Billboard 200 2/29: Justin Bieber #1 with 231k/126k

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/articles/business/chart-beat/8551159/justin-bieber-changes-billboard-200-debut-forecast?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR02jMd936cO6qaOiX7Ty_jv9aKwz9ZXGMnDTSVUVmNa914o1dn6KuZAFGU

Justin Bieber's 'Changes' Album Set for No. 1 Debut on Billboard 200 Chart
2/16/2020 by Keith Caulfield

Justin Bieber is on course for his seventh No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart, as industry forecasters suggest his latest effort, Changes, should bow atop next week’s tally (dated Feb. 29). The set was released on Friday, Feb. 14 via SchoolBoy/Raymond Braun/Def Jam Recordings.

After only two full days of activity, prognosticators suggest Changes could earn around 250,000 equivalent album units in the U.S. in the week ending Feb. 20. That number could climb higher, especially considering Bieber has a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer in play with his upcoming arena tour, as well as an array of merchandise/album bundles available via his official webstore. Sales generated from both offers could increase as the week progresses.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the Feb. 29-dated Billboard 200 chart (where Changes is expected to debut at No. 1) is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s website on Sunday, Feb. 23.

If Changes charges in at No. 1, it will mark Bieber’s seventh leader on the Billboard 200. He previously hit No. 1 with Purpose (2015), Believe: Acoustic (2013), Believe (2012), Under the Mistletoe (2011), Never Say Never: The Remixes (2011) and My World 2.0 (2010).

Other albums set for significant debuts on next week’s chart include A Boogie Wit da Hoodie’s Artist 2.0, Tame Impala’s Slow Rush and Monsta X’s It’s All About Luv.

[thegreatdivine]

I knew that 320K prediction was generous. This might not do more than 260K at the end of the tracking week, which is well over less than half of what his last album did.

[kierz7]

His album is outright BOMBING!

Ticket + Merch Bundles... and he’s doing less than Jo. Bros. & Harry Styles, and his ‘stadium’ tour is flopping?

Another 2010’s Pop Star off the grid in the 2020’s. ✔️

[violentdreams]

Feb 17, 2020 5:40:00 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I knew that 320K prediction was generous. This might not do more than 260K at the end of the tracking week, which is well over less than half of what his last album did.

It says that it isn't counting the concert ticket bundles yet, so it'll probably still wind up over 300k.

[wavey.]

Feb 17, 2020 9:03:29 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Feb 17, 2020 5:40:00 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I knew that 320K prediction was generous. This might not do more than 260K at the end of the tracking week, which is well over less than half of what his last album did.

It says that it isn't counting the concert ticket bundles yet, so it'll probably still wind up over 300k.

Exactly. That's why they should hold off on posting these articles.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Anyway, I foresee at least one article to update the numbers and more if the forecasts change significantly that.

[candypaint]

Lol

[shayonce]

this was based on like 2 days, so I will wait for next update.
but considering his massive tour bundle, he should do at least 400k. like.. as bare minimum.
unless his tour is bombing.

[Gary]

The 250 is a projected number for the week based on two days. Unless they are grossly off on projections, jumping straight to 400k is unlikely.

[NeRD]

That's awful considering he also has bundles.


Looks to be doing poorly internationally as well.

[shayonce]

Feb 17, 2020 13:02:24 GMT -5 Gary said:

The 250 is a projected number for the week based on two days. Unless they are grossly off on projections, jumping straight to 400k is unlikely.

well. it's bundles. unpredictable.
and I mean he would do at least 400k "If his Tour was doing well".

apparently 2 stadium dates are canceled, I checked rose bowl date and they're.. really bad.
so I assume his tour is flopping, so no big bundle sales are coming in.
yeah.. it won't do much.

[nickd]

His Spotify streams are decreasing relatively quickly compared to other album bombs. That doesn't mean much for the bundles but the SEA predictions might have to get downgraded a bit.

[thegreatdivine]

I don't see him doing up to 300K SPS by the end of the tracking week. The tour is bombing. It's performing really poorly on streaming and there's a general disinterest in the album.

[Choco]

2020 is really the year album bombs stop being a thing huh? A few have underperformed so far.

