Predict Where Songs Will Peak

[Wackadoodle]

This thread is for people to make predictions and then come back and evaluate how accurate their predictions were. I'll be sharing mine in this post shortly, but I have a few to get us started:

A few easy ones:

• "One Man Band" will get two weeks at #1
• "Remember You Young" will get one week at #1.
• "What If I Never Get Over You" will shock us all and snag the Billboard #1 the week of 12/22
• "Ridin' Roads" will get two weeks
• "We Were" will find its peak at #3 some week in December
• "Tip of My Tongue" will max after the holidays and finish at #3, just like Keith (no shame in that)
• :10,000 Hours" will get two weeks at #1
• "Kinfolks" will get a week
• "We Back" will touch the top 10 and then drop like a rock, maybe peaking at #10
• "Make Me Want To" will pull off a marathon chart run and climb all the way into the top 5, peaking at #3
  
• "Dive Bar" won't get much higher than it's already gotten, peaking at its current peak of #15
• "Homesick" is clearly a #1, probably a two-weeker
• "What She Wants Tonight" will slow down and not impress listeners much, but manage its way to #1 anyway
• "Hell Right" will slog its way into the top 10, peaking at #6 due to bad callout
• "More Hearts Than Mine" will sneak in a Mediabase-only #1 in a big push to get a female at #1, peaking at #3 on the Billboard chart
• "The Bones" will become a big hit and get a solid week at #1
• "Slow Dance in a Parking Lot" will go the distance
• "Catch" will "catch" a break and get an easy #1
• "Homecoming Queen?" will struggle in the teens and miss the top 10, peaking at #15

And a few ones that are harder 

• "To A T" will scrape the top 20 and then time out, peaking at #18
• "Homemade" will pull off the marathon run to #1
• "I Wish Grandpas Never Died" will become a massive hit, but be used to re-distribute some political capital with radio to other label mates, resulting in it spending "only" one week at #1
• "After a Few" will peak at #24
• "In Between" will peak at #26
• "Every Girl in This Town" will never come anywhere near its original debut/peak position of #21
• "One Big Country Song" will go to #1
• "Her World or Mine" will stall out at #25
• "I Hope" will steadily climb into the top 15, peaking at #13
• "Family Tree" will continue to fail to connect, peaking at #30 with the vast power and resources of UMG Nashville
• "Monsters" will be a steady-climbing #1 on Mediabase, but peak at #2 on Billboard
• "Blessings" will take too long and be pulled early, peaking at #32
• "Chasin' You" will be another #1
• "Hold On" will obviously fail to match its original/debut position of #30, as country listeners aren't sold on a copy of old material
• "Drowning" will find its way to #1, ironically considering the title
• "Lonely If You Are" will slog its way to #5 despite low consumer interest simply due to no listener pushback
• "Drinking Alone" will stall out in the teens, peaking at #14
• "Details" will be a sleeper hit and finish at #2
• "Front Seat" will climb into the top 40 based on Entercom support, but fail to gain real traction with listeners and peak at #39
• "Die from a Broken Heart" will find its way, with all  Magic Mike's money and resources, into the top 30, finishing with a #26 peak
• "Why We Drink" will take off and be a #3
• "Break It In" will take the long way around and be a #1
• "The Weight of the Badge," a desperate attempt at career revival by a guy who pretend he was riding out into the sunset years ago, will fight its way up the chart to obtain a peak position in the 40s, finishing at #44
• "Thank God for You" will fail to impress anyone but continue to exist for another year until it reaches a peak of #20
• "Now You Know" will buy a top 30 peak since it's only Langston's second single with the label, peaking at #29
• "She's Mine" will do something awesome and marathon its way into the top 20, ending up at #17
• ":I Do for You" will fail to impress anyone but hang around long enough to obtain a peak position in the 40s, maybe #46
• "Getting Good" will climb as high as it can, but that won't be very high as it hits a ceiling at #50
• "Big, Big Plans" flops for Chris, falling victim to the recurrent airplay syndrome of his last single, and peaks at #32, with the label moving on quickly
  
