Billboard Hot 100: 1/4/2020

[Choco]

OTR hanging on at #40ish for another month doesn't change the narrative for it much.

I'm excited to see a few new tracks enter. Between hits going recurrent and the Xmas songs dying it's gonna be an interesting chart.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Dec 28, 2019 1:05:56 GMT -5 weirdo said:

Dec 28, 2019 1:02:31 GMT -5 tanooki said:

would be #51 without recurrent rules lol

Old Town Road PLEASE hold on at #50. If RITMO is the one to hit #50 and not a record-breaking superhit i will be very mad

OTR was #1 for 19 weeks, it's time for other songs to shine.

[insen_13]

Dec 28, 2019 19:22:41 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Dec 28, 2019 1:05:56 GMT -5 weirdo said:

Old Town Road PLEASE hold on at #50. If RITMO is the one to hit #50 and not a record-breaking superhit i will be very mad

OTR was #1 for 19 weeks, it's time for other songs to shine.

I agree. It's dominance in 2019, I think, will never be forgotten though.

[renfield75]

Dec 28, 2019 20:03:04 GMT -5 insen_13 said:

Dec 28, 2019 19:22:41 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

OTR was #1 for 19 weeks, it's time for other songs to shine.

I agree. It's dominance in 2019, I think, will never be forgotten though.

2019 really was the year of 19...OTR got 19 record-breaking weeks at number one and Mariah got her 19th #1 single.

[tanooki]

now that YouTube is out, final predictions

[Enigma.]

About time to get rid of Only Human (it was airplay-only hit anyway), Ransom and OTR to some extent although that can still return.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

[jenglisbe]

Dec 28, 2019 12:35:03 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

I just will never understand how Santa tell me never re-enters but other Christmas songs with lower streams always do..

Do they have lower streams overall, or just on Spotify? Regardless, does this mean you don't look at airplay or sales stats?

[Deleted]

Dec 29, 2019 0:43:19 GMT -5 tanooki said:

now that YouTube is out, final predictions

I think One Man Band will be on its 18th week during the Christmas onslaught so I don't think it will go recurrent. Apart from that, great job! :)

[kimberly]

Dec 29, 2019 0:43:19 GMT -5 tanooki said:

now that YouTube is out, final predictions

the top 5 shutdown is impressive but I'm more shocked that Cozy Little Christmas might re-enter when Santa Tell Me has been on the edge forever..



thanks, Tanooki!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

As expected, All I Want for Christmas is You managed to be #1 in US YouTube. Old Town Road managed to rebound to #3, The Box and Suicidal entered at #8 and #9, respectively.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Lots of Recurrents songs gained in radio.

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/12/29

1(=) Post Malone - Circles 129.74(+0.44)
2(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 127.25(+0.60)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 116.77 +0.63 4 116.77 1 30 75 4
4(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 107.68(+0.92)
5(+1) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 105.29(+1.71)
6(-1) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 105.17(+0.42)
7(=) SHAED - Trampoline 82.39(+0.27)
8(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 76.31(+0.47)
9(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 73.66(+0.01)
10(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 65.36(-0.55)

11(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 65.36(+1.50)

22(-2) Maren Morris - The Bones 51.53(+1.07)

30(+1) Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You 45.23(+0.60)

[Az Paynter]

Keeping in mind that some of the big audience boosts for older songs are related to AC bouncing back from Christmas mode; they spend the week directly following Christmas to return to their regular programming, so that 7 days of audience impressions can stack up.

[reputainbow]

7 christmas songs in the top 10 is insane. the fallout afterwards is going to be crazy too. two of the most exciting weeks of the year imo.

