Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 3:47:16 GMT -5
Kinfolks is going to miss!!!!!!!!!! Personally I don't care about the song but a lot of you seem to dislike it so I'll join in on the excitement I actually like the song a lot but it's a complete guilty pleasure and I totally understand why someone would hate it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 3:50:22 GMT -5
also it looks like Heart on Ice could become the third song to make a YE without a top 50 peak If it stays after all the album bombs, it will def rise above #50. It's #42 this week without all the Uzi/Jhene album bombs. Even though it's pretty unlikely, I hope Heart On Ice stays below #50 so we could have another sub 50 peak song on a year end list. I was somewhat bummed when Worth It reached #48 on its last week because getting a song on the year end that peaks in the 40s is not that uncommon now.
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lights
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Post by lights on Mar 17, 2020 6:39:42 GMT -5
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lights
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Post by lights on Mar 17, 2020 6:57:07 GMT -5
Graphs
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lights
Charting
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Joined: August 2019
Posts: 397
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Post by lights on Mar 17, 2020 7:03:31 GMT -5
Now that Kinfolks has dropped out I can post the final version of this. I know some other people have posted this but I figured I may as well post one with my own numbers, now that all the borderline songs have dropped out.
List of songs projected to be caught between 2019/2020. This is a list of all the songs that, according to my estimates, have more than 1693 points (2019 cutoff) in total, but fewer than 1693 in any one year. Also included is where this would’ve placed them on the 2019 year-end:
Lover: 2784 (1477+1307) #61 On Chill: 2760 (1543+1217) #61 Take What You Want: 2121 (1163+958) #79 Graveyard: 2109 (795+1314) #80 Playing Games: 2101 (1035+1066) #80 Heat: 1972 (944+1028) #83 Kinfolks 1915 (286 + 1629) #86 VIBEZ: 1863 (585+1278) #91 Time: 1837 (1422+ 415) #91 Camelot: 1824 (857+967) #92 Prayed For You: 1745 (1254+491) #95 223s: 1716 (920+796) #97
Others that didn’t quite have enough even combined into one year:
I Don’t Know About You: 1678 (1535+ 143) Heartache Medication: 1671 (387+1284) What If I Never Get Over You: 1635 (672+963) Enemies: 1618 (952+666)
Predicted to just make 2020, but not quite locked:
Even Though I’m Leaving 2739 (978+1761)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 8:26:03 GMT -5
Now that Kinfolks has dropped out I can post the final version of this. I know some other people have posted this but I figured I may as well post one with my own numbers, now that all the borderline songs have dropped out. List of songs projected to be caught between 2019/2020. This is a list of all the songs that, according to my estimates, have more than 1693 points (2019 cutoff) in total, but fewer than 1693 in any one year. Also included is where this would’ve placed them on the 2019 year-end: Lover: 2784 (1477+1307) #61On Chill: 2760 (1543+1217) #61 Take What You Want: 2121 (1163+958) #79Graveyard: 2109 (795+1314) #80 Playing Games: 2101 (1035+1066) #80 Heat: 1972 (944+1028) #83 Kinfolks 1915 (286 + 1629) #86 VIBEZ: 1863 (585+1278) #91 Time: 1837 (1422+ 415) #91 Camelot: 1824 (857+967) #92 Prayed For You: 1745 (1254+491) #95 223s: 1716 (920+796) #97 You were fighters, but unfortunately poor release timing and the Billboard calendar screwed your chances to go down in history for future chart watchers 😭😭😭 At least you'll be in good company with the likes of "Misery Business" and "Purple Rain"...man, I just have to quote our Billboard Lord...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 8:49:26 GMT -5
The Box, LIG, DSN, Circles, and Roxanne will be top 10 in the YE.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 17, 2020 11:15:53 GMT -5
I think I agree with @pete's probable top tens. Could see Memories make it too.
Here's my latest prognostications including the March 21, 2020 chart published yesterday.
