2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[spicymapping]

Dec 3, 2020 9:20:41 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Dec 3, 2020 9:14:21 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

i'm tracking what songs will be caught between years weekly

We can probably expect Holy, Lemonade, Positions, and Kings & Queens to make next years unless they have a downfall. BANG and What You Know Bout Love are kind of toss ups. One Beer, Tap In, and Midnight Sky are gonna get screwed over for sure.

K&Q lost so many points to 2020 that i don't know if it can actually pull it off. Midnight Sky will also sadly not even reach the caught between years threshold, probably only having 1 or 2 weeks left in it

[Groovy]

Dec 3, 2020 9:14:21 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

i'm tracking what songs will be caught between years weekly

Lets hope most of the ones on the cutoff actually make it. 

[Sambalada]

Updated list of every songs that make the Hot 100 Year-End chart:
docs.google.com/document/d/1SSYa1y33HFYbrdS_Pukv50YzfYjAzmqOUrbB2pyJivM/edit?usp=drivesdk

[korbel16]

Oh wow Beyoncé’s really not credited

[tanooki]

heres how i did

BB	Me	(+/-)	ARTIST - SONG
1	1	=	The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
2	2	=	Post Malone - Circles
3	3	=	Roddy Ricch - The Box
4	4	=	Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now
5	5	=	DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR
6	6	=	Harry Styles - Adore You
7	7	=	Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good
8	8	=	Maroon 5 - Memories
9	11	+2	Maren Morris - The Bones
10	9	-1	Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
11	12	+1	Doja Cat - Say So
12	10	-2	Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope
13	13	=	Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez, Lil Wayne - WHATS POPPIN
14	14	=	Tones & I - Dance Monkey
15	15	=	Megan Thee Stallion - Savage
16	16	=	Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE
17	17	=	Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions
18	18	=	Billie Eilish - everything I wanted
19	19	=	SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix)
20	20	=	Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar
21	21	=	Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go
22	22	=	Trevor Daniel - Falling
23	23	=	Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours
24	24	=	Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - WAP
25	26	+1	Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin'
26	25	-1	blackbear - hot girl bummer
27	27	=	Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo
28	28	=	The Weeknd - Heartless
29	30	+1	DaBaby - BOP
30	31	+1	Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me
31	32	+1	Lizzo - Good As Hell
32	33	+1	Drake - Toosie Slide
33	29	-4	Dua Lipa - Break My Heart
34	35	+1	Morgan Wallen - Chasin You
35	34	-1	Jawsh 685, Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat)
36	36	=	Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance
37	38	+1	Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My
38	37	-1	BTS - Dynamite
39	40	+1	Chris Brown, Young Thug - Go Crazy
40	39	-1	Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion
41	41	=	Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later
42	42	=	Lil Baby - Woah
43	43	=	Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed
44	44	=	Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita
45	45	=	Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM
46	50	+4	Billie Eilish - bad guy
47	47	=	24kGoldn ft. iann dior - Mood
48	46	-2	Lady Gaga, Ariana Grande - Rain On Me
49	49	=	Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby, DaBaby - For the Night
50	48	-2	The Black Eyed Peas, J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life)
51	52	+1	Rod Wave - Heart on Ice
52	51	-1	Blake Shelton, Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You
53	54	+1	SHAED - Trampoline
54	53	-1	Juice WRLD, Marshmello - Come & Go
55	56	+1	Lizzo - Truth Hurts
56	55	-1	JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels - If the World Was Ending
57	57	=	Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - We Paid
58	61	+3	Justin Bieber - Yummy
59	62	+3	Old Dominion - One Man Band
60	60	=	Jason Aldean - Got What I Got
61	58	-3	Surfaces - Sunday Best
62	59	-3	Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla
63	66	+3	Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit
64	65	+1	StaySolidRocky - Party Girl
65	63	-2	Maddie & Tae - Die From a Broken Heart
66	64	-2	DJ Khaled, Drake - Popstar
67	73	+6	Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
68	70	+2	Lee Brice - One of Them Girls
69	72	+3	Sam Hunt - Hard to Forget
70	68	-2	Luke Bryan - One Margarita
71	74	+3	Lil Nas X - Panini
72	78	+6	Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot
73	75	+2	Carly Pearce, Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now
74	71	-3	Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred
75	69	-6	YNW Melly, Juice WRLD - Suicidal
76	79	+3	Lil Baby - The Bigger Picture
77	77	=	Jonas Brothers - Only Human
78	76	-2	Pop Smoke ft. 50 Cent, Roddy Ricch - The Woo
79	67	-12	Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove
80	83	+3	Ariana Grande, Justin Bieber - stuck with u
81	81	=	Pop Smoke ft. Lil Tjay - Mood Swings
82	80	-2	Halsey - You should be sad
83	82	-1	Pop Smoke - Dior
84	84	=	BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely
85	92	+7	Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving
86	86	=	THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott, Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS
87	89	+2	Doja Cat, Tyga - Juicy
88	87	-1	Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee, Khalid - Be Like That
89	85	-4	Kane Brown - Homesick
90	88	-2	Rod Wave ft. ATR Son Son - Rags2Riches
91	95	+4	Miranda Lambert - Bluebird
92	91	-1	Juice WRLD - Wishing Well
93	90	-3	Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does to Me
94	93	-1	Jhene Aiko - P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW)
95	96	+1	surf mesa ft. Emilee - ily
96	98	+2	Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown
97	99	+2	Luke Combs - Lovin On You
98	103	+5	Moneybagg Yo - Said Sum
99	94	-5	H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide
100	97	-3	NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down
N/A	100	N/A	Karol G, Nicki Minaj - Tusa

