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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 13:06:34 GMT -5
All I want this year is for Post to make a rock album. I don’t care what else happens as long as that does. If there's someone who's able to revive rock in the mainstream, it's Post Malone. I don't think a full rock album would work just yet, but he should definitely keep incorporating rock elements in his music like he did with "Take What You Want". Who knows... maybe trap-rock might become one of the new trends of 2020. When artists reach a status of massive popularity and appeal, the general public seems to be more willing to consume more experimental work from them, so these artists should take advantage of this and go outside the current, safe trends. The only example that comes to mind here is when Christina Aguilera mixed vintage soul and jazz with hip hop on her 2006 lead single "Ain't No Other Man", coming after the massive success of "Beautiful" and the "Stripped" era. |
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Post by Lukas on Jan 8, 2020 13:15:25 GMT -5
Billboard Hot 100 01/18/2020 Early Predictions: | Rank | Song | Radio | Sales | On-Demand Streaming | Free Streaming | Passive Streaming | Total Streaming | Weighted Streaming | Total Points | | 1 | The Box | 16,100,000 | 11,200 | 47,300,000 | 14,400,000 | 900,000 | 62,600,000 | 55,100,000 | 41,000 | | 2 | Circles | 103,800,000 | 19,800 | 15,600,000 | 4,200,000 | 3,700,000 | 23,400,000 | 19,200,000 | 31,500 | | 3 | Memories | 95,400,000 | 17,800 | 10,400,000 | 3,500,000 | 3,400,000 | 17,300,000 | 13,900,000 | 26,300 | | 4 | Dance Monkey | 46,900,000 | 21,400 | 15,200,000 | 11,600,000 | 2,200,000 | 29,000,000 | 23,200,000 | 25,900 | | 5 | Roxanne | 45,100,000 | 8,100 | 17,100,000 | 12,400,000 | 2,300,000 | 31,800,000 | 25,300,000 | 24,900 | | 6 | Yummy | 27,400,000 | 24,600 | 18,600,000 | 9,000,000 | 3,400,000 | 31,000,000 | 25,100,000 | 24,900 | | 7 | Someone You Loved | 88,400,000 | 9,400 | 9,700,000 | 6,000,000 | 3,100,000 | 18,800,000 | 14,700,000 | 24,400 | | 8 | Good As Hell | 99,500,000 | 12,700 | 8,800,000 | 2,200,000 | 2,400,000 | 13,400,000 | 11,000,000 | 24,200 | | 9 | 10,000 Hours | 92,500,000 | 12,300 | 9,500,000 | 2,000,000 | 3,600,000 | 15,100,000 | 12,200,000 | 23,900 | | 10 | Ballin' | 47,300,000 | 2,100 | 15,600,000 | 9,900,000 | 2,200,000 | 27,700,000 | 22,600,000 | 22,400 |
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Post by daysintheeast on Jan 8, 2020 13:17:36 GMT -5
I think that if artists drop a single, wait for a few months to drop another single, and then release the album a few months later is a good idea in the streaming era. Post Malone is an example of that, he dropped Rockstar in Sept. 2017, then released Psycho in Feb. 2018, and released the B&B album in May 2018; people gravitated towards Better Now and became the last hit of the era. Yup. Same with Drake. Although God's Plan wasnt supposed to be the lead single, it got too big and then he followed that with Nice for What and released Scorpion 6 months after Gods Plan and had 2 more hits (Nonstop and In My feelings) |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 13:25:41 GMT -5
^^^ That's a good alternative, and a much preferrable one to what Ariana did with "thank, u next" (three front-loaded singles in four months and then nothing else, despite the massive potential of some songs). Of course, the songs have to be good, which was the case for both Drake and Post Malone. For instance, using the classic example of Taylor Swift and her infamously terrible single choices, imagine having "ME!" as the lead single, and then waiting nearly six months for "You Need To Calm Down"? Good single choices are crucial for this method to work. |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jan 8, 2020 13:41:22 GMT -5
In terms of modern single rollouts, beerbongs & Bentleys, Hollywood's Bleeding and 1989 had the best success. All lead singles spent 20+ weeks in the Top 10, followed by three or more songs that spent several weeks in the Top 10, and each have two number one singles.