But none of the acts are on their peaks so it's probably more that rather than the market.

[upsidedown]

Don't see why thy wouldn't include bundles? Every time they do a projection they also count the bundles, just like with Louis and Kesha a few weeks ago. Though the tour is outright bombing so it probably won't help that much.

[strongerq]

Feb 18, 2020 7:23:26 GMT -5 upsidedown said:

Don't see why thy wouldn't include bundles? Every time they do a projection they also count the bundles, just like with Louis and Kesha a few weeks ago. Though the tour is outright bombing so it probably won't help that much.

They are counting the bundles

That number could climb higher, especially considering Bieber has a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer in play with his upcoming arena tour, as well as an array of merchandise/album bundles available via his official webstore. Sales generated from both offers could increase as the week progresses.

I don't know where a lot of you are getting the idea that the bundles aren't counted, they are. When they do a prediction and they think the bundles would do 50K-100K (random numbers), they will use the 50K in their prediction because you always take the worst case scenario. They say that sales from the bundles could increase because bundles are unpredictable - especially tour bundles which depends on the fans interest in the tour.

Edit: I bolded the word "increase" because 5 people in this thread commented that the bundles aren't counted, when in fact they are. How can something increase if it doesn't exist. The sales could very well decrease too - everything is within the realm of possibility.

[Choco]

Is this the first time some of you follow album sales predictions?

It's like when someone does SNL on album release week and people expect that to not be factored into the initial predictions. Unless something weird happens (i.e. "fans pls buy my cassette exclusive that includes a sample of my blood and 66 new tracks" on the last day of tracking or something like that) initial predictions are fairly accurate and don't change much.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie, Tame Impala & Monsta X Aiming for Top 10 Debuts on Billboard 200 Albums Chart

2/18/2020 by Keith Caulfield 

While Justin Bieber’s Changes is set for a No. 1 debut on next week’s Billboard 200 chart (dated Feb. 29), three more albums are aiming for top 10 bows: A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie’s Artist 2.0, Tame Impala’s The Slow Rush and Monsta X’s All About Luv, according to industry forecasters.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week based on multi-metric consumption, which includes traditional album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). The top 10 of the Feb. 29-dated Billboard 200 chart (where Changes is expected to debut at No. 1) is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s website on Sunday, Feb. 23.

Changes may enter at No. 1 with around 250,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending Feb. 20, according to prognosticators. That number could go higher, as Bieber has a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer in play with his upcoming arena tour, as well as an array of merchandise/album bundles available via his official webstore. Sales generated from both offers could increase as the week progresses.

As for A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie’s Artist 2.0, the album could start at No. 2 with perhaps 110,000 equivalent album units (or more), mostly driven by streaming activity. The rapper’s last album, Hoodie SZN, debuted at No. 2 on the Jan. 5, 2019-dated list with 90,000 units earned, according to Nielsen Music/MRC Data. It reached No. 1 in its third week on the list (Jan. 19).

Rock act Tame Impala may log its highest charting album yet, as The Slow Rush could debut at No. 3 next week, with between 90,000 and 100,000 equivalent album units earned. Like Changes, The Slow Rush is also getting a boost from a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer. Tame Impala’s last album, Currents, debuted and peaked at No. 4 on the Aug. 8, 2015-dated list and stands as the act’s highest-charting album. Currents launched with 50,000 units in its first week.

South Korean pop group Monsta X may also bow in the top 10 next week with its first English-language album, All About Luv. Forecasters suggest it may start with around 50,000 equivalent album units earned, mostly from album sales. All About Luv will also benefit from a concert ticket/album sale redemption offer, as well as an array of merchandise/album bundles sold via the act’s official webstore.

[Enigma.]

Artist 2.0 must be the lamest name for an album after LM5 (Little Mix album) and all self titled albums.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Actually, you forgot about My World 2.0.

[Gary]

The breaking news about Pop Smoke might shake things a bit here

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^It doesn't seem that Apple Music's updates are reflecting that yet.

[Gary]

It is still fairly new

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Meet the Woo 2 already up to #4 in Apple Music, while Meet the Woo is at #24.