[gikem]

Dec 3, 2020 8:46:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

TUSA DOESN'T MAKE IT ENDING NICKI'S YEAR-END LIST STREAK

Mostly, I just find it funny that Nicki got two #1 hits this year but doesn't appear on the 2020 Year-End at all.

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2020 8:46:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

TUSA DOESN'T MAKE IT ENDING NICKI'S YEAR-END LIST STREAK

Sadly, 2020 also officially marks the end of Taylor Swift's streak of year end list appearances.

First time since Teardrops On My Guitar started the run in 2007 that she does not make an appearance.

I know this was expected, although in the back of my mind I was hoping Cardigan might make a surprise appearance at the end of this list, especially since it was a fantastic song.

[lyhom]

Dec 3, 2020 9:20:05 GMT -5 lyhom said:

fuck of course the year end comes out when I'm asleep and can't open the 2020 rankdown lol

speaking of which...

[kingvavis]

The Current Year-End Streaks circa. 2020


Drake 2009-2020 (12)

Ariana Grande 2013-2020 (8)

Shawn Mendes 2015-2020 (6)

Justin Bieber 2015-2020 (6)

Selena Gomez 2015-2020 (6)

Post Malone 2016-2020 (5)

Travis Scott 2016-2020 (5)

Halsey 2016-2020 (5)

Camilla Cabello 2016-2020 (5)

Young Thug 2016-2020 (5)

J Balvin 2017-2020 (4)

Kane Brown 2017-2020 (4)

Maroon 5 2017-2020 (4)

Cardi B 2017-2020 (4)

Luke Combs 2017-2020 (4)

Khalid 2017-2020 (4)

Marshmello 2018-2020 (3)

Juice WRLD 2018-2020 (3)

Lil Baby 2018-2020 (3)

Chris Brown 2018-2020 (3)

Dan + Shay 2018-2020 (3)

[Deleted]

Dan + Shay also has 3 appearances in a row now

Tequila (2018)

Speechless, All To Myself, Tequila (2019)

10,000 Hours (2020)


Edit: Dua Lipa is also on a 3 year run as well, I don't know how I didn't think of her first

[kingvavis]

Dec 3, 2020 10:51:22 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Dan + Shay also has 3 appearances in a row now

Tequila (2018)

Speechless, All To Myself, Tequila (2019)

10,000 Hours (2020)


Edit: Dua Lipa is also on a 3 year run as well, I don't know how I didn't think of her first

Thank you, I forgot about Dan + Shay. Dua Lipa I know is not on a streak since she did not make last year's year end list.

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2020 11:12:49 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Dec 3, 2020 10:51:22 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Dan + Shay also has 3 appearances in a row now

Tequila (2018)

Speechless, All To Myself, Tequila (2019)

10,000 Hours (2020)


Edit: Dua Lipa is also on a 3 year run as well, I don't know how I didn't think of her first

Thank you, I forgot about Dan + Shay. Dua Lipa I know is not on a streak since she did not make last year's year end list.

Okay, how in the world did I forget that Dua Lipa didn't make the list last year? I think I just assumed that she did since she's been such a big name since New Rules broke through in late 2017.

[Groovy]

Is The Bones the highest peaking to not spend a week in the top 10?

[joshtheking]

    So Charlie Puth got credited for I Hope?... and Beyonce didn't get credited for Savage?

[xtynaaguilera99]

It’s unfair that Beyoncé didn’t get a credit for Savage, especially when the remix did much better than the original.

