2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 5, 2019 20:50:55 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Dec 5, 2019 19:57:48 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

It would have to have an epic collapse in order to not make it and I just can't see that happening with how radio-friendly it is

I’m just worried we’ll have another I Feel It Coming/Party Monster situation where one song’s a big hit and the other isn’t. Although I can see both Heartless and Blinding Lights being big hits in this case.

I feel like this will be more of a Sorry/Love Yourself situation. Both will be big it's just one will get the attention and promotion first.

[flextamcsignals]

Dec 6, 2019 1:19:39 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Dec 5, 2019 20:50:55 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

I’m just worried we’ll have another I Feel It Coming/Party Monster situation where one song’s a big hit and the other isn’t. Although I can see both Heartless and Blinding Lights being big hits in this case.

I feel like this will be more of a Sorry/Love Yourself situation. Both will be big it's just one will get the attention and promotion first.

Interesting you give that as an example, I was thinking like Shape Of You/Castle On The Hill

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 6, 2019 1:42:35 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Dec 6, 2019 1:19:39 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I feel like this will be more of a Sorry/Love Yourself situation. Both will be big it's just one will get the attention and promotion first.

Interesting you give that as an example, I was thinking like Shape Of You/Castle On The Hill

Lights is still strong on streaming and once it gets the radio push, it'll have longevity. Especially since it's the fan favorite.

[lifeofaguardian]

So, assuming Billboard wants to keep using a 52-week year and assuming 23/11/2019 was the first week of 2020 (Source), this Billboard year would end at 14/11/2020 (if I'm counting correctly).

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 6, 2019 3:51:04 GMT -5 lifeofaguardian said:

So, assuming Billboard wants to keep using a 52-week year and assuming 23/11/2019 was the first week of 2020 (Source), this Billboard year would end at 14/11/2020 (if I'm counting correctly).

Within that topic, if they start from 11-23-19, the expected hit-or-miss on the YE songs (Lover, Hot, Ballin') has a pretty good chance to get in. Unless, they fall pretty quickly.

[spicymapping]

we back (in the speakers)

TL, DR: no it f**king isn't too long there are literally 2 songs try to increase your attention span

Added: Circles, Someone You Loved
Locked: None

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 1500

1. Circles
2. Someone You Loved

TRACKING CUTOFF - 1000

[Dadude#0839]

I’m redzoning GAH and Memories to being locked soon. Currently I also have Circles and Someone you Loved at 1 and 2 respectively. I expect Circles to still be in the top 10 of the YE predictions by the end of the year. Someone You Loved would drop out late May, assuming it makes a full 52 weeks.

[Deleted]

I just hope "Lover" doesn't get caught between years, and that "Don't Start Now" has enough longevity to make it to the Year-End. 🤞🤞🤞

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Never realized how bad of a year R&B had on the charts in 2019. Only 4 songs represented on the year-end list and one of them was Trip.

[Deleted]

Dec 6, 2019 10:51:44 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Never realized how bad of a year R&B had on the charts in 2019. Only 4 songs represented on the year-end list and one of them was Trip.

If only "On Chill" had made it... Another song I fear might get caught between years, but hopefully not.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Baby fucking Shark was the 9th most streamed song in 2019 according to the year-end charts for streaming

[Lukas]

Dec 6, 2019 12:55:23 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Baby f**king Shark was the 9th most streamed song in 2019 according to the year-end charts for streaming

And it's still on the streaming charts at around #30 as of right now. The longevity the song has is insane; it could make the 2020 Year-End for Streaming as well.

[Deleted]

Here's what I got for the tracking for the 2020 year end list so far. I include the weeks of 11/23/19 and 11/30/19 in the calculations.

1 Circles 850
2 Someone You Loved 815
3 Good As Hell 695
4 Memories 670
5 Senorita 630
6 Lose You To Love Me 620
7 Truth Hurts 593
8 No Guidance 592
9 10,000 Hours 582
10 Panini 567
11 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 544
12 Roxanne 541
13 Trampoline 527
14 Bad Guy 527
15 Dance Monkey 487
16 Lover 469
17 Woah 468
18 Hot 468
19 Ballin' 464
20 Even Though I'm Leaving 462
21 Beautiful People 455
22 Ran$om 449
23 Only Human 448
24 One Man Band 442
25 Old Town Road 434
26 BOP 424
27 All I Want For Christmas Is You 412
28 Bandit 410
29 Everything I Wanted 404
30 On Chill 395
31 Playing Games 376
32 Heat 369
33 Graveyard 364
34 Don't Start Now 350
35 Hot Girl Bummer 342
36 Juicy 315
37 The Bones 313
38 Take What You Want 306
39 Falling 187

40 Heartless 128

41 Vete 127

Note: I am only including songs that I feel have a chance at making the list, which is why a lot of songs might seem missing here.