• "I Really Shouldn't Drink About You" will fail to gain traction, peaking at #47
• "Nothin' on You" will push its way to a peak of #36
• "Chasin' Me" will not match its current peak of #54
• "One Night Standards" will end up at #42  due to chart housecleaning and the weakness of Warner's promo team
• "Head Over Heels" will disappoint, unfortunately, and only make it to #33
• "I'll Be the One" will slowly build support and grow on listeners, climbing its way all the way to #3
• "Jersey on the Wall" will build its tiny fan base, but peak at #58
• "I Don't Love You" will peak at #55, unfortunately, as Lindsay Ell is viewed as a perennial by this point
• "Hail Mary" will never take off, making it to #51

"

[.indulgecountry]

Nov 27, 2019 0:18:44 GMT -5 Wackadoodle said:

• "One Night Standards" will end up at #52  due to chart housecleaning and the weakness of Warner's promo team

This one was already wrong when you made the prediction.

[raylatch98]

Here I have it a bit more simple, (artists are in order from the September 2018 Peak edition

[] "Dive Bar" - Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton
[] "Make Me Want To" - Jimmie Allen
[] "Tip Of My Tongue" - Kenny Chesney 
[] "What I See" - LANCO
[] "Details" - Billy Currington
[] "Head Over Heels" - Runaway June
[] "Thank God For You" - Rodney Atkins
[] "I Don't Love You" - Lindsay Ell
[] "After A Few" - Travis Denning
[] "Diamonds" - Morgan Evans
[] "Monsters" - Eric Church
[] "Homemade" - Jake Owen
[] "Done" - Chris Janson
[] "Anything She Says" - Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth
[] "Lonely If You Are" - Chase Rice
[] "One Big Country Song" - LoCash
[] "Die From A Broken Heart" - Maddie & Tae
[] "We Back" - Jason Aldean
[] "Ridin Roads" - Dustin Lynch
[] "Drowning" - Chris Young
[] "Catch" - Brett Young
[] "I Hope You're Happy Now" - Carly Pearce & Lee Brice
[] "Big, Big Plans" - Chris Lane
[] "She's Mine" - Kip Moore
[] "Homesick" - Kane Brown
[] "Break It In" - Eli Young Band
[] "Drinking Alone" - Carrie Underwood
[] "Homecoming Queen" - Kelsea Ballerini
[] "We Were" - Keith Urban
[] "Heartache Medication" - Jon Pardi
[] "Nothin' on You" - Cody Johnson
[] "Her World Or Mine" - Michael Ray
[] "One Night Standards" - Ashley McBryde
[] "The Bones" - Maren Morris
[] "Blessings" - Florida Georgia Line
[] "Remember You Young" - Thomas Rhett
[] "Jersey On The Wall" - Tenille Townes
[] "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber
[] "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot" - Jordan Davis
[] "I Wish Grandpas Never Died" - Riley Green
[] "In Between" - Scotty McCreery
[] "Hell Right" - Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins
[] "Now You Know" - Jon Langston
[] "Chasin' You" - Morgan Wallen
[] "That's Why I Love Dirt Roads" - Granger Smith
[] "What If I Never Get Over You" - Lady Antebellum
[] "Kinfolks" - Sam Hunt
[] "What She Wants Tonight" - Luke Bryan
[] "More Hearts Than Mine" - Ingrid Andress
[] "To A T" - Ryan Hurd"
[] "Every Girl In This Town" - Trisha Yearwood
[] "I Hope" - Gabby Barrett 
[] "Family Tree" - Caylee Hammack
[] "What Could've Been" - Gone West
[] "Hold On" - Hootie & The Blowfish
[] "Front Seat" - Rayne Johnson
[] "Why We Drink" - Justin Moore
[] "I Do For You" - Dillon Carmichael
[] "The Weight Of The Badge" - George Strait
[] "Chasin' Me" - Caroline Jones
[] "Getting Good" - Lauren Alaina
[] "Masterpiece" - Thompson Square
[] "Really Shouldn't Be Drinking Around You" - Teddy Robb
[] "Over Drinking" - Little Big Town
[] "I'll Be The One" - Noah Schnacky 

So if anyone wants to just outright predict the peaks here is a much more simple version to do it.

