14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jul 10, 2020 14:52:14 GMT -5
(July 10, 2020) Not sure what this show will look like this year, seeing as the ACMs are in September and the CMTs are in October. The pandemic almost definitely will not be resolved by the time November rolls around — at least not resolved enough to allow 15,000 people to sit in Bridgestone to host an awards show. But, FYC ads are circulating and nominations are being determined.
Also, no word on what’s going to happen with hosts for the show this year, now that Carrie Underwood has confirmed she will not be returning after 12 years.
Lots of unknowns this year. Let the speculating & nomination predictions commence for what will undoubtedly be a very weird year. Remember, when in doubt, just assume Garth Brooks will win EOTY again. 🤷🏻♂️
(November 8, 2020) Hosts: Reba & Darius Rucker Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2020 @ 8pm/7c
Nominees Entertainer: Eric Church, Luke Combs, Miranda Lambert, Carrie Underwood, Keith Urban Male: Eric Church, Luke Combs Thomas Rhett, Chris Stapleton, Keith Urban Female: Miranda Lambert, Ashley McBryde, Maren Morris, Kacey Musgraves, Carrie Underwood Duo: Brooks & Dunn, Brothers Osborne, Dan + Shay, Florida Georgia Line, Maddie + Tae Group: Lady A, Little Big Town, Midland, Old Dominion, Rascal Flatts New Artist: Jimmie Allen, Ingrid Andress, Gabby Barrett, Carly Pearce, Morgan Wallen Album: Heartache Medication, Jon Pardi; Never Will, Ashley McBryde; Old Dominion, Old Dominion; What You See is What You Get, Luke Combs; Wildcard, Miranda Lambert Song: "Bluebird," Miranda Lambert; "The Bones," Maren Morris; "Even Though I'm Leaving," Luke Combs; "I Hope You're Happy Now," Carly Pearce/Lee Brice; "More Hearts Than Mine," Ingrid Andress Single: "10,000 Hours," Dan + Shay/Justin Bieber; "Beer Never Broke My Heart," Luke Combs; "Bluebird," Miranda Lambert; "The Bones," Maren Morris; "I Hope," Gabby Barrett Musical Event: "10,000 Hours," Dan + Shay/Justin Bieber; "Be A Light," Thomas Rhett/Reba/Hillary Scott/Chris Tomlin/Keith Urban; "The Bones," Maren Morris/Hozier; "Fooled Around and Fell in Love," Miranda Lambert/Maren Morris/Elle King/Ashley McBryde/Caylee Hammack/Tenille Townes; "I Hope You're Happy Now," Carly Pearce/Lee Brice Video: "10,000 Hours," Dan + Shay/Justin Bieber; "Bluebird," Miranda Lambert; "Homemade," Jake Owen; "I Hope You're Happy Now," Carly Pearce/Lee Brice; "Second One to Know," Chris Stapleton Musician: Jenee Fleenor, Paul Franklin, Rob McNelley, Ilya Toshinsky, Derek Wells Willie Nelson LTA: Charley Pride
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jul 10, 2020 14:58:44 GMT -5
Thoughts on some categories... -EOTY: Maren Morris and Miranda Lambert both deserve nominations. Maren deserves to win the whole dang thing. Garth will likely be nominated again. -Album: Miranda Lambert should take this. Would love to see The Highwomen sneak in. -Group: Curious to see if Lady A makes it in despite a successful album era thus far, given the massive lawsuit drama happening right now, right at the time of nominations. Also, The Highwomen pls [2]. -Duo: Not that Dan + Shay aren’t already a lock, but I’d like to see some Maddie & Tae love in here. Would love for them to eventually threaten the men that have ruled this category ever since Sugarland used to reign. -Female: Not that I don’t expect it to be another year of Kelsea/Maren/Miranda/Kacey/Carrie, but I’d love to see a left-of-center choice like Yola or Mickey Guyton get in there. (Yeah I know that’s asking for too much.) -New Artist: Pray that the CMAs adhere to progression and give this to Mickey Guyton. I have little faith that they will, but I’d like to think she has a solid chance at a nomination, at the very least. I’m sure we’ll see Gabby Barrett and maybe even Tenille Townes, too. Hopefully a very female-heavy category this year. -Single/Song: “Bluebird” + “The Bones.” Don’t care which takes which.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 10, 2020 15:26:17 GMT -5