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 60, 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

December 28, 1959 (For the week ending January 2, 1960)

01 02 Why - Frankie Avalon (1st and only week at #1)
02 03 El Paso - Marty Robbins
03 04 The Big Hurt - Miss Toni Fisher
04 06 It's Time To Cry - Paul Anka
05 05 Way Down Yonder In New Orleans - Freddy Cannon
06 01 Heartaches By The Number - Guy Mitchell
07 09 Among My Souvenirs - Connie Francis
08 07 Mack The Knife - Bobby Darin
09 10 Hound Dog Man - Fabian
10 19 Pretty Blue Eyes - Steve Lawrence

15 47 The Little Drummer Boy - The Harry Simeone Chorale


January 2, 1965

01 01 I Feel Fine - The Beatles (2nd of 3 weeks at #1)
02 02 Come See About Me - The Supremes
03 03 Mr. Lonely - Bobby Vinton
04 04 She's a Woman - The Beatles
05 11 Love Potion No. 9 - The Searchers
06 06 Goin' Out Of My Head - Little Anthony & The Imperials
07 05 She's Not There - The Zombies
08 12 Amen - The Impressions
09 09 The Jerk - The Larks
10 14 The Wedding - Julie Rodgers

12 41 Downtown - Petula Clark
14 34 You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling - The Righteous Brothers


January 3, 1970

01 03 Raindrops Keep Fallin' On My Head - B.J. Thomas (1st of 4 weeks at #1)
02 02 Leaving On a Jet Plane - Peter, Paul & Mary
03 01 Someday We'll Be Together - Diana Ross & The Supremes
04 05 Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye - Steam
05 04 Down On The Corner / Fortunate Son - Creedence Clearwater Revival
06 09 Whole Lotta Love - Led Zeppelin
07 08 I Want You Back - The Jackson 5
08 19 Venus - Shocking Blue
09 06 Holly Holy - Neil Diamond
10 14 La La La - Bobby Sherman


January 4, 1975

01 02 Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds - Elton John (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 03 You're The First, The Last, My Everything - Barry White
03 04 Kung Fu Fighting - Carl Douglas
04 06 Junior's Farm - Paul McCartney & Wings
05 08 Laughter In The Rain - Neil Sedaka
06 01 Angie Baby - Helen Reddy
07 09 Only You - Ringo Starr
08 10 Boogie On Reggae Woman - Stevie Wonder
09 11 Please Mr. Postman - The Carpenters
10 12 Mandy - Barry Manilow


January 5, 1980

01 02 Please Don't Go - K.C. & The Sunshine Band (1st and only week at #1)
02 01 Escape (The Pina Colada Song) - Rupert Holmes
03 11 Rock With You - Michael Jackson
04 04 Send One Your Love - Stevie Wonder
05 06 Do That To Me One More Time - The Captain & Tennille
06 03 Babe - Styx
07 05 Still - The Commodores
08 22 Coward Of The County - Kenny Rogers
09 09 Ladies Night - Kool & The Gang
10 13 We Don't Talk Anymore - Cliff Richard

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

January 5, 1985

01 01 Like a Virgin - Madonna (3rd of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 Wild Boys - Duran Duran
03 04 Sea Of Love - The Honeydrippers
04 05 Cool It Now - New Edition
05 06 We Belong - Pat Benatar
06 09 All I Need - Jack Wagner
07 03 Out Of Touch - Daryl Hall & John Oates
08 12 Run To You - Bryan Adams
09 15 You're The Inspiration - Chicago
10 10 Valotte - Julian Lennon

20 65 Do They Know It's Christmas? - Band Aid


January 6, 1990

01 01 Another Day In Paradise - Phil Collins (3rd of 4 weeks at #1)
02 04 Rhythm Nation - Janet Jackson
03 02 Don't Know Much - Linda Ronstadt & Aaron Neville
04 07 Pump Up The Jam - Technotronic
05 05 With Every Beat Of My Heart - Taylor Dayne
06 11 How Am I Supposed To Live Without You - Michael Bolton
07 09 This One's For The Children - New Kids On The Block
08 08 Just Like Jesse James - Cher
09 03 We Didn't Start The Fire - Billy Joel
10 12 Everything - Jody Watley


January 7, 1995

01 01 On Bended Knee - Boyz II Men (4th of 6 weeks at #1)
02 04 Creep - TLC
03 02 Here Comes The Hotstepper - Ini Kamoze
04 03 Another Night - Real McCoy
05 05 Always - Bon Jovi
06 06 I Wanna Be Down - Brandy
07 08 Before I Let You Go - Blackstreet
08 09 Tootsee Roll - 69 Boyz
09 07 I'll Make Love To You - Boyz II Men
10 11 You Want This / '70s Love Groove - Janet Jackson


