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Post by violentdreams on Feb 15, 2020 9:36:24 GMT -5
I'm expecting 350k-400k for Bieber, 130k-150k for A Boogie, and 110k-130k for Tame Impala (could very well be higher, there's just not much reference for what their pure sales will look like).
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Feb 15, 2020 9:37:21 GMT -5
Not impressed by Boogie on Spotify but he does better on AM of course. Were you genuinely expecting him to do more than that? That's right in line with what Young Thug did on Spotify with So Much Fun. If anyone's Spotify debut is unimpressive it's Justin Bieber's, who had a smaller debut than Harry Styles despite having more tracks. Bieber will have two top tens from the album anyway though so the project overall is doing ok and also he will have great album sales nevertheless. Also: |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Feb 15, 2020 9:40:58 GMT -5
Not a single song from Tame Impala on AM wtf 124. Tame Impala - Breathe Deeper 134. Take Impala - One More Year 144. Tame Impala - Borderline 163. Tame Impala - Instant Destiny 178. Tame Impala - Posthumous Forgiveness 194. Tame Impala - Lost in Yesterday 217. Tame Impala - Tomorrow's Dust 246. Tame Impala - On Track 256. Tame Impala - Is It True 281. Tame Impala - It Might Be Time 355. Tame Impala - One More Hour 359. Tame Impala - Glimmer |
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thabb
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Post by thabb on Feb 15, 2020 9:42:12 GMT -5
… Blue day?
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dremolus - solarpunk
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𝙁𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙋𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙋𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨, 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙥 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙒𝙖𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙘
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Feb 15, 2020 9:42:17 GMT -5
Not a single song from Tame Impala on AM wtf 124. Tame Impala - Breathe Deeper 134. Take Impala - One More Year 144. Tame Impala - Borderline 163. Tame Impala - Instant Destiny 178. Tame Impala - Posthumous Forgiveness 194. Tame Impala - Lost in Yesterday 217. Tame Impala - Tomorrow's Dust 246. Tame Impala - On Track 256. Tame Impala - Is It True 281. Tame Impala - It Might Be Time 355. Tame Impala - One More Hour 359. Tame Impala - Glimmer Oh, glad to be wrong but still sad none of them are charting above #100. Would've really liked to see Borderline or Breathe Deeper or Lost in Yesterday chart |
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Feb 15, 2020 9:42:38 GMT -5
Impressive that Billie has the highest debut.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Feb 15, 2020 9:44:45 GMT -5
I'm expecting 350k-400k for Bieber, 130k-150k for A Boogie, and 110k-130k for Tame Impala (could very well be higher, there's just not much reference for what their pure sales will look like). Why are your predictions for Tame Impala so high? Their last album moved 50K units in it's debut week. The one before that moved 12K units. |
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dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
𝙁𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙋𝙖𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙋𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨, 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙥 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙒𝙖𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙘
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Feb 15, 2020 9:48:55 GMT -5
Does this mean we can finally say goodbye to Sucker, I Don't Care and Only Human?
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Post by violentdreams on Feb 15, 2020 9:53:41 GMT -5
I'm expecting 350k-400k for Bieber, 130k-150k for A Boogie, and 110k-130k for Tame Impala (could very well be higher, there's just not much reference for what their pure sales will look like). Why are your predictions for Tame Impala so high? Their last album moved 50K units in it's debut week. The one before that moved 12K units. Currents was the album that gave them the hype that they currently have. You can't compare it to where they are now because it'd be like erasing the almost five years of commercial growth that had occurred as a result of that album. |
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Post by Ratatouille on Feb 15, 2020 9:56:30 GMT -5
Eminem doing better numbers than Bieber is hilarious in 2020
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shaz196
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Post by shaz196 on Feb 15, 2020 9:57:49 GMT -5
Were you genuinely expecting him to do more than that? That's right in line with what Young Thug did on Spotify with So Much Fun. If anyone's Spotify debut is unimpressive it's Justin Bieber's, who had a smaller debut than Harry Styles despite having more tracks. Bieber will have two top tens from the album anyway though so the project overall is doing ok and also he will have great album sales nevertheless. That's true, A Boogie will also have the largest SPS debut of his career and possibly his first top 15 charting song in Numbers. The topic was unimpressive Spotify debuts though, A Boogie did what was expected there and JB underperformed. |
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Post by Ratatouille on Feb 15, 2020 9:59:12 GMT -5
For me Bieber will sell 130k in streaming and 200k in bundles
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strongerq
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Post by strongerq on Feb 15, 2020 10:02:49 GMT -5
Spotify Worldwide first day numbers Justin Bieber's whole catalog: 50.19M Lover: 54.89M Taylor Swift's entire catalog: 62.08M Music To Be Murdered By: 50.5M
Edit:
Monthly listeners don't mean s**t. It is the number of unique accounts that have listened at least 1 song in the past 28 days. Eminem had half the monthly listeners than Justin Bieber and got more streams than him so your point is ?