Thoughts on some categories... -EOTY: Maren Morris and Miranda Lambert both deserve nominations. Maren deserves to win the whole dang thing. Garth will likely be nominated again. -Album: Miranda Lambert should take this. Would love to see The Highwomen sneak in. -Group: Curious to see if Lady A makes it in despite a successful album era thus far, given the massive lawsuit drama happening right now, right at the time of nominations. Also, The Highwomen pls [2]. -Duo: Not that Dan + Shay aren’t already a lock, but I’d like to see some Maddie & Tae love in here. Would love for them to eventually threaten the men that have ruled this category ever since Sugarland used to reign. -Female: Not that I don’t expect it to be another year of Kelsea/Maren/Miranda/Kacey/Carrie, but I’d love to see a left-of-center choice like Yola or Mickey Guyton get in there. (Yeah I know that’s asking for too much.) -New Artist: Pray that the CMAs adhere to progression and give this to Mickey Guyton. I have little faith that they will, but I’d like to think she has a solid chance at a nomination, at the very least. I’m sure we’ll see Gabby Barrett and maybe even Tenille Townes, too. Hopefully a very female-heavy category this year. -Single/Song: “Bluebird” + “The Bones.” Don’t care which takes which. I mean in regards to whether Lady A gets in, can you find a 5th group that can feasibly replace them, since I imagine the noms would be Midland, Little Big Town, Old Dominion, The Highwomen, and Lady A. Maybe Rascal Flatts replaces them or Runaway June but I am struggling to see who would be the 5th in exchange. I actually also think if the CMAs were to nominate a black artist for New Artist they would do Jimmie Allen before Mickey Guyton since he has had a bit more success. I do think we will see a couple of females in New Artist like Gabby Barrett and Ingrid Andress, but I don't think Mickey Guyton has great odds of getting the nomination especially since other male artists like Morgan Wallen, Matt Stell, Jordan Davis, and I think even Kane Brown are eligible for New Artist.
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jab820
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Post by jab820 on Jul 10, 2020 19:46:52 GMT -5
New Artist is always the category I'm most interested in. Here's the last two years' nominees for a refresher:
2019: Ashley McBryde (winner) Midland (ineligible) Carly Pearce Morgan Wallen Cody Johnson
2018: Luke Combs (winner) Lauren Alaina (ineligible) Chris Janson Brett Young (ineligible) Midland
Out of the previously-nominated people who are still eligible, it seems most likely Carly Pearce and Morgan Wallen would be considered again. I wouldn't consider Carly as a lock, but I definitely would Morgan and think he could even win the whole thing. Cody Johnson hasn't been buzzing like he was last year and Chris Janson just cannot be considered new anymore at this point.
ACM Nominees for the men are Morgan Wallen, Riley Green, Russell Dickerson, Jordan Davis, and Cody Johnson. For the women, we have Gabby Barrett, Ingrid Andress, Tenille Townes, Lindsay Ell, and Caylee Hammack.
Looking at the ACM Nominees along with previous CMA nominees, I think we will have 5/5 be names already listed here. I suppose (as mentioned) that names like Matt Stell, Kane Brown (highly doubt this) or Jimmie Allen could sneak in. But, if I had to predict, I'd say it'll be --
Ingrid Andress Gabby Barrett Morgan Wallen Carly Pearce Russell Dickerson/Jordan Davis
Morgan Wallen seems like the obvious winner but I could definitely see Ingrid Andress winning or even Carly Pearce especially after IHYHN.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jul 11, 2020 18:29:30 GMT -5
On New Artist, I doubt both Ingrid and Gabby get in with them both being female and on Warner Bros.
I think Morgan and Carly after IHYHN are locks. Carly will be the focus of the push from BMLG and Morgan has too much success to not consider him a lock.
I think I'm going to go:
Morgan Wallen Carly Pearce Jordan Davis Gabby Barrett Riley Green/Russell Dickerson
Morgan or Carly are the likely winners - I would think Carly would be more of the critic's choice, but Morgan's massive success with Whiskey Glasses and Chasin' You might be too much to ignore. With a critic's fave (Ashley McBryde) getting the nod last year, I'd probably lean more towards Morgan making it happen.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jul 11, 2020 19:59:48 GMT -5
Female will probably be Carrie/Miranda/Kelsea/Maren/Kacey but I’d love to see Ashley McBryde get in there (and win tbh) or Ingrid. Great year for the women all around, should be an interesting year.
