wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 29, 2020 12:34:03 GMT -5
I feel like Intentions is pretty much for sure gonna be top 30, unless it just falls hard. The fact that it hasn’t really moved from the 7-11 range for a while makes it seem pretty safe. I could see it making top 20 tbh
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Apr 29, 2020 13:35:14 GMT -5
I feel like Intentions is pretty much for sure gonna be top 30, unless it just falls hard. The fact that it hasn’t really moved from the 7-11 range for a while makes it seem pretty safe. I could see it making top 20 tbh yes, but it could always be suddenly dropped from streaming and radio, so we never know
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 29, 2020 13:45:54 GMT -5
^Radio seems more likely to start dropping for it since its radio callouts for Top 40 format among current songs are second worse only to Stupid Love. Of course, some other radio formats can make up somewhat for whatever audience it starts to lose there. Streaming for it should be relatively steady with minor losses, in the short term, at least.
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 29, 2020 14:19:12 GMT -5
That’s fair. Either way I feel like it’s stable enough in other aspects so I could see it spending some time in 11-20 range
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Post by waluigionascooter on Apr 29, 2020 15:14:36 GMT -5
^Radio seems more likely to start dropping for it since its radio callouts for Top 40 format among current songs are second worse only to Stupid Love. Of course, some other radio formats can make up somewhat for whatever audience it starts to lose there. Streaming for it should be relatively steady with minor losses, in the short term, at least. Yeah that's why I only see it getting 20-24 weeks total, in that case it will definitely miss Top 25, possibly even Top 30
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Post by phillip12bluelov on Apr 29, 2020 21:59:58 GMT -5
That’s fair. Either way I feel like it’s stable enough in other aspects so I could see it spending some time in 11-20 range It's serious? Intentions isn't being loved by pop listeners? That's a bad News. The Song needs rádio help to be a consolided hit.
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 29, 2020 22:06:26 GMT -5
what
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 29, 2020 23:19:58 GMT -5
With such a weak cutoff, songs like Heartache Medication and What If I Never Get Over You were actually caught between years after all.
Songs Caught Between Years: 1) Lover 2) On Chill 3) Take What You Want 4) Graveyard 5) Playing Games 6) Heat 7) VIBEZ 8) Prayed For You 9) Camelot 10) 223s 11) Time 12) I Don't Know About You 13) Heartache Medication 14) What If I Never Get Over You That brings a total of at least 14 songs that were caught between 2019 and 2020. If Kinfolks misses, then that brings it up to 15 songs.
What If I Never Get Over You would not have made the 2019 year end, even with the low cutoff it had. Whether it would have passed 2020's cutoff remains to be seen, but for 2019 absolutely not
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2020 23:45:12 GMT -5
With such a weak cutoff, songs like Heartache Medication and What If I Never Get Over You were actually caught between years after all.
Songs Caught Between Years: 1) Lover 2) On Chill 3) Take What You Want 4) Graveyard 5) Playing Games 6) Heat 7) VIBEZ 8) Prayed For You 9) Camelot 10) 223s 11) Time 12) I Don't Know About You 13) Heartache Medication 14) What If I Never Get Over You That brings a total of at least 14 songs that were caught between 2019 and 2020. If Kinfolks misses, then that brings it up to 15 songs.
What If I Never Get Over You would not have made the 2019 year end, even with the low cutoff it had. Whether it would have passed 2020's cutoff remains to be seen, but for 2019 absolutely not Yeah I agree with you. However, due to current conditions, it might have been able to make 2020's year end list (I had it at around 1680 points).
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 30, 2020 1:02:17 GMT -5
What If I Never Get Over You would not have made the 2019 year end, even with the low cutoff it had. Whether it would have passed 2020's cutoff remains to be seen, but for 2019 absolutely not Yeah I agree with you. However, due to current conditions, it might have been able to make 2020's year end list (I had it at around 1680 points). We don’t know where the 2020 cutoff is yet is my point
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Apr 30, 2020 1:28:13 GMT -5
Guess I forgot to do this last week oop
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 24 (May 2, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING:
Post Malone - Circles (current: 6 [+1], peak: 1, weeks charting: 34) Weeks in top 10: 34 **NEW RECORD** Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved (current: 15 [-4], peak: 1, weeks charting: 50) Weeks in top 10: 27 Chris Brown & Drake - No Guidance (current: 48 [-8], peak: 5, weeks charting: 46) Weeks in top 10: 23
OUT THIS WEEK: None
ALL REPEATS: Post Malone - Circles Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved Chris Brown & Drake - No Guidance Shawn Mendes & Camilla Cabello - Senorita Billie Eilish - bad guy Shaed- Trampoline Lizzo - Truth Hurts Jonas Brothers - Only Human Lil Nas X - Panini
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lights
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Post by lights on Apr 30, 2020 5:57:50 GMT -5
I was intrigued by this idea going around that this year's cutoff is on track to be low so I knocked up this crude little graph. It shows the descents of 3 songs on my year-end predictions since they dropped out.