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dovahduck
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Post by dovahduck on Jan 8, 2020 13:53:13 GMT -5
In terms of modern single rollouts, beerbongs & Bentleys, Hollywood's Bleeding and 1989 had the best success. All lead singles spent 20+ weeks in the Top 10, followed by three or more songs that spent several weeks in the Top 10, and each have two number one singles. I'd argue that 'Scorpion' was even more successful than 'B&B' to be honest, it had an additional number one single after the album came out and five out of its seven singles made the year-end Hot 100 list of 2018. |
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chanman
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Post by chanman on Jan 8, 2020 13:55:15 GMT -5
All I want this year is for Post to make a rock album. I don’t care what else happens as long as that does. If there's someone who's able to revive rock in the mainstream, it's Post Malone. I don't think a full rock album would work just yet, but he should definitely keep incorporating rock elements in his music like he did with "Take What You Want". Who knows... maybe trap-rock might become one of the new trends of 2020. When artists reach a status of massive popularity and appeal, the general public seems to be more willing to consume more experimental work from them, so these artists should take advantage of this and go outside the current, safe trends. The only example that comes to mind here is when Christina Aguilera mixed vintage soul and jazz with hip hop on her 2006 lead single "Ain't No Other Man", coming after the massive success of "Beautiful" and the "Stripped" era. I'm here for Trap Rock!!!!! |
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Jan 8, 2020 13:56:23 GMT -5
All I want this year is for Post to make a rock album. I don’t care what else happens as long as that does. If there's someone who's able to revive rock in the mainstream, it's Post Malone. I don't think a full rock album would work just yet, but he should definitely keep incorporating rock elements in his music like he did with "Take What You Want". Who knows... maybe trap-rock might become one of the new trends of 2020. When artists reach a status of massive popularity and appeal, the general public seems to be more willing to consume more experimental work from them, so these artists should take advantage of this and go outside the current, safe trends. The only example that comes to mind here is when Christina Aguilera mixed vintage soul and jazz with hip hop on her 2006 lead single "Ain't No Other Man", coming after the massive success of "Beautiful" and the "Stripped" era. Some rock elements have made a subtle comeback in the past few years. I've noticed a lot more organic instruments in pop songs since EDM is going away (Circles, Youngblood, Senorita, and the actual rock song Shallow) and even a couple songs have had solos (Adore You, Worth It, Breathin) which I missed SO MUCH |
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atg
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Post by atg on Jan 8, 2020 14:30:42 GMT -5
Where did that song peak? Didn’t it debut with 4M+ streams. How did it not hit number one? It was cockblocked by Girls Like You Just when you thought you couldn’t hate a song more. I completely forgot this happened |
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chanman
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Post by chanman on Jan 8, 2020 14:32:27 GMT -5