[anthony11554]

What are the songs that just missed? is that data that they release

[mikerivera]

I think it’s fair to assume the songs that just missed were
-Tusa
-Best on Earth
-Kinfolks
-Lemonade
-Out West
-More Hearts Than Mine

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 3, 2020 11:47:21 GMT -5 anthony11554 said:

What are the songs that just missed? is that data that they release

They don't reveal which songs were on the cusp but these are the 15 that had the best chance

BEST ON EARTH by Russ feat. BIA
Kinfolks by Sam Hunt
Said Sum by Moneybagg Yo
Lemonade by Internet Money and Gunna feat. NAV and Don Toliver
OUT WEST by JACKBOYS feat. Young Thug
More Hearts than Mine by Ingrid Andress
I Don’t Care by Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber
Tap In by Saweetie
cardigan by Taylor Swift
Cool Again by Kane Brown
Beer Can’t Fix by Thomas Rhett feat. Jon Pardi
Bang! by AJR
Be a Light by Thomas Rhett feat. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin, and Keith Urban
Rockin Around the Christmas Tree by Brenda Lee
One Beer by HARDY feat. Devin Dawson and Lauren Alaina

[mikerivera]

Honestly, I’m just happy Even Though I’m Leaving made it, since it seemed like a toss up. I still consider it more of a 2019 song, but hey, at least it’ll get the recognition it deserves.

[gikem]

Dec 3, 2020 11:58:07 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Honestly, I’m just happy Even Though I’m Leaving made it, since it seemed like a toss up. I still consider it more of a 2019 song, but hey, at least it’ll get the recognition it deserves.

Curious, how close was ETIL to making the 2019 January-to-December YE? It had a #11 peak and charted for 16 weeks in 2019, so it had to have been close.

[kcdawg13]

Wow this is a fantastic list, so happy with Maren placing in the Top 10. Also Circles getting that #2 slot feels great, overall a pretty good year for music.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Bang! didn't make it but Said Sum did. You lose some, win some ...

[tuna]

Dec 3, 2020 11:20:09 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Is The Bones the highest peaking to not spend a week in the top 10?

"Why Me" by Kris Kristofferson landed at #6 on the 1973 year end Hot 100, with a #16 peak

[Harx]

Is it weird that i'm bummed Bang didn't make it? Just think of the drama this would cause among critics

[anthony11554]

Dec 3, 2020 12:44:08 GMT -5 Harx said:

Is it weird that i'm bummed Bang didn't make it? Just think of the drama this would cause among critics

Would've loved a debate about what's more trash Bang or Yummy

[tuna]

Bang will probably make 2021, and Mark from Spectrum Pulse will probably pop a blood vessel when it happens

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 3, 2020 12:44:08 GMT -5 Harx said:

Is it weird that i'm bummed Bang didn't make it? Just think of the drama this would cause among critics

I think I've said before that it says something about the quality of this year that even if Bang did make it, it would've have even made my Top 5 worst hits. I think the really curious piece should be if TROLLZ made it, would it Top everyone's list (I think the answer is yes)

[inverse]

This compares pretty damn well to other years considering how broken this chart year was. Stuff like AIWFCIY doesn't help either.:

Daniel Collins (2014)
Correct Spot: 40
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 96/100
Total Spots Off: 166
Worst Miss: Drink A Beer - 19? (Predicted to be 84 and then missed, impossible to know for sure where it would rank in a top 110 but considering that the songs he MISSED that made it were all predicted 101 to 105 then averaging its estimated finish at 103 seems kinda fair? This is a confusing one)

broccoli (2015)
Correct Spot: 19
Top 10: 9/10
Top 100: 98/100
Total Spots Off: 298
Worst Miss: Habits (Stay High) - 12 (Predicted at 65, finished at 77)

georgetherunner314 (2016)
Correct Spot: 48
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 99/100
Total Spots Off: 79
Worst Miss: Let Me Love You (Predicted at 42, finished at 47. This was because songs 42-46 were all within 4000 points of each other), Starving (Predicted at 89, finished at 94). Both were off by just 5

Snoopdawg (2017)
Correct Spot: 20
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 98/100
Total Spots Off: 261
Worst Miss: Treat You Better - 16 (Predicted at 76, finished at 92, for some weird reason)
Bonus points for being the only person to get #100 right

fhas (2018)
Correct Spot: 48
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 97/100
Total Spots Off: 143
Worst Miss: Say Something - 9 (Predicted at 94, finished at 85.)

lights (2019)
Correct Spot: 42
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 99/100
Total Spots Off: 120
Worst Miss: Swervin - 6 (Predicted at 88, finished at 82)

Bonus points for breaking the 99 curse!

tanooki (2020)

Correct Spot: 36

Top 10: 9/10

Top 100: 99/10

Total Spotf Off: 153

Worst Miss: Sum 2 Prove - 12 (Predicted at 67, finished at 79)

[inverse]

Dec 3, 2020 12:39:43 GMT -5 tuna said:

Dec 3, 2020 11:20:09 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Is The Bones the highest peaking to not spend a week in the top 10?

"Why Me" by Kris Kristofferson landed at #6 on the 1973 year end Hot 100, with a #16 peak

I Fall To Pieces by Patsy Cline - #2 in 1961 ( i think it was 1961)

not a record likely to be broken

[anthony11554]

This year is very top heavy imo