As you can see it predicts Juicy relatively comfortably making it, Even Though I'm Leaving making it at around 95 and Kinfolks just missing. Of course this is dependent on the rate of descent continuing to be the same, and if the weekly points drop off significantly that may change but I thought it was noteworthy anyway.
If the cutoff is approximately midway between Kinfolks (1629) and Even Though I'm Leaving (1761) that would make it very similar to last year's (~1693)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2020 12:25:28 GMT -5
More Hearts Than Mine seems to be tanking on radio even harder than Catch and Slow Dance In A Parking Lot were after they reached #1 on country radio (More Hearts Than Mine wasn't able to reach #1 in that format, as it was blocked at #3 by Nobody But You and Chasin' You). This is not a good sign for its run for the 2020 year end list. It will still reach 20 weeks, but at the current rate it's falling, I don't see it getting past that at all, which would definitely put the song in borderline hit or miss territory.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 30, 2020 13:21:03 GMT -5
I'm going to just give a short update for the people following my predictions - I'll be changing the format a bit going forward, seeing as how the spotify embeds aren't really working that well. I'll still be sharing the links, but I'll also start uploading an image with my own numbers for the predictions, which will be based on the people who calculate the chart points each week (like fhas and tanooki). I've already gone back and recalculated my numbers using this method, so I'll most likely make another update for this week in the new format with the new numbers. I've also decided to lower the point requirement for my predictions playlist to 165.000 points, because hey, more songs is never a bad thing, right?
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Apr 30, 2020 21:17:55 GMT -5
I can’t believe in the year of our lord 2020 a Black Eyed Peas song will make the YE
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 1, 2020 0:57:09 GMT -5
I was intrigued by this idea going around that this year's cutoff is on track to be low so I knocked up this crude little graph. It shows the descents of 3 songs on my year-end predictions since they dropped out. As you can see it predicts Juicy relatively comfortably making it, Even Though I'm Leaving making it at around 95 and Kinfolks just missing. Of course this is dependent on the rate of descent continuing to be the same, and if the weekly points drop off significantly that may change but I thought it was noteworthy anyway. If the cutoff is approximately midway between Kinfolks (1629) and Even Though I'm Leaving (1761) that would make it very similar to last year's (~1693) the possibility of Juicy being above 90 is so shocking to me, but now that I’ve taken it into consideration I do believe it probably will happen
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GP
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Post by GP on May 1, 2020 2:36:01 GMT -5
I can’t believe in the year of our lord 2020 a Black Eyed Peas song will make the YE The end of times
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on May 1, 2020 6:25:31 GMT -5
Week 24 - 05/02/2020Alright, as promised, here are my new predictions in the new format. I'm not quite sure what I should use as the "locked" cutoff, but I'll stick to 175.000 with a small margin for songs that are almost there (like You should be sad this week). As I said in my earlier post, I've gone back to the start of the year and looked at charts made by other contributors who calculate hot 100 points each week (thanks for your hard work, by the way!) and based my points of those. There will be an image at the bottom which will show my points and calculations. The first part of this post will mostly be a summary. Current Status (173.000 Points to be considered "Locked", 100.000 Points to be added to the playlist):Added this week:Drake - Toosie Slide Lady Gaga - Stupid Love Jhene Aiko - P*$$y Fairy (OTW) Jake Owen - Homemade Drop-Outs this week:None Currently lowest Locked song:Halsey - You should be sad Songs Locked this week:Gabby Barrett - I Hope Halsey - You should be sad Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:Karol G & Nicki Minaj - Tusa: Needs to survive the 20/50 rule Russ & BIA - BEST ON EARTH: Needs to survive the 20/50 rule H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide: Predicted to lock in 2 weeks Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove: Predicted to lock in 3 weeks Blake Shelton Duet With Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You: Predicted to lock in 2 weeks Ingrid Andress - More Hearts Than Mine: Predicted to lock in 4 weeks Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo: Predicted to lock in 4 weeks Morgan Wallen - Chasin' You: Predicted to lock in 5 weeks Drake - Toosie Slide: Predicted to lock in 2 weeks Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:See image for all recalculated drop-outs Justin Bieber - Yummy: #74 YNW Melly & Juice WRLD - Suicidal: #76 Predictions (Must reach 175.000 points after 10 weeks in the same position):
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 6:45:00 GMT -5
I can’t believe in the year of our lord 2020 a Black Eyed Peas song will make the YE The end E.N.D. of times
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 12:12:24 GMT -5
BEST ON EARTH will most likely not get a 21st week considering it's been dropping on radio for the past while now. However, I still expect it to make the 2020 year end list. It's projected #100 in my 2020 year end predictions (same as Kinfolks), but the cutoff could always get lower.
Tusa seems like it might drop out this week since it has stopped gaining on radio, however I don't fully understand what the qualifications are for allowing a song to bypass the recurrent rules so it could stay too. If Tusa drops out this week, its projected spot will be #98 for now.
You Should Be Sad should get at least another week or two before it finally drops out. It's currently #97 in my 2020 year end predictions, so it might be able to push for a top 90 finish (I see it finishing with around 1800-1900 points), especially with a potentially weaker cutoff.
