now, cool"

That and it goes on too long.

The original might be just be a freestyle but the verses and flow is so catchy that is hardly matters, it's one of the few rap songs I've memorized all year because of how tight it is. With the remix, the verses aren't as catchy as the original and the beat was not designed to go on for four minutes for four rappers, all with different flows. It gets old by the time we get to Wayne, who has the worst verse so it doesnt end well either.

[xtynaaguilera99]

I agree with y’all. WHAT’S POPPIN remix and the Say So remix are the worst remixes released in 2020.

The best remix, to me, is the Savage one with Beyoncé (miles better than the original).

[plankton5165]

One safe double year-end hit (1):
Mood

Probable double year-end hits (4):
Laugh Now Cry Later
Blinding Lights
I Hope
Savage Love

Possible double year-end hits (10):
WAP
Lemonade
For The Night
Rockstar
Go Crazy
Kings & Queens
Said Sum
More Than My Hometown
Ily
Bang!

Probably not double year-end hits (9):
Positions
Before You Go
Dynamite
Watermelon Sugar
Be Like That
Whats Poppin
One Beer
Pretty Heart
Circles (would be a triple year-end hit)

[inverse]

All I Want For Christmas Is You is also a contender

[spoons]

I hate Tory now but before I have to admit, Tory ripped his WHATS POPPIN verse.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

If the year-end was truly representative, I think this would be my Top 20.

1. Blinding Lights
2. The Box
3. Don’t Start Now
4. ROCKSTAR
5. WAP
6. Mood
7. Dynamite
8. WHATS POPPIN
9. Watermelon Sugar
10. Say So
11. Savage Love
12. Roses
13. For the Night
14. Life is Good
15. I Hope
16. Savage
17. Adore You
18. everything i wanted
19. Lemonade
20. positions

[Deleted]

Nov 14, 2020 4:04:48 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

If the year-end was truly representative, I think this would be my Top 10.

1. Blinding Lights
2. The Box
3. Don’t Start Now
4. ROCKSTAR
5. WAP
6. Mood
7. Dynamite
8. WHATS POPPIN
9. Watermelon Sugar
10. Say So
11. Savage Love
12. Roses
13. For the Night
14. Life is Good
15. I Hope
16. Savage
17. Adore You
18. everything i wanted
19. Lemonade
20. positions

this is a top 20 list

[Groovy]

Nov 14, 2020 0:03:36 GMT -5 spoons said:

I hate Tory now but before I have to admit, Tory ripped his WHATS POPPIN verse.

He 100 percent did  

[plankton5165]

The final week could be dated the 21st.

And I realize it probably will be because it's the third week of the month.

[mikerivera]

Just created a new thread for the 2021 YE projections. Feel free to post the 53 week predictions in this thread, but it seems like it’ll be a lot easier to reference things if we separate the 2020 and 2021 threads

pulsemusic.proboards.com/post/7692870/thread

[xtynaaguilera99]

I wanted to continue with the January-December projections until the end of the year. Do you mind if I publish them here? Or is it better to post them in the 2021 one, too?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Given that most of the weeks included would be those included in the 2020 Year-End, here.

[mikerivera]

I mean, you can do that in whichever one you’d prefer, but for what it’s worth, after Billboard publishes the year end, I’m gonna need to correct the numbers so that it matches with the official list. So how much different the end product will look like depends on how accurate these projections turn out to be. My personal opinion is that it would be better to continue posting those in this thread, and then we can probably wait to start the J-D scenario until the first week of January

[kingvavis]

Where would Blinding Lights be on the 2019 Year End Hot 100 if it's projected 2020 points were counted?

[mikerivera]

#3, just barely behind Sunflower. And when I say barely, I mean less than 20k points

[Groovy]

What is the weakest year-end chart topper in terms of points?

[kingvavis]

Nov 15, 2020 14:02:52 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

#3, just barely behind Sunflower. And when I say barely, I mean less than 20k points

But wouldn't the predicted points from last year's year end chart be elevated now that we know the actual formula for the billboard charts when 6**9*** leaked it?

[xtynaaguilera99]

Nov 15, 2020 14:20:16 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What is the weakest year-end chart topper in terms of points?