Male will hopefully be Luke C./Eric/Morgan/Thomas/Blake with Luke C. winning hopefully. Jason and/or Luke B. will get in there over Morgan & Eric though.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 11, 2020 20:13:21 GMT -5
I do think Ashley McBryde could easily replace Kacey Musgraves in Female since Ashley McBryde is having her big radio breakthrough this year with "One Night Standards" and released a critically acclaimed album within the past year. I do love Kacey Musgraves but she has been pretty inactive overall this year (Pandemic certainly did not help).
I could also see Warner pushing more for Ingrid Andress for New artist over Gabby Barrett since I think Ingrid Andress is more of a critic darling like Kacey/Ashley compared to Gabby Barrett (both women are talented I just think Ingrid strikes more of a critic chord than Gabby Barrett)
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 12, 2020 0:25:14 GMT -5
Kacey Musgraves kept a pretty low profile the past year following the end of the Golden Hour era, so I think either Carly Pearce or Ashley McBryde could easily replace her in the Female category.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2020 0:47:02 GMT -5
Kacey Musgraves kept a pretty low profile the past year following the end of the Golden Hour era, so I think either Carly Pearce or Ashley McBryde could easily replace her in the Female category. But Kacey won FV last year at the CMA’s....Has an artist that won the year before ever not been nominated the next year? Someone should look that up lol.
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Post by tim on Jul 12, 2020 0:59:52 GMT -5
Kacey Musgraves kept a pretty low profile the past year following the end of the Golden Hour era, so I think either Carly Pearce or Ashley McBryde could easily replace her in the Female category. But Kacey won FV last year at the CMA’s....Has an artist that won the year before ever not been nominated the next year? Someone should look that up lol. You’d have to go back to Alison Krauss winning in 1995 and not being nominated the following year (she was subsequently nominated in 2002). That said, these are not normal times for the industry and I agree with .indulgecountry that Carly Pearce or Ashley McBryde are more likely to be nominated than Kacey.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2020 2:42:06 GMT -5
But Kacey won FV last year at the CMA’s....Has an artist that won the year before ever not been nominated the next year? Someone should look that up lol. You’d have to go back to Alison Krauss winning in 1995 and not being nominated the following year (she was subsequently nominated in 2002). That said, these are not normal times for the industry and I agree with .indulgecountry that Carly Pearce or Ashley McBryde are more likely to be nominated than Kacey. Kelsea deserves to be nominated over Kacey this year without a doubt, but we can’t ignore the voting blocks. She’s on a small label and I think UMG will want to keep Kacey’s name out there because I really believe they are gonna go hard at country radio with her next single. I can definitely see Carrie Miranda Maren Kacey Kelsea/ Ashley / Carly / Gabby
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Post by tim on Jul 12, 2020 2:48:58 GMT -5
You’d have to go back to Alison Krauss winning in 1995 and not being nominated the following year (she was subsequently nominated in 2002). That said, these are not normal times for the industry and I agree with .indulgecountry that Carly Pearce or Ashley McBryde are more likely to be nominated than Kacey. Kelsea deserves to be nominated over Kacey this year without a doubt, but we can’t ignore the voting blocks. She’s on a small label and I think UMG will want to keep Kacey’s name out there because I really believe they are gonna go hard at country radio with her next single. I can definitely see Carrie Miranda Maren Kacey Kelsea/ Ashley / Carly / Gabby Kacey has never necessarily placated to the industry, so while I could justify a nomination for her I hardly expect one. My predictions: Maren Morris (likely winner) Miranda Lambert Carrie Underwood Carly Pearce Ashley McBryde Other: Gabby Barrett or Kelsea Ballerini
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Post by tim on Jul 12, 2020 2:55:55 GMT -5
Oh and regarding Kelsea, I just think her recent era has been a bit mismanaged and therefore she’s unlikely to receive a nomination this year.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jul 12, 2020 12:51:13 GMT -5
Didn’t Kacey have the back half of her OWAW II Tour + her Christmas special? Radio hits aren’t everything; I think the category will look the same as last year.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 12, 2020 13:02:49 GMT -5
Didn’t Kacey have the back half of her OWAW II Tour + her Christmas special? Radio hits aren’t everything; I think the category will look the same as last year. I mean that tour ended in late Spetember so it would only be a couple months of that plus the Christmas special, and while impressive I am very unsure if that is enough. Radio hits aren't everything, but I want to think with more women getting radio hits this past year like Carly Pearce and Ashley McBryde in addition to the usual suspects like Carrie Underwood, Maren Morris and Miranda Lambert having a comeback with "Bluebird" that all 5 nominees will be female artists who were successful at radio. I feel like in a year where a decent chunk of the time for the awards was in pandemic I feel like radio hits also do hold more value in looking at nominees since touring was essentially null from March onwards and radio/charts were pretty much the only thing for country music the last few months. You can very easily be right but I wouldn't be shocked if Kacey is off the ballot this year.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 12, 2020 14:07:06 GMT -5
I could see Kacey still getting a nom on the basis that she won last year + that her label may advocate for her getting a spot, but I don't think she should be in there this year when we have several alternatives. In years past, there'd be times where 1 or 2 of the nominees would just be placeholders, but there's actually been enough females with success lately that a deserving woman or two might not be nominated. There'a a chance Kelsea may not be in there either, as tim said.
