Billboard Hot 100: 11/21/2020

[nak]

The #2 this week has the same amount of points as the #17 song 11 months ago according to TOTC. That’s insane.

[kingvavis]

Nov 10, 2020 21:49:28 GMT -5 nak said:

The #2 this week has the same amount of points as the #17 song 11 months ago according to TOTC. That’s insane.

That is notable, but they are probably using a week from December where the Christmas songs make the hot 100 appear stronger then they usually were during that period. I may be wrong though.

[iHype.]

Nov 10, 2020 21:49:28 GMT -5 nak said:

The #2 this week has the same amount of points as the #17 song 11 months ago according to TOTC. That’s insane.

Bit misleading.

That's when like 20 Holiday songs all had 20 million+ streams due to the full-throttle of December. It wasn't a normal week by any standards, and was a massive outlier even for 2019.

Same time period in 2019 compared to now.

Once you note that 2020's week has much less YouTube streams eligible to count (and radio was weighed down), the top 10 is basically pretty similar in strength.

[kingvavis]

^ Wasn't Simons's prediction from last year not taking into a account the current formula that was exposed during the Gooba incident? If so that means that his prediction from a year ago gave less points to the charting songs then in reality.

[gs]

Nov 10, 2020 23:42:29 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

^ Wasn't Simons's prediction from last year not taking into a account the current formula that was exposed during the Gooba incident? If so that means that his prediction from a year ago gave less points to the charting songs then in reality.

Yes. Heartless had ~185 points in the old formula but 220 in reality (with the current formula, which was the one actually used since July 2018). 

These are the points (from Simon) using the actual formula now:

#1. Circles 356
#2. Someone You Loved 342
#3. Senorita 307
#4. Truth Hurts 288
#5. No Guidance 260
#6. Memories 257
#7. Lose You To Love Me 256
#8. Good as Hell 250
#9. Panini 244
#10. Hot 241

So no, it's not "misleading", the charts are insanely weak even factoring in the changes.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 11/09/2020

1(=) Ariana Grande - positions 1,267,133 (+6,121)
2(+1) Bad Bunny, Jhay Cortez - Dakiti 1,126,629 (+120,610)
3(-1) Internet Money - Lemonade 1,054,441 (+40,398)
4(+1) Pop Smoke - For the Night 861,363 (+40,696)
5(-1) Ariana Grande - 34+35 838,888 (-6,635)
6(=) 24kGoldn - Mood 826,968 (+32,413)
7(=) Cardi B - WAP 798,601 (+27,591)
8(=) Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love 768,499 (+14,414)
9(=) Ariana Grande - pov 744,511 (+20,646)
10(=) Drake - Laugh Now Cry Later 736,906 (+38,424)

Other:
11(=) Justin Bieber - Lonely 689,002 (+2,580)
12(+1) Jack Harlow - Tyler Herro 664,271 (+32,310)
13(-1) The Kid LAROI - SO DONE 631,741 (-2,842)
14(=) Justin Bieber - Holy 587,270 (+4,563)
16(-1) Luke Combs - Forever After All 571,502 (-7,125)
17(=) Ariana Grande - motive 566,080 (-6,313)
18(+1) Ritt Momney - Put Your Records On 565,370 (+16,059)
20(=) Conan Gray - Heather 540,688 (+17,399)
21(-3) Maluma, The Weeknd - Hawái Remix 540,661 (-10,815)
23(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 521,510 (+11,849)
24(=) Tate McRae - you broke me first 518,241 (+16,347)
25(=) 24kGoldn - Mood Remix 508,503 (+16,179)
26(=) Clairo - Sofia 487,641 (+29,807)
27(+2) Polo G - Martin & Gina 478,408 (+28,947)
28(-1) Dua Lipa - Levitating 477,345 (+25,702)
31(+8) 21 Savage - Runnin 457,975 (+39,036)
33(=) Machine Gun Kelly - my ex's best friend 442,513 (+8,916)
36(+2) Shawn Mendes - Wonder 433,404 (+14,267)
38(+5) 21 Savage - Mr. Right Now 425,181 (+25,515)
40(-3) Ariana Grande - just like magic 409,277 (-13,443)
41(=) King Von - Took Her to the O 408,965 (+1,934)
42(-6) Ariana Grande - off the table 408,282 (-14,502)
45(+1) DaBaby - PRACTICE 396,605 (+11,096)
46(-6) The Kid LAROI - ALWAYS DO 392,203 (-23,138)
49(-2) DDG - Moonwalking in the Calabasas 384,874 (+2,381)
51(+1) Ashnikko - Daisy 377,883 (+12,916)
52(-1) Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas is You 375,430 (+7,050)
59(-9) The Kid LAROI - TRAGIC 352,832 (-16,695)
61(+8) James Arthur - Train Wreck 346,260 (+17,379)
63(+4) CORPSE and Savage Ga$p - E-GIRLS ARE RUINING MY LIFE! 337,141 (+7,150)
64(-10) The Kid LAROI - WITHOUT YOU 335,933 (-24,052)
66(+5) Harry Styles - Golden 333,734 (+10,465)
69(+9) Miley Cyrus - Midnight Sky 325,540 (+17,103)
70(+30) CJ - Whoopty 324,876 (+51,058)
71(-3) Mike WiLL Made-It - What That Speed Bout!? 322,284 (-6,883)
73(-3) Luke Combs - Better Together 318,133 (-7,176)
77(+8) Jawsh 465, Jason Derulo - Savage Love 312,084 (+12,687)
79(+3) Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree 309,644 (+2,738)
81(-15) The Kid LAROI - F*CK YOU, GOODBYE 305,706 (-26,876)
85(-22) NAV - Young Wheezy 300,895 (-41,861)
86(+3) The Neighbourhood - Daddy Issues 298,938 (+13,228)
90(-33) King Von - The Code 292,319 (-61,959)
94(-3) Bobby Helm - Jingle Bell Rock 286,084 (+2,379)