If I’m not wrong, Love Yourself by Justin Bieber (since the counting started here).

[mikerivera]

Nov 15, 2020 14:20:59 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Nov 15, 2020 14:02:52 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

#3, just barely behind Sunflower. And when I say barely, I mean less than 20k points

But wouldn't the predicted points from last year's year end chart be elevated now that we know the actual formula for the billboard charts when 6**9*** leaked it?

The formula was changed again last December

[inverse]

Nov 15, 2020 14:20:16 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What is the weakest year-end chart topper in terms of points?

probably an old song like Wooly Bully.

[waluigionascooter]

Nov 15, 2020 14:20:16 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What is the weakest year-end chart topper in terms of points?

Bad Day by Daniel Powter is up there.
It was only the 56th biggest song of the 2000s, and only spent 14 weeks in the Top 10 and barely 30 on the charts in total.

[joshtheking]

Nov 15, 2020 23:15:33 GMT -5 waluigionascooter said:

Nov 15, 2020 14:20:16 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What is the weakest year-end chart topper in terms of points?

Bad Day by Daniel Powter is up there.
It was only the 56th biggest song of the 2000s, and only spent 14 weeks in the Top 10 and barely 30 on the charts in total.

I've always thought that song didn't feel like the biggest song of the year. Everything else in the top 10 of 2006 seemed bigger than Bad Day

[Groovy]

Nov 16, 2020 11:54:31 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

Nov 15, 2020 23:15:33 GMT -5 waluigionascooter said:

Bad Day by Daniel Powter is up there.
It was only the 56th biggest song of the 2000s, and only spent 14 weeks in the Top 10 and barely 30 on the charts in total.

I've always thought that song didn't feel like the biggest song of the year. Everything else in the top 10 of 2006 seemed bigger than Bad Day

If I wasn't a chart watcher I would have never known that topped the charts, I hardly ever heard when it was on the radio like I heard Temperature and Promiscuous way more in 2006 than I heard Bad Day. Same thing for 2007, I knew Irreplaceable was a hit but I didn't expect to top the year end for 2007, it was way more a 2006 hit than 2007 and I don't remember Big Girls Don't Cry being Fergie's biggest hit. 

[waluigionascooter]

Nov 16, 2020 12:35:21 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Nov 16, 2020 11:54:31 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I've always thought that song didn't feel like the biggest song of the year. Everything else in the top 10 of 2006 seemed bigger than Bad Day

If I wasn't a chart watcher I would have never known that topped the charts, I hardly ever heard when it was on the radio like I heard Temperature and Promiscuous way more in 2006 than I heard Bad Day. Same thing for 2007, I knew Irreplaceable was a hit but I didn't expect to top the year end for 2007, it was way more a 2006 hit than 2007 and I don't remember Big Girls Don't Cry being Fergie's biggest hit. 

I mean to be fair Bad Day was the first pop song I ever remembered hearing as a kid when I was like 4 or 5, so I guess that counts for something (that and Girlfriend by Avril Lavigne)

[n13l5]

Oof im sorry to hear that Girlfriend was one of your first experiences with pop music

[Deleted]

Here are my official 2020 year end predictions assuming a 53 week year. I might post the other unlikely scenarios in the future if I feel like it.

Locked This Week: More Than My Hometown, Said Sum, Lemonade, & Lovin' On You

Dropouts:

Break My Heart 4148 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #29.)

1 Blinding Lights 12620 (+190)
2 Circles 11366 -
3 The Box 10737 -
4 Don't Start Now 9231 -
5 ROCKSTAR 8411 (+153)
6 Adore You 7924 (+94)
7 Life Is Good 7688 -
8 I Hope 6841 (+210)
9 Say So 6575 -
10 The Bones 6521 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 10 CUTOFF - - - - -

11 Memories 6514 -
12 WHATS POPPIN 6413 (+125)
13 Someone You Loved 6108 -
14 Savage 5919 -
15 Intentions 5562 -
16 Roses 5559 (+88)
17 Dance Monkey 5530 -
18 Watermelon Sugar 5476 (+141)
19 Roxanne 5344 -
20 Before You Go 5246 (+147)