Billboard Hot 100 01/18/2020 Early Predictions: | Rank | Song | Radio | Sales | On-Demand Streaming | Free Streaming | Passive Streaming | Total Streaming | Weighted Streaming | Total Points | | 1 | The Box | 16,100,000 | 11,200 | 47,300,000 | 14,400,000 | 900,000 | 62,600,000 | 55,100,000 | 41,000 | | 2 | Circles | 103,800,000 | 19,800 | 15,600,000 | 4,200,000 | 3,700,000 | 23,400,000 | 19,200,000 | 31,500 | | 3 | Memories | 95,400,000 | 17,800 | 10,400,000 | 3,500,000 | 3,400,000 | 17,300,000 | 13,900,000 | 26,300 | | 4 | Dance Monkey | 46,900,000 | 21,400 | 15,200,000 | 11,600,000 | 2,200,000 | 29,000,000 | 23,200,000 | 25,900 | | 5 | Roxanne | 45,100,000 | 8,100 | 17,100,000 | 12,400,000 | 2,300,000 | 31,800,000 | 25,300,000 | 24,900 | | 6 | Yummy | 27,400,000 | 24,600 | 18,600,000 | 9,000,000 | 3,400,000 | 31,000,000 | 25,100,000 | 24,900 | | 7 | Someone You Loved | 88,400,000 | 9,400 | 9,700,000 | 6,000,000 | 3,100,000 | 18,800,000 | 14,700,000 | 24,400 | | 8 | Good As Hell | 99,500,000 | 12,700 | 8,800,000 | 2,200,000 | 2,400,000 | 13,400,000 | 11,000,000 | 24,200 | | 9 | 10,000 Hours | 92,500,000 | 12,300 | 9,500,000 | 2,000,000 | 3,600,000 | 15,100,000 | 12,200,000 | 23,900 | | 10 | Ballin' | 47,300,000 | 2,100 | 15,600,000 | 9,900,000 | 2,200,000 | 27,700,000 | 22,600,000 | 22,400 |
I find some figures look weird. 1. Billboard Chart Beat article has Justin's single start on the charts with 26.7 mil on Radio. So I kind of doubt it is going to be around 27.4 mil. It should be more. Its streaming should be higher, seeing large views on YouTube. 2. As for The Box, I was not expecting such high airplay numbers already, probably 10 mil. Its total streaming numbers seems abit high compared to current chart week of 42 mil, I know this week had some increases but not sure its that high. However, good job in putting together the figures for easy viewing. |
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Jan 8, 2020 14:37:58 GMT -5
^ did Dance Monkey really have that big of a boost?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 14:40:44 GMT -5
^ That's true. Even if I can't stand "Señorita", it has a very pleasant organic production, and the intro to "Circles" is quite wonderful as well. And yes, there's no way a song like "Shallow" would have topped the charts during the peak of EDM or even in 2015/2016. Gosh, that's actually an interesting pattern. I remembered being so surprised to hear the solo on "Worth It", especially since I absolute live for guitar solos 😍😍😍 So even if rock as a genre has been dead in the mainstream, popular music has been finding some ways of keeping some of its essence alive. That's good news, and I hope this comeback continues this upcoming decade. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jan 8, 2020 14:47:43 GMT -5
This is really sad.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 8, 2020 15:10:13 GMT -5
American Express better watch out. Mastercard coming for #1! I'm getting Wendy's 'We Beefin'' vibes from this... That's not necessarily a bad thing. I loled at the "We Beefin" EP. |
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Jan 8, 2020 15:15:47 GMT -5
How DARE anyone promote their work. |
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Post by Lukas on Jan 8, 2020 15:19:16 GMT -5
Billboard Hot 100 01/18/2020 Early Predictions: | Rank | Song | Radio | Sales | On-Demand Streaming | Free Streaming | Passive Streaming | Total Streaming | Weighted Streaming | Total Points | | 1 | The Box | 16,100,000 | 11,200 | 47,300,000 | 14,400,000 | 900,000 | 62,600,000 | 55,100,000 | 41,000 | | 2 | Circles | 103,800,000 | 19,800 | 15,600,000 | 4,200,000 | 3,700,000 | 23,400,000 | 19,200,000 | 31,500 | | 3 | Memories | 95,400,000 | 17,800 | 10,400,000 | 3,500,000 | 3,400,000 | 17,300,000 | 13,900,000 | 26,300 | | 4 | Dance Monkey | 46,900,000 | 21,400 | 15,200,000 | 11,600,000 | 2,200,000 | 29,000,000 | 23,200,000 | 25,900 | | 5 | Roxanne | 45,100,000 | 8,100 | 17,100,000 | 12,400,000 | 2,300,000 | 31,800,000 | 25,300,000 | 24,900 | | 6 | Yummy | 27,400,000 | 24,600 | 18,600,000 | 9,000,000 | 3,400,000 | 31,000,000 | 25,100,000 | 24,900 | | 7 | Someone You Loved | 88,400,000 | 9,400 | 9,700,000 | 6,000,000 | 3,100,000 | 18,800,000 | 14,700,000 | 24,400 | | 8 | Good As Hell | 99,500,000 | 12,700 | 8,800,000 | 2,200,000 | 2,400,000 | 13,400,000 | 11,000,000 | 24,200 | | 9 | 10,000 Hours | 92,500,000 | 12,300 | 9,500,000 | 2,000,000 | 3,600,000 | 15,100,000 | 12,200,000 | 23,900 | | 10 | Ballin' | 47,300,000 | 2,100 | 15,600,000 | 9,900,000 | 2,200,000 | 27,700,000 | 22,600,000 | 22,400 |