Examples: I Don't Care, Talk, Baby, How Do You Sleep?, Goodbyes, Suge, One Thing Right, and every Christmas song minus AIWFCIY.

[weirdo]

So which songs does everyone think is gonna repeat?. For me its Senorita, Spmeone You Loved, Cirvles (pbviously. Probably will go top 20), Bad Guy, Old Town Road & possibly Truth Hurts

[weirdo]

Dec 7, 2019 5:55:02 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Here's what I got for the tracking for the 2020 year end list so far. I include the weeks of 11/23/19 and 11/30/19 in the calculations.

1 Circles 850
2 Someone You Loved 815
3 Good As Hell 695
4 Memories 670
5 Senorita 630
6 Lose You To Love Me 620
7 Truth Hurts 593
8 No Guidance 592
9 10,000 Hours 582
10 Panini 567
11 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 544
12 Roxanne 541
13 Trampoline 527
14 Bad Guy 527
15 Dance Monkey 487
16 Lover 469
17 Woah 468
18 Hot 468
19 Ballin' 464
20 Even Though I'm Leaving 462
21 Beautiful People 455
22 Ran$om 449
23 Only Human 448
24 One Man Band 442
25 Old Town Road 434
26 BOP 424
27 All I Want For Christmas Is You 412
28 Bandit 410
29 Everything I Wanted 404
30 On Chill 395
31 Playing Games 376
32 Heat 369
33 Graveyard 364
34 Don't Start Now 350
35 Hot Girl Bummer 342
36 Juicy 315
37 The Bones 313
38 Take What You Want 306
39 Falling 187

40 Heartless 128

41 Vete 127

Note: I am only including songs that I feel have a chance at making the list, which is why a lot of songs might seem missing here.

Examples: I Don't Care, Talk, Baby, How Do You Sleep?, Goodbyes, Suge, One Thing Right, and every Christmas song minus AIWFCIY.

But what would you do if one of these songs sonehow did make rhe chart. If Talk survives Christmas it could MAYBE just barely reach the 95 to 100 range. Now thats very unlikely but what would you do if that did happen

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2019 10:45:45 GMT -5 weirdo said:

Dec 7, 2019 5:55:02 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Note: I am only including songs that I feel have a chance at making the list, which is why a lot of songs might seem missing here.

Examples: I Don't Care, Talk, Baby, How Do You Sleep?, Goodbyes, Suge, One Thing Right, and every Christmas song minus AIWFCIY.

But what would you do if one of these songs sonehow did make rhe chart. If Talk survives Christmas it could MAYBE just barely reach the 95 to 100 range. Now thats very unlikely but what would you do if that did happen

If any song I did not include stays long enough on the charts, I will start to track them. I'm only excluding them now to save time and effort.

[weirdo]

Dec 7, 2019 12:37:01 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Dec 7, 2019 10:45:45 GMT -5 weirdo said:

But what would you do if one of these songs sonehow did make rhe chart. If Talk survives Christmas it could MAYBE just barely reach the 95 to 100 range. Now thats very unlikely but what would you do if that did happen

If any song I did not include stays long enough on the charts, I will start to track them. I'm only excluding them now to save time and effort.

OK, that makes sense. I doubt you'll have to track them anyways. I doubt any of those songs have a chance at all. Talk has maybe a 10 percent chance but even thats unlikely

[rockgolf]

So it's December 7, 2019, and as I understand it we are 3 weeks into the 2020 Year-End Charts! I'm basing this on the start/end dates for the 2019 charts and extrapolating.

With that in mind, here's my first interim Top 100 of 2020 chart.

I've slightly modified my formula, basically giving all songs more points for just making it on the charts each week, and introducing an additional 10 point bonus for making it into the top 50. This should improve the chart scoring of low-charting but long running songs like Walk Me Home and Talk You Out Of It, which I underestimated significantly in my 2019 predictions, and make it harder for latecomers and short-lived tracks (like Christmas hits) to make the chart. I suspect songs will need about 1500 points to ensure a place in the top 100 at the end of the year.