it is until 13 Feb btw
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Post by Ratatouille on Feb 15, 2020 10:07:11 GMT -5
Spotify Worldwide first day numbers Justin Bieber's whole catalog: 50.19M Lover: 54.89M Taylor Swift's entire catalog: 62.08M Music To Be Murdered By: 50.5M Eminem’s whole catalog: 66.76M |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Feb 15, 2020 10:11:15 GMT -5
I think what we will see with this new charting methodology is that it will be nearly impossible to debut at #1 (well, unless the tracking week for radio is adjusted to match the tracking week for sales and streaming). Also, it will be tougher for recurrent songs to re-enter the charts (except for Sucker and I Don't Care, lol). If Old Town Road could not enter the 2/15 chart, it is going to take the stars to perfectly align for a recurrent song (outside of Christmas songs) to re-enter the chart. As for Christmas songs, I think we will see less songs re-enter, and AIWFCIY will have a tougher time reaching #1 for the 2020-21 Holiday season. In fact, if the current methodology had been in place for the 2019-20 Holiday season, I doubt Heartless would gone to #1, and AIWFCIY would have not been #1 on the 12/21 and 12/28 charts (the 1/4 chart would have been a lot closer between Circles and AIWFCIY). Circles would have been a 6-7 week #1. I think it's gonna be easier to debut at #1 because first weeks are driven by sales, on-demand streams and official videos. UGC takes a few days/weeks to go viral and have impact on the charts (In My Feelings is the best example).
Christmas songs are mostly driven by on-demand and programmed streams, I'm not sure if the UGC rule is gonna impact those songs. AIWFCIY is the only Christmas song that reaches 5M on YouTube in a week.
I disagree with it being easier to debut at #1, only because of how the tracking week is currently structured. Also, radio is now weighed heavier. With a little bit of radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, a song can enter the chart on the lower regions (ME! is a good example). For a song to debut at #1, as the tracking week is currently structured, it would need to have the sales and streaming of ME!, while being non-existent on radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of that tracking week. (Maybe a big artist, like Adele or Drake, releasing on a Monday, rather than a Friday, could do the trick.) Keep in mind, we haven't had a #1 since Sucker, and that was nearly one year ago. I expect that to continue, unless the tracking week for radio is changed, to align with sales and streaming. |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Feb 15, 2020 10:14:50 GMT -5
I think it's gonna be easier to debut at #1 because first weeks are driven by sales, on-demand streams and official videos. UGC takes a few days/weeks to go viral and have impact on the charts (In My Feelings is the best example).
Christmas songs are mostly driven by on-demand and programmed streams, I'm not sure if the UGC rule is gonna impact those songs. AIWFCIY is the only Christmas song that reaches 5M on YouTube in a week.
I disagree with it being easier to debut at #1, only because of how the tracking week is currently structured. Also, radio is now weighed heavier. With a little bit of radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, a song can enter the chart on the lower regions (ME! is a good example). For a song to debut at #1, as the tracking week is currently structured, it would need to have the sales and streaming of ME!, while being non-existent on radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of that tracking week. (Maybe a big artist, like Adele or Drake, releasing on a Monday, rather than a Friday, could do the trick.) Keep in mind, we haven't had a #1 since Sucker, and that was nearly one year ago. I expect that to continue, unless the tracking week for radio is changed, to align with sales and streaming. I think you meant debut at #1, but Highest in the Room? |
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lurker2
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Posts: 690
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Post by lurker2 on Feb 15, 2020 10:18:49 GMT -5
I think it's gonna be easier to debut at #1 because first weeks are driven by sales, on-demand streams and official videos. UGC takes a few days/weeks to go viral and have impact on the charts (In My Feelings is the best example).
Christmas songs are mostly driven by on-demand and programmed streams, I'm not sure if the UGC rule is gonna impact those songs. AIWFCIY is the only Christmas song that reaches 5M on YouTube in a week.
I disagree with it being easier to debut at #1, only because of how the tracking week is currently structured. Also, radio is now weighed heavier. With a little bit of radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, a song can enter the chart on the lower regions (ME! is a good example). For a song to debut at #1, as the tracking week is currently structured, it would need to have the sales and streaming of ME!, while being non-existent on radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of that tracking week. (Maybe a big artist, like Adele or Drake, releasing on a Monday, rather than a Friday, could do the trick.) Keep in mind, we haven't had a #1 since Sucker, and that was nearly one year ago. I expect that to continue, unless the tracking week for radio is changed, to align with sales and streaming. Didn’t HITR debut at number one? And Heartless and LYTLM would’ve if it weren’t for them debuting in the middle of the tracking week. |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Feb 15, 2020 10:19:52 GMT -5
I think it's gonna be easier to debut at #1 because first weeks are driven by sales, on-demand streams and official videos. UGC takes a few days/weeks to go viral and have impact on the charts (In My Feelings is the best example). Christmas songs are mostly driven by on-demand and programmed streams, I'm not sure if the UGC rule is gonna impact those songs. AIWFCIY is the only Christmas song that reaches 5M on YouTube in a week.
I disagree with it being easier to debut at #1, only because of how the tracking week is currently structured. Also, radio is now weighed heavier. With a little bit of radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, a song can enter the chart on the lower regions (ME! is a good example). For a song to debut at #1, as the tracking week is currently structured, it would need to have the sales and streaming of ME!, while being non-existent on radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of that tracking week. (Maybe a big artist, like Adele or Drake, releasing on a Monday, rather than a Friday, could do the trick.) Keep in mind, we haven't had a #1 since Sucker, and that was nearly one year ago. I expect that to continue, unless the tracking week for radio is changed, to align with sales and streaming. Highest In The Room debuted at #1 in October with 59M streams (47M on-demand). Taylor and Adele are the only artists that sometimes debut earlier with airplay only and that's not gonna change soon. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Feb 15, 2020 10:30:44 GMT -5
Why are your predictions for Tame Impala so high? Their last album moved 50K units in it's debut week. The one before that moved 12K units. Currents was the album that gave them the hype that they currently have. You can't compare it to where they are now because it'd be like erasing the almost five years of commercial growth that had occurred as a result of that album. Still, I think you're overestimating their figures, especially with how poorly they're performing on streaming. |
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Post by violentdreams on Feb 15, 2020 10:34:00 GMT -5
Currents was the album that gave them the hype that they currently have. You can't compare it to where they are now because it'd be like erasing the almost five years of commercial growth that had occurred as a result of that album. Still, I think you're overestimating their figures, especially with how poorly they're performing on streaming. I'm not sure why you're so opposed to the idea of them doing over 100k when Vampire Weekend did 130k less than a year ago with substantially less streaming lol. Do you think they have no dedicated fanbase or something? |
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on Feb 15, 2020 10:36:07 GMT -5
Well the Spotify Update was indeed a bloodbath tommorow is red-day so by Monday things should go back to normal.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Feb 15, 2020 10:39:03 GMT -5
I disagree with it being easier to debut at #1, only because of how the tracking week is currently structured. Also, radio is now weighed heavier. With a little bit of radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, a song can enter the chart on the lower regions (ME! is a good example). For a song to debut at #1, as the tracking week is currently structured, it would need to have the sales and streaming of ME!, while being non-existent on radio on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of that tracking week. (Maybe a big artist, like Adele or Drake, releasing on a Monday, rather than a Friday, could do the trick.) Keep in mind, we haven't had a #1 since Sucker, and that was nearly one year ago. I expect that to continue, unless the tracking week for radio is changed, to align with sales and streaming. Didn’t HITR debut at number one? And Heartless and LYTLM would’ve if it weren’t for them debuting in the middle of the tracking week. I almost forgot about HITR, but I think that was before the new methodology. As for Heartless and LYTLM, it depends on the day of release. Remember, they had some huge first and second day radio numbers. If they were released the previous Friday (maybe even Saturday), they would have debuted on the lower end of the previous chart based on the radio, just like ME! If they were released on Sunday or Monday, they would have probably would have debuted straight at #1. |
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2020 11:24:32 GMT -5
Ready for my premature goodbye to "Sucker", "I Don't Care", "Truth Hurts", and "Only Human". If the album bombs can anticipate "Señorita" and "No Guidance" 's exits on the charts, I would be most grateful as well. 😊
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Post by thegreatdivine on Feb 15, 2020 11:37:50 GMT -5
Still, I think you're overestimating their figures, especially with how poorly they're performing on streaming. I'm not sure why you're so opposed to the idea of them doing over 100k when Vampire Weekend did 130k less than a year ago with substantially less streaming lol. Do you think they have no dedicated fanbase or something? I know they have a dedicated fanbase. They're going to be playing arenas on their 2020 tour. I hope they do the numbers you're predicting, I just don't think they'll pull it off. I hope I'm proven wrong. |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Feb 15, 2020 11:39:09 GMT -5
Didn’t HITR debut at number one? And Heartless and LYTLM would’ve if it weren’t for them debuting in the middle of the tracking week. I almost forgot about HITR, but I think that was before the new methodology. As for Heartless and LYTLM, it depends on the day of release. Remember, they had some huge first and second day radio numbers. If they were released the previous Friday (maybe even Saturday), they would have debuted on the lower end of the previous chart based on the radio, just like ME! If they were released on Sunday or Monday, they would have probably would have debuted straight at #1. Last year, ME! debuted at #100 with 36.9M airplay. If you "convert" that to 2020 numbers - to adjust for YouTube's downweighting on the Hot 100 - it's 33.2M airplay.
LYTLM and Heartless had 24.2M and 26.2M audience (respectively) in their first 10 days.
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Feb 15, 2020 12:03:57 GMT -5
Ready for my premature goodbye to "Sucker", "I Don't Care", "Truth Hurts", and "Only Human". If the album bombs can anticipate "Señorita" and "No Guidance" 's exits on the charts, I would be most grateful as well. 😊 i think no guidance is safe |
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atg
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Post by atg on Feb 15, 2020 12:08:50 GMT -5
ya'll dont realize how insane this week is gonna be for music on streaming. billie, future, justin bieber, drake, travis scott, da baby, even lil baby and a boogie.... literally all huge streaming forces. Of course this has to happen with the first leap year charting week in 22 years This week could create a whole mess like the christmas music |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Feb 15, 2020 12:50:14 GMT -5
^Make that in 28 years. Next one would be in 2048.
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Post by lostinhavana on Feb 15, 2020 12:53:17 GMT -5
hoping Tame Impala has enough staying power to knock off one of the Panic! Songs from the top 2 of hot rock songs
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spicymapping
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ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on Feb 15, 2020 13:23:20 GMT -5
hoping Tame Impala has enough staying power to knock off one of the Panic! Songs from the top 2 of hot rock songs That is, if Joji doesn't do it this week. |
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