I find some figures look weird. 1. Billboard Chart Beat article has Justin's single start on the charts with 26.7 mil on Radio. So I kind of doubt it is going to be around 27.4 mil. It should be more. Its streaming should be higher, seeing large views on YouTube. 2. As for The Box, I was not expecting such high airplay numbers already, probably 10 mil. Its total streaming numbers seems abit high compared to current chart week of 42 mil, I know this week had some increases but not sure its that high. However, good job in putting together the figures for easy viewing. 1. The single start was on last Friday (1/3/2020) when it was first released; however, the airplay tracking week is on a Monday - Sunday period and doesn't start on Friday; therefore that opening radio airplay does not get counted toward this week. YouTube views are global, so only a fraction of those are actually inside the US and thus only a fraction would contribute to the chart (and this number could vary depending on the exact percentage, which can only be determined when the YouTube charts come out). 2. Streaming for The Box can vary since I have less data to go off of because this isn't a final prediction. I'm taking into account the fact that its Spotify keeps rising a lot these past few days for on-demand streaming (if it slumps somehow in the next two days then the estimated number would be an overestimate), and the fact that its global YouTube views are jumping up quickly (US views may not be as much since it's around here more). Airplay can vary since the song just charted on Kworb yesterday with 5.48 mil views; although Kworb tends to underestimate AI for new releases so I added some more mil to it. Also, thanks for your (and everyone else's) appreciation for these predictions and figures. They don't go unnoticed. |
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Post by Lukas on Jan 8, 2020 15:23:24 GMT -5
^ did Dance Monkey really have that big of a boost? The boost in points isn't as big compared to The Box, obviously, but it's not really a boost. What is helping Dance Monkey out more in comparison to other songs is the fact that it's having gains in all three metrics (it's rising overall by about 9%, and 7-12% on all metrics). It moves up 24,000-25,900 points (from last week to this week) as a consequence (I didn't have Dance Monkey at 24,000 points last week but it's an estimate of real points after the chart gets released). Other songs like Roxanne and Someone You Loved, for example, are losing points in metrics (more specifically streaming and sales). An overall small gain everywhere is just as good as a huge boost in one metric sometimes. |
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Post by Lukas on Jan 8, 2020 15:27:59 GMT -5
I'm assuming you mean 40M+ streams, since a song doesn't do much impact with just 4M streams. It debuted at #2 and then dropped at #23. It was blocked by Girls Like You, although barely according to fhas. I meant 4M+ streams in the U.S? LOL. (Sorry). What’s the highest U.S first-day streams? I wonder if an act will ever debut with over 6M streams in the U.S. Oh you meant Spotify daily streams, sorry about that. From your wording in the first post it seemed like you meant that debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 with 4M+ streams total. |
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GP
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Post by GP on Jan 8, 2020 15:33:23 GMT -5
How far could the Dua single go??? Is top15 possible for this week?