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jab820
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Post by jab820 on Jul 12, 2020 14:45:16 GMT -5
I could see Kacey still getting a nom on the basis that she won last year + that her label may advocate for her getting a spot, but I don't think she should be in there this year when we have several alternatives. In years past, there'd be times where 1 or 2 of the nominees would just be placeholders, but there's actually been enough females with success lately that a deserving woman or two might not be nominated. There'a a chance Kelsea may not be in there either, as tim said. It has been really sad to see what has felt like the rise and fall of Kelsea Ballerini. Every single after "Yeah Boy" aside from "Miss Me More" has been a horrible choice up until now with HITB. Since she was such a radio bond-afire in her debut era, these last two eras just haven't felt as impactful. I really like the kelsea album and think it deserves a nomination. I also think Kelsea should be nominated for Female Vocalist. But, as we saw with the ACMs last year, she's absolutely not a shoe-in and definitely not now. For Female Vocalist, I would like to see Kacey NOT nominated, as much as I adore her, because she has not been as active this year as Carly Pearce, Ashley McBryde, or heck even one of the newbies Ingrid/Gabby.
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Post by The Brazilian Guy 🇧🇷 on Jul 13, 2020 11:47:02 GMT -5
Didn’t Kacey have the back half of her OWAW II Tour + her Christmas special? Radio hits aren’t everything; I think the category will look the same as last year. Didn’t Kacey have the back half of her OWAW II Tour + her Christmas special? Radio hits aren’t everything; I think the category will look the same as last year. I mean that tour ended in late September so it would only be a couple months of that plus the Christmas special, and while impressive I am very unsure if that is enough. It actually ended Oct. 25 (with her record-breaking Nashville concert). The entire second leg of her Oh, What a World Tour (30 dates, from July 26 to Oct 25) happened during the legibility period for the CMAs. That plus her Christmas special + Soundtrack (and other side projects, like the Frozen song, major festivals, etc...) I think that's more than enough for it to be considered a very successful year and warrant a nomination. Having said that, I think this past year was especially strong for women, so I won't be surprised if she misses on a nomination...
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austin
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Post by austin on Jul 13, 2020 12:02:12 GMT -5
Kacey will get nominated. I think Kelsea is more likely to be left out for Ashley than Kacey. Kelsea didn't have a good start to this era and she isn't a critics favorite/award winner really.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jul 13, 2020 19:50:02 GMT -5
Kacey will get nominated. I think Kelsea is more likely to be left out for Ashley than Kacey. Kelsea didn't have a good start to this era and she isn't a critics favorite/award winner really. Unfortunately I agree. Not a Kacey fan, but Kelsea just is at a disadvantage being on Black River when it comes to This stuff. Ashley will likely be promoted from New Artist to Female, and Carly becomes the leading female in the New Artist category.
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stanches2318
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Post by stanches2318 on Jul 13, 2020 22:57:10 GMT -5
Kacey will get nominated. I think Kelsea is more likely to be left out for Ashley than Kacey. Kelsea didn't have a good start to this era and she isn't a critics favorite/award winner really. Unfortunately I agree. Not a Kacey fan, but Kelsea just is at a disadvantage being on Black River when it comes to This stuff. Ashley will likely be promoted from New Artist to Female, and Carly becomes the leading female in the New Artist category. I think it'll be Gabby who will be number 5 instead of Kacey. I love Kacey music, but honestly what did she do this yr?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 13, 2020 23:00:06 GMT -5
Didn’t Kacey have the back half of her OWAW II Tour + her Christmas special? Radio hits aren’t everything; I think the category will look the same as last year. I mean that tour ended in late September so it would only be a couple months of that plus the Christmas special, and while impressive I am very unsure if that is enough. It actually ended Oct. 25 (with her record-breaking Nashville concert). The entire second leg of her Oh, What a World Tour (30 dates, from July 26 to Oct 25) happened during the legibility period for the CMAs. That plus her Christmas special + Soundtrack (and other side projects, like the Frozen song, major festivals, etc...) I think that's more than enough for it to be considered a very successful year and warrant a nomination. Having said that, I think this past year was especially strong for women, so I won't be surprised if she misses on a nomination...
