Billboard Hot 100: 02/08/2020

[moonlite]

I think Blinding Lights only chance to go top ten is when his album drops, which I hope is soon

[13]

Jan 31, 2020 6:59:34 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

I wonder how dance monkey went number 1 literally everywhere except America. It was even number 1 in Canada and the charts are usually similar to the U.S. (except bad guy being in the top 10 for 377 weeks in Canada)

Are we completely sure that it won't? I don't think it's peaked on either streaming or radio yet.

[weirdo]

Feb 1, 2020 9:17:47 GMT -5 13 said:

Jan 31, 2020 6:59:34 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

I wonder how dance monkey went number 1 literally everywhere except America. It was even number 1 in Canada and the charts are usually similar to the U.S. (except bad guy being in the top 10 for 377 weeks in Canada)

Are we completely sure that it won't? I don't think it's peaked on either streaming or radio yet.

I think it'll go to about 4 or 5 and then peak, but it could go higher then that

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Memories will probably #1 in Radio Songs:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/02/01

1(=) Post Malone - Circles 140.90(-0.24)
2(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 139.22(+1.20)
3(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 125.07(-0.29)
4(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 118.13(-0.54)
5(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 117.14(-1.14)
6(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 106.60(-1.72)
7(=) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 90.76(+0.78)
8(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 90.57(+1.61)
9(=) The Weeknd - Heartless 88.91(+1.06)
10(=) Maren Morris - The Bones 76.71(+0.60)

18(+1) DaBaby - BOP 60.31(+1.03)

22(+1) blackbear - hot girl bummer 56.93(+1.77)

32(+1) Roddy Ricch - The Box 45.97(+2.00)

34(=) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 44.60(+1.09)

43(+1) Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 36.95(+0.93)

46(+2) The Black Eyed Peas & J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 34.00(+0.81)

50(+6) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 31.93(+0.86)

-(-) Taylor Swift - The Man 3.47(+0.79)

[weirdo]

Circles is FINALLY on the decline. That song was gaining on radio forever

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Feb 1, 2020 8:59:37 GMT -5 moonlite said:

I think Blinding Lights only chance to go top ten is when his album drops, which I hope is soon

I disagree. Streaming and sales are really fine (top 20), and currently it's #50 on radio. and I'm sure it will reach the top 10 on radio in 4-5 weeks.

My prediction for the song is top 5 definitely.

[moonlite]

Jan 30, 2020 14:22:49 GMT -5 tuna said:

The Box is going down ever so slightly. I'm frequently wrong but I don't think it'll go above 3mil again

Above 3m today, looks like you were right about being frequently wrong

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Spotify - 01/31/19

1(=) Roddy Ricch - The Box 3.031m
2(=) Future - Life is Good 1.946M
3(=) Eminem - Godzilla 1.486M
4(=) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 1.217M
5(debut) Lil Wayne - I Do It 1.170M
6(=) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 1.104M
7(+3) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 1.040M
8(-1) YNW Melly - Suicidal 1.035M
9(-1) Post Malone - Circles 1.021M
10(-1) Trevor Daniel - Falling 1.011M

14(+5) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 910K
17(+33) Justin Bieber - Get Me 827K
22(-11) Billie Eilish - bad guy 753K
25(debut) Lil Wayne - Funeral 730K
27(debut) A Boogie wit da Hoodie - King of My City 709K
28(debut) Lil Wayne - Mahogany 707K
29(debut) Dua Lipa - Physical 706K
61(debut) Taylor Swift - Only the Young (Featured in Miss Americana) 465K
63(+18) Jack Harlow - WHAT'S POPPIN 450K - (taking note of this because I'm predicting this song will chart in the next few weeks and have a decent run in the next)
74(+50) Russ - BEST ON EARTH 418K - (apparently Russ dropped an album so this might rise on the charts)

[annoymous1]

Well Circles had a good run at #1 time for Maroon 5 to keep that #1 spot warm until The Box dethrones it.