[raylatch98]

Also for anyone who is interested here are my peak predictions with Billboard


[13] "Dive Bar" - Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton
[11] "Make Me Want To" - Jimmie Allen
[6] "Tip Of My Tongue" - Kenny Chesney
[15] "What I See" - LANCO
[20] "Details" - Billy Currington
[4] "Head Over Heels" - Runaway June
[35] "Thank God For You" - Rodney Atkins
[42] "I Don't Love You" - Lindsay Ell
[23] "After A Few" - Travis Denning
[45] "Diamonds" - Morgan Evans
[2] "Monsters" - Eric Church
[1] "Homemade" - Jake Owen
[3] "Done" - Chris Janson
[48] "Anything She Says" - Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth
[1] "Lonely If You Are" - Chase Rice
[18] "One Big Country Song" - LoCash
[32] "Die From A Broken Heart" - Maddie & Tae
[10] "We Back" - Jason Aldean
[1] "Ridin Roads" - Dustin Lynch
[1] "Drowning" - Chris Young
[3] "Catch" - Brett Young
[1] "I Hope You're Happy Now" - Carly Pearce & Lee Brice
[5] "Big, Big Plans" - Chris Lane
[23] "She's Mine" - Kip Moore
[1] "Homesick" - Kane Brown
[41] "Break It In" - Eli Young Band
[7] "Drinking Alone" - Carrie Underwood
[2] "Homecoming Queen" - Kelsea Ballerini
[3] "We Were" - Keith Urban
[1] "Heartache Medication" - Jon Pardi
[51] "Nothin' on You" - Cody Johnson
[4] "Her World Or Mine" - Michael Ray
[25] "One Night Standards" - Ashley McBryde
[1] "The Bones" - Maren Morris
[18] "Blessings" - Florida Georgia Line
[1] "Remember You Young" - Thomas Rhett
[59] "Jersey On The Wall" - Tenille Townes
[1] "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber
[1] "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot" - Jordan Davis
[1] "I Wish Grandpas Never Died" - Riley Green
[20] "In Between" - Scotty McCreery
[8] "Hell Right" - Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins
[30] "Now You Know" - Jon Langston
[1] "Chasin' You" - Morgan Wallen
[35] "That's Why I Love Dirt Roads" - Granger Smith
[1] "What If I Never Get Over You" - Lady Antebellum
[1] "Kinfolks" - Sam Hunt
[1] "What She Wants Tonight" - Luke Bryan
[1] "More Hearts Than Mine" - Ingrid Andress
[20] "To A T" - Ryan Hurd"
[21] "Every Girl In This Town" - Trisha Yearwood
[1] "I Hope" - Gabby Barrett
[25] "Family Tree" - Caylee Hammack
[18] "What Could've Been" - Gone West
[28] "Hold On" - Hootie & The Blowfish
[32] "Front Seat" - Rayne Johnson
[3] "Why We Drink" - Justin Moore
[41] "I Do For You" - Dillon Carmichael
[51] "The Weight Of The Badge" - George Strait
[53] "Chasin' Me" - Caroline Jones
[10] "Getting Good" - Lauren Alaina
[55] "Masterpiece" - Thompson Square
[42] "Really Shouldn't Be Drinking Around You" - Teddy Robb
[53] "Over Drinking" - Little Big Town
[42] "I'll Be The One" - Noah Schnacky

[Wackadoodle]

Nov 27, 2019 23:35:02 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

Nov 27, 2019 0:18:44 GMT -5 Wackadoodle said:

• "One Night Standards" will end up at #52  due to chart housecleaning and the weakness of Warner's promo team

This one was already wrong when you made the prediction.