January 1, 2000

01 01 Smooth - Santana feat. Rob Thomas (11th of 12 weeks at #1)
02 02 Back At One - Brian McKnight
03 03 I Wanna Love You Forever - Jessica Simpson
04 05 My Love Is Your Love - Whitney Houston
05 04 I Knew I Loved You - Savage Garden
06 06 I Need To Know - Marc Anthony
07 07 Hot Boyz - Missy Elliott feat. Lil' Mo, Nas, Eve & Q-Tip
08 08 U Know What's Up - Donell Jones
09 09 Bring It All To Me - Blaque
10 11 Girl On TV - LFO

18 47 The Christmas Song (Chestnuts Roasting On An Open Fire) - Christina Aguilera

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

The other chart for this week I'd expect to be more than 50% holiday songs is Streaming Songs.

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

January 1, 2005

01 02 Let Me Love You - Mario (1st of 9 weeks at #1)
02 01 Drop It Like It's Hot - Snoop Dogg feat. Pharrell
03 03 1, 2 Step - Ciara feat. Missy Elliott
04 07 Soldier - Destiny's Child feat. T.I. & Lil Wayne
05 06 Lovers And Friends - Lil Jon & The East Side Boyz feat. Usher & Ludacris
06 04 My Boo - Usher & Alicia Keys
07 05 Over & Over - Nelly feat. Tim McGraw
08 08 Wonderful - Ja Rule feat. R. Kelly & Ashanti
09 09 Lose My Breath - Destiny's Child
10 12 I Don't Want To Be - Gavin DeGraw


January 2, 2010

01 02 TiK ToK - Ke$ha (1st of 9 weeks at #1)
02 01 Empire State Of Mind - Jay-Z & Alicia Keys
03 03 Bad Romance - Lady Gaga
04 04 Replay - Iyaz
05 05 Fireflies - Owl City
06 06 Sexy Bitch - David Guetta feat. Akon
07 07 Whatcha Say - Jason Derulo
08 10 Down - Jay Sean feat. Lil Wayne
09 08 Meet Me Halfway - The Black Eyed Peas
10 09 3 - Britney Spears


January 3, 2015

01 01 Blank Space - Taylor Swift (6th of 7 weeks at #1)
02 02 Take Me To Church - Hozier
03 03 Uptown Funk! - Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars
04 06 Thinking Out Loud - Ed Sheeran
05 04 Lips Are Movin' - Meghan Trainor
06 05 I'm Not The Only One - Sam Smith
07 09 Love Me Harder - Ariana Grande & The Weeknd
08 11 Jealous - Nick Jonas
09 08 Animals - Maroon 5
10 07 All About That Bass - Meghan Trainor

14 NE Wasted Love - Matt McAndrew


January 5, 2019

01 01 thank u, next - Ariana Grande (7th and final week at #1)
02 02 Without Me - Halsey
03 07 All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey
04 03 Sicko Mode - Travis Scott
05 04 Sunflower - Post Malone & Swae Lee
06 06 High Hopes - Panic! At The Disco
07 05 Happier - Marshmello & Bastille
08 13 Jingle Bell Rock - Bobby Helms
09 11 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee
10 12 A Holly Jolly Christmas - Burl Ives

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I hope the entire top 5 is holiday songs - just to see you all seethe

[bat1990]

*sighs* Madonna, Whitney, Janet, Celine, and Mariah all on the chart at the same time

Oh the 90s

[Deleted]

Dec 29, 2019 12:44:18 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I hope the entire top 5 is holiday songs - just to see you all seethe

Fun coincidence: I was looking back at my 12 Rankdowns of Christmas thread from last year (/this year because I was a mess and didn't finish it until the end of January), and I realized that the top 6 songs in the 'Classic Christmas' rankdown also happen to be the top 6 Christmas songs that will presumably appear on the 1/4 chart (albeit in a different order). And if I had ranked by median first instead of average first, the top 7 songs in that rankdown would be the seven songs that are about to appear in the Hot 100 top 10. I know this wouldn't matter to most people here but I got a good laugh out of it. Of course these songs are about to take over the top 10. Pulse knows best after all!

