2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[inverse]

Nov 10, 2020 21:05:53 GMT -5 inverse said:

tanooki One small error on the Hot 100 Artists chart is that Andy Williams should also be credited for Happy Holidays/The Holiday Song and be at 162,651. Hopefully that'll push that trashcan Tory Lanez out but if not I'll take FGL as compensation

In the best timeline this actually came true. Fuck you Tory! Let this be a lesson that the Andy Williams army does not put up with midgets who shoot people

[Harx]

What's staggering though is the amount of songs by deceased artists that made it this year, mainly due to Juice and Pop Smoke. Feels disturbingly appropriate for 2020

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 3, 2020 12:57:06 GMT -5 Harx said:

What's staggering though is the amount of songs by deceased artists that made it this year, mainly due to Juice and Pop Smoke. Feels disturbingly appropriate for 2020

A shame Good News couldnt be a hit this year though.

[Groovy]

The only songs I don't like in the top 10 are Memories and Someone You Loved.

[mikerivera]

Dec 3, 2020 12:02:16 GMT -5 gikem said:

Dec 3, 2020 11:58:07 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Honestly, I’m just happy Even Though I’m Leaving made it, since it seemed like a toss up. I still consider it more of a 2019 song, but hey, at least it’ll get the recognition it deserves.

Curious, how close was ETIL to making the 2019 January-to-December YE? It had a #11 peak and charted for 16 weeks in 2019, so it had to have been close.

It was #108 with 171k points

[Groovy]

On the Canadian chart, Dance Monkey topped the chart and Midnight Sky, Lover, Ride It and In Your Eyes made the year end.

[mikerivera]

^so did Be Kind, Sugar and Stupid Love. I’m not saying the Canadians have perfect taste (If The World Was Ending in the top 20, Lalala getting making a second YE, and making Mamacita a hit), but overall, they really do have better tastes up north

[liam1396]

My revised worst list:
10)Stuck With U by Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande
9)Hot Girl Bummer by Blackbear
8)I Hope(remix) by Gabby Barett and Charlie Puth
7)Toosie Slide by Drake
6)Bang! by AJR(unless it doesn't make the 2020 year end and instead makes the 2021)
5)Savage Love by Jawsh 685 and Jason Derulo
4)Falling by Trevor Daniel
3)Memories by Maroon 5
2)If the World Was Ending by JP Saxe amd Julia Michaels
1)Yummy by Justin Bieber
Dishonorable mentions:
-POPSTAR by DJ Khaled feat. Drake(put in place of Bang! If it misses year end)
-Intentions by Justin Bieber feat. Quavo
-Before You Go by Lewis Capaldi
-Hard To Forget by Sam Hunt
-Suicidal(remix) by YNW Melly and Juice WRLD
-Like That by Kane Brown, Swae Lee and Khalid
-Got What I Got by Jason Aldean
-We Paid by Lil Baby amd 42 Dugg
-Walk Em Down by NLE Choppa feat. Roddy Ricch
-ILY by Surf Mesa feat. Emilee

[liam1396]

Literally a minute after i posted my revised list i find out that billboard juat released their year end list. Bang! Didn't Make it(thank god) so guess POPSTAR gies to number 6 and either My Oh My or Nobody But You can replace it in the dishonorable mentions

[xtynaaguilera99]

Does someone have the corrected chart points of every single song to make the YE?

[Groovy]

Even though it didn't make the year-end, Trollz is still my worst song of 2020 by a mile.

[reputainbow]

did a comparison of 2020 YE prediction vs. the actual one and lmaoo literally all the late 2019/early 2020 songs are mostly higher than i projected, and on the flip side late 2020 songs are mostly lower. maybe it has to do with chart points? but here it is:

SPOILER: Click to show

{Year-End Comparison}

[mikerivera]

Dec 3, 2020 14:46:36 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

Does someone have the corrected chart points of every single song to make the YE?

Currently working on that. Trying to make it as accurate as possible, so I expect it to take about a week to finish

[xtynaaguilera99]

Dec 3, 2020 15:08:09 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Dec 3, 2020 14:46:36 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

Does someone have the corrected chart points of every single song to make the YE?

