Billboard Hot 100: 12/28/2019

[Deleted]

First thing I see upon clicking this thread is that accursed baby shark thing so ima just dip the fuck outta here

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Yeah, it isn't dead ...

[tuna]

The Billboard charts are designed for the industry and to look pretty in a magazine. The logic that they shouldn't adjust themselves to stay "fresh" is dumb.

I use Billboard to see what artists are Hot in the world right now, and to see how music trends are morphing and evolving. These same Christmas songs have dominated the public consciousness for 50 years and haven't changed a single bit in those 50 years.

And it pisses me off since they're all about a Christian holiday.

[Au$tin]

Christmas is a pagan cultural holiday at this point. Jesus has long since been removed. None of the popular Christmas songs charting are even religious.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

That's why most Holiday songs probably don't chart in the Gospel and Christian genre charts.

[tuna]

^ and ^^
idk it still rubs me the wrong way, especially on the songs that are all about Christmas rather than Christmas just being vaguely hinted at like in It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year (my favorite Christmas song) or used as a random mention like in AIWFCIY

I get that there aren't really any good songs about any other Abrahamic religions but yknow

And I don't mind a few Christmas songs popping up in the top 10 but when they take up like half of the top 50 and probably will for the rest of time I get annoyed

[badrobot]

Maybe I'll just keep posting this in every Hot 100 thread until it actually happens.

There should be 2 major song charts:

Hot 100 - all recurrency rules removed, everything charts if it has the points to do so. (Really this should just be the "Top 100" but I understand they'd want to keep the brand name)

Fresh 100 - only new songs can chart (no holiday songs), songs are removed after they've spent 2 consecutive weeks without gains in any metric (or 4 weeks without any overall point increase). They can only re-enter if they are a non-holiday song and their point total exceeds their previous peak (to handle cases like "Good as Hell" or even "Macarena" back in the day).

I think the longevity records on the Fresh 100 would be really interesting, because what you'd really be measuring is sustained growth rather than how long something sticks around after it's peaked.

[atg]

If the christmas music pushes someone you loved faster out of the top 10, then that’s a good thing

[Enigma.]

Indeed, it's actually FRESH to see the Xmas songs there as only the fittest will survive these 3 weeks every year.

This week we got rid of Talk and I Don't Care, songs that shouldn't be in top 40/50 in any case at this point.

So far, only song that has been blocked from reaching top ten is Bop.

[Lukas]

Dec 18, 2019 23:12:54 GMT -5 degen said:

Dec 18, 2019 19:02:49 GMT -5 Lukas said:

You're seriously calling this "clearly the weakest time of the year"? This is probably the first winter in forever where the charts were this weak.

Last year, AIWFCIY had more points than it just did this past week during the Christmas week, but it had to compete against Thank u next and Without Me.

And the year before, you had Rockstar and Perfect tallying about 45k+ points. The year before that? Closer and Black Beatles with even more points. And before that, Hello and Sorry with 60k+ points.

The point is, you can't just generalize a song's chart run and say "oh the song's chart run is obviously better than its actual real point performances" when it is charting in multiple eras and only one of them is a weak era. Nor can you assume that just because this is the weakest time of the year one year means that it is the case for every other year.

Thanks for the insight! So If this is in fact a “weak” year and Xmas songs are charting higher because of it, what makes everyone assume in coming years Xmas songs will peak this high with those point totals? That is of course, if those point totals are maintained. We really don’t know. I still argue that the inverse point system should be done away with.

As people have stated before, no one knows exactly what will happen in the coming 5-10 years. Whether or not Xmas songs will continue to peak high with even bigger point totals is a topic for coming years, not this one.

And why should the inverse points system be done away with? It's literally the only thing we have to accurately measure how well songs did a long time ago. Unless you want to pay thousands of dollars to Billboard just to see their actual weekly numbers (this is actually a thing), you're really not going to be able to tell exactly how strong of a #1 songs like "Physical," "You Light Up My Life," "Hey Jude", or other songs from way back then would do under a real points system (based off of many 2010's real points system lists, "We Found Love" and "Girls Like You" wouldn't even be on the all-time list, but "Radioactive" would shoot to inside the top 50). But they had the strongest chart runs, and that's a thing that anyone can see, compare, and analyze, and that's why they're listed as the biggest hits of the 80's and the 70's. I can guarantee that, in 10-20 years, unless one looked at the year-end list, they probably wouldn't think that Harlem Shake would be one of the top 100 songs of the decade, given how fast it dropped after it left after a mere 8 weeks inside the top 10. Conversely, because of Girls Like You's massive chart run, unless people looked in a chart forum and saw its weekly point totals (which no one except for a few chart nerds would actively search for that) people 20-30 years from now would believe that it is one of the 100 biggest hits of all time. Now, is the inverse points system the best system? And is it the most fair process? Well, not necessarily. But when you want your chart to hold up well over decades, it's clear that it needs to happen.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2019 11:25:34 GMT -5 tuna said:

The Billboard charts are designed for the industry and to look pretty in a magazine. The logic that they shouldn't adjust themselves to stay "fresh" is dumb.

