Hot 100 Weekly Top 10 Points Estimated

[fhas]

[fhas]

[fhas]

[fhas]

This is my 123rd week estimating the real points for the top 10 songs (July 1, 2017 - August 17, 2019 and January 25, 2020 - March 28, 2020).

Intentions, Someone You Loved and Everything I Wanted are the weakest songs in the top 10 in these 123 weeks.

Top 10 with less than 20,000 points:

Sep. 8, 2018 - God is a woman 19,800
Nov. 3, 2018 - Love Lies 19,900
Mar. 28, 2020 - Intentions 19,300
Mar. 28, 2020 - Someone You Loved 19,200
Mar. 28, 2020 - everything i wanted 19,000

It's also by far the biggest week for radio with 45.8% of the points. Before this week, the best percentage radio had was 40.0%.

[smallbubble]

Well, If the billboard decides to weigh down the radio to 35~40% of total points (would be around 50% for this week) to balance things out/reflect the actual situation, then the points of top 10 cut off would probably be around 15,000 points, pathetic number.
But it would actually represents how tragic this year has been for the world in general lul.

[mikerivera]

Well if Billboard didn’t keep on finding ways to devalue streaming, maybe the point totals would be higher.

[fhas]

[fhas]

[fhas]

Mar 29, 2020 10:23:52 GMT -5 fhas said:

This is my 123rd week estimating the real points for the top 10 songs (July 1, 2017 - August 17, 2019 and January 25, 2020 - March 28, 2020).

Intentions, Someone You Loved and Everything I Wanted are the weakest songs in the top 10 in these 123 weeks.

Top 10 with less than 20,000 points:

Sep. 8, 2018 - God is a woman 19,800
Nov. 3, 2018 - Love Lies 19,900
Mar. 28, 2020 - Intentions 19,300
Mar. 28, 2020 - Someone You Loved 19,200
Mar. 28, 2020 - everything i wanted 19,000

It's also by far the biggest week for radio with 45.8% of the points. Before this week, the best percentage radio had was 40.0%.

UPDATE:

Apr. 4, 2020 - Intentions 19,700
Apr. 4, 2020 - Say So 19,100
Apr. 4, 2020 - ROXANNE 19,000

ROXANNE is now the weakest #10 (July 1, 2017 - August 17, 2019 --- January 25, 2020 - April 4, 2020).

[fhas]

[fhas]

[fhas]

This week, Someone You Loved is the weakest #10 of the last three years and radio is the chart component with the most points in the top 10 for the first time in years (since the 2000s?).

[smallbubble]

I expect the numbers to continue their decline until the situation somehow stabilize in the US and people start to commute again.

[fhas]

[fhas]

[strongerq]

Hey fhas if Toosie Slide didn't exist and Someone You Loved was #10. What would radio percentage vs streaming percentage be? (if you have the stats for SYL ofc)

[fhas]

Apr 19, 2020 13:23:51 GMT -5 strongerq said:

Hey fhas if Toosie Slide didn't exist and Someone You Loved was #10. What would radio percentage vs streaming percentage be? (if you have the stats for SYL ofc)

Radio: 49.0%

Streaming: 45.3%

Sales: 5.7%

I had SYL at 3.6k sales, 62.0M airplay and 11.5M streams.

I tracked the top 24 songs from the past two weeks and in both weeks the top 24 was: radio 49%, streaming 45% and sales 6%.

[fhas]

[fhas]

[fhas]

[fhas]

[smallbubble]

Are u considering redo those calculation now as Tekashi might have leaked the actual point formula? (Never thought he would be helpful in that way lul)

[fhas]

May 16, 2020 1:35:19 GMT -5 smallbubble said:

Are u considering redo those calculation now as Tekashi might have leaked the actual point formula? (Never thought he would be helpful in that way lul)

I think so, but I'll need some time to do that because it's not easy. The formula I was using is really close to the actual formula that BB is using, so I'm thinking the results won't change that much.

[fhas]

[fhas]

[davidjl123]

May 16, 2020 16:40:57 GMT -5 fhas said:

.

The 39000 for Blinding Lights doesn't seem to match up with the percentage decrease listed

[fhas]

May 16, 2020 18:55:30 GMT -5 davidjl123 said:

May 16, 2020 16:40:57 GMT -5 fhas said:

.

The 39000 for Blinding Lights doesn't seem to match up with the percentage decrease listed

I didn't update the numbers for the chart dated as 5/2/20 here. I've adjusted the formula, but I'm going to update the previous weeks later.

Blinding Lights
May 2: 39,000 (36,900 using the old formula)
May 9: 39,000

[davidjl123]

May 16, 2020 19:00:18 GMT -5 fhas said:

May 16, 2020 18:55:30 GMT -5 davidjl123 said:

The 39000 for Blinding Lights doesn't seem to match up with the percentage decrease listed

I didn't update the numbers for the chart dated as 5/2/20 here. I've adjusted the formula, but I'm going to update the previous weeks later.

Blinding Lights
May 2: 39,000 (36,900 using the old formula)
May 9: 39,000

Ahh I forgot about the change

[Myth X]

Feb 10, 2020 23:17:18 GMT -5 fhas said:

Do you know why they didn't count any youtube views for Life is Good when it debuted?

[fhas]

May 17, 2020 8:49:01 GMT -5 Myth X said:

Feb 10, 2020 23:17:18 GMT -5 fhas said:

Do you know why they didn't count any youtube views for Life is Good when it debuted?

I don't know. I mean, according to HDD's Revenue Chart (very accurate) it had 52M from on-demand audio alone, so 50.7M overall is way too low and makes no sense. Also, in the second week they didn't count more than 90% of its video streams and fixed that "bug" in the third week where it gained 5% streams despite losing streams in all streaming services that report numbers to the public (Spotify, YouTube, Pandora).

This is still one of the strangest things I've ever seen on the charts.