Unfortunately I agree. Not a Kacey fan, but Kelsea just is at a disadvantage being on Black River when it comes to This stuff. Ashley will likely be promoted from New Artist to Female, and Carly becomes the leading female in the New Artist category. I think it'll be Gabby who will be number 5 instead of Kacey. I love Kacey music, but honestly what did she do this yr? I mean I feel like The Brazilian Guy 🇧🇷 response to me highlights what Kacey did within the eligibility period
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stanches2318
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Post by stanches2318 on Jul 13, 2020 23:00:33 GMT -5
On New Artist, I doubt both Ingrid and Gabby get in with them both being female and on Warner Bros. I think Morgan and Carly after IHYHN are locks. Carly will be the focus of the push from BMLG and Morgan has too much success to not consider him a lock. I think I'm going to go: Morgan Wallen Carly Pearce Jordan Davis Gabby Barrett Riley Green/Russell Dickerson Morgan or Carly are the likely winners - I would think Carly would be more of the critic's choice, but Morgan's massive success with Whiskey Glasses and Chasin' You might be too much to ignore. With a critic's fave (Ashley McBryde) getting the nod last year, I'd probably lean more towards Morgan making it happen. How is Carly eligible? she has two albums out My predictions are Gabby, Highwomen, Ingrid, Morgan, Riley
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stanches2318
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Post by stanches2318 on Jul 13, 2020 23:03:52 GMT -5
I wish we had a list of who was in consideration to be nominated in each category. That would make is easier to make predictions IMO.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 13, 2020 23:09:13 GMT -5
Um New Artist noms are essentially you are up for it twice and after that you are ineligible hence why Carly Pearce is eligible while Lauren Alaina is not
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jul 13, 2020 23:14:21 GMT -5
I wish we had a list of who was in consideration to be nominated in each category. That would make is easier to make predictions IMO. The CMA Nominee Showcase will probably be open when the vote for second ballot starts, just like the last few years. This year is July 31st.
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stanches2318
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Post by stanches2318 on Jul 13, 2020 23:16:10 GMT -5
Um New Artist noms are essentially you are up for it twice and after that you are ineligible hence why Carly Pearce is eligible while Lauren Alaina is not I just read the voting rules for each category. I thought if you had two albums out you couldn't be eligible. i guess i was wrong. lol
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jul 13, 2020 23:17:56 GMT -5
Um New Artist noms are essentially you are up for it twice and after that you are ineligible hence why Carly Pearce is eligible while Lauren Alaina is not I just read the voting rules for each category. I thought if you had two albums out you couldn't be eligible. i guess i was wrong. lol I mean Lauren Alaina was nominated for the award in 2018 so that kind of throws out the two album thing.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Jul 14, 2020 13:04:37 GMT -5
When was actually doing something in a year actually a requirement for nomination?
Anyways, I think EOTY will be interesting this year, as it's been a touring award, and so many of the big tours were cancelled, shut down early etc due to covid.
Luke C will probably walk away with several awards, but with the success of "The Bones" I think Maren will be the other big winner.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2020 13:40:35 GMT -5
On New Artist, I doubt both Ingrid and Gabby get in with them both being female and on Warner Bros. I think Morgan and Carly after IHYHN are locks. Carly will be the focus of the push from BMLG and Morgan has too much success to not consider him a lock. I think I'm going to go: Morgan Wallen Carly Pearce Jordan Davis Gabby Barrett Riley Green/Russell Dickerson Morgan or Carly are the likely winners - I would think Carly would be more of the critic's choice, but Morgan's massive success with Whiskey Glasses and Chasin' You might be too much to ignore. With a critic's fave (Ashley McBryde) getting the nod last year, I'd probably lean more towards Morgan making it happen. How is Carly eligible? she has two albums out My predictions are Gabby, Highwomen, Ingrid, Morgan, Riley Justin Moore had 3 albums out and like 5 top 10 hits before he won “new” artist one year. 🤣
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