Currently working on that. Trying to make it as accurate as possible, so I expect it to take about a week to finish

Ok, thanks!

[mikerivera]

Dec 3, 2020 14:59:07 GMT -5 reputainbow said:

did a comparison of 2020 YE prediction vs. the actual one and lmaoo literally all the late 2019/early 2020 songs are mostly higher than i projected, and on the flip side late 2020 songs are mostly lower. maybe it has to do with chart points? but here it is:

SPOILER: Click to show

{Year-End Comparison}

Yeah, I’d say the main reason is because the weeks around Christmas are loaded with Christmas songs, so pretty much every song on the chart outperforms its inverse. Even then, they still placed a bit higher than most predictors were expecting, which is why that’s the first thing I’m trying to correct on my personal data

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 3, 2020 10:20:47 GMT -5 @bamatom48 said:

Dec 3, 2020 8:46:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

TUSA DOESN'T MAKE IT ENDING NICKI'S YEAR-END LIST STREAK

Sadly, 2020 also officially marks the end of Taylor Swift's streak of year end list appearances.

First time since Teardrops On My Guitar started the run in 2007 that she does not make an appearance.

I know this was expected, although in the back of my mind I was hoping Cardigan might make a surprise appearance at the end of this list, especially since it was a fantastic song.

F and the real irony is that her record in YE is the same number as her favorite number (13)

[mikerivera]

Prediction: Folklore will be for Taylor Swift what Lemonade was for Beyoncé. Her least successful album commercially that marks the end of her being a major chart presence, but a massive critical success that sets her up to be relevant and widely respected for the rest of her life, with or without charting hits

[adam]

Fun fact: this is the first Year-End list since 2006 without any Taylor Swift.

[inverse]

Nicki Minaj lost her streak too which means the top 5 streaks are now mostly comprised of a 4-way tie from 2015

Drake - 12 years (since 2009)
Ariana Grande - 8 years (since 2013)
Justin Bieber
Selena Gomez
Camila Cabello

Shawn Mendes - 6 years (since 2015)

Those last 3 are all really iffy to make 2021 I think they're mostly nearing the end of their superstardom and they've been relying on radio for awhile now

[gikem]

Dec 3, 2020 15:13:26 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Dec 3, 2020 14:59:07 GMT -5 reputainbow said:

did a comparison of 2020 YE prediction vs. the actual one and lmaoo literally all the late 2019/early 2020 songs are mostly higher than i projected, and on the flip side late 2020 songs are mostly lower. maybe it has to do with chart points? but here it is:

SPOILER: Click to show

{Year-End Comparison}

Yeah, I’d say the main reason is because the weeks around Christmas are loaded with Christmas songs, so pretty much every song on the chart outperforms its inverse. Even then, they still placed a bit higher than most predictors were expecting, which is why that’s the first thing I’m trying to correct on my personal data

I already know that a few songs that saw peaks in the winter would have seen higher peaks if the Christmas songs didn't chart. ROXANNE would have peaked at #2 (behind Circles), BOP at #8, and Ballin' at #10. Not sure what other songs that made the YE would have seen different peaks.

[54generation]

Didn't expect AIWFCIY to be this high on the YE chart. Now I'm kinda worried that if there will be more and more Christmas songs snagging up spots on future YE charts, which feels kinda weird in retrospect.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 3, 2020 15:59:44 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nicki Minaj lost her streak too which means the top 5 streaks are now mostly comprised of a 4-way tie from 2015

Drake - 12 years (since 2009)
Ariana Grande - 8 years (since 2013)
Justin Bieber
Selena Gomez
Camila Cabello

Shawn Mendes - 6 years (since 2015)

Those last 3 are all really iffy to make 2021 I think they're mostly nearing the end of their superstardom and they've been relying on radio for awhile now

Bieber and Mendes should be pretty safe if "Monster" enters next year's list

[mikerivera]

Dec 3, 2020 16:10:27 GMT -5 54generation said:

Didn't expect AIWFCIY to be this high on the YE chart. Now I'm kinda worried that if there will be more and more Christmas songs snagging up spots on future YE charts, which feels kinda weird in retrospect.