[fhas]

Feb 1, 2020 2:15:30 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

That ratio for 10,000 Hrs is interesting. Is it extremely popular (relatively speaking) on Amazon or Youtube?

Also, taking an in-depth look at Spotify weekly numbers and seems that Blinding Lights hasn't taken off quite as much as I thought, in fact it was very stable week-on-week despite having the video out and airplay increasing. It needs to be pushed in some way to go top ten on Hot 100 at this rate. Hope it will.

It's #4 on Amazon and country songs usually have good numbers there. YouTube Video is not included here, but I'm not sure about YouTube Music's songs.

[thegreatdivine]

I expected Wayne to have a better debut on Spotify US. His album might not crack 250K SPS.

[moonlite]

^ Ill be surprised if he cracked 200k

[fhas]

Feb 1, 2020 11:35:43 GMT -5 annoymous1 said:

Well Circles had a good run at #1 time for Maroon 5 to keep that #1 spot warm until The Box dethrones it.

The last time a male black rapper reached #1 on Radio Songs without a pop/R&B singer feature was in 2009/2010. I don't think Roddy will be the rapper to break this "thing".

[annoymous1]

Feb 1, 2020 11:56:03 GMT -5 fhas said:

Feb 1, 2020 11:35:43 GMT -5 annoymous1 said:

Well Circles had a good run at #1 time for Maroon 5 to keep that #1 spot warm until The Box dethrones it.

The last time a male black rapper reached #1 on Radio Songs without a pop/R&B singer feature was in 2009/2010. I don't think Roddy will be the rapper to break this "thing".

Oh wow I didn't know that well then...but I have a question what number do you think the box will peak on radio?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I would think it should be able to get to the top 10 in Radio Songs.

[atg]

Feb 1, 2020 10:38:26 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Feb 1, 2020 8:59:37 GMT -5 moonlite said:

I think Blinding Lights only chance to go top ten is when his album drops, which I hope is soon

I disagree. Streaming and sales are really fine (top 20), and currently it's #50 on radio. and I'm sure it will reach the top 10 on radio in 4-5 weeks.

My prediction for the song is top 5 definitely.

Also it’s the only song that went up in the whole top 10 on spotify today. I think it could reach top 5/10 and the best chance for #1 is when the album drops

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Feb 1, 2020 11:42:24 GMT -5 fhas said:

Feb 1, 2020 2:15:30 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

That ratio for 10,000 Hrs is interesting. Is it extremely popular (relatively speaking) on Amazon or Youtube?

Also, taking an in-depth look at Spotify weekly numbers and seems that Blinding Lights hasn't taken off quite as much as I thought, in fact it was very stable week-on-week despite having the video out and airplay increasing. It needs to be pushed in some way to go top ten on Hot 100 at this rate. Hope it will.

It's #4 on Amazon and country songs usually have good numbers there. YouTube Video is not included here, but I'm not sure about YouTube Music's songs.

I would think 10,000 Hours would be the first song that Amazon Alexa-enabled speakers would play when people request them to play Country music, similar to AIWFCIY when people requested a Christmas holiday one.

[mzumii]

Feb 1, 2020 10:22:30 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Memories will probably #1 in Radio Songs:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/02/01

1(=) Post Malone - Circles 140.90(-0.24)
2(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 139.22(+1.20)
3(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 125.07(-0.29)
4(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 118.13(-0.54)
5(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 117.14(-1.14)
6(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 106.60(-1.72)
7(=) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 90.76(+0.78)
8(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 90.57(+1.61)
9(=) The Weeknd - Heartless 88.91(+1.06)
10(=) Maren Morris - The Bones 76.71(+0.60)

18(+1) DaBaby - BOP 60.31(+1.03)

22(+1) blackbear - hot girl bummer 56.93(+1.77)

32(+1) Roddy Ricch - The Box 45.97(+2.00)

34(=) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 44.60(+1.09)

43(+1) Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 36.95(+0.93)

46(+2) The Black Eyed Peas & J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 34.00(+0.81)

50(+6) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 31.93(+0.86)

-(-) Taylor Swift - The Man 3.47(+0.79)

If hot girl bummer keeps on gaining like this I think it might have a shot at the Hot 100 top 10

[violentdreams]

I wonder if BOP will have another shot to go top 10, since it seems that it isn't really decreasing significantly on streaming and it's only getting bigger on radio. I just want it to get a single week, because the song is just too big for a #11 peak.