105(+6) Joel Corry - Head & Heart 275,154 (+12,034)
108(-20) Trippie Redd - Weeeeee 270,962 (-18,769)
111(+2) Wham! - Last Christmas 269,444 (+6,460)
113(-9) Ariana Grande - Santa Tell Me 268,962 (-709)
114(-8) Andy Williams - It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 268,889 (+1,076)
115(+7) Fousheé - Deep End 266,627 (+10,023)
116(+3) Only The Family, King Von - Crazy Story 266,555 (+8,937)
125(+1) Michael Bublé - It's Beginning to Look a Lot like Christmas 257,705 (+3,549)
131(-23) NAV - Don't Need Friends 253,737 (-10,540)
136(+1) Jason Derulo - Take You Dancing 251,680 (+8,062)
147(-1) Maluma - Hawái 239,828 (+3,782)
185(-4) Kelly Clarkson - Underneath the Tree 211,703 (+5,051)

Total Streams for Mood: 1,335,471
Total Streams for Hawái: 780,489

Biggest Gains (50K+): Whoopty, Dakiti

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Btw now that Mood's gonna hold the radio for a few months it seems, how many weeks do y'all think it will be in the Top 10?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/11/11

1(=) 24kGoldn - Mood (feat. iann dior) 132.68(+0.34)
2(=) Gabby Barrett - I Hope (feat. Charlie Puth) 119.53(-0.36)
3(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 109.35(-1.54)
4(+1) Drake - Laugh Now Cry Later (feat. Lil Durk) 98.23(+0.37)
5(-1) Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 96.54(-1.33)
6(=) Surf Mesa - ily (i love you baby) [feat. Emilee] 94.01(-0.30)
7(+2) Ava Max - Kings & Queens 91.97(+1.66)
8(=) Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy 90.82(+0.08)
9(-2) Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) 89.84(-1.30)
10(=) Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 79.89(-1.13) -

11(=) Justin Bieber - Holy (feat. Chance the Rapper) 70.66(+1.23)
14(+1) BTS - Dynamite 63.67(+0.70)
18(=) Kane Brown, Swae Lee, Khalid - Be Like That 55.63(+0.98)
25(+1) Ariana Grande - positions 46.04(+1.19)
33(=) Parker McCollum - Pretty Heart 39.61(+0.79)
40(=) Internet Money & Gunna - Lemonade (feat. Don Toliver & NAV) 35.18(+0.74)
41(+1) Jhené Aiko - B.S. (feat. H.E.R.) 33.87(+0.83)
55(+2) Pop Smoke - For The Night (feat. Lil Baby & DaBaby) 25.32(+1.06)
-(-) Ariana Grande - 34+35 10.69(+0.79)
-(-) Foo Fighters - Shame Shame 7.75(+1.17)
-(-) Eric Church - Hell of a View 3.83(+0.96)
-(-) Becky G. & Ozuna - No Drama 1.55(+1.06) +

[nak]

Omg i love Fact Checking thanks yall

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Kind of random, but Good as You is #2 at iTunes.

[fridayteenage]

Nov 11, 2020 10:10:28 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Kind of random, but Good as You is #2 at iTunes.

Just like last week, it's another The Voice bomb. Easy these days with how tiny sales are.

Tennessee Whiskey #7
If The World Was Ending #9
for the same reason.