Part of the reason AIWFCIY is so high is because they released a new video for it last year. It’ll probably go to #1 again, but I doubt it’ll be as high on the 2021 YE. The only other Christmas song that I think will have a chance at making the list is Rockin Around the Christmas Tree

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2020 16:24:04 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Dec 3, 2020 16:10:27 GMT -5 54generation said:

Didn't expect AIWFCIY to be this high on the YE chart. Now I'm kinda worried that if there will be more and more Christmas songs snagging up spots on future YE charts, which feels kinda weird in retrospect.

Part of the reason AIWFCIY is so high is because they released a new video for it last year. It’ll probably go to #1 again, but I doubt it’ll be as high on the 2021 YE. The only other Christmas song that I think will have a chance at making the list is Rockin Around the Christmas Tree

There's something fundamentally weird to me about only 66 songs in 2020 being bigger hits than a Christmas song from 25 years ago

[anthony11554]

Isn't this the first time AIWFCIY made the us year end chart at all

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 3, 2020 16:24:04 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Part of the reason AIWFCIY is so high is because they released a new video for it last year. It’ll probably go to #1 again, but I doubt it’ll be as high on the 2021 YE. The only other Christmas song that I think will have a chance at making the list is Rockin Around the Christmas Tree

I agree on the later point. Regarding AIWFCIY, I would think it should be able to place higher in the 2021 Year-End Hot 100 since it is already tracking ahead positionwise in the Hot 100 compared to last season. And that's not counting the boost from holiday special that will premiere on Apple TV+ tomorrow.

[phieaglesfan712]

Dec 2, 2020 22:05:53 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Dec 2, 2020 15:43:13 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

We’ll see, but if it does, it’s almost certain that this will be a 52 week year.

Gosh, the chart year will keep going back further and further if they don't do a 53 week year soon. Eventually they'll have to go full NBA or NHL and have the chart year officially split between two calendar years.

BILLBOARD YEAR-END HOT 100 SINGLES OF 2048-49
September 26th, 2048 - September 18th, 2049
1: -
2: -
3: -
...
76: Blinding Lights by The Weeknd

I can't wait for that article, which will read something like this:

After appearing on Billboard's Top 100 hits for the 2040s decade (its third consecutive decade), Blinding Lights makes it 30 straight year-end charting appearances, coming in at #76 for 2049. Blinding Lights was Billboard's #1 song of the year 2020, the 2020s decade, and last year's 90th anniversary chart...

The last time Blinding Lights was not on a year end chart was in 2019, when Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady was in his final season with the New England Patriots, the recently retired Patrick Mahomes was months away from winning his first Super Bowl Championship, and Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas is You" was climbing its way to #1 for the first time ever...

If Blinding Lights is still charting in January, it will become the first non-holiday song to chart in 5 consecutive decades (2010s, 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s).

[mikerivera]

Assuming they want to keep publishing the YE list the first Thursday of December and need three weeks of preparation to do so, then you would expect 2022 to be the year they do 53 weeks. If they don’t, then there will only be 1 week of November that year

[gikem]

Dec 3, 2020 18:19:59 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Assuming they want to keep publishing the YE list the first Thursday of December and need three weeks of preparation to do so, then you would expect 2022 to be the year they do 53 weeks. If they don’t, then there will only be 1 week of November that year

2022 would still have 2 weeks of November if they end on 11/12/2022 and publish on Thursday, December 1. That would mean 2023 would have to be the next 53-week year (11/19/2022-11/18/2023; first Thursday of December is the 7th that year).

[Abbaschand]

From my predictions, Lemonade (predicted #86) is the highest song that missed the actual year-end, since Crooked Smile (predicted #86, 2013).

FYI: The lowest song that made it to the actual year-end, is Hello (predicted #196, made it in #35, 2015).