I meant 42. Thank you, Grim Reaper, for the correction. Please don't take me under. I'm not ready quite yet. I have some scores to settle first.

[.indulgecountry]

Nov 28, 2019 0:26:17 GMT -5 Wackadoodle said:

Nov 27, 2019 23:35:02 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

This one was already wrong when you made the prediction.

I meant 42. Thank you, Grim Reaper, for the correction. Please don't take me under. I'm not ready quite yet. I have some scores to settle first.

Please don't include me in whatever fantasy role play shtick it is that you're on. I didn't sign up for any of that.

[.indulgecountry]

raylatch98 thanks for making it a format we can copy-paste.

[15] "Dive Bar" - Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton
[11] "Make Me Want To" - Jimmie Allen
[6] "Tip Of My Tongue" - Kenny Chesney
[1] "What I See" - LANCO
[22] "Details" - Billy Currington
[15] "Head Over Heels" - Runaway June
[33] "Thank God For You" - Rodney Atkins
[36] "I Don't Love You" - Lindsay Ell
[23] "After A Few" - Travis Denning
[19] "Diamonds" - Morgan Evans
[2] "Monsters" - Eric Church
[1] "Homemade" - Jake Owen
[1] "Done" - Chris Janson
[29] "Anything She Says" - Mitchell Tenpenny featuring Seaforth
[5] "Lonely If You Are" - Chase Rice
[21] "One Big Country Song" - LoCash
[27] "Die From A Broken Heart" - Maddie & Tae
[5] "We Back" - Jason Aldean
[1] "Ridin Roads" - Dustin Lynch
[1] "Drowning" - Chris Young
[1] "Catch" - Brett Young
[1] "I Hope You're Happy Now" - Carly Pearce & Lee Brice
[1] "Big, Big Plans" - Chris Lane
[20] "She's Mine" - Kip Moore
[1] "Homesick" - Kane Brown
[32] "Break It In" - Eli Young Band
[1] "Drinking Alone" - Carrie Underwood
[1] "Homecoming Queen" - Kelsea Ballerini
[3] "We Were" - Keith Urban
[1] "Heartache Medication" - Jon Pardi
[26] "Nothin' on You" - Cody Johnson
[1] "Her World Or Mine" - Michael Ray
[25] "One Night Standards" - Ashley McBryde
[1] "The Bones" - Maren Morris
[14] "Blessings" - Florida Georgia Line
[1] "Remember You Young" - Thomas Rhett
[X] "Jersey On The Wall" - Tenille Townes
[1] "10,000 Hours" - Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber
[1] "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot" - Jordan Davis
[1] "I Wish Grandpas Never Died" - Riley Green
[16] "In Between" - Scotty McCreery
[8] "Hell Right" - Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins
[45] "Now You Know" - Jon Langston
[1] "Chasin' You" - Morgan Wallen
[17] "That's Why I Love Dirt Roads" - Granger Smith
[1] "What If I Never Get Over You" - Lady Antebellum
[1] "Kinfolks" - Sam Hunt
[1] "What She Wants Tonight" - Luke Bryan
[1] "More Hearts Than Mine" - Ingrid Andress
[13] "To A T" - Ryan Hurd"
[21] "Every Girl In This Town" - Trisha Yearwood
[4] "I Hope" - Gabby Barrett
[23] "Family Tree" - Caylee Hammack
[16] "What Could've Been" - Gone West
[30] "Hold On" - Hootie & The Blowfish
[38] "Front Seat" - Rayne Johnson
[1] "Why We Drink" - Justin Moore
[42] "I Do For You" - Dillon Carmichael
[50] "The Weight Of The Badge" - George Strait
[52] "Chasin' Me" - Caroline Jones
[18] "Getting Good" - Lauren Alaina
[57] "Masterpiece" - Thompson Square
[48] "Really Shouldn't Be Drinking Around You" - Teddy Robb
[45] "Over Drinking" - Little Big Town
[36] "I'll Be The One" - Noah Schnacky