Some actual activity in the top ten! Remarkable! The Box finally climbs to #2, 10,000 Hours to #7 and Don't Start Now joins the top ten at #10!
Despite what others have said above, I think Kinfolks should make the year-end. I've estimated this year's cut-off to be 1700 points or lower. So Yummy has locked and Homesick & RITMO may be on the cusp.
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on Mar 17, 2020 11:41:21 GMT -5
hey i can make that we back joke again
TL, DR: Locked: Yummy, Juicy Added: Best On Earth, Vete, Sum 2 Prove, We Back, Intentions, What a Man Gotta Do
1. Circles (=) 2. Memories (+1) 3. Someone You Loved (-1) 4. The Box (=) 5. Roxanne (=) 6. Dance Monkey (=) 7. 10,000 Hours (+1) 8. Good As Hell (-1) 9. Lose You To Love Me (=) 10. Don't Start Now (+2) 11. Ballin' (-1) 12. Bop (-1) 13. Everything I Wanted (+2) 14. No Guidance (=) 15. Señorita (-2) 16. Life Is Good (+2) 17. Heartless (-1) 18. Woah (+2) 19. Highest In The Room (-2) 20. Bad Guy (-1) 21. Hot Girl Bummer (+1) 22. Blinding Lights (+3) 23. The Bones (+1) 24. Trampoline (-3) 25. Truth Hurts (-2) 26. One Man Band (=) 27. Adore You (+4) 28. Falling (=) 29. Bandit (-2) 30. Only Human (-1) 31. Hot (-1) 32. Panini (=) 33. Yummy (+1) 34. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-1) 35. Juicy (+1)
PREDICTED CUTOFF - 170K POINTS
36. Even Though I'm Leaving (-1) 37. My Oh My (+2) - WA: 1 38. Kinfolks (-1) 39. Heart On Ice (+1) - WA: 2 40. I Don't Care (-2) 41. High Fashion (+1) - WA: 3 42. Suicidal (-1) 43. Homesick (=) - WA: 3 44. RITMO (+2) - WA: 4 45. Sucker (-1) 46. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (-1) 47. Lover (=) 48. Godzilla (+7) - WA: 4 49. Ridin' Roads (-1) 50. Graveyard (-1) 51. Old Town Road (-1) 52. Heartache Medication (-1) 53. Tusa (+1) - WA: 8 54. You Should Be Sad (+2) - WA: 5 55. Vibez (-3) 56. On Chill (-3) 57. Futsal Shuffle 2020 (+1) - WA: 6 58. Best On Earth (NEW) - WA: 8 59. Vete (NEW) - WA: 8 60. Sum 2 Prove (NEW) - WA: 7 61. Ransom (-4) 62. We Back (NEW) - WA: 11 63. Intentions (NEW) - WA: 4 64. What A Man Gotta Do (NEW) - WA: 9
TRACKING CUTOFF - 100K POINTS
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Mar 17, 2020 11:44:15 GMT -5
The Box, LIG, DSN, Circles, and Roxanne will be top 10 in the YE. I think Roxanne will barely miss the Top 10. I still hold my early prediction that it'll end up #11.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Mar 17, 2020 13:28:44 GMT -5
also it looks like Heart on Ice could become the third song to make a YE without a top 50 peak If it stays after all the album bombs, it will def rise above #50. It's #42 this week without all the Uzi/Jhene album bombs. yeah but it only has two weeks left and for it’s first there will be another Uzi bomb and for its second there will be After Hours, ensuring it will most likely stay below 50 both weeks however for the week of 4/11 I can absolutely see it doing the same thing that GIRL by Maren Morris did last year and finally break into the top 50 just in time for its 21st week, except this time it will have a greater chance to make the YE than GIRL did last year since its chart performance has been strong out the gate as opposed to GIRL which had to do a long climb to get to where it peaked
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 14:50:04 GMT -5
Same, I honestly find songs that peak in the 40s-50s that make the year end list way more interesting as they used to be very rare until now.
