2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[sirskimask]

Dec 9, 2019 13:23:36 GMT -5 lights said:

Mariah Carey had a year-end top 10 hit in 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996.

There may be other examples.

Elton John: 1973-1976

I couldn't find anyone with 5 though so 4 might be the record.

[GPMB]

Dec 6, 2019 12:55:23 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Baby f**king Shark was the 9th most streamed song in 2019 according to the year-end charts for streaming

it's also still in the top 10 of the Hot 100 Recurrents chart

[spicymapping]

we back (in black, getting blasted in the bleachers)

TL, DR: ok there aren't two but still please just increase your attention span.

Added: Good As Hell, Memories
Locked: Circles

1. Circles

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 1500

2. Someone You Loved
3. Good As Helll
4. Memories

TRACKING CUTOFF - 1000

this will be interesting eventually i swear

[lights]

How on Earth do you come to conclusion that Circles is 'locked' after 4 weeks? Not even close.

[spicymapping]

You’re right, I’m updating my formula to use post-OTR data instead of post-IMF Tonight and that should fix it

[tuna]

I predict that Blinding Lights will be top 10 for the year. It did almost equal numbers to Heartless despite not having any relative promotion- With a good video and radio push it could probably go #1 for 5+ weeks

[tanooki]

12/14 - Week 4

1. Circles 1150
2. Someone You Loved 1063
3. Good As Hell 932
4. Memories 907
5. Lose You to Love Me 839
6. Senorita 797
7. 10,000 Hours 787
8. Roxanne 776
9. No Guidance 770
10. Panini 737
11. Truth Hurts 734
12. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 675
13. Trampoline 665
14. Dance Monkey 654
15. bad guy 653
16. All I Want For Christmas Is You 621
17. Beautiful People 604
18. BOP 603
19. Ballin' 600
20. Woah 571
21. Hot 569
22. Lover 564
23. Even Though I'm Leaving 558
24. One Man Band 532
25. Old Town Road 532
26. Only Human 531
27. Ran$om 524
28. everything I wanted 513
29. Bandit 480
30. On Chill 474
31. I Don't Care 447
32. Talk 432
33. Heartless 411
34. Baby 410
35. How Do You Sleep? 409
36. Graveyard 400
37. Playing Games 399
38. Heat 398
39. Don't Start Now 387
40. hot girl bummer 360
41. Time 346
42. Juicy 335
43. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 333
44. Goodbyes 332
45. The Bones 332
46. Take What You Want 324
47. Heart on Ice 315
48. 223's 311
49. What If I Never Get Over You 311
50. Remember You Young 310

[flextamcsignals]

Dec 8, 2019 3:20:03 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

If I'm not mistaken, there could be 8 scenarios this year.

Scenario 1: 11/23-11/14 (52)
Scenario 2: 11/30-11/14 (51)
Scenario 3: 11/23-11/21 (53)
Scenario 4: 11/30-11/21 (52)
Scenario 5: 12/07-11/21 (51)
Scenario 6: 11/23-11/28 (54)
Scenario 7: 11/30-11/28 (53)
Scenario 8: 12/07-11/28 (52)

And Scenario 1 is the likeliest one to be picked. But I like Scenario 6, since it's the "Everyone Wins" scenario.

I’m sorry, but I don’t see a scenario where a) the chart year isn’t 52 weeks long, and b) they don’t count a week. Why would they do that?

[Lukas]

Dec 10, 2019 15:55:11 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Dec 8, 2019 3:20:03 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

If I'm not mistaken, there could be 8 scenarios this year.

Scenario 1: 11/23-11/14 (52)
Scenario 2: 11/30-11/14 (51)
Scenario 3: 11/23-11/21 (53)
Scenario 4: 11/30-11/21 (52)
Scenario 5: 12/07-11/21 (51)
Scenario 6: 11/23-11/28 (54)
Scenario 7: 11/30-11/28 (53)
Scenario 8: 12/07-11/28 (52)

And Scenario 1 is the likeliest one to be picked. But I like Scenario 6, since it's the "Everyone Wins" scenario.