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GP
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Post by GP on May 1, 2020 12:47:50 GMT -5
not you predicting Dua right at #11 :(
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atg
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Post by atg on May 1, 2020 15:05:24 GMT -5
not you predicting Dua right at #11 :( I doubt it will even be lower than #10. Wasn’t top 5 a guarantee for DSN?
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on May 1, 2020 15:15:50 GMT -5
not you predicting Dua right at #11 Honestly, I'd say you should ignore the predicted positions for everything except the songs that have already dropped out - as I can't predict how long songs will stay around, I just use 10 weeks as a general rule and base the predicted position on that result. Don't Start Now will most likely stick around for longer than that and I'm pretty sure it'll make the top 10. To be more accurate, at its current pace it will cross my predicted top 10 cutoff in 11 weeks and the top 5 cutoff in 14 weeks, so I'd say it's got a very good chance to end up in the top 10, maybe even top 5. Hell, to go a bit further on that, I've calculated how long it'll take for the biggest songs on that list to make the top 10, provided they continue at their current paces. I'll give a few notable songs and my thoughts: Guaranteed:Roddy Ricch - The Box: 2 more weeks until crossing the top 10 cutoff. Post Malone - Circles: 6 more weeks. The Weeknd - Blinding Lights: 9 more weeks. Incredibly likely:Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now: 11 more weeks. A decent chance:Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good: 17 more weeks Small chance:Billie Eilish - everything i wanted: 20 more weeks Harry Styles - Adore You: 21 more weeks Maroon 5, I wouldn't be surprised if this just made it on pure radio inertia:Maroon 5 - Memories: 17 more weeks Achievement unlocked: survive the 52 week rule for 13 goddamn weeks:Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved: 15 more weeks, 2 weeks away of the 52 week rule Too early to tell:Doja Cat - Say So: 23 more weeks Justin Bieber ft. Quova - Intentions: 27 more weeks Drake - Toosie Slide: 22 more weeks
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Post by nathanalbright on May 1, 2020 15:50:13 GMT -5
Imagine the misery on this board and in the ears of listeners if SYL beats recurrency for three months.
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GP
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Post by GP on May 1, 2020 16:14:42 GMT -5
Imagine if Memories makes the top10, yikes 2020 would lose even more.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 1, 2020 18:15:41 GMT -5
So, recently I realised the formula I used to predict positions on the year-end list was kind of off (in that songs that were predicted to make the year-end list were predicted at positions like 102 simply because of how my tiebreaker formula did its thing). After a while figuring out how to fix this, I've decided to also share with all of you my new predicted positions with a (slightly more generous than I use for my playlists) cutoff of 165.000 points of all the songs that have dropped out so far. #37: Selena Gomez - Lose You To Love Me #39: Lizzo - Good As Hell #54: Lil Baby - Woah #59: Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Senorita #62: Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM #65: Billie Eilish - bad guy #66: SHAED - Trampoline #71: Lizzo - Truth Hurts #72: Justin Bieber - Yummy #73: Old Dominion - One Man Band #77: YNW Melly & Juice WRLD - Suicidal #80: Juice WRLD ft. YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit #82: Jonas Brothers - Only Human #84: Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot #85: Kane Brown - Homesick #86: Lil Nas X - Panini #89: Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You #91: Doja Cat & Tyga - Juicy #95: Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving #100: Sam Hunt - Kinfolks Should they be gone next week, this list will have Tusa at #97 and BEST ON EARTH at #99. BEST ON EARTH at #99 and Kinfolks at #100 is a nightmare scenario
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 1, 2020 20:45:32 GMT -5
Given that we are about to be bombarded left and right for the next few months by songs from Drake's albums as well as a few more songs featuring him, I wonder how many of those would actually end up making this year's end.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on May 2, 2020 4:41:57 GMT -5
Based on a few comments made so far, I realised I have been lowballing the weeks left a bit for some songs. Therefore, from next week on, the weeks left will also be based on a song's current position on the hot 100: - Songs in the top 20 will get 15 weeks added rather than only 10. - Songs in the top 40 will depend on their amount of Weeks on the Chart (WoC): 10 weeks if they've charted for 10 weeks or more, 15 weeks if they've charted for 5 weeks or less, 20-WoC charted for the rest. - Any songs between the top 40 and top 50 will also depend on their amount of Weeks on the Chart: 5 weeks if they've charted for 20 weeks or more, 10 weeks if they've charted for 5 weeks or less, 20-WoC for the rest. - Any songs below the top 50 will get 20-WoC added, with songs that have charted for 20 weeks or longer (hello Tusa) just getting 0 weeks added. - Finally, any songs charting for more than 42 weeks will get 52-WoC added, as songs that break the 52/25 rule are pretty rare.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on May 2, 2020 4:48:16 GMT -5
Imagine the misery on this board and in the ears of listeners if SYL beats recurrency for three months. Radioactive in the distance keeping a lookout like
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on May 2, 2020 6:21:30 GMT -5
Imagine the misery on this board and in the ears of listeners if SYL beats recurrency for three months. Radioactive in the distance keeping a lookout like Someone You Loved coming anywhere close to Radioactive's 87 weeks will probably cause a massive collective aneurysm across Pulse lmao
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