I also have my eye on Heart On Ice (peak 54) since I think it could pull a Close Friends or Worth It and just barely make the 2020 year end list.
Heart On Ice is still in the 50s and it's looking likely that it could pull it off and scrape by. I'm not complaining though, it's a pretty good song. I am proud to say that my prediction was pretty much right.
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eidde
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Post by eidde on Mar 17, 2020 15:53:41 GMT -5
holy s**t...just realized that if songs are going to take a nosedive in points in the next couple weeks/months, songs that fell off earlier in the chart year and are currently toss-ups may have a much better chance of making the list
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Mar 17, 2020 20:20:15 GMT -5
holy s**t...just realized that if songs are going to take a nosedive in points in the next couple weeks/months, songs that fell off earlier in the chart year and are currently toss-ups may have a much better chance of making the list why do you suggest this will happen? is it going to be because of the dying down of album bombs or something related to coronavirus?
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eidde
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Post by eidde on Mar 17, 2020 20:28:23 GMT -5
holy s**t...just realized that if songs are going to take a nosedive in points in the next couple weeks/months, songs that fell off earlier in the chart year and are currently toss-ups may have a much better chance of making the list why do you suggest this will happen? is it going to be because of the dying down of album bombs or something related to coronavirus? the latter, but i feel like it can go both ways: radio audience impressions dropping from people spending less time in cars and streaming increasing because of people spending more time indoors
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
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My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Mar 17, 2020 21:04:44 GMT -5
The Box, LIG, DSN, Circles, and Roxanne will be top 10 in the YE. I'll replace "Roxanne" with "Blinding Lights".
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Mar 17, 2020 21:31:26 GMT -5
F*ck i accidentally pressed back and now i have to retype Week 18
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Mar 17, 2020 21:47:31 GMT -5
i'll be extremely happy if Heart On Ice makes it onto the y/e. it's a great song
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 18, 2020 3:26:57 GMT -5
Week 18 - 03/21/2020
Lots of new entries in our predictions thanks to the Lil Uzi Vert album bomb. I doubt many of them will stick around though.
Current Status (175.000 Points to be considered "Locked", 100.000 Points to be added to the playlist):
Added this week: Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove Jonas Brothers - What A Man Gotta Do H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide Gabby Barrett - I Hope Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions Doja Cat - Say So
Drop-Outs this week: None
Locked this week: Doja Cat & Tyga - Juicy
Currently lowest Locked song: Doja Cat & Tyga - Juicy
Might Lock next week: Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My
Predictions (Must reach 175.000 points after 10 weeks in the same position):
Added this week: Lil Uzi Vert - Baby Pluto Lil Uzi Vert - Lo Mein Lil Uzi Vert - Silly Watch Lil Uzi Vert - P2 Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 Jhene Aiko - P*$$y Fairy (OTW) Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo Lil Uzi Vert - That Way Megan Thee Stallion - B.I.T.C.H. Demi Lovato - I Love Me
Drop-outs: Sam Hunt - Kinfolks Bad Bunny - Vete Lil Baby & Gunna - Heatin Up YNW Melly - Suicidal
Direct Links in case the embed doesn't work: Current status: Predictions:
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Mar 18, 2020 8:07:38 GMT -5