[sirskimask]

Way too early predictions for the 2020 YE list

Very Likely
Circles
Someone You Loved
Good As Hell
Memories
Roxanne
Lose You To Love Me
Senorita
10,000 Hours
Truth Hurts
Dance Monkey
Bandit (RIP Juice)

Likely
No Guidance
Panini
bad guy
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM
Trampoline
Old Town Road
AIWFCIY

Possible
BOP
Ballin
Lover
Hot
One Man Band
Graveyard

Unlikely
Only Human
On Chill
Beautiful People
Even Though I'm Leaving
Talk
Heat
Hot Girl Bummer

Very Unlikely
The rest

Too early to tell/unsure:
Heartless
everything i wanted
Falling
Woah
Don't Start Now
Take What You Want
Juicy

[Abbaschand]

If I'm not mistaken, there could be 8 scenarios this year.

Scenario 1: 11/23-11/14 (52)
Scenario 2: 11/30-11/14 (51)
Scenario 3: 11/23-11/21 (53)
Scenario 4: 11/30-11/21 (52)
Scenario 5: 12/07-11/21 (51)
Scenario 6: 11/23-11/28 (54)
Scenario 7: 11/30-11/28 (53)
Scenario 8: 12/07-11/28 (52)

And Scenario 1 is the likeliest one to be picked. But I like Scenario 6, since it's the "Everyone Wins" scenario.

[sirskimask]

Dec 8, 2019 3:20:03 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

If I'm not mistaken, there could be 8 scenarios this year.

Scenario 1: 11/23-11/14 (52)
Scenario 2: 11/30-11/14 (51)
Scenario 3: 11/23-11/21 (53)
Scenario 4: 11/30-11/21 (52)
Scenario 5: 12/07-11/21 (51)
Scenario 6: 11/23-11/28 (54)
Scenario 7: 11/30-11/28 (53)
Scenario 8: 12/07-11/28 (52)

And Scenario 1 is the likeliest one to be picked. But I like Scenario 6, since it's the "Everyone Wins" scenario.

I can't see 5 or 8 happening, that would require them to totally skip 2 whole weeks which would be kinda ridiculous imo

[Deleted]

This is the year All I Want For Christmas is You will make the year end chart

[nathanalbright]

Do you think Bandit will enjoy any posthumous bump for the late and not very lamented JuiceWRLD?

[lurker2]

Dec 8, 2019 13:26:07 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Do you think Bandit will enjoy any posthumous bump for the late and not very lamented JuiceWRLD?

I think it will, but not as much as Sad! got. It was X’s biggest hit, and IMO Juice’s’ll be more split between it, Lucid Dreams, and maybe Robbery and Legends.

[spicymapping]

1. Go fuck yourself
2. Yes

[nathanalbright]

Dec 8, 2019 13:31:36 GMT -5 lurker2 said:

Dec 8, 2019 13:26:07 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Do you think Bandit will enjoy any posthumous bump for the late and not very lamented JuiceWRLD?

I think it will, but not as much as Sad! got. It was X’s biggest hit, and IMO Juice’s’ll be more split between it, Lucid Dreams, and maybe Robbery and Legends.

Fair enough.  I just wish, like with X, that he had created better music for his legacy, but we will lack the time to see him mature into a worthy and talented artist.

[lights]

Dec 8, 2019 3:20:03 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

If I'm not mistaken, there could be 8 scenarios this year.

Scenario 1: 11/23-11/14 (52)
Scenario 2: 11/30-11/14 (51)
Scenario 3: 11/23-11/21 (53)
Scenario 4: 11/30-11/21 (52)
Scenario 5: 12/07-11/21 (51)
Scenario 6: 11/23-11/28 (54)
Scenario 7: 11/30-11/28 (53)
Scenario 8: 12/07-11/28 (52)

And Scenario 1 is the likeliest one to be picked. But I like Scenario 6, since it's the "Everyone Wins" scenario.

It's not ending on 11/28 and it's not starting on 12/07.

There's 4 possibilities, the first 4. I'd say 1 is by far the most likely, followed by 3.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Considering Circles has a chance to end up in the year-end Top 10 of 2020 thanks to it's longevity, that's going to be four years in a row Post Malone has made the top 10! That's got to be a record right?

[lights]

Mariah Carey had a year-end top 10 hit in 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996.

There may be other examples.

[atg]

Dec 9, 2019 13:23:36 GMT -5 lights said:

Mariah Carey had a year-end top 10 hit in 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996.

There may be other examples.

So Post tying the record?