[tanooki]

Dec 29, 2019 10:09:17 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Dec 29, 2019 0:43:19 GMT -5 tanooki said:

now that YouTube is out, final predictions

I think One Man Band will be on its 18th week during the Christmas onslaught so I don't think it will go recurrent. Apart from that, great job! :)

Yeah that was my mistake. Its 53 i think

[bat1990]

Dec 29, 2019 13:42:48 GMT -5 @antigonerising said:

Dec 29, 2019 12:44:18 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I hope the entire top 5 is holiday songs - just to see you all seethe

Fun coincidence: I was looking back at my 12 Rankdowns of Christmas thread from last year (/this year because I was a mess and didn't finish it until the end of January), and I realized that the top 6 songs in the 'Classic Christmas' rankdown also happen to be the top 6 Christmas songs that will presumably appear on the 1/4 chart (albeit in a different order). And if I had ranked by median first instead of average first, the top 7 songs in that rankdown would be the seven songs that are about to appear in the Hot 100 top 10. I know this wouldn't matter to most people here but I got a good laugh out of it. Of course these songs are about to take over the top 10. Pulse knows best after all!

I feel like there's a statistical argument/extrapolation some where in there about Pulse being full of a diverse array of music listeners across the country and world and that can be generalized within 90-95% confidence to the part of the American public that drives the Billboard charts.

[Deleted]

Dec 29, 2019 12:44:18 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I hope the entire top 5 is holiday songs - just to see you all seethe

Then maybe they will adjust the rules for Holiday songs if this does happen

[Lukas]

Baesd off of Tanooki's predictions - we have a strong chart near the top this week!

I hope AIWFCIY can get to 60K this week. This would make it the third song from this past year to reach that mark (7 Rings peaked with 66K, OTR peaked with 100K). And with Circles being the highest charting non-Christmas song this week with less than 30K points, rules for holiday songs should absolutely not be changed. It would be ridiculous to create one that would diminish the power of the #1 song by more than half.

The top 3 this week is the strongest since the highly competitive era of spring/summer 2017. Nowhere since then has the #3 song have had such high points. (The last time the #3 song had such high points was That's What I Like when Despacito was early in its dominance).

Also, regarding Christmas songs "taking over" the charts, the amount of Christmas songs may not go up, but the number of chart points they are getting has. The projected top 4 all have gained 50%+ in points since just last year. With the same projected points this year last year during Christmas week TUN would be at #4 instead of #1. So near the top, Christmas songs are definitely taking over, but overall, not so much.

[Abbaschand]

Dec 29, 2019 12:07:52 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

January 2, 2010

01 02 TiK ToK - Ke$ha (1st of 9 weeks at #1)[br

The beginning of something special, but yet also something destructive. This thing cause a butterfly effect on the pop genre history.

[fhas]

Dec 29, 2019 15:40:41 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Baesd off of Tanooki's predictions - we have a strong chart near the top this week!

I hope AIWFCIY can get to 60K this week. This would make it the third song from this past year to reach that mark (7 Rings peaked with 66K, OTR peaked with 100K). And with Circles being the highest charting non-Christmas song this week with less than 30K points, rules for holiday songs should absolutely not be changed. It would be ridiculous to create one that would diminish the power of the #1 song by more than half.

The top 3 this week is the strongest since the highly competitive era of spring/summer 2017. Nowhere since then has the #3 song have had over 40,000 points. (The last time the #3 song had such high points was That's What I Like when Despacito was early in its dominance).

Also, regarding Christmas songs "taking over" the charts, the amount of Christmas songs may not go up, but the number of chart points they are getting has. The projected top 4 all have gained 50%+ in points since just last year. With the same projected points this year last year during Christmas week TUN would be at #4 instead of #1. So near the top, Christmas songs are definitely taking over, but overall, not so much.

In August 2018, FEFE peaked at #3 with 41k points (65M streams) and that same week GLY was #4 with 40k. Later that month, Sicko Mode debuted at #4 with 37k (its best week points wise).