I’m sorry, but I don’t see a scenario where a) the chart year isn’t 52 weeks long, and b) they don’t count a week. Why would they do that?

I'm with you on the second part, but not on the first one. If Billboard keeps doing 52 week year-ends and don't skip any weeks, they will eventually end their year-end lists even earlier than they are now, in October or even earlier later on. Why would they do that?

Also, 2013 had 53 weeks, meaning that scenario 3 is still a possibility. You just never know.

[sirskimask]

Dec 10, 2019 15:56:53 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Dec 10, 2019 15:55:11 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

I’m sorry, but I don’t see a scenario where a) the chart year isn’t 52 weeks long, and b) they don’t count a week. Why would they do that?

I'm with you on the second part, but not on the first one. If Billboard keeps doing 52 week year-ends and don't skip any weeks, they will eventually end their year-end lists even earlier than they are now, in October or even earlier later on. Why would they do that?

Also, 2013 had 53 weeks, meaning that scenario 3 is still a possibility. You just never know.

I agree that 53 weeks is possible but I don't see any chance of it only being 51

[earth]

I definitely think Blinding Lights will be promoted on radio, at least it should be. It's perfectly radio accessible while also being well-loved. I could definitely see the weeknd getting 2 more top 40 year end hits.

[Deleted]

I don't care where Blinding Lights places, as long as it makes the 2020 year end chart in general. It's one of the best songs I've heard all year, along with God's Country and Take What You Want (I hope this can somehow make it too but I don't think it will unfortunately).

[weirdo]

Dec 10, 2019 23:03:56 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I don't care where Blinding Lights places, as long as it makes the 2020 year end chart in general. It's one of the best songs I've heard all year, along with God's Country and Take What You Want (I hope this can somehow make it too but I don't think it will unfortunately).

Yeah. Post Malone really needs to start pushing Take What You Want or else it'll start fading out. That song really has wasted potential. Circles alresdy hit #1 so he needs to promote Take What You Want before its too late

[sirskimask]

Dec 11, 2019 0:12:36 GMT -5 weirdo said:

Dec 10, 2019 23:03:56 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I don't care where Blinding Lights places, as long as it makes the 2020 year end chart in general. It's one of the best songs I've heard all year, along with God's Country and Take What You Want (I hope this can somehow make it too but I don't think it will unfortunately).

Yeah. Post Malone really needs to start pushing Take What You Want or else it'll start fading out. That song really has wasted potential. Circles alresdy hit #1 so he needs to promote Take What You Want before its too late

For starters he should drop a video 

[weirdo]

Dec 11, 2019 0:34:48 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Dec 11, 2019 0:12:36 GMT -5 weirdo said:

Yeah. Post Malone really needs to start pushing Take What You Want or else it'll start fading out. That song really has wasted potential. Circles alresdy hit #1 so he needs to promote Take What You Want before its too late

For starters he should drop a video 

Agreed. I think if he does push it it will probably happen after Christmas. Thats probably (and hopefully) why hes waiting

[twelvevinylrecords]

I think that Heartless is going to be the last newly released song to reach number one. Whether AIWFCIY or Lucid Dreams reach #1, Heartless is probably going to be the last “new” song to reach #1 this decade. Very interesting.

[spicymapping]

Formula fixed, woo! I'm going to post a redo of my last year predictions with the new formula to show its accuracy (though it's tailored to be accurate in 2020 and likely is better now than back then)

Update: formula 2 has no idea what the f**k to do with #1 hits and nerfs them way too hard but everything else is more accurate so yay. I expected it to nerf all of the top and make me miss BF as well, but surprisingly BF didn't move. Only miss was Beautiful, which ends up at 101 with Girl at 100. Nice.