I use Billboard to see what artists are Hot in the world right now, and to see how music trends are morphing and evolving. These same Christmas songs have dominated the public consciousness for 50 years and haven't changed a single bit in those 50 years.

And it pisses me off since they're all about a Christian holiday.

You can speak ill of the gospels like “All I Want For Christmas Is You” all you want. That is your right.. but it will all be between God and you on judgment day! Choose wisely.

[chanman]

Dec 19, 2019 12:35:25 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Indeed, it's actually FRESH to see the Xmas songs there as only the fittest will survive these 3 weeks every year.

This week we got rid of Talk and I Don't Care, songs that shouldn't be in top 40/50 in any case at this point.

So far, only song that has been blocked from reaching top ten is Bop.

Both Blinding Lights and BOP (#11 and #12) were blocked from Christmas Songs in the week of Heartless at No.1.

[atg]

Dec 19, 2019 12:45:39 GMT -5 chanman said:

Dec 19, 2019 12:35:25 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Indeed, it's actually FRESH to see the Xmas songs there as only the fittest will survive these 3 weeks every year.

This week we got rid of Talk and I Don't Care, songs that shouldn't be in top 40/50 in any case at this point.

So far, only song that has been blocked from reaching top ten is Bop.

Both Blinding Lights and BOP (#11 and #12) were blocked from Christmas Songs in the week of Heartless at No.1.

On that topic i’m so happy abel got another #1 it never seemed believable ever since 2016-17 but it ofc was possible. He technically got ‘another one’ with blinding lights as well because it was so good it needed an extra number (11) 😭

[tuna]

Dec 19, 2019 12:05:40 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Maybe I'll just keep posting this in every Hot 100 thread until it actually happens.

There should be 2 major song charts:

Hot 100 - all recurrency rules removed, everything charts if it has the points to do so. (Really this should just be the "Top 100" but I understand they'd want to keep the brand name)

Fresh 100 - only new songs can chart (no holiday songs), songs are removed after they've spent 2 consecutive weeks without gains in any metric (or 4 weeks without any overall point increase). They can only re-enter if they are a non-holiday song and their point total exceeds their previous peak (to handle cases like "Good as Hell" or even "Macarena" back in the day).

I think the longevity records on the Fresh 100 would be really interesting, because what you'd really be measuring is sustained growth rather than how long something sticks around after it's peaked.

I think Top 100 as a 100% objective and unedited chart for chart nerds would be good. Just call the Fresh 100 the Hot 100

Only problem I could see is that it would be almost entirely debuts and album bombs. Maybe it could use a decaying points system like I suggested in the 12/21 thread, only in a shorter time-frame.

Using this example, Someone You Loved at around 23,000 predicted points would have its points multiplied by 0.7 (lower it by 0.1 every 10 weeks) and it would have 16000 points, enough for it to be down to the bottom of the top 20 at most.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 19, 2019 12:00:44 GMT -5 tuna said:

or used as a random mention like in AIWFCIY

Um, what? The entire song lists things related to Christmas. There is nothing random about the mention lol.

[moonlite]

Dec 19, 2019 13:23:28 GMT -5 tuna said:

Dec 19, 2019 12:05:40 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Maybe I'll just keep posting this in every Hot 100 thread until it actually happens.

There should be 2 major song charts:

Hot 100 - all recurrency rules removed, everything charts if it has the points to do so. (Really this should just be the "Top 100" but I understand they'd want to keep the brand name)

Fresh 100 - only new songs can chart (no holiday songs), songs are removed after they've spent 2 consecutive weeks without gains in any metric (or 4 weeks without any overall point increase). They can only re-enter if they are a non-holiday song and their point total exceeds their previous peak (to handle cases like "Good as Hell" or even "Macarena" back in the day).

I think the longevity records on the Fresh 100 would be really interesting, because what you'd really be measuring is sustained growth rather than how long something sticks around after it's peaked.

I think Top 100 as a 100% objective and unedited chart for chart nerds would be good. Just call the Fresh 100 the Hot 100

This. They should make a Top 100 chart for the chart purists on Pulse and keep the H100 the way it is now and keep it as the main chart. Win win situation. :) the end

[tuna]

Dec 19, 2019 13:28:14 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 19, 2019 12:00:44 GMT -5 tuna said:

or used as a random mention like in AIWFCIY

Um, what? The entire song lists things related to Christmas. There is nothing random about the mention lol.