In January/February 2018, Finesse had two weeks at #3 with 43k points and Havana had a week at #4 with 40k.

[Lukas]

Dec 29, 2019 18:28:01 GMT -5 fhas said:

Dec 29, 2019 15:40:41 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Baesd off of Tanooki's predictions - we have a strong chart near the top this week!

I hope AIWFCIY can get to 60K this week. This would make it the third song from this past year to reach that mark (7 Rings peaked with 66K, OTR peaked with 100K). And with Circles being the highest charting non-Christmas song this week with less than 30K points, rules for holiday songs should absolutely not be changed. It would be ridiculous to create one that would diminish the power of the #1 song by more than half.

The top 3 this week is the strongest since the highly competitive era of spring/summer 2017. Nowhere since then has the #3 song have had over 40,000 points. (The last time the #3 song had such high points was That's What I Like when Despacito was early in its dominance).

Also, regarding Christmas songs "taking over" the charts, the amount of Christmas songs may not go up, but the number of chart points they are getting has. The projected top 4 all have gained 50%+ in points since just last year. With the same projected points this year last year during Christmas week TUN would be at #4 instead of #1. So near the top, Christmas songs are definitely taking over, but overall, not so much.

In August 2018, FEFE peaked at #3 with 41k points (65M streams) and that same week GLY was #4 with 40k. Later that month, Sicko Mode debuted at #4 with 37k (its best week points wise).

In January/February 2018, Finesse had two weeks at #3 with 43k points and Havana had a week at #4 with 40k.

Thanks for pointing that out. I changed the wording in the original post to reflect that.

Kinda rushed through that post tbh, which was how I missed the first case.

I use a slightly different formula for the 2017/2018 era (which gives less points than your formula) and I use estimations for unpublished metrics.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I also wonder if part of the reason for the abundance of holiday songs at the top of the chart, combined with the general weakness of the chart in recent months (if I remember that correctly) is the utter lack of excitement in music in general. Maybe it's me, and while I've been able to find songs I've liked among the releases over the last half a year, I can't help but feel a near lack of excitement in pop music. Post Malone and Ariana are the biggest names in pop music and they don't seem to generate the sae level of hype and excitement that Rihanna, Adele, Gaga, Katy, etc, did during their peak. An award show with their names as headliners don't seem like such a big deal. Is it because I'm getting older? Am I actually that out of touch? I've never felt so blah toward music and the charts and I can't help but wonder if it's a general sentiment among most others. I've never felt like I don't care as much as I have lately. What concerns me the most is that I'm almost wondering if this is just the new normal. With the stars of yesteryear no longer guaranteed to attain high numbers anymore, and even Ariana doesn't have that pull, it's almost like it's just the next big thing for a few weeks and then we're moving on to something else over and over again.

[weirdo]

Dec 30, 2019 1:47:41 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I also wonder if part of the reason for the abundance of holiday songs at the top of the chart, combined with the general weakness of the chart in recent months (if I remember that correctly) is the utter lack of excitement in music in general. Maybe it's me, and while I've been able to find songs I've liked among the releases over the last half a year, I can't help but feel a near lack of excitement in pop music. Post Malone and Ariana are the biggest names in pop music and they don't seem to generate the sae level of hype and excitement that Rihanna, Adele, Gaga, Katy, etc, did during their peak. An award show with their names as headliners don't seem like such a big deal. Is it because I'm getting older? Am I actually that out of touch? I've never felt so blah toward music and the charts and I can't help but wonder if it's a general sentiment among most others. I've never felt like I don't care as much as I have lately. What concerns me the most is that I'm almost wondering if this is just the new normal. With the stars of yesteryear no longer guaranteed to attain high numbers anymore, and even Ariana doesn't have that pull, it's almost like it's just the next big thing for a few weeks and then we're moving on to something else over and over again.

I actually agree. I think ever since 2018 its been this way for me. I miss the days when there were actually big megastars in music, and i think part of the reason that music has become less interesting lately is the viral hits. Also the high debuts and big falls afterwards. Songs are just not having as much longebity it seems like