[spicymapping]

Alright, here it is. +/- isn't change from my original formula, but the change in the difference from the actual chart.

1 (=) Sunflower
2 (-1) Without Me
3 (-1) Old Town Road
4 (-1) Wow.
5 (-1) bad guy
6 (+1) Happier
7 (-1) Sucker
8 (+2) Talk
9 (-1) 7 Rings
10 (+1) SICKO MODE
11 (+2) High Hopes
12 (-1) Dancing With a Stranger
13 (+4) Truth Hurts
14 (-2) thank u, next
15 (-2) Eastside
16 (=) I Don't Care
17 (-1) Señorita
18 (=) Shallow
19 (=) Going Bad
20 (+2) Better
21 (=) Sweet But Psycho
22 (-1) Suge
23 (+1) Girls Like You
24 (-2) No Guidance
25 (+1) MIDDLE CHILD
26 (+5) Someone You Loved
27 (+1) Drip Too Hard
28 (+1) Ran$om
29 (=) If I Can’t Have You
30 (=) Goodbyes
31 (-1) Speechless
32 (=) ZEZE
33 (=) Money In The Grave
34 (=) Better Now
35 (+2) Youngblood
36 (+1) You Need To Calm Down
37 (+6) Please Me
38 (+1) Money
39 (+3) Panini
40 (-1) break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored
41 (=) Pop Out
42 (+2) Look Back At It
43 (-1) a lot
44 (+1) MIA
45 (+1) Beautiful Crazy
46 (-5) Whiskey Glasses
47 (-2) God's Country
48 (+3) Beautiful People
49 (-2) Thotiana
50 (-3) Be Alright
51 (-1) Lucid Dreams
52 (-6) ME!
53 (-1) Pure Water
54 (-3) You Say
55 (-2) Mo Bamba
56 (-2) Wake Up In The Sky
57 (-1) Close To Me
58 (+6) Envy Me
59 (-2) The Git Up
60 (+1) Hey Look Ma, I Made It
61 (-1) Taki Taki
62 (=) Beer Never Broke My Heart
63 (+2) The London
64 (-1) Con Calma
65 (-1) when the party’s over
66 (+6) Circles
67 (=) Trampoline
68 (+1) Act Up
69 (-1) Murder on My Mind
70 (=) I Like It
71 (-2) Close Friends
72 (-1) Leave Me Alone
73 (+3) bury a friend
74 (=) My Type
75 (+2) Baby Shark
76 (+3) Only Human
77 (-5) Breathin
78 (+3) Worth It
79 (=) Knockin' Boots
80 (+2) Baby
81 (+1) How Do You Sleep?
82 (+1) Swervin
83 (+1) Rumor
84 (-1) Tequila
85 (-2) One Thing Right
86 (-2) Cash Shit
87 (+3) Clout
88 (+1) Look What God Gave Her
89 (-7) Trip
90 (+1) Good as You
91 (+5) Hot Girl Summer
92 (+1) Shotta Flow
93 (-1) Talk You Out Of It
94 (-3) All To Myself
95 (-3) Love Lies
96 (+2) Eyes on You
97 (+2) Boyfriend
98 (+4) Walk Me Home
99 (=) Robbery
101 (-1) Beautiful

In total, this new formula is 14 spots more accurate. I'll post a revamped version of below 100 over in the 2019 predictions for whoever's interested.

[sirskimask]

So now that the 2019 YE list is out and we're a few weeks into the new tracking year let me try the predictions for songs chances of repeating again

Very Likely
Circles
Someone You Loved

Likely
No Guidance
Senorita
bad guy

Possible
Truth Hurts
Trampoline
Panini
Old Town Road
Ran$om

Unlikely
Only Human
Beautiful People

No chance
Talk
I Don't Care
Baby
How Do You Sleep?

[alejandropadronv04]

Can Lucid dreams make it in the 2020 year end?!?