[violentdreams]

Feb 1, 2020 11:45:09 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I expected Wayne to have a better debut on Spotify US. His album might not crack 250K SPS.

Yeah, I mean obviously nobody should have expected another 40M+ debut since TCV came out under special circumstances, but at the very least I expected him to have more than one song over a million (and in the low millions, I should add). His total stream count (with a few songs left off) is 8.9 million.

[fhas]

Feb 1, 2020 12:00:11 GMT -5 annoymous1 said:

Feb 1, 2020 11:56:03 GMT -5 fhas said:

The last time a male black rapper reached #1 on Radio Songs without a pop/R&B singer feature was in 2009/2010. I don't think Roddy will be the rapper to break this "thing".

Oh wow I didn't know that well then...but I have a question what number do you think the box will peak on radio?

I think 8-12 range.

[eidde]

Feb 1, 2020 13:21:30 GMT -5 mzumii said:

Feb 1, 2020 10:22:30 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Memories will probably #1 in Radio Songs:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/02/01

1(=) Post Malone - Circles 140.90(-0.24)
2(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 139.22(+1.20)
3(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 125.07(-0.29)
4(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 118.13(-0.54)
5(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 117.14(-1.14)
6(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 106.60(-1.72)
7(=) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 90.76(+0.78)
8(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 90.57(+1.61)
9(=) The Weeknd - Heartless 88.91(+1.06)
10(=) Maren Morris - The Bones 76.71(+0.60)

18(+1) DaBaby - BOP 60.31(+1.03)

22(+1) blackbear - hot girl bummer 56.93(+1.77)

32(+1) Roddy Ricch - The Box 45.97(+2.00)

34(=) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 44.60(+1.09)

43(+1) Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 36.95(+0.93)

46(+2) The Black Eyed Peas & J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 34.00(+0.81)

50(+6) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 31.93(+0.86)

-(-) Taylor Swift - The Man 3.47(+0.79)

If hot girl bummer keeps on gaining like this I think it might have a shot at the Hot 100 top 10

yeah, it apparently has insane radio callouts for some reason

[thegreatdivine]

Feb 1, 2020 13:35:01 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Feb 1, 2020 11:45:09 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I expected Wayne to have a better debut on Spotify US. His album might not crack 250K SPS.

Yeah, I mean obviously nobody should have expected another 40M+ debut since TCV came out under special circumstances, but at the very least I expected him to have more than one song over a million (and in the low millions, I should add). His total stream count (with a few songs left off) is 8.9 million.

I didn't expect huge numbers, too, but his first day Spotify figures are disappointing any way you look at it.

[korbel16]

Compared to tha carter V this is ... a flop..

[kcdawg13]

Feb 1, 2020 15:29:10 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Compared to tha carter V this is ... a flop..

I mean, his last record was considered his commercial comeback after 5 years of no album, in-fighting with Birdman, seizures and other bullshit he had to deal with. This new album wasn't ever gonna be as big, plus Wayne's album's that aren't titled Tha Carter always don't do well, even in his peak. 

Dude is still like 20 years in the game and pulling decent numbers, so good for him overall.