Week 18 (March 21, 2020) *I'm continuing to tweak some of the songs' points for it to be more accurate
Locked this week: None Locked Locked next week Locked in two weeks Recurrent/Not Charting Top 10 this week
1. (=) Circles 5417 2. (=) The Box 5193 -Top 25- (5000) 3. (=) Memories 4473 4. (=) Someone You Loved 4314 5. (=) Roxanne 4097 -Top 30- (4000) 6. (=) Dance Monkey 3954 7. (=) 10,000 Hours 3726 8. (=) Good As Hell 3683 -Top 40- (3600) 9. (=) Lose You To Love Me 3543 10. (+2) Don't Start Now 3254 11. (-1) Ballin' 3198 12. (-1) Bop 3167 -Top 50- (3100) 13. (+2) Life Is Good 3034 14. (+2) Everything I Wanted 2965 15. (-1) No Guidance 2938 16. (-3) Senorita 2834 (#57) 17. (+2) Heartless 2741 18. (+2) Woah 2701 -Top 60- (2700) 19. (-2) Highest In The Room 2635 (#62) 20. (-2) Bad Guy 2604 (#63) 21. (+1) Hot Girl Bummer 2522 22. (+4) Blinding Lights 2421 23. (-2) Trampoline 2415 (#69) -Top 70- (2400) 24. (+1) The Bones 2394 25. (-2) Truth Hurts 2295 (#75) 26. (-2) One Man Band 2236 (#78) -Top 80- (2200) 27. (+1) Falling 2192 28. (+3) Adore You 2116 29. (-2) Bandit 2056 (#86) 30. (-1) Only Human 1998 (#88) 31. (-1) Hot 1970 (#89) -Top 90- (1950) 32. (+2) Yummy 1925 33. (-1) Panini 1918 (#92) 34. (+2) Juicy 1910 35. (-2) All I Want For Christmas Is You 1865 36. (-1) Even Though I'm Leaving 1807 (#100) -CUTOFF (1800)- 37. (+4) My Oh My 1742 38. (=) Heart On Ice 1742 39. (-2) Kinfolks 1702 40. (-1) I Don't Care 1619 41. (-1) Suicidal 1600 42. (+1) Homesick 1558 43. (+2) High Fashion 1533 44. (+2) Ritmo (Bad Boys For Life) 1504 45. (-3) Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1430 46. (-2) Ridin' Roads 1405 47. (+8) Godzilla 1392 48. (+6) Tusa 1353 49. (-2) Graveyard 1347 50. (-2) Sucker 1344 51. (-2) Lover 1338 52. (-2) Vibez 1317 53. (-2) Heartache Medication 1305 54. (-2) Old Town Road 1301 55. (+1) Vete 1162 56. (+4) You Should Be Sad 1262 57. (-4) On Chill 1259 58. (-1) We Back 1245 59. (=) Best On Earth 1243 60. (+1) Futsal Shuffle 2020 1230 61. (+6) Slide 115 62. (+6) Sum 2 Prove 1128 63. (-5) Ran$om 1127 64. (+6) I Hope 1121 65. (+7) What A Man Gotta Do 1102 66. (-4) Jingle Bell Rock 1095 67. (-4) Playing Games 1087 68. (-4) A Holly Jolly Christmas 1076 69. (+13) Say So 1070 70. (-5) Heat 1066 71. (-5) No Idea 1042 72. (-3) Camelot 1000 73. (+10) What She Wants Tonight 996 74. (-3) Make No Sense 993 75. (-2) Take What You Want 976 76. (+11) I Wish Grandpas Never Died 966 77. (+9) More Hearts Than Mine 965 78. (-4) What If I Never Get Over You 964 79. (-4) Out West 960 80. (-4) Easy 959 81. (+13) Intentions 959 82. (-5) Beautiful People 932 83. (-5) Start Wit Me 932 84. (-5) South Of The Border 924 85. (-5) Into The Unknown 918 86. (-5) Make Me Want To 902 87. (-3) tl;dr 887 88. (-3) Remember You Young 881 89. (+6) Nobody But You 877 90. (+6) I Hope You're Happy Now 845 91. (-3) Last Christmas 843 92. (-3) Talk 840 93. (-3) Leave Em Alone 830 94. (-3) Toes 827 95. (+5) Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 812 96. (-4) 223's 806 97. (-4) Homecoming Queen? 804 98. (+8) Pu$$y Fairy (OTW) 769 99. (+4) Sugar 762 100. (-3) Jerry Sprunger 727
Songs below #100 that are on the rise/over 100 points this week (excluding most album bomb songs)
106. (+12) Homemade 640 107. (+9) Chasin' You 637 113. (+12) Catch 576 119. (+11) Blueberry Faygo 536 121. () B.I.T.C.H. 517 127. (+16) Dior 479 130. (+15) Whats Poppin 456 136. (+18) Stupid Love 415 139. (+10) Go Stupid 405 150. (+47) That Way 325 152. (+21) Ignorantes 306 157. (+34) Heatin Up 284 158. (+43) Commercial 264 159. (+48) Si Veo A Tu Mama 260 160. (+49) La Dificil 260 162. (+44) Emotionally Scarred 256 164. (NEW) Baby Pluto 245 170. (+43) PTSD 232 175. (+54) The Other Side 216 179. (+41) La Santa 212 184. (NEW) Lo Mein 208 189. (NEW) Silly Watch 198 195. (NEW) P2 186 201. (NEW) I Love Me 176 208. (NEW) B.S. 165 239. (NEW) Happiness Over Everything (H.O.E.) 115 251. (NEW) Captain Hook 110 256. (NEW) Skybox 107 266. (NEW) Oprah's Bank Account 100