Yeah, lists. You could mad-libs it out and turn it into something completely different 

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2019 13:31:24 GMT -5 tuna said:

Dec 19, 2019 13:28:14 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Um, what? The entire song lists things related to Christmas. There is nothing random about the mention lol.

Yeah, lists. You could mad-libs it out and turn it into something completely different 

Good point. Yes and if you swap out the lyrics in “My Neck My Back” it could be a church hymn.

[anorable]

It's a tough decision between accurate but placid and exciting but erroneous. Do we want a more accurate chart that features songs sticking around for Radioactive-level lengths and old Christmas tunes reentering every December, or a chart with more movement at the expense of being any sort of real view of what's popular. Different strokes for different folks in this case, I have no idea what I'd rather have myself.

[JukeboxJacob]

Or we can go with badrobot’s idea and have both!

[badrobot]

Dec 19, 2019 13:23:28 GMT -5 tuna said:

Dec 19, 2019 12:05:40 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Maybe I'll just keep posting this in every Hot 100 thread until it actually happens.

There should be 2 major song charts:

Hot 100 - all recurrency rules removed, everything charts if it has the points to do so. (Really this should just be the "Top 100" but I understand they'd want to keep the brand name)

Fresh 100 - only new songs can chart (no holiday songs), songs are removed after they've spent 2 consecutive weeks without gains in any metric (or 4 weeks without any overall point increase). They can only re-enter if they are a non-holiday song and their point total exceeds their previous peak (to handle cases like "Good as Hell" or even "Macarena" back in the day).

I think the longevity records on the Fresh 100 would be really interesting, because what you'd really be measuring is sustained growth rather than how long something sticks around after it's peaked.

I think Top 100 as a 100% objective and unedited chart for chart nerds would be good. Just call the Fresh 100 the Hot 100

Only problem I could see is that it would be almost entirely debuts and album bombs. Maybe it could use a decaying points system like I suggested in the 12/21 thread, only in a shorter time-frame.

Using this example, Someone You Loved at around 23,000 predicted points would have its points multiplied by 0.7 (lower it by 0.1 every 10 weeks) and it would have 16000 points, enough for it to be down to the bottom of the top 20 at most.

I'd recommend the Fresh 100 increase the weight of airplay to mitigate the album bomb effect a little bit. That also tends to be the slowest-growing format so an increased weight would better reflect if a song is still gaining traction even if streaming/sales are initially steady after a big debut.

[Choco]

I don't think there's a perfect solution. Maybe they will weigh down streams for holiday songs? I'd be fine with them doing that. Especially since it's probably gonna be AIWFCIY every year again at #1.

But completely removing them? Feels a bit too UK singles chart for my taste.

[moonlite]

^ Isn't weighing down streams of certain songs what they do on the UK chart as well? Nah, either keep the songs or remove them, but playing with the numbers aint it

[jayhawk1117]

The reason Christmas songs are dominating is because the charts are absurdly week. Circles is barely breaking 300 points and the rest of the charts are lacking. If next December is even 15% stronger pointwise then I doubt we see 4 plus Christmas songs in the top 15

[Lukas]

Manipulating numbers is probably the worst way to go on this, because you're basing it entirely on subjective opinion rather than facts.

[Lukas]

Dec 19, 2019 17:04:09 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

The reason Christmas songs are dominating is because the charts are absurdly week. Circles is barely breaking 300 points and the rest of the charts are lacking. If next December is even 15% stronger pointwise then I doubt we see 4 plus Christmas songs in the top 15

Nah, we probably still will see many Christmas songs in the top 15. Pointswise, songs at #2 are currently lower than 30K points, but the #10 song currently has around 22.5K points, which is around average across all of the eras.

[sirskimask]

Dec 19, 2019 8:05:04 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

early preds woo

80. Take What You Want (-13)

Post needs to promote Take What You Want asap, it's getting dangerously close to dropping off the charts

[kcdawg13]

Dec 19, 2019 17:37:52 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Dec 19, 2019 8:05:04 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

early preds woo

80. Take What You Want (-13)

Post needs to promote Take What You Want asap, it's getting dangerously close to dropping off the charts

I don't see it popping off, Circles is still gaining and the next best bet for a hit single would be Enemies. I can see it being a huge pop hit.

[moonlite]

Take What You Want isn’t happening. Let it go Post Malone fans

[owenlovesmusic]

drop TWYW and promote Enemies instead!