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jan 8, 2020 15:40:39 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/01/08
1(=) Post Malone - Circles 136.97(+1.83)
2(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 132.92(+1.12)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 126.56(+1.87)
4(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 122.31(+0.98)
5(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 117.71(+1.00)
6(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 110.56(+1.74)
7(=) SHAED - Trampoline 86.70(+0.57)
8(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 80.69(+0.49)
9(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 75.97(+0.93)
10(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 74.56(+0.03)
15(=) Wale - On Chill (feat. Jeremih) 63.13 +1.39 16(=) The Weeknd - Heartless 62.58(+1.52)
17(=) Mustard - Ballin’ (feat. Roddy Ricch) 62.04(+1.19)
18(=) Maren Morris - The Bones 60.86(+1.07) 19(=) Tones and I - Dance Monkey 60.44(+0.76)
20(=) Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You 58.88(+0.83)
21(+3) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 58.08(+2.16)
25(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 56.03(+1.29)
32(=) Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 49.13(+0.72)
34(+1) Justin Bieber - Yummy 45.41(+6.04)
36(+2) Harry Styles - Adore You 39.23(+0.70)
41(+3) DaBaby - BOP 37.61(+1.49) 47(=) Doja Cat - Juicy 35.85(+0.70)
50(+1) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 31.76(+0.70) 59(+4) Summer Walker & Bryson Tiller - Playing Games (Extended Version) 28.68(+0.79)
77(+3) DaniLeigh - Easy (Remix) [feat. Chris Brown] 23.77(+0.73)
81(+1) Lil Baby - Woah 22.99(+0.77) 82(+1) Ed Sheeran - South of the Border (feat. Camila Cabello & Cardi B) 22.91(+0.75)
-(-) Roddy Ricch - The Box 7.27(+1.29)
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Jan 8, 2020 15:45:21 GMT -5
How far could the Dua single go??? Is top15 possible for this week? Maybe, DSN can hit the top 15 this week. If not, next week for sure. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jan 8, 2020 15:47:38 GMT -5
How DARE anyone promote their work. Congratulations on completely missing my point. |
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Jan 8, 2020 16:18:27 GMT -5
I do truly think that rock will make a slight comeback this decade, although it will not be traditionally rock. Like others have stated, I think songs like “Take What You Want” are the future of the genre, and once that song gets pushed to radio, expect others to follow (hopefully)
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jan 8, 2020 16:38:38 GMT -5
In one of these threads we were discussing the longevity of certain hits. I used YouTube and Spotify to compile some data for some of the 80s/90s divas. Anyone interested can go here. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jan 8, 2020 17:18:05 GMT -5
Where does "Le Freak" fall on all-time lists? I just noticed it got 6 weeks at #1 but fell and returned to #1 on two occasions during its run, so it clearly had a long run at the top of the chart considering the average chart run in the 70s.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 17:27:55 GMT -5
I've said this before, some times releasing the album without a lead single is the best move in the streamimg era. A lot of artists get their biggest hit only after the album releases and fans gravitate towards a certain song, even after releasing multiple pre-album singles. Hopefully Bieber gets his Bad Guy or The Box once the album releases. Now that I think about it, this might be the best way of doing an album/era rollout these days. "bad guy", "The Box", and "My Oh My" all got an organic boost from the album release, the latter two which will definitely encourage the artists in question to give them the full single treatment. However, this would also result in much less singles being released per album, which would be unfortunate. Nevertheless, I still think a lead single is important to build up hype for the upcoming era and setting up a new artistic and thematic direction. "Don't Start Now", "Lose You To Love Me", and "thank u, next" are all excellent examples of lead singles. Poor choices like "ME!" and "Yummy", on the other hand... Billie would only have one hit if she didn't release any pre album singles but now she has 3 (4) |
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jan 8, 2020 17:35:49 GMT -5
about Post. someone here posted a crazy stat about how ever since Rocstar debuted top 10 back in 2017, hes only left the top ten 3 times? does anyone have the updated/exact quote Since Rockstar's debut (September 2017) I've only counted 6 total weeks without him in the top 10. 1 week for the Scorpion album bomb, 4 in between Better Now and Sunflower, and 1 in between Goodbyes and Circles. |
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Post by Lukas on Jan 8, 2020 17:56:42 GMT -5
Where does "Le Freak" fall on all-time lists? I just noticed it got 6 weeks at #1 but fell and returned to #1 on two occasions during its run, so it clearly had a long run at the top of the chart considering the average chart run in the 70s. It was at #25 on the most recently updated all time list in August 2018. Though Girls Like You and Old Town Road are projected to pass it in the next update. |
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Jan 8, 2020 18:02:08 GMT -5
You guys think the radio would like SUGAR if it keeps gaining everywhere else?
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Jan 8, 2020 18:04:09 GMT -5
Why can't artists learn to drop promoting flops and head to the writing board, make better music instead biebs |
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