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Mar 18, 2020 8:08:48 GMT -5
^ Ok now why is the formatting like that? Is it because I copy-pasted it from Notepad? Lmao
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 18, 2020 10:04:12 GMT -5
^Sometimes lines are introduced when copy pasting. The issue is that Notepad doesn't show what the actual formatting is. What you see is not necessarily what you get.
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Post by Foxable on Mar 18, 2020 16:06:38 GMT -5
Where would One Man Band place on the year end if its chart run was all within a single year.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Mar 18, 2020 22:12:36 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 18 (March 21, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING: Circles (current position: 5, peak position: 1, weeks charting: 28) Someone You Loved (current position: 15, peak position: 1, weeks charting: 44) No Guidance (current position: 46, peak position: 5, weeks charting: 40)
OUT THIS WEEK: Senorita (peak position: 1, weeks charted: 37), bad guy (peak position: 1, weeks charted: 49)
ALL REPEATS: Circles Someone You Loved No Guidance Senorita bad guy Trampoline Truth Hurts Only Human Panini
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 19, 2020 9:59:15 GMT -5
Where would One Man Band place on the year end if its chart run was all within a single year. With its full chart run, One Man Band would have ~312.000 points, which would place it at around number 51 on last year's list.
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 19, 2020 14:43:30 GMT -5
Sorry for the double post, but starting next week, I'll be adding a new part to my predictions, mostly because I found it interesting to add to my spreadsheet and figured some of you might as well!
Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs: These will be the songs that are already locked and dropped out that week, and where they are predicted to land based on last year's year-end list. For now, I'll be giving the songs that have completed their runs and locked so far. Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Senorita (62) Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (68) Billie Eilish - bad guy (69) SHAED - Trampoline (73) Lizzo - Truth Hurts (77) Old Dominion - One Man Band (81) Juice WRLD ft. YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit (86) Jonas Brothers - Only Human (87) Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot (89) Lil Nas X - Panini (91) Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You (92) Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving (99)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 14:48:51 GMT -5
Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving (99) Well it wouldn't be the only great country song to end up at #99 on a Year-End list.
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 19, 2020 14:59:05 GMT -5
Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving (99) Well it wouldn't be the only great country song to end up at #99 on a Year-End list. I'd be lying if I didn't say I put Even Though I'm Leaving in the playlist despite it barely not counting for my rules (174.400 points out of 175.000 needed) purely out of wanting to see it on the year-end list. Though if other songs somehow manage to end up in similar positions I'll probably add them as well.
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Mar 19, 2020 18:53:01 GMT -5
I know this should probably go in a different thread but Colder Weather is one of the most annoying songs I’ve ever heard
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lights
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Post by lights on Mar 19, 2020 18:55:07 GMT -5
I know this should probably go in a different thread but Colder Weather is one of the most annoying songs I’ve ever heard Probably shouldn't be said in any thread.
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