[king_billboard_100]

Ava Max, Kings & Queens is #1 on iTunes. Could it outpeak Sweet by Psycho?🤔

[chartfreak]

Mariah will be #1 soon on iTunes, considering how low sales are.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Random Fact

Only 5 songs were on chart when Blinding Lights hit the #1 (04/04/20):

#7 Adore You
#30 I Hope
#55 Roses
#57 Whats Poppin
#77 Before You Go

and Blinding Lights (#4) is still outperforming them:

#5 I Hope
#14 Before You Go
#24 Whats Poppin
#37 Adore You
#44 Roses

[iHype.]

Nov 11, 2020 4:17:08 GMT -5 gs said:

Nov 10, 2020 23:42:29 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

^ Wasn't Simons's prediction from last year not taking into a account the current formula that was exposed during the Gooba incident? If so that means that his prediction from a year ago gave less points to the charting songs then in reality.

Yes. Heartless had ~185 points in the old formula but 220 in reality (with the current formula, which was the one actually used since July 2018). 

These are the points (from Simon) using the actual formula now:

#1. Circles 356
#2. Someone You Loved 342
#3. Senorita 307
#4. Truth Hurts 288
#5. No Guidance 260
#6. Memories 257
#7. Lose You To Love Me 256
#8. Good as Hell 250
#9. Panini 244
#10. Hot 241

So no, it's not "misleading", the charts are insanely weak even factoring in the changes.

There's a big difference between the #2 having as much points as #5 (with two normal relative weeks compared), than the #2 having as much points as #17 (by comparing a completely rare outlier week to a normal week).


Also, those 2019 numbers still include all YouTube streams (and have higher adjusted radio figures). Just doesn't make sense imo to compare raw points when 1 scenario has lower points due to reasons fully out of control, that don't reflect whether the song is actually being less consumed. All songs will naturally get less video streams because they just simply count less now, even if they ideally were getting the same non-UGC/non-official streams as hits in prior year.


Nearly every single song will get less weekly points than (2015-2019) simply because formula adjustments that require songs to get more popularity in order to get as many points as before.

A song now has to get 5 million video streams without UGC/unofficial to have 5 million video streams count on charts. A song now has to get 50,000 sales without non-shipped bundles to have 50,000 sales count. A song now has to get 80 million radio audience with much more spins than prior, because radio audience per spin is adjusted down. A song now has to get higher ratio of paid streams to get similar streaming points as a pre-2018 song due to the fact free streams are now weighed down considerably less in comparison.

So when you compare raw points, songs from today will be disadvantaged as they naturally have to actually do much better in every area to get the same results as prior. Getting 250 points in 2020 is not easy as getting 250 points in prior years, and it's not because songs magically got less popular or competition got weaker. It's because a formula now counts so many things much less. Not to say some songs aren't comparatively still doing weak at the moment, but comparing of raw points only makes it naturally look worse than reality, because songs with similar popularity are bound to get less points now.

[andrebra]

I’m not sure what thread to ask this in, but why is Gabby Barrett problematic? I tried looking stuff up but I couldn’t find anything and I’m just curious.

[korbel16]

Nov 11, 2020 12:32:49 GMT -5 andrebra said:

I’m not sure what thread to ask this in, but why is Gabby Barrett problematic? I tried looking stuff up but I couldn’t find anything and I’m just curious.

she doesn’t stand with BLM And also said nothing during the peak of the whole movement in June and is a trump supporter

[wavey.]

Nov 11, 2020 12:32:49 GMT -5 andrebra said:

I’m not sure what thread to ask this in, but why is Gabby Barrett problematic? I tried looking stuff up but I couldn’t find anything and I’m just curious.

I think she expressed shes for Trump and things like that.

[whales10268]

Nov 11, 2020 12:32:49 GMT -5 andrebra said:

I’m not sure what thread to ask this in, but why is Gabby Barrett problematic? I tried looking stuff up but I couldn’t find anything and I’m just curious.

Yeah slightly less than half the country is “problematic”.

[waluigionascooter]

Nov 11, 2020 12:32:49 GMT -5 andrebra said:

I’m not sure what thread to ask this in, but why is Gabby Barrett problematic? I tried looking stuff up but I couldn’t find anything and I’m just curious.

There were plenty of tweets found of her being vocally anti-BLM, pro-life, supporting Trump, pretty much your typical right-wing evangelical.

[waluigionascooter]

Could it debut? (It would have to be over #50 to be eligible right?)

[rainygirl]

Nov 11, 2020 10:28:52 GMT -5 king_billboard_100 said:

Ava Max, Kings & Queens is #1 on iTunes. Could it outpeak Sweet by Psycho?🤔

it’s not number 1 on the iTunes Store , but number 1 on Kworb . Which one is more accurate ?