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 20 CUTOFF - - - - -

21 Everything I Wanted 5227 -
22 WAP 5206 (+162)
23 Falling 4919 -
24 Blueberry Faygo 4640 -
25 10,000 Hours 4571 -
26 Hot Girl Bummer 4465 -
27 Ballin' 4348 -
28 Savage Love 4189 (+175)
29 Break My Heart 4148 -
30 Toosie Slide 4061 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 30 CUTOFF - - - - -

31 Dynamite 3990 (+144)
32 Chasin' You 3898 -
33 Go Crazy 3896 (+156)

34 Heartless 3835 -

35 BOP 3853 -
36 Lose You To Love Me 3798 -
37 Good As Hell 3780 -
38 Laugh Now Cry Later 3680 (+205)
39 My Oh My 3653 -
40 No Guidance 3611 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 40 CUTOFF - - - - -

41 High Fashion 3515 -
42 Mood 3261 (+345)
43 Death Bed 3092 -
44 For The Night 3061 (+165)
45 Woah 2998 -
46 Rain On Me 2969 -
47 Senorita 2846 -
48 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2763 -
49 Come And Go 2718 (+103)
50 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 2702 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 50 CUTOFF - - - - -

51 Heart On Ice 2700 -
52 Nobody But You 2685 -
53 Bad Guy 2657 -
54 Got What I Got 2578 (+109)
55 If The World Was Ending 2567 -
56 We Paid 2492 -
57 Trampoline 2434 -
58 One Of Them Girls 2421 (+117)
59 POPSTAR 2368 (+71)
60 Die From A Broken Heart 2363 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 60 CUTOFF - - - - -

61 Sunday Best 2299 -
62 Godzilla 2296 -
63 Truth Hurts 2291 -
64 The Woo 2269 (+98)
65 One Margarita 2248 -
66 Party Girl 2234 -
67 One Man Band 2229 -
68 Emotionally Scarred 2228 -
69 Yummy 2193 -
70 The Bigger Picture 2184 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 70 CUTOFF - - - - -

71 Mood Swings 2170 (+78)
72 I Hope You're Happy Now 2139 -
73 Be Like That 2125 (+135)
74 Hard To Forget 2116 -
75 Stuck With U 2108 -
76 Suicidal 2101 -
77 Rags2Riches 2090 (+96)
78 Sum 2 Prove 2071 -
79 ily 2042 (+129)
80 Bandit 2038 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 80 CUTOFF - - - - -

81 Dior 2021 -
82 Supalonely 2001 -
83 Wishing Well 1982 (+65)
84 Only Human 1974 -
85 Hot 1968 -
86 More Than My Hometown 1964 (+138)
87 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1958 -
88 THE SCOTTS 1956 -
89 You Should Be Sad 1953 -
90 Homesick 1941 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 90 CUTOFF - - - - -

91 Panini 1937 -

92 Said Sum 1937 (+131)
93 Juicy 1926 -
94 P*$$y Fairy (OTW) 1925 -
95 Lemonade 1924 (+189)
96 Lovin' On You 1879 (+79)
97 Bluebird 1870 -
98 Does To Me 1863 -

- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (1850 Points) - - - - -

99 Even Though I'm Leaving 1824 -
100 Slide 1789 -

- - - - - PROJECTED TOP 100 CUTOFF - - - - -

101 Walk Em Down 1753 -
102 One Beer 1745 (+110)
103 Tusa 1734 -
104 Tap In 1734 (+57)
105 Bang! 1728 (+127)
106 Kinfolks 1715 -
107 OUT WEST 1714 -
108 BEST ON EARTH 1690 -
109 Be A Light 1661 -
110 Cool Again 1659 -
111 More Hearts Than Mine 1633 -
112 Cardigan 1623 -
113 I Don't Care 1612 -
114 I Love My Country 1605 -
115 Holy 1573 (+180)
116 Beer Can't Fix 1547 -
117 Girls In The Hood 1525 -
118 Ridin' Roads 1509 -

- - - - - DROPOUT CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

[n13l5]

So either this or previous week is the last week thats counted for 2020?