[sirskimask]

Dec 11, 2019 21:37:00 GMT -5 alejandropadronv04 said:

Can Lucid dreams make it in the 2020 year end?!?

It's not gonna stick around long enough for that. It'll re-enter high and then most likely fall off again after like 3-4 weeks. Don't forget it's close to 52 weeks also so that'll kick it out if it's not already gone by then. Bandit will be a lock for 2020 though.

[Deleted]

possible that Ransom could hang around long enough it could sneak into the Bottom 10 w the Remix boost

[sirskimask]

Dec 12, 2019 3:13:25 GMT -5 @killamonjaro said:

possible that Ransom could hang around long enough it could sneak into the Bottom 10 w the Remix boost

Shoot I totally forgot about the Juice remix. Editing the list now

[dremolus - solarpunk]

New USPOP come Monday.

[atg]

So would AIWFCIY be locked for the year end? Billboard is now so inaccurate in the charting weeks and the song usually charts around late november so there’s that to consider

[Deleted]

Due to the onslaught of Christmas songs this week and the weeks to come, I am not too sure how many points to allocate to the lower charting songs that are being pushed back. This was the reason I overestimated This Is It's score, which also charted during the Christmas and album bomb onslaughts in 2018. I might adjust the scores of the lower charting songs later, but for now here's week 4 of my 2020 year end predictions.

1 Circles 1140

2 Someone You Loved 1065
3 Good As Hell 935
4 Memories 915
5 Lose You To Love Me 840
6 Senorita 805
7 10,000 Hours 782
8 Roxanne 776
9 No Guidance 772
10 Truth Hurts 750
11 Panini 740
12 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 714
13 Trampoline 698
14 Bad Guy 691
15 Dance Monkey 672
16 All I Want For Christmas Is You 672
17 Ballin' 638
18 Hot 616
19 Woah 614
20 BOP 614
21 Lover 609
22 Even Though I'm Leaving 592
23 Beautiful People 589
24 Only Human 586
25 One Man Band 586
26 Ran$om 581
27 Old Town Road 576
28 Everything I Wanted 554
29 Bandit 539
30 On Chill 531
31 Playing Games 493
32 Graveyard 490
33 Heat 481
34 Don't Start Now 477
35 Hot Girl Bummer 457
36 Heartless 428
37 Juicy 425
38 The Bones 422
39 Take What You Want 411
40 Falling 315
41 Vete 227
42 Into The Unknown 222
43 Blinding Lights 195

[Deleted]

The Billboard Charts these last few weeks have hindered my hopes that "Lover", "On Chill", "Don't Start Now", and "Take What You Want" make it to the 2020 Year-End.
I have a feeling "Don't Start Now" might end up in a similar scenario to the equally underrated "Nothing Breaks Like A Heart" from last year.

Nevertheless, I will predict that "All I Want For Christmas Is You" is very likely going to make it, and that the future top 5 songs of the year have yet to chart.

[weirdo]

Dec 12, 2019 11:30:31 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

The Billboard Charts these last few weeks have hindered my hopes that "Lover", "On Chill", "Don't Start Now", and "Take What You Want" make it to the 2020 Year-End.
I have a feeling "Don't Start Now" might end up in a similar scenario to the equally underrated "Nothing Breaks Like A Heart" from last year.

Nevertheless, I will predict that "All I Want For Christmas Is You" is very likely going to make it, and that the future top 5 songs of the year have yet to chart.

Post Malone really made a mistake in not promoting Take What You Want. That could have been a huge hit but instead hes letting it fade out. Will probably be gone in a few weeks

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^He did perform at the AMAs. A proper video for the song would have helped the song.

[weirdo]

Dec 12, 2019 12:08:01 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^He did perform at the AMAs. A proper video for the song would have helped the song.

Did he ever send it to radio?. I think that, along with his peformance at the AMAs and with a proper music video, would have pushed the song to the Top 10.