[shaz196]

Lil Wayne first week sales for Tha Carter series:
Tha Carter (2004) - 103k
Tha Carter II (2005) - 254K
Tha Carter III (2008) - 1 million
Tha Carter IV (2011) - 964k
Tha Carter V (2018) - 480k

First week sales for non-Carter titles:
Tha Block is Hot (1999) - 229k
Lights Out (2000) - 116k
500 Degreez (2002) - 103k
Rebirth (2010) - 176k
I Am Not a Human Being (2010) - 110k
I Am Not a Human Being II (2013) - 217k
Funeral (2020) - N/A

[violentdreams]

Feb 1, 2020 17:05:14 GMT -5 shaz196 said:

Lil Wayne first week sales for Tha Carter series:
Tha Carter (2004) - 103k
Tha Carter II (2005) - 254K
Tha Carter III (2008) - 1 million
Tha Carter IV (2011) - 964k
Tha Carter V (2018) - 480k

First week sales for non-Carter titles:
Tha Block is Hot (1999) - 229k
Lights Out (2000) - 116k
500 Degreez (2002) - 103k
Rebirth (2010) - 176k
I Am Not a Human Being (2010) - 110k
I Am Not a Human Being II (2013) - 217k
Funeral (2020) - N/A

The first week numbers for IANAHB are a bit misleading, because it was a digital exclusive album for its first two weeks. When it came out on CD, it sold another 125k copies, meaning it probably would have done well over 200k with a normal release. Of course, your general point is still correct lol.

[Lukas]

BILLBOARD HOT 100 02/08/2020 FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Rank	Song	Radio	Sales	On-Demand Streaming	Official You-Tube	Passive/UGC	Total Streaming	Weighted Streaming	Total Points
1	The Box	33,500,000	12,900	49,300,000	8,600,000	9,300,000	67,100,000	57,500,000	45,300
2	Life Is Good	24,000,000	6,600	31,100,000	10,000,000	5,000,000	46,200,000	39,300,000	30,700
3	Circles	101,900,000	12,200	14,100,000	700,000	4,400,000	19,200,000	15,900,000	27,200
4	Memories	100,300,000	14,100	9,700,000	1,200,000	6,700,000	17,600,000	13,400,000	25,600
5	Someone You Loved	87,500,000	14,800	11,000,000	500,000	7,500,000	19,100,000	14,600,000	24,700
6	10,000 Hours	89,100,000	10,000	11,800,000	1,100,000	4,900,000	17,800,000	14,700,000	24,200
7	Dance Monkey	52,600,000	18,800	16,200,000	2,000,000	6,000,000	24,200,000	19,800,000	23,900
8	Roxanne	64,900,000	6,700	16,500,000	800,000	5,900,000	23,200,000	18,900,000	23,000
9	Don't Start Now	67,700,000	13,100	11,800,000	900,000	3,200,000	15,800,000	13,300,000	20,700
10	Godzilla	1,800,000	13,000	25,800,000	700,000	3,800,000	30,300,000	26,700,000	20,200

OTHERS:
Everything I Wanted - 20,100
Lose You To Love Me - 19,800
BOP - 19,100
Ballin' - 18,900
Yummy - 18,400
Bad Guy - 18,100
High Fashion - 16,000
Blinding Lights - 15,900
Heartless - 15,700
Highest in the Room - 15,400

[chartfreak]

Yes at Don't Start Now in the top 10!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Spotify - 02/01/19

1(=) Roddy Ricch - The Box 3.085M
2(=) Future - Life is Good 1.824M
3(=) Eminem - Godzilla 1.350M
4(=) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 1.250M
5(=) Lil Wayne - I Do It 1.046M
6(+4) Trevor Daniel - Falling 1.014M
7(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 1.013M
8(=) YNW Melly - Suicidal 993K
9(=) Post Malone - Circles 973K
10(-4) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 940K

37(-8) Dua Lipa - Physical 560K
39(+5) Karol G - Tusa 552K
51(+10) Taylor Swift - Only the Young (Featured in Miss Americana) 488K
58(+5) Jack Harlow - WHAT'S POPPIN 447K