[notgoodenglish]

King Bad Bunny number 2 on US Spotify!! and number one global !! Could be the first full spanish song to hit number one on billboard?? lets make it happen !

pd: oops i forgot about La Bamba, what a classic !

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Kworb seemed to be a glitch. Anyway, a new Thomas Rhett song released today is currently #1.

[gs]

Nov 11, 2020 11:28:05 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Nov 11, 2020 4:17:08 GMT -5 gs said:

Yes. Heartless had ~185 points in the old formula but 220 in reality (with the current formula, which was the one actually used since July 2018). 

These are the points (from Simon) using the actual formula now:

#1. Circles 356
#2. Someone You Loved 342
#3. Senorita 307
#4. Truth Hurts 288
#5. No Guidance 260
#6. Memories 257
#7. Lose You To Love Me 256
#8. Good as Hell 250
#9. Panini 244
#10. Hot 241

So no, it's not "misleading", the charts are insanely weak even factoring in the changes.

There's a big difference between the #2 having as much points as #5 (with two normal relative weeks compared), than the #2 having as much points as #17 (by comparing a completely rare outlier week to a normal week).


Also, those 2019 numbers still include all YouTube streams (and have higher adjusted radio figures). Just doesn't make sense imo to compare raw points when 1 scenario has lower points due to reasons fully out of control, that don't reflect whether the song is actually being less consumed. All songs will naturally get less video streams because they just simply count less now, even if they ideally were getting the same non-UGC/non-official streams as hits in prior year.


Nearly every single song will get less weekly points than (2015-2019) simply because formula adjustments that require songs to get more popularity in order to get as many points as before.

A song now has to get 5 million video streams without UGC/unofficial to have 5 million video streams count on charts. A song now has to get 50,000 sales without non-shipped bundles to have 50,000 sales count. A song now has to get 80 million radio audience with much more spins than prior, because radio audience per spin is adjusted down. A song now has to get higher ratio of paid streams to get similar streaming points as a pre-2018 song due to the fact free streams are now weighed down considerably less in comparison.

So when you compare raw points, songs from today will be disadvantaged as they naturally have to actually do much better in every area to get the same results as prior. Getting 250 points in 2020 is not easy as getting 250 points in prior years, and it's not because songs magically got less popular or competition got weaker. It's because a formula now counts so many things much less. Not to say some songs aren't comparatively still doing weak at the moment, but comparing of raw points only makes it naturally look worse than reality, because songs with similar popularity are bound to get less points now.

But the #2 has fewer points than the #10 not #5 in this case?

For most songs in the top 10, the extra points from YouTube gave about 10-25 points on average, which makes a difference but it's nowhere near the current levels of weakness. So considering the YouTube changes, the #10-#15 in the weakest period of last year would be approximately equal to the #2 today. Yes, the tweet used #17 for effect, but it's still bad.

Also considering the radio recalibration doesn't make sense, because there are legitimately fewer people listening to radio, meaning the weakness is justified because the song isn't being consumed as much with that metric.

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 11, 2020 14:42:11 GMT -5 notgoodenglish said:

King Bad Bunny number 2 on US Spotify!! and number one global !! Could be the first full spanish song to hit number one on billboard?? lets make it happen !

pd: oops i forgot about La Bamba, what a classic !

With a late push, Dakiti could take the #2 spot on the Hot 100 for this week. The margin between #2 and #6 (LNCL, BL, positions, I Hope, and Dakiti) is razor thin. I have them all between 195-205 points.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

The CMAs are tonight I don't expect them to influence the charts too much. To note, a couple of the announced performers, Florida Georgia Line and Lee Brice tested positive for covid-19 and therefore won't be performing.

[frenchfry]

Nov 11, 2020 13:08:06 GMT -5 whales10268 said:

Nov 11, 2020 12:32:49 GMT -5 andrebra said:

I’m not sure what thread to ask this in, but why is Gabby Barrett problematic? I tried looking stuff up but I couldn’t find anything and I’m just curious.

Yeah slightly less than half the country is “problematic”.

Yes

[M5]

Nov 8, 2020 22:23:26 GMT -5 dann said:

IM SO EXCITED

Yeeesssss please stream this. Lets make another smash hit for the legend himself.

Love u nas x. Ur so iconic bro

[spoons]

Nov 10, 2020 0:17:34 GMT -5 starlord said:

Post promoted snippet of Sunflower, Circles first on show and even last album announcement. So fingers crossed. 

look like post is bringing medieval pop to 2021.

Seasons change and thou love went cold