[Love Plastic Love]

This is actually pretty shockingly bad for Justin considering he has multiple bundle deals with his tour and merch and stuff. The deals are usually the thing that helps boost numbers into a respectable or even great number range. Like, how bad would he be doing without the deals, yikes.

He has a few good singles on the cd though, much better than the first single so we will see what happens.

[Naos]

Feb 19, 2020 7:52:58 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Artist 2.0 must be the lamest name for an album after LM5 (Little Mix album) and all self titled albums.

Lukas Graham even has two self-titled albums. 

[kcdawg13]

I think Purpose was a moment, it was during a messy time in his life, the media was against him and that record was his triumphant return. Purpose was Bieber's transition from teen idol to an actual adult musician. Despite being the follow-up, I think Changes is just another album, it isn't a huge moment for him (Like dude barely hyped it up compared to Purpose). So it kind of makes sense why it's bombing.

Doesn't help that Purpose already had 2 huge singles by the time the album was released while Changes has zero, also the 5 year wait. The music industry forgets really fast. Only really big artists like Beyonce, Adele or Rihanna can take long breaks and come back successfully.

Overall I don't think Changes is doing that bad like everyone thinks, Bieber is just naturally aging with time. He's not the hottest star anymore, which makes sense. He's been around for over a decade at this point.

[nickd]

Feb 19, 2020 15:34:08 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think Purpose was a moment, it was during a messy time in his life, the media was against him and that record was his triumphant return. Purpose was Bieber's transition from teen idol to an actual adult musician. Despite being the follow-up, I think Changes is just another album, it isn't a huge moment for him (Like dude barely hyped it up compared to Purpose). So it kind of makes sense why it's bombing.

Doesn't help that Purpose already had 2 huge singles by the time the album was released while Changes has zero, also the 5 year wait. The music industry forgets really fast. Only really big artists like Beyonce, Adele or Rihanna can take long breaks and come back successfully.

Overall I don't think Changes is doing that bad like everyone thinks, Bieber is just naturally aging with time. He's not the hottest star anymore, which makes sense. He's been around for over a decade at this point.

Do you think it's on Justin and his team that it wasn't being hyped up or just the media/GP that weren't amplifying his attempts to hype it up? There was a bunch of promo for Yummy, he's doing that one week thing with James Corden on the Late Late Show, the Youtube documentary, paying a bunch of influencers and artists to help promo him, plus a bunch of bundles and incentives to buy physical/deluxe editions for collectors.

[iggyamo]

Feb 19, 2020 17:13:11 GMT -5 nickd said:

Feb 19, 2020 15:34:08 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think Purpose was a moment, it was during a messy time in his life, the media was against him and that record was his triumphant return. Purpose was Bieber's transition from teen idol to an actual adult musician. Despite being the follow-up, I think Changes is just another album, it isn't a huge moment for him (Like dude barely hyped it up compared to Purpose). So it kind of makes sense why it's bombing.

Doesn't help that Purpose already had 2 huge singles by the time the album was released while Changes has zero, also the 5 year wait. The music industry forgets really fast. Only really big artists like Beyonce, Adele or Rihanna can take long breaks and come back successfully.

Overall I don't think Changes is doing that bad like everyone thinks, Bieber is just naturally aging with time. He's not the hottest star anymore, which makes sense. He's been around for over a decade at this point.

Do you think it's on Justin and his team that it wasn't being hyped up or just the media/GP that weren't amplifying his attempts to hype it up? There was a bunch of promo for Yummy, he's doing that one week thing with James Corden on the Late Late Show, the Youtube documentary, paying a bunch of influencers and artists to help promo him, plus a bunch of bundles and incentives to buy physical/deluxe editions for collectors.

It’s entirely the gp, this amount of promotion would cause R Kelly to have a charting hit again. The one thing I will say the album succeeded in was making in inescapable, it’s just they don’t care

[Deleted]

Feb 19, 2020 15:22:14 GMT -5 Naos said:

Feb 19, 2020 7:52:58 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Artist 2.0 must be the lamest name for an album after LM5 (Little Mix album) and all self titled albums.

Lukas Graham even has two self